53 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 # 12

    1. The reports I’ve read say he throws about 90-92 with good movement. That is not a good fastball, that is an average fastball. He racked up a lot of strikeouts in college due to what is apparently a lot of deception in his delivery. That package sounds iffy to me–you can’t fool major league hitters, or at least fool them for long. Vance Worely’s incredible (and unsustainable) third-strike-looking numbers come to mind.

      1. His delivery is bumgartner like in how he hides the ball for so long and they are around the same size , so I’m gonna cross my fingers and hope for best

        1. Well my fingers are crossed too, but Bumgarner hit 97 in high school, could dial it up to 94-95 in the minors, was a #10 pick in the draft and a #25 prospect in his first year in pro ball. I want to believe, I really do, but unless the scouts missed something big on Imhof or he develops more velocity or better breaking stuff, he’s not likely to develop into a Bumgarner.

          http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/prospect-flashback-madison-bumgarner/

          1. I’m pretty sure Imhof is almost totally overhand with his delivery, while Bumgarner comes more from the side. But I don’t think Anon was really trying to compare them except to say that they both hide the ball well. Imhof doesn’t have the secondary stuff that Bumgarner does.

      2. 90-92 fastball with good movement sounds like a major league fastball. No one is saying he is a can’t miss prospect but to have a fastball that can play in the majors is a nice start.

        1. His Slider was plus at times too, he still has time to put on a few pounds so his fb will get better.

      1. I also have Tocci and Knapp over Windle. Most of the scouting reports I’ve read said Windle is probably going to be a reliever, which brings his ceiling way down for me.

        Tocci, even though he’s far away, has a good chance to be at least a backup since he has such good defense in CF, and has a higher ceiling. Knapp has a high ceiling since he’s a catcher with good bat potential.

        1. Jim Callis rates Windle as the highest of the trio of Eflin-Lively-Windle.
          He has the highest ceiling but can see him being an 8thinning reliever.

          1. We have to come up with a nickname for that trio. I propose: “The Maybe Aces”

      2. Because Windle went 9th😊

        But seriously I haven’t seen any reports that are absolutely convinced he’s a starter long term. Either way we’re at the point in the rankings where things are quite close

  1. Glad to see Joesph being ranked this year where I thought he should have been last year… Imhof

  2. Curious as to why Jia Tromp hasn’t been mentioned at all. I thought he had a promising season, and he’s pushed ahead of Cozens in my mind.

      1. I believe he led the NY-Penn League (not a hitters’ league) in HRs this year, and he hit one less HR than Cozens on the year in about 150 fewer ABs.

        1. Yeah but most of his success came in the Penn league , right ? I like Tromp aswell but was told he was old for his league but 8 months older than cozens doesn’t seem that bad , also did cozens hit around the same amount in Penn league

            1. He struck out in 27% of his ABs last year. I have him on my list but not until near the end.

              Also, when people were discussing the best names in the system yesterday, no one brought him up. And that’s a shame.

  3. Imhof here. Then (for the moment), I have Cozens, Kilome, Knapp, Altherr, Tocci, Arano, Zach Green and Aaron Brown rounding out the top 20. I had Imhof 10, Mecias 11, Cozens 12, and Windle 13 (though he’s already off the board).

    The fact that Carlos Tocci is at 17 for me, says a lot about the depth of the system right now. He has 2 2014 picks and 3 recent trade pieces ahead of him on my list, otherwise he’d likely still be in the discussion for the top 10, even after a less-than-motivating season/round of scouting. That there’s a guy who’s seemingly a lock to be a big league caliber defender in CF this low on the board is encouraging. I haven’t done enough looking at other teams systems lately, but this seems like a system that should be in the mid-teens in any given year. We’ll see where evaluators put them versus the real-world systems of 2015.

    1. Good analysis. While the system isn’t top tier, the depth is really growing. Having more lottery tickets means there’s a better chance you hit on one.

    2. I voted Tocci here, basically because of all the nice things about him you mentioned. I’m not thrilled with Imhof (see above), not sure what to make of Knapp due to the injury (he is 23 and has only played a handful of games at Clearwater), not sure I’m fully buying the Kilome hype given how little experience he’s had in stateside pro ball (11 games), and though it’s a close call, I still think it’s more likely that Tocci puts on some muscle at age 19-20 than it is that Cozens learns the strike zone well enough to unleash that awesome power in games and stays in good enough shape to stick at a corner outfield position. Finally, I can’t see ranking Altherr over a player who is 4 years younger than him, who plays the same position better defensively, given Altherr’s own hitting struggles.

      I will say that the first thing I’m going to do when I get to Clearwater this year for spring training is head over to the minor league complex to see what Tocci’s build looks like. He really is a stick figure, but it seems like towards the end of last year there were some signs of strengthening (ie, a couple home runs). Shane Victorino hit all of 12 home runs through his Age 21 season in the minors, so it can definitely happen that young speedsters develop power as they get older. This is what Shane Victorino looked like when he was 21 at AA Jacksonville:

      And I know his detractors get exasperated but it’s worth reiterating: when Shane Victorino was 18 he played 55 games in the rookie league. Last year, at 18, Tocci played an entire season at Single A. He is still so incredibly young.

        1. I think either the week of March 9 or March 16, plans are in flux at the moment so I haven’t gotten tickets yet, but I suspect there will be fewer sellouts than in years past! I think they usually start playing games at the minor league complex toward the middle of March, if memory serves.

      1. Whoa, the link to that old picture of Victorino actually posted directly to the page. Cool! Anyway, I guess I should add before someone else points it out that I’m not comparing their physiques, they’re built differently and comparing physiques of 18 year old boys is also kind of creepy. I’m just saying that bodies change, some guys get stronger, some guys learn how to hit for power. It’s not unreasonable to think that given Tocci’s polish in other areas he might be able to become a good hitter, especially given all the time he has to work on that one specific aspect.

      2. I agree with you to an extent on Tocci, and don’t buy a lot of the negative arguments.

        The biggest concern for me is his K rate. It could improve, but IMO it isn’t something you can just expect him to grow out of, and it isn’t merely a function of age/level. That is, I don’t see it as a matter of him being over-matched by older pitchers (unlike some of his other hitting metrics), but more an accurate indication of his (mediocre at this point) contact skills.

        Contrary to some critics, it’s not horrible, but it’s not really what you want to see from a player with his profile. Unless he improves it substantially, really everything else needs to break right for him to be even a decent regular. And that’s a lot to ask.

        Victorino is indeed an interesting comp – but his K rate was consistently much better in the minors. Sure, Tocci could add some muscle, as did Victorino and many others. But that won’t help his K rate.

      3. If it is body-type that you want to comp Tocci with, IMO, I would look at players like Doug Glanville /Garry Maddox/ and maybe Alex Rios, all rail-thin in their minor league days and more or less stayed that way thru their early MLB careers.
        My point, I do not think he has the body-type to bulk up, other then perhaps 10/12 lbs of upper torso muscle.

    3. I actually have been digging into a lot of other systems lately and am miffed that teams seemingly ahead of us in their MLB club are also ahead of us in their MiLB clubs.

      The Dodgers don’t have the same depth as us possibly but they have Seager, Pederson, Urias and Holmes. The Pirates have Glasnow Taillon Bell and Meadows.

      We all know what the Red Sox have. The Nationals have Giolito Cole and Taylor.

      Did you know we currently don’t have a position player OPSing over 900 (min 100 PA’s) and only 1 player OPSing over .800 which is Dugan at .819.

      You should see all the guys that are currently sub .300 OBP and I actually set the bar higher in the minors in my evaluation. It’s really ugly only Crawford .384, Dugan .368 Astudillo .364 Oberto .361 Herrera .354 and Cumana .353 are over the .350 mark.

      I may have missed some but I don’t really look at org filler. We have a ways to go.

      1. I’m pretty sure that’s right – he sits in the mid to high 90s. After that it’s Luis Garcia and then MAG. MAG is a bit of an unknown, but he really does have a lot of ability.

        1. If MAG hadn’t exhausted his rookie eligibility with his late season call-up last year, where would he rank on this list? Would have been an interesting debate. I’d say maybe someplace around 15-20. His floor looks to be a middle reliever, but there’s still some potential starter/high-leverage reliever upside there. The package is not unlike Windle’s, for instance.

  4. I’m a bit curious why Tocci has dropped so much. This isn’t about where he “should” be, but about perceptions. I can think of two reasons, but neither (individually or together) seems sufficient:

    (1) Better system – true to an extent, but doesn’t come close to explaining such a large drop.
    (2) Poor 2014 – not really true – though maybe there was a perception that it was true? Or maybe, while he was better in 2014, he wasn’t enough better in some people’s minds?

    I had him lower last year than the consensus, but still top 10. Haven’t done a complete ranking this season, so not sure where I’d put him. Lower, I guess, because of #1, but when the dust settles I expect this year I’ll have him higher than the board consensus.

    1. I think some of it is due to high expectations with him. I feel like he’s been around a long time and hasn’t progressed as fast as some would like. Also two straight years in Lakewood didn’t really help him from a perception standpoint.

    2. I can’t think of a more polarizing player since I’ve been here. I don’t consider myself a Tocci detractor even tho I have never believed he was a top 10 prospect. For me he has always been 15-25 and I’m excited to watch him grow in the system and one day be a true top 10 prospect.

      It’s funny because I mentioned Gamboa yesterday and Allentown said “what has he done to deserve being on the list”

      The argument that he is so young for his level and so frail even in a system devoid of offensive talent can only elevate him so far. If you can hit you can hit strength has very little to do with it. I’ve seen a lot slight guys that generate crazy bat speed and I’ve seen a lot of strong thick guys that can’t generate any bat speed.

      So for now he is what he is a prospect with over 1100 PA’s and a .285 OBP!

    3. I voted for Tocci here. He’s 11th on my board. I have him a little lower than I did last year mostly because of reason #1- a stronger system. I also hoped that he would improve either his BB or K numbers while repeating Lakewood, but neither of those happened, which I found a little disheartening. It was good to see him improve his power though.

    4. I dropped him 4 or 5 spots in my top 10 because I rate at least 3 of the pitchers they acquired better prospects. Also, Grullon past him this year. Its not because I think Tocci’s performance was a disappointment.

      Last year I had Tocci about 6th in the system. This year I have Crawford, Nola, Franco, Eflin, Quinn, Grullon, Lively, Imhof, and Windle ahead of him.

  5. Time for Zach Green to get some pub, just too much power and really looks good in a uni at the corner positions

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