2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, May 13, 2019

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for discussion of the amateur draft and J2 signing period that are 3-7 weeks down the road.   I’m providing this space for those who are ready to enter discussion about this year’s crop of prospects.  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and J2 signing season.  This is NOT a space for you to continue complaining about past picks and the past/current draft philosophy.  That horse has been beaten to death in  weekly open discussions.  If you must, keep it there.

 

38 thoughts on “2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, May 13, 2019

  1. Three weeks out from the draft. It has become pretty clear there are going to be four college bats (and three prep hitters)who will be long gone before the Phillies pick at 1-14. So … I’m going to ignore Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, JJ Bleday, and Hunter Bishop. I will, however, still follow all college pitchers because you never know what a last minute injury could do to their draft day outcomes.

    * Alek Manoah (#11 Fangraphs, #9 KLaw, #10 MLB.com) is a beast, and he proved it again on Friday night. The WVU “ace” used his 97 MPH FB and plus SL to manhandle Kansas State 8 IP (102 P), 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 13 K. This season, Manoah is 90.2 IP, 59 H, 22 BB, 121 K, 1.89 ERA, .186 OBA.

    * Nick Lodolo (#6 Fangraphs, #10 KLaw, #8 MLB.com) was good against Kansas. The TCU southpaw was 6 IP (108 P), 2 R, 2 H, 3 BB, 11 K. In 2019, Lodolo has totaled 83 IP, 62 H, 19 BB, 100 K.

    * Jackson Rutledge (#21 Fangraphs, #15 KLaw, #13 MLB.com) is the top JUCO pitcher available. The massive (6’8″, 240 lb) flame throwing RHP (upper 90’s T 102) has totaled 82.2 IP, 42 H, 30 BB, 134 K, 0.88 ERA.

    1. * Ethan Small (#78 Fangraphs, #50 KLaw, #56 MLB.com) is no longer a third round guy. He is racing up draft boards, and may be in play for round one. The Mississppi Stata LHP was excellent again in a win vs Ole Miss. Small went 5 IP (82 P), 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 10 K before leaving the game because of a 40 minute fog delay. Small has absolutely strangled hitters in the best conference (SEC) in college baseball this year 78 IP, 42 H, 19 BB, 132 K, 1.73 ERA, .157 OBA.

      * Zack Thompson (#12 Fangraphs, #22 KLaw, #15 MLB.com) is the other pitcher who just keeps on cruising through the rugged SEC. The Wildcat “lefty” handled South Carolina yesterday by going 6 IP (88 P), 2 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K. In 2019, Thompson is 84 IP, 53 H, 31 BB, 121 K, 2.14 ERA, .179 OBA.

      * George Kirby (#15 George Kirby, #24 KLaw, #20 MLB.com) looked good in a loss to UNC-Wilmington. He totaled 5 IP (79 P), 1 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K. Two of Kirby’s 9 K’s came against Greg Jones (a likely first or second round pick next month). Kirby has raised his season stats to 82.2 IP, 62 H, 6 BB, 105 K, 2.07 ERA, .203 OBA.

      1. On the offensive side …

        * Josh Jung (#13 Fangraphs, #18 KLaw, #16 MLB.com) and his Texas Tech squad had the weekend off. For the season, Red Raider 3Bman is .355/.491/.634, 9 HR, 48 BB&HBP, 31 K.

        * Bryson Stott (#10 Fangraphs, #13 KLaw, #9 MLB.com) went 6 for 13 (2 doubles), 3 BB, 3 K, 7 R, 1 SB, 1 CS, and 1 PO.vs New Mexico. In 2019, the UNLV SS is .369/.498/.636, 10 HR, 15 SB.

        * Shea Langaliers (#17 Fangraphs, #12 KLaw, #11 MLB.com) and the Baylor Bears were off for the Mothers Day weekend. Langeliers (one of the top defensive backtops in college ball) has rebounded from a slow start (caused by a hand injury) and is now slashing .318/.388/.493, 6 HR’s.

        * Aaron Schunk (#47 Fangraphs, #93 MLB.com, not on KLaw’s top 50) came back from an achilles strain that sidelined him for two weeks in a series vs Auburn. Schunk returned with a bang! He was 5 for 14 (2 HR), 4 R, 4 RBI. For the season, the Bulldogs’ 3Bman (and a guy who would be in play for me at 1-14) is .339/.367/.556, 9 HR.
        You can witness Schunk belting one of his HR’s (third batter in the top of 1st) here: http://www.secsports.com/video/event/_/?airingId=388cc297-7402-4fd9-81b2-b99b27316c3b&replayId=0b59814d-bd19-442b-96eb-339fad7b8e16

        * Michael Busch (#18 Fangraphs, #16 KLaw, #28 MLB.com) is sliding down draft boards. He had only one single in 12 AB’s this weekend against Pitt. He’s now slashing .285/.447/.543, 12 HR’s. While Bush struggled with the bat vs Pitt, the UNC 1Bman made ESPN’s top plays for this outstanding web gem in LF.

  2. Hinikie…..the one guy, rated high from last year, who has dropped off the charts and that slippery slope downward is Carter Stewart….the one the Braves did not sign. Wonder whats up?
    KLaw from March scouting:
    “I saw Stewart on Wednesday(March 13) at Eastern Florida State College, right near his home in Melbourne, after hearing very mixed reports on him from his first half-dozen outings. He’d come into the spring in worse condition, although he seems to have worked himself into shape and I thought his body looked fine. He’s had outings where scouts said he looked like he was a top-15 pick, and some where he didn’t look like a first-rounder. “

    1. At the start of the season, Law said Stewart appeared to have gained weight and his stuff had backed up. Since then, I’ve read some better (though, not glowing) reports on the RHP now in JUCO.
      Just a hunch … but … Stewart is exactly the kind of sliding high ceiling arm/prospect the Nationals use first round draft picks on. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them take the former Braves’ pick at 1-17.

      1. Or the As….they did it with Jesus Luzardo.
        If the Phillies had a Round A CBA I would do it if he were still available.

        1. Romus … you just helped me make my point. It was the Nats who drafted Jesus Luzardo. Washington then dealt him to the A’s in the trade that netted them Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madsen.
          The Nationals have also picked Lucas Giolito (the top prep pitcher recovering from TJ), and Seth Romero (top college arm who was thrown off the U of Houston club for continually violating team rules).

  3. Here’s my first crack at a 2019 Phillies mock draft. The team has a total bonus pool of $6,475,800. They can spend another $323,790 (5%) w/o being punished.

    ROUND 1 (4.036 million slot) If Alek Manoah makes it to this spot, I’d jump all over him. That’s most likely not going to happen. In that event, I’d go under slot on Aaron Schunk or George Kirby. For this excercise, I’ll go with Kirby. The Elon University RHP may play in a smaller conference, but you can’t argue with his track record: 77.2 IP, 60 H, 6 BB, 96 K. The fact that he’s walking just .7 batters per 9 IP will surely catch the eye of the Phillies (“control the strike zone!”). That .7 BB/9 IP is historic. It even smashes the 1.2 BB/9 IP allowed by last year’s 1-1 Casey Mize. When you add Kirby’s 2018 Cape Cod numbers (13 IP, 13 H, 1 BB, 24 K) to the equation, the 6’4″, 195 lb RHP with four avg or above pitches (including a mid 90’s FB) is a legit 1-14 candidate.

    ROUND 3 (647 thousand slot)
    MLB.com has Aaron Schunk ranked #93. The Phillies pick is #91. I just don’t believe he’ll make it here. Two other college 3Bmen could be available at this spot: Baylor’s Davis Wendzel or Arizona’s Nick Quintana. Most lists have Quintana rated higher so I’ll choose Wendzel because he’s more likely to still be on the board. Wendzel looks a lot like (long hair and long beard) and palys a bit like (gritty) Justin Turner. The one knock on Wendzel is lack of bat speed, but there is no question he is putting together a whale of a junior season: .385/.500/.647, 8 HR.

    1. ROUND 4 (478 thousand slot)
      Jared Horn (RHP Cal) was one of the top prep arms that went to college in 2016. Horn has dealt with injuries and personal tragedy (he was the driver of a car that was hit by a drunk driver and killed Horn’s father, little brother, uncle and cousin) over the last three years. Horn’s velo is down from his HS days (mid 90’s then, low 90’s now), but he still has (IMO) one of the best CB’s in America. After missing the beginning of 2019 with an emergency appendectomy, the RHP is up to 60.1 IP, 43 H, 16 BB, 47 K, 1.79 ERA, .207 OBA.
      This weekend he handled Stanford (a top 10 team in the country).

      ROUND 5 (357 thousand slot)
      Nick Snyder (LHP WVU) is a local kid (Cherokee HS in Marlton) who is living in the shadow of Alek Manoah at WVU this season. Snyder is a giant (6’7″, 220 lb) presence on the mound, and is putting up eye-popping numbers this season: 48 IP, 27 H, 23 BB, 75 K. He throws a lower 90’s FB that looks like more because of his extension.

      1. ROUND 6 (272 thousand slot)
        Cooper Johnson (C Ole Miss) is one of my favorite players in the draft. He’s having his best season at the plate .280/.373/.460, but his calling card is his defense and his ability to handle a pitching staff.

        1. ROUND 7 (213 thousand slot)
          Kamren James (Mississippi HS SS) has a college commitment to Mississippi State, but could be on Johnny Almaraz’s watch list. In his four previous drafts as Phillies Amateur Scouting Director, Johnny A has picked at least one HS or JUCO SS in the first seven rounds.

          ROUND 8 (172 thousand slot)
          Mason Feole (LHP UConn) has been a mainstay in the Huskies rotation for three years. The 6’2″, 18 lb southpaw works at an uber uptempo pace, and throws a low 90’s FB, and a hammer CB that sets him apart. After missing the early part of 2019 with a shoulder strain, Feole has totaled 61 IP, 54 H, 37 BB, 66 K.

          1. ROUND 9 (154 thousand slot)
            MD Johnson (RHP Dallas Baptist) would be a senior sign. He’s still a young (21 YO until July), projectable (6’6″, 185 lb) senior arm, and he seems to be figuring it all out in his fourth year at DBU: 81 IP, 56 H, 19 BB, 91 K.
            Side note … Johnny Almaraz has a history of drawing from the Dallas Baptist well (four picks from the school in four years).

            ROUND 10 (145 thousand slot)
            Luis Trevino (C/1B/DH Abilene Christian) is all bat, no glove. He spent two years at a JUCO before heading to Abalien Christian (the alma mater of Wilbert Montgomery). In two of those four seasons, Trevino has hit over .400.

            2015 frosh season Navvaro JUCO .401/.452/.562
            2016 soph season Navarro JUCO .378/.456/.595
            2017 jr season .366/.422/.509
            2019 RS senior season .409/.497/.630
            Trevino has also had more BB’s than K’s during his career.

            1. ROUND 11 (125 thousand slot)

              * Luke Little (San Jacinto JUCO LHP) is a teammate of Jackson Rutledge at San Jacinto Junior College. Like Rutledge, Little is a big (6’8″, 225 lb), hard throwing (92-95 T98) pitcher. Little is a southpaw, and is still only 18 YO.

            2. ROUND 12 and beyond (125 thousand slot)

              * Gianluca Dalatri (UNC RHP) was probably the second best prep arm from NJ in 2016 (behind only Jason Groome). The 6’6″, 240 lb “righty” throws in the low 90’s, and really controls the K-zone (1.96 BB per 9 IP during his college career). Dalatri would be a higher selection if not for a series of injuries that have limited him to just 13 starts and 59 innings over the past two seasons. Before being shut down with a hip injury that will sideline him for the rest of the season, Dalatri was 32 IP, 29 H, 8 BB, 35 K in 2019.

              * Jordan Brewer (OF Michigan) is killing it in his first season at the Univ of Michigan after two years at a JUCO. For 2019, Brewer is slashing .358/.420/.636, 11 HR, 19 SB. He’s also helped the Wolverines in the field with plays like this.

            3. * Itchy Burts (IF/OF Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi) has a first round name, but will probably go on day three. Burts is a small (5’8″, 165 lb), LH hitter who has put up very impressive numbers the last two seasons: .401/.468/.467 in 2018, and .371/.429/.500 in 2019.

              * Brandon Eisert (LHP Oregon St) has started 7 games this season, but has been used primarily out of the BP for the defending NCAA champions. Eisert has been very effective going multiple innings as a reliever. He’s another guy who hates to hand out free passes (1.89 per 9 IP over the past two seasons). Eisert throws from a tough angle, and hitters have a tough time picking up the ball from his hand. This season, he is 62 IP, 59 H, 13 BB, 74 K, 2.03 ERA, .255 OBA.

            4. * DJ Carpenter (RHP Central AZ JUCO) was drafted by the Phillies in the 15th round last June. The 6’7″, 190 lb former California prepster chose not to sign. This season in JUCO, Carpenter is 19.1 IP, 14 H, 18 BB, 27 K.

              * Jake Smith (Chipola JUCO) is another re-draft. Smith was picked in the 21st round last year by Johnny Almaraz. He didn’t sign. This season at his Florida JUCO, the 6’5″, 175 lb RH thrower is 30.2 IP, 29 H, 14 BB, 35 K.

              * Cody Luther (RHP St. Louis Univ) possesses two things that seems to attract Johnny Almaraz: low BB rate (2.25 per 9 IP in two seasons at St. Louis) and he was born and raised in California (76% of the arms Almaraz has drafted in rounds 1-10 have come from the Golden State). The 6’5″, 210 lb RHP features a low 90’s FB, a good looking cutter and an above average CB. It works well enough that he tossed a no-hitter this season. So far in 2019 Luther has totaled 79.2 IP, 63 H, 20 BB, 79 K, 2.60 ERA, .216 OBA.

              * Gabe Briones (C Calif HS) plays at the same HS as DJ Carpenter and Brandon Ramey (both chosen by the Phillies last June). Briones is a defensive wiz with a college commitment to USC.

            5. * Sean Mooney (RHP St. John’s) is a local kid (Ocean City HS) who is recovering from TJ surgery. Before the injury, Mooney (throws low 90’s FB, CB & CH) was the Red Storm’s Friday night starter. During his three seasons at St. John’s, Mooney has been 244.2 IP, 182 H, 72 BB, 249 K.

              * T.J. Collett (C/1B/DH Univ of Kentucky) has been a mainstay in the middle of the Wildcats lineup the past two seasons. However, the LH hitter’s numbers are down (.267/.359/.534, 10 HR) in 2019 from his 2018 stats (.304/.413/.576, 10 HR).

            6. * Justin Hooper (LHP UCLA) is a lottery ticket. The good: Hooper has great size (6’7″, 230 lb), throws hard (mid 90’s), and pedigree (was a HS All-American). The bad: Hooper hasn’t pitched in two years (had TJ prior to the 2018 season), and was having trouble with the strike zone (6.4 BB per 9 IP in college) before his arm injury. The thing to maybe hold out some hope for is this … Hooper made the Cape Cod League All-Star team in the summer of 2017. That summer, he went 23.1 IP, 22 H, 4 BB, 21 K after making an adjustment to his delivery. Hooper still has two years of eligibility, but is already 22 YO. This is Hooper from his prep days on the summer showcase circuit.

              * Brandon McIlwain (OF Cal) is one of the best athletes in this draft. He’s also got a long story. It goes like this:
              Young Brandon was a two sport athlete/star at Council Rock North HS. McIlwain was so good, he was named the Gatorade HS Football Player Of The Year in Pennsylvania for his work at QB. At the same time, Brandon made Keith Law’s original top 30 prospects list for the 2016 draft. For some inexplicable reason, McIlwain decided to graduate early (December 2015) and enroll at South Carolina in January 2016. By doing that, he became ineligible for the 2016 MLB draft. Things didn’t work out with the Gamecocks. McIlwain got little playing time on the football field or the baseball diamond. After a couple of years, he transferred to Cal. At Cal, he has been moved from QB to athlete/RB on the football team. He has also resurrected his baseball career. This season, McIlwain was slashing .258/.309/.435 as an OF’er before breaking his foot and ending his initial campaign with the Bears.

            7. * Justin Hooper (LHP UCLA) is a lottery ticket. The good: Hooper has great size (6’7″, 230 lb), throws hard (mid 90’s), and pedigree (was a HS All-American). The bad: Hooper hasn’t pitched in two years (had TJ prior to the 2018 season), and was having trouble with the strike zone (6.4 BB per 9 IP in college) before his arm injury. The thing to maybe hold out some hope for is this … Hooper made the Cape Cod League All-Star team in the summer of 2017. That summer, he went 23.1 IP, 22 H, 4 BB, 21 K after making an adjustment to his delivery. Hooper still has two years of eligibility, but is already 22 YO. This is Hooper from his prep days on the summer showcase circuit.

              * Brandon McIlwain (OF Cal) is one of the best athletes in this draft. He’s also got a long story. It goes like this:
              Young Brandon was a two sport athlete/star at Council Rock North HS. McIlwain was so good, he was named the Gatorade HS Football Player Of The Year in Pennsylvania for his work at QB. At the same time, Brandon made Keith Law’s original top 30 prospects list for the 2016 draft. For some inexplicable reason, McIlwain decided to graduate early (December 2015) and enroll at South Carolina in January 2016. By doing that, he became ineligble for the 2016 MLB draft. Things didn’t work out with South Carolina. McIlwain got little playing time on the football field or the baseball diamond. After a couple of years, he transferred to Cal. At Cal, he has been moved from QB to athlete/RB on the football team. He has also resurrected his baseball career. This season, McIlwain was slashing .258/.309/.435 as an OF’er before breaking his foot and ending his initial campaign with the Bears.

            8. Jim … Please just dump the post awaiting moderation. The University of South Carolina nickname was too much for the system to handle. I made an adjustment to the post. Thanks.

    1. One of them are bound to get it right…what is that now?
      …8/9 different Phillies’ selections.

      Hinkie….come early Monday morning, June 3rd…post all the different mocks from every outlet…let’s see who gets it correct

      1. Fangraphs is doing their second mock (maybe today). Their first one was only for the top ten picks because info got murky for them after that. I think mock 2.0 is for the complete first round.

  4. Romus … here you go … a recap of who has been mocked to the Phillies:

    * MLB.com (May 3) … Josh Jung
    * BA (last week) … Brennan Malone
    * Keith Law (May 6) … Zack Thompson (are also considering Gunnar Henderson)
    * Jeff Ellis/CBS … Michael Busch (Jackson Rutledge as sleeper pick)
    * Dave Seifert/Prep Baseball Report (May 7) … Gunnar Henderson
    * Nathan Rode/Prep Baseball Report (May 7) … Jackson Rutledge
    * Shooter Hunt/Prep Baseball Report (May 7) … Matt Allan
    * Baseball Prospect Journal (May 10) … Shea Langeliers
    * Perfect Game.org (May 8) … Zack Thompson

    * Hinkie (last night) … George Kirby

    … and … Blake Tatlor Ward has just posted his mock 2.0 this morning. He’s also got the Phillies taking George Kirby.
    https://whosonfirstball.wordpress.com/blog/

    1. Later in the PBR podcast, Dave Seifert (who, as I mentioned above, used to work for the Phillies) says if Zack Thompson is not available, he’s heard there is a “love affair” between the Phillies and Gunnar Henderson. This is the same info Keith Law has reported. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen) link the Phillies with Henderson as well when they release their mock 2.0.

      About Henderson: I’ve never seen him play. I have seen video of him, and I’ve read a few scouting reports on him. Opinions are all over the place. I’ve seen everything from “average tools across the board” to “he reminds me a little of Corey Segar”.

    2. Perhaps Gunnar is the guy at 14…Yankees and Cardinals are high on him also.
      According to him…and Phillies philosophy…..risk adverse level…second on their scale. just behind college hitter..

      1. Yeah … where there is smoke, there is usually fire. Keith Law is pretty well connected after his days of working for the Blue Jays’ FO. And, Dave Seifert is well informed on all things Phillies because he worked with so many people still in the organization. Law and Seifert are both reporting the Phillies like Zack Thompson and Gunnar Henderson.
        I know Thompson has been really good in the SEC (the best conference in college baseball), but I’ve never been a huge believer in him. IMO, his stuff is a little too inconsistent. He’s probably going to want full slot, as well.
        OTOH … I’m pretty confident Henderson will get a below slot (4 million dollars) bonus if the Phillies draft him.

    3. That is a pretty good one..

      Scouting is such a difficult job. Trying to equate how a high-school kid from Nebraska is going to do against a 95 MPH fastball – when all they see are 80 MPH – has to be extremely difficult. The national showcase events certainly help, but imagine trying to base your evaluations off of 10 at bats against pro-caliber players..

      It would be a great read to see a book on scouting misses. ‘Oh, this kid will never learn to hit a curve’ – or whatever – and the player goes on to be a HOFer..

  5. Hats off and many thanks to Hinkie for the crash course on the draft. Very informative if overwhelming. But from all I read, it seems like the three likeliest picks are Jung, Henderson, and Thompson (who doesn’t excite me, either.) If NYY and STL have heat on Gunnar, that’s good enough for me to beat them to him at 1-14. But Jung sounds like a safe college bat pick. Manoah is the only arm I’m interested in, and he’ll likely be off the board by then.

  6. Hinkie, Thanks so much for all the work you do keeping us up to speed. I think we take a SP, Manoah, if he falls to us, or Thompson. I can’t believe it is less than a month away.

  7. Alabama HS shortstop Gunnar Henderson is who MLB.com has the Phillies taking at 1-14, based on the now common knowledge that top brass have been making trips to see him. They also mention Jung and Kirby as possibilities.

    I only hope that whoever they pick is a fast riser through the system. Henderson is said to have serious helium among draft prospects.

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