Category Archives: 01. Site Features

Fun with PECOTA Comps

Other Stuff

Yesterday my Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide arrived.  I highly recommend it, the e-book is a bit cheaper, but I am partial to hard copies of prospect books to grab at any point.  You should also buy it to support the great work the BP prospect team does including two of our new writers CJ Wittmann and Chris King.  But enough of that.

The BP guide includes three comparable players for each prospect.  They represent a range of outcomes, and aren’t always accurate due to sample sizes and other weird statistical things.  These comparables come from PECOTA and I have also included the top 10 PECOTA player comparables overall from BP’s website for each Top 10 prospect. (as well as 2014 MLB projection, because they are fun)  These could change by next week as players change how they are, but keep in mind that PECOTA has a lot of data to work with and the more data it is given, the more accurate it becomes.

1. Maikel Franco – 3B (.255/.282/.427)
Handbook: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores
Top 10: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo, Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, Aderlin Rodriguez, Matt Dominguez, Edison Rincon Continue reading Fun with PECOTA Comps →

Box Score Recap – 4/11/2014

Box Score Recap

Sometimes, especially early in the year, and especially on nights where there’s rain in Pennsylvania early in the year, you can look through a whole day of box scores and find about zero interesting things to talk about. And so you click on one of the guys and look at their stats and hope to become inspired. And sometimes that doesn’t work, and you write a limerick:

There once was a man from Aragua
Whose family was called Arteaga
He gave up one walk
Four runs and six knock(s)
And couldn’t inspire this blogga

Enjoy the weekend!

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 4/11/2014 →

Box Score Recap – 4/10/2014

Box Score Recap

I could call last night’s performance by Phillippe Aumont a success, but he did give up a walk and three hits in 2.1 IP. He didn’t allow a run, but he allowed one of two inherited runners score. I’ll call it a push. Maikel Franco‘s hit in two straight and walked in three straight. I’ll call that a good sign and we’ll see how it plays out.

Hoby Milner left the Reading game in the fifth after taking a liner off his pitching hand/forearm. He threw a couple warm-ups and they pulled him, according to this Penn Live article. He was cruising along pretty nicely at that point, having given up just one hit and striking out three in 4.2IP. Kelly Dugan went deep and Cameron Perkins continued his hot start – he’s OPSing .927 on the young season.

Not much to report out of CLR except Kevin Walter had his second straight scoreless relief appearance to start the year. And LKW hitters managed just three doubles off of Hagerstown pitchers, including Nats’ top prospect Lucas Giolito, who struck out six, walked one and allowed just one hit in five innings. Tyler Viza got hit around some after a nice start – he did strike out five in five+ innings, versus just one walk, and he retired the first seven men in a row, and 15 out of the first 18. It all came apart in the sixth inning, however, as he didn’t record an out and allowed four runs.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 4/10/2014 →

Minor League Ball Phillies Top 20

Prospect Rankings

Yesterday John Sickels of Minor League Ball released his Phillies Top 20 prospects.  The list was created with the knowledge of preseason results so it does differ from other lists.  The full list can be found here.

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. J.P. Crawford
  3. Jesse Biddle
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Carlos Tocci
  6. Aaron Altherr
  7. Kelly Dugan
  8. Dylan Cozens
  9. Cord Sandberg
  10. Ken Giles
  11. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
  12. Ethan Martin
  13. Cesar Hernandez
  14. Severino Gonzalez
  15. Zach Green
  16. Shane Watson
  17. Cameron Rupp
  18. Tommy Joseph
  19. Mario Hollands
  20. Luis Encarnacion

Continue reading Minor League Ball Phillies Top 20 →

Peter Lavin Deserves Some Love

Scouting Reports

I’ve been around the Phillies complex regularly for almost four years now and have a pretty solid grasp of their system, especially their rookie ball team in the Gulf Coast League. That’s where I first got eyes on Peter Lavin back in 2011.

Before you get too excited, Lavin is not a kid that is going to shoot up prospect lists and become a saving grace for this farm system. He is a kid who plays the game hard everyday, is easy to root for and deserves a little fanfare. Too often people get all caught up in what a player can’t do instead of looking at what he can do, so let’s take a look at what Lavin CAN do. Continue reading Peter Lavin Deserves Some Love →

Box Score Recap – 4/9/2014

Box Score Recap

Cesar Jimenez and Hector Neris threw a seven inning shutout to beat Blue Jays’ #2 and consensus Top 50-60 overall prospect Marcus Stroman, who struck out eight Pigs in six innings, but walked five. Cameron Rupp didn’t manage a home run. Not sure why he just wouldn’t go ahead and hit one. Maybe it’s some kind of strategy for the next time they face Buffalo. Lulling them into complacency. Smart.

Reading’s staff did a nice job, with Severino Gonzalez going 7 strong innings and Nefi Ogando and Ken Giles finishing up. Giles has now recorded 10 outs on the year, 9 by K. If you’re into that sort of thing.

Brian Pointer looking good in four games thus far. Not sure why he’s not playing every day at this point. Zach Green has two doubles, and Mark Leiter put up another nice line in a losing effort – 2R/4H/1HR/0BB/5K in 7 IP. Charting shows him throwing seven different pitches. Wonder if there’s some overlap there. From Fangraphs’ Nathaniel Stoltz:

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 4/9/2014 →

Hot or Not

Other Stuff

Our first look around the organization at who is “hot” and who is “not” over the past week. Look for this article on Thursday or Friday morning each week.  For hitters to qualify, they must have 12AB’s over the last week.

A few quick points: Gotta like the way Crawford and Cozens started in Lakewood…Is it too early to be concerned about Franco, Joseph and Tocci, I think so….Severino Gonzalez with the best results of any starter in the organization last week without the best “stuff”…Dominant is an understatement for the week Kenny Giles had…Kyle Simon was unexpectedly awful in each of his outings for Lehigh Valley…Interesting that Luis Garcia has been anointed the closer in Lehigh Valley for now, with a very good week for the former barber/mover.

Hot Hitters: Edgar Duran (.500); Brock Stassi (.429); Peter Lavin (.417); Brian Pointer (.385); Willians Astudillo (.385); Carlos Alonso (.375, 4RS, 4RBI, SB); JP Crawford(.368, 4RS, HR, SB); Cameron Perkins (.333); Dylan Cozens (.321, 4RBI, 2SB)

Not Hot Hitters: ALbert Cartwright (.000, 0-13); Willie Carmona (.050); Justin Parr (.067); Leandro Castro (.091); Maikel Franco (.111); Steve Susdorf (.111); Tommy Joseph (.118); Carlos Tocci (.143); Matt Tolbert (.154); Zach Green (.160) Continue reading Hot or Not →

Box Score Recap – 4/8/2014

Box Score Recap

Cameron Rupp did it again. Four HR in 4 games. Can I call him “Babe Rupp” without you all booing me off the site and into a shame spiral that ends with me face down in a ditch somewhere with an empty gallon of vodka?  No? Ok, then, I won’t call him that.

Jesse Biddle had a good night, earned runs not withstanding. Tommy Joseph went deep and ditto Art Charles. Phillippe Aumont walked four batters, which led me to assert on Twitter that Aumont is French for self-parody. And hey, look, I just did it again.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 4/8/2014 →

Box Score Recap – 4/7/2014

Box Score Recap

With two rain-outs and a scheduled off-day, only Lakewood was in action Monday. The bullpen couldn’t hold two leads, as Cody Forsythe gave up three runs in the ninth, and Tyler Buckley gave up two in his second inning of work in the 11th. All of this couldn’t obscure J.P. Crawford‘s 4-6, 2B, HR, 4R, or Dylan Cozens’ 4-6, 2B, 3 RBI. We’re going to be talking about that Lakewood lineup all year.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 4/7/2014 →