The Phillies began the post-All Star break exactly as they played before the break, losing twice as many games as they have won. The Phillies went 1-2 in a schedule shortened by the break. They continue to have the have the worst record in baseball. They have a 30-60 record and a .333 PCT.
Pivetta got cooked by the Brewers and an 8-run inning. Nola pitched well in a loss, and Hellickson won the getaway game. The Phillies travel to Miami to conclude their road trip. Then, they return to Philadelphia for a weekend series against Milwaukee.
The Phillies are 24.5 games out of first place in the East Division. They are 15.0 games behind the .500 and rebuilding Braves. They are 11.0 games behind the fourth place Marlins. They remain 21.0 games behind the Rockies in the Wild Card race. (cue, Jim Mora)
Now for the only race we have a chance to win –
- PHI .333 30-60 —–
- SFG .376 35-58 3.5
- CWS .422 38-52 8.0
- CIN .429 39-52 8.5
- SD .440 40-51 9.5
- OAK .457 42-50 11.0
- MIA .456 41-49 11.0
- DET .456 41-49 11.0
- NYM .461 41-48 11.5
- TOR .462 42-49 11.5
- BAL .462 42-49 11.5
The Giants remain equally bad. The White Sox and A’s have completed trades that should help them play less competitively. The Orioles and Blue Jays are beginning to lose traction in the tough AL East. And the Reds have begun their yearly “tank”. So the run to 1:1 should remain interesting for the next couple months.
Remember, on this date in 2015, the 29-62 Phillies (.319) had a huge lead over the next worst team the Brewers (38-52, .422, 9.5 GB) and an even larger lead over the Reds (39-47, .453, 12.5 GB, 15 GB in the loss column). The Phillies barely held on for a 1.0 game lead over the Reds at season’s end.
The Cubs acquired White Sox starter Jose Quintana. The Nstionals have traded for A’s relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolitle. Don’t know if Hellickson was of interest to the Cubs, but I have to wonder if the market for Pat Neshek just got very much smaller.
Key dates remaining:
- July 31st – Non-waiver Trade Deadline
- December 10-14th – Winter Meetings in Orlando
- December 14th – Rule 5 Draft
- 7/14 – Clearwater Threshers activated 2B Derek Campbell from the 7-day disabled list
- 7/14 – Clearwater Threshers placed RF Jose Pujols on the 7-day disabled list
- 7/13 – Phillies sent RHP Vince Velasquez on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
- 7/13 – RHP Yacksel Rios assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading Fightin Phils
- 7/13 – 3B Harold Martinez assigned to Reading Fightin Phils from Lehigh Valley
- 7/13 – Lehigh Valley placed RHP Mark Appel on the 7-day DL. Right shoulder strain
- 7/13 – Lehigh Valley activated 1B Rhys Hoskins from the temporarily inactive list
- 7/13 – Lehigh Valley activated 2B Scott Kingery from the temporarily inactive list
- 7/13 – 3B Damek Tomscha assigned to Reading Fightin Phils from Clearwater.
- 7/13 – 3B Harold Martinez assigned to Reading Fightin Phils from Lehigh Valley
- 7/13 – Reading Fightin Phils activated RHP Miguel Nunez from the 7-day disabled list
- 7/13 – Clearwater sent 2B Derek Campbell on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies.
- 7/13 – GCL Phillies released RHP Jesus De Los Santos.
- 7/13 – RHP Bailey Cummings assigned to GCL Phillies.
- 7/12 – Phillies signed RHP Bailey Cummings
- 7/12 – Phillies sent 2B Cesar Hernandez on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
- 7/12 – RHP Trevor Bettencourt assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood BlueClaws
- 7/12 – RHP Will Hibbs assigned to Lakewood BlueClaws from Clearwater Threshers
- 7/12 – LHP Ethan Lindow assigned to GCL Phillies
- 7/12 – RHP Ben Brown assigned to GCL Phillies
- 7/11 – Lakewood BlueClaws released 1B Brett Barbier
- 7/11 – C Gregori Rivero assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport Crosscutters
- 7/11 – Sent RHP Seranthony Dominguez on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies
- 7/11 – Nerluis Martinez assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from GCL Phillies
- 7/10 – Phillies activated RHP Jerad Eickhoff from the 10-day disabled list
- 7/10 – Lehigh Valley IronPigs activated RHP Zach Eflin from the 7-day disabled list.
- 7/10 – Phillies transferred RHP Casey Fien from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL. Shoulder impingement
- 7/10 – Lehigh Valley IronPigs released RHP Mark Peterson
- 7/10 – Reading Fightin Phils released RHP John Richy
- The organization’s rosters are up to date.
Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.
I’m going to forgo reading the Comments in the Open Discussion and Box Score Recap for a while. If any one wants to contact me with questions or wants to call an error to my attention, please e-mail me. Put something in the subject line that will induce me to open the e-mail, I routinely delete e-mail from correspondents that I don’t recognize, especially the ones with the “spammy” subject lines.
318 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of July 16th”
Player A / Player B:
– Ground Ball % 37% / 39%
– % of fly balls that are in the infield: 45% / 32%
– ISO .125 / .124
– Sped 3.7 / 4.1
– BABIP .295 / .242
If you look at Player A, there is no reason that his BABIP should be higher than Player B, let alone 53 points higher. Same power/speed. very similar ground ball percentage however, far lower fly balls to the infield. Pretty safe to say that is just bad luck, right?
Player A is JP Crawford in AA and Player B is JP Crawford this year in AAA.
Player B / Player C:
– Ground Ball % 39% / 49%
– % of fly balls that are in the infield: 32% / 18%
– ISO .124 / .118
– Sped 4.1 / 6
– BABIP .242 / .328
– Walk rate: 14.6% / 9.5%
– K rate: 16.7% / 14.5%
Player C has far more ground balls, which we know should carry a far lower BABIP. He does have an advantage on Fly balls to outfield, but has slightly less power and slightly more speed. But a lower walk rate and a slightly lower K rate, although both player’s walk and k rate are very good. Taken together, there is really no reason that Player C should have a BABIP that is higher, let alone 86 points higher. That is not really a disputable argument, right?
So we know that Player B is JP in AAA this year. Player C is Fancisco Lindor in his AAA season before his call up.
Point is…everyone puts way too much emphasis on batting average. JP is going to be fine. I have always viewed Lindor as his comp offensively. So long as his defense is on par, he will be a very big impact short stop. This is just a speed bump along the way.
I am by no means a hitting expert. I just read a lot about hitting and watch a lot of (slo mo) video of great hitters. Here is my view on hitting:
The only thing a hitter can do is make consistently hard contact. Great hitters have two things in common physically:
1. Elite eyesight. The average MLB hitter has 20:12 acuity. Elite hitters are slightly better.
2. Quick hands.
My view is if you have those physical traits, the only things that will stop you from having a high batting average are:
1. Bad luck. I.e hard hit balls that are caught
2. Mechanical flaw in swing. This happens to every hitter.
3. A swing path that lends itself to a specific field (i.e. Extreme pull hitters) and great pitching/defense take that away at higher levels.
Although I have never seen an eye test, I am comfortable arguing that JP Crawford has exceptional vision. Likely better than 20:12. His very high walk rates and low K rates bear that out. Reports that I have read over the years make me believe that he also has very quick hands. He also hits the ball to all fields.
Therefore any slump in batting average is a result of:
1. Bad luck. I.e. Uniquely low babip
2. Mechanical flaw. This might be an issue too.
Both are fixable.
Might have to double check this but I’m almost positive that Crawford wears contacts.
Thank you, v1. There are too many people who just look at batting average.
Thanks for the analysis v1. Are line drive outs included in the infield fly balls? Or do the numbers say that he’s popping up too much?
LD % are same (19%) for player A, B and C.
Thank you V1. We need proper perspective before jumping to conclusions.
Since returning from his groin injury, JPC is hitting .273 with 14 XBH’s, 14 bb’s, and 15 k’s in 24 games… I would say that the time off helped.
Injuries can affect swing mechanics…which is scenario #2 above.
v1, perhaps the same can be said with Randolph. He has been on fire. He had some injury issues.
Yes, I also think the he’s been tweaking his mechanics a bit to generate more power. He’s drastically increased his HR and XBH numbers over the last month as well.
In his first 625 PA in AAA, he had a total of just 23 XBH. He’s had 14 in the last 102 PA’s.
Regarding the deadline, my view of Klentak and MacPhail will be more highly informed by whether they have maximized the chips they have. A creative deal (i.e. a trade for Yelich and Stanton) might make them more attractive to FAs both this off season and especially in ’18. Neshek or any rental alone can’t get back more than a lottery ticket. Kendrick will more likely be an August waiver move.
Only 14 days to find out….
With Altherr likely going on the DL today as Cesar returns in Miami, they will probably hold off on any OF promotions until after the deadline.
I concur with you on Andy and Matt being on the clock so to speak. To date I am neither hot nor cold on them, but from now thru spring training something has to occur to make this a team worth watching. This is not a good baseball team and needs a shakeup to better the chemistry, produce more energy and baseball savvy on the field…………….and I am not one to advocate gutting the system to attain it.
If you pull the trigger too early on trades during a rebuild you can cannibalize the rebuild – depriving yourself of the very players you need to succeed in the long run and putting the team in a constant state of mediocrity. Exhibit A – the San Diego Padres. I know they need to move some players, but they need to be careful about it.
Why not moving Hellickson, Neshek, Nava, Kendrick(if he weere healthy) today versus in two weeks, I would think yuo will not back anymore in return by waiting…perhaps less since other GMs do not hesitate?
Last year Klentak waited on Hellickson and then it disappeared on him….take whatever the market will give you I would think.
This group of Hellickson, Nava, et al are not the players of tomorrow…and the return for them will probably be players after the current Pigs/Reading prospect group anyway.
you will not ‘get’ back
LOL trading them now won’t hurt the rebuild. None of them will bring back high impact players.
Seriously? You think I’m talking about Hellickson, Neshek, Nava and Kendrick? Of course I’m not talking about those players – they should all be moved if possible. I’m talking about their best PROSPECTS. Guys like Sixto and Hoskins and Crawford and Kingery – guys like that.
I do not get ,what you are getting at?
Who is talking about trading the young prospects?
Unless you get a Trout or Machado in return…why would the Phillies want to trade any of them?
I would hope the Phillies would not entertain trading them for a Stanton and Yelich.
Sorry, I read your post to suggest that I was not sure whether they should move Hellickson, Neshek, Kendrick and Nava which, of course, they should.
Funny you mention this, Romus. Buster Olney says we shouldn’t have to wait too long for a Pat Neshek trade http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/17016/olney-players-who-will-be-traded-before-the-deadline.
If you’re not an ESPN Insider, Olney says, “A lot of relievers will move between now and the waiver trade deadline on Aug. 31, but Neshek is expected to be among the first right-handers. The 36-year-old All-Star has allowed just five runs in 36⅓ innings, and he has been equally effective against left-handers and right-handers.”
With Altherr out, How about giving Dylan Covens a taste of the majors?
Yeah, I guess that’s fine if you want to see him hit .185 for the first two months or so. In my view, he should still be in the minors until at least the beginning of September perhaps even until May or June of next year. He is doing okay this year (power has translated, but contact skills have been iffy), but he still has a way to go.
By the way, maybe we DO want him to hit .185. Aaron Judge saw MLB pitching last year and struggled, but figured it out over the winter and came back ready to roll – very reminiscent of Mike Schmidt’s first year where he, too, was under .200. Some guys learn from the failure while others regress – it’s hard to know.
I wonder how far away we are from developing a hologram room for players to go in and face all the lefties they want. The technology must exist in some form don’t you think?
That’s a really good point and I recall, all the way back in the 80s, there was a technology for guys to hit against video of pitchers with the ball being released from a machine behind a screen showing a video showing a pitcher. Howard Johnson used it to great effect to learn to hit breaking pitches.
Sorry for the poor wording. In the 80s there was a technology where a video of a pitcher was shown on a screen and when the pitch was released by the pitcher in the video, a ball came out where his hand was located. Perhaps this technology is still used – I don’t know.
Is Dylan Cozens 6’6″ yet?
Baseball’s towers of power
All-time leaders in HRs hit among players who stand 6-foot-6 or taller.
Dave Winfield 6-foot-6….465
Adam Dunn 6-foot-6….462
Dave Kingman 6-foot-6… 442
Frank Howard 6-foot-7….382
Darryl Strawberry 6-foot-6… 335
Richie Sexson 6-foot-7….306
Tony Clark 6-foot-8… 251
Giancarlo Stanton 6-foot-6… 234
Corey Hart 6-foot-6…162
In the year 2000 the Phillies had a 27 y/o SS named Desi Relaford. I remember him being a fan favorite of sorts with limited offensive ability.
A kid by the name of J-Roll was called up in Sept of that year and played in 14 games started 11. He and the Phillies never looked back. He went on to be the Phillies everyday SS for the next 14 years.
In his first 3 big league seasons he struck out over 100+ Times. He never struck out 100 times again after that until his age 35 season which was his last with the Phillies.
All sounds good, just don’t remember Relaford being a fan favorite. That guy makes Galvin look like the Babe.
I don’t understand what you are getting at. Are you saying that the team should bring up Crawford and Cozins?
I did leave that a little vague didn’t I. I do think at some point Crawford should be brought up whether that’s in August or Sept is up for discussion but I believe in JP as an everyday SS in the MLB.
And while I love Freddy’s glove and his make-up I believe JP is the better player all around.
DMAR….not sure they will put Crawford on the 40 until November when they have to.
The wise play is to give September time to guys you know you are going to protect (Crawford*, Therrien*, Cozens) or need to consider offering Rule 5 protection to (Anderson, Appel, Pullin*, Tocci*).
* = adds
It would be easy for me to subtract Blanco, Kelly and Benoit aside from the roster spots freed up by trades prior to September.
I just assume they will do with Crawford like they did with Williams last year.
Not call him up in September.
Though both have gone in polar opposites…last year Williams starting hot and faded miserable at this point in ’16, and Crawford this year is doing the opposite so far and starting to trend upwards.
Plus…..they seem to have some deeper allegiance to Freddy, especially for the remainder of this season….Crawford may not see any noticeable playing time if called up..
The team should have brought up Kingery for at least the six weeks Cesar went down. Damn the 40 man and arbitration clock.
Those six weeks would have been invaluable for Kingery starting next year. If Kingery was fair to middling you send him down when Cesar comes back and bring Kingery back up 9/1. And if Kingery was very good as the starter you keep him as the starter and tough luck Cesar.
There’s a lot of impatient fans here today…
These last few years after the 100 year bloom so to speak I think have made the masses a little impatient
It’s been almost month since I’ve actively post. But nothing significant have changed since my early season stance:
a) The Phillies still lack elite talent – I’m still beating the drum on Otani, Machado and Trout and hoped for an aggressive J2 signings.
b) The future 2B is not currently in the 40-man – I got a negative rep for this.
c) WAR is a stat that measures a player value HISTORICALLY (which means in the past). I still prefer players/prospects with elite skills regardless of WAR.
d) Aaron Nola is really good not just a 5th starter. Don’t be fooled by velocity. The command of his pitches is A+ and the movement in this 2S and CB are wicked.
e) Ricardo Pinto is a good pitcher. I viewed him the highest (ranked #16 in my pre-season list) in all of the pre-season ranking I’ve seen. Pinto attacks the strike zone and can dominate with his FB-CU combo.
f) Egdar Garcia is my sleeper (pitching) prospect that I’m high (ranked #28 in my pre-season list) than the most. He will shoot up the ladder as a back end reliever.
g) JP Crawford is still a fine prospect. He is not known to be an offensive player and for any loud tools (thus, ranked and drafted outside Top 10 in 2013) but his defense and plate discipline are legit. JPC is the best option at SS going forward unless they acquired Machado and play him at SS.
h) Roman Quinn has question marks but he is a game changing type of a player. If Quinn can play, start him.
i) I compared Nick Pivetta to Jerad Eickhoff – but Pivetta is starting to prove to be the better player with higher upside.
j) I’ve never publicly criticized Maikel Franco, but I prefer Machado as the future 3B.
k) Mickey Moniak as the #1 pick. I still think that this is a smart decision.
l) Although I preferred Kyle Funkhouser as the 4th rd pick in 2016, JoJo Romero is making Johnny A. look good.
m) I still prefer Kolby Allard vs C Randolph. C’s limitation as LF is something I can’t get over with.
My satisfaction with the 2016 draftees is what driving why I’m underwhelmed with the 2017 batch. I will eventually warm up once I’ve seen/followed the newbies in the next couple of months.
I agree with much of what you said, but I don’t understand your point about WAR. Of course it measures what has historically occurred, just as every other meaningful stat is baseball does (OPS, ERA, WHIP, OBP, homers, average – all of these are historical numbers). As for preferring tools over WAR, that sounds like apples and oranges. Prospects don’t have WAR yet, so I’m not sure where you’re going with that. If what you’re saying is that, with prospects, you can’t just focus on their stats and need to pay attention to elite tools as well, I agree with that, at least to some degree.
my point about WAR is that it is not an “end all be all”. I think WAR can be effective to award players for the performance (i.e. MVPs, All-Starts, etc) and for trades and contract negotiations, but not for projections of players and prospects.
the current Phillies is concerned about the future —- so they should focus on player development and in order to develop an elite player they need prospects with top notch tools and abilities. If they can’t develop, buy the elite talent in the market (free agency).
WAR to me is a currency. My stance in this regard is that when a player’s WAR exceeds his physical skills and abilities – SELL HIM!
I disagree greatly with your assessment of WAR – it’s not about rewarding players it’s about assessing and more fully measuring performance.
I think what you’re not getting is how hard it is for players (elite or not) to generate positive WAR. You automatically assume that an elite player will generate positive WAR, and that is 100% not the case. Remember when Jurickson Profar was one of the top prospects in all of baseball? Well, Odubel has way more career WAR than him.
KuKo….this is where we differ…WAR to me is …an end all – be all.
And just to clarify…..’when a player’s WAR exceeds his physical skills and abilities – SELL HIM!’?????
How can this ever be possible?
@romus – i should say stats rather than focus on WAR. when it comes to sports and athletics, actual abilities matter above numbers especially when it comes to sustainability of performance.
people look at the “number/stats” as a means of measurement at a point in time that’s why i believe that the stats are good only for awards, trades and contract negotiations.
Analytics (or statistics) is just a tool that the FO uses to make smart decisions. it is important, but it (analytics/stats) is just one of the factors that the FOs consider to be successful — so it is not an end all be all.
if you believe that WAR is an End All Be All, then you’re in the line of the analytics group. Front offices, on the other hand, are forced to make their peace with uncertainty and project what will be, whether that’s how prospects/players will develop or how free agents will age and adapt (i.e. changes in coaches/players/teams/systems/opportunity can impact a player’s performance). At best, you’re dealing with varying degrees of uncertainty in which statistics cannot measure.
Certainty is an illusion, and fearing uncertainty is a trap we fall victim to far too often this is why people hold on dearly historically facts/data to cover their a$__es.
KuKo…..I guess then I am certainly in the analytical group.
And can understand projection involves risk and the uncertainty.
Will Mike Trout still be a 9WAR player when he returns? Little doubt there.
But will Dylan Cozens in 2018 be the next Cody Bellinger/Aaron Judge/Joey Gallo or Gary Sanchez of 2016 to come into the majors?
So it is all about risk and projecting the unknown.
@romus – that’s where we separate. i thrive in taking risks so i aligned myself with the FO. unfortunately for you, FOs hire analytics people and not the other way around.
This is a decent list. My notes:
a) Don’t hold your breath on this. Like I’ve mentioned before, other teams have way deeper pockets and more experience with international signings. I’m not saying that the Phillies won’t try, but they won’t be the front runners for most of those players.
c) At some point, players need to produce WAR. You could have elite skills and bomb out. Once upon a time, the Tigers traded 2 top 25 prospects (Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin) for Miguel Cabrera. This was a great haul for the Marlins. Unfortunately, they both flamed out huge.
h) Quinn can’t stay healthy period. If you have him as a starter, you almost have to have a very good OF bench. And what, we’ll have Nick Williams and Cozens on the bench waiting for Quinn to get injured? Either Quinn is on the bench or he gets traded elsewhere.
i) I would compare Pivetta to VV. Both with huge fastballs, ok command, and subpar secondary pitches. One or both of those guys may be ticketed for the bullpen in the near future. Eickhoff is steady. He can hang around a rotation and eat innings.
m) I think the Phillies thought C can rake. I mean, he could still do it, he’s only 20. We’ll see what happens.
a) the difference between the Phils vs the other big market team is the mindset of the FO — put a creative FO that will take risks and the Phils will flex its financial muscle. McPhail-Klentak are opposite of that – both are slow and deliberate.
c) until i can see WAR being directly tied up to winning World Series, WAR is just a stat like any other stat and a way for the stats guy to feel relevant. actual skills and mental fortitude wins titles – i’ll focus on players with those attributes.
h) i’ll play Quinn all the time until he broke again period. a good bench is a trait of a winning team, you don’t need an injury prone start before to decide to assemble a good bench.
i) i disagree that Pivetta’s breaking ball (CB or Slurve) is subpar. it’s mostly projected as above-average.
c) Skills and fortitude do win titles…when they are way better than the average player. In 2008, here is a sampling of WAR (Utley 9, Rollins 5.4, Victorino 4.4, Werth 3.7, Hamels 4.4, Moyer 2.8, Lidge 2.4).
h) Do you know what a good bench consists of? Nava has performed above and beyond what a normal 4th OF should do. The 4th OF of the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies? Geoff Jenkins with his sub .700 OPS.
i) I don’t know who’s saying that Pivetta’s curve is above average, because it’s certainly not me and certainly not the Brewers, who mashed his curveball like it was BP practice.
c) with the exception of Moyer, i don’t even need to see the WAR (or any stats) to conclude that those Phillies are really good players (they easily past the eye test) – in fact, the with the actual skills alone this group deserve more than 1 WS ring. you can nick pick any player and any stat, but the fact of the matter is, really good players win titles, not their stats.
h) i’m not sure how you want me to answer your question, but without knowing who we actually are, i’ll just assume that your knowledge is as good as mine.
i) you can disagree about the breaking ball, but using one game (vs Brewers) to support your conclusion is somehow weak. Just google Nick Pivetta to see some scouting reports or you can start MLB.com since Pivetta is included in the Top 20/30 organizational ranking from 2014-2016.
i should say pass not past for c)
c) WAR puts into numbers what your “eyeball test” is telling you. You know that Utley is good. How good? Well, 9 WAR good.
i) I’ve pretty much seen all of Pivetta’s starts and not once did I see that curveball flash above average. Not once. It’s average at best, and It’s not average most starts. Now maybe it’ll come around later, but for now, it’s nowhere close.
I’m no scout, but I’ve been watching baseball since the 80s and I think I can recognize a decent curveball. Pivetta’s curveball is more of a change of pace, surprise pitch for hitters who are gearing up to attack a 97 fastball. And Pivetta has a tendency to hang it too.
Pivetta’s curve at times…Ricky Bottalico called it at times, like an agitator in a washing machine….just spins.
@guru – when does WAR exist? does it exist in 2008 when you used it as an example? WAR and all other stats are used in conjunction with one another to be meaning. i guess my issue with WAR is — this is being used as an end all be all stat and end of story. different baseball outlets cannot even come up with a consistent WAR calculation.
WAR is a very good stat, but it is more effective to be used with other stats and understand that WAR is based on a historical performance. mostly likely than not, stats/WAR mirrors the players actual skills and capabilities — stats/WAR shows upward trend when players physically mature and starts a downward trend when players age.
KK … about your point “L”: After the last year’s draft I mentioned Johnny Almarez may be second guessed for picking JoJo Romero over Oregon LHP Matt Krook (who went later in the 4th round to SF). One year later, and Almarez gets a big win for that pick.
JoJo … 102 K, 28 BB, 1.06 WHIP, 1.91 ERA, 94 IP between Lakewood and Clearwater.
Krook … 73 K, 53 BB, 1.75 WHIP, 6.19 ERA, 64 IP in A+
yeah, i’ll be rooting for JoJo to keep it up and forget about funkhouser.
on Otani, imagine he’d prefer AL if a team would offer him a chance to DH some, but since Otani idolizes Darvish, would you consider signing Darvish both to give the Phils a #1, and help lure Otani?
I will sell to Otani that in NL, pitchers bat and pitch most of the time. and he can be the #1 pinch hitter if he prefers. i’m not sure when Otani can be signed, but with or without Otani, Darvish is a good option for a 3-5 year contract with $23-25M AAV.
Calling up Cozens has no downside, only upside. This is the opportunity to do it with Altherr going to DL.
The only apprehension I have with calling up JP is that Freddy means more to the team than Desi Relaford did then – not homegrown or a big performer. I could be wrong.
At this point right now, JP does not deserve to be called up. Now if JP had an .800 OPS, that would be another story. So let him play out the next 7 weeks at Lehigh, and he’ll come up in September.
Cozens has been decent, not spectacular. He’s not forcing the Phillies hand. He’s not hot right now either. I’m leaning towards him staying at Lehigh.
Ummm JP since May 1 is 245/354/806 his trend has been in the right direction and sure that needs to continue for the next couple of weeks but if it does it’s time.
If it continues, it’ll already be August. In that case, you might as well let JP play out the season on a high note and then he can come up in September.
If Cozens loses confidence and begins to press or messes with his hitting mechanics, there is a definite downside. Many players do not recover well (if at all) from pre-mature promotions.
On J.P., when he’s ready, he should be recalled, but I expect it will be in September or next year.
With the Phillies reverse magic number at 67, I did a little math to figure out what their 2018 draft bonus pool will look like. Assuming they land the 1-1 pick (and considering the fact the Rays will get an extra comp A pick for not signing Drew Rassmussen this year), the Phillies will be able to spend almost 13.4 million dollars on next year’s picks. The slots usually go up 5% each year, although the 2017 slots were completely rewritten because of the new CBA. Here’s what I believe the Phillies bonus pool will look like next year:
round 1 …. $8,159,235
round 2 …. $1,892,940
round 3 …. $781,095
round 4 …. $526,995
round 5 …. $393,645
round 6 …. $294,945
round 7 …. $229,740
round 8 …. $181,965
round 9 …. $154,770
round 10 .. $143,745
+5% $ 637,953
NEW TOTAL $13,397,027
The 2018 bonus pool will be about 700-thousand dollars less than their 2016 pool. Yet, it will still provide Johnny Almarez with a nice war chest to bring aboard more high end pieces to the rebuild. And five months after next year’s draft, the doors open on the mightiest FA class in the history of MLB. #TrustTheProcess !!!!!!
Unlike the Sixers, Joel Embiid is “The Process” or at least presents as the “Face of the Process. Joel Embiid is showing to be a transcendent player – someone a championship teams always have (with very few exceptions).
For the Phils, the FO is the face of the Phillies own “Trust the Process”. I’ve been beating the Otani-Machado (plus Trout) with you but I still don’t see it with McPhail and Klentak. I have more trust with Sal A. and Johnny A. leading the process.
Hinkie…..have you done the math for the 1.2 pick?
Those Giants are a suspicious bunch.
Also heard Machado’s name being thrown about concerning the future.
Jim Salisbury has mentioned it a number of times.
Like KLaw has said…Duquette wilt trade him before letting him walk as a FA….so the Phillies would be wise to posit themselves for a winter meeting deal with the Os.
Trading for Machado is going to be a bad move unless the Phillies can agree to an extension with him first. He fits he 2019 Yankees like a glove. I think they or the Sox will be all over him.
Its been done before..sign and trade…Lozano would probably do it.
As for the Yanks and Sox…better beat them to the punch.
Though Harper may be what the Yankees want to harpoon anyway.
i can’t understand why Phillies fans easily conclude that Harper and now Machado fits like a glove with the Yankees. The Yanks are just playing bully in when it comes to talent acquisition. If the Yanks can buy every awards and World Series, they will do it — because the Yanks (or even BOS, LAD, etc) believe they can always do it. The fans are supposed to be the most optimist, if they can’t be even be positive what can we expect from always hesitant McPhail-Klentak tandem.
i do understand reality, and the reality is you reap what you sow. if you don’t go after elite talent, you will not get it. if you get satisfied average players, then you get an average team. i also understand that it is not my money, but as a fan, i’m just being optimist and would love to see my team to kick a_$.
If the Phillies are a 100 loss team next year (and that’s what they will be unless they start acquiring guys like Yellich) Harper and Machado won’t come here (although I think Machado is more likely to come here than Harper).
You can throw as much money at them as you want but these guys aren’t going to play for a market as intense as this to be the start on a 100 loss team, especially when they could go to New York or LA, enjoy a better nightlife and play on winning teams with young cores.
Yelich is an elite talent. The Phillies will be in play for them but there’s contenders out there with money too.
Ask yourself, honestly, would you turn down slightly more money from the Phillies next year to play for LA or New York? I would.
so you think that the rich are only the ones who get richer?! if you are talking about the older studs, then yes, winning comes first before money. but for the younger studs — $$$ (and lots of $$$), FO credibility, stability, sustainability and a lot of variables will be considered since they will be there for a longer hole. Harper even consider that the Phils are a good fit, eventhough the Phillies fans don’t think so. As much as I hate Harper, I want the FO to throw money on him if they can.
the Phillies FO needs to do a better job in expressing their intention to win now and win all the way at all cost – this is the best way to attract attention from key players. that’s the first step, in which McPhail and Klentak are failing badly (unless they have a backroom connection with their former organization for Machado).
All I’m saying is that if I’m Bryce Harper or Manny Machado and the Yankees or Dodgers offer me $400 million and the Phillies offer me $450 million I’d sign with the Dodgers or the Yankees.
Both teams have a young core that they have pieces already in place that are better than the Phillies players (Bellinger, Seager, Kershaw, Pederson), (Sanchez, Judge, Severino) with more talent on the way (Urias, Verdugo, Torres, etc). They also have just as much money to spend on the Phillies and will compete MUCH sooner or already are competing.
The Phillies aren’t as close as we think. We’re probably looking at 2019 before we start sniffing .500 and 2020, 2021 etc before we’re competitive.
That all changes if the Phillies acquire some REAL pieces before 2019 and show Harper and Machado that they’re ready to compete the minute they hit the field.
Also keep in mind that I think LA and NY are better places for a young, rich, man to live. Plus they could make up that $50 mil in endorsements and post season shares.
They will need it because the state taxation levels in both states will cut their “take” by another $ 25 million + so if the Phils offer 50 million more, in net terms it is more like 75 million…..more.
Baltimore would be wise to go into sell mode and begin their own rebuild. However, I think there’s less than a 30-percent chance of the Orioles trading Manny Machado this offseason. Peter Angelos is 87 YO and very stubborn. He wants to win, and will always believe his team can compete. He’ll wait until next season’s trade deadline before making a decision on Machado.
Machado then becomes a rental….Os will not get much in return.
Better to get him in the off-season and work out a long term deal and give the Os the prospects/players they would want in return.
As far as Peter Angelos….his son..John may be running the show these days.
Peter Angelos has a history of being a cheap owner. He wants to win but he isn’t willing to spend (or trade) to do it. He doesn’t want to tank either because I’m assuming he wants to keep fans in the seats (this goes back to him being cheap).
Realistically I think the likelyhood of a new core is going to come from Clearwater, Lakewood, and Williamsport. Between Kilome, Medina, Sanchez, Randolph, Brito, Moniak, Ortiz, and Haseley I think there could be 2-3 potential stars in there. Other than Crawford, Hoskins, Alfaro, Kingery, and Drew Anderson there’s not a lot of players I think are going to come up and make an impact in the short term of this franchise.
The idea of trading for Yelich makes a ton of sense. He’s a star under cost control and if some of these guys pan out he’ll have a ton of value on the FA market.
I could see the Phillies taking on the Marlins bad money (Dee Gordon, Martin Prado?, Wei-Yin Chen, or Junichi Tazawa) in exchange for a Caesar Hernandez, Franklin Kilome, and Mickey Moniak type of package.
The latest rumors ive seen seem to show the Phillies targeting Dee Gordon & Yelich. That would point to Hernandez being in the package. I don’t see the Phillies moving Kingery, Sixto Sanchez, or Crawford in a deal. I think my above trade scenario doesn’t do a hole lot to hurt the rebuild while speeding it up. Then maybe you eat money and flip Gordon to LAA or Toronto.
When the Cubs and Astros hit the 3/4 year mark, they went out and got pieces. They got Dexter Fowlers, Evan Gattis’s etc.
The idea that the next wave of Phillies is going to be home grown guys + Bryce Harper and a FA pitcher is a pipe dream. On the MLB club, right now the only guys I have pencilled in as potential core guys are Aaron Nola, Aaron Altherr, and Odubel Herrera.
I meant to have Cozens in the above package too.
Can Dee Gordon play SS or 3B? If so, I would make that trade without the long burden of the Stanton contract.
He came up as a SS but I don’t think he’s adequate enough there defensively.
I still think we’d have to take on more money (at least one more of those contracts I listed above) but with those all being short term commitments, we could still have financial flexibility for Machado next year or even a JD Martinez & Darvish in FA this year (although I’d like them to target Alex Cobb as a FA).
Nick Fanti pitched a no hitter today for Lakewood.
12 strikeouts and only one walk.
So far, the guy has exceeded all expectations for a late round draftee.
Yes, he has. Now let’s see how far he can run with this.
Keith Law tweeted from the game, so it will be interesting to see what he writes about Fanti. The Ks have to get some attention.
Will see the truer test for Fanti when he starts to face hitters in AA level and above.
I think, however, he will do well in the FSL, I assume next year
He has 90 innings this year…more than ever for him, so I guess they will let him get to 120 or so then shut him down for the season..
Yup – AA is where the rubber hits the road for pitching prospects. If he can do well there, then you have to take him quite seriously.
Second year in a row he has thrown two no-hitters…threw two last spring in HS on the Island, and now two this summer. The guy must be a no-hit machine.
Correction….two in spring’15 .
Romus excellent call by you. You were on him from draft day. WHAT WAS HIS VELOCITY??
rocco……I am sure his velo has not changed in the last week!
Maybe he hit 91…maybe a hot gun from his release…who knows.
I heard from friends at the game he was in the low 90’s and threw alot “like Adam Morgan,” off speed etc. That is not my comment but other observers.
As the trade deadline nears and the FA period this off season and next, I only hope the FO doesn’t show up with knives in a gun fight. they have the talent depth and money to do almost what they need to.
I live in Marietta, GA. Tonight I’ll be going to see the Pigs play at Gwinnett, about 45 minutes East. They are here Monday through Wednesday. Lakewood is visiting Rome, Wednesday through Friday. Rome is about 1 hour North. My plan is to see games all five days. What I do on Wednesday depends on pitching matchup. I’ve been looking forward to this week all summer.
Looks like Falter on Wednesday vs Rome.
Thanks, Romus! Makes my decision easy…Rome it is.
For the WAR people, can you define to me what’s your definition (not the acronym) of WAR? i came back full circle just about a month ago about this discussion. I’ve been arguing about WAR but I’m even sure if we all have the same understanding and definition of WAR. Different definition results to different interpretation. My definition is similar to fangraph.
By the way, got this from J. Stolnis write up in TGP:
“Consider that since Odubel Herrera became the Phils’ starting center fielder in 2015, he actually has more fWAR (9.3) than Yelich (8.6). Yelich’s slash line (.296/.370/.443) over that time is slightly better than Herrera’s (.284/.340/.420), and Yelich’s wOBA (.351) is also better than Odubel’s (.328). But is the difference enough to warrant giving up a top-tier prospect, plus more?”
I appreciate the relevance of statistics but i’ve been a proponent of physical abilities. Whether you’re a stat/WAR guy or not, I would think that 90% would rather have Yelich over Doobie regardless of what the fWAR say. it’s not that i don’t believe in WAR/fWAR/bWAR – i just think that WARs should not be used in isolation.
Dude – is this really the hill you want to die on. Lets move on huh?
I would trade Cesar, Moniak, Cozens and Kilome for Yelich and Gordon, then flip Gordon in the off season unless you can do it immediately after the trade. BTW, how many years does Gordon have left on his contract?
I agree we need to make a splash to attract FAs. Try to sign Moustakas. Realistically I don’t see acquiring both Machado AND Harper. An OF of Altherr, Yelich and Harper would be rather impressive.
I also agree with David Murphy who suggests the Phils and NYY are good fits for a ToJo package trade. His greatest asset is his arb status. That’s big to MLB clubs these days.
through 2020 with million dollar buyout for 2021.owed about 38 mil over next 3 years.
I understand what you are giving up for Yelich, but seems high with a salary dump.
Moniak is now expendable with Haseley moving up fast, no need to add Kilome, & I would switch Doobie or Williams for Cozens.
Cozens is a wildcard, but his plus power is too much to trade off now. Would agree if it were a few years ago, but he is closer to the show now.
You would rather trade a 4.0 WAR CF than Cozens? He’s probably a platoon RF/1B. I don’t think he’s ever been on a top 100. Honestly, I thought that package was kind of light what I suggested it.
when* I suggested it.
Some guys on this site actually want to see the Phillies get on some kind of streak and win a few games and play out the season with some momentum. As of right now, they are playing at .333 which is an embarrassment.
Others want them to totally tank to assure that 1-1 pick next year. I understand that playing .500 baseball in the remaining 72 games would put them in jeopardy of garnering that top pick. But, man, let’s go out with some pride!
Hinkie wrote that the magic number to get 1-1 is 67. I think that instead of calling this a “magic”number, we should call it a “tragic” number because this season would be a tragedy as well as a travesty. Let’s play with a little pride.
It’s not smart in baseball to tank unless you plan to wipe the entire team. ‘Otherwise, it bleeds into next season. You need to see what you have to ensure a strong start next year.
The players on the field are not tanking…they are playing for their careers and jobs.
That can be a misnomer that people throw around all the time….this or that team are tanking.
If the Phillies decided tomorrow to bring up Hoskins, Kingery, Alfaro and Cozens…is that tanking?
Surely they will have adjustments to be made to big league pitching in the middle of other teams playoff aspirations.
It could look real ugly….but is it tanking or player development for the future?
Playing ToJo, Franco, Freddy, Doobie et al…..experienced MLB players now, surely cannot be considered tanking.
Not sure why the term is thrown out there.
A GM like Hinkie could never be hired by the Phillies or tolerated by this fanbase.
Old as*backwards thinking…
I disagree. The FANS bought into Hinkie because they understood that he was about making the team great for the long run – THEY were paitent. It was ownership and the league management that caused the Sixers to displace Hinkie. If we had a GM that was about making great long-term moves, I think the fans would buy in and, frankly, this GM and President have also been focused long term so it’s not that different from Hinkie except, I can guarantee you, a Hinkie regime would have been sure to tank enough games so that we were not picking 8th or 10th – what a joke that was. And to what end?
I think the point is different. A bullpen without Neshek (and Ramos in the Valley) is cellophane thin. If Therrien comes up and shines, it could turn out well but is still thin.
Assuming they move Kendrick (and Nava ?), their return is down the road and the roster in the meantime is thinner. Mackanin looking down the bench for a pinch hitter and seeing Rupp, Kelly, Blanco, Stassi and Perkins might be inclined to direct Matt Stairs to grab a bat.
To me the definition of ‘tanking’ includes front office moves that ignore current success as a consideration.
Tanking doesn’t ignore success as a consideration – quite the opposite actually.
It trades short term success in exchange for more success in the long term.
To say tanking ignores success is the exact opposite of what leads teams to tank. They tank to win more because they recognize that it’s the best path to a championship.
Yours was a very selective reading of what I said. The word ‘current’ must not have gotten through.
Tanking is sacrificing short term success for long term success. sports is competition and everyone involve in it is supposed to be competitive. no competitive individual who will s_ck up to losing for no reason at all whether they are paid or not.
HInkie has been very transparent about it, thus #TrustTheProcess, that’s why the fans bought the idea. While McPhail and Klentak have been very timid and gun shy about their road to contention plan that’s why fans have no clue what direction they are going. #TrustTheProspects is a make up of someone not part of the Phillies FO.
Very simply, I would rather pick 1.1 than 1.4. If they stink, and they do, there is no reason to give up the perks that winning more than SF or SD or the ChiSox give you. Any “bleeding over” of a losing team is still there if you played on the worst or 4th worst team in the league. The only possible future starter that I see is Altherr. To have witnessed this poor assemblage of baseball talent and not get the the 1.1 pick as a prize, adds insult to injury.
Unless there is a Harper or Trout out there, I don’t think it matters much whether the Phillies pick 1.1 or 1.4. They had 1.1 last year and many people already– including guru KLaw — are questioning that decision. Who’s to say they wouldn’t make a questionable decision at 1.1 next year? Again, with no consensus future super star at this point. As a fan, I want us to win games — now.
@SWFL – with or without a consensus 1.1, it still matter to be 1.1 vs 1.4 because of the $$ pool. I think most are happy with the 2016 draft because the Phils have 1-2 biggest $$ pool that there were able to utilize and sign overslots on Gowdy, Stobbe, Romero and Irvin and some late round picks like Stephen, Kyle Young.
that should be “winning less”
Funny mlb has the Phillies tied Dee Gordon . That’s 3 mlb players the Phillies have been tied too. All Miami players Dee Gordon ,Stanton , Yelich . Why Gordon maybe Phillies are looking for a Gordon , Yelich , 1 of there Bp pieces . Maybe The MARLINS want Ceaser who’s cheaper.
I’m just curious Yelich and Stanton are nice players but if they are as good as some try to build them up to be how come the Marlins can’t win with them? And if the Marlins can’t win with them how the H are we going to win with them.
Secondly someone explain to me why Stanton would ever in a million years waive his No Trade to come here at this point in time?
Finally any time you fall in love with a guy because of what he does to you in your own park you are just begging to be stupefied.
That said would I take either of them….abso friggin lutely within reason.
Maybe this year Klentek will trade Hellickson to the fish for let’s say….Gordon, Yelich, AND Stanton. Of course, I jest. He’ll get very little for Hellickson this time around if he can move him at all.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Marlins won’t be trading the “big fish” until the off season which makes sense since the new ownership would likely want to control which talent gets “sold off”. Unless of course that’s their GM-speak posturing to lure more aggressive bidders….
I don’t mean to start up the WAR convo but find a player who you want that doesn’t have a decent war . . . If someone plays well his WAR will normally support that, no?
Doobie is an enigma…but the best WAR on the Philies over the last two plus years.
At this rate, over a 10 -year career with the Phillies he could be a 35WAR player.
The biggest problem with Odubel is figuring out who the heck he is as a hitter. It’s clear he has become an outstanding defender – he’s a 1-2 centerfielder defensively, which is nothing to take lightly.
But as a hitter, who the heck is he? Is he a low OBP guy with no discipline. Is he a potential batting crown champ with a lot of walks. Could he be a 25 homer guy? After 3 years in the big leagues, due to his erratic approach to hitting, nobody really knows. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a major league hitter as schizophrenic as Odubel and this is caused by a very erratic and inconsistent approach. It is also not helpful that he has stopped paying attention to details and base coaches so he’s now turned into a dumb baserunner. But is this just phase or is this the new Odubel? Again, nobody really knows.
There are two outfielders who immediately jump into my mind with what you described–Vernon Wells and Melvin Upton. Both were guys that might hit .300/.380/.500 or .240/.300/.370
Yeah, and, on the whole, those guys didn’t have great careers. The only other hitter I can think of who was that schizophrenic was Adrian Beltre early in his career – once he got to age 30 or 31 he became consistent, but earlier on you had little idea of what you were getting on a year to year basis. Odubel has a world of ability, but he’s got to get his head screwed on right. What an odd duck he is.
Romus, then there has to be something wrong with that calculation. I don’t mean to get KuKo riled up, but regardless of what those numbers might say, Doobie is not that good. He is the opposite of Chase Utley. He is lacking in baseball instincts and makes some of the dumbest plays you will ever see. WAR is supposed to be “wins against replacement” and he is very easily replaceable. So I can’t reconcile the numbers with what I actually see.
@ matt13 – thank you! WAR is Wins Above Replacement — and the Phils have better replacement for Doobie and Cesar that’s why I want to sell high on them. This is the same reason why I’ve been quiet on Franco since there’s no replacement. if they get Machado as 3B, then you’ll hear from me.
I’m not picking on you, I’m really not. But I don’t think you understand how hard it is for a player to get 3 WAR in a given year. For the most part, you don’t get that off the street. Odubel did it at age 23 and 24. And I’m assuming that you want either Quinn (who’s 24 and who hasn’t stayed healthy in the last 3 years) or Altherr (who’s 26 already and projecting to be a shade under 3 WAR).
So you’re assuming that one of those 2 guys will generate WAY more than the likely 3 WAR that Odubel will generate. So what are we talking about here? That Quinn and/or Altherr are 4-5 WAR players? Are we betting on that?
In any other professional team sport, Doobie probably fails.
But in baseball, where a measurable is individually accounted for without a teammates interaction, he can thrive.
WAR does have a lot of that individuality built into its formula.
However, for an analytical guy…he can be a cross between a wet-dream and a nightmare.
How does a GM value him for trade purposes?
One of the main saving graces for Doobie…..his contract is very team friendly.
So when the day comes and he is mentioned in a trade, he will not have that negative going against him.
@romus – as i been saying before, trade negotiations is something where those WAR (and other stats) come in handy since both team need to measure the value of a player and run comparables as initial basis of trade talks. WAR/$ is another good measure and since Doobie is young and still developing, the Phils can sell him that he is trending upward.
i’m pretty much in line with matt13, with Quinn as my preferred lead off hitter playing CF which Altherr can keep warm until Haseley and/or Moniak comes up.
although i know it’s a long shot and most think it’s a dream pipe – the Phils should have Trout, Machado and Harper (and Otani on the pitching side) in their cross sights.
KuKo…well we agree on that point about trading value for value with WAR used as a measuring stick when possible….prospects aside.
And keep your dream alive….you are certainly weaving it pretty good.
oh yeah, i’ve been doing the propaganda work for Klentak since it appears they don’t know how to do it. i’ll start the #Roadto2020 campaign if i need to. Otani-Machado-Harper-Trout. All roads to free agents lead to Philly! if the Phils put good product in the field, the fans will support it which means $$ for them.
I also admire your faith, Kuko. If the Phillies can bag Darvish AND/OR Otani this off season, then sign either Machado or Harper the next, I think by 2020 the Millville Meteor will be eager to return home!
I try hard to envision a future Phils team that makes the playoffs, and I don’t see Doobie as part of it. Roman Quinn was my guy to play CF and bat leadoff, but he clearly can not stay healthy, so I am now on the Haesley bandwagon. Although, the idea of trading for Moustakas and Cain from KC is intriguing. I am very leery of raising my hopes that they are able to get Machado, and I think there is a very minimal chance of getting Harper, so looking elsewhere.
My guess is a Neshek to Boston deal probably is not going to happen because the Red Sox’ system has been so depleted. They really have only one realistic candidate to deal. 3B-man Michael Chavis is blocked by Rafael Devers. However, Chavis will probably be dealt to the White Sox for Todd Frazier (and maybe a reliever). Dombroski is not trading Devers or Jay Groome. Chavis is his lone bullet, and he’ll probably use it for a short term 3B-man.
Phillies should be targeting pitching or 3B-man. Yankees and Brewers make the most sense.
Jon Paul Morosi says the Mariners are buyers seeking controllable starting pitching…I propose Vince Velazquez for Kyle Lewis 🙂
I wanted Lewis from the jump last draft and maybe this would be my road to nab him. Not that VV is the type of controllable pitcher they are seeking to grab the Wild Card they are seeking.
I see where you are going with this….and then flip Lewis and Cozens for Yelich and Stanton. Good idea. 🙂
No way Romy my OF of the future is Haseley, Lewis and Beer….how ya like me now.
I like Beer….but they may go pitching next year with the first pick
My hope is that Matty K is spending more time on deals for his young some what proven big leaguer’s who are controllable
Those are his only real value pieces. Pieces that can bring you a big piece to your future if you’ve scouted well.
early this season, if you mentioned Herrera and Cesar in a trade, it feels like the whole site collapse on you. how things have changed in a month.
where’s the thumbs up and down option? did Jim took it out?
Early this season you didn’t know a lot about guys like Altherr and a draft of Haseley and a welcome emergence of Kingery. You couldn’t go off all half cocked making moves.
That’s not how GMing works. But your objection is duly noted Kuko
I think the Astro’s are going to want a SS….Correa out 6-8 weeks
Free Freddy Galvis! Despite of the struggles in AAA, i still believe that JPC can hit better than his AAA stat line.
they are so far out in front, they dont need to do anything drastic though.
Question raised on MLBTR chat today. Would Aaron Nola, if made available, bring the highest return of the SPs thought to be on the market? Example, Sonny Gray. The writer said yes, based on Nola’s number of controllable years. What do you think?
matt13…..IMO, Nola would bring back 2, maybe 3 premier prospects. For example, the Yankees would probably give up Torres and their top pitching prospect in their system and maybe even added a younger guy like a Guzman or Perez.
I also read John Stolnis article in TGP site. I love Nola, and don’t like to see him go unless its for Mike Trout or any established young player. The Phils can deal VV and Eickhoff and the other young SPs in Eflin, Lively, but i rather keep Nola and Pivetta.
Nola for Yelich straight up to me is still a hard decision, and i might still balk on trading Nola since the Phils have a deep option in CF where Yelich is projected to play.
BA’s Top Ten Prospects:
The one outstanding thing about this….8 of the 10 are Latin signees.
And five of the Latin 8 were big ticket money signees.
..Rosario, Robles and Acuna were typical standard signs of way less than $1M
1 Yoan Moncada 2B White Sox
2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B Blue Jays
3 Gleyber Torres SS Yankees
4 Amed Rosario SS Mets
5 Eloy Jimenez OF White Sox
6 Rafael Devers 3B Red Sox
7 Brendan Rodgers SS Rockies
8 Victor Robles OF Nationals
9 Nick Senzel 3B Reds
10 Ronald Acuna OF Braves
wow, guerrero jr at #2. BA puts premium on projection and the CHISOX are really doing a good job in maximizing their trade returns.
i can see Sixto breaking BA Top 50 and probably the Phils #1 prospect.
Hopefully, Ortiz will also make that list in 2018 or 2019.
Not 1 pitcher , it’s Funny a second baseman leads the pack.
Yes…that is odd…no pitchers.
I have to assume the Cardinal’s Reyes or WSox Kopech will get up there soon.
To keep my dream alive, below is my odds to land a premiere FA in 2018 offseason. I still have the Phils in the 1-2 % wise to sign – Harper and/or Machado.
First, The Phils will have the most financial flexibility amongst the big spenders come 2018 – that’s important. Second, some of the big market teams already have their RF and/or 3B and with $$ commitments, I can see some teams to utilize their farm to fill the position.
For Harper, LAD can be the dark horse but Kershaw (who can opt out) can somehow affect their plan. Emergence of Judge will work well for the Phils, although I can see the Yanks still go after Harper and move Judge to LF.
For Machado, if the Phils missed on Harper, I can see them go hard on Machado. This is where McPhail-Klentak factor will help. If the Yanks signed Harper, they might skip of Machado since they have Andujar, BOSOX have Devers to minimize salary. Cubs will fill other holes since they have Bryant and LAD still have Turner in their payroll.
Yankees 20% (RF – Judge)
Cubs 15% (RF – Heyward)
Red Sox 10% (RF – Betts)
Yankees 15% (3B – Andujar)
Red Sox 15% (3B – Devers)
Dodgers 10% (3B – Turner)
Cubs 0% (3B – Bryant)
Harper to the Yankees
Machado to the Phillies
Not sure it will be the Yankees, but I don’t think Harper will sign with the Phillies. I think Machado is a Phillie next year.
I wonder if you factor into your Harper to Philly scenario the fact that Scott Boras is Harper’s agent. I see the likelihood of Harper signing here as roughly ,002 %. I’m stupified by the thought you raise of Harper twice as likely to land in Philly as remaining in D.C. I know no close watcher who would share that view.
If Machado goes to free agency, your odds are in the ballpark. I don’t think he will, at least as an Oriole. I could see a Roy Halladay situation where a team is given time to negotiate an extension as part of a trade. What doesn’t get much attention in the Machado discussion here is that Adam Jones and Zach Britton become free agents after the ’18 season, too. Britton may not wear the O’s uniform a month from now but folks in Baltimore think Angelos will be forced to choose between Jones and Machado with the other going in a trade.
Whether Boras is actively involved or not, the Phils financial flexibility and financial capability will make them players to any big time FAs. Harper knows that his stats will climb up playing 82 games at CBP and that the Phils, being a big market team will soon make its big move to contention and even mentioned the Phils as a potential destination. some national outlets also consider the Phils as a key player for Harper.
You might be stupified, but the 20% probability holds more water than the 0.002% that you are thinking.
Not buying. “Whether Boras is actively involved or not”. Do you know any agent who wouldn’t get involved in the free agent signing of his top client? Do you read what you write?
In regardless of the agent, Harper is projected to earn at least $400M. Do you know how many teams are willing to pay that much money? Give and take 5 – NYY, LAD, BOS, CHI and PHI. Equally that’s 20% odds. Take out BOS since they have Betts – that’s down to 4 – 25%. Then further adjust with outliers – CHI is projected to significant $$ and they have Heyward and so on. Realistically you will rank the remaining 4 as follows:
I will add the rest of the field to make it 5 and give it equal chance, thus, 20% and give priority to NATS at 10% and the rest of the field the remaining 10% and readjust the remaining 80% to the teams who can afford Harper.
Working on this, you can true up the % and you will come up close to what I just posted.
I’m interested to see how you come up with yours (the 0.002%) rather than argue back and forth what was said and not said.
Realistically, I can see Harper signing with NYY. But I’m posting the odds with $$ as the biggest driver (which more or less Harper’s main consideration).
If you’re talking about dollars, you also have to factor in the ability of New York and Los Angeles to make a player a national, even an international, celebrity. That can result in many more dollars, not to mention the incomparable rush.
@SWFL – national yes, but international no. MLB is still way behind in branding their stars internationally. if you want to push further, we have to consider cost of living, family, culture, etc, etc. but i don’t to make it a complicated point just to argue with somebody.
nonetheless, the phils financial flexibility, financial capability, solid farm and middleton’s commitment to win will put the phils to one of the top potential landing spot for harper. quantifying that should put them side by side with NYY and above BOS and CHI and WAS.
even harper and the national outlets believe that matter, it’s not sure why some of us cannot accept that.
I’m in the D.C. market area where the mood is about Harper wanting to play for a winner, which the Nationals and their geriatric ownership is trying desperately to be. Not to be part of somebody’s re-build. Harper will get paid wherever he goes. Harper is part of a lineup which provides mutual protection and his results reflect that and compare that with the situation in Philly
Harper is close with guys like Zimmerman and Werth. Harper would become “the guy” in Philly where there would be no obvious mentor. It’s not lost on Harper how Werth is viewed in Philly. It’s not a selling point for Philly nor is the prospect of coming back to D.C.a couple of time as a mercenary, with the likely reaction, lost on him. Harper does a lot of marketing here in D.C. so one can’t say image doesn’t matter to him.
Boras has a good relationship with Ted Lerner and the Lerner family. If you look around baseball, there’s polarity on Boras with some teams like the Nats having many Boras clients and teams like the Phils who don’t. Anyone overlooking this as a consideration does so at their peril.
Harper, who is happy where he is, will re-sign with the Nats unless he becomes unhappy or some different order-of-magnitude offer comes his way. The Nats are in a position to match a ridiculous offer and the need to fit in guys like Murphy, Rendon and Wieters won’t get in the way of that. They have $102 M committed in ’19 so $40 M a year for Harper is not beyond their means.
All that factored in, my .002 % to Philly is generous. I respect your posts in general but on this I think your fandom has gotten in the way of your objectivity. I would love to be wrong and hope you are some day in a sound position to tell me I am when Harper’s future team becomes known.
JD Martinez traded to Dbacks for 3 prospects that I do not know much about. Why do I have the feeling Klentak will be a day late and a dollar short?
matt13….number 4, 15 and outside the 30 are the three prospects. Lugo is the highest.
As far as Matt K…..lets hope he can pull the trigger and just take the plunge.
Nice mixing of metaphors. (g)
Who is metaphors. I never heard of him, Does he play for Lakewood??
Third baseman and brother of simile.
fangraphs has a piece up on the reasons for the low return for JD.
That’s a nice return Romus, and I don’t mean to suggest that we have a Martinez to trade. I just have been underwhelmed with Klentak, and I hope I am wrong, but at the very least, I want Neshek and TJ and Kendricks and Hellickson traded and their spots filled with youngsters. But, I would like to see him pick up a “change of scenery” guy that just costs money.
Our biggest problem is that the players we SHOULD be moving aren’t anywhere near their reasonable value. Herrera and Franco won’t likely increase theirs that much in 13 days. I love Altherr as a future building block but he’s probably the most valuable trade commodity and now who knows whether he returns before the deadline. MacKlentak are not in the best leverage.
Man, Williams is a free swinger but when he connects, it’s goes far. Dude has some opposite power.
Not to get carried away but there’s something Junior-esque about Nick Williams. When Altherr returns might we have 2/3 of our future OF?
Junior-lite? As much as I want to agree with you, I can’t. Junior had a career .370 OBP and was a very good defender in his 20s. Nick won’t be taking too many walks and he’s a bit shaky in the field.
But you know what, that doesn’t mean he can’t be part of the core if he keeps this up.
Nick and AA will be a dynamic OF combo with speed and power as long as both can connect. both have a high swing and miss tendencies that are hard to overcome with. nonetheless, both can be a good bench OF if things didn’t work out as starting OF.
At the Williamsport doubleheader tonight the rumor was flying that this home stand is the last for Adam Haseley in a Crosscutters uniform. We will see. (I posted this a little earlier in the wrong place. This is the only active thread right now. Sorry)
Woohoo! Phillies win again. Playing .667 in their last three games. Seriously, it feels good when they win. It’s so much more fun!
Lots of good things: Velasquez 6 innings, one ER, low pitch count; perfect innings for Neshek and Herris; the 8th inning specialist was special.
How about the offense! Thirteen hits and next year’s 5th outfielder with 2 hits and two RBIs, Franco hits well again.
Can’t wait for the trade of the century! When Stanton gets to play half of his season at CBP, he’ll hit at least 30 long balls there.
Woohoo ! Giants win ! They beat the Indians 2 – 1 in 10 innings.
Phillies reverse magic number down to 65.
Too early the Phllies are playing better. Can you imagine a lineup of Miami with no Stanton, Yelich or Prado. Gordon too.
Couple of punches to Matt Klentak’s gut …
Yankees get their reliever and 3B-man in deal with White Sox.
Meanwhile, Peter Angelos has made his bullpen available for trade offers.
So, the market for Pat Neshek may have shrunk by one (Yankees) … while at the same time, the volume of available relievers has grown.
Maybe the Red Sox become a possible Neshek destination again. Neshek for Chavis at this point would be a good thing for the Phillies.
The Phillies didn’t have 2 bp pieces like White Sox did plus a rental 1st baseman with a vg history. I do think Neshek and Benoit will go . I was telling everyone that’s alot of sellers more everyday .
Curious if the Yankees were even serious about a ToJo/Neshek trade. They seem to have targeted former Yankee players.
At this point, MK just needs to unload for the best return & make room for the young guys.
Read earlier today that Doobie & Yelich career numbers aren’t that far off from each other. Doobie offers a higher WAR at a lower cap number.
Less than two weeks to go & no moves yet?
Baltimore just opened up there Bp to trades. NY Yanks pulled off a major trade.
I think one of the reason I disagree with minor league numbers, is people come on here with all kinds of stats , I like obp. others like war in minors or how hard you hit a ball is useless imo option. Last night was perfect example in my mind. Suarez pitched a great game. But when you look at the box score 5 hits given up were by two major league prospects on that team. Bichette and Guerrero guys who will someday play in majors. What stats tell you that? Velocity movement, control are the things I look at ,more than other charts, I think war, lwd and others are for majors league value. But I am wrong according to most on here all the time. but just voiceing my option
wow roccm that was totally random…
The best way to determine talent is to watch the talent play live. Always has been and always will be. Sabermetrics has it’s place but can never replace a good eye for talent. Too many people never see these kids in person and base their judgment solely on stats as if they were actuaries.
Then its me and you Nl Against the world. Cause we are the only two who believe that seeing a player is important Most base there option on saber only. Which has its place, but it cant be the whole picture. I Saw something the other day I think vi posted it about how hard someone in minors hit the ball. What is that to do with ability if he is hitting it off minor league pitchers, who will never make it. Its like saying he is killing the pitching machine at 90 miles a hour. useless minor league stat, to project his value in majors. just my option.
there should be a strike of balance between physical abilities and stats. that’s what i’ve been emphasizing in most of my arguments. for players with less than adequate abilities, they focus on stats that looks nice. for players with good numbers, people down play them because of lack of loud tools – and so on.
this is also the reason why i mentioned before that some stats are being misused as people just used the stats that supports what they believe.
most of the time, the stats follows the players physical abilities — so the key in using statistics is to identify the “outliers” and “trends” rather than using it in isolation.
KuKo…you, along with rocco, are Divergents…in the world of analytics they are the most dangerous. They do not believe solely in WAR…and need to be eradicated.
@romus – if you will know me, I’m a licensed finance guy by profession. we crunch numbers everyday so this is why i’m a little tough, but not necessarily divergent, when discussing numbers.
we don’t use numbers in isolation, but rather compile stats and group them into 3 buckets – #1 stats that are aligned and consistent with one another, #2 stats that cancel one another, and #3 stats that doesn’t make any sense. in formulating conclusion using stats, this really involves more elaborative approach and combined qualitative with quantitative factors.
anyway, i don’t intend to lecture, but i assure you that i believe that statistics are important in making smart decisions. sometimes, i’m just ticked off when stats are being misused since that what our interns do on a daily basis.
KuKo…got you….just pulling your chain.
hahaha….i will easily give up my finance job to be a scout in a heartbeat!!
i still believe in WAR, although I think it’s use should be correlated to its definition — and my definition of WAR is similar to fangraphs.
dam romus I only graduated Neumann. What the hell is those big words. Divergents???? Eradicated is what they did to hilter right?
is Divergent a word? i thought Romus wants us to be part of a movie rather than talking baseball. eradicated sounds scary, i totally ignore to answer that.
KuKo/rocco…..yes from the movies Divergent and Insurgent.
Count me in, too.
I look at the players I was impressed by since moving to Southwest Florida and watching the Threshers — Aaron Altherr, Rhys Hoskins, Edubray Romas, among them. All performed better than many expected at the time.
I saw C Randolph early this year when he was struggling and was impressed by his approach and how he struck the ball. Now he’s coming on.
I’l say the same for Herlis Rodriguez earlier this year, and Carlos Tocci last year.
So, yes, a fan like me can see the possibilities in players who the scouts or others dismiss or discount.
That doesn’t mean I don’t respect the scouts and other observers. As I say, I’m a fan, not an expert, but sometimes even a fan can see the talent and potential.
rocco…there are no perfect systems for projection. There are probabilities.
Come over to the dark side…..join the analytics and its leader, Sheldon.
Both Guerrero and Bichette had weak contact against Ranger . Hits were bloop hit and rolling single. Jim was your Eye witness you can get an idea what Ranger throws by reading his articles.
Wait tim you mean, you are talking about watching players? That is a different approach. I thought we only use numbers. hum watching a player, interesting ty tim
No you can other person’s first hand reports . I not a what’s his veto first Question type. I usually ask does his stuff move what’s he throw how’s his delivery. How’s his command & control.
Good for you tim, I Check velo. cause without it, you better have great offspeed stuff , pinpoint control, umps that give you the outside corner and you might be a 5 starter in this league.
rocco…last season Tim’s two pitchers that were his point of reference for low velo and exceptional command and location, were Cub’s Hendricks and Sox Porcello. This year they are struggling…..that seems to be one difference with the hi-velo guys….they seem to be more consistent from year to year…..at least until they lose their hi-velo or they blow out their UCL. Last year Dallas Keuchel struggled and this year he has turned it around and he doesn’t hit 90 on the radar that much..but then again he is a LHP and they are different..
It might be a good idea to have Joseph included in any Neshek deal. I don’t see how else you move TJ unless he’s an add on to a trade even if the return is minimal. Hoskins’ hair may begin to turn salt and pepper if they wait any longer before bringing him up.
It’s doubtful the Marlins deal happens but I wonder what the internal discussions sound like. Stanton could opt out after ’20, which might be fine if Trout is coming here. Or Stanton could be an injury waiting to recur and be a 10 year albatross. Gordon gives you options for an off season flip or maybe Kingery goes to 3b this coming instructional league. Yelich seems to be the most stable commodity. Tazawa would help keep the cost in prospects down a little with him, Stanton and Gordon being salary dumpage to a great extent. We’ll see…. But I would offer Odubel, Cesar, and any four prospects other than Sixto or Kingery, but I would be reluctantly willing to offer JPC in the end if the negotiations stalled.
.216 / .276/.371 June 1 st .230 / .286/ .404 now that’s Franco slash line with 14 HR 49 rbi’s. Not great but better . Herrera June 1 .247/.286/ .385 June1 st .262 / .302 / .418 now bigger jump. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hoskin000rhy&type=bgl&year=2017 here’s Rhys Hoskins splits by Month would you bring him up now. Rhys has to hit he doesn’t help the team anywhere else.
Rhys is hitting his first slump that I can recall since joining the organization. The concern for me isn’t the slump per se, the concern is whether other teams have found a hole in his swing that can be exploited. You’d need to watch the game tapes carefully to discover that (which I have not done), but, honestly, it’s starting to concern me a little.
And the funny thing is about the Stanton talk nobody answers the question as to why Stanton would waive his complete no trade to come to us today…
That’s true. Since he’s a California kid, let’s get the Dodgers involved in a 3 team deal.
I don’t know anything about Stanton but unless he absolutely has his heart set on California (like Randy Wolf once did), I’m sure he remembers well what a great place CBP can be when the team is winning, he must see this organization is not a cheap organization like his current team and must salivate every time he comes up at The Bank. We shouldn’t sell ourselves and Stanton short – he might like it here.
Stanton comes here so his pop flies to the outfielder go into the stands.
white sox putting themselves in a position where they can have as much payroll flexbility as the Phils to go after those big $ free agents in the next few years, and with higher upside prospects than the Phils have.
Yup and the fun begins for the south siders Moncada gets the call…
We have talked about how much better Crawford’s line has been of late and some people have walked back from the cliff that he is no longer a prospect. The above is the line comes with Gold Glove Caliber defense in CF. It is Odubel Herrera’s line since June 1st. I think it is easy to get lost in his historically awful May (30/1 K/BB), but Herrera is controllable at a reasonable price through 2023.
I’ll note that the above line is not what I expect from him going forward but I think .280/.340/.420 is not unreasonable
Yes, and if he does that with plus defense as he has before, he’s a 4 WAR player year after year, which is essentially what he was in 2015 and 2016. He’s frustrating beyond belief, but he fields well and can have dominant runs at the plate. He’s an enigma.
I would try and turn Herrera for one of the White Sox young guns. They are flush with front line pitching prospects so you should be able to nab one if not two of them.
Normally, I’m pro Odubel but the need for an ace is great for the Phillies. This is pretty much the only scenario I can see him getting traded.
On Herrera…even noticing announcers , ie Kruk and TMac are starting to make subtle innuendos about his overall makeup and bearing. Last night was the bat flip on the walk …to the wrong dugout, and “why didn’t he go over and get it’.
I guess it is comical in some ways.
I still cannot believe Neshek is still on the Phils. I have that bad feeling that Klentak will wait and wait and do nothing.
Nah chips are falling and Nesh will be gone by the end of the weekend is my prediction…
wondering if Neshek and Hellickson to Milwaukee for a couple guys including 3b prospect Lucas Erceg, since milwaukee has found their third baseman in Travis Shaw, could work.
Nestak. Hellickson. Obbie. Nick Williams, for santana
Altherr out 3 to 4 weeks now.
No need to hold back, Cozens should be called up.
It’s absurd that Klentak hasn’t moved players out by now. A lineup with Hoskins & Cozens this year would inject new life into the team while giving a wake up call to others like Doobie & Franco.
I have to agree here. I don’t think the Phillies want Nava to play that much. He would get really exposed. We’ll see what happens Friday.
I guess Nava wants to play more because he’s 4 for 4 today…
Hmm, Philly.com thinks Nava and Perkins will platoon LF.
Trade the hot dog!!
Surprised to see how close Yelich and Herrera are currently running.
2017 ——89 gms- 1.4bWAR
Career—-395 gms- 9.6bWAR
2017——-89 gms- 1.5bWAR
As per Stolnis, Doobie also has a better fWAR 9.3 vs 8.6 since became the Phil’s CF.
but if you looked at the career slash line, Yelich is better. Yelich is about 3 weeks older than Doobie but his career lines are better, got a Golden Glove at the age of 23 yon and Silver Slugger at the age of 25. The Phillies have better options in CF than Herrera which I cannot say about Yelich.
I don’t think anybody can sell a Doobie-Yelich swap using that wonderful WAR data even if you throw in the additional $14.35M savings in Doobie’s contract.
Ergo, regardless of WAR says, a reasonable person can still determine who’s the more valuable player based on actual physical skills.
KuKo….my point is, that there is not a whole lot of difference between the two CFers….except what is above the shoulders.
You saw one big difference today The passed ball Yelich scores, Doobie doesn’t, it in the head the difference
Doobie is at a lower cap hit too. Unless you think Yelich has higher upside, I don’t think a trade is warranted.
Sure, Doobie makes mistakes, but he missed AAA & learned a new position his first year in the majors.
Trading for Yelich & absorbing the extra salary dump isn’t worth the price of milk.
Trade out the rentals & call up what you have. Another trade worth making will surface.
I like Yelich since he was called up – I’ll take him over Doobie straight up. If he’s available i will offer Moniak or Hasely (plus Doobie or some pieces) for him
Can’t offer Haseley until after the season.
20 hit day for the Phils. Nicky still looking good and Knappy is not too shabby. I can see Rupp as a victim of the purge if he is not being traded for cash.
How about our old friend Luis Garcia? Throwing in high 90s, discovered a split and re-establishing his SL for an current ERA of 2.31.
Break up the Philies!! They’re playing at a .750 clip. Well, it’s only four games….but still. And wait till Stanton comes over in the big trade.
I am becoming increasingly concerned that FO needs to be more aggressive in dealing the guys with their bags packed. The teams with the big needs seemed to have acted quickly and aggressively —( Nats and Yanks). I don’t doubt that Yankees weighed Chisox option vs. Phillies (TJ + Neshak) but Chisox had 2 stud bull pen pitchers + Frazier which is simply much more. Now what ? Bosox have traded away most of the solid prospects. ?????? Anyone along with me on this ?
Many are on this same issue, on here..
Mr Klentak meanders too much for me.
As Brody tells Jerry….’Just shoot the damn thing so I can get it out on the street!’
Matt…just do it.
For all the ballyhoo about Klentek being young blood with fresh ideas. He just seems like a young version of the traditional old baseball mentality guy who lacks outside the box thinking that this ownership group always instills.
For years the Phillies never got involved with busting the international bonus pools and played the good soldier. We have been and continue to see the teams that did reap the benefits from either guys arriving at the majors or being trade chips for big talent ( Red Sox got Sale cuz of Moncada)
how were the Phillies rewarded for not bending the rules? All teams now have same size pools and can not bust them. The Phillies will likely be the worst team in baseball this year and next July have no more bonus pool money than the World Series champion this year.
Even Klentek’s old school baseball moves dont pan out. Multiple veterans on short deals acquired with the intent to get prospects and we see most hurt or ineffective.
RU yes & no the Buyers market is small the buyers market is big.
The sellers market is big .
My point exactly. You can’t wait – pull the trigger. Even if you get nobody for some of these “retreads.” Meanwhile, the clock ticks, players brought up (ala Nick Williams) play well – we win ; other lousy teams trade the meaningful players they have (the A’s), and voila, they lose and you end up with the 5th or 6th choice in the draft ????? And then we rinse and rewash again ?
I agree I think it’s stupid to vote for the team to lose . I mean you get all the young up then you want them to lose ????? No thank you.
Interesting…the Angels could still make a run at a wild card spot. Looks like they could use a catcher, first baseman, second baseman, an outfielder and a pitcher or two. Maybe not all major leaguers. 6 or 7 for 1 deal? Just throwing it out there.
Giants beat the Indians again.
Phillies reverse magic number now down to 65.
Phillies play the Giants for a 4 game set soon . Phillies sweep I can feel it, White Sox really tanking Cincy , Oakland mght lose 15 in a row. Phillies are really playing better ball. Pitching now in the top 15 in runs allowed watch out.
Another tidbit from Williamsport. Kyle Young, who is having one heckuva season is listed as being 6′-10″. That was last year’s height measurement when he was only 18. He has grown (as was the reported case with Mickey Moniak). I have not talked to him firsthand, but others who have say he has told them he was measured this year at 7′-0″. It IS awesome to watch him pitch. If he puts on some bulk we can call him the Bigger Unit. lol BTW, the rumor concerning Haseley has not come true yet. Maybe three consecutive hitless games have something to do with that.
just in case anyone like me had forgotten the new comp rules for signing free agents like i had:
If a team signs a qualifying-offer free agent:
• Team over luxury-tax threshold: Loses second- and fifth-highest Draft picks and $1 million in international pool money.
• Team from 15 smallest markets that receives revenue sharing money: Loses third-highest Draft pick.
• Team that is neither of the above: Loses second-highest pick and $500,000 in international pool money.
If a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents:
• Team over luxury-tax threshold: Loses second- and fifth-highest Draft picks and $1 million in international pool money for first signing; loses third- and sixth-highest Draft picks and $1 million in international pool money for second signing.
• Team from 15 smallest markets? that receives revenue sharing money: Loses third-highest Draft pick for first signing; loses fourth-highest Draft pick for second signing.
• Team that is neither of the above: Loses second-highest pick and $500,000 in international pool money for first signing; loses third-highest Draft pick and $500,000 in international pool money for second signing.
That’s good stuff Raef. Let me ask you does the team who made the qualifying offer pick up those picks and those funds or is it just case of those resources go poof and no one gets them?
i should have given credit to the John Mayo piece that came from. posting the link below. but the team who loses the FA gets a different pick it appears:
If a team loses qualifying-offer free agent who signs with another team for $50 million or more:
• Team over luxury-tax threshold: Receives Draft pick at end of fourth round.
• Team from 15 smallest markets that receives revenue sharing money: Receives Draft pick at end of first round.
• Team that is neither of the above: Receives Draft pick at end of second round.
If a team loses qualifying-offer free agent who signs with another team for less than $50 million:
• Team over luxury-tax threshold: Receives Draft pick at end of fourth round.
• Team under luxury-tax threshold: Receives Draft pick at end of second round.
David Phelps goes to the M’s. One less place Neshek can go. This will definitely be a test for M.Klentek. Hope he passes.
I live not too far from the line that separates Red Sox fans from Yankees fans so most of the baseball news is about those two teams.
They are making such a big deal about the NY/CWS trade. It’s like Todd Frazier is going to be the new Yankees savior.
The guy is barely batting above .200. With a few more o-4 games, the guy will be on the interstate. Talk about wishful thinking!
The real benefit for the Yankees from the CWS deal are the relievers, not Frazier…
Matt Klentak is running out of teams and positions to trade to. I am very dissapointed in Matt Klentak’s performance as GM so far. At least his predecessors (Wade, Gillick and Amaro) made some deadline deals.
Frazier is the rental they wanted the market for relievers is Hugh , Marlins, Baltimore, San Diego ,SF,the Mets , BP are for sale. The biggest demand might be SP and and OF.
not sure of the OF demand based on the return for JD Martinez.
definitely seem to be running out of trade partners. KC might actually work for Hell, Neshek and ToJo, but they don’t want to give up much.Something like 18 y/o OF Seuly Matias, playing in rookie ball, and lefty reliever Richard Lovely, a 10th round pick last year already up to AA, might be better than nothing.
Another country heard from. John Town (That Ball’s Outta Here) lists his up-to-the-minute Phillies mid season top 10 prospects: http://thatballsouttahere.com/2017/07/20/phillies-2017-midseason-prospect/
10 Franklyn Kilome
9 Jorge Alfaro
8 Dylan Cozens
7 JP Crawford
6 Adam Haseley
5 Rhys Hoskins
4 Scott Kingery
3 Sixto Sanchez
2 Nick Williams
1 Mickey Moniak
I think Moniak is having an ok season for a 19 year old in full season ball but he’s not the Phillies #1 prospect mid-season by a long stretch..
Jayson Stark with Mike Missanelli on Stanton, Yelich, Neshek, Cole Hamels, and much more: http://975thefanatic.com/2017/07/18/jayson-stark-joins-mike-missanelli-20/
Fister pounded again today. ERA is almost at 8. Sox are coming after Hellickson. I can feel it. Of course, Phils eat the rest of his salary and get the 3B prospect because Boston is hesitant to go over the salary luxury tax threshold. Hey, I can dream, right.
if Klentank cannot move anybody then he deserved to be the one traded if not outrighted in the FO. if Klentak is hesitant to pull the trigger, might as well DFA the old dudes and let the prospects play.
If the Phillies don’t move Hellickson, I think the Phils should extend the qualifying offer to him….again. Hey, it’s only going to be 18 mill this coming year. Jump on it, Klentek!
ciada…..can the Phillies offer it two years in a row?
Ro – I’m only kidding. I guess I just have too much time on my hands. Klentek did not trade him last year when he had the chance because he sensed that someone would sign him and the Phils would get the extra pick.
When Hellickson accepted the 17 mill, everyone was surprised, especially Matt K. who takes the blame for it. I like Hellickson a lot but not for that much cash. In 20/20 hindsight, it was a bad move.
Oh yes……Mr Klentak better got going. So far many of his decisive moves are not going as planned with the results intended.
Can you just imagine what the critics will say if the Astros and, Giles as their closer is a an integral part of it, go on and win the World Series!
I guess in fairness….a majprity of all of the current MLB-ready prospects are not of his making, and who are close to fruition for MLB service….so all of these non-waiver trades that are suppose to happen in the next 10 days, are for 3/4 year out prospects.
i think Klentak will get a pass with the Giles trade regardless of what happens to all the players involved. if there’s one criticism that will be thrown his way is – why amend the original trade which basically exchanged Jon Arauz and Fisher for Appel?!? Klentak is not showing a very good ability of extending his hand.
No one expected Hellickson to take the QO. Boris was out there pushing a longer term deal.
The QO seemed like a reasonable risk & he did well enough last year to almost be traded to the Marlins.
Either way, who else internally would have absorbed his spot in the rotation? Bucholz got hurt & others flamed out.
” I like Hellickson a lot …”
Why? On any list of most overpaid pitchers, Hellickson name figures prominently. Plus, I think he lacks da strong ‘compete’ gene. Explains in part why he re-signed in Philly. Not a gamer.
Romus, I don’t think we are being unfair to Klentak. He needs to make moves, not just to get some lottery tickets, but to create an opportunity for guys to move up. We have 2 LHV RPS deserving of a shot, we have Hoskins, Cozens and Quinn. It is time to move Neshek and Benoit and Hellickson and TJ and Rupp. And as much as Daniel Nava has played well, he could be a terrific bench bat for a contender. That doesn’t even take into consideration any major moves. I want to see an aggressive, not passive, GM.
And, BTW, Braves are trading Jaime Garcia to the Twins. I would say he and Hellickson are similar in value. I know Garcia is a lefty. But, no Phils deals. Is Matt K in the country?
matt13…..I feel your pain.
if he cannot move a significant number of players, maybe 4 or 5 who are expected to be moved in rumor talks up until now in the next 10 days…… then I am not sure he is John Middleton’s type of guy.
I guess all of these players will be released with no compensation in return.
No market for Rupp, ToJo, Cesar, Nava, or Hellickson. Only room to keep Cesar.
Neshek has the highest value. Beniot will likely be released.
Matt K……..Kendrick is ok, just hit a dinger, do something……trade him.
……..and a single, really he’s ok to trade. Hammy is ok, get him out of the game and trade him, Matt!
With Garcia now off the board, more of my 20/20 hindsight. Would’ve been nice had Matt K. gotten him instead of Buchholtz. Close to the same salaries and trades made to get them weren’t too far apart in what was given up. Really difficult to accept that trade then and now.
Really though Neshek will go so will Benoit. Hellickson maybe gone he may stay. The rest Kendrick ,Nava, can be traded later . MK doesn’t have the Buyers ,he could be more aggressive but that might turn the Phillies into buyers .
Sam McWilliams, who was traded to ARI to get Hellickson, is having a good year. The 21 yo has a 2.23 ERA with a .921 WHIP in A ball. I point this out in hopes that the Phils can get at least a player of Sam’s skill back in any trade coming up.
One thing that should help Klentak is that he has more time than just the end of July to make some moves. Most of they guys they want to trade will clear waivers with the exception of Neshak, Joseph, and Rupp.
That doesn’t excuse a failure to get things moving as July 31st approaches but I think they will still be able to move some pieces after that date..
it’s been tossed around that Jay Groome is one of the prospects that BOS can deal to fill holes in 3B and SP. With NYY making strong moves to keep pace, I can see BOS making a deal with of one its remaining top prospects except Devers. SFG’ Nunez and PIT’s Cole are top targets – but can Klentak break out of his shell and engage BOS with Franco-Hellboy-Neshek for a package of Groome-Chavis and some throw ins? Moreland is on a 1-yr deal so BOS can move Franco to 1B if they decide to promote Devers next year.
wow, where was that tossed around?
i cant see Boston giving up Groome in a deal like that though (too free agent to be pitchers, and they can get a first baseman off the street who can put up Franco’s numbers there in future years)
I just looked, in reference to trying to obtain Jay Groome, if there are any restrictions on teams being able to trade newly drafted players from the Rule iV draft within a year (or two years) of when they were signed. I didn’t see anything. Does anyone know of such a restriction?
The Trea Turner Rule changed the old policy of having to wait a year after a player signs his first professional contract…..now I think it is the day after the World Series ends when that can happen….as for Jay Groome that date was Nov 2016.
I have been impressed, so far, by Nick Williams. I like his speed and his defensive ability and his aggressive approach. I love his opposite field power and he has hustled every play so far. Granted, a very SSS, but he deserves recognition. So does Dusty Wathan, who I think did a very good job handling Williams. I wonder if the Hoskins slump can be somewhat attributed to his deserving to have been promoted. I think players, sometimes, can take the edge off, and that edge returns when they get up to the big leagues. Sometimes, guys adjust in a positive way to the challenge of facing better opposition. This was a long winded way of saying that I am more underwhelmed by Klentak not making space for guys than I am over the actual return he may get. Neshek was in the All Star game, came out the next time and struck out the side. That should have been his last appearance as a Phillie. Kendricks needs to come off the DL and be traded by the end of the weekend. Sorry for rambling!
i’m keeping my fingers crossed with Nicky. i’m also happy about his good start in the MLB after being dismissed by the national outlets. Nick and Altherr can form a dynamic OF with good tools and position flexibility.
I mentioned earlier this week (in one of the box score threads) that Jeremy Eierman is a guy who doesn’t get a lot of attention, but is a dark horse for 1-1 in 2018. Eierman has played mostly SS at Missouri St, but may move to 3B next season after Jake Burger’s departure. For me, Eierman can be another Nick Senzel with a lot more pop. SSS, but he’s showing well with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League.
Senzel (soph season) … 200 AB, .325/.399/.495, 12 doubles, 5 triples, 4 HR, 23 BB, 36 K
Eierman (soph season) … 243 AB, .313/.431/.675, 15 double, 2 triples, 23 HR, 41, BB, 61 K
Last Summer, Brady Singer was the top pitcher in the Cape Cod League. This summer, RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson U) is probably the top pitching prospect, and could be another dark horse for 1-1 in 2018.
BTW … Singer is not playing on the Cape this summer.
Hink…a Stetson U guy?
How low have we stooped?
Thats like taking a guy out of Florida Gulf Coast U…or something like that….with a name like Sale!
Don’t knock FGCU, Romus! My Son, Daughter and Daughter in law are all grads. They teach in Cape Coral. On a positive note, there seems to be a number of candidates for 1.1. That is a good thing. Won’t it be fun when the Phils are in the middle of all the action again?
matt13……sorry dude…..just pulling Hinkie’s chain. Sale was a hard sell to the WSox faithful back seven years ago when they drafted him from a little school like that…how did that turn out for them! 🙂
They’re my homies. I’m in the Cape as we speak — or type in this case.
Tom Eshelman is on the 7 day DL. Maybe it was reported and I missed it. If one of the minor league teams has an overflow of players they will put somebody on the inactive list not the DL.
Nola tweaks mechanics adds velo:
This is a general discussion, but since you mentioned it, the Nola game last night was the best pitched Phillies game I’ve seen since the 4 aces were at their peak. He flashed ace stuff last night – it was a superbly and masterfully pitched game which was well called by Andy Knapp who slowly is evolving into a heck of a player. They should NOT trade Andy Knapp because I think there’s a great chance that he turns into a significantly better major league player than Alfaro.
Romus, I know you were joking. Thosesmallschools often produce gems!
Sorry if this has already been discussed but Drew Anderson seems to be doing well recently. Does anyone know what his velocity is when he pitches?
will see him tonight in reading, weather permitting vs former tiger #1 beau burrows.
Seems the Cubs are still interested in BP & catching help. I’m sure they would prefer a catcher with playoff experience, but is there a possibility to package Neshek & Rupp here?
ToJo, Hellickson, Benoit, & Nava seem like a hold until the waiver deadline.
With roughly 10 weeks left in the season, Nola could hit 15 wins. Reminds me of Hamels in 2007, really making it look easy out there.
The combination of movement, command and velocity are beyond impressive. He pitched like an ace last night with 4 above-average to plus pitches he was putting wherever he wanted whenever he wanted. It was an elite pitching performance.
His off-season training will dictate if he can sustain this success & make the next jump as an ace.
Too early to tell, still learning to not strain his arm, & needs to build lower body strength to prevent injury moving forward.
Now if VV can get it straight, we have a decent front end rotation next year.
Some interesting & far fetched possibilities for Hellickson.
Indians: Back in 1st place & waiting for healing SP to return
Rays: Depending on whether they move Archer or Cobb (like the A’s with Alonso)
Royals: If still in the playoff hunt
Yankees: Injuries & Inconsistency
Nationals: Better than what they have on the back end.
Read here: https://calltothepen.com/2017/07/20/phillies-jeremy-hellickson-can-help-these-contenders/
A successful non-waiver deadline for me would be moving Neshek, Rupp, & Hellickson. That would allow Alfaro to come up & open a spot in the SR.
I don’t want Alfaro to come up yet. People have very unrealistic expectations about how long it takes a player to develop in the major leagues. Most major league successes are not instant starts like Kris Bryant – it often takes years. Andy Knapp is doing a LOT right to secure a place for himself. Drawing walks, making some contact, decent OPS and very good game calling. I want him to get a chance before Alfaro comes up, unless Alfaro is just the back-up. Alfaro hasn’t earned anything yet.
Alfaro is out of options after this year. Two months in the minors won’t change him. With your logic, leave him exposed rule 5 or trade him.
I rather call him up & progress him in the majors. Knapp is an not a great player.
The bar for offense for catchers is not all that high….I mean how many Buster Poseys/Medinas are out there.
Knapp has a chance to become a plus offensive catcher
His hit tool has been better than average all thru his career so far.
Not sure why you want to give up on him so fast.
Granted Alfaro could have the power tool and once he gets more comfortable behind the plate he could be the real deal.
But why not keep them both thru 2018…at least with Knapp he can fill in at first base.
I’m not giving up on Knapp, just making room for Alfaro.
Both should be kept for the longer term & Alfaro does have the higher upside, though Knapp has done well with SSS.
I did propose time sharing at 1B so Knapp can get more AB’s, but ToJo has been productive.
……….and at this point in time
Alfaro is not as good as Knapp.
Absolutely – and it’s not close.
Knapp has upside and if we trade him for nothing, we could really regret it. I believe in his hit tool, I believe in his plate discipline and now I believe in his ability to call a game. His power, I think, will come once he gets more comfortable. He’s a good player and could end up being a very good player.
Except for one little thing – that’s not my logic.
I know he can’t be protected and must either be promoted or traded this off season. However, right now, he’s not ready, his hitting has been abysmal, especially since they learned how to pitch to him. He’s not a competent major league hitter at this point and could use all of the time in the minors he could get.
Knapp is highly, highly underrated. Guys generally don’t come into the big leagues as full blown stars. Knapp has excellent plate judgment, his defense is now pretty good and once he gets comfortable, I expect his power to increase.
I believe there is a very good chance he ends up being a better major league player than Alfaro. So, for now, he needs to play. Promoting Alfaro now would stunt both players’ development. Next year is next year. Knapp needs to play and develop now. And Alfaro still needs minor league development time, because right now, he’s a pretty crappy AAA hitter and would therefore likely be a bad major league hitter right now.
Hellickson making those ideas more farfetched than ever with this outing. I’m stumped when I ask myself the question, “Why would a team want him?”
Time to trade Nola.
Phillies loss + Giants win = Phillies reverse magic # at 63.
The Giants play Pitt, LA,Oak, Zona, Cubs,Wash, MIA, then a 4 game set with the Phillies . Now the play Hou, Alt, Angels, Col,Alt, NYM, SD, Then the 4 game set with SF. Now how much you wanna bet the PHILLIES are with in a Game Of SF by the time they go to SF. Bty CWS are At 38 wins which ties them with SF for wins. Cincy at 40. Hinkie 3 wks I would gave you 2 months with SF schedule lol noway.
Remember the name … Austin Franklin.
Phillies scouting Tampa’s system for a possible Neshek trade. I would try to slip ToJo into that deal somehow since there isn’t a real market for him alone.
Glad to hear Altherr may be back as early as Tuesday.
Depends if the Rays decide to offer Morrison a contract extension in the off-season.
There are many AL teams that could swap out there DH’s & 1B creating more potential trade partners for ToJo.
Right away, you can see Houston, Yankees, Twins, & Orioles as trade partners for DH in the off-season. Check the performance this year:
Then at 1B, Oakland & Texas would seem to have a spot:
Morrison won’t be given a QO at $18M & ToJo is a controllable asset for a few more years. It would be the smarter play for the Rays for next year.
Question is, do you wait until the off-season or make the trade now?
I would like to see the Phillies pin the Rays against the Rangers to optimize a trade. They could easily take on Mike Napoli & waive him.
Phillies will ask for Tampa’s 2016 1st round pick, Josh Lowe (3B-man). Rays will most likely say, “He’s off limits”. The Phillies will then demand 2016 3rd round pick, Austin Franklin (19 YO RHP). Franklin pitched for Hudson Valley (NYPL) last night. IMO, Franklin (6′ 3″, 215 lbs) is the guy the Phillies and Rays will agree to as the return for a Pat Neshek trade. This would be a very nice return.
So many scenarios that are live right now:
Brewers interested in Ian Kinsler. Clearing Kinsler could open a Cesar trade to the Tigers, an off-season rumor.
Could there be a possible package of Neshek & Cesar to the Brewers?
A’s: Trading Alonso to the Sox opens a slot for ToJo there. But I would think Nunes from SF to Boston could be more realistic instead of Alonso playing 3B there.
Yu Darvish & Sonny Gray will probably be moved first, creating an open market for Hellickson with Gerritt Cole now being pulled back. Twins or Nats?
There could be some dominoes to fall this week to help provide clearer path for MK where:
All could be on the move.
I see Rupp & Benoit options for the non-waiver deadline trade. A team could be looking for extra bullpen pitching & catching leading into a playoff run.
Romus’ man, Cody Asche, raking for the White Sox….AAA team. I thought he’d be a star with the Phils. Liked him a lot. Maybe, with these results, he’s on his way back to the show.
Yeah…maybe he will make a return for MLB success.
He, along with Dom Brown really faked me out….based on their ‘coming up the minor league ladder metrics’. Only proves thee is no fial safe projections based solely on slash lines and peripherals.
Now with that in mind…check it out:
Cozens and Judge:…AA/AAA metrics as of July 22nd, 2017
Cozens: Age 22/23
Judge: Age 23/24
…there I go again , projecting Cozens as the next poor man’s Judge. 🙂
Update Devers has been called up by Boston . Kenshaw and Strasburg are hurt and maybe out for a while.the Phillies are 4 games out the basement with CWS and SF at 38 wins.
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