184 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of January 21, 2018”

1. Kingery is MLB.com’s top 2B prospect. They call him a Rookie of the Year candidate.

   https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-scott-kingery-leads-top-2b-prospects/c-265098368

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   1. The kid can really play. Cesar however is on all of the top 10 lists st 2B as well. Klentak needs to get value for Cesar.

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   2. That is awesome and well deserved. If you’ve watched sports long enough, you start to get a sense when a player has the “it” factor (Joel Embiid and Wentz are the most obvious recent examples and Utley had it from the moment he stepped onto a MLB diamond). Kingery has the “it” factor in spades. So glad the world is seeing this too. Trust me on this – he’s not overrated.

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      1. Every word, 100% correct. I don’t understand how others can’t see “It”.

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      2. Always nice to have those obvious “It” players. Hoskins has it too. He has an incredible eye. After watching years of Burrell and Howard swing and miss and the low and outside pitch … when he laid off or held up his swing .. I literally teared up. His eye/pitch recognition is near tops in the league, probably the best I’ve seen as a phan since the mid 80s.

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   3. MLB’s The Shredder ranks Cesar as #10 2B right now. I wonder what offer did Klentak received this offseason for Cesar. I read somewhere that there are 2 trade offers for Cesar.

      The Shredder 2B ranking:
      1) Altuve
      2) Cano
      3) Murphy
      4) Dozier
      5) LeMathieu
      6) Pedroia
      7) Schoop
      8) Kinsler
      9) Walker
      10) Hernandez

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2. NBA HoFer Charles Barkley was at the Eagles NFC championship game last night in a suite.
   Sitting just one row below him…Phillies owner John Middleton.

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   1. Most importantly, a few levels below them was Mike Trout. Don’t you think that guy would love to play for the Phillies? If the money is comparable, you would have to think he would eat up the opportunity to do his thing back in his home town.

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      1. And Trout’s wifey loves them NE weather! Philly has easy access to posh neighborhood, top school districts and college universities, hospitals and great food. Trout will head back home after his LAA contract especially with the direction the Phils are heading!

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         1. Philly has posh neighborhoods? Mayfair?

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            1. I will just assume that this is a sarcastic post. But when i say access to, it includes nearby area like south jersey (cherry hill, moorestown) and mainline (take the old R5 to go figure) and areas (newtown square, blue bell, etc.) within 30 min driving the 19145. in the city itself, there are some nice areas like rittenhouse, society hill, old city, cherry hill.

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               1. I doubt that Trout or his wife need to be “sold” on their own stomping grounds.

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            2. Mayfair guy here. This 2nd base situation should be interesting. Gotta get value for Cesar.

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         2. He’s building a mega mansion in his hometown of Millville

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         3. Have any of you ever lived in SoCal? It’s hard to come back if you don’t have to.

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      2. He was loving yesterday’s win !!!

         Carson Wentz celebrating with @MikeTrout 🔥🔥#nationalhugday#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/HbwD4Kd9nq

         — John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) January 22, 2018

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         1. Instead of the Millville Meteor, we can call him the Minneapolis Meteor for the next 2 weeks.

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3. Saw that hair

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   1. Yep… cannot miss recognizing it, if you are a Phillies follower.

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4. Have to give the Birds a shout out. Fly Eagles Fly! That’s what’s it’s like to win in Philly. It’s such a pure feeling. Let’s go Phillies, you’ve got “next”. Middleton knows that feeling. Mike Trout enjoyed the game with his buddy Tyler Scaggs, maybe to show him how much it would be to play here. However, as Kobe said, there’s won more game to win, stay focused. How Kobe is that?
   How can we get the Phillies back to being a playoff team??

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5. BA released their top 100. Braves lead the way with 8, with Acuna ranked no. 1 overall. The Phillies are in the next tier with 5: JP (16), Sixto (25), Kingery (31), Medina (84), Haseley (100). Notable exclusion: Moniak.

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   1. interesting, Crawford goes from 19 pre 2017 to 92 mid 2017 and now back up to 16.

      Maitan off the list. late first round pick Nate Pearson gets on list after 20 pro innings, though they had him as #13 prospect heading into draft. .Blake Rutherford from #36 to off the list.

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      1. Anyone who saw Crawford with the Phillies knows he belongs. That is why he is back in the top 20.

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   2. Overall, those are nice spots for the Phillies’ prospects. I like seeing Medina at 84. Not surprised about Moniak after last year, but let’s hope he matures physically and gets back in there after this season.

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      1. I’m happy for Medina too. Medina doesn’t get much love from other national outlets and Medina has been consistently good since he went states side. Medina can be better than any of the SPs currently in the 40-man other than Aaron Nola.

         I love pitchers with smooth and easy mechanics, good pitching repertoire and has ability to mix his pitches. Medina’s offspeed pitches have been undervalued nationally, both the CB and CU can be really good. I can see Adonis Medina similar to Aaron Nola when he starts pitching in red pin stripes.

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         1. BP Eval on Medina in June 2017:
            “…..: 90-94 with a heavy fastball, a slurvish curve and a firm change that both needed generous projection to get to average, but a strong feel for pitching and good command for his age. With more physical projectability left than you’d think, we snuck him onto the back of the offseason 101 as the 91st-best prospect in baseball.”
            BP Eval in July 2017:
            “….we’ve definitely got enough now to give Adonis Medina a nice bump from where he was coming into the season. He’s developed a potentially-plus new slider and is pitching more consistently towards the top end of his velocity range. But list season—even midseason list season—forces us to make a determination on just how big that bump is….. he’s actualized enough of the growth potential that he’s graduated out …into the next level of good but non-elite pitching.

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   3. And Alfaro – I agree he shouldn’t be on there but thought he would be.

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      1. The article said that Alfaro was no longer eligible.

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         1. I may be wrong on his…but I think BA and MLB.com use different criteria for prospect eligibility.
            MLB.com for position players to be eligible, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats at the MLB level…and Alfaro fell short by 24 ABs.

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   4. Notable in what way? He’s played terrible, shouldn’t even sniff a top 200 list . . .

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      1. Well I mean he was the no.1 overall pick not too long ago. It’s was notable enough that philly dot com ran an article a few hours after I posted this that said pretty much the same thing.

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         1. That’s also bc Philly.com isn’t up on the rest of the prospects around Baseball and I’m sure they didn’t dive deeper into his numbers. It’s not his fault he was picked 1 but he’s performed HORRIBLY for a 1st overall and to be honest HORRIBLY for anyone in the 1st or 2nd round. All I’m saying is that I don’t think ANYONE expected to see him on any top whatever list coming into this season.

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            1. I agree with you in that it’s not surprising but that doesn’t make it any less newsworthy. He had the biggest decline of any of last year’s prospects and was, for right or wrong, still a no. 1 overall pick. So people are going to talk about him. You also have to remember that we in this forum care way more about Phillies prospects than most, so for the casual fan, hearing about Mickey’s apparent fall from grace would be surprising.

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6. BA gives high value on physical projection left (thus favors the younger prospects) and a solid start in 2018 might put Jhaily Ortiz on BA map. there are 3 1B in Top 100 so I don’t believe a potential move to LF/1B will drag Ortiz’s potential down. A good plate discipline and eye-hand coordination with plus raw power should open all types of eyes!

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7. Klaw has Ortiz at 83, Romero at 59!

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   1. Oh man, that’s awesome.

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   2. any other phils on his list?

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      1. I believe Alfaro IS in Law’s top 50, but only 51-100 were released today. (Saw Jorge’s pic at top of page as a hint.) Very, very encouraging to see the five that made BA’s top 100, especially JPC as high as #16.

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         1. No, he’s in the 90s. Klaw even said that the only thing keeping him in top 100 is that he’s a catcher

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8. lengthy but a good read…

   https://www.milb.com/milb/news/2018-prospect-projections-national-league-east-rookies/c-264328704

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9. I think that Kingery should be higher than 31. Hard to believe that there are 30 better prospects around. He is a step away from the Majors, not a Single A player.

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   1. Matt, I believe those evaluating weigh a player’s position heavily. 2b is getting more love than it once did but still rates lower than corners, catchers and elite arms. Keep in mind, however, that he IS the top 2b on the list. Nothing to sneeze at.

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   2. matt13…many factors in the ratings by the many different analysts. You never know what, how or why they do their selecting…we certainly talk about ceiling vs proximity as one of the factors. They may have other criteria.
      When Jose Altuve and Paul Goldschmidt could never break the BA 100….then their science is not always perfect.

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   3. I agree with Matt Winks eval on Kingery, his ceiling is slightly better than Hernandez. Slightly.

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10. I understand 8mark, you make a very good point.

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    1. matt13….what these guys have in common…..never made the BA 100….fairly active current guys like….Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Matt Holliday, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Martin Prado, Ian Desmond, Lorenzo Cain, Josh Willingham , Kevin Pillar, Mark Trumbo, Yadier Molina, Evan Gattis, David Freese, Nelson Cruz, Justin Turner, Matt Duffy, AJ Pollock, J.D. Martinez and Nick Ahmed. And the following made the top 100 but no lower then 75, and most after their third year in the MiLB: Ian Kinsler (98), Andrelton Simmons (92), Matt Kemp (96), Torri Hunter (790, Mookie Betts (75), Dustin Pedroia (77), and Delino DeShields (99).
       …so it is not an, end all -be all.

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11. Wow, Romus, that is some list. It really makes you realize how inaccurate these rankings can be. I thought that Altuve, for instance, was always a very highly ranked prospect. When Kingery becomes a Major League All Star it won’t matter how highly he ever got ranked.

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12. Loving this Eagles run, really loving it. I hope I’m wrong here but I feel like the Phils with Klentak / Kapler are more like the Chip Kelly regime with the Birds than the Howie / Doug regime. When you look at the Eagles on paper, nobody would look at this team and think they would be where they are today. The biggest reasons they are here is the leadership of Doug, the character and heart of these players, and tons of credit to the other coaches as well for finding a way to make all of these different pieces fit so perfectly. I know analytics are critical in today’s day and age, but I think the Eagles demonstrate that you can do both – have an organization that is focused on and in some ways cutting edge with those things, and at the same time have a coach who’s strongest point might be his ability to communicate with and bring his players together.

    I’m hoping I’m wrong on K/K the same way I was on Cholly many years ago and Doug just last year, but we’ll see soon enough. I’m gonna go do some pullups now.

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    1. the Eagles are successful because:

       a) they have talent – a transcendent one in Carson Wentz, top end talents like Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz and a lot of solid complimentary players (Graham, Mills, Jenkins, Robinson, Ajayi, etc);

       b) team chemistry – you can easily see that these birds love to play beside one another. this is the reason why the birds overcome the loss of Wentz, Sproles and Hicks; and

       c) leadership – the birds have leaders in key positions – Wentz in offense, Cox in D-line, Jenkins in secondary and Dougie P in the coaching staff.

       The Phils don’t have a transcendent talent yet – maybe Nola, may Hoskins and maybe someone not it the team yet — the beloved Doobie and Cesar are complimentary players. Second, the Phils complimentary players with talent need to step up – Eickhoff, Pivetta, Vinny, Franco, Altherr to step up and prove that they can be reliable day to day player.

       i guess my point it – it will take more than just the Front Office and Kapler to replicate what the Eagles and possibly the Sixers are doing. The Phils need to have leaders, talent and chemistry.

       A core that developed and played together in REA and LHV have talent and chemistry. Stick to that core and acquire additional top end talent(s) and move on (and don’t me sentimental) from complimentary and non-performing ones.

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13. does anyone have espn insider access to law’s top-50, which came out an hour ago?

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14. Keith Law’s top 50, 1-50 include JPC @ # 10 ; Sixto @ # 23 ; Kingery @ # 33. Nice writeups for all 3 players.

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    1. So 5-6 players for Phils in his 100. impressive

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       1. That can’t be – he hates us!!

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          1. Have to assume that is a (tic) statement concerning KLaw?

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    2. Very encouraging to see both BA and KLaw this high on JPC, especially when he didn’t wow anybody with his numbers last season. They must see the “IT” factor that should make him a star, even if he doesn’t frequent the accumulative stat page (other than BBs, perhaps).

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       1. JPC has a very very high floor. It’s hard to see him as anything less than a perennial 4 WAR player and he could become more.

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15. Happy Day Tomorrow!
    No offense to any other ranking of Phillies prospects (including the one us readers do here) but my favorite every year is the Top 50 Matt Winkelman posts! Last year he revealed them 5 at a time from Jan 9-20, so I’ve been waiting on it this year. Apparently he’ll kick it off tomorrow!

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    1. i also follow MattWinks in PMT and CA and do like his prospect review. I may have some bias since my philosophy on prospect rankings is in line with MattWinks which is based on prospect plus tools, projection (age and physical) and risk factor.

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16. Our old friend Bobby Abreu is a guest Instructor for ST. I hope he is helping with hitting and plate discipline, not fear of the OF walls! Just kidding a little. Happy to see him back.

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    1. Abreu is one of the most underrated baseball players over the past 30 years . . .

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17. If interest in the fantasy aspect of the prospects in the drafting world, check out Rotowire’s latest from today on close to 300 in the minors. Some of the Phillies will surprise you where they are slotted.
    .https://www.faketeams.com/2018/1/23/16923270/every-prospect-drafted-rotowire-dynasty-invitational-fantasy

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    1. I believe the slotted number 92 drafted , ss Luis Garcia, is the Nat’s prospect., not Phillies.. a million plus signed LA prospect from 2016

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    2. I may also have skewed that by being responsible for taking Medina, Brito, Quinn, and Gamboa

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18. Former Phillies big prospect suspended 100 games with third drug violation….26-year old Jon Singleton.
    A really big fall from grace.
    He did his big payday, early on, from the ‘Stros.

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    1. It’s sad. He had and has a lot of ability

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       1. Our top five from 2011:
          1. Domonic Brown, OF
          2. Jon Singleton, OF
          3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
          4. Brody Colvin, RHP
          5. Trevor May, RHP

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          1. Man, what a cautionary tale of a list. You never with prospects

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             1. I meant to say, you never can tell with prospects

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          2. What ever happened to Brody Colvin? Out of all of the “baby aces”, he was my favorite. Had an electric fastball.

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       2. Man, that sucks. I remember scouts hanging Manny Ramirez comps on him that summer back in 2010 when he exploded onto the scene. Hope he figures it out.

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    2. Remember the apoplexy we had around here when he was traded to Houston…

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19. Ty Kelly signed by Mets, Vielma claimed by Giants.

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20. Romus, That 2011 list is a real cautionary tale.Who would have thought that the player from that list with the most successful MLB career would have been Revor May?

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21. No LA names jump out immediately to me.

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22. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reports that Darvish talks have recently gained momentum AND that his options “are not limited to teams identified publicly” (Cubs, Twins, Rangers, Yankees, Brewers and Dodgers. Astros out after acquiring Cole.)

    Could a certain club on the east coast sneak in and make a splash with a high AAV, front loaded, 4-5 year offer?

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23. prospect lists are for the off season when there are no games to use as a guide. Like the night before Christmas when you are just positive you were getting rock em sock em robots, but the next morning you opened up to find a Charlie McCarthy hand puppet.

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    1. Hand puppet? Heck, how about socks and underwear?

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24. This will be a challenging season for Joe Jordan to manage all the pitchers. The LHV and CLR rotations are busting at the seams. Barring injuries, moves will have to be made to allow certain guys to move up mid season as expected. I think more starters may become relievers this year. Guys like Anderson, Thompson, and Taveras could find themselves in the pen by years’ end.

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    1. Matt Klentak could help cull the herd with one or two moves, if he is so inclined.

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25. Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospect List was mentioned earlier in this thread. Here are his write-ups on the six Phillies on that list:

    10. J.P. Crawford

    Crawford’s 2017 season started out miserably, as he wasn’t hitting, running or fielding well, and he entered July with a .203/.321/.276 line in Triple-A. Something lit a fire under him after that, however, and he started to play like his old self again, hitting .285/.385/.544 in the next two months with much improved defense at short, earning a call-up to the majors, where he shifted to third and flashed even better defense despite being new to the position. This is the player the Phillies thought they were getting in the first round in 2013.

    Crawford has long been a disciplined hitter, working deep counts and showing comfort hitting with two strikes. He posted high OBPs his first three years in pro ball before a slight dip to .349 in 2016. His power surge of a career-best 15 homers in Triple-A this year was a small surprise, but his rangy defense and sure hands were as advertised. I’ve seen Crawford run plus, but he doesn’t show it regularly and probably won’t be a big stolen-base threat in the majors.

    Only three MLB shortstops qualified for the batting title in 2017 and posted an OBP above .350, so even if Crawford is just a 10-12 homer guy in the majors, he’s still a well-above-average regular because of how much he projects to get on base. And if the newfound power sticks around, he’ll be a player worth 5-6 wins for a long time.

    23. Sixto Sanchez

    Sanchez is unassuming to look at on the mound, standing about 5-foot-10 or so and 175-180 pounds, but once he starts throwing, he’ll get your attention.

    With what looks like zero effort, Sanchez can hit 100 mph even as a starter; I saw him do it six times in 65 pitches one night in June, with nothing under 95. He throws it for strikes, too — he didn’t issue his 10th walk last year until mid-August, by which point he had thrown 77 innings on the season.

    His secondary stuff isn’t that far along yet, with a changeup that’s solid-average now and a curveball that he can flip in for strikes but that isn’t very tight or hard; he might be a candidate to try a slider at some point just because his arm is so fast. His fastball command isn’t quite where his control is, but he’s still only 19 and won’t turn 20 until July.

    The main task for the Phillies in the short term is keeping Sanchez healthy, and they’ve done so with a very conservative plan for building up his innings. If he develops as expected and somewhere along the way finds an above-average or better breaking pitch, he’ll be a No. 1 starter. At worst, as long as he stays healthy, he looks like a solid No. 2 in the making.

    33. Scott Kingery

    Kingery hit five home runs in a full season in 2016, splitting time between high-A and Double-A, but a small change in where he starts his hands led to a power explosion: 26 bombs between Double-A and Triple-A in 2017, which took him from an isolated power figure of .107 in 2016 to .226.

    He was already a prospect because he’s a 70 runner and a plus defender at second base, and he had bat speed with high contact rates, although he rarely walked because he would attack early in the count. If he’s even a 20-homer guy in the majors, his defense, speed, and ability to hit for average would make him an above-average regular who’ll make some All-Star teams. I can’t project more power than that, but then again, I didn’t even think his 2017 output was possible before it happened.

    59. JoJo Romero

    The Phillies took Romero in the fourth round in 2016 out of Yavapai Junior College in Arizona, only to have him fly past many of their better-known prospects and spend half of his first full year in the minors in High-A Clearwater.

    Romero will sit 94-96 with his four-seamer but can also throw a low-90s sinker, and he held his velocity well deep into the season. He has a cutter and changeup, showing an advanced feel for how and when to use all of his pitches with minimal platoon split this year. The delivery is quick and compact with a slight cutoff in his landing, probably adding to his deception but limiting his glove-side command.

    He’s a bit undersized, but the four-pitch mix, command and ability to miss bats all point to a future as a starter, probably a good No. 3 or a little above average.

    83. Jhailyn Ortiz

    Ortiz signed with the Phillies for just over $4 million in July 2015, but at the time was seen primarily as a bat-first guy without a position. After two summers in short-season leagues, he has emerged as an offensive prospect while also shocking scouts and even Phillies coaches with his athleticism, running speed, and plus arm.

    He is a hitter first with an advanced approach at the plate and has shown some power in games with more likely to come down the road. He tied for third in the NY Penn League in homers and finished sixth in OBP even though he was one of just three 18-year-olds in the league to get 100 PA.

    While Ortiz’s swing is big, he will go the other way and has already shown some power to the opposite field. He’ll show 70 raw in BP, and projects to 30-plus homers in the big leagues.He is a very long way away, having yet to play a game in a full season league but the early returns are very promising.

    98. Jorge Alfaro

    At any other position, Alfaro would probably have fallen off the prospect map by now given his allergy to the base on balls and modest batting averages, but he is a catcher with an 80 arm and 80 power so we’ll have to let him slide another year.

    He has bat speed and will show that power at times in games, taking advantage of the 2017 baseball for five homers in 114 MLB plate appearances last year, one of which was the hardest-hit ball by any Phillies player all season. He does not walk easily; he has drawn 39 unintentional walks in more than 900 plate appearances over the past two calendar years, and he had the second-worst K/BB ratio of any MLB player to get at least 100 PA last year.

    Behind the plate, he has improved his receiving and blocking but struggled badly with framing after his call-up. His arm strength is elite, enough so that he should be effective against the running game, but he could still improve his transfer to reduce his throw times to second. Alfaro has so much unfulfilled potential with the bat, glove and even the arm, and even though he has been around forever (he signed with Texas in 2009), he’ll play this season at 25. He’ll play a long time as a backup but still has star upside if he improves on either side of the ball.

    BTW … a lot of guys from the 2016 draft (in addition to JoJo Romero) made Law’s list. They include: Forrest Whitley (8), Nick Senzel (9), AJ Puk (13), Bo Bichette (17), Corbin Burnes (24), Jay Groome (30), Taylor Trammell (41), Ian Anderson (48), Alec Hansen (49), Jon Duplantier (64), Lucas Erceg (66), Bryse Wilson (68), Nolan Jones (80), Cal Quantrill (81), Chris Rodriguez (82), Brandon Marsh (88), and Joey Wentz (96). Here’s hoping Mickey Mo and Cole Stobbe have incredible 2018 seasons, and Kevin Gowdy gets well soon.

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    1. 80 power for Alfaro, is that a mistake? 60?

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26. Man… KLaw is about as high on JoJo Romero, 59, than any of the analysts from BP. BA , MLB.com or Fangraphs…though Eric Longenhagen has raved about him on his chats..
    He must then have him as one of his top ten LHP starters.

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27. I really hope at least 1 of the 3 of Moniak, Stobbe, or Gowdy become ML players. I love our LA guys and Romero as the #4 pick has promise, but we invested a ton of $$$ and Ls to draft those 3 high school kids.

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    1. Gotta give a Moniak sometime, I’m hoping for a second half push that picks up the hype on him again. I know it happens, butn can’t stomach a #1 draft flop.. with the rest of the draft pooing out as well. Not after getting the top draft position. Will have to wait and see, but Moniak certainly needs some patience.

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    2. The die is already cast. Obviously, they have to be patient and give it time, but either those guys will work out or they won’t – who knows? Fortunately, we have a lot of other prospects. And it’s not the end of the world if they don’t, although it stings when a 1/1 tanks, but, again, the Astros overcame the same issue just fine.

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       1. They even overcame it twice in a row..

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          1. Let us hope the baseball gods like us more. It really is hard to stomach a 1/1 flop at this point in the rebuild. Sure will move on, just a touch more cynical

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28. Jon Morosi says that Darvish should make his decision sometime this week.

    My fearless FA forecast:

    Darvish will sign with the Cubs (but not because they signed his old catcher at Texas).

    Arrieta will sign with the Rangers.

    JD Martinez will eventually sign with the Red Sox.

    Hosmer will head back to KC.

    Cobb will sign with the Phillies.

    Lynn will sign with the Brewers.

    Moustakas? Who knows.

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29. If Cobb signs with the Phillies…which would be a nice get, I’d hope Klentak would move one of the RHPs for value to a team that needs pitching.
    That is, Orioles need pitching….move a Lively, ot Thompson, or actually any one of them for their O’s CBA(34th), that would make the loss of the 2nd round (Santana) and 3rd pick (Cobb)less damaging.

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    1. Romus, MLBTR just posted Ken Rosenthal’s report that one more team is “checking in” on Darvish – yes, the Phillies. He suggests they’d be interested in what we’ve discussed here – a shorter term deal with high AAV. Stay tuned…

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       1. Again, I’d offer him year 1 – $35M, year 2 – $30M, year 3 – $30M, plus a vested/player option 4th year from $25-$30M. If they include a signing bonus of between $5M-$10M to whet his whistle, I’m okay with that as well. That’s a total of up to $135M over 4 years. If by the 4th year he’s just a crafty #3 or #4 in the rotation, that’s fine too. The young guns won’t be making the big bucks just yet.

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          1. 8mark…yes…..the short high AAV may do the trick. He may take the offer.

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30. MLB has JPC at seven:
    Of course if his second half last season at LHV matched his first half, then naturally he would be a few notches higher on the list.
    The Top 10
    1. Gleyber Torres, Yankees
    2. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
    3. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
    4. Brendan Rodgers, Rockies
    5. Royce Lewis, Twins
    6. Willy Adames, Rays
    7. J.P. Crawford, Phillies
    8. Franklin Barreto, A’s
    9. Jorge Mateo, A’s
    10. Nick Gordon, Twins

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    1. ” if his second half last season at LHV matched his first half…mixed that up ..should be the other way around.

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31. Someone explain to me how Alfaro isn’t in BA top 100 . . . His AAA season was average, you can prob argue it was below with his torrid start helping his overall numbers. But then he does what he did at the ML level. Yes it was only around 100ab but look what he did when he got the chance. He preformed at the highest level. Is that not taken into consideration?!? I don’t get it. I had the same stance w Quinn last year, same circumstances expect I heard the injury argument . . Didn’t stop other injured players from getting on the list. I dunno these things can be head scratchers.

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    1. Alfaro had 33 Ks and 3 walks last year. That’s just too big a ratio for an old prospect.

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       1. And hit .314/.360/.514 w a handful of HRs. There’s no reason that he shouldn’t have made the top 100.

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          1. Yes there is a good reason…It was incredibly lucky he hit that well. If you don’t see that, I don’t know what to tell you.

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             1. So a top 100 prospect preforms and it’s lucky?
                Well he’s projected to hit .277/.340/.464, guess who ever is doing the projections didn’t feel it was lucky.

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    2. @Eric D. – the difference in ranking is basically the difference in preference and philosophy. In my case, i give preference to projection (age and physical), upside (tools and ability) and risk (big red flags). Alfaro’s poor defense (particularly the pitch framing) and plate discipline are too big of the risk/red flag that overcomes his canon arm and raw power. it also doesn’t help that Alfaro is older than most prospects, thus, assumed that the projection is less.

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       1. His pitch framing . . . Really . . . ?

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          1. yes, really.

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             1. All i’m saying is that pitch framing isn’t going to move you up or down a prospect list drastically, if any at all. Wasn’t Ruiz seen as a terrible pitch framer?

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32. Congrats to Jim Thome on his selection to the HoF…well deserved for a great person.
    .
    And a former Phillies’ pitcher with a career 81bWAR, 80fWAR, 105WARP, over 200 wins, and one of the highest winning% for playoff pitchers who have started 15 or more game…. again misses out in the voting selection process

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    1. Well likeability counts, and that former Phillies pitcher is as unlikeable as they come.

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33. @romus – looks like Darick Hall will not be in MattWinks Top 50. He echoed what I said to you yesterday about the BB% and that he is not an advanced hitter (i.e. poor pitch recognition and plate discipline).

    Fanti will also not make the Top 50. He didn’t much about Fanti but I assume that Matt cannot find any upside with Fanti’s average stuff across the board.

    I always showed love and support to Drew Anderson and Edgar Garcia – 2 prospects that I don’t expect to get love from this site. My other 2 other dark horses are Connor Seabold (my # 26) and David Parkinson (my #51). I’m high on Morales but don’t consider him a dark horse. Jakob Hernandez is another name, but there’s a lot of us here that likes him too.

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    1. KuKo….yes he mentioned that a few weeks ago.
       Hall will adjust…he did it for four years…last two in HS and first two in college.
       This new swing approach, which has generated extreme power and launch angles was implemented prior to his DBU’s season in 2016 on the advise of his coach. And proved successful….he garnered a few NCAA awards
       As for Fanti……comp his velo with Allard of the Braves. Allard is sitting 89-91 as Eric Longenhagen posted yesterday…because HSers who do not have to get TJ, will see velo decline…pitching more often and regularly with higher PCs than in HS…and having to bear further down on better hitters.
       Fanti will be in the majors and starting in someone’s rotation in probably four years.

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       1. 2018 will be key for both to bust the myth against them. I’m not worried with Fanti since I like his demeanor in the mound and ability to pitch despite of the lack of velocity.

          But Hall does concern me. He is not stiff as Cozens at the plate, but he can look clueless at times. As long as Hall can hit for a decent average with power, he can carve out a career.

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       2. I like to know who doesn’t think ,my guy fanti will pitch in majors. he will be in majors at worst a loogy.

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34. Romus, I think Schilling’s mouth is keeping him out, not his statistics. I can’t stand him, but I think his numbers speak for themselves.

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    1. matt13….agree with you.
       On merit he certainly belongs….37 of the 75 pitchers in the Hall have lower across the board WAR totals than him.
       But he needs to have a better filtering process for his vocal output.

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       1. His intangibles were awful too when he played – despite the statistics, his teammates hated him, he was divisive in the locker room, caused more controversy than necessary, and was always very selfish. So while he may have been a hall of fame pitcher, he was not a hall of fame teammate, nor human being.

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          1. I’m sorry but there are a ton of people in the HOF Who wanted nothing to do with African Americans or any other minority. The not being a good human being is a ridiculous argument.

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             1. EricD……the ‘Ty Cobb/Pee Wee Reese days of prejudice’ are long gone, at least in the MLB world. Many of those HoFers were elected 50 years ago or longer.

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                1. That doesn’t change what i’m saying

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                2. When it comes to HOF induction it’s most certainly NOT a ridiculous argument since MLF HOF voting carries a “character” qualification not found in, for example, NFL HOF voting.

                   So if you’ve got a complaint, bring it to the HOF because as long as you have that character element a lot of guys who did well enough on the field aren’t going to make it.

                   As for whether it’s a good idea to have that qualification, on the whole, I think it probably is because it means guys who clearly cheated don’t get in and I am A-okay with that. For Schilling, it’s a much harder case against him and your argument has greater merit because he didn’t cheat and his antics – as offensive as they are to most – really have nothing to do with baseball. Curt Schilling the baseball player was, in my view, unquestionably a HOFer – and a clear-cut one.

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                3. I meant to type MLB HOF

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35. trout tries to re-assure Angels fans he’s not leaving for Philly:
    http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-mike-trout-super-bowl-angels-20180123-story.html

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    1. Until he does 🙂

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       1. Exactly. He said NOTHING about his desire to stay with the Angels after his contract ends. With each passing year, I think his return to Philadelphia becomes more and more likely. Based on what I know about this guy, if the Phillies are as well set up in 2021 as I think they will be, he will want a roughly competitive market salary but won’t ask for every last dollar and he and the Phillies will work it out and allow him to come here for, say, an 8 or 10 year contract with an opt out after year 3 or 4. I now think the odds he comes here are in excess of 50 percent, which I do not say lightly.

          This guy is a Philadelphian and is thrilled to identify with this city. He appears to be best buds with Carson Wentz. He lives here in the off season. He’s a very down-to-earth person who doesn’t have a big ego or an abiding desire to make every penny he is entitled to (or he never would have signed the 6 year deal with the Angels).

          My gut says that unless he gets hurt or his performance seriously declines this guy is a Phillie in 2021. And that contract will probably be for $40-45 million a year. Will he be worth it? You can never know, but inner circle HOFers (which he obviously is) tend to play well into their late 30s – so probably yes, he will be worth it and he will DEFINITELY be worth it if his play does not decline significantly.

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    2. i read that couple of days and my understanding is that Trout will play thru his contract with the Angels and will not ask for any trade to the Phillies. After the contract ends, then the drum will beat to the tune of the Phillies especially if the projected key pieces play (Nola, Hoskins, Alfaro, JPC with Kingery and Esh in 2018, Kilome, Sixto, Medina and JoJo in 2019 and Ortiz in 2020) as expected.

       Trout and Skaggs will be FA the same year. Trout can bring his buddy Skaggs with him if he is still able to play.

       Back in 2010, I read this story about Trout saying: “Dad, we got Roy Halladay!!” Trout is already with the Angels farm that time and curious that he used the word “we” rather than “the Phillies”. Every fan’s dream is to play for his home team and lead them to the championship and him hitting in the bottom of the 9th with tied score, and behind 2 ks with the closer throwing down and away and the ball was hit for a walk off home run!!!

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    3. “I love playing in Anaheim” and “I’ve got a couple more years left on my contract” and no elaboration sure sounds like a non-denial denial.

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       1. He said essentially the same thing to Gregg Murphy last season when the teams met. Since then, the Angels acquired Ohtani who will be tested his first couple seasons, Cozart and Kinsler are well on the wrong side of thirty, and Upton is Justin name (sorry) at this point of his career. Their pitching is far from formidable, even with Ohtani.

          2021 at CBP – Trout, Machado, Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford, Santana (maybe), Ortiz, Nola, Sanchez and Darvish (maybe).

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       2. Frank,
          Remember the other day when they asked Mike ……….”When asked by someone on the call whether Trout would rather see the Eagles win a Super Bowl or have the Angels — the team he plays for and represents, and that pays him — go to a World Series and lose … he declined to answer. Dun dun dunnnnnnnnnn!
          https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/1/23/16924262/mike-trout-eagles-super-bowl-tom-brady

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          1. Romus, Thanks. I hadn’t seen that. What a hometown kid!

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36. From today’s Keith Law chat (in reference to Law’s recently released Top 100 prospects):

    Joe: Did Blake Rutherford get any consideration?
    Keith Law: No. He and Moniak were both far worse than they should have been, different reasons but same outcome.

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    1. Don’t overlook this Q & A from today’s KLaw chat:

       Carl: As a Tigers fan, with the #1 pick in the draft is there much to get excited about?
       Keith Law: Yes. Good draft, deep too, so good for a team with high picks and lots of bonus $.

       Beginning in April, Matt Klentak (already w/o a 2nd round pick), must look to move some excess pitching (Thompson, Taveras, Lively, Eshelman, even de los Santos) and eating a bad contract(s) (Edinson Volquez) to acquire competitive balance picks.

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       1. Os need pitching….perhaps Lively could fetch their CBA..34th or 35th if I recall.
          Historically, the Os move int’l money allocations….but do they move CBA picks?

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          1. I’d give the O’s Lively and Taveras … or de los Santos straight up for their Comp A pick.

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             1. That would do it i would think.
                Their pitching needs are real and Dan Duquette would probably jump at that….since he is getting some criticism from the fan base.

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          2. they traded the 76th pick to atlanta a couple years ago for a couple minor league pitchers and dumped balance of Matusz’ contract on Atlanta.

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          3. If the O’s move a 34th or 35th pick for Lively, they are idiots. He’s just a borderline 4/5 – he has almost no value imo.

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             1. agree. the Phils need to absorb some bad contract to get the comp pick. sending lively or any of the back end starters is basically a throw in and clearing a roster spot for that player with a bad contract.

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37. Eno Saris on Mickey Mo’s fall in rankings::
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-prospect-who-dropped-the-most-in-the-rankings/

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    1. I still will root really hard for the kid. I know he had a poor season, and showed little that would make us really hopeful. But, he is young enough and still has a nice swing and speed, and hopefully, worked his butt off this off season. He, “C” are the guys I want to see really up their games. And Roman Quinn be healthy!

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       1. matt13…agree.
          I inwardly feel confident he can turn it around.

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          1. Honestly, if he’s healthy, I think we will know by the end of the year this year if he has a shot to turn it around. I don’t think anyone really expected him to hit with power right away, but expectations were that he would have plus to plus plus hit and plate discipline tools. He showed little of that last year. If he doesn’t show good bat to ball skills and improved plate discipline this year, in my view, it’s unlikely he will ever amount to anything because those are mostly God given skills. You can get stronger and learn to drive a ball, but if you can’t hit it or know whether it’s a strike or not – it’s hard to “learn” those skills. Nobody wants to hear this, but usually if a guy can’t competently hit his way out of A ball in few years, he’s toast.

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             1. But one year blips do happen, especially when players are in their first full year and skip a level – both of which apply to MM. So hopefully he turns it around, but if he doesn’t make serious progress at the plate this year, you can probably forget about him as a decent prospect. And, yes, that would make him one of the biggest 1/1 busts of all time.

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38. It must be my medication but I’m feeling Darvish more and more as each hour passes. He’ll get a front loaded five year deal with an opt out after the 3rd. Book it. (Although I predicted he would sign with the Cubs and Cobb would come here.)

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39. Brewers get Yelich. The return has not been reported, or I could not find it. I would think centered around Lewis Brinson. The next big decision for Klentak is not the signing of a FA SP, because even if he is wrong, it is only $, but the packaging of which prospects to move in a trade. We know that in the next year there will be one, and he has to be correct in who he moves and who he gets back. That is when he has to earn his money.

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    1. From ESPN

       “Miami acquired highly regarded outfielder Lewis Brinson, infielder Isan Diaz, outfielder Monte Harrison and right-handed pitcher Jordan Yamamoto. Brinson, Diaz and Harrison were rated among the Brewers’ top 10 prospects.”

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       1. Would Kingery, Hasely, Randolph, and a lower prospect like Mills be a similar comp to what the Brewers gave up. Probably wouldn’t make that trade.

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          1. Brinson was considered the Brewers best prospect in a system that’s considered to be good. I don’t know their prospects but Brinson is #18 in BA’s list and Harrison was #75.

             Based on BA ratings, a comparable deal from the Phillies would be something like Crawford, Medina, Hasely, and another player ranked in the teens..

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             1. Not making this move was one of the best things the Phillies did.

                They are not in a position to be squandering valuable prospects for a player who might only be a relatively small upgrade (if at all) over a guy like Altherr, who is a damned, damned good baseball player and has an array of skills that matches up quite well with a guy like Yelich – at least for the next few years. If you’re going to “pay” with prospects you had better be getting a serious upgrade at a spot or some other type of significant strategic advantage. Great non-move in my view.

                I’m still withholding judgment on how good they are at player evaluations at the front office level (it’s a mixed bag the last few years – they did draft guys like Kingery and Romero – great picks, but then you have MM and the Charlie Morton issue – it’s not a large enough sample size yet – but it’s mixed), but from a pure strategy standpoint, they have handled acquiring and retaining assets quite well thus far. The Santana move, I think, was a stroke of genius. They are now adding two huge bats to the line-up over last year (including a switch hit bat with power and OBP and tons of line-up flexibility) and now have more outfield assets to deal.

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40. Brewers add Lorenzo Cain also. They are a SP away from being a legit contender for the Playoffs. That could be Arrieta’s landing spot.

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    1. Bold moves for sure

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    2. and have excess outfielders to trade for pitching.

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41. Keith Law Top Ten Farm Systems:

    1 Braves
    2 Yankees
    3 Padres
    4 White Sox
    5 PHILLIES (up from 14 last year)
    6 Reds
    7 Rays
    8 Brewers
    9 Dodgers
    10 Twins

    Here’s his write up on the good guys:

    5. Philadelphia Phillies
    2017 rank: 14

    The Phillies’ system had a big year, even with a rough debut from the No. 1 overall pick in 2016 (Mickey Moniak), as several of the Phils’ best pitching prospects had great seasons that prompted promotions, and their second-rounder from 2015, Scott Kingery, went from eight career homers to 34 with a huge power surge across two levels. The team’s international department, run by Sal Agustinelli, continues to churn out prospects, mostly pitchers but also a few position players creeping up the lowest levels. The Phillies have great depth up the middle, with one potential middle-of-the-order bat on the way in Jhailyn Ortiz.

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    1. That sounds about right.

       By the way – #$!&^&#%$%#$ Yankees! Sorry, couldn’t help myself. At least the Nationals aren’t on that list.

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    2. #5 is a highly encouraging ranking, especially when we have no blue chippers in the upper levels (though Jetpax is close to being one for a 2b). Way to go, Sal A!

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       1. If Cozens, Eshelman, Kilome, Medina, Randolph and De Los Santos and just maybe Pullin, all at the higher level of the minors, could all do well and rake…then they will in turn increase their trade value, especially with better than expected seasons and also bolster the farm systems status.
          Right now they are part of the high floor crop of prospects that probably do not generate much interest from other GMs

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42. And, I still think it is very close to between #2 through 5. WSox, for instance, have a good Top 2, but their other 5 in the Top 100 are not, IMO, better than Kingery, Medina and Haeseley. And, I would favorably compare us to the Padres after Tatis and Gore. Just splitting hairs, I know, but I expect, after this year’s improvements throughout our system, that we are #3 next year!

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    1. matt13…getting the third pick in June will also improve the system. That player will probably automatically go into the Top 100s across the national boards and top five in the Phillies system.

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       1. I think that 1-3 pick comes from this group of ten players:
          Bats … Nander De Sedas, Nolan Gorman, or Jeremy Eierman
          Arms … Ethan Hankins, Matt Liberatore, Austin Becker, Brady Singer, Casey Mize, Jackson Kowar, or Ryan Rolison.

          I hope Klentak can land a comp pick (or two). There are a lot of college arms I like that could be drafted in rounds 2 through 4. Guys like Justin Hooper, Colton Eastman, Hogan Harris, Matt Mercer, Jason Bilous, Zach Hess, and Bryce Montes de Oca.

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          1. Hinkie…don’t count on Matt K. landing any CBAs…he has cupboard full of prospects…pitching especially, that would bring back a Round A and certainly a Round B pick or two…..but he has not showed any inclination in going that route so far.

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             1. In all fairness to Klentak, MLB rules don’t allow comp picks to be traded until the season starts. So … I’m willing to see what transpires over the next three to six months. I’ve been saying for a while now that a deal where the Phillies eat some of Miami’s bad money for Miami’s comp B pick should be a slam dunk.

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          2. Hinkie…did find this about the Os and their trading CBA past picks:
             “MLB handed out the competitive balance draft picks….. The Orioles got about as lucky as you can get in this process, being awarded the #33 overall pick in the draft. That’s the second-highest pick in Round A, which takes place immediately after the first round of the draft. In essence, by being awarded the #33 pick, the Orioles got themselves a late first round pick they would not have had otherwise. That’s good! Don’t get too excited about it, though, because there’s a decent chance the team will end up trading it before using it.

             These picks are the only draft picks that can be traded, and in the past, when the Orioles have had them, they have tended to trade them. Before this year, the Orioles traded the pick they were awarded in three straight drafts:

             2014 – #37 overall pick (Round A) traded to Houston in the Bud Norris deal. Houston used the pick on outfielder Derek Fisher.
             2015 – #74 overall pick (Round B) traded to Los Angeles Dodgers in Ryan Webb salary dump. LA used the pick on DC-born pitcher Josh Sborz, who spent 2017 in Double-A.
             2016 – #76 overall pick (Round B) traded to Atlanta in Brian Matusz salary dump. Atlanta selected catcher Brett Cumberland with the pick.

             https://www.camdenchat.com/2017/11/16/16667110/mlb-draft-orioles-competitive-balance-pick

             …..so Matt K. should explore that avenue….he has plenty of pitching assets to dangle.

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             1. Thanks, Romus – great info on the CB picks by Orioles !!!

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43. Just How Bad Is a Farm System, Really?
    ESPN’s Sam Miller writes.
    http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=498587

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44. Carlos Duran and Derek Campbell we’re released according to league transaction

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45. Machado will play SS for Baltimore this season. If he prefers that, and has multiple offers over $300 Million, does he go where he will play SS, thereby hurting the Phils’ chances? That may make Donaldson a more likely Phils’ target?

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    1. matt13…..lets see how Maikel does……he my be a very pleasant and third base may not be a concern going forward.

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       1. may…vs ‘my’

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    2. Pretty sure this is just a move to increase his value even more for next winter’s tour through free agency. If the Phillies offer him 400 million dollars, I’m confident he’ll be fine playing 3B in 2019 and beyond.

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    3. I think it is reasonable to move Crawford to 3rd in the event that Machado insists on playing SS. IMO, Crawford can do it. He is young and still trying to prove himself, so I can’t foresee him putting up the fuss that a well entrenched veteran would.

       Donaldson is a good argument,do you pay more for the age and production of Machado, or take the cheaper but still good player in Donaldson and allocate the potential savings to elsewhere (pitching or save for core players).

       Interesting debate, recent history has shown to spread the dollars. Will see how it shakes out. Gun to head, I’ll take Machado but wouldn’t be to opposed to a 4-5 year deal for donaldson. Would just need to go for it in the first 3 years of the contract.

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46. Interesting

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47. One of the reasons I raised this is, let’s assume Machado does not come here, and we are not in the Harper sweepstakes. Even if Franco does not pan out and we get Donaldson, for argument’s sake, he comes a lot cheaper than Machado. Shouldn’t MacPhail and Klentak be looking to add a SP this off season? Is there anyone better than Darvish or Arrieta coming out next year? Not unless a miracle occurs and the Dodgers don’t re-sign Kershaw. So, why not sign one of them? Whatever they get paid, even $30Million, is not going to hinder any other signings. The Phils are not 4-5 years away from contention. It is, at the latest 1 year away. So why not add SP now?

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    1. Totally agree. Darvish would make a solid anchor in the rotation until Sixto gets acclimated to be a TOR.

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       1. ….And every hour we wait for news on Yu, the better our chances.

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48. MLB.com Top 100 includes 6 Phillies prospects:

    95 Adam Haseley
    88 Mickey Moniak
    86 Adonis Medina
    37 JP Crawford
    35 Scott Kingery
    26 Sixto Sanchez

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    1. Dan O’Dowd loves Scott Kingery and Sixto Sanchez.
       O’Dowd believes Kingery’s power is real. He compared Kingery to Brian Dozier. Also said Kingery is a smart, winning player.
       O’Dowd called Sanchez the most exciting pitcher on MLB’s top 100 list. Said it may not be fair, but he comped Sixto to Pedro Martinez.

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       1. Agreed. Dowd was as enthusiastic about Kingery and Sanchez as we are. One of the other guys suggested that by mid-year Sixto could be the number one pitching prospect in baseball.

          Also, they had some video of Sixto pitching taken from behind home plate. His stuff is as explosive as it gets. All he needs is to command his FB develop one above average breaking pitch, one show me pitch and he will be a 2/3. If he does much more he will ascend into ace territory – assuming, of course, he stays healthy and doesn’t lose velocity. Flat out stud.

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       2. Pedro or someone more recent Johnny Cueto

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49. FRod on a minor league deal ? Why ? actually, the guy has been a senior relief specialist for a very long time. Apart from the veterans signed, he may add something, and if he doesn’t, it cost spit. Meanwhile, Utley to consider signing with the Dodgers again ? Somehow, someway, that still hurts a little. I know he lives on the west coast, is from there etc. etc., but for what he is going to poivide, his counting stats are basically over and this is a chimera of the “the man” ???? why not come home to the Phillies ? I don’t want to get into an argument about roster etc. – make him a damn coach. Our greatest single player of the 21st century still playing in LA ????? I am sad that he doesn’t want to close out in Phillies threads.

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    1. He was a great player – but it let it go, man.

       And if he retires, he will probably want a few years to sort out his life and priorities before he decides whether he wants to get back into baseball.

       And there’s nothing to indicate he would be a great coach. Most great players make terrible coaches and managers (hello Ryne Sandberg).

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    2. FRod, has to produce, since he does have some baggage outside baseball following him around from 2010 and 2012…a domestic abuse allegation for one, that
       has tarnished his image over the last few years..

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       1. This is a minor, tangential signing. If he has something in the tank and behaves, he can make the team. Otherwise, it’s just a try out. This signing is not a big deal.

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          1. Agreed. Scouts said his velo is up from high 80’s last year to 93 this year. Phils hoping he could return to 2016 form.

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50. Sorry about the poivide —- should have been ” provide.”

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51. Hard to believe but there’s something (?) going on next Sunday and after that, only 10 days until P and C report. I still want to believe we’re going to get one of these pitchers, our young offense will perform better than expected, our obp as a team will jump dramatically and increase our run production, and 82 wins is a possibility. “Make CBP fun again!” That’s my new rally cry. It’s possible, especially in January…

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    1. Speaking of the Eagles, they were 7-9 last year, and this year they had the best record in football, and a trip to the Super Bowl. Why then is it so hard for Phillies fans to envision (with the signing of Darvish or Arrietta) the Phillies at least competing for a wild card berth this year. It happens! Just trying to spread a little optimism here.

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       1. 5 new playoff teams each year, on average.

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       2. Same with the Twins, Brewers, Rockies and DBacks from 2016 to 2017….it can happen. Sometimes getting to the top of hill is easier than staying there.

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          1. usually !

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