2020 Draft Discussion: June 12th

This is the Phuture Phillies 2020 Draft Discussion.

The Phillies selected Mick Abel with their first round pick Wednesday night.

When the draft resumed on Thursday, they completed their draft with Casey Martin in the third round, Carson Ragsdale in the fourth, and Baron Radcliffe in the fifth.  The Phillies lost their second round pick for signing free agent Zach Wheeler during the off season.

Mick Abel is RHP out of Jesuit High School in Oregon.  He is 6’5, 190 lbs, born on August 8, 2001.  He was the 15th overall pick in the draft which has a slot valuation of $3,885,800.

Casey Martin is a right-handed hitting SS out of the University of Arkansas.  He is a 4th-year-junior.  He is 5’11, 175 lbs, born on April 7, 1999.  He was the the Phillies third round pick, 87th overall.  His draft slot has a valuation of  $689,300.

Carson Ragsdale is a RHP out of the University of South Florida.  He is a 4-year-senior.  He is 6’8, 225 lbs, born on May 25, 1998.  He was the Phillies fourth round pick, 116th overall.  His draft slot has a valuation of $497,500.

Baron Radcliffe is a left-handed hitting OF out of Georgia Tech.  The 4th-year-junior is 6’4, 228 lbs, born on February 9, 1999.  He was the Phillies fifth round pick, 146th overall.  His draft slot has a valuation of $371,600.

The Phillies’ total draft bonus pool is $5,444,200 (plus 5% = $5,716,410).

Draft signings and non-drafted free agent (NDFA) signings will be tracked here – 2020 Draft Tracker.

NDFA’s are limited to a bonus of of $20,000.

138 thoughts on “2020 Draft Discussion: June 12th

  1. Well … is there any doubt that John Middleton handed the keys to the draft to Brian Barber? Barber hired former Marlins crosschecker David Crowson (who was influential in identifying and drafting high upsiders Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and J.T. Realmuto). You can make the argument that no team drafted more for upside in 2020 than the Phillies.

    Mick Abel, Casey Martin, and Baron Radcliff are all kinds of tooled up. Carson Ragsdale has a ton of projection.

    That said, these guys all come with plenty of risk. Hard throwing HS RHP’s (Abel) are the riskiest demographic in the 1st round. Martin and Radcliff each produce extreme exit velos, but they each K’ed in over 30% of their PA’s this season.

    Best of luck to Josh Bonifay (and the Driveline guys) in developing this group.

    1. BTW … didn’t mean to come across as being down on this draft class. It’s an exciting group … just comes with a lot of risk.

    2. In fairness, I suppose it could be possible that the GM got more involved with the draft being shortened. Barber seems to have left his mark though.

    3. I agree with you, Hinkie, about the risks associated with this draft class, since the Phillies’ draft is loaded with potential, they need their development staff to come through. Too often, in the Phillies’ case, they draft players with high upside, but could never get them to develop into quality major leaugers, let alone all stars. Once normalcy returns, and we can get these guys into the system, it will be an interesting follow.

  2. Hinkie, can I assume that none of these guys are projected to be fast movers? A HS 1st rounder is probably 4 to 5 years away. The 3rd through 5th rounders have a lot of work ahead of them. Martin has a lot of swing and miss. Maybe someone thinks a swing adjustment might make a huge difference. If that’s the case, maybe he moves a bit faster than the others. Ragsdale might need some time to come back from TJ surgery in 2019. Radcliff is another swing and miss guy with a lot of power potential. Because the minor league season, this year, will probably be non-existent, maybe this is the year to go very risky. Just let the Driveline guys work on each of their issues and some of these guys will be ready to wow next year.

    1. I could see Ragsdale become a reliever and then move quickly. The others will need some time, either due to youth or to a need to overhaul their swings. I love taking upside guys in the draft, you only win at the major league level if some drafted players turn out to be legit starters. Good job Brian Barber! Now we need to coach them up.

    2. Bellman, Carson Ragsdale made 4 starts THIS season for USF.

      He was their Sunday starter. He led the team with 37 K (2nd in the conference and waxs second in batters struck out looking with 11). At #1 Florida (3/7/20) his line was 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. He threw a 6.0-inning one hitter against Marist (2/16/20) and also string out 10 and walking one.

      He finished 2020 with a 2.84 ERA through 19.0 innings while striking out 37 batters, allowing 12 hits and seven walks.

  3. Has anyone reworked the Phillies prospect rankings? Saw one post placing Abel #3 after Howard and Bohm. Casey Martin top 10? Ragsdale and Radcliffe top 20?

    Hinkie, is there a UDFA the Phillies might sign to be a top 25 talent?

    1. I don’t see anyone signing for $20K who makes the top 25. I do agree with Abel as #3 for us though. I put Martin in the top 20, not too 10.

      1. Agreed. Abel is easily #3 for me. And hard for me to rank Martin in top 10 until I see him against minor league pitching.

    2. If Martin is outside the top 10, I don’t think it’s very far. Don’t think the other guys are top 20 without showing something in pro ball.

    3. 8mark..ragsdale and Radcliffe…..do not see them in the top 10, maybe 11-15 range.
      Only for this year.
      Radcliffe has the one tool that is a plus….power.
      both Martin and Radcliffe have too high K rates to be taken seriously…right now…as top ten INO>

  4. I need to see Abel throw a few innings as a minor leaguer before I put him at #3. I mean come on…. Does drafting Martin send a signal to Stott that long-term he’s not the SS? Maybe 2nd base?

    1. “I mean come on…” << not a very persuasive argument imo.

      Here is how I look at it. Let’s say the entire Phillies system was put into this draft, who besides Bohm and Spencer go in top 15?

      Stott is only one possible. He was taken 14th overall last year. But Stott is on very few national top 100 lists. Not on Fangraphs top 120 for example (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/).

      Mick Abel has the pitch grades and ceiling time be a true TOR. Those are rare prospects. Abel will definitely make top 100 prospect lists.

      1. The “come on” was meant more as a let’s take the foot off the gas a bit. Abel hasn’t thrown one inning of GCL yet. Let’s see how he does in the minors before we prep his locker in Philly..

        1. I don’t think being ranked 3rd in a weak system is prepping his locker. It’s not like Stott has played a lot since he was drafted.

        2. Hawk, the second part of your statement grabbed my attention. ” Does drafting Martin send a signal to Stott …?”

          I don’t think it sends a signal any more than drafting Stott sent a message to Luis Garcia.

          I think this just confirms that the Phillies drafted BPA when a better player drops to them in the draft.

          The Phillies were prepared to take another infielder last year but Stott, an infielder they rated higher was still on the board. It happened again this year when in the first round they were surprised to see Abel still available. I believe they would have taken Howard if Abel wasn’t still on the board. A similar event occurred when Martin dropped to the third round. They expected him to come off the board much earlier.

  5. I like the very first pick…that is it.
    Abel has a chance to be an elite TOR
    However, for the rest of the draft class,
    Dan O’Dowd may have said it best, before MLB Network decided to cut him short,
    “I don’t know, they selected two position players with high strikeout….” cut.
    Easy to see O’Dowd was very skeptical of the three last picks.

    Unless the Phillies have another strategy in mind, I think Brian barber’s first draft has a lot to be proven.

    That other strategy…….offer Martin, Ragsdale and Radcliffe well below slot…if they accept, great the extra pool money goes to the 2021 draft. If they do not accept, just thta more money towards 2021 draft pool.

    1. This is very fair criticism of the Martin and Radcliff picks.

      The Martin pick I can see because he has a number of tools, plus some positional versatility. An improved and more selective approach at the plate could reduce the strikeouts and improve the contact. It’s certainly no guarantee, but’s it’s a reasonable risk on a 3rd round pick for a player with Martin’s all-around skill.

      Conversely, the boom or bust for Baron Radcliff is heavily weighted toward the latter, as Radcliff has one tool only (power), but managed only a .236 batting average in three seasons of college ball. We can all see how this is very likely to end up, so not a fan of this pick.

      1. I see your point with Martin….all his tools are there, except the hit tool.
        And as a 3rd round pick, ranked in the top 30/40 of most all draft analyst’s lists…it is a reasonable risk to take.
        Now the hit toll, unfortunately is usually the one tool that is a make or break tool to get to the majors.
        MLB.com had him ranked at 30
        Of all the position players they have ranked in the top 30, there are 14 of them, only two have a hit tool of 45…..Martin and the catcher Patrick Bailey.
        So falling to a mid-80s draft slot is probably what could be expected based on that one grading.
        If anything ……he can be that super-utility defensive guy with the occasional pop.

  6. I am happy with the high ceiling approach. And while HS Pitchers are a risk, it is an injury risk, not a projection one. And, this kid didn’t play this year. Quite frankly, I much prefer this approach. We have complained for years that we lack elite minor league talent, and the way to get some, besides drafting #1 when Bryce Harper is the pick, is to take some risk. I think we did a really nice job with this draft, and I look forward to seeing them develop. I am not suggesting that any of you are being negative about the draft, just offering my opinion.

  7. I just read that Casy Martin was a projected 1st round pick about a month ago. Anyone’s thoughts on why he dropped to mid third round?

  8. He had an excellent freshman year, and had a high K rate in his Sophomore year. His other numbers were good. He has raw power, top end speed, a good glove and arm. Questions are about his approach, swings for power, and wasn’t as consistent in the field as some would like. He can play SS, 2B, CF. He was still ranked in the 30’s, even with those concerns, because his tools are elite. I believe I have expressed a synopsis of what I have read.

    1. matt13…..IMO, Scott Kingery-type player…..if he is to make it, I see him being that super-utility guy.The difference …Kingery developed his power after turning pro and exploded at Doubel A Reading…..Martin decided to go in that direction at Arkansas right out of the gate.
      I am not sure either him or Radcliffe will advance pass Reading and Double A pitching…like the many before with great tools and athleticism…except the one, the HIT tool for contact ability…..Anthony Hewitt, Cam Perkins, Eric Valent, Travis Mattair, Mike Costanxo, Harold martinez, Zac Collier, Larry Greene, Greg Golson.et al..
      Hope they prove me wrong.

        1. Right….Eric V. did get to the majors and had that brief sun burst with those Mets….so I stand corrected on that for sure.

      1. Romus – ha – that brought back alot of bad memories !!! I agree with the probable assessment that the 5th round pick will likely fall into this group.

        1. When you look at Martin…..minus the swing and miss issues…..he does look a little like Trea Turner of the Nats…..has the raw tools for sure, just lacks consistent contact skills

  9. First time poster here. I have no problem with taking a a HS pitcher with this pick. The knock is that past statistics don’t project well for HS pitchers. IMO this is a new era regarding HS training, strength, conditioning, metrics, and competition. These HS players are much more seasoned and advanced than players from 10 years ago. They will move faster through the system if coached correctly.

  10. I read all the comments with regards to the injury risks associated with taking a high school right hander in the first round. But my belief is that injuries will happen, no matter what. These kids are drafted, immediately put on pitch counts and innings limits, and in most cases shut down for the season as teams try to protect their investment. But it doesn’t matter how hard you throw. The Phillies have 3 soft tossing lefties in their system, Kyle Young, Nick Fanti, and Baily Falter, and all three have suffered serious injuries to either their elbows or shoulders. Adam Morgan was a college lefty whose career was nearly derailed by a serious shoulder injury, came back, only to suffer an elbow injury last year. It’s just the nature of the sport.

    1. I will take a Stephen Strasburg, HS draftee, with an injury than some others without one.

  11. Martin was drafted at 87, not earlier. Teams avoided him because of his hit tool. We can’t suddenly ignore that and think we got a steal and make him a top 10 prospect and push Stott off of SS. There is a huge amount of risk in Martin. He’s a top 20 to me and Stott will stay at SS as long as he can play it. He has much more value as a SS than as a 3B. The 5th rd guy is a poor man’s Cozens and Ragsdale looks like a shirt reliever to me. Those are top 30 or 40 prospects to me.

    1. It sounds like Martin probably won’t be a SS in the majors anyway. Everything I’ve read has him as a 2B, CF or UTIL so I don’t think he’s a big threat to Stott.

    2. “We can’t suddenly ignore that and think we got a steal and make him a top 10 prospect” << are you new here?

  12. You gotta love Casey Martin’s nickname. I can picture it now…2023 keystone combo – Jetpax and the Jackrabbit. Only in baseball.

  13. Liked the first pick but not much else. Too many strikeouts with the position players and other pitcher is ok. Looking at Yankees it appears Barber doesn’t mind guys who strikeout.

      1. I would….but only depending how healthy Judge will be when they return to play again. Over the last two seasons he has missed 1/3 of a possible max 324 games….and understand both his fractured rib has possibly healed, and his collapse lung from the spring is coming along.
        But Cashman has yet to extend him thru his last few arb years…may be the money, or may be durability and wariness seeing what is happening to Stanton.

        If Judge cannot come back 100% I would think twice about taking on a Yankees roster.

    1. I think I might live with strikeouts with a plus defender sometimes. So, and apologies if this repeats like blah blah million previous posts, but the weird thing to me is that compared with other drafts this is such a mandated dramatic reduction in new player expenditures, which basically is telling undrafted players not to sign, doesn’t it? The 2019 pool was over 6.5million and the 2020 pool is around 3.5million, yes? In 2019 there were 40 rounds and this year there are 5 rounds so that is if my math is correct, 7/8ths of the players picked last year who would have to “settle” for $20,000 . What, i wonder, are going to be the options available to teams who wait on players who had projected draft slot values above $20,000 based on the 2019 40 round draft levels and just don’t do anything until the signing period for this draft expires. One might think there would be some good options!

    2. Martin has 1st round defensive skills and arm so that’s a ++. As for the strike out percentage the Phillies we definitely be over hauling Martin’s stance so he either puts the ball in play, walks more due to pitch selectivity or both to cut down on the 30% K rate.. That K rate will not get you to the bigs..It’s definitely doable… That’s what Hitting Coaches are for..

      1. Very difficult to do that….young guys get into habits they are comfortable with…so can adjust, so find it more difficult.

        We can however, give Martin the benefit of the doubt…..his frosh and soph years with 600+ PAs totaled, he K’ed 23%….okay he was only 18 and 19 years old and also facing elite SEC pitching who were for the most part his age or older…so that is a credit check on his side of the ledger.
        Also having the hamate injury last fall, probably hurt him a bit this past spring where he only was able to het 71 PAs in before the shutdown.
        So there is rationale that he can achieve a better contact skill.
        Hopefully I am not reaching.

        But have seen it many times in the past….just something to dream on.
        The K rate normally gets ticks higher as prospects go up the ladder when they face better pitching and usually in Double A ball you probably see the closest to the real metric line of peripherals a prospect will have before going to the majors..

  14. Well the draft is over. Keith Law and the other sports announcers searching for clicks on “Way to Early 2021 Mock Draft” articles won’t get my attention. Let’s hope everyone of our draftees and a few non-tendered players contribute to a Phillies WS. It sure was an unconventional draft.

    1. Speaking of Keith Law … he posted his draft recap of the NL teams this morning.

      Philadelphia Phillies:

      The Phillies were pretty adamant they wouldn’t take a high school pitcher in the first round … except for the best one in the class, Mick Abel (1), who has been an elite prospect at least since the end of his sophomore year. Abel has size, stuff, delivery — everything you’d want in a teenaged pitching prospect other than the part where he didn’t pitch at all this spring. He’s consistently 92-95 mph and looks like he’ll throw a little harder in the future, with a plus curveball, solid-average change and the ability to repeat his delivery to get to plus command. He’s a high school pitcher, and the success rate for those guys is lower than it is for any other class, but at least the Phillies got the best in the group.

      Casey Martin (3) was a possible first-rounder coming into the year but was so bad in the early going that it knocked him well into Day 2. He’s a 70 runner who could stay at shortstop, with plenty of arm for that position or third base, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who doesn’t pick up spin and gets around the ball way too often. There’s a good regular in here, but the Phillies have a lot of work to do to get him close to an average hit tool. Right-hander Carson Ragsdale (4) is another power arm, a reliever for two years at South Florida who came back from Tommy John surgery to strike out 37 batters in four starts (46 percent of batters faced). He was up to 95 mph in his return with an above-average curveball but needs a third pitch to start. Baron Radcliff (5) is, in fact, not a rejected “Clue” character but an all-or-nothing power hitter who’s struggled to hit for average at Georgia Tech and might end up at first base or DH.

  15. … and speaking of Waaay Too Early Mock Drafts … I posted my Phillies only guesses in the last thread right before it was shut down. Since I spent about 45 minutes on it (LOL), I’m re-posting it here.

    PHILLIES 2021 MLB DRAFT (Waaay Too Early Guesses)

    ROUND 1: Malakhi Knight OF Marysville Getchell HS in Washington … is a two sport star (also a top prep basketball player) from the Pacific Northwest (Hey, two years in a row!). Knight just looks the part. The 6′ 3″, 187 lb RH hitting prepster projects to plus power and plus speed. The sky is the limit once he focuses on just baseball.

    ROUND 2: Zack Gelof 3B Virginia … is an ascending local product. He’s a native of Rehoboth Beach, DE, and may be a bigger Eagles fan than Mike Trout. Gelof was a productive player as a freshman in 2019 when he hit .313/.377/.396, but he’s really taken off since then. The 6’3″, 200 lb 3Bman slashed .349/.426/.490 in the Northwoods Summer League 11 months ago. His sophomore campaign at Virginia took off like a rocket this spring (.349/.469/.746, 5 HR’s in 18 games) before it was halted because of COVID-19.

    1. ROUND 3: Ryan Cusick RHP Wake Forest … is an improving former northeast prep player with a high ceiling. Cusick is a Massachusetts native who played HS ball in Connecticut. He’s an imposing presence on the mound. He stands 6’6″, 230 lbs and throws a mid 90’s (T 99) FB. He adds a low 80’s SL (probably shoul be able to add a few ticks to that) and has a decent CH (doesn’t use it enough). That three pitch mix allowed Cusick to put up an eye popping 17.3 K/9 IP in 2020. The Deamon Deacon RHP will need to work on his control (7.3 BB/9 IP this season) between now and next June.

      ROUND 4: Josh Hood 2B/SS/3B UPenn … may be an under-the-radar prospect by some for 2021, but he won’t go unnoticed by MLB scouts. Hood was a Freshman All-American in 2019 when he slashed .331/.411/.580. He also slugged 8 HR’s, and had totaled more BB/HBP (25) tha K’s (21). The Vineland native (you know I’m a big fan!) followed up his freshman campain with a spectacular summer in the Coastal Plains League. He slashed .333/.405/.654 and launched 11 HR’s while there. The 6’1″, 185 lb infielder was off to a slower start (.263/.256/.342 in just 38 AB’s) in 2020 before the pandemic shut things down.

      1. ROUND 5: Christian Lothes LHP Charlotte Univ … is a bulky southpaw who will be sophomore eligible in 2021. The 6’2″, 220 lb former Ohio prep star carries a mid 90’s FB, a power SL, and CH. Lothes made only one appearance for Charlotte in 2020 (his freshman campaign) before falling to an (undisclosed) injury. He didn’t throw again in the abbreviated season. In his lone game, he totaled 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K. he 6’2″, 220 lb former Ohio prep star carries a mid 90’s FB, a power SL, and CH.

        1. I was wondering no minor league season, If virus doesn’t get bad in September, is there a chance these kids play a short fall season to get in some games?

          1. rocco….they could extend the AFL league from both ends….start a bit early and end it a little later and get in more than the typical 30 regular season games, maybe a 50 game season.
            The weather in Arizona is always ideal and conducive for fall ball and they could also expand the league teams, from 6 to maybe 12, and rosters..

  16. Jim Callis says the Phillies had the best draft of any club that did not have a full allotment of picks:

    “Among clubs without a full complement of five choices, the Phillies did the best by snagging the top high school pitcher (Mick Abel, out of Jesuit High in Portland, Ore.) at No. 15 and one of the most athletic collegians (Arkansas shortstop Casey Martin) in the third round.”

    1. Hinkie….so that tells me he ranks the Phillies draft as 24th overall……since the other teams with less than 5 selections were the Braves, Red Sox, Astros, Yankees, Angels and Twins.

      1. Callis could have the Phillies as high #7 or #8 overall. He listed his top 6. He then listed the Blue Jays and Phillies as his two honorable mentions. Their floor would be #24 for the reason you gave above.

      2. Romus, I think you are reading the article wrong as the writer went out of his way to compliment our 1rst and 3rd picks. I like both those picks and love what the Orioles did.

        1. Hinkie/philabalt……logically speaking, teams with 6 or 7 picks….will most likely be ranked the highest. Teams with 5 could be subject to debate when compared to the Phillies’ total of four selections..
          There were 15 teams with at least 6 picks or more.
          I can only assume they have rankings better than the Phillies….since the majority of the MLB.com Top 200 were drafted by these teams…IMO, it would only make sense.
          So, so taking into account teams with 5 selections or less, then I would think the Phillies could be ranked anywhere between 16 and 24

  17. When the Phillies committed 330 million dollars to Bryce Harper, they did it not only for his HR’s, his arm in RF, the WAR he would contribute … they also bought a “face of the franchise”. The guy does not disappoint. The Phillies sold a ton of tickets and merchandise last season on the back of Bryce. Just as impressive for me, Harper is a fabulous teammate to not just the MLB guys … but … he is incredibly generous of his time towards young players. I remember reading about him offering advise to Mickey Moniak (maybe Matt M can confirm this). This week, he has called (at least three of) the Phillies draft picks to congratulate them. What MLB superstar does this?

  18. Kiley McDaniel lists the Phillies selection of Mick Abel as one of the best 1st round picks:

    “Prep righties are the riskiest demographic in the draft and they get even riskier when there’s no spring season, and with financial adjustments to the draft, prep players in general get tougher to sign. Combine that with Abel’s last public looks being a slightly diminished version of himself late in the summer, and this was a hard selection to get off the ground. One scout described to me all of the hoops you have to jump through internally to take a first-round prep righty this year and compared it to turning around an aircraft carrier.

    I love the pick because all the track record and talent and upside elements say Abel would’ve and should’ve gone in the top 10, while all of the political/process factors say he should’ve dropped further. A daring pick by the Phillies was a great move here, as seeking risk is my kind of strategy when it comes with history, tools and performance.”


    He also lists Casey Martin and Baron Radcliff as day two TrackMan standouts.

    “SS Casey Martin (87th to the Phillies) is an 80 runner.”

    “RF Baron Radcliff (146th to the Phillies) has massive 70-grade raw power and shows it in games: He had the third-highest hard-hit rate among qualified hitters (66%) in 2019 and the hardest-hit ball (116.3 mph) along with the farthest-hit ball (471 feet) of any 2020 prospect in the 2019 or 2020 seasons at any level with a TrackMan unit.”

  19. “I love the pick because all the track record and talent and upside elements say Abel should have gone in the Top 10.” That says it all for me about the pick. Sorry, the political/process factors are how you end up mediocre.I am glad that they took some risks. Romus, I usually agree with you, but I read that article as praising us, not suggesting that we were 24th. I think that Ragsdale was a good pick, also. He may end up out of the BP, but I think he could be a good one. And, I am not discounting that he can develop a 3rd pitch, and be a SP. That is what coaching is for.

    1. matt13…like I mentioned above…..IMO, the Phillies could be between 16 and 24 ….by Callis or Mayo’s rankings.
      I cannot see them ranking teams with 6 selections or 7 below the Phillies draft.
      Those 15 teams selected the vast majority of players from Callis and Mayo’s own Top 200 list of MLB.com.
      They had Abel at 11….and Martin at 30….so that is a plus.
      However, Ragsdale was 169 and Radcliff was not even on their board.

    2. matt13:
      Seeing how there are differing expert opinions on the quality of each team’s draft…here are two.

      Phillies Draft Ranking:
      —CBS Sports:13 thru 20….12-A grades, 7-B grades and 11 C or below..they graded the Philies draft a B

      —FantasyPros: Phillies number one, tied with the Cardinals..both A+

      1. #7) Phillies
        Grade: B+

        Overview: Mick Abel, Baron Radcliff and Casey Martin all went well after the spot I had them on my board, and Martin especially was a higher value pick (he went 56 picks after his rank in The War Room). While I’m not a fan of Ragsdale, this was a slam dunk draft. Despite his scary demographic (right-handed prep pitcher), Mick Abel should provide a solid floor with tools you can dream on. While this haul was a but risky with lots of low floors/high ceilings, but if just one of Abel, Radcliff or Martin pop, the Phillies will likely have an all-star on their hands.

  20. Just throwing in my 2 cents, love 3 of the 5 picks and like the other 2. Would have been interesting to see what the new ASD could have done with more than 5 picks. Hopefully the draft falls somewhere around 15-20 rounds next year and in the future.

    1. Eric … the 2021 draft is going to be at least 20 rounds long. I’m looking forward to a normal draft again also.

    1. They may have training sessions for them at the Complex..
      Perhaps start a ‘quasi-FIL’ program earlier and prolong it more than the normal time frame. They will be signing additional players starting today. So they should have enough payers to make things interesting
      MLB also pushed back the deadline for draftees to sign. It was set to be July 10, but instead it will be this on Aug. 1…..and Martin has already signed,

  21. From the Arhletic… Behind their pay wall… I thought the article was a bit to tough and unfair to Martin..

    “The swing: Casey Martin brings promising tools, glaring weakness to Phillies”

      1. Again, seems a very fair assessment. Problems with pitch recognition and contact: 28% strikeout rate in 2019, up to 37% in limited action in 2020.

        Martin has some nice tools, but there’s a very clear reason why he fell to 3:87.

        1. He also has that other issue….can be a little too reckless in the field…..sometimes a strong arm guy will try making spectacular plays. He made 43 errors in three years….one every third game.
          From 2019
          :Razorback sophomore Casey Martin led the SEC in errors this season at shortstop, but Arkansas head coach Dave Van Horn believes he will excel at the position next season.(2020)……Martin moved to shortstop this season after spending his freshman year primarily at third base. The Lonoke native committed an SEC-leading 23 errors this season and 15 in 2018. The next player on the list after Martin only made 15 errors this season. However, Van Horn still believes that Martin has what it takes to play shortstop in the SEC.
          “Well, I’m not scouting, I’m not coaching in the big leagues,” Van Horn said of Martin on Monday. “I would say that, if you’re asking me, what I like him as, I think he can play short at this level. If you look at his errors, I was looking at them today, more than half of his errors were just errors that shouldn’t have happened. Kicking the ball out of his glove, throwing the ball high, throwing the ball low, errors that just shouldn’t have happened. We were very fortunate that out of all of his errors, only a couple of them came around and probably cost us or even scored.”

  22. Teams can begin signing UDFA’s this morning. I wonder if the Phillies will publish all of their signings in one statement, or if they’ll announce each as they sign.
    I wrote something about this last week in the first draft thread (maybe I’ll re-post it here). All UDFA’s are capped at 20-thousand dollar bonuses. The NCAA has granted all players an additional year of eligibility. It sounds like most kids not drafted this week will return to school to try to earn a bonus of more than 20-thousand dollars in the (at least) 20 round draft next year. For the most part, the guys who sign for 20-thousand beginning today will be older (at least 22 YO) who may get stuck as senior signs (getting even less money) in 2021. It’s also possible (but not likely) that 21 YO kids could sign who are not interested in paying another year of some tuition (most college players only receive partial scholarships).

    Matt Klentak and Brian Barber have a few selling points:

    * The team only drafted four players. Most other clubs selected at least five, and some took as many as seven.
    * The Phillies farm system is among the bottom third in MLB. That should lead to an easier possible path to the big leagues.
    * Geography. The Phillies could have a leg up on players from the area.

    Here are the bios on the players I posted as UDFA possibilities for the Phillies (again … some on this list will probably return to school):

    * Joey Lancellotti RHP UNC … was the #2 HS player in Pennsylvania in 2017. The Penn Charter grad is not a large kid (5′ 11″, 200 lbs), but he carries a big FB (sits 95-96 out of the BP), and pairs it with a sharp low 80’s SL. UNC used him mostly as a reliever in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, he was moved to the rotation and got four starts before the arrival of Carona Virus. During his time as a Tar Heel, Lancellotti has totaled 115 IP, 86 H, 55 BB, 120 K. He’s not bad with a bat in his hands either. He hit 2 HR’s as a DH this truncated season. Not only is the 22 YO a Philadelphia kid, but Brian Barber was part of the NYY’s FO that scouted and selected him in the 34th round last year (Lancellotti obviously did not sign).

    * Brandon McIlwain OF Cal … is a local kid that you may (or may not) remember I wrote about last year. He has a complicated story, and has made some terrible career decisions. I’ll try to keep it short: McIlwain was one of the most decorated prep athletes in the country in 2015-16. While at Council Rock North, he was not only a Perfect Game All-American baseball player, he was also the Gatorade Football Player Of The Year in Pennsylvania. He made Keith Law’s very early top 30 list for the 2016 MLB draft … but … (and this is where he made his first disastrous career decision) McIlwain removed himself from that summer’s draft by graduating HS early (January 2016) and heading to the Univ of South Carolina to play CF and QB for the Gamecocks. Things didn’t work out for him on either the diamond or gridiron, and, after two seasons, McIlwain transferred to Cal. On the left coast, the young man got two starts under center for the Bears football team, but was eventually moved to RB (where his PT dwindled). His baseball career at Cal began last year when he slashed .258/.309/.435 in just 63 AB’s (missed lots of time with a broken foot). Despite the modest amount of AB’s, the Marlins drafted the 6’1″, 205 lb RH hitting OFer in the 27th round last June. McIlwain made another terrible decision by not signing with Miami. He, instead, returned to Cal for his RSjr season in 2020. RUH-ROH! COVID-19 allowed him only 55 AB’s in 2020. He slashed a meager .200/.333/.273.
    McIlwain probably cost himself between two and three million dollars in 2016. He likely refused 125-thousand dollars last summer. He turned 22 YO last month, football is no longer in the cards for him, and it looks like he’s now locked into a 20-thousand dollar bonus (whether he takes it now or next year).

    1. * Gianluca Dalatri RHP UNC … was probably the second best prep arm from NJ (Monmouth County) in 2016 (behind only Jason Groome). The 6’6″, 240 lb “righty” was impressive in his first season at UNC (Freshman All-American), but has been slowed by injuries since then. He amassed just 27 IP in 2018 because of a stress reaction to his throwing elbow, and only 32 IP in 2019 due to hip surgery. He was still waiting to make his first appearance in 2020 when the pandemic hit. Dalatri throws in the low 90’s, and really controls the K-zone (1.96 BB per 9 IP in college). During his career as a Tar Heel, the 22 YO hurler has gone 156 IP, 154 H, 34 BB, 151 K.

      * Jordan DiValerio RHP Saint Joseph’s … is a kid (and this is just a hunch on my part) that may be the likliest Phillies UDFA signing on this list. The 6′ 1″, 200 lb thrower is from central PA, and will turn 23 YO in November. DiValerio carries a low 90’s FB that will touch 94, a 78-82 MPH fading changeup that flashes abv avg, and an inconsistent slurvish breaking ball at 76-79 MPH all from a three-quarter slot. The St. Joes’s Friday night starter was having a great season in 2020 before the shutdown. He totaled 22.2 IP, 16 H, 5 BB, 33 K, .193 OBA. The highlight to his season was an upset win vs 24th ranked Ohio St when he tallied 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 9 K.

      1. * Peter Matt OF UPenn … is a career .311/.387/.427 slasher. The 6’2″, 215 lb native of Larchmont, NY really came into his own over the last two seasons. During that time, Matt (a senior) put up a .348/.412/.513 line, and was named All-Ivy League twice. Matt’s also got some speed (6 triples last year tied a school record), and is a plus defender in RF. He committed no errors and totaled nine OF assists over the last two seasons. He racked up an almost unbelievable 21 career OF assists as a Quaker.

        1. * Christian Scafidi RHP UPenn … is a native of Blackwood, NJ, and a college teammate of Peter Matt. Like Matt, Scafidi is a two-time All-Ivy League recipient. As a matter of fact, the 22 YO (will turn 23 YO in August) was named the Ivy League Pitcher Of The Year in 2019 (68.2 IP, 60 H, 18 BB, 59 K), and was on his way to back-to-back awards in 2020 (15 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 13 K, 0.00 ERA) before the season was lost. The 6’4″, 245 lb RHP is sheduled to play for Notre Dame in 2021 as a grad transfer. I wonder if he’d forego South Bend if the Phillies offered him 20-thousand dollars?

          Scafidi is a free spirit. He’s got a Larry Anderson type personality (#14 in the tweet below).

          1. * Jordan Cozart IF Murray St … plays some 2B and some 3B. The 5’11”, 175 lb RH hitter has done nothing but rake in college. During two seasons in JUCO and two seasons at Murray State, Cozart has slashed .358/.442/.555. The Evansville, Indiana native turns 23 in September so he’s very likely to sign this summer. See Cozart hit a HR at the 1:33 mark below.

            * William Simoneit C Wake Forest … before spending the 2020 season as a Demon Deacon, Simoneit got an Ivy League education/degree from Cornell. He’s a big boy (6’4″, 235 lb) with a thunderous bat. He slashed .313/.379/.492 during his first three seasons at Cornell. He was even better for Wake this season (.377/.462/.642). Simoneit turns 24 YO in October so he’s a slam dunk to sign with someone.

  23. * Chris Alleyne CF Maryland … is a kid I’m throwing on this list despite the fact that he’s still a junior, and is still 21 YO (for another six months). I have no reason to believe he would take 20-thousand dollars now instead of returning to school … except that maybe he might want to play for his home town team. Alleyne is a little (5′ 9″, 175 lb) spark plug who starred at SS as a prepster at Chestnut Hill Academy, but has moved to CF as a Terrapin. Alleyne did next to nothing during his freshman and sophomore seasons at Maryland (.202/.319/.364), but he broke out in a big way in 2020. He was slashing .333/.413/.500 in 68 AB’s, and was dazzling with his glove before the sudden halt to the season. Again … Alleyne has every reason to return to Maryland for a fourth year, and try to build upon his 2020 season … but … it can’t hurt Klentak and Barber to recruit the kid.

    1. I mocked Lanzilli to the Phillies in one of my mocks. I like him, but I’m betting he heads back to Wake for another season.

      1. I can see that,
        He has the opportunity to make more that $20K if drafted next year….even outside the 10th round.

  24. Strange oddity:
    Cleveland Indian could have two LHPs in their top ten prospect lists by the name of Logan Allen…one drafted last week and the other obtained in a trade from the Padres.

  25. Here’s more on Jake McKenna. From everything I’ve read, he seems like:

    A) a kid with too much potential to take 20-thousand dollars instead of heading to St, Joe’s (great recruiting job by Brian Barber and the scouting staff)

    B) a good kid who is going to be easy to root for!

    1. He actually made a pretty good point in his interview; with so many kids going back to school because of the wonky draft and short season, it would have been tougher for incoming freshmen to get playing time at school.

      Although for someone of his caliber, I agree he took a discount and wouldn’t have had any trouble starting. This screams of, “I want to get my pro career started.”

  26. And … one of the dudes I listed (further above) as potential Phillies UDFA targets has signed with somewhere else. I kind of envisioned Luca Dalatri to be most likely to agree to terms with the either the NYY’s or NYM’s, but he’s become a Cardinal prospect.

  27. Also … Wake Forrest C/1B/3B William Simoneit (another guy I listed above) has signed with the A’s.

  28. Phillies also landed Lafayette LHP JP Woodward this afternoon. Here’s his scouting report: “Attacks with good angle out of a 6-foot-6, 215-pound frame and low-three-quarters slot, blending an upper-80s heater with a sweeping upper-70s slider and slow 2-to-8 curve in the 70-to-72 mph range. He struggles to hit a consistent release, leading to bouts of wildness, and projects as a future senior sign.”

      1. rocco……but he is a lefty, and tallish with a closer release point to the plate. So there are a few pluses to hang your fedora on.

    1. I do think the HS kids get the added incentive , besides the 20K signing bonus….the opportunity to pursue eligibility for the two educational programs MLB has set up…College Scholarship Plan (CSP)/ Continuing Education Program (CEP).
      Once they are done playing, they would have two years to enroll….anyways that was the way it was a few years ago. Assume they still have it going.

  29. I agree with him. I find it unconscionable that these young kids are getting screwed over. We talk about this fight between billionaires and millionaires, and I look forward to one of these kids hitting it big and getting his multi million dollar contract. Today, Manfred walked back his “guarantee” of there being a 2020 season. The league now wants the players to waive any grievance over the Commissioner scheduling 48-54 games, as they are worried that a 48 game schedule, although it can be implemented by Manfred, doesn’t mean that the Union can’t file a grievance, arguing that the league did not “make a good faith effort to schedule as many games as possible.” Clearly, Tony Clark’s pronouncement that “it is time to go to work. Tell us where and when,” was seen by at least one of the League’s lawyers as a set up to play a shortened season, and then recoup money by filing a grievance. As much as I love baseball, this whole mess has a part of me hoping they cancel the whole season. It was so easy for both sides to screw over young kids, but so difficult to make a fair agreement. I side with the players, because I believe the owners will get back every penny, while players have a short career in comparison to generations owning a franchise. But this 5 rd draft, and limiting UDFA to only $20,000, is on both sides, and the Union deserves blame as well as the League.

    1. matt13….limiting the draft to 5 rounds from 20,…,saved the MLB teams/owners approx $400M

  30. I understand that Romus, I do, but I agree with jim. And the draft will be back to a much larger draft next year. But, the $20,000 limit isn’t fair, and it isn’t fair that Boras was stopped by the Union from paying kids that were dumped, and who are getting nothing from the Union.

  31. No problem Romus! I probably should have started my post on the Open Discussion site, but I was responding to jim’s comment and I thought it fit under the UDFA signings.

  32. First chance I’ve had to see the Bryce Harper phone call/facetime to/with Baron Radcliff. Like I’ve posted a couple of times already … Bryce Harper has been a stud as the new face of the Phillies franchise.

    Harper also reportedly also called Mick Abel and Casey Martin.


    The Phillies have signed Billy Sullivan !!!

    Who is Billy Sullivan? I’ve been writing about this kid for three years. In fact I mocked Sullivan to the good guys as a third round pick in my WAAAY TOO EARLY 2020 PHILLIES MOCK DRAFT this time last year. I’m just going to copy and paste here. It pretty much sums up the Billy Sullivan story in a nutshell.


    ROUND 3 … Billy Sullivan (RHP Delaware) came this close (holding thumb and index finger nearly together) to becoming a Phillie two years ago. Johnny A drafted the Delaware prepster in the 28th round after watching him throw for the team at CBP the weekend before the draft. I believe Almaraz was confident Sullivan (who grew up a die hard Phillies fan) was going to sign. However, the 6’2″, 180 lb RHP broke the team’s heart when he chose to honor his commitment to the Blue Hens. Sullivan was a Freshman All-American in 2018 (72.2 IP, 52 H, 42 BB, 95 K). Those 95 K’s were the second most by any freshman pitcher in DI ball.

    … the Billy Sullivan story continues. After two rocky starts in his soph season (4.2 IP, 4 H, 10 BB, 10 K), Sullivan was shut down and headed for TJ surgery. This is speculation on my part … but … the elbow injury may have been the result of working with Delaware’s former pitching coach in the offseason trying to gain more velo. Sullivan did gain the extra MPH’s (see tweet below), but did it exert too much stress on his arm?

    1. … anyway … Sullivan is now three months removed from surgery, and is working hard to be ready to go sometime in 2020. If he makes it back to the mound next season and proves he’s healthy again, I could see Almaraz re-drafting Sullivan.

      Like I said … I posted that a year ago. The former Phillie draft pick never got the chance to take the mound for Delaware this season because COVID-19 shut things down early. He did post this throwing session a week ago as proof that he was healthy again.

  34. That now takes the Phillies to seven UDFA signings. All seven are pitchers. Chase Antle was announced tonight.

    Here is a piece of a scouting report on Antle from D1 Baseball.com from earlier this year:

    Antle, a graduate transfer from Bowling Green, is something of an X-factor after walking 35 in 33.2 innings last spring, but he has shutdown stuff if he can harness it. He attacked at 93-95 in a 1-2-3 inning against the Seahawks along with a wipeout power curveball at 82-83 with big downer action. “It’s a big-time hammer,” Gilmore said. “I haven’t seen one with that kind of velocity with that late depth since [Mike] Morrison pitched here.”

  35. Here are the seven UDFA arms signed by Matt Klentak, Brian Barber, and his staff:

    Jake McKenna LHP Ocean City HS
    Jordan Fowler LHP (Central Missouri/Ole Miss)
    Sam Jacobsak RHP (Northeastern)
    Noah Skirrow RHP (Liberty)
    JP Woodward LHP (Lafayette)
    Chase Antle RHP (Coastal Carolina)
    Billy Sullivan RHP (Delaware)

    I’m impressed with this group and the recruiting job done by the Phillies.

      1. Impressive HS pitcher that was drafted in 2nd round by Baltimore in 2015. Had elbow surgery during college career at GA Tech with screws inserted in elbow. Don’t see anything about signing with Phillies.

        1. jonboyh8
          I am excited to announce that I have signed with the Philadelphia Phillies! I want to thank the Lord for blessing me with the dream I have had ever since I was a kid! I want to thank my family, coaches, teammates, and friends that have been through it all with me that have helped me through my crazy journey! Thank you to @gtathletics and @gt_baseball for an incredible college career! New chapter… @phillies thank you for the opportunity, it’s time to get to work!

          1. Here’s the preseason report on Jonathan Hughes from D1 Baseball.com:

            Fifth-year senior righthander Jonathan Hughes finally looks ready to harness the talent that made him a second-round pick out of high school back in 2015. After posting a 2.46 ERA in five starts as a freshman, Hughes went down with elbow surgery, and his stuff and command weren’t quite the same over the next three years, when he posted ERAs north of 5 each year. But in the fall, Hughes was simply electrifying, attacking the strike zone at 92-95 and bumping 96 with a high spin-rate fastball in the 2400-2500 rpm range. He also showed as good a slider as you’ll see in college baseball, a wipeout pitch in the 83-86 range with a ridiculous spin rate between 2900 and 3100 rpm. And he even showed good feel for an 83-85 changeup that induced a couple swing-and-misses. The Jackets need him to blossom into a bonafide Friday night ace.

  36. Brandon McIlwain (former 2 sport prep superstar I wrote about above) has signed with the Mets. Good lottery ticket acquisition for them.

  37. Hinkie, I remember the post you wrote on Sullivan. Good call! I want to say thank you again for all of the work you do educating me about the draft prospects each year. I really appreciate it, as I am sure most of us do. It is not only a lot of work by you, but terrific stuff as well.

  38. Phillies very active as predicted in the UDFA market,
    …..so far 8 signees….trail only Red Sox (11) and Cubs (9)

  39. Philadelphia Phillies

    R1 (15): Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (Oregon)
    R3 (87): Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas
    R4 (116): Carson Ragsdale, RHP, South Florida
    R5 (146): Baron Radcliff, OF, Georgia Tech

    The Phillies were tied to upside arms with their first pick and took maybe the highest upside arm in the draft in prep RHP Abel. He flashes three plus pitches and checks all the boxes; it’s just a risky demographic, and no one saw him pitch in person this spring. I’m the low guy on SS Martin, but the raw tools — 80 speed, will play up the middle, solid average raw power — are outrageous for a college player from the SEC taken in the third round. RHP Ragsdale is another upside play, a 22-year-old, 6-foot-8 righty with Tommy John history but an upper-90s heater and a solid average slider that likely fits in relief. RF Radcliff might have the most raw power in the whole draft, with the top single exit velo and longest ball hit in the draft class, per TrackMan.

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