Reader Top 30 #13

2015 Reader Top 30

Pitcher Matt Imhof is selected as the 12th prospect in the organization with 77 of 299 votes (26%).  Dylan Cozens finished second with 55 votes.

On to #13, no additions to the poll.

66 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #13”

    1. I voted Tocci. Cozens would be next for me, but he may take this round. Really any of several guys could go here, including also Knapp and Sev Gonzalez.

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      1. I’ve read other people saying Sandberg, but he has to do more and reach a higher level, before I put him this high.

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  6. Tocci. I’m not sure why some people are choosing Altherr instead at this point. Tocci will probably open next year in Clearwater at age 19. Altherr will open the year in Reading or LHV at age 24.

    Altherr’s wOBA in Reading last year: .309
    Tocci’s wOBA in Lakewood last year: .305

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    2. Altherr because besides having more power he is the best OF Defender per Baseball America in the system and you can throw out last years numbers since he didn’t even swing the bat till April. He did have a broken bone in his wrist.

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      1. I can see giving him a break somewhat because of his injury, but not throwing out his numbers entirely. He was on the field by mid-April and in Reading a week later, so he still got almost 500 PAs. And he may be the best CF right now but Tocci isn’t far behind and he’s much younger; he should end up as good or better defensively.

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      1. None of those other guys hit all that well last year, except for Knapp in Lakewood after he was demoted. I was only comparing Tocci to Altherr though because they play the same position. Altherr didn’t hit much better than Tocci last year even though he was older for Reading than Tocci was for Lakewood.

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  7. Tocci again.

    Anyone else notice that Mecias is still on the list? And drawing votes?

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  8. I would like to say thank you for the 6 thumbs up I got on my Knapp comment last poll…that being said i went with Cozens…j/k…Knapp here again!

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  9. Finally, after one week steady, I can stop voting for Imhof.

    Now its Cozens for me. Surprised he is so low, especially since he’s been showing legs as a base stealer.

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    2. Cozens is a large man who will not likely steal bases at any reasonable rate against the better batteries at higher levels. He’s not been clocked quickly from home to first, and getting a good read on a bad battery can take you a long way in the low minors.

      Adam Dunn stole 20 bases twice in the minors, and tried to carry it over in the majors, but was 19/28 in his first full season and then tailed off quickly, likely because he got thicker and the catchers were catching him about a third of the time. Cozens is currently a smaller body than Dunn, but as he adds mass as he ages, it’s going to similarly slow him down. Don’t count on value there. It’s nice to see he can move a little, but to hope for a big guy like that to steal with any regularity is hoping against history.

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      1. I don’t have any illusions about his being some type of base stealer in the majors – he won’t be. The real question is whether he can remain lean and athletic enough to be mobile, like a Jayson Werth or Jason Heyward or whether he’s going to get big and cumbersome, like Dunn or Michael Morse. If he can hold his own in the outfield, it’s going to increase his value a lot. Having seen Cozens in person, he seems like much more the Heyward/Werth type – he’s lean and athletic, like a power forward.

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        1. Heyward and Werth are both guys who are capable of stealing 20 bases. Every scouting report of Cozens that I’ve seen suggests he falls into the Dunn/Morse camp. Defensively his best-case scenario seems like a slightly below average RF.

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    1. I don’t see how people vote for Altherr over Odubel. Odubel is a year younger and had much more success at the plate at the same level of the minors. One has to either believe that Altherr’s glove is massively superior to Odubel’s or that Altherr’s offensive performance was a fluke due to injury.

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      1. Was Herrera ever ranked in the Ranger’s top twenty?
        If not, hard to believe based on his past stats, though his past ISO probably could have been a detrimental factor.

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        1. I may be mistaken, but a lot of people could be looking at his current winter league power metrics and trying to project them out for 2015 and beyond. A renaissance transition more or less.

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  11. Where do we see Severino Gonzalez? I haven’t seen him and know he has had a injury but should be 100%. Any thoughts on him and his future?

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    1. I think Severino Gonzalez should be getting more love as well. Keep in mind he pitched last year in an extreme hitters park and did so without the use of his best pitch- which the Phillies made him shelve for most of the year to work on his change up.
      His velocity in AA was decent as well and I think he should be in the same category as Windle and Lively- ie backend SP with a chance to be #3’s if everything breaks perfectly and a floor of a 7th inning reliever.

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  12. This is something that always bothers me, but why is it that the Phillies don’t draft two tool prospects who’s two tools are hitting and power? Sounds like a naive question but they seem to have a real disdain for the hit tool and for the life of me I don’t understand it.

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    2. Historically, they’ve had a disdain for the hit tool and even more disdain for plate discipline. It’s been frustrating but I hope things are going to change a bit.

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      1. I sort of count plate discipline as part of the hit tool. That said, I couldn’t agree more. Hit and Power and by far the most important two tools for a player, how it is that the team pretty much ignores one of those blows my mind. To me, the other 3 are icing on the cake whereas the hit and power tools ARE THE CAKE!

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  13. Altherr above Cozens for me. A fan of both but positional value makes Altherr a higher prospect on my list. Of course I want Cozens to have a huge breakout year this year in CLW. Blow into that top 10.

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  14. I was going to vote Cozens here – he had a fair full-season debut, but his K and BB Rates both went the wrong direction and he lost 40 OBP points. Not great. Had he hit 16 HR like he did and managed to keep his OBP above .330 I think this would be a good place for him, as his scouting is not unanimously negative, but he’s starting to show some red flags at the plate and we know the body and positional concerns are real.

    As such, I’m going to vote for Kilome instead. Could be voting for him a while, but scouts love his ceiling.

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    1. The thing with Cozens is that the physical profile is so tantalizing that I can see why fans are getting behind him. I didn’t get a chance to go to Lakewood this year but he’s on my list of must-see players when I head to ST.

      Kilome intrigues me but I think we need to see some uptick in velocity. It sounds like he has the frame to really put on some weight and become something though.

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      1. The fangraphs scouting report said his velocity went 87-90 early last year to 90-94 during instructs. That’s really encouraging. It seems like he could settle in the 92-95 range when he fills out. I voted for Cozens here but I have Kilome next, with Arano and Pinto behind him.

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      2. The problem is that Cozens’ physical profile suggests a 1B long term. He’ll have to hit a ton and clean up the issues Brad mentions above.

        On the plus side he’s still in the early days of focusing on baseball full time and hit well away from LWD last year (.295/.347/.481) though with nearly equal BB and K rates.

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        1. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he had to be a 1B when he crosses over age 30. Of course, by then we will have gotten our full value from Cozens. The first 6 years are what count. Really, the most surplus value comes from the first 4 seasons. If he can give us 5 good seasons in RF, that’s a big plus, then he can be traded or a FA.

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          1. Really, the Phillies do great with players and then fall into enormous difficulty when they extend them big, shiny new contracts: Blanton, Lidge, Howard, I think we’ll regret Ruiz and that we have been very lucky with Utley, previously Daulton and Dykstra.

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  15. I like 2 polished college pitchers. Leibrandt and Leiter around here. I feel both have good shot of reaching majors. Voted Leibrandt here

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    1. I’m a big Brandon Leibrandt fan and a part of that is the hope he can travel along roughly the same the path his Dad took. If you forced me to name one player in the system people aren’t talking about too much who could end up being a serious contributor at the major league level, the guy I would pick is Leibrandt.

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      1. Funny too how both of them have fathers who were former big league pitchers. You don’t see that everyday.

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      2. Leibrandt interests me but he probably needs to find some more velocity along the way since he throws 86-90mph. He reminds me a little of Hoby Milner because the profiles are similar and they each excelled in the low minors. If there’s a reason to be more confidant in Leibrandt though, it’s that he’s listed at 6’4″ 190 lbs. That doesn’t mean that he will add mass and velocity, but it suggests that there’s a chance.

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        1. His Dad pitched really well never throwing hard – that, as much as anything, is the source of my hope along with his size and the nice strikeout and hits per inning numbers.

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      1. I’m higher than that on Leibrandt. To list a 22-year old as #48 on the PHillies farm is to basically label him ‘not a prospect at all’, which as I read the write-up is damn close to what Matt is saying.

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        1. To be honest, I think Leibrandt would fall into the 18-22 range. And if his velo does tick up as Matt alluded it has and he can maintain it thru the season, then he could be a pleasant surprise.

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        2. I have him #35, but I don’t agree that Matt is saying he’s a non-prospect. He’s been very complimentary of the system’s depth so I think his placement is more a reflection of that, in addition to a questionable fastball.

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          1. This is more it. Leibrandt is ahead of guys like Keys, Zgardowski, Taylor, McWilliams. Araujo, Alezones, Pointer, and others who I quite like as prospects. It is just hard to have a guy without enough fastball ahead of guys who I think have major league skills now. If Leibrandt can sit 88-90 touching 91-92 I will elevate him accordingly. He is not a non-prospect, more a victim of what I think is a deep system.

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        3. Both of these guys are not their fathers and never will be. They 86-90 at best and that will not get it done with the secondary assortment they have. They are just some more organizational fillers that have names but no substance.

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  16. I have Cozens here, with some combination of Herrera, Sandberg, Knapp, and Elniery Garcia to follow. It will be interesting to see what Cozens can do in a more hitter-friendly park this year against more advanced competition.

    I may have dropped Tocci a bit too far (currently my #20), but I’m still in a wait-and-see approach with his body profile. If he can fill out that rail of a frame over time, the results will come. If not, pitchers won’t be afraid to attack him a-la Ben Revere, limiting the ability to buttress his hit tool with a half-decent BB%. The defense does help his floor, however.

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