Reader Top 30 #8

2015 Reader Top 30

Kelly Dugan is the #7 prospect in the organization.  As expected, votes were scattered among many players.  Dugan received only 78 of the 360 votes cast (21.67%).  Yoel Mecias finished second with 41 votes (11.39%).  Twenty-six players received votes.  Ten received 12 or more.  Ben Lively who joined the organization during this poll received 5 write-in votes.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see his total rise dramatically this poll.  Should stay interesting.

Andrew Anderson, Cody Forsythe, Tommy Joseph, and Ben Lively  have been added to poll #8.

41 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #8”

  1. I’m going to stick with the higher ceiling and vote Mecias, even though Lively will probably win it.

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      1. The number of votes for Lively is odd. Yes, he has the K-rate, but all the outside analyses I’ve read of the guys we brought in through trades rank Windle higher than Lively, and Windle has very few votes. I rank Mecias ahead of both Lively and Windle, so I voted Mecias again.

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        1. I think there’s a bit of a “shiny new toy” factor with Lively. I do have him over Windle though because there’s less risk and what sounds to me like a similar ceiling, even if Windle’s is a little higher.

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    3. Just a quick suggestion: How about also putting up who has been the previously selections on the post as well.

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  2. Mecias here. Also, wouldn’t it make sense to leave Lively and anyone else added after voting began out until the rankings are set? What if the board’s sentiments are that he is deserving of a higher ranking? (Not saying that’s the case, but who knows what the next trade will bring?)

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    1. I think Lively will probably go here or next where he should go… But if a hamels trade were made, it may make sense to complete the top 30 without those players, and then have a poll for each of the new prospects to see where they would fit. Then, adjust the numbers accordingly.

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  4. Lively’s 2014 slash line in AA .333/.529/.863. Dugan: .383/.435/.818. SSS. Oh wait, I’m being told Lively is *pitcher*.

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  5. I put Lively on my top 30 as #6 but I have Mecias as #5 so I had to vote for Yoel. It looks like Mecias is going to be the bridesmaid once again.

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  6. Gave the slight edge to Lively here over Mecias with proximity being the difference. I agree Mecias may have the higher upside but I’m always fearful of pitchers who have to have TJ surgery so young.

    I like the way the top 8 has gone thus far!

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    1. I have 6 pitchers in my top 10 (including Lively). 5 of them weren’t even with the team last year at this time. Only Mecias was with the Phils last January. If Hamels is traded, I might have as few as 3 players who were with the team last year — including position players. This could be a total revamp of the Phillies minor league system.

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      1. That’s kind of the point and whats needed. A total stocking of the Minor league system and hopefully turns the team around in the next couple years.

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  8. Jim, thanks for running the polls. You can probably stop adding new names for a while – there seem to be a number of folks who get zero votes and the list is getting extremely long.

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  9. any chance of alphabetizing the names?

    Also, if Lively wins here does it make sense for him to go up against Dugan in a revote since he was acquired after Dugan vote (doesnt matter that much I guess)

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    1. The players are listed alphabetically in two groups. The first group contains the original MLB top 20 (now 14) we started with – Altherr thru Windle. Lively was added to this group. The second group contains all additions to the list (other than Lively) starting with Anderson, Astudillo, Brown, …

      Tonight’s poll will settle the placement of Lively, assuming he maintains his lead over Mecias.

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  10. I went Odubel because I like the hit tool and the proximity. I worry that Lively’s ceiling is a bit low and Mecias is a bit of an unknown to me. They’re coming next, though, followed by Windle, Imhof and Altherr or Grullon. I’m not a Tocci guy…

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  11. I’m having fun playing with the rotations. Let me know your thoughts:

    LHV: Nola, Rodriquez, Sev Gonzalez, Loewen, and Morgan on the DL initially replaced by M. Gonzalez, with Pettibone on the DL also
    Reading: Eflin, Windle, Lively, Biddle, with Milner or Leiter. I could see Milner possibly moved to the pen at LHV. What a destination Reading will be with this rotation plus Quinn and Crawford.
    CWater: Imhof, Mecias, Liebrandt, Nunez, and Anderson. Hanson?
    Lwood: Arano, Pinto, Gueller, Whitehead, and Viza
    WPort: Kilome, Garcia, Keys, Arteaga, and Sanchez or Morales – obviously there could be different guys here from the 2015 draft too

    Thoughts: – Will they be more aggressive with Kilome, Garcia and/or Keys and move them to LWood to see how they do? If so, whose spots do they take? Will they start Biddle at LHV despite his poor season? Will they start Nola at LHV? Will MAG be a starter?

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    1. I expect them to move Arano up to Clearwater, by either putting Nunez into the bullpen, or by making sure either Wandy or MAG makes the big league team, and starting Biddle at LHV, and Liebrandt at Reading.

      You’re right, it is fun to think about with all these new toys.

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    2. I also think that Arano will be in Clearwater. I would have Nunez starting in Reading over Milner, Leiter and Kleven but he might end up in the bullpen depending on what they do with Nola and Biddle. I think Chris Oliver might factor into one of the rotations too.

      I love the depth. Especially since this year the ML team will be hard to watch. There’s not one pitcher in that group that I won’t be interested to check out in box scores.

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      1. I read something a while back that was titled 10 best relief pitcher in 5 years or something like that. Oliver was listed as one of them. thought that was interesting. I guess I’d sign up for a top reliever over chance at back end starter.

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        1. I would take that from him as well. Oliver seems to have the pure stuff to be a #3, if not a bit better than that, but the chances he gets there are probably low and the Phillies were really working on his delivery last year.

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      1. Scouting report by Jonathan Mayo
        Rodriguez has proven to be durable since an elbow injury caused him to miss the entire 2011 season and has become a groundball machine. His sinking fastball has led to an outstanding GO/AO throughout his career, and it will still sit in the low 90s. Rodriguez combines it with an above-average changeup and a curve that, while inconsistent, can be a Major League average offering. He’s become better at filling up the strike zone as well. After a strong turn in the Arizona Fall League and some solid performances in winter ball, Rodriguez is ready at least for a move up to Triple-A, if not a shot at the Phillies’ rotation soon.

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    4. That list puts a lot of things into perspective. Very suddenly, this is the deepest starting pitching that the Phillies’ minor league system has ever had, top to bottom. It’s not necessarily the best, but I do believe it is the deepest. I think, for sure, there are a bunch of legit 4s and 5s in this group, the trick will be to develop a goodly share of these prospects into middle to upper rotation starters. But you have to like the sheer numbers. As for your Biddle question, I think we’ll have to see. Typically he would start at AA again, but they might just move him for a change of scenery and it won’t hurt that the pitching environment is much more favorable in the International League.

      Now for my complaint. Where are the hitters? Ruben loves pitching, but has always neglected hitting. We need younger hitters and we need a lot of them. Although, of course, in a rebuilding year the focus will be on the minor league hitters, as a partial season ticket holder, I shutter to think how bad the hitting will be at the big league level this year.

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        1. Well, let me qualify that. I’ve been living in the area since the late 80s and have been following the minor league system during that entire time, although I’ve followed it much more closely over the last 10 years. It’s clearly the deepest group of starting prospects they’ve had during that period of time and it’s not close. Of course, the team has had very weak pitching prospects on whole throughout it’s history so it’s a bit of a dubious distinction. As a group, I’d give them an overall grade of a B, which reflects great depth on the whole but not a lot of very high ceiling starters.

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          1. And it’s a little hard to quantify even if you wanted to do that. That said, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers that have come from the Phillies farm system in the last 25 years, excluding the current team. They’ve produced a grand total of one 1/2 – Cole Hamels. Carlos Carrasco has the ability to develop into a 2 or a 3 – he’s a 3/4 right now. They produced Randy Wolf, who was a solid 3 at his peak. They produced Brett Myers, who was a 3 at his best. Kendrick was a 4/5. Cosart is a 4 with 2 upside and Trevor May looks like a 4, at best. Adam Eaton was somewhere between a 3 and a 5, depending on the year. It’s a pretty weak group over a 25 year period.

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    5. Early in the season teams need a lot of starters because guys don’t usually jump out of the gate pitching 6 or 7 innings. They usually start with 4 and move to 5 innings in April and some of May. So two starters to each game can be beneficial. One goes the first 4 innings and the 2nd (I guess he’s more of a long man than a starter) goes 4 innings and then the bullpen picks it up. At least a few games become reliever’s games when a starter or “long man” fail. After a little time goes by, the men and boys get separated. Those that do well get more starts or even a promotion. Those that don’t make it, go to the bullpen or get moved down. Survival of the fittest in all it’s glory.

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  12. I went with the upside and potential 30hr power of Cozens here. I also think he will be a double digit stolen base guy for the first 5 years or so his MLB career.

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    1. Wow that’s bold for Cozens. 16 HRS in LKW is impressive but a .303 OBP is not nor is a 26% K rate.

      He’ll need to get back to being a way more disciplined hitter in CLW this year to even have a chance at making the MLB.

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      1. No OF’er in the system has more upside potential than Cozens. And that includes the higher ranked Quinn. I think peeps forget how young Cozens is. He’ll start 2015 at 20 yrs old (turns 21 on May 31st) in advanced-A Clearwater where he’ll be at least a full year younger than the competition. For comparison, he’s only 6 months older that Cord Sandberg (who somehow received 4 votes for no. 8 prospect). Cozen is on breakout watch for me. He might start peaking his head into national Top 100 lists come next season

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