2020 Draft Discussion: June 10th and 11th

This is the Phuture Phillies 2020 Draft Discussion for comments about the upcoming draft.

The Phillies have the fifteenth overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second round pick when they signed free agent pitcher Zach Wheeler.  They also lost  $500,000 in international bonus pool money.

The Phillies’ total draft bonus pool is $5,444,200 ($5,716,410 if you consider the 5% overage before penalties kick in).

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:     15  – $3,885,800
  •   3rd:     87 –     $689,300
  •   4th:   116 –     $497,500
  •   5th:   146 –     $371,600

Schedule (All Times ET)

Wednesday, June 10 – 7:00 PM on the MLB Network and ESPN
Day 1
The first 37 picks – Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A
Thursday, June 11 – 5:00 PM on the MLB Network and ESPN2
Day 2
Round 2 (pick #38) thru the end of the fifth and final round

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.

This may serve as the only place for draft discussion this year.  I don’t really see a need to publish daily articles during a two day draft of only five rounds.  The weekly articles seem like overkill when we only have to track 4 picks.  However, this draft is a unique situation.  I’ll reconsider as necessary.

As in previous years, draft signings (and this year non-drafted free agent (NDFA) signings) will be tracked here – 2020 Draft Tracker.

Just a reminder, the Phillies have been particularly active signing NDFAs in recent years.  A few years ago, they signed LHP Josh Taylor as an NDFA in 2014 and flipped him to Arizona along with RHP Chris Oliver and their #9 International Signing Slot for the Diamondbacks #1 International Signing slot in the 2015-16 signing period.  Back then slots had dollar values attached.  That gave them the money to sign OF Jhailyn Ortiz.

Last season, the Phillies signed 11 NDFAs (RHP Connor Hinchliffe, Tyler Burch, Albertus Barber, Aidan Anderson, DJ Jefferson, LHP Brian Marconi, Riley Wilson, Olvis Genoa, Brenden Kudlinski, SS Sal Gozzi, Kevin Picardo) and at least 4 international free agents (RHP Josh Gessner, LHP Samuel Aldeghari, Jhorjan, Uziel Viloria) in June.  Gessner was signed to a reported $850,000 bonus.

This year, however, there is a hard cap on bonuses to NDFAs of $20,000.

192 thoughts on “2020 Draft Discussion: June 10th and 11th

  1. Cannot sign undrafted players before 9AM Sunday, June 14,
    …in fact cannot talk to any undrafted players between end of draft on Thursday 11 June until 9AM Sunday….also undrafted players cannot be offered any “‘special inducements beyond the standard player contract, modest contingency bonuses and scholarships through the continuing education program.”

    1. College seniors only…

      4 player’s drafted, should be easy to remember all their names…
      I think a college pitcher will be the pick…

      1. Yeah agree…a college pitcher would appear the likely selection.
        Hinkie mentioned Jarvis earlier and he seems to be one they may want to invest in.
        Crochet, Cavalli and maybe even Mlodzinski could also be pitchers they have scouted and could ring their bell.
        I liked the other Georgia pitcher before the seasons were start…Wilcox…but not sure now without any season to go by.

    2. Yeah, this just seems mean. This is the one area where the Phillies were actually better than other teams. I’ve heard that they are going to be active, though. That was the nudge I need to get the Tracker together this year. We’ll see.

  2. Thanks for this thread, Jim.

    I’ve tried to concoct a Phillies draft by following this FO’s usual MO (proven college bat … followed by no pick(s) … followed by a few higher upside players).

    ROUND 1: Austin Wells C Univ of Arizona … I’ve posted a few times already that Austin Wells makes a ton of sense for the Phillies at 1-15. Wells slashed .353/.462/.552 as a freshman and .375/.527/.589 as a soph this year. In addition, the LH hitting catcher was one of the top offensive performers on the Cape last summer (.308/.389/.526, 7 HR with a wood bat there). He’s probably not a catcher long term, but the bat should be loud enough to allow the young man to play LF/1B/DH. Like Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott, Wells is a former Las Vegas HS star. To top it all off, Brian Barber selected Wells in the 35th round of the 2018 draft as part of the NYY’s FO/scouting department.

    ROUND 2: Pick was forfeited for the signing of Zack Wheeler. I think we’re all fine with that.

    ROUND THREE: Hugh Fisher LHP Vanderbilt … was considered a potential first round pick for 2020 before falling victim to TJ about eight months ago. The lanky (6’5″, 190 lb) lefty features a mid 90’s FB, plus SL, and an avg CH all from a funky lower slot delivery. At Vandy, Fisher has totaled just 44 IP, 37 H, 27 BB, 54 K.

    1. ROUND 4: Nick Frasso RHP Loyola Marymount … is one of my favorite under the radar guys for the draft. Frasso bounced between the rotation and the BP his first two seasons in college and put up impressive numbers (116.2 IP, 82 H, 34 BB, 147 K). This season, he made two starts as LMU’s Friday night starter. His numbers dipped just a little (8.2 IP, 12, 3 BB, 11 K), but the big (6’5″, 200 lb) RHP has displayed a quality FB (93-95 T97), and solid secondaries (83-85 SL, 86-88 CH, mid 70’s CB). Frasso has lots of room to fill out & add even more velo. He’s also one of the most athletic pitchers in the country. He was a HS basketball star (check out what he did during a rain delay on the Cape last summer at the 13:42 mark below).

      1. ROUND 5: Spencer Strider RHP Clemson … is a guy who I haven’t seen mentioned on anyone’s list. The 6′ 0″, 195 lb hurler missed the 2019 season with TJ, but returned to make four starts this spring. Strider has a lively FB that hit 97 a few months ago. He pairs it with a swing and miss CH, and an avg breaker. At Clemson, Strider has registered 63 IP, 53 H, 38 BB, 89 K. The kid is a RS soph, but he’ll turn 22 YO in October.

  3. Two days after the draft ends, teams can begin signing UDFA’s. Most clubs will probably sign about five or six of these players. This season and next, (as Jim noted) those players can only receive signing bonuses of 20-thousand dollars. As Romus mentioned, teams are also banned from promising prospective UDFA’s future payments, gifts, or hiring family members or friends. With all that said, what can the Phillies do to attract players who went unpicked?

    I think Matt Klentak and Brian Barber have a few selling points:

    * Although I think (and posted last week) the club should have waited until the UDFA recruiting period was over before cutting 27 MiLB players … the fact that John Middleton has made a commitment to not furlough any full time employees through the end of October is a good look for the Phillies. It could help attract players, coaches, scouts, and FO personnel going forward.

    * The team will only draft four players. Most other clubs will draft at least five, and some will select as many as seven.

    * The Phillies farm system is among the bottom third in MLB. That should lead to an easier possible path to the big leagues.

    * Geography. The Phillies could have a leg up on players from the area.

    I’ve come up with a list of candidates.

    Note: the NCAA has given all players an additional year of eligibility because of the shortened/lost 2020 season. In all likelihood, most kids not drafted next week will return to school for another shot at getting a signing bonus of more than 20-thousand dollars in next year’s 20 round draft. Most UDFA’s will be 22 YO’s who are afraid of getting a senior sign bonus of less than 20-thousand dollars next year, or (maybe) a younger player (21 YO) who isn’t keen on paying another year’s worth of (partial) tuition (most college players only receive partial scholarships).

    * Joey Lancellotti RHP UNC … was the #2 HS player in Pennsylvania in 2017. The Penn Charter grad is not a large kid (5′ 11″, 200 lbs), but he carries a big FB (sits 95-96 out of the BP), and pairs it with a sharp low 80’s SL. UNC used him mostly as a reliever in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, he was moved to the rotation and got four starts before the arrival of Carona Virus. During his time as a Tar Heel, Lancellotti has totaled 115 IP, 86 H, 55 BB, 120 K. He’s not bad with a bat in his hands either. He hit 2 HR’s as a DH this truncated season. Not only is the 22 YO a Philadelphia kid, but Brian Barber was part of the NYY’s FO that scouted and selected him in the 34th round last year (Lancellotti obviously did not sign).

    1. * Brandon McIlwain OF Cal … is a local kid that you may (or may not) remember I wrote about last year. He has a complicated story, and has made some terrible career decisions. I’ll try to keep it short: McIlwain was one of the most decorated prep athletes in the country in 2015-16. While at Council Rock North, he was not only a Perfect Game All-American baseball player, he was also the Gatorade Football Player Of The Year in Pennsylvania. He made Keith Law’s very early top 30 list for the 2016 MLB draft … but … (and this is where he made his first disastrous career decision) McIlwain removed himself from that summer’s draft by graduating HS early (January 2016) and heading to the Univ of South Carolina to play CF and QB for the Gamecocks. Things didn’t work out for him on either the diamond or gridiron, and, after two seasons, McIlwain transferred to Cal. On the left coast, the young man got two starts under center for the Bears football team, but was eventually moved to RB (where his PT dwindled). His baseball career at Cal began last year when he slashed .258/.309/.435 in just 63 AB’s (missed lots of time with a broken foot). Despite the modest amount of AB’s, the Marlins drafted the 6’1″, 205 lb RH hitting OFer in the 27th round last June. McIlwain made another terrible decision by not signing with Miami. He, instead, returned to Cal for his RSjr season in 2020. RUH-ROH! COVID-19 allowed him only 55 AB’s in 2020. He slashed a meager .200/.333/.273.
      McIlwain probably cost himself between two and three million dollars in 2016. He likely refused 125-thousand dollars last summer. He turned 22 YO last month, football is no longer in the cards for him, and it looks like he’s now locked into a 20-thousand dollar bonus (whether he takes it now or next year).

      * Gianluca Dalatri RHP UNC … was probably the second best prep arm from NJ (Monmouth County) in 2016 (behind only Jason Groome). The 6’6″, 240 lb “righty” was impressive in his first season at UNC (Freshman All-American), but has been slowed by injuries since then. He amassed just 27 IP in 2018 because of a stress reaction to his throwing elbow, and only 32 IP in 2019 due to hip surgery. He was still waiting to make his first appearance in 2020 when the pandemic hit. Dalatri throws in the low 90’s, and really controls the K-zone (1.96 BB per 9 IP in college). During his career as a Tar Heel, Dalatri has gone 156 IP, 154 H, 34 BB, 151 K. the young man turned 22 YO in April.

      1. * Peter Matt OF UPenn … is a career .311/.387/.427 slasher. The 6’2″, 215 lb native of Larchmont, NY really came into his own over the last two seasons. During that time, Matt put up a .348/.412/.513 line, and was named All-Ivy League twice. Matt’s also got some speed (6 triples last year tied a school record), and is a plus defender in RF. He committed no errors and totaled nine OF assists over the last two seasons. He racked up an almost unbelievable 21 career OF assists as a Quaker.

        1. Christian Scafidi RHP UPenn … is a native of Blackwood, NJ, and a college teammate of Peter Matt. Like Matt, Scafidi is a two-time All-Ivy League recipient. As a matter of fact, the 22 YO (will turn 23 YO in August) was named the Ivy League Pitcher Of The Year in 2019 (68.2 IP, 60 H, 18 BB, 59 K), and was on his way to back-to-back awards in 2020 (15 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 13 K, 0.00 ERA) before the season was lost. The 6’4″, 245 lb RHP is scheduled to play for Notre Dame in 2021 as a grad transfer. I wonder if he’d forego South Bend if the Phillies offered him 20-thousand dollars?

          Scafidi is not only UPenn’s “ace”, but (maybe just as importantly) he’s the club’s leader on and off the field. He’s also got a Larry Anderson type personality (#14 in the tweet below).

          1. Jordan DiValerio RHP Saint Joseph’s … is a kid (and this is just a hunch on my part) that may be the likeliest Phillies UDFA signing on this list. The 6′ 1″, 200 lb thrower is from central PA, and will turn 23 YO in November. DiValerio carries a low 90’s FB that will touch 94, a 78-82 MPH fading CH that flashes abv avg, and an inconsistent slurvish breaking ball at 76-79 MPH all from a three-quarter slot. The St. Joes’s Friday night starter was having a great season in 2020 before the shutdown. He totaled 22.2 IP, 16 H, 5 BB, 33 K, .193 OBA. The highlight to his season was an upset win vs 24th ranked Ohio St when he tallied 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 9 K.

            Jordan Cozart IF Murray St … plays some 2B and some 3B. The 5’11”, 175 lb RH hitter has done nothing but rake in college. During two seasons in JUCO and two seasons at Murray State, Cozart has slashed .358/.442/.555. The Evansville, Indiana native turns 23 in September so he’s very likely to sign this summer. See Cozart hit a HR at the 1:33 mark below.

            1. William Simoneit C Wake Forest … before spending the 2020 season as a Demon Deacon, Simoneit got an Ivy League education/degree from Cornell. He’s a big boy (6’4″, 235 lb) with a thunderous bat. He slashed .313/.379/.492 during his first three seasons at Cornell. He was even better for Wake this season (.377/.462/.642). Simoneit turns 24 YO in October so he’s a slam dunk to sign with someone.

              Chris Alleyne CF Maryland … is a kid I’m throwing on this list despite the fact that he’s still a junior, and is still 21 YO (for another six months). I have no reason to believe he would take 20-thousand dollars now instead of returning to school … except that maybe he might want to play for his home town team. Alleyne is a little (5′ 9″, 175 lb) spark plug who starred at SS as a prepster at Chestnut Hill Academy, but has moved to CF as a Terrapin. Alleyne did next to nothing during his freshman and sophomore seasons at Maryland (.202/.319/.364), but he broke out in a big way in 2020. He was slashing .333/.413/.500 in 68 AB’s, and was dazzling with his glove before the sudden halt to the season. Again … Alleyne has every reason to return to Maryland for a fourth year, and try to build upon his 2020 season … but … it can’t hurt Klentak and Barber to recruit the kid.

            2. Hinkie ..Jordan Cozart definitely has put up some excellent metrics….but it is Ohio Valley Conf. pitching that he has faced.
              That is rocco’s number one rule…..what kind of pitching has the kid faced!

              http://ovcsports.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=785

              If he were in one of the major conferences then I think his results would be more saleable.

            3. Romus … this is true, but I’m throwing his name out as a 20-thousand dollar UDFA signing. Those guys are going to have some warts.

            4. Hinkie….ok…did not realize that…..yeah, sure why not take a chance with these guys…..could get a diamond in the rough.

  4. Hinkie…..5th round if still on the board…..could be Shane Drohan…former Phillies pick a few years ago..out of Florida St Seminole program…does have some athletic ability…. former HS QB.

  5. Hinkie, where’s the kid who threw 103? I thought you had us drafting him in the 3rd rd in an earlier Mock Draft. Do you think he goes before then?

  6. Shane Drohan and Luke Little are possibilities. The Phillies scouting staff is familiar with Drohan, having drafted him once before. I was reading Jim Salisbury’s story on Brian Barber (first published in February), and Barber specifically mentions the team will find velo. Little has plenty of that.

  7. Here’s the Jim Salisbury piece on Phillies new Amateur Scouting Director Brian Barber. He likes velo and loud tools (among other things).

  8. Let’s pretend Matt Klentak wakes up Wednesday and decides to use a little gel to spike up his hair, skip the sport coat, and forget about everything he’s ever done on draft day the previous four years. Or maybe John Middleton has given Brian Barber complete control (Barber’s big hire has been David Crowson from the Marlins where he was influential in identifying Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, and JT Realmuto). The Phillies draft could look like this.

    ROUND 1: Nick Bitsko RHP Central Bucks East … was originally a top prospect for the 2021 draft, but in January, reclassified to graduate in 2020. Because of that, Bitsko hasn’t been scouted as thoroughly as most of the other prep players available. However, the 6′ 4″, 220 lb hurler has released some incredible BP video that features Rapsodo data indicating the 17 YO already throws an elite FB comparable to Justin Verlander, a plus CB comparable to Chris Paddack, and a plus SL comparable to Luis Castillo.

    ROUND 2: Zack Wheeler

    ROUND 3: Kala’i Rosario OF Hawaii HS … is another analytics darling. The RH swinging OFer is a young (17 YO for another month) kid with an loud bat. The 6′ 1″, 205 lb prepster has produced exit velos of up to 113 MPH, and registered the fastest bat speed of any HS hitter at last summer’s Area Code Games. While at the event, Rosario beat a loaded field (including Blaze Jordan) to win the HR Derby. The kid is loaded with upside, and appears to be signable (given his college commitment to Cal Baptist).

    1. ROUND 4: Blake Brown RHP UNC Asheville … has put up pedestrian numbers in four college seasons (137 IP, 123 H, 108 BB, 152 K). He’s worked mostly 92-95). However, the 6′ 1″, 195 lb hurler has used his time in quarantine to make a mechanical change to his delivery/hand position, and has produced video to show eye popping results. Brown is now hitting 100 MPH, and the spin rates on the pitch allow for more than 20 inches of vMOV (vertical movement). Brown also shows a plus SL (87 MPH), and the reports indicate the mechanical adjustments have produced better command as well. The young man is three months shy of his 22nd birthday so he may come at a discount (senior sign).

      ROUND 5: Jack Wassel 3B Univ of Minnesota … is a kid who was very ordinary his first three years in college, but skipped summer ball in 2019 to work with a hitting coach to make tweaks to his stance and the fundamentals of his swing in an effort to improve his plate coverage and get rid of a loop that was preventing him from getting to certain zones. The results speak for themselves, as the Minnesota third baseman slashed .364/.475/.591 with two home runs and seven doubles while drawing 14 walks over 80 plate appearances this spring, improving on his line of .243/.356/.378 over 224 PA in 2019. The 6′ 2″, 205 lb LH swinging 3Bman has the arm to handle the hot corner, though his glovework remains a work in progress. Wassel will turn 23 in January, and is another candidate to take an under slot bonus.

    1. Bitsko and Mitchell are my top two as well, although I would also be excited if they took Crow-Armstrong.

      1. They do seem to have quite the advantage when it comes to being classified as a ‘small market’ team…and getting that extra high pick each year after the first or second round
        Lets see…Dakota Hudson, Jack Flaherty, and Stephen Piscotty since 2012…..all seem to do well for them being a small market team

  9. Eric Longenhagen’s mock 2.0

    He has the Phillies picking Cade Cavalli (and also considering Tyler Soderstrom).

  10. I would be shocked if the Phillies don’t go with a college pitcher or hitter in the 1st..

    Interesting note from a friend who happens to be a sports agent says a very robust HS presence and college juniors are considering Japan this year over the MLB draft. The agent says better upfront money, better development due to the MiLB being in flux and finally the very strong possibility of a work stoppage in 2022 stunting the development of players for a year..

    1. The ‘Carter Stewart Effect”…..NPB may however have to be more flexible with contract parameters ….most of all HS signees have MLB as the ultimate goal and will want the opportunity to be released from contracts if the opportunity should arise to come back to the states and play in the MLB.,
      Stewart signs a $6M , six-year contract….I do not know if he can be released from that contract earlier than the six years.

  11. Kiley McDaniel has a story on ESPN.com today profiling the top prospects by analytics.
    Here are the Top 20 arms. The list was compiled by McDaniel and Zach Day at TrackMan Basebal,and was compiled by using some of its pitch-grading algorithms, comparable to what clubs use. Only pitchers who threw in parks with TrackMan equipment installed were eligible (Nick Bitsko was not eligible).

    1. Max Meyer, Minnesota
    2. Asa Lacy, Texas A&M
    3. Clayton Beeter, Texas Tech
    4. Garrett Crochet, Tennessee
    5. Emerson Hancock, Georgia
    6. Tanner Witt, Texas HS (2759 rpm average, 2990 rpm peak curveball spin rates)
    7. Tanner Burns, Auburn
    8. Logan Allen, Florida International
    9. Reid Detmers, Louisville
    10. Mason Erla, Michigan State
    11. Bryce Jarvis, Duke
    12. Masyn Winn, Texas HS
    13. Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
    14. Christian Chamberlain, Oregon State
    15. Slade Cecconi, Miami
    16. Brannon Jordan, South Carolina
    17. Jared Jones, California HS
    18. Mick Abel, Oregon HS
    19. Cole Wilcox, Georgia
    20. Nate Wohlgemuth, Oklahoma HS

    1. With the Phillies being more analytically advanced these days, perhaps this lack of data on Cavalli would keep Klentak from selecting him if he’s not in the top 20?

      1. That is a good possibility. MLB.com has him ranked at 22nd…10th best pitcher….so he may not be on their radar anyway at 15..

  12. It always amazes me Hinkie that there is such a disparity among analysts. Cavalli is not even on the list, and there are a number of Mocks that don’t have him reaching 1.15. Crochet is all over the place. Great stuff, but profiled by many as a Reliever, and worry about him staying healthy. I want a Pitcher for us. I would love Cavalli to be there, and would be happy with Bitsko, but much of what I know about this draft comes from reading the really great stuff you post. We are a day away. Can you give us the 3 players you think we are most likely to select? Thanks!

    1. Yes. Oklahoma does have TrackMan. Cade Cavalli recorded the 4th highest recorded FB at 98.9 MPH (that’s a one time throw, not his avg). I’m guessing it might be his spin rates that keep him out of the top 20.

      Cade Cavalli would still be an excellent choice for the Phillies. He has two 70-grade pitches (FB & CB), and he has the body that should be able to shoulder a high amount of innings. I just don’t think he’ll be available at 1-15.

  13. I read a lot of draft guys (not just Law, McDaniel, Longenhagen, the MLB Pipeline duo). A couple of the lesser known draftnicks released their final mocks this morning, and both have the Phillies picking Nick Bitsko.

    Both mocks also mention Pete Crow Armstrong in contention for the Phillies.

  14. RJ Anderson of CBS Sports posted an hour ago that buzz within MLB is that one team among the top 10 picks will likely punt this year’s 1st round by selecting an unsignable player, then go hard for rounds 2-5. That should make things ‘velly intelesting’ tomorrow night for the teams following whoever the mystery club is, no?

    1. I saw the forecast was Crochet from TN for the Phillies… To me he’s a HUGE reach in this draft at #15 with all the other position player and pitching talent.. My guess Crochet goes in the 2nd… Maybe the 3rd but doubtful.

  15. very interesting v1. I really like the “zag” portion, as I think there will be a couple of surprises. The Orioles taking Bitsko by underslotting their first pick and then overpaying for him, is similar to what we tried, and which hasn’t worked out great, with Gowdy being injured.

    1. matt13….do not see any deviation in this very unique once in a lifetime draft. All scouting depts and GMs, hamstrung by lockdowns and closures, IMO, will be very risk averse and just stick to safe picks as they are MLB ranked..
      I see little ‘zag’, especially in the first round.

  16. https://omny.fm/shows/high-hopes/breaking-down-the-mlb-draft-with-keith-law

    James Seltzer and Jack Fritz podcast had Keith Law on last night. With respect to the Phillies, Law said that it is not accurate that they are linked to Bitsko. Law thinks the Phillies are going to be choosing between one or two high school hitters — maybe Ed Howard — or a college pitcher. Doesn’t think they’ll be taking a high school arm.

    Law has Crochet at 39. Says he is probably a reliever. Should not be taken in the first round.

    Law says he thinks that Cavalli will be gone when the Phillies pick.

    Law says Pete Crow-Armstrong was playing really well this Spring when the season got cut short (note: his HS played 10 games). Says he got a lot stronger and was still running really well. May be the best defensive player in the entire draft class. Has heard Jacoby Ellsbury as a comp for Crow-Armstrong. Potential 70 defender, can really run, not going to hit for huge power, but strong enough to make plenty of hard contact in the big leagues. Has heard a couple of scouts say that Crow-Armstrong is a high school player who is like a college player, because of the defense, and because there is enough confidence in his ability to hit because of his track record in high school and with Team USA.

    Law would rather have Ed Howard over Bryson Stott.

    1. PCA scouting report almost identical to Mickey Moniak in 2016…check it out.
      Just a new year…but the same player.

      PCA……..18…03/25/2002…Ht-6’1″…WT-180
      Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)
      HIT-55…PWR-40…RUN-60…ARM-55…FLD-60…OVRALL-50

      Mickey M…..18… 5/13/1998…Ht-6’2″…Wt-190
      HT:- 6′ 2″ Wt- 190 lb.
      Scouting grades:
      Hit: 55 – PWR: 45…Run: 60… Arm: 50 FLD-: 60… OVRALL-: 55

  17. Romus, don’t you buy the thought that a team is going to try something like that Orioles idea?

    1. matt13:
      No….not really,
      …now the Os, for example, do have a new GM and he may want to try that….he has a multi-year contract and so his rookie year he can experiment….but I think because of the little data that teams could accumulate and regurgitate this year on HS players….he will play it safe.

  18. Keith Law just put out his mock. Ed Howard for us (with Bitsko not going in the first rd). I still think Cavalli would be a good pick

    1. Good article on Howard. Easy to get excited about him. Seems like a JP Crawford type pick. And I mean the upside outcome, not the struggling outcome. Not being snarky.

      Also he was a Little League World Series star. His team won the USA championship in 2014.

      Six years after Jackie Robinson West, Ed Howard is a surefire MLB prospect https://theathletic.com/1648837/2020/03/19/six-years-after-jackie-robinson-west-ed-howard-is-a-big-time-mlb-prospect/?source=user_shared_article

      1. KLaw says: “Howard is one of the higher-ceiling prep guys in the draft class, and the Phillies have been linked to him as well as certain college arms, like Cavalli and even Slade Cecconi (the only team I heard linked to him). They are unlikely to take a high school arm.”

        The thing that most stands out to me is the last line. Just days ago, Law was definitive that the Phillies would not be drafting a prep arm. He said, “They’re not taking a HS pitcher with that pick, nor should they” on the High Hopes podcast. Today, he’s saying they are unlikely to take a HS arm.”

        We’ll see what happens. The big question,for me, is … what kind of power does Brian Barber (and David Crowson) wield in this year’s draft?

        1. Here’s Kiley McDaniel’s final mock.

          15. Philadelphia Phillies

          Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma: Crochet and Cavalli look like the priorities here and a college lean is expected.

          .

          … so there’s that.

          1. Hinkie…my final mock:
            Four collegian arms for 2020
            1.-Crochet or Cavalli
            3. Mason Erla-RHP
            4. Shane Drohan-LHP
            5. Jake Smith-RHP

            1. Romus … like the redrafts of Drohan and Smith. A couple of months ago, I posted a list of kids the Phillies or Brian Barber once drafted, but failed to sign. Here are some of the names I came up with:

              Former Phillies picks:

              * Kyle Hurt
              * Shane Drohan
              * Billy Sullivan
              * DJ Carpenter
              * Jake Smith
              * Jonathan Jones
              * Matheu Nelson
              * Thomas Little
              * Jalen Battles

              Former NYY/Brian Barber picks:

              * Bryce Jarvis
              * Austin Wells
              * Tanner Burns
              * Alika Williams
              * Joey Lancellotti
              * Andrew Abbott

            2. Also … for me … I would make Hugh Fisher and Nick Frasso priorities after the first round. I really like Frasso.

            3. Yep…..they already have a lot of non-baseball info on these previously drafted kids…overall attitudes, personality make-ups, a certain sense of confidence and drive, poise and what not. So they may go in that direction when and if these kids are still on the board when their selection comes up.

        2. Saw Howard being interviewed on MLB network last week and he really did well for a high school kid. I was impressed with how he answered their questions and how he carried himself. Came off as confident but not cocky.

          I would be fine if he ends up being their selection at 15 even with their history with high school picks.

  19. The first Phillies draft that I followed was when they took Wayne Gomes in 1993. I was hooked after that. When was the first draft that got you hooked?

    1. The Bull out of Chicago suburbs HS…hit a 500 ft LF HR on top of the classroom buildings in 1968.

    2. 97 with jd boo. I was so upset that the phillies wouldn’t just pay him, but that was just continuing the tradition of the phillies upsetting me.

  20. Callis and Mayo did their mocks for mlb.com. Callis has us with Hendrick and Mayo with Garrett Mitchell. So we’ve seen Howard, Hendrick, Mitchell, PCA, Jarvis, Cavalli, Crochet, Soderstrom and Bitsko. V1, the first I remember is Jeff Jackson over a College bat from Auburn named Frank Thomas!

  21. MLB drafts are crazy. 2019 Erik Miller was slotted late 1st Comp/early 2nd round and there he was in the 4th for the Phillies. I see he was to start the year at Hi-A and likely a AA/AAA finish. So gems and steals are there past the first.

  22. Baseball America did 8 mocks. Their prediction for the Phillies over the 8 drafts:

    15. Phillies
    Mick Abel
    Patrick Bailey
    Austin Hendrick
    Nick Bitsko
    Tyler Soderstrom
    Patrick Bailey
    Patrick Bailey
    Patrick Bailey

  23. I like the idea of taking Bitsko. I’m not sure he signs for #15 money which I would be ok with. Getting the #16 next year would be more bonus pool in a “regular” draft.

  24. Eric Lonenhagen is posting picks on twitter earlier than what is on Mlb channel, in case you want the info early

  25. Yes!!!!!

    Finally we take a high ceiling HS pitcher. I love this pick. I have been pounding the table that we need big arms over the past few years. Finally. Love it

  26. Abel! So, the last category, HS Pitcher, we would take is our puck! Cavalli, Bitsko, Soderstrom, Mitchell all left on board. I wish I had confidence in what we do!

  27. Great pick, there’s no way the prior scouting director makes this pick. Change is definitely afoot and if they are going to make picks like this the organization is in great hands.

  28. Haven’t been on here in a few months. Hope all is well

    Now for my draft analysis: I’m glad we didn’t just go with the local kid. Keith Law says Abel is the best HS arm in the class, which is enough for me at 1.15

  29. posted this in the wrong thread but WHOOO!! Commented a couple weeks ago that I didn’t think the Phillies had the guts to make this pick, but I was gladly proven wrong. LOVE this pick.

  30. Zero chance Johnny A makes that pick, our first HS P in first round since Drabek right? Not counting Comp picks.

  31. First time posting but excited about this pick. Interesting that Keith Law had him as the #16 prospect with this analysis;

    “Abel is the best high school pitcher in the class, which is a bit peculiar to say since he never got on a mound this spring. He established himself over the last two summers as a capital-g Guy, regularly working 92-95 mph with a power curveball in the low 80s, getting on top of the ball well in a delivery that takes advantage of his 6-foot-5 frame. He also has a solid-average changeup that he hasn’t had to use much, and of course, didn’t get to show off any progress he might have made this offseason because his school’s entire schedule was canceled. High school pitchers are inherently risky, but among that group, Abel seems to offer the best mixture of high upside (No. 2 starter, if not more) and probability (if healthy, he’s almost certainly a starter), and should be one of just a couple of prep arms to go in the first round.”

  32. I’m turning this crap off.. it’s about signability. Money. And screwing the team behind you. The MLB Network guys are doing their best to make every MLB team pick sound brilliant but they look at each other and you know it’s b.s. Boston’s pick was hilarious..

  33. I love the Miller pick for the Dodgers at 29. Wish the Phillies would have taken him him.. I’m guessing Abel gave us a big discount at 15.

    1. Why? A high school pitcher doesn’t need to give a discount. I hope they can get him signed. This is a kid who thought he might go higher than 15. He might want to be paid like it.

  34. Mick Abel comps from MLB network…
    One scouting report said Jack Flaherty.
    Dan O’Dowd says (gulp!) Justin Verlander.
    Al Leiter says Rick Porcello.

    For starters, I’m on board if those are the range of talent, floor to ceiling. And at #15, can we exhale that maybe we caught a break that the kid dropped into Klentak’s lap. Plus, he’s apparently got a head on his shoulders.

        1. Yeah. I love that comp. he has a workhorse body. Big kid. Looks effortless with throwing motion. Already 3 pitches with current grade of 50. Such a great pick. A kid with a real potential to be an Ace.

        2. One difference DanO’D failed to consider in that comp….Verlander was a college arm and already physically mature out of OD.
          A HS comp could be Flaherty/Greinke…..even Phillies own Zach Wheeler.

  35. Let’s say a 4.0 WAR means a player is a star… I’m wondering if there is data on how many 1st round HS pitchers in the last 10 years have a 4 or greater WAR, and as a percent of total HS pitcher selections?

    1. I(Heart):
      How about we do 2006 thru 2016,
      ..anything later for a HSer would be a miracle to the majors.
      However, also only career 4WAR or better, ilo of one year.
      2006-Kershaw and Jeffress
      2007-MadBum, Porcello and Jared Parker
      2008-Jake Odorizzi
      2009-Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller
      2010-Thor and Mike Foltynewicz
      2011-Jose Fernandez, Mike Fulmer, Joe Ross
      2012- Lucas Giolitto, Jose Berrios
      2013-no one
      2014-Jack Flaherty
      2015 and 2016-no one
      ….bottom line maybe 10 or 11 HSer drafted with some degree
      of career excellence.

  36. Hopefully today the Phillies use their 3rd-5th round picks on bats.. I’m still leery of our HS pitcher pick..What draft forecaster said “no way the Phillies take a high school arm? ” LOL..

      1. 8mark….two years in a row a top ten ranked prospect drops to the Phillies.
        Hopefully it works out.
        We all assumed a pitcher was on their radar…i though a college arm like a Crochet or Cavalli…Nats took Cavalli at 22…what does Rizzo know!
        Abel is a high ceiling guy……now he needs to stay healthy.
        Assume 2024 or 2025 he will be up..barring any injuries

      2. I wasn’t giving you a hard time. There was a national sports writer claiming “no way the Phillies take a HS pitcher.” I just couldn’t remember his name..

    1. That’s their MO, they love high schooler’s and that’s why you hardly ever see them in the majors. I’m running out of time, I’ve been waiting for years for their #1 picks to really be something.

      1. This may have been Bria barber’s decision.
        “From the very first day that I came over to the Phillies [in October],” Barber said, “I had a conversation with our area scout up there, Zach Friedman, and he just wanted to make sure that I knew who Mick Abel was and that he loved him and wanted us to have the opportunity to possibly select him at this time. Mick is a pitcher that I’ve known for over two years now and just one that I fell in love with the very first time that I ever saw him.

  37. For those with Athletic subs, nice article on Abel’s mentor and Phillies ties: https://theathletic.com/1866067/2020/06/11/mentor-helped-push-phillies-top-pick-mick-abel-to-become-best-prep-arm-in-draft/?source=emp_shared_article

    Excerpt: “Phillies amateur scouting director Brian Barber wouldn’t have been surprised if Abel had been drafted before No. 15, believing a lot of teams liked the prep pitcher. With a shortened, five-round draft — and the Phillies without a second-round selection — whether teams were risk averse or more inclined to take risks, particularly in the first round, was going to be an important factor in decisions. For a high school pitcher, the associated risk centers on Abel physically maturing and being able to handle the workload. The Phillies believe he potentially projects as a future workhorse and top of the rotation pitcher. They are not alone in that view. After commissioner Rob Manfred announced the selection, former Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd compared Abel to Justin Verlander on the MLB Network broadcast.

    “Right now, where his body is and its projection … to where it’s going to become — he’s a good athlete for a pitcher,” Barber said via Zoom. “He has quality stuff now, with every projection marker that we use (projecting) his stuff even improving more. We love the delivery. We love the way the arm works, the arm action. So there’s certain criteria that a high school pitcher, for me and for us, has to overcome, and Nick was able to exceed all those expectations that we have for those guys.”

    Unsurprisingly, Angelo and co. are bashing the decision lol

    1. Well yea, they could have drafted Babe Ruth and the WIP crowd would be complaining. That’s what their audience wants..

  38. Coming into the draft I kept saying “dont draft a HS” in the first. I would’ve went with Jarvis, BUT reading more up on this kid the more I like. The upside on him could be huge if everything goes right.

  39. I didn’t hear the complaints on WIP, but what is there to bash? No one knows how these things work out, but this seems to be a really good pick of a kid with a live FB and an elite Slider, with the body to project a TOR. What did Angelo think they should have done, not that he has any expertise? But, I am sure they had a “so-called expert” on. I am glad they took a shot on someone with a very high ceiling. Flaherty/Greinke, are guys who worked hard at their craft, and reading Abel talk about needing to work hard, “being obsessed with Baseball” was great to read.

    1. It was the whole — “don’t draft a HS pitcher!”– argument spread out over four hours and numerous guests/”so-called-experts”

      1. That’s just kind of a dumb argument. So are they saying they shouldn’t have drafted Cole Hamels? Ridiculous. The pick is growing on me a lot – I’m good with this. In other rounds they should continue to take the best player available, although I’d prefer they avoid HS bats, which they have shown NO institutional ability to identify and develop. But a stud HS pitcher? I’m good with that.

    2. matt13…..I understand the arguments ….the high risk on HS pitchers.
      But you just got to keep rolling the dice and hoping one day one works out.
      This kid’s ceiling is high, so go for it.

      1. Keep rolling the dice on First Round Picks? Sorry m8 that doesnt make sense, i dont know one thing about this kid, only negative i have is he is from Oregon, How many games a year to they play? He could be a stud, time will tell, but rolling the die isnt the way to build a good farm system

        1. rocco….so rocco what do you do?
          You have to draft somebody….and it is as they say…a ‘crapshoot’ anyways.
          He was ranked top ten in most rankings…..and falls to 15.
          Sure Cavalli was still on the board, who I liked…but he also had some health concerns.

          All teams try to minimize risks on that first pick…..but at some point you have to jump…and hope and trust the chute was packed correctly and opens.

        2. He’s from OR but he dominated not only there but at national showcases (against best HS competition possible) which is why they felt comfortable picking him. And yea they shouldn’t go high-risk with every 1st round pick but at the same time I don’t think anyone wants a roster full of Adam Haseleys…nice player but limited upside.

  40. Agreed Romus, This kid seems to have all the things they talk about, a repeatable, effortless delivery, command, of not just his FB, but a great Slider, the frame to add strength, highly coachable, and a high ceiling. The only knock is that he is a HS Pitcher. But, the more I read, the more I am glad we picked him. We want high end prospects? There is sometimes a bit of risk, but I give Barber credit. He loved the kid, and went with him. Where do you hope we go in Rd 3?

    1. matt13…here is a Zack Wheeler report from 2009:
      FB: High: 97-98 mph, Averages: 94-95, Has life and appears to explode past hitters when he throws it up the ladder. Throws a four-seamer and a two seamer he uses against RHBs. Both are plus-pitches. CB: 12-6 break and another plus-pitch. Does not command it in or out of the zone yet, but that will come in time. CU- Throws it in the mid-80s. As of now it is a slightly below average pitch, and he often telegraphs the pitch because it “slows” his arm down.
      Perfect Game at competitions: Big projection, 90-93 fastball at Perfect Game National, very effortless, three quality pitches, good command, 94 at WWBA, 92 at ECP, up to 95 at Aflac

      ……and the Giants drafted him at 6th or 7th back in 2009

      I think it was Barber’s pick….and Klentak put his faith in their scouting reports and judgement.
      Does Klentak no good……the kid if he does work out will probably be 4 years out minimum….Matt K will probably be gone by then….unless Phillies win a WS again.

  41. Abel’s older brother Kevin may have been the better of the two but kind of a sad story. Kevin threw approximately 250 pitches over four days as a freshman for Oregon St. Beavers when they won the CWS in 2018. Yet after that something wasn’t right. He skipped the Cape that summer. Took the fall off from practice and in the spring felt tightness in his foreman and they discovered the torn Ulnar nerve. With his medical redshirt I believe he has three years left but he didn’t pitch this year due to COVID.. So it will be interesting to watch him pitch next year and maybe (hopefully) head to Philadelphia one day to watch his younger brother pitch.. What might have been.

    1. Kevin Abel grew up in San Diego. He has one brother named Kyle. Mick Abel is not his brother.

      Agree that Kevin Abel is a sad story.

  42. Funny thing happened to me on the way to watching the draft last night. I took my dogs out in the afternoon. On my way down my driveway, I noticed something up in one of the bushes that line one side of the driveway. I wanted to pull it out, but it was probably 15 feet up in the bush. LIke a dummy, I climb on the back of one my cars, and grab for it (you can probably guess what happened next). I lost my footing and fell about five feet into the driveway and onto my shoulder. My dogs immediately rendered first aid (licking my face), and after a short period of time, I was able to diagnose nothing was broken/dislocated. I decided I was not interested in spending the night in the ER. Instead, I laid down and took a pain killer we had in the medicine cabinet from a previous incident. I ended up sleeping through a lot of the draft.

    About the pick:

    * two thumbs up for Kiely McDaniel who originally reported the Phillies were interested in HS pitchers (Bitsko and Abel), and continued to report that (right up until yesterday’s final mock when he gave the Phillies Cade Cavalli).

    * two thumbs down for Keith Law, who definitively declared the Phillies “will not take a prep pitcher, nor should they” on the High Hopes podcast. He was wrong on the first statement. It remains to be seen if he’s correct or not on the second part (“nor should they”) of that statement.

    * I don’t know if Nick Abel will end up a better MLB pitcher than Cade Cavalli or Bryce Jarvis, but I’m fine with the selection. I wouldn’t take a boom or bust prospect every year, but this team hasn’t taken a kid like this in a number of years/in way too long. Even in prospect procurement, it’s good to diversify your portfolio.

    I’d love to seen Brian Barber land Nick Frasso (like him a lot) or Hugh Fisher tonight.

  43. Well looks like the poll was a crapshot:
    …Nick Bitsko, 35.67% (56 votes)
    … Garrett Crochet, 24.2% (38 votes)
    …Bryce Jarvis, 17.2% (27 votes)
    …Cade Cavalli, .64% (12 votes)
    … Austin Hendrick, 6.37% (10 votes)
    …Garrett Mitchell, 5.73% (9 votes)
    …Patrick Bailey, 3.18% (5 votes)
    ………………not one Abel

  44. Abel probably slots in at #3 on the Phillies prospect list. Behind Howard and Bohm, and in front of Stott and Morales.

    1. Also going to assume the team gets at least a marginal discount on the kid. Slot is 3.85 million. I’m going to guess Abel agrees to 3.5 million.

    2. That sounds about right. It could all change quickly next year I guess (whenever minor league ball returns), but that’s where I would have him now too.

      1. MLB could start the AFL a little earlier and go a little longer, so as to get a little something from this lost season

  45. I hope you are doing better, Hinkie, I was wondering where you were. You have touted Frasso for some time, so I would like us to get your guy today. I also like the big kid named Little.

  46. In a typical year, would he have been a top-10 pick? Or was he picked right where he should have been?

  47. Here is a list of all of the High School pitchers drafted within the top 15 picks (and signed) from 2005 to 2014. I stopped at 2014 because HS pitchers need time to show an impact.

    The net result, 40% of HS pitchers drafted in the top 15 were either a star or a real stud pitcher. I have no idea how 40% rates relative to other positions, but seems like a good number to me.

    Elite/Star: 3 (15%)
    Clayton Kershaw (2006, #7)
    Madison Bumgarner (2007, #10)
    José Fernández (2011, #14) **

    Stud Pitcher: 5 (25%)
    Jarrod Parker (2007, #9) **
    Zack Wheeler (2009, #6)
    Jameson Taillon (2010, #2)
    Max Fried (2012, #7)
    Archie Bradley (2011, #7)

    Good Pitcher: 1 (5%)
    Dylan Bundy (2011, #4)

    Bust: 11 (55%)
    Kasey Kiker (2006, #12)
    Phillippe Aumont (2007, #11)
    Ethan Martin (2008, #15)
    Matt Hobgood (2009, #5)
    Jacob Turner (2009, #9)
    Tyler Matzek (2009, #11)
    Nick Travieso (2012, #14)
    Kohl Stewart (2013, #4)
    Trey Ball (2013, #7)
    Tyler Kolek (2014, #2)
    Kodi Medeiros (2014, #12)

    ** Means injury/death shortened career, but stats were great when they played.

    1. I’m not v1, but if I had to guess it’s because each of them had at least one well-above average season.

      Taillon in 2018 had a 3.20 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 122 ERA+ over 191 IP.
      Parker in 2012 had a 3.47, 3.43, and 112 over 181.1 IP.
      Fried in 2019 “only” had a 4.02, 3.72, 113 over 165.2 IP, but he’s young and showed even better in his debut.
      And Bradley flamed out as a starter, but has showed some dominance as a reliever. In 2017, he had marks of 1.73, 2.61, 273 (not a typo) over 73 IP.

      Fried could turn out to go downhill from here, and a reliever obviously isn’t what you hope for out of a top pick. But considering the attrition rates on prospects, those are good results.

  48. Coming up on the third round.
    I’m guessing the Phillies will pick 2 college players and 1 HS or JUCO kid with their three remaining picks.
    I’m looking at Nick Frasso or Hugh Fisher in the third. The other guy who I’m surprised is still available (and would be happy to see Brian Barber take) is Clemson LHP Sam Weatherly.

    1. Mets …taking Ginn may be a steal in the long run.
      They seem to be taking a chance or two with this pick but could pay off.

  49. Hinkie, had we not lost our 2d rd pick, not that I wouldn’t take Wheeler again, I would, but in a world with no loss of picks, who would you have picked among those available at around 53?

    1. matt … the guys picked at 54 and 55 would have looked great in the Phillies farm system.

      54. Cardinals: Masyn Winn
      55. Nationals: Cole Henry (I liked him as a possible 1-15 pick)

  50. I have a feeling that the guy the Dodgers got at # 66, Clayton Beeter, is going to be really good.

  51. FWIW, I heard and ignored a lot of rumors before the draft. Morning of day one, I heard (from the same source) Mitchell (UCLA, OF), early afternoon Howard (HS, SS). Howard went to the Cubs at #16, Mitchell to Brewers at #20.

    1. No…..not that I can recall…we have traded for more international money….but Matt K has never gone in for a CBA or CBB pick

      Speaking of those picks for small market teams….trying to understand how the large market teams have come to accept that unfair advantage …..large market owners must be getting something of value in return.

  52. Seth Lonsway is another interesting name in the third round. He’s a LHP from Ohio State with crazy spin rates on his CB. He K’s a ton of batters … but … BB’s a ton of guys too.

  53. Casey Martin ..#33 rated by MLB. Love him. Why did he drop? Projects as a “diamond” player. SS-CF-2b.

    1. Contact hit tool weakt…..Ks too much…..wants the HR…Scott Kingery-type….speed personified…but go defensice player for sure

    1. I’ve heard that about Max Meyer and all I can say is that he really must have improved his athleticism from high school — he did a PerfectGame showcase spring of junior year and put up these numbers:

      FB VELO: 88
      60 YARD DASH: 7.31
      10 YARD SPLIT: 1.64
      IF VELO: 85
      EXIT VELO: 89

      None of those — particularly the 7.31 sixty — scream “great athlete”

  54. Well, it certainly looks like Barber isn’t going to take the safe, high-floor but low-ceiling guys . . . first two picks could pay off big-time but both have a lot of risk. I actually prefer this approach in general — versus, say, Adam Haseley-type picks . . .

    1. I like this pick if for no other reason than he is the type of player Johnny Almaraz would never pick. He has star potential if he puts it together. I kinda like it. He certainly was highly rated.

  55. I thought Kingery immediately when I saw highlights, he does have a Pedroia type swing at the plate.

  56. So two pitchers at Oregon St with the last name Abel who even look alike but aren’t related? Well to hell and back. For over three years I guessed “brothers.” Wow.

  57. Hugh Fisher may decide to head back to Vandy to throw on weekends behind Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Seth Lonsway fits with Brian Barber is doing with the Phillies this draft: boom or bust.

    1. So Fisher is still avail …but probably staying in college? I was getting excited one of your two guys was avail

    2. 17 YO PR SS Sabin Ceballos is a possibility. He’s committed to Bethune Cookman. He can probably be bought out at a reasonable price.

      17 YO Hawaiian OF Kala’i Rosario is another possibility.

    1. Here’s my write up on Ragsdale ….

      Carson Ragsdale RHP South Florida … is a long and lean (6’8″, 225 lb) thrower right in the backyard (Tampa) of the Phillies Clearwater complex. He creates a steep downplane with his 91-94 mph fastball, and also pounds the zone with a 78-80 mph hammer curveball. Ragsdale missed some of the 2018 season and all of the 2019 season with TJ. He made four starts this year (19 IP, 12 H, 7 BB, 37 K). His final start was his best ever. He came this close (holding my thumb and index finger almost together) to upsetting Florida (#1 team in the nation) by going 4 IP, 1 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 10 K. Ragsdale has also played some 1B for the Bulls (3 career HR’s). Now that he’s fully healthy again, begins filling out, and focuses only on pitching, he has a chance to take off as a pro.

    1. I think Stott was eventually headed for 3B (maybe 2B) with or w/o Barber picking Casey Martin.

  58. One round/one pick to go. Here are some possibilities:

    the two 17 YO prep bats I mentioned above:

    * Sabin Ceballos (6′ 3″ SS from PR with a huge arm has a Bethune Cookman commitment)
    * Kala’i Rosario Hawaiian OF (had the fastest bat speed at the Area Codes Game last summer [Brian Barber mentioned looking for bat speed in Jim Salisbury’s story] and beat Blaze Jordan (among others) to win HR Derby there.

    * Seth Lonsway (LHP from Ohio St with crazy spin rates on a plus CB – this season 18 IP, 11 H, 18 BB, 42 K)

    * Andrew Abbot (U of Va LHP spent most of his time as a multi inning reliever, but has the arsenal to maybe start at the next level – 13.1 IP, 9 H, 8 BB, 28 K this season. Brian Barber was part of the NYY’s FO that picked him out of HS)

    * Joey Boyle (6′ 7″, 240 lb Notre Dame RHP throws 100 – 101 MPH w/high K and BB rates)

    and four Phillie redraft possibilities:

    * Shane Drohan
    * Kyle Hurt
    * DJ Carpenter (redraft)
    * Jake Smith (redraft)

  59. I would much rather pick a guy in the 3rd with upside potential and a chance to be a major leaguer than a solid minor leaguer with little chance to make it. I like the pick of Martin very much. As for the 6’8” pitcher coming off TJ, he seems like another good upside gamble in the 4th plus Hankie liked him earlier.

    1. I follow this guy Joe Doyle. He covers the Mariners and is very clued in on the draft. He’s impressed with Brian Barber’s first draft as Phillies smateur Scouting director.

  60. Baron Radcliff is another tooled up player. Ga Tech OFer has some bat to ball issues , but he has some extreme exit velos (like maybe the highest exit velos in the draft).

    1. Here is some TrackMan data on Radcliff:

      * He had the top single exit velocity measured in the past two seasons (2019 or 2020): 116.3 MPH !!!!!!

      * He also hit the longest HR in college baseball during that same time: a 471′ shot !!!

      BTW … Casey Martin launched the third longest HR at 442′ (and remember he’s got 70-80 grade speed)

      Casey Martin also has a hard hit rate (meaning balls hit in play at least 95 MPH) of 52%; over half of the balls he puts in play are hit at more than 95 MPH (and he did that in the SEC, the best pitching in America). His problem was not putting the ball in play enough.

  61. Who wants to see some dingers? The two top single exit velocities measured in 2019 or 2020 come from two potential fourth- or fifth-round picks who are pretty one-dimensional, but draft models love them due to these numbers: Georgia Tech RF Baron Radcliff (116.3 mph) and Florida State RF Elijah Cabell (114.0 mph), both in 2019.

    One more single-event leaderboard is for distance, and a lot of the same names pop up, with Radcliff’s 471-foot shot ranking as the 2019-20 leader. Some new names that pop up: Arkansas RF Heston Kjerstad (446 feet) and SS Casey Martin (442 feet, which is a somewhat shocking number considering Martin is an 80-grade runner who can play a solid shortstop).

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29284103/from-spin-rate-stars-exit-velo-kings-trackman-reveals-mlb-draft-metric-standouts

  62. WAAAAAY TOO EARLY PHILLIES 2021 MLB DRAFT

    ROUND 1: Malakhi Knight OF Marysville Getchell HS in Washington … is a two sport star (also a top prep basketball player) from the Pacific Northwest (Hey, two years in a row!). Knight just looks the part. The 6′ 3″, 187 lb RH hitting prepster projects to plus power and plus speed. The sky is the limit once he focuses on just baseball.

    ROUND 2: Zack Gelof 3B Virginia … is an ascending local product. He’s a native of Rehoboth Beach, DE, and may be a bigger Eagles fan than Mike Trout. Gelof was a productive player as a freshman in 2019 when he hit .313/.377/.396, but he’s really taken off since then. The 6’3″, 200 lb 3Bman slashed .349/.426/.490 in the Northwoods Summer League 11 months ago. His sophomore campaign at Virginia took off like a rocket this spring (.349/.469/.746, 5 HR’s in 18 games) before it was halted because of COVID-19.

    1. ROUND 3: Ryan Cusick RHP Wake Forest … is an improving former northeast prep player with a high ceiling. Cusick is a Massachusetts native who played HS ball in Connecticut. He’s an imposing presence on the mound. He stands 6’6″, 230 lbs and throws a mid 90’s (T 99) FB. He adds a low 80’s SL (probably shoul be able to add a few ticks to that) and has a decent CH (doesn’t use it enough). That three pitch mix allowed Cusick to put up an eye popping 17.3 K/9 IP in 2020. The Deamon Deacon RHP will need to work on his control (7.3 BB/9 IP this season) between now and next June.

      ROUND 4: Josh Hood 2B/SS/3B UPenn … may be an under-the-radar prospect by some for 2021, but he won’t go unnoticed by MLB scouts. Hood was a Freshman All-American in 2019 when he slashed .331/.411/.580. He also slugged 8 HR’s, and had totaled more BB/HBP (25) tha K’s (21). The Vineland native (you know I’m a big fan!) followed up his freshman campain with a spectacular summer in the Coastal Plains League. He slashed .333/.405/.654 and launched 11 HR’s while there. The 6’1″, 185 lb infielder was off to a slower start (.263/.256/.342 in just 38 AB’s) in 2020 before the pandemic shut things down.

  63. ROUND 5: Christian Lothes LHP Charlotte Univ … is a bulky southpaw who will be sophomore eligible in 2021. The 6’2″, 220 lb former Ohio prep star carries a mid 90’s FB, a power SL, and CH. Lothes made only one appearance for Charlotte in 2020 (his freshman campain) before falling to an (undisclosed) injury. He didn’t throw again in the abreviated season. In his lone game, he totaled 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K.

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