Box Score Recap – 4/14/2014

Severino Gonzalez with what looks like his worst start of the year, 3R/6H/3BB/4K in 5 IP. Ken Giles remains dominant, as it took him just 13 pitches to strike out the side in order in the ninth for his fifth save in a row. He’s allowed just three base runners in six IP on the year.

Cameron Perkins with his first AA homerun. He’s OPSing nearly 1.200 now, and has 10 XBH in 44 trips to the plate. Brian Pointer also remains hot for CLR – he’s OPSing over 1.000 now after a 2-3 with 2BB and a triple. Both numbers are surely sustainable and not at all subject to any mention of small sample sizes. No, sir.

Mark Leiter Jr. got the victory for Lakewood, despite a less than stellar line that reads 4R/7H/1BB/8K over 6IP. Carlos Tocci had four hits and stole a base in that contest, while J.P. Crawford was 2-4 with a walk, a steal and three runs scored.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB. http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20140414

4-14-14 boxscores

36 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 4/14/2014

  1. General caveat: “Past results are not indicative of future performance.” Cam Perkins is Hot! Hot! Hot! Someone better get a fire extinguisher for Kenny Giles. Duran is screaming “Look at me.” Pointer and Lavin continue to impress. Astudillo continues his diminutive K rate and he hit a HR last night. I know he’s a bowling ball or fireplug look-alike but …damn.

    Ethan Stewart is back to his old ways… “I’m walkin’ to New Orleans.” He’s given up 8 runs but only 2 are earned. That’s earned by baseball’s rules but I don’t tend to count them as unearned if the error occurs early in the inning and then you can’t get anybody out after that. Part of being a good pitcher is to bail your team out if they make a mistake.

    Larry Greene may never hit above .240 but the dingers have to be flying out of every park for him to continue to be a prospect. There is little sign of life on that front. I read an article the other day, while waiting for my car to be serviced. In it they asked a scout, at least I think he was a scout, what he’s seeing from high school prospects. His answer was lack of power. That might explain the Phillies grabbing Greene early in the draft a few years ago. Find a guy with huge raw power and make him a 35 HR guy. Greene looks like a case of — took a shot and lost.

    1. I am a pitching coach for my local HS team (Ewing High School, Ewing NJ) and legion team as well (Ewing Post 314). The issue w power is be the bats being used now might as well be wood. There’s no pop coming off of these bats (which I like, it makes a hitter stand out when it used to be the bats that would aid in that). So all the “power” that used to be around isn’t anymore and the power that is around now is true power

  2. Not necessarily bad to see Severino Gonzalez get hit around a little. Lets see how he responds. Any velocity reports would be great.

    After last night painful bullpen loss by Phillies expect their brass to discuss bringing Giles up – who is making hamburger meat out of AA ball.

    1. IIRC, the stadium gun had Sev topping out at 91 last night, however, his fastball was primarily 87-89. I can never tell if the stadium gun is calibrated accurately, but for comparison’s sake, Kenny G was topping out at 99 (hit 3x’s).

      This was my first time seeing several of the players live, so here are a few amateur observations:

      – Everything Perkins hit, he hit hard. He was fooled pretty good on the K (81 mph change) but put out nice swings on each other AB. Sadly, just about everyone in our section of the stadium missed his HR. A fan caught his previous foul ball in his beer and we were too amused watching him pound it. I’m not a fan of stat-based player comparisons but body style and swing had us both thinking “Werth-esque.”

      – Tommy Joseph was another guy who hit the ball hard each time. Both he and Perkins had that “sound” off the bat that grabbed your attention.

      – Sev gave up a number of hard hit balls, particularly when he was up in the zone. He was able to work his way out of a few jams but he was lucky to come away w/the line that he did. That being said, he showed some effective off-speed pitches and had little difficulty in the innings when his command was on.

      – Giles. Daggone. FB sat between 93-99 (usually 96-97), typically higher velocities were up in the zone. Dropped a pretty off-speed pitch (a slider?) at the knees for a strike to keep the hitter honest. We’ve attended squirrels games at the diamond over the past 5 years and never seen someone throw that kind of gas that consistently.

      -Mike

      1. Mike you mention a nice off speed pitch, does he go mostly fastball?? does Perkins field well, and how does he run, I have notice not many steals, and has I believe more thrown-out stealing then made in his career, I was curious if it was lack of speed or bad jumps,

        1. Perkins is a big strong guy but I wouldn’t call his fielding style elegant. He’ll probably need to stay in LF although his arm appears pretty good. Last year and this year so far he’s shown that he hits the ball very hard with a level swing that produces line drives. He just needs to learn how to turn a few more of those swings into homers and we’ll have a legit prospect in him.

  3. Every year, Reading’s ballpark makes some heretofore anonymous hitter look like the second coming of Mickey Mantle. Let’s calm down on Perkins a little bit. That said, he was more of a real prospect to start with than guys like Ruf and Rizzotti, so it’s worth paying attention. I’m just saying: Reading does funny things to hitters.

    Anyone at the Lakewood game? Were those Tocci hits real hits, or BABIP specials?

    1. Since 2010….as a freshman at Purdue…Perkins has hit at every stop along the way thru collegiate ball into professional..
      So the hit tool is not a surprise.
      And if he gets promoted later this summer, and can continue the hitting against AAA pitching, then I guess I become a real believer.

    2. And the converse is also true. Every year or two it looks like some guy will never become a “good pitcher” because he struggles in Reading and then, as soon as he does even marginally well at this level, his career as a pitcher takes off and he positively sails through AAA (Worley, Buchanan, Hamels, Rosenberg, Diekman – and just watch, this year it will be Giles, assuming he even makes a stop at AAA, which is now unclear to me as he’s just playing that well).

    3. He has 1 home run. If it’s a good park for HR, then it should be a poor park for singles and doubles bc it’s smaller, right? That should mean that his hot start is even more impressive, correct?

    1. Perkins is one guy I’d really like to see in LHV. I’m not sure how far he will go but he certainly has my attention. The two biggest issues with him will be power and plate discipline. Even though he’s not on any kind of homer binge, he sure is racking up doubles and that’s a good sign. I would like to see more walks, but it’s pretty difficult to criticize the guy right now, eh?

  4. I don’t see any reason not to be excited for Cam. He has hit every where he has ever been despite knocks on his swing. So until a level proves to be to much for him why does it have to be the ballpark.

    Maybe just maybe the guy is an above average big leaguer we look back on and say wow I didn’t see that coming.

  5. Up until his wrist injury last season, Perkins was statistically comparable to Dugan and Franco with an insane amount of doubles. He should be fun to watch this season.

    1. Results like that are a sure sign that a model is flawed. It basically curve fits the data fed to it, but can’t accurately predict outside the range of the original data modeled. It does make Giles a unique reliever, though. Bring him in when you’re one run down in the top of the ninth, and he brings you to bat tied.

      1. I don’t know that this is proof the model is flawed. Perhaps that’s proof that the sample size for Ken Giles’ season is far too small to be meaningful. I don’t know how many IP or PAA it takes to make FIP significant.

        1. Fully sound models don’t spit out ridiculous answers for any valid data input. Small sample size should still yield a rational result. When the answers go infinite, negative, or into the realm of unbelievably big, that means you have a model that works for the range of data on which the modeling was done, but there is a fundamental flaw.

      2. Brad’s right about sample size – I would add this: the model breaks down on extreme results. That ties in with the sample size issue, since extreme results (at least extreme enough to be problematic) don’t occur, even for very good pitchers, with a sufficient sample size.

        Should we care that the model breaks down for extreme results? No. The results which fall into the range of actual performance (including very good and very bad pitchers over a substantial sample size, the model is very good. Good in the sense of being predictive – that is, fip and xfip are both better predictors of future ERA than is ERA itself.

        Now, we DO know that xfip and fip tend to over or underestimate the ERA of certain types of pitchers – knuckleballers most significantly. But that’s a separate problem, and for most pitchers fip and xfip are going to give a much more accurate predictor of future performance than ERA.

      3. Model isn’t flawed. In practical sense it is 0.00, but if you were to add that to an equal sample size that was say a 1.00 FIP, his FIP would be 0.53, so the FIP is calculated correctly. It pretty much says that it is virtually impossible given what we know of batted ball data to score a run when you put 5 balls in play and have only 2 walks over 6 innings.

        1. So you’re saying Giles won’t go 0.00 ERA for the year? I don’t know, Matt. He throws like a hundred miles an hour. That’s pretty fast.

      4. I’ll echo others’ observations- I don’t see it as a huge flaw in the model when the result doesn’t make sense for a small but extreme start. I’m glad Giles is off to such a ridiculous start, and mostly I’ll interpret it as proof that he’s capable of dominant stretches. Now we just have to hope he doesn’t go Carlos Marmol the rest of the time.

        1. Not a huge flaw in the sense that the model is still good over the range of input data for which it was developed/tested. It does speak to a basic or theoretical flaw, however.

      1. Negative XRays, and he says he’ll be back in a week, from yesterday, maybe (can’t recall if it was Monday or Sunday).

  6. With Adams coming around to stabilize the pen more after a few appearances, there is still a need for at least one more addition…which IMO will be Giles IF he keeps up this sequence for another several weeks.

    IMO, he won’t need to go to LV; rather he would pass “GO” and be called up directly to the big club. When you throw that kind of relief, along with the greatly improved command as here, plus a secondary pitch….there is no need to stop by AAA on the way up.

    IMO, that is particularly true of relievers who are used in the final innings and not expected to throw more innings.

    The pen–assuming Adams can recapture his prior effectiveness–would then be a strength for this team. It could be a key to a better season than we have anticipated…

  7. I think Brock Stassi is the most underrated prospect in the organization I never hear his name come up on any of the prospect list or on the blogs meanwhile he continues to get hits and plays a big part in his team getting wins

    1. Thanks for your observation Mrs. Stassi. Just kidding. Brock is a great player to have in the organization but his chances of seeing a major league ballpark are slim and none. He’s got good size at 6’2″ 190 and he can play 2 positions: 1B and LF. He looks adequate as a fielder. After that, there’s a lot of other stuff that doesn’t make him noteworthy. He’s 24 in AA but being a college guy, that is expected. His triple slash through 3+ seasons is .262/.333/.358 with an Ops of .692. He has a total of 8 HRs over that time frame. That won’t come close to cutting it as a 1B or LF. He’s hot right now. Enjoy it. Right now I wouldn’t even put him in the AAAA category.

      Most interesting stat is he has 17 SB with only 3 CS. I’m not sure what to make of that. I’m not sure if it’s an indicator of speed or smart base running. I would think that if he had speed he’d be in CF.

Comments are closed.