42 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of June 8th”

1. Aside from who’s in the right and wrong here, I have a hard time seeing how a 50 game season is legitimate. For me, 81 games and an expanded playoffs is the minimum for the season to be considered legitimate.

2. Thanks as always Jim.
   Did any of the released minor league players surprise you disappoint you with their release?

   1. Yes. Surprise? TJ Rivera, for one. He seems like the type of player you would want on your tax squad for depth.

      I’m always disappointed when the draft picks I’ve watched move through the system are released. Even when I understand the reason why.

      Some of these guys were going to be free agents at the end of the season ant way, either because their minor league rime has been served or because they were on a one year free agent contract.

      Among the younger guys, we have too many. We carry a lot of kids on futures contracts who have to be placed on rosters forcing the Phillies to release or promote.

      The Phillies can only have so many players in the organization 25 on the ML roster and 35 total active and reserve on each of their 9 affiliates. That’s 340 players. They are still over 350 with the draft on the horizon. They don’t have the 60-day IL to stash players.

      The Phillies recent history has been to hold on to players as long as possible. They haven’t release a lot of after ST. They hid them in extended just in case. Their releases have been just before the draft.

      My comments and articles have been anti-owner regarding the negotiations to restart the season. But, these releases (especially in the Phillies case) are business moves. They are making room for the next wave of players. I’m inclined to give them a pass.

3. The players and the owners have made it plain as day that money comes first and baseball comes somewhere else further down the line after their craven greed. I am sick of it. NBA, NFL, NHL have showed their commitment to their sports, to their fans, and to competition.

   1. The NBA and NHL have already played the majority of the regular season. They don’t have too many games left to complete so I assume it’s easier to finish their season (and easier to talk finances).

      As for the NFL, we’ll see what happens. It’s only June, there’s no guarantee that the season will start on time. But even then, we’re only talking about a 16 game regular season.

      1. And also , to be determined, with or without full capacity in the stadiums.
         A 50% or even less, attendance limit will be a hit on their revenue stream.

4. I used to be impartial about who was right/wrong in this standoff but as time passes i firmly stand with the players… It’s plainly obvious the owners will only spend X amount of dollars this season and it can be spent 1). through full prorated salaries at 50 games {their preference} or 2). a discount to the prorated amount over 81 games but the total amount paid will not surpass the 50 game total.. As a bargaining strategy the owners are dragging their feet and allowing days to come off the calendar so for any baseball to be played in 2020 their preferred option of 50 games & prorated salary is the ONLY option.. The owners desperately want the post-season billion dollars that comes with the playoff T.V. money. If I were the players I would hold out for at least a compromise deal or tell the owners no compromise no post-season and you can kiss that billion dollars good-bye..

5. To me, the argument comes down to the fact that the players do not have the opportunity to recoup their lost money, while the owners most definitely do, and I am certain, will make every penny back.

   1. matt13…fwiw….from what I understand….gate revenue will be a big factor for the teams.
      The Cubs, win or lose, are the luvable Cubbies and get their 3M per year….with 70% of their revenue from gate sales.
      The Phillies, according to Middleton, and I assume it has been only the last 5/6 years…get 40% revenue from gate sales. I am sure 10 years ago the percentage was a lot higher since they were well over 3M attendance for 7 consecutive seasons starting in 2007

6. Romus, I believe, that when we are contenders again, and the distancing has us back to normal, then the 3M attendance numbers will be there each year. That is on John Middleton, but I know the fanbase will do its part.

7. MLB has made another offer to the players…76 games at 75% of prorated salaries…plus a chunk of playoff TV money. Which pretty much amounts to the same if they player 48 games with full prorated salary. The regular season would end Sept 27, with post season ending by the end of October. Players are expected to reject the offer by Wed, but indicates that some interplay is better than none. FWIW, Bob Nightengale says that there definitely will be some form of baseball in 2020.

   1. Ah, Nightengale, another shill for the owners.

      1. This is what spurred my previous comment. In what way has Heyman been anything but the owners’ shill? He reports everything they leak to him out of the owners’ camp while reporting only the players’ press releases.

         While they don’t love either option, many if not most players seem to prefer 50 game season mandated at prorated pay over 82 games at 40% pay cut on sliding scale. Feels like owners are willing to compromise further but the union is stuck on prorated pay for half season or more.

         — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) June 8, 2020

         1. It ticked me off enough to tweet this last night.

            So, when a national baseball writer who has been a shill for the owners the past couple months tells us that many if not most players prefer the owners offer, should we believe him? Nah.

            — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) June 8, 2020

            1. Interesting…the players may be grouped into a few different factions.
               Those at the top with LTCs in hand and triple figure millions guaranteed, usually late 20s or early 30s…may be agreeable to the owners plan..they really do not lose money with those LTCs….but they are concerned for the yuong players coming up.
               Then there are the young ones with less than three years service time…not sure what has to be done but do not want to rock the boat. They will follow whatever is decided.
               Then there are the group in their late arb years…..JTR, Mookie.et al…now they are keen about what is happening…but they also have a fairlt stable financial base at this point.
               So hard to get a general feeling from what the players actually want themselves.

               1. “Interesting…the players may be grouped into a few different factions.” Only if you believe Heyman. I’ve seen a lot of tweets that indicate solidarity among the players.

                  I agree with you that some division should seem likely. But, the players have a long history of supporting the association when these disagreements arise. Any break in the ranks now will hurt them at the bargaining table in the future.

      2. …well, now Jim Salisbury says there will be baseball, even if it’s Manfred rolling out his 48 game option in his pocket. But there’s a possibility that more games will be played.

         Also with the WHO suddenly announcing that it’s very rare for asymptomatic people to spread the virus, might that impact the decision for sports in America to open up to crowds in the seats?

         1. It certainly helps, but I think states/teams/people will err on the side of caution. There will be crowds (in Texas), but nowhere near full.

            1. Maybe more so in the south? Word out of Ole Miss is they expect to fill the seats. And Georgia has been open for 6 weeks and the case count has dropped in that time.

8. I don’t agree with either side. Obviously the owners would lose money with no fans and no game day revenue. However they don’t want to open their books and they shouldn’t have to. They need to meet in the middle though. The players won’t budge off of 100% though and that’s just foolish also. I think 81 games at around 80% of pay is the middle. If there is to be baseball, they need to find middle ground.

9. Also, the new offer from MLB will hurt the Phillies in terms of our Free agent all star catcher. With Klentak dragging his feet, no extension was agreed to before the stoppage and it now seems unlikely that he won’t test the free agent waters. With no lost draft pick by the signing team and no compensation to us if we lose him, our need to keep him just got higher, as did the cost.
   As for Seranthony, who didn’t know he would need TJ last year? Bad management.

   1. I’m not sure why the cost of signing Realmuto got higher. If the Phillies didn’t want to give JT say 5 years, $125M in the offseason, why would they be inclined to do so now? You know that the owners are going to claim lost revenue and collude to keep spending down. No other team is going to give JT that type of money. I think his future contract just lost $20M easy.

   2. Seranthony…… had a PRP injection from Dr. James Andrews on June12, 2019, that was the recommendation by the doctor, not TJ. He was scheduled to start throwing in August 2019…..not sure what happened but never came back in 2019. But he did throw in Sept from what I remember reading and things seemed fine then.

   3. “Teams that lose free agents receive draft pick for players who sign multiyear deals at $35M+ or one-year deals at $17.8M+.”

      1. I didn’t see that clause, that would certainly make me feel a little better.

10. I keep hoping that we find a way to re-sign JTR. Maybe I am just delusional, and now the “no loss of draft pick” proposal will have more teams in on him. It was incredibly dumb to not sign him before the Arbitration. And, the only reason they waited was because they wanted the lower number for this year, so keeping under the self-imposed salary cap. Losing him will rank with Ryne Sandberg as a throw in, at the top of mismanagement by our Phils.

11. Would anyone be happy, at all, with the Comp pick, if we lose JTR? To me, it is a fireable offense if we lose him. However, I don’t know if the order to wait came from above Klentak. If so, then that damages the faith I have had in Middleton.

    1. The tabled offer from MLB would have NO draft pick compensation for free agents lost to another club…a significant boost to the player’s market. So yes, not re-signing JTR would definitely raise the already high temperature of Klentak’s hot seat since Middleton won’t likely fire himself. The fan base would demand an answer to such a head scratching decision.

       1. Perhaps due t loss revenue for this year…many clubs will not be able to be in the JTR market, then there are the teams that already have their preferred catcher in place..
          It may only come down to a few that will be vying for his services…..Mets I heard could be one, and possibly the Dodgers.

          1. The old expression is that one in hand is worth two in the bush.

             The Phillies had JT. They should have signed him to a renewal early, to heck with salary cap. That was an issue that could have been dealt with later in some fashion. But keeping the best catcher in baseball, and a good leader and positive influence, should have been a clear priority. And, obviously, it made no sense to trade perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball for a rental on a rebuilding team.

             Now, I don’t post all of my opinions daily on this site, but this has been my opinion all along, so it isn’t just now that we have the pandemic crisis, that I hold it. Again, one in hand is worth two in the bush.

          2. Any team that needs catcher will be in on JTR, They will find the money, I hope this is the nail in Klentak coffin if he leaves,

12. If the commissioner imposes a 50 game season, it will really not go over well with the players, to put it mildly. I can easily see a lot of star players sit out the season.

13. You can’t make a deal unless BOTH PARTIES want to make a deal.

    Realmuto expressed his intention to test arbitration for the association and for catchers. He also said he was interested in Joe Mauer money.

    So, I don’t see how the team is at fault unless you want to blame them for not over-paying to get a deal done.

    I’ve seen a lot of 5/$125M suggestions for Realmuto. But, just because we think that’s a good deal doesn’t mean it is. For instance, five years now only takes him through his age 34 season.

    Mauer got 8/$184M in 2011, his age 28-35 seasons.

    Realmuto’s extension on top of his arbitration contract would have started in his age 30 season. Same as a free agent contract this year. It might take a 6 year deal through his age 35 season to get a deal done.

    Mauer’s contract was $23M/yr in 2011 dollars. Even with just a 2% increase each year since, a comparable contract before arbitration would have been almost $27.5M/yr. During free agency, a contract could be at just above $28M/yr. So, $25M/yr might just get the conversation started.

    Of, course COVID has changed a lot of things since then.

    1. Jim,

       Sorry to take so long to reply. Lots going on.

       I understand that since the end of last season that JTR had his various standards. But it seems to me that earlier he expressed interest in remaining and Phillie, and i wonder if Klentak made a mistake by letting things go to the final year.

       1. He was never going to sign a team friendly contract. His agent and the union would have seen to that. If all people want to do is blame the Phillies and Klentak, then fine. I’ll continue to remind them of the facts.

14. Didn’t think they have the cojanes to pick Abel but the Phillies/Klentak pleasantly surprised me!! LOVE this pick!

15. So the Phillies have appreciated in value by about $100M per year on average over the last 18 years. The KC Royals appreciated about $48M per year on average in that same timeframe. Do the owners have any idea how ridiculous their argument is about not making enough money? How exactly does a money losing business appreciate at that rate? I think it’s truly awful what they are doing to this season and maybe worse is the fact that they are trying to pin the blame on the innocent party in this. Awful

    1. Amen.

16. Sounds like we’ll get the word on how many games and all the particulars. As a baseball fan, I’ll always love this game. But MLB and the union should be utterly ashamed of themselves. I’m embarrassed for them. They certainly don’t seem to be.

    1. 8mark

       A 50-game season sucks, if that’s what Manfred decides.

       For the good of the game, which I believe is his mission, lay out an 80-game schedule and let’s not have this be a labor issue any more than it is.

       Of course, we’ll get a 50-game schedule and lots of hard feelings as we head into negotiations for a new players association agreement.

       1. Frank.
          I guess the 50-game season means the Phillies have a better opportunity for making the play-offs. Not that they will finish first in the division, but understand they will now have 12 teams in the play-offs.
          Assume it will be top two teams from each division.
          .

          1. Are you sure that there will be 12 teams in the playoffs? The commissioner can mandate length of the season, but I believe he has to negotiate any change to the playoffs.

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