PhuturePhillies Reader Top 30 #14

Dylan Cozens is the reader’s choice as the organization’s 13th ranked prospect.  He scored a comfortable victory over runnerup Carlos Tocci.  Cozens received 89 of 284 votes (31%), winning by 26 votes over Tocci.  The selections so far are listed below.

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Aaron Nola
  3. Maikel Franco
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Zach Eflin
  6. Ben Lively
  7. Jesse Biddle
  8. Kelly Dugan
  9. Tom Windle
  10. Yoel Mecias
  11. Deivi Grullon
  12. Matt Imhof
  13. Dylan Cozens

Some observations so far. 

  • Last year’s top 13 included 3 pitchers (#2 Jesse Biddle, #4 Miguel Gonzalez, and #7 Ethan Martin).  This year, you have selected 7 pitchers among the top 13 (#2 Aaron Nola, #5 Zach Eflin, #6 Ben Lively, #7 Jesse Biddle, #9 Tom Windle, #10 Yoel Mecias, and #12 Matt Imhoff). 
  • Four of this year’s top prospects weren’t even in the organization last year (#2 Aaron Nola via the draft; and #5 Zach Eflin, #6 Ben Lively, and #9 Tom Windle through off season trades). 
  • Last year’s top 3 still remain in this year’s top 7. 
  • The biggest jump by a prospect is the jump from #25 to #10 by Yoel Mecias.  The next biggest jump was by Deivi Grullon from #17 to #11.  Mecias’ position last year was undoubtedly influenced by people’s concerns after his Tommy John surgery.  But for Grullon to jump 6 spots as newer talent forces others down the prospect ladder is a tribute to his improvement and greater expectations.

The #14 poll follows with no additional names.

57 thoughts on “PhuturePhillies Reader Top 30 #14

  1. If you’re a betting man, do you put money on Cozens or Tocci to get 500 AB’s in the Bigs? Or do you skip that bet and buy a hoagie?

    1. 500 ABs in the majors? I’d say right now the odds are against Tocci even getting 500 ABs at AA & above.

      I hope I’m wrong, but the dude has an OPS of less than .600 in three seasons in the very low minors.

      Yeah, I know he’s young; yeah, I know some love his potential. But he has a long and winding road ahead of him to even reach Reading, let alone The Show!

      1. There is almost no way Tocci isn’t promoted through to AAA as his career progresses, IMO. You don’t give up on serious centerfielders.

        1. Based on his age, production and level, I’d say he has about a 50 percent chance of reaching AA.

          Plenty of young “high ceiling” prospects have never advanced beyond High-A ball. Low-A to High-A is the biggest jump, in my opinion.

          No one is saying to give up on him, but if he’s a 22 year-old with a .650 OPS at Clearwater, I doubt he’ll reach Reading.

          1. Look, I’m as skeptical about Tocci as the next guy and have gone so far as to write posts indicating how concerned I am about his strength and his ultra-thin frame. That said, I’d be quite surprised if Tocci doesn’t make it to AAA, and truly shocked if he doesn’t make it to Reading. In looking at these prospects, age and context combined with skill set means so much. It’s a pretty big deal for a guy to be in full-season low A ball as an 18 year old let alone a 17 year old. But his OPS went up 100 points over a year and even if he doesn’t fill out a ton, he’s probably going to get a lot stronger just by maturing. And the guy is just pure silk in center field, which won’t earn him a job as a big league regular by itself (or even a roster spot), but it’s going to make him potentially valuable and give him a lot of second chances. Trust me, he’s going to make it to AA – but where and how far he goes after that is subject to legitimate debate.

            1. Galvis didn’t even post an OPS over .600 until his second full season at Reading. Now CF isn’t SS but it shows that defense can be a carrying tool.

      2. I am not a huge fan of Tocci (as most know) but I would be shocked if he didn’t make it to AA. The bigger issue IMO is that his slow physical development means that he will be forced to be put on the 40-man roster or cut well before I think his body will be ready. So he may get a cup of coffee, but I doubt it is with the Phillies.

      1. I wouldn’t. Cozens is a serious prospect and OPS’d .717 as a 20-yr old at Lakewood in 2014. Do you think Tocci OPS’s .700 or better in 2015 assuming he’s in Lakewood? Unless he reports to camp 10-15 lbs heavier I don’t think there’s any chance he OPS’s over .700 in 2015

        1. Cozens is also a RF now and a probable 1B in the future. He’ll have to hit a lot to make the majors which he really hasn’t shown the ability to do…yet.

          Tocci hasn’t either obviously but is a plus defender at a premium defensive position. He won’t have to hit much to be a 4th or 5th OF.

          .700 OPS for Tocci is a stretch this year and shouldn’t be expected. But that’s OK; it’s not about this year. It’s about 4-5 years from now

  2. I’m not able to enter word press w/o a log in, for some reason, but to show that sometimes there are some things consistent in this world, I would vote to Tocci (if I could)

  3. Went with Aaron Altherr as he is closest to helping the Phillies as he will probably be at Allentown. This is a big year for him as if he can hit better along with his fielding he may be up in September and be productive.

  4. Andrew Knapp again. I believe the hit tool is so valuable for catchers and he is the best catcher in the org at hitting. Hope he can advanced to AAA this year.

    1. Sam I like Knapp a lot. He won’t have to a ton to be a major leaguer assuming he can be an average catcher. For me that’s the real question

    1. I voted for Tocci again, then I think Altherr and Kilome. I love the upside on Kilome and all these wisps and rumors we keep hearing, but until I get a half season or so of stateside baseball it’s hard to know what to think. One things for sure: he won’s be under the radar next year so we’ll be hearing more detail about him. Until then I’m comfortable putting him at #15 or so with a bullet. Ive got lots and lots of time to change my opinion.

      Speaking of which, I really do hope Tocci wins this one so we can stop hearing people complain about how he’s hyped and overrated. If he’s the ranked as the #14 prospect in a mediocre system, I can’t see how anyone will be able to make the claim that he’s been overrated. Maybe then we can get back to appreciating the raw, flawed but very promising player that he is, instead of maligning him for failing to meet unrealistic expectations at age 18.

      1. Well done on Tocci ACA. And to think I was just about to post my thoughts as to why I’m not quite ready to rank him yet.

        Went Kilome here. I suspect we see him open with Lakewood. He could very well be a consensus top 7 at this time next year.

        I’m pretty certain I’m going with Grullon at no. 15. And there’s still some interesting names for up there as far as I’m concerned. Tocci my leading candidate for 16.

        1. Crawford
        2. Franco
        3. Nola
        4. Quinn
        5. Eflin
        6. Cozens
        7. Lively
        8. Biddle
        9. Imhof
        10.Dugan
        11.Windle
        12.Mecias
        13.Altherr
        14.Kilome

      2. Yeah some people seem to be weirdly against Tocci, almost obsessively so. In a system that lacks high ceiling guys you would think more people would get behind the kid’s potential.

        Probably the weirdest thing I’ve seen in the years I’ve been coming to this site

        1. I think you are misinterpreting the negative debate points in Tocci. No ONE is against him. Everyone wants him to succeed. Just some are not buying into him as a prospect. Personally, I have no problem with him being ranked 15 in an average system. I just was against him being a top 7 pick. I think BA rated him #5 in our system. That seemed crazy to me.

      3. Although it seems like he has been around forever already most seem to forget how young he really is. While I’ve been mildly disappointed that he hasn’t shown more I keep reminding myself that he’s 18 and played two seasons of full season professional baseball, most guys at his age just finished their senior year. With the speed he is supposed to have I do wish he would show a bit more on the base paths, you don’t have to be fully physically mature to steal a base.

        1. In the next 6 months we will know if Tocci’s bat can play up at high A.
          If he has to repeat CLW in 2016, though he will still be young for the level to begin the season at his 20-age season, the Phillies will need to make a decision on whether or not to protect him for the 2016 Rule 5, since he signed in 2011.

            1. Agree.
              This season is critical for him.
              Though if left unprotected in 2016, there is a pretty decent possibility another MLB team could grab him based on his defense and potential due to his youthfulness. But he will need to be carried on their active roster.
              I do hope he breaks-out with the bat this season and gets the opp for a Reading promo in 2016.

            2. It’s more critical for the Phillies than it is for Tocci; they’re the ones that have to make the decision. I’m confident that he’ll show enough to deserve a spot though.

            3. Ordinarily you would think a 19-year old’s season would not be critical, but after 1100PAs already and just about a .600 OPS and if it is more of the same this season, then a promo to Reading for 2016 is not what I assume the Phillies would do, but rather keep him another season to start at High-A to build confidence, then a move up to Reading mid-season..
              Now, here is where it gets tricky. The 40 usually carries 6-7 OFers. And in 2016 Tocci will then be competing with an eligible Roman Quinn for a 40-spot, and I am assuming Quinn has just completed his LHV season at triple AAA.
              Of course so many other things can occur between now and then with their current OF situation.

    1. Bellman…yes you did, nothing gets by you.
      JimmyP must have had a late night on the town in Clearwater.

    2. Well, I’ll be a … I don’t know why he shows here. I deleted his name from all pre-written polls last night before I closed out poll #13. He is not in the poll #14 when I go back to edit him out. Must be one of those app “features” they don’t advertise. Fortunately, he’s not showing up on my results page.

      1. And now Cozens is gone after saving and embedding the poll a second time. A poll where he is still visible in my preview window although he has been deleted. Reminds me of the days when we would have to find all the unadvertised “features” in any Microsoft .0 release. It became our policy to not purchase until the .1 came out.

  5. I went Herrera because he is actually hitting the ball at some level of baseball. I am certainly not writing off Tocci as he is so young that he has plenty of time to improver. But, I have to see him hit first. That is the hardest tool to get, and if he does not hit he becomes Altherr, who I still don’t rate that highly due to his lack of hitting. I think I am going Aaron Brown next only because I see him as a potential break out guy.

  6. Herrera, Kilome, and Ogando are clearly ahead of Tocci right now, and I don’t hate Tocci. However, Tocci doesn’t project to have much positive value in the majors beyond whatever you can get from his defense. Defense first CFs are, if not a dime-a-dozen, then at worst a dollar-a-dozen. They don’t add that much value to a big-league team. You’ve got to get at least a solid 700-720 OPS out of your CF even if he plays good defense. So, to me, Tocci is very likely to at least advance to the majors based on his defense and contact skills (high floor) but very unlikely to ever post a +700 OPS (low ceiling). I can’t rate high-floor-low-ceiling prospects very high.

  7. I went Tocci again. He repeated Lakewood, but at only age 18, and he added 110 OPS points, while doubling his ISO. That’s progress. An OPS of .621 for an 18-year old CF in Lakewood is actually quite good.

    Strangely, it is noted in this post that the biggest gainer up the list from last year was Grullon, with the note that it was perhaps due to improvement. But… Grullon made the normal GCL to NYP league and dropped 140 OPS points. He also is age 18, so rather strange disconnect in voting for Tocci and Grullon.

  8. I threw in a vote for Aaron brown but I’d be fine with Altherr too. One question Jim, why is Walding on this list? He’s not even in my top 60 any longer.

    1. He received write in votes on more than 1 poll and he was in the reader top 30 last season. As good a reason to add him as any other. Better than me just adding my favorites, since I’m not voting.

      1. Although some of the write-ins are pretty funny. I’m going to be careful about adding any more write-ins. When I start adding players again they will come from among any e-mail requests I haven’t used yet and kids I saw in Clearwater like Denton Keys, Tyler Viza, Colton Murray, Miguel Nunez, Colin Kleven, Mark Leiter, Jiandido Tromp, Edubray Ramos, Carlos Indriago, Ethan Stewart, David Whitehead, and Brian Pointer (for Brad).

  9. You have a kid in Obdubel Herrera who is hitting about .370 in a winter ball league that is comparable to AA or AAA, how is he not voted higher. Also, if you are talking proximity to MLB, he is already a MLB player as there is no chance we return him to the Rangers.

    Show some love

    1. Well anon…we are all hoping Herrera is not returned to the Rangers. Brewers stashed a guy last year using combination of the DL and early season roster activation of 90 days . If Herrera is anything that this winter he looks like, the Phillies could do the same.

  10. My question about Dubie is why was he not valued enough by his organization to be protected? I get the whole numbers game explanation but isn’t that more for players that are ranked much lower like in the 30-40 range? I just don’t see how an organiation would let a top 15 prospect go for nothing.

    1. My understanding is that the Rangers just had several prospects at 2B that they liked better and didn’t view him as an OF (probably because he never showed any power until this fall). They might not have had room on the 40 man either, or at least had others they preferred to protect. It happens.

      1. It was legal for them to trade him, if he was viewed as valuable. We may have lucked into a gem, but he has not been highly rated in the past. Coming into 2014, BA did not have him ranked in Texas’ top 30 — in fact, he was the second-ranked of the HM they listed for 2B depth. None of the pre-Rule-5-draft previews I read had him tagged as one of the top guys teams would want to nab. Yes, he is hitting well in winter ball. Hopefully the Phillies scouts determined that he is at least a good defensive OF. There appears legit room for doubt as to how good he actually is. We are in the clutch-for-straws nadir of the Phillies organization this winter. I think rating Odubel this high would be more desperate fantasy than reality. Most Rule 5 guys aren’t kept. Given the current state of the Phillies OF, Odubel may well be kept, but that doesn’t make him a budding star.

        1. Well said. I think that he’s likely just riding a hot streak. He could be legit but could also be a flash in the pan.

    2. Rough Odor and Profar, along with Elvis pushed him off the stage.
      I do think the Rangers were hoping he would pass thru the draft.
      They ended up selected Delino Deshields and list him now at 2nd

      1. Yeah, that’s an interesting point: they obviously valued the chance to grab DD Jr. more highly than the risk of losing Herrera. Pretty clear he didn’t just slip through the cracks, they didn’t like him enough to protect him

  11. I am hoping that the Phils just got a little lucky with Herrera. He is certainly hitting the ball very well. Does anyone know how he is adjusting to CF? I think that there is no chance that we send him back to the Rangers, just off his Winter League performance, and the fact that the Phils may be the worst Major League team in baseball.

  12. I’ll take Cozens over tocci Cozens first full season was last yr.Tocci has 2 full yrs Cozens is also hitting in winter league. I hope both are good and make the phillies

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