Hot or Not

Week number two in the books and a look back at the time period of April 10-16…Some quick notes…Cameron Perkins keeps the conversation going strong with continued production…Lakewood prospects really struggling at the plate… The Reading bullpen had a very good week, led by Kenny Giles.  I would give him another half dozen or so appearances and then get him moved up….Anyone beginning to notice Cody Forsythe?…Tyson Gillies doing what he does.

Hot Hitters: Cameron Perkins (.524, 7R, HR, 7RBI, SB); Cesar Hernandez (.474, 5R); Willians Astudillo (.471, HR, 4RBI); Angelo Mora (.385); Albert Cartwright (.353), Aaron Altherr (.313, 4R, SB)

Not Hot Hitters: Andrew Pullin (.056); Anthony Phillips (.077); Dylan Cozens (.130); Justin Parr (.133); Zach Green (.136); Ronny Cedeno(.143); Tyson Gillies (.154); Maikel Franco (.167); Samuel Hiciano (.167); JP Crawford (.174)

Hot Starters: Miguel Nunez (2 starts, 13IP 15H 3ER 0BB 10K); Tyler Viza (2 starts, 12IP 11H 4ER 1BB 8K);  Luis Paulino (5IP 3H 1ER 0BB 3K)

Not Hot Starters: Shane Martin (6IP 10H 6ER 0bb 2K); Jon Prosinski (2 starts, 11.2IP 16H 9ER 1BB 7K); Ranfi Casimiro (2.2IP 4H 3ER 2BB 3K)

Hot Relievers: Kenny Giles (3.2IP 1H 0ER 2BB 7K 2SV);Brad Lincoln (4IP 3H 0ER 0BB 4K); Kyle Simon (3IP 0H 0ER 0BB 4K); Cody Forsythe (3.1IP 0H 0ER 0BB 3K, 2SV);  Austin Wright (4.1IP 4H 0ER 3BB 3K); Colton Murray (3.2IP 2H 0ER 0BB 3K); Keivi Rojas (3.1IP 1H 0ER 0BB 2K); Jay Johnson (2.2IP 1H 0ER 0BB 3K, SV); Julio Reyes (2.1IP 3H 0ER 0BB 2K); Lee Ridenhour (2IP 0H 0ER 0BB 0K)

Not Hot Relievers: Neifi Ogando (1IP 3H 4ER 0BB 1K); Mike Nesseth (4IP 8H 6ER 1BB 2K); Jeb Stefan (2.2IP 3H 3ER 1BB 3K); Kevin Walter (2.2IP 2H 2ER 1BB 0K); Ryan O’Sullivan (2.1IP 5H 2ER 1BB 1K); Tyler Knigge (3.1IP 4H 3ER 2BB 2K); Jeremy Horst (2.1IP 2H 2ER 3BB 3K); Lino Martinez (1.2IP 2H 2ER 1BB 4K)

35 thoughts on “Hot or Not

    1. I find comments like this funny. Our drafting got us 3 HoF pitchers (2 of which were in their prime) and an All Star outfielder in the past few years. Do those guys count?

    1. A few guys named Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt. And the all-star RF was Pence. And I think it takes “A” level prospects to get those guys. So, yes, I think we have drafted well. Certainly we haven’t nailed every pick and have our share of bad picks. But so does every team. 2010 and 2011 look like bad drafts, but we have certainly drafted top prospects:

      – Drabek was an “A” prospect
      – D’Arnaud was an “A” prospect
      – Dom Brown was an “A” prospect
      – Singleton is an “A” prospect
      – JP Crawford is an “A” prospect
      – Jason Knapp was an “A” prospect
      – Michael Taylor and Villar were a “B+” prospect
      – Biddle is a “B+” prospect
      – Without injury, Roman Quinn is a “B+” prospect

      I sense from your 4 question marks that you disagree.

  1. It’s more than fair to call the current group of scouts into question. Despite not having many high picks in the last 5-7 years they should have produced more talent. 2012 was crucial for them and thus far it is not looking so good.

    1. i am ignorant on the 2012 draft. name players taken after 40 that are now considered top prospects. and you can’t ding them for Watson’s arm injury

      1. I think you are missing the point. I’m one that always says this is more luck than skill. So what that Watson is hurt that is part of it.

        And nice attempt at humor with the “I’m ignorant” ploy I usually like to use that one but the fact is you can be sure there is someone that came after Watson/Gueller/Cozens that might want to make you have a do over.

        I am not trying to single out the Phillies every club has their misses. But as you so eloquently stated above we moved a bunch of perceived talent to acquire MLB talent you need to replenish.

        Scouting is not just drafting scouting is also who I am getting back in the Lee Deal, The Pence Deal, and the Victorino deal.

        1. i wasn’t trying to be humorous. I was asking you to back up your statement. You said they had a horrible 2012 draft. Well, that is relative to what they passed. And I am not knowledgable about what they passed on that had an impact. And you sounded confident that they passed on good players. So who were they?

    2. That is really a lack of understanding of the draft and development system, and the expectations that come from that. Lets take the Cardinals the “Gold Standard” that everyone keeps coming up with. Here are some 1st Round picks of the past 6-7 years Pete Kozma, Brett Wallace, Zach Cox, Seth Blair, Steve Bean, Patrick Wisdom, Tyrell Jenkins (could still be very good, but so good Watson)
      They have hit on Lance Lynn (career 4.3 WAR), Shelby Miller (huge overslot bonus), Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty (still a prospect, but I saw him last week and he is legit), and Michael Wacha

      From 2008 to 2013 the Cardinals had 14 1st round picks 8 in the Top 30, during that same time the Phillies had 7 1st round picks and 3 in the Top 30. I will repeat it forever, you need to get talent early in drafts. Sometimes you nail a draft and in 2009 the Cardinals got Rosenthal, Kelly, Carpenter, and Adams after the first. And while none have been Carpenter yet, the Phillies brought in Worley, Cosart, Pettibone, and Gose after the first round in 2008.

      Yes the Cardinals have turned out better talent, but the odds of better talent are so much better with twice as many picks. I will take the Cardinals org everyday over the Phillies, but if you are blaming the Phillies scouts you are incredibly off base.

      1. When I say call them into question that doesn’t mean blame them. That means shine a light on them. Start asking questions. Maybe they are good at what they do, maybe they are not, maybe they have just been incredibly unlucky…

        Either way I don’t know an organization or a business that doesn’t begin to look at its areas of weakness and explore ways to strengthen them do you?

        Now that’s not to say they need to tell us what the hay they are doing about it or try to defend Marti Wolever or whomever makes these calls but they should acknowledge a run of bad luck exists and they need to change their luck.

        Everybody is accountable is all I’m saying. Do some real digging and find out who liked Larry Green, Who Liked Hewitt not to flame or embarrass them but let’s get an idea on who has who’s ear. We are so quick to blame Amaro for everything bad with this team but I’m willing to be bet the biggest problem is with a person above him and a handful below him.

      2. Well yeah, the proper point of comparison isn’t the Cardinals but the next player taken. And my suspicion is that the Phillies don’t fare too well by that metric.

        Here are their first picks since 2008:

        Anthony Hewitt vs. Christian Friedrich
        Kelly Dugan vs. J.R. Murphy
        Jesse Biddle vs. Zach Lee
        Larry Greene vs. Jackie Bradley
        Shane Watson vs. Lance McCullers
        J.P. Crawford vs. Tim Anderson

        Only 6 data points and these players’ careers haven’t been written yet, but I’d say the teams picking after us did better.

        1. One big aspect everybody seems to forget is signability….our scout might had other players higher on their board but players demands might have pushed them back. Not really the scouts fault.

        2. Those aren’t all fair either. McCullers signed for a lot more than Watson, money that the Phillies didn’t have. Lee vs Biddle is interesting, I am not a huge Lee fan, him and Biddle are very similar in profiles. I will Crawford over Anderson everyday of the week and it is not even close. Dugan vs Murphy is really close, both profile as regulars.

          But if we are going to play the arbitrary metric game, here are the picks in front of each of those guys: Allan Dykstra, Cameron Garfield, Kyle Parker, Brandon Martin, Joey Gallo (ok I will give you that one, he is a monster), Braden Shipley

          1. I’m not great on chronology, but wasn’t Biddle from the era before hard caps, when the Phillies were free to spend as much as they wanted to on their draft picks? With their revenue stream and favorable stadium deal, they certainly weren’t hurting for $$$.

            1. Biddle was actually a slight overdraft if I recall…he’s a guy who was absolutely a rd 1-3 guy, but most scouts agreed that it was the hometown thing that got him into the 1st with philly

      3. exactly. the 2012 draft that DMAR referenced the Phils first pick was #40 overall, and he got hurt. So simply saying their draft was horrible is not really good analysis. from what I can see, a lot of the impact prospects were taken much higher than 40 overall.

      4. Matt….if you go back a few years earlier with the Redbirds,then the equation changes a bit on ‘number one round draft hits;
        2003 — Daric Barton-c……2004 —Christopher R Lambert-p………..2005 —Mark A Mccormick-p, —James T Greene-ss —Tyler D Herron-p—Colby R Rasmus-of,………..2006—Adam R Ottavino-p..—Christopher R Perez-p……2007 —Peter M Kozma-ss, —Clayton G Mortensen-p……..

      5. I agree wholeheartedly with the last paragraph. The primary fault lies with the organizational leadership who decided to go all in and forfeit the draft picks. I would also agree that the 2011/2012 drafts have yet to show a ton of success, but 2013 was very promising. I really hope they continue with the “draft up the middle” strategy.

        1. no…the primary fault lies in fans not understanding how hard it is to win 5 divisions and 2 pennants in a row. there is a cost to that. the point of a minor league is solely to support the main ball club.

          1. There’s some truth to that – but:

            (1) There were some really bad decisions (one trade and a couple of FA signings) that cost them minor league talent and/or picks. You can say that hindsight is 20/20, but most of the bad moves were obvious at the time.

            (2) While I think that some people overstate the case, it is true that, under the old system, the team could have and should have made up for the losses (prospects and picks) and poor draft position by spending more on over-slot & LA players..

            (3) Even taking the trades, lost picks, and poor draft position into account, the system’s production of younger players over the past ten years has been (at best) mediocre.

            1. I would add that, while I don’t think the drafting has been particularly bad, there is one type of pick that the team made fairly routinely and should have avoided: the toolsie position player without a hit tool in the first or second round.

              To be fair, the team seems to have learned – they still like the toolsheds, but seem to be more inclined to pick kids who at least appear to have a hit tool, or they pick those type of players in later rounds where the risk makes more sense.

          2. If the Phillies spent in the same neighborhood as the Rangers, Yankees, RedSox, Cubs and incidentally the Braves, in the Latin American free agent market, beginning in 2003/2004, then we would not be talking about a poor farm system beginning in 2011.

            1. I couldn’t agree more. We also could have busted slot total in some of those seasons to make up for a lack of primo draft picks, as some other teams were very willing to do.

            2. YES YES YES YOU exoress the point i have tried to make, better than me, but that is the downfall of this organization, with the right approach to those markets, we wouldnt have maybe had to make the oswalt trade, or given the contracts and overpaids to howard, pap, that have hurt,

  2. Matt are you going to do that column on phils vs cards player development? thought it was a great idea and i was looking forward to discussing

    1. dan the fact is this the cardinals won a title and are young and good, and let a great player go and still are in great shape, with a good farm systems, headed by taveras, and with 11 titles and 20 ws appearance, they are so far ahead of us, comparing draft choices wont change the facts, they know how to win and stay good,

  3. It’s really hard teasing out the various factors in the *(IMO undeniable) mediocre to poor output of the system over the past 10 years. Luck, draft position, financial conservatism (in the past), scouting, development all play a role. For that reason, I’m much less dogmatic on this issue than on many others. I’m increasingly inclined to question the development process, more than the scouting, though the first three factors also have a role. But that’s a tentative conclusion.

    But the elephant in the room is the fact that, given the current financial realities of the game combined with smarter decision making throughout the league (especially with regard to locking up young players long term), the ONLY way to be a consistent winner (as opposed to occasionally contending when the stars align) is the be EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD in drafting and developing talent.

    There are three to six teams which are. The Phillies aren’t one of them.

    I agree that this isn’t entirely, or perhaps not even much at all, on Amaro – but his other weaknesses are IMO glaringly apparent.

    1. Pretty much agree with everything you wrote. It’s really tough as a fan to see the Phillies behind the curve on just about every trend in baseball.

  4. I think LarryM nailed it. My issue isn’t really with the Phillies drafting. Its with overall player development. How many guys come into this organization and really blossom into something great? It starts with the draft, and I think they have done a pretty decent job of drafting guys with boatloads of talent. But those guys never evolve into what they could if they have proper coaching and training.

    Take the Cards for example. I don’t think people make the case that they draft incredibly well. What they do, however, is get the most out of everybody and max out potential. If Joe Kelly were in the Phils organization, hed probably be BJ Rosenberg, and vice versa. If Matt Adams were in the Phils organization, they’d probably keep him at Reading until hes 27 because they don’t like his body or lack of athleticism.

    Its not only in the minors. Look at guys who come to the Cards who end up doing way better there than at their previous location. They’ve gotten guys like Joel Pinero and Edwin Jackson and made them valuable rotation pieces. What I said in the other thread is that I believe that if the Cards got Rosenberg, De Fratus, Aumont, Diekman and Stutes at a young age like the Phils did, they would have molded them into solid PITCHERS…not guys with nasty stuff who throw hard but have zero idea where the ball is going.

    Makes me worry for Giles too.

    1. The Phillies have had a fair amount of success in the draft and a ton of notable flops. It really is important for the team to analyze when and why they have succeeded and why they have really fallen in love with so many duds. The times they’ve succeeded big time: Utley, Hamels, Howard are when they took guys with clearly established major skills, who fell because of a particular problem: Utley’s D was seriously questioned, Hamels’ health and attitude were seriously questioned, and Howard had an awful year leading up to the draft. Utley had to learn to be a plus defensive 2B and his attitude and work ethic, along with I’m sure good fielding instruction from the Phillies development staff did the trick. I’m actually quite confident in the ability of our minor league instructors to teach defense to IF and C. It seems to be an area that we understand and do well — both in scouting and instruction.

      Hamels really didn’t need to learn much of anything, apart from how to behave as an adult and stay healthy. The stuff was there from the day he signed, as was the work ethic. Howard had to learn to deal with the outside breaking stuff, a problem which he still has, but improved a bit while he was in Reading. He has also worked to improve his D. The power was always there and fully game demonstrated. I guess he had to relax a little and get past the draftitis that dogged his performance his last year in college.

      Either it was going on the Adderall, or somebody in the Phillies minor league staff really improved Ruiz’s offense while he was at Reading. This seems the exception, however. The instructional staff has way too little record of teaching raw hitters how to hit for a team whose scouts are totally in love with raw, toolsy, HS hitters. We just don’t do at all well in that area and need to either tweak the instruction or the scouting profile we are seeking. We scored with Rollins, and he did improve with the bat, while in the Phillies organization. We sort of scored with Brown, although I think the instruction also failed him a bit. What other HS hitter have we done well with in the past decade?

      We seem to do quite well identifying and developing HS pitching. Not nearly so well with college pitchers. Awful with relievers.

      Our sweet spot seems to be HS pitchers, college position players, and at times catchers. We used to really crank out more than our share of catchers. Ruiz was the last success.

      MW is correct that it is unfair to just blame the scouting. The PHillies have had fewer first and second picks than just about any team in baseball over the past nearly a decade and a lot of those first rounders weren’t high first rounders. I can justify the trading of prospects for stars, the Phillies won just about every deal — we got pulverized on the Freddy Garcia trade and lost the pointless Pence trade, but other than that have done extremely well trading prospects. What is inexcusable is the number of draft picks lost to sign FA relievers — some known to be very mediocre relievers, cases where we didn’t wait to see if the other team offered arb, and even losing a first and second in the same year on relievers. It is well worth a lost draft choice to sign a Lee, but most of the other signings were just bad.

      1. You hit the nail on the head.
        However, if the Phillies keep losing and keep getting top ten draft picks, then their draft success rate should improve, for ‘even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while’

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