2016 Sleeper and Break Out Prospects

Time to make your selections official for sleeper and break out prospects.  Enter your guesses in the comments section and I will gather them into a Google Sheet for easy viewing.  Not to gloat, but I was one of two people who correctly identified Andrew Knapp as a player who would have a break out season.  I also garnered bragging rights among friends on another Phillies’ site when I correctly divined that the Phillies would win 63 games.  So, if you want some advice from this swelled head, I suggest that you not consider any of the following – Manny Chavez, Jesse Biddle, Brian Martelo, Andrew Amaro, David Whitehead, Adam Morgan, Colin Kleven, Willans Astudillo, Sam McWilliams, Jonathan Arauz, Aaron Nola, Tyler Goeddel, Daniel Stumpf, or Jonathan Pettibone.

Last year, I read through previous years’ articles to come up with definitions for Sleeper and Break Out performances.  From the archives, I found these from James in 2011 and 2012.

In 2011, “… talk about your favorite sleeper prospects heading into 2011. Note, Brody Colvin, Jon Singleton and the like are not sleepers. A sleeper prospect is a guy that people don’t talk about a lot, or do not consider in the upper tier of our prospects. Think more obscure, under the radar guys who you think might break out.”

In 2012, “… solicit your picks for 2012 sleepers. To make it clear, Trevor May and Jesse Biddle aren’t sleepers, they are well established upper echelon prospects. When I say “sleeper”, I define it as a guy who is not a consensus top 10-15 prospect, preferably someone who is even further off the radar, who you feel will break out in 2012 and establish/re-establish his prospect status. For instance, Mike Stutes was a breakout guy this year, because he wasn’t on any industry Top 30 lists this past winter, and was on very few Reader Top 30 ballots. Those are the guys I’m thinking of.” (editor’s note: the use of the words break out above is unfortunate and probably helps fuel confusion.)

In 2014 (from Matt), “… Everyone has that one player they believe is just going to explode on to the scene this year. Whether it is the growth of a single tool, the ability to stay healthy, or just to survive another level, a prospect’s stock can change wildly. In general most people think of a sleeper as a player who is completely off the radar, and a breakout prospect as a player who is going to have his stock take a large leap forward …”  (editor’s note: now we have a distinction between the two terms.)

We talk about almost everybody here with little distinction between top tier prospects and off-the-radar non-prospects . So, I extrapolated from the above to state that for our discussion –

  • A sleeper prospect is a player from outside the top 15-20 (we are deeper this year, after all) who you expect to have a bigger year than we should expect for a player at his level, both in the organization and as a prospect.
  • A break out prospect is a player who is expected to perform well but who does so with a much better year than anticipated and comes from the upper tier of prospects, say from within the top 15-20.

These are still arbitrary definitions. I’m certainly not going to nitpick over your selections. But a move from 47 to 22 (if 47 were one of the older guys still on the poll), wouldn’t really qualify as a break out year because 22 is still pretty far down the prospect ladder. This would be a sleeper to me. Now if 47 were one of the teenagers, that might be easier to classify as a break out year.

So, let’s start listing your picks here. I’ll consolidate, track, and report back periodically. If you listed them in other threads, repost them here. I’m not going through older posts to gather them.  See the consolidated list here.

 

84 thoughts on “2016 Sleeper and Break Out Prospects

  1. Happy Easter to all , I have 2 break out 2 Sleepers Kingery, Austin Davis, Felix Paulino , Herlis Rodriguez.

  2. Sleepers: Rivero (RP), Falter (SP), Edgar Cabral (Position).
    Breakout: Rivero (RP), Eshelman (SP), Brown and Kingery (Position)

    I can see Alexis Rivero to dominate A+ and AA in 2016 and will be a better prospect that Ramos. Falter will dominate GCL and SS but the Phils not promote him to LWD. Cabral will make us forget about Grullon.

    Both Kingery and Eshelman will prove that their tools (hit and command) are legit and will dominate their leagues. Brown will show some power and will play in REA at some point in 2016.

      1. Man those guys aren’t to exciting , one probably won’t make it lively , the other due for a bullpen ,pivetta and the other if he can not regress on velocity has 4/5 all over home ,
        I understand you dig pitching , and I hope I’m wrong about those three and they all end up big time major league contributors but I don’t see it happening

  3. Tyler Viza is my sleeper. Last ten games last year record 1-7 era 2.28 8 walks, 68 innings 60 hits. 44 strikeouts not bad numbers. . I never saw him pitch but no matter how bad he was going he stayed in rotation. I just feel they think he has a good chance to be a big leaguer. only a feeling. .

    1. And then there’s his 2014 season, when the Phillies sent him as a 19-year old kid in his first full season of pro ball, first full season out of high school to Lakewood. 3-17 record in 24 starts, but the kid gutted through it. Improved his peripherals in 2015. Kid’s got heart.

    2. I like that pick. I saw him in Lakewood on 2014 and I thought he was a non-prospect. Didn’t break 90. Hitters were killing every pitch. He looked as bad as his record. But last year he looked like a different pitcher. Lots of swings and misses and he seemed to add some velo. Still not elite stuff last year but good enough for Lakewood. Hopefully he continues the trends. Would be awesome to have him turn into a top pitching prospect out of nowhere.

    3. i hope Tyler Viza (and Venn Biter) will have a big 2016. Their names are too cool not to pass A minors. Denton Keys has cool name too (and a nice signing bonus) but got axed. The depth in the farm system will make it hard for them to break the Top 50.

  4. Hoping that the 2nd round choice of ’15 (Kingery) does well…so we can concentrate more on pitching as Klendak says. It would seem, doesn’t it, that Alvarez has “complete control” on their choices? Doesn’t anybody else help with those decisions, or is he really the only chooser? That is a ton of responsibility on one person….There must be other voices…? So for 2 1/4 months we can and will speculate….Kingery: pls put up worthy numbers so you can ease my mkind about a #2 pick for a bunch of money…hoping it nIS a good investment for the team’s 2nd baseman. His first 1/2 season was disappointing. Go Kingery!

  5. A pitcher and position player for each:

    Breakouts- Jorge Alfaro and Nick Pavetta

    Sleepers: Ranger Suarez and Austin Bossart.

  6. Now that the guy I’ve listed the past two seasons isn’t in the organization anymore (Willians Astudillo; who I still believe is a sleeper), I will go with….

    Sleeper: Luis Ancarnacion (also like Jose Pujols)
    Breakout: Dylan Cozens

  7. Sleeper: Kingery, Bossart, Tyler Gilbert if he gets into a rotation

    Breakout: Hoskins, Cozens

      1. that’s good. unless Sev can improve his stuff, the Phils cannot afford to have a bunch of Gonzalez in their farm.

  8. Tough for me because I want to limit myself to players I’ve seen in person, so that eliminates a lot of guys who probably deserve mention. With that caveat, here goes:

    Break outs: Roman Quinn and Rhys Hoskins

    Sleepers: Aaron Brown and Brock Stassi.

  9. Seems strange to list Randolph as my “break-out” candidate, but I expect him to be a consensus Top 50 prospect by season’s end.

    Sleeper: Lively. More like a bounce-back candidate.

  10. I think a lot of our top 15 guys are set to have good years – Kingery, Jorge, Quinn, C, even Cozens. But if I had to pick one guy, it would be Hoskins. I think he is going to absolutely mash in Reading and then do well in AAA and will be in majors this year.

    Sleeper pick is Pivetta. Has real swing and miss stuff. If his command improves, he can rise quickly.

  11. Sleeper Jhalyn Ortiz if he plays enough or maybe Lively as he is overshadowed by top arms
    Breakout Alfaro now that he is healthy, he may just have some crazy power

  12. Breakout Pitcher — Tirado
    Breakout Hitter — Kingery
    Sleeper Hitter — Ortiz (if the $4 million man can be a sleeper, if not Daniel Brito)
    Sleeper Pitcher — Falter

    1. I have pretty much the same list as you. I’ve seen a couple guys select Brito, but not Gamboa. Why the love for Brito?

      1. Guessing it’s because of Brito’s very impressive K/BB rate in the DSL, coupled with him being “extra” off-the-radar because he didn’t even play stateside last year.

        Along the same lines, Lenin Rodriguez is another guy who plays a premium position (C) and seemingly had an advanced approach for his level last year. But Rodolfo Duran was the young catcher they sent to the GCL, where he struggled offensively, like Gamboa. It’ll be interesting to see what all of those guys do this season.

  13. Breakout hitter: Canelo
    Breakout pitcher: Medina
    Sleeper hitter: Jesmuel Valentin
    Sleeper pitcher: Arano

    1. i like Lucas Williams too and he can easy be a Top 30 next year. But i choose Edgar Cabral as my sleeper since he is way off the radar especially with 3 catching prospects ahead of him that’s getting a lot of attention.

    1. Is this in addition to/instead of your earlier Kingery? I’m guessing now that the earlier Kingery comment was just a comment and not a selection.

      1. Yeah…I put my hopes on Kingery…because he could provide good defense and OBA-ability at/near the top of the lineup…and he should,it says here, get ba\ck on track in ’16. But for a giant breakout, I see Hoskins who has been hammering the ball (I hear) in ST and did well in the winter leagues. I believe in Kingery…but never believed that Hoskins would progress to this poiint doing so well…when I have expected it from Lingery. I’m also taking a flyer on Lively….who looked good to me from his pfre-:Phillies record…seems to have a “variety” of breaking pitches and a decent FB. He needs much more command….and a biit more velo on his FB…maybe adding a 2-seamer.too. It would be just great if all those three fit into those 3 places on the field. Add in Nick Williams/the 2 catchers/and 2-3 starters…and we’re OFF & running. This news from the Left Coast.

  14. Breakout: Eflin (missed a lot of bats in ST game I saw – he’s not far off); Quinn (electric), Cozens (I’m becoming a believer; didn’t include Hoskins because I think he had his breakout last year as did Williams and Knapp) and Kilome

    Sleeper: Lively (has really dipped in our group ratings, but he’s much better than people think), Walding (I can’t believe I just typed that either but he looked great in ST), Eshelman, and Mora.

  15. I’m a little late on this…I’ll go Cabral sleeper/Cozens breakout.

    (was going to pick Arauz for sleeper)

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