Around the System–Relief Pitchers, CLearwater, Lakewood, WP and GCL


Dan Child, 21, Phils 18th round pick in 2013 draft; 19 games; 1-1 with a 5.12ERA; 1 save; 31.2IP 47H 16BB 21K; 2.30 GO/AO; .356 opp. avg; 1.67WHIP; 4.5BB/6.0K per 9; .426 vs. LHH, .281 vs. RHH, .356 with RISP.  With opponents hitting over .350 against him, it has been a miserable season for Child.

Cody Forsythe, 23, Phils 25th  round pick in 2013 draft; 25 games between Lakewood and CLearwater; 3-2 with a 2.59ERA; 9 saves; 31.1IP 29H 6BB 27K; 0.77 GO/AO; .234 opp avg; 1.11 WHIP; 1.7BB/7.8K per 9; Forsythe was promoted just last week to Clearwater and had an excellent year, albeit as a 23 year old in Lakewood.

Jordan Guth, 23, Phils 9th round pick in 2012 draft; 23 games, 1-3 with a 2.76ERA; 4 saves; 29.1IP 33H 18BB 19K; 0.79 GO/AO; .282 opp. avg; 1.72 WHIP; 5.5BB/5.8K per 9; .340 vs. LHH, .240 vs. RHH, .250 with RISP.  When you look at the numbers as a whole, Guth has been very average this year.  Too many walks and not enough dominance to see long term success.

Lino Martinez, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2009; 22 games, 0-3 with a 3.67ERA; 3 saves; 41.2IP 28H 29BB 40K; 0.93 GO/AO; .193 opp avg; 1.36 WHIP; 6.3BB/8.6K per 9; .228 vs. LHH, .170 vs. RHH, .139 with RISP. Martinez’s line is dominant until you consider the walks.  If his control improves, we may really have something here…

Ramon Oviedo, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 13 games; 0-0 with a 0.48 ERA; 18.2IP 17H 11BB 12K; 1.00 GO/AO; .258 opp avg; 1.50WHIP; 5.3BB/5.8K per 9; The ERA wont last walking over 5 batters per nine innings.  He has pitched out of trouble well.(.143 with RISP)

Lee Ridenhour, 24, Phils 16th round pick in 2013 draft; 25 games, 2-5 with a 4.21ERA; 6 saves; 36.1IP 36H 9BB 27K; 1.03 GO/AO; .259 opp avg; 1.24 WHIP; 2.2BB/6.6K per 9; 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 5 saves in 10 June appearances.  Ridenhour has really taken it up a notch when placed in higher leverage situations.  Continued production lands him in Reading come August.

Kevin Walter, 22, Phils 20th round pick in 2010 draft; 19 games, 0-2 with a 5.97ERA; 34.2IP 38H 19BB 18K; 0.77 GO/AO; .279 opp. avg; 1.64 WHIP; 4.9BB/4.7K per 9; .274 vs. LHH, .284 vs. RHH, .292 with RISP.  Any time a pitcher is walking more than they are striking out, that is a recipe for destruction.


Jesen Therrien, 21, Phils  round pick in 2012 draft; 19 games, 1-0 with a 5.73ERA; 37.2IP 38H 16BB 24K; 1.07GO/AO; .253 opp avg; 1.43 WHIP; 3.8BB/5.7K per 9; .348 vs. LHH, .173 vs. RHH, .271 with RISP; Left handed hitters are crushing Therrien, causing the large majority of his problems.

Scott Harris, 21,  Phils  27th round pick in 2014 draft; 3 games, 0-0 with a 1.80ERA: 5IP 4H 1BB 4K.

Matt Hockenberry, 22, Phils 9th round pick in 2014 draft; 3 games, 1-0 with a 5.06ERA; 5.1IP 9H 1BB 6K.

Ulises Joaquin, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 24 games, 0-1 with a 4.89ERA; 5 saves; 38.2IP 36H 16BB 26K; 1.23 GO/AO; .240 opp avg; 1.34 WHIP; 3.7BB/6.1K per 9; .200 vs. LHH, .275 vs. RHH, .289 with RISP.  Joaquin has been serviceable this year.

Shane Martin, 23, Phils 9th round pick in 2013 draft; 11 games (3 starts); 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA; 27IP 47H 8BB 15K; 1.64 GO/AO; .395 opp avg; 2.04 WHIP; 2.7BB/5.0K per 9; This season has pretty much been an unmitigated disaster for Martin, who pitched very well last year in WIlliamsport.

Will Morris, 21, Phils 24th round pick in 2013 draft; 7 games, 1-0 with a 1.59ERA; 11.1IP 9H 1BB 13K; 0.43 GO/AO; .214 opp avg; 0.88 WHIP.  Looking good early on.

Christopher O’Hare, 23, Phils 23rd round pick in 2013 draft; 9 games, 0-4 with a 6.10ERA; 10.1IP 11H 9BB 14K; 7.50 GO/AO; .268 opp avg; 1.94 WHIP; After returning from his second suspension for performance enhancing substances, O’Hare has simply not been very good.

Julio Reyes, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 18 games (3 starts); 1-2 with a 3.28ERA; 46.2IP 37H 11BB 33K; 0.91 GO/AO; .211 opp. avg; 1.02WHIP; 2.1BB/6.4K per 9; .241 vs. LHH, .188 vs. RHH, .212 with RISP; Reyes has pitched consistently well this year,showing very good command.  I would like to see him moving to CLearwater shortly.


Richard Bielski, 19, Phils 14th round pick in 2012; 5 games, 1-0 with a 1.23ERA; 7.1IP 3H 7BB 5K.

Joey Denato, 22, Phils 19th round pick in 2014 draft; 4 games, 0-0 with a 5.40ERA; 5IP 5H 3BB 7K.

Delvi Francisco, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 13 games between Lakewood and Williamsport, 2-1 with a 8.59ERA; 22IP 23H 19BB 22K; 0.91 GO/AO; .258 opp avg; 1.91 WHIP; 7.8BB/9.0K per 9; After pitching well early on this season, Francisco has been awful over the last month or so.

Eineiry Garcia, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2012; 4 games, 0-0 with a 5.79ERA; 4.2IP 6H 2BB 5k;

Manny Martinez, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 9 games between Lakewood and WIlliamsport; 0-2 with a 10.03ERA; 11.2IP 12H 8BB 11K; 1.27 GO/AO; .255 opp avg; 1.71WHIP. Has good stuff and really has no idea where it is going.

Mark Meadors, 22, Phils 15th round pick in 2013 draft; 3 games, 0-1 with a 15.43ERA; 2.1IP 1H 3BB 1K.

Calvin Rayburn, 22, Phils 16th round pick in 2014 draft; 4 games, 0-0 with a 1.93ERA; 2 saves; 4.2IP 2H 1BB 4K.  Early reports have been very good.

Frank Rivas, 21,  SIgned as a free agent in 2011; 4 games, 1-0 with an 0.00ERA: 8IP 5H 4BB 6K; .185 opp. avg

Keivi Rojas, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 15 games between Lakewood and WIlliamsport; 2-0 with a 3.00ERA; 27IP 21H 13BB 19K; 4HR allowed; 0.60 GO/AO; .206 opp. avg; 1.26WHIP; 4.3BB/6.3K per 9. ROjas has thrown relatively well all year ad could have stayed in Lakewood without embarrassing himself.

Bryan Sova, 22, Phils 25th round pick in 2014 draft; 4 games, 0-0 with a 0.00ERA; 4IP 7H 1BB 4K.


Seranthony Dominguez, 19, SIgned as a free agent in 2012; 2 games, 0-1 with a 1.50ERA; 6IP 4H 2BB 8K. I am excited about DOminguez’s possibilities.

Gregorio Santos, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 1 game, 0-0 with a 3.00ERA; 3IP 2H 1BB 1K.

Alexis Rivero, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 2 games, 0-0 with a 0.00ERA; 3IP 2H 1BB 1K.

Jacques De Gruy, 22, Phils 26th round pick in 2014 draft; 2 games, 0-0 with a 6.00ERA; 3IP 4H 2BB 2K.

Jared Fisher, 21, Phils 15th round pick in 2014 draft; 1 game, 0-0 with a 3.38ERA; 2.2IP 2H 1BB 3K.

Matt Southard, 22, Phils  round pick in 2014 draft; 2 games, 1-0 with a 4.50ERA; 2IP 2H 0BB 2K.

Franklyn Kilome, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 2 games, 0-0 with a 0.00ERA; 3IP 1H 2BB 1K.

Edubray Ramos, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 2 games, 0-0 with a 0.00ERA; 2IP 0H 0BB 1K.

Chris Oilver, Soon to be 21, Phils 4th round pick in 2014 draft; 2 games; 0-1 with a 12.27ERA; 3.2IP 6H 3BB 4K.

Lewis Alezones, 18, SIgned as a free agent in 2013; 2 games, 0-0 with a 4.25 ERA; 4IP 4H 0BB 3K


54 thoughts on “Around the System–Relief Pitchers, CLearwater, Lakewood, WP and GCL

  1. It’s the minor league, a developmental league….figure it out. If it was’t, they would all be in the pro’s already!

  2. SSS notwithstanding, is Chris Oilver off to the most disappointing start given his draft status?

    Walks, walks, walks – I have to say that the system may be in the worst position that it has been in the past 10 years. Absolutely nothing on the pitching side

  3. Steve so true. The most disappointed thing is yesterday, Montgomery. who I now hate as much as Giles, said no rebuilding, He is afraid of attendance..

        1. Montgomery, Amaro and Giles would not do well in the Cardinals organization.
          Would they let the greatest postional player in the last 10 years walk as a free agent?
          My guess no. But the Cardinals appear not to be adverse to risk.
          David Montgomery talks about the economics and to some extent the affected fan base on a ‘rebuild’….well Comcast has agreed to a pretty decent deal with the Phillies… will not be necessary to have 100% sell-outs under the financial terms of that deal.
          The only man in that ownership group who would change the culture is John Middleton, but he is a silent partner without any of the authority needed to make the changes.
          Of course they still get my $$$$….so who is the dumb one here!

    1. Roccom, you missed the sentence that David Montgomery said there will not be a complete rebuild but acknowledged some players will be traded. Kevin Cooney asked him if there will be a rebuild like the 76er’s. In my opinion the 76er’s moves are very risky and will lead to quick success or continuing losing/tanking. The Phillies are trying to put the best players on the field even if they are 35 years old.

      1. The Phillies, as an organisation, have no cohesive, coherent strategy. That’s the reason so many fans are so fed up. The Sixers keep losing, yes, but at least they have a long-term plan. Whether it fails or succeeds, we’ll see, but the Phillies as they currently stand are a joke and a slap in the face of the fan base.

        1. Patrick, you call winning 25% of the games and trading decent players for lesser players trying to rebuild? Even Brett Brown has major concerns on the 3 point shooters which the Sixers could have picked at #10. It would not surprise me to see the new owners sell the team for a profit as their background is Wall Street. Many NBA teams have tried to follow this plan and most fail miserably. I prefer to see a team at least trying to win not tanking on purpose.

      2. Phil winning 75 games isn’t what we want, so if you need to rebuild the fans will understand. Maybe I am wrong , but I rather see young talent right now, that has a chance than Howard, a cripple. Mayberry playing too much which expose him, he isn’t a starter. Having to play brown who stinks, revere and so on. I rather see younger kids, and to get them you need a better fo, and to get higher choices. and commit money to Cuba players, and international players, and don’t throw me mag which we paid 12 million for, that’s the reason we need a new fo. I love what the sixers are trying. if they get some players in place then use free agents, but to be a 85 to 90 loss teams, and keep drafting the same bad players. I just don’t get it.

        1. The mid to older fan will understand, since they have been down this road before, the younger fan, say 25/30-years old and younger, may not, since over the last 10 years, except for the last 2/3, the team has been pretty decent.

        2. I agree that the Phillies need an overhaul but to dump a Rollins or Utley when there is no capable full time replacements makes no sense unless you can get those young close to MLB players. I still disagree with you about the Sixers who are a bad joke to me right now but if Hinkie’s plan brings a NBA Championship to Philadelphia then I will say you were correct.

          1. Well, the Sixers followed the Phillies approach you like for many years prior to Hinkie. It didn’t work. The Hinkie plan may not work either, but at least it is a new course away from planned mediocrity. The Sixers have a shot in two years time. The Phillies don’t. So, which organization has been foolish. The Phillies are on pace to lose 90 games. That will send attendance lower. How much worse would it be if the Phillies had actually done a real rebuild and left the pain behind them. More to the point, how much better if the owners had scrapped their archaic views on amateur bonuses and spent big when they had the necessary revenue and MLB rules permitted it. Unlike the Sixers, they didn’t need to tank to get top talent. They just had to spend a lot more on bonuses than they were spending. International talent was totally uncapped and they had just about as big a revenue stream as any team. They chose to let this opportunity pass. Their current problems are totally self inflicted. It really is the Giles way. The man is so short-sighted he cannot bear to spend $ on the farm when the MLB team is doing well. He bought a winning team with great scouts and a superior farm from Ruly Carpenter and quickly trashed both. As long as the Giles philosophy prevails, this is what we will get.

            1. I love to know who thumbs down what you said Allentown, You made the points that so many on here just ignore. One is giles called the shots and didn’t want to get the commissioner mad. So they were one of the only big market teams that wouldn’t go over cap, and it ruined this team. He refuse to let his ownership group go big in international market, think of it. When this team was good, if they had any imagination, they would have went for some talent thinking of long term replacements for howard, rollins ultley and others, and if you hit on two good prospects say a shortstop and outfielder, who would be cheap right now, it would allow you to still be a player in fa, you never make he pence trade, and other things would have fallen in place, shortsighted thinking by this group ruin, a chance to keep the 08-09 winning going for a long time,

          2. philabaltfan…you mentioned Rollins/Utley without f/t replacements makes no sense….you may have to do that in another year and half anyway.
            Is there anyone in the farm who will be ready who is not already there?
            Cesar Hernandez can adequately handle second base defensively, same with Galvis at shortstop. Their bats are questionable.
            But then again, Galvis and Hernandez maybe interim anyway, since both JP Crawford and maybe even Andrew Pullin will be even closer to Philly in 2016/17.

        3. Comparing the MLB rebuilding process to the NBA is apples to oranges. In the NBA, it’s near impossible to get really good unless you’re really bad first. What current NBA contender didn’t have a few terrible seasons resulting in high picks?

          It’s not the same in baseball, where there’s no salary cap to strangle trade opportunities, no free agency rules in place to give a player incentive to stay with the same team and a draft that works in a way that makes it possible to find impact talent outside of the first handful of picks.

          What the Sixers are doing makes sense for the NBA, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies should adopt the same strategy.

  4. So here’s the thing … let’s look at the big picture. THERE ARE NO YOUNG PLAYERS AVAILABLE. Let’s play an admittedly extreme hypothetical game – but it’s a fair game because it’s what a small but vocal percentage of the readership here wants. Let’s say we get rid of every older player, plus the two young guys who are popular to hate, Brown and Revere. Now let’s try to build a team …. keep in mind no free agents (sort of inconsistent with going young). Even an optimist is going to be hard pressed to argue that our veterans are going to get us much in the way of major league ready young players. So what do we have?

    The lineup … Say Rupp/Ruf/Hernandez/Galvis/Asche/Atherr/Dugan/Perkins. I don’t know if people realize how bad that lineup would be. Certainly the worst in major league baseball by a huge margin. One of the worst in major league history.

    The starting pitching … much worse. I don’t even want to take part in the exercise of thinking about what the rotations would look like. Buchanan would be the ace, and the best pitcher in the rotation by a huge margin. It would probably be the worst starting rotation in major league history.

    The relievers would be … merely bad. Maybe even mediocre.

    The team would be easily the worst team in major league history and would lose 130 games. Or worse.

    1. I can only make the assumption that you believe the Phillies will waive Rollins, Utley, Lee, Papelbon, Byrd, Revere and Brown, since they will get nothing in return and thus the lineup you presented above will be a part of the worst team in major league history.
      That is a fundamentally flawed statement.
      Utley alone could bring back one tier-one prospect, especially if Colletti keeps kicking the tires.
      Paps could garnish another, if the Phillies are willing as Ruben said they were, to pay a portion of the final approx $18M on his contract
      Byrd is hot so he gets a tier-two prospect
      Revere and Brown are young controllable assets which is a plus in their favor….but you also get reciprocally underachieving players in return for them, but nevertheless players who may just need a change of scenery.
      I assume you also are ridding the team of Hamels…..since Buchanan is now the ace. Hamels may have some value, there has to be a team out there who would like to have him. .

      Now your post above….was it out of frustration due to the current state of affairs of this team?

      1. I was, if anything, bending over backwards to be kind. And if you want to talk about frustration … wow, talk about the pot calling the kettle black?It’s you and Rocom who are allowing your frustration to allow you to propose absurdities.

        Fist of all, you’re MASSIVELY too optimistic about return for these guys. Secondly, what do you think a tier two prospect is? Hint: it’s not a player ready to step into a regular major league role. It’s guy ready to step into a bench role, or a somewhat higher upside player a couple of years away.

        Let’s go down the list:

        Utley isn’t waiving his no trade, and your comment about how much Colleitti wants him is entirely in your imagination. That said, he is the one guy most likely get a decent prospect. Preferably a high upside talent a couple years away. If it’s a major league ready player, it won’t be anyone to get excited about. No, Pederson is absurd. Throw in Crawford on top of Utley – maybe that would get it done. But I wouldn’t do that.

        Hamels, with that contract, he isn’t getting you nearly what you and others imagine. Again, if the team was smart, they would get a higher upside player who was a couple years away.

        Lee at this point gets you a tier two prospect. Maybe more in late August if he gets fully healthy, proves it in a half dozen starts, get through waivers. Again, the smart move would be a higher upside player a couple years away. A major league ready return for Lee would be maybe a 4th/5th starter. Okay, better than Buchanan, but if you’re going to deal Lee why not go for a higher upside player further away from the majors?

        Ruiz, if the concussion isn’t serious, maybe gets you a tier two prospect. Papelbon maybe a tier two prospect. The fact that he is universally and correctly regarded as a clubhouse cancer doesn’t help.

        Brown and Revere get you, as you said yourself, not much.

        The rest of the older guys get you tier 3 prospects at best. Howard you would need to release.

        Recap – the two (IF Utley waives his no trade clause maybe 3 if Lee gets healthy quickly) player who can get you a meaningful return would, if the team was smart, get high upside players a couple years away. So no immediate help. No one else is getting us anyone who will help immediately (if ever( in a a starting role.

        Look, some of these guys should be shopped despite the above. Heck, if not for the injury depressing his value, Lee in particular is just someone that the team would almost have to trade. If this team did what you want them to do, they would be extremely lucky to win 30 games over a full season.

        1. Larry am I angry sure. Right now pap for anything gives us 13 million. he has no value to 100 loss team, especially with this bullpen. Utley is 35 and herdanez can play second and those two give us close to 30 million salary cap relief, byrd isn’t going to make us better so replacing him with a cheaper option helps us I don’t care if we get lower level guys. But remember one of your things is you cant get headley for that guy, or boujous for pap is nuts, Castellanos for pap no way, the shortstop f or Texas who’s name I forgot the same. well larry I am so happy you were right. cause Headley stinks, do you think St Louis would trade boujous for pap now. Castellanos is no better than asche, and the shortstop for Texas cant hit. So I give you credit you were right, and ty god you were cause trading pap or lee for those guys would have made us worse, if that is possible. point is you overvalue prospects imo.

          1. Roccom I think one of the ways to look at it is what is the point with being flush with cash if there isn’t anything worth spending it on or if you don’t have the younger long term replacement in the system.

            That is the case for guys like Utley or Rollins as those two are home grown icons. You don’t part ways with those types of players for nothing but salary relief.

            Sometimes the best laid plans fall apart and sometimes it just never comes together. Texas is a great example of that and so are the Rays. It can all come apart in a hurry.

            Last season the Jays gambled on an expensive roster in exchange for some really good prospects and found themselves on their backs looking up and this season a total 180. The Yankees gamble every year on expensive aging veterans and have run a thin farm system for years despite a long track record of not getting results.

            So while its a bad time to be a Phillies fan its also part and parcel of the entire league. Just count the number of teams last year that were in the playoffs that if the season ended today would not be in the playoff and vice versa that’s parity.

            Of course there is plenty of season left and teams like the Cards, Pirates, Indians, Red Sox might find their way in but we are also looking at the Blue Jays, The Royals, Brewers etc..replacing them. You have 5 times out as of now and 2 of them were in the WS.

            1. If this were just one bad season I’d agree with you, but… the crash in this team’s production from the 102-win season has been both unbelievably swift, but also confirmed in this, the third year of the collapse. Despite adding vets to supplement the core each winter, the results have gotten progressively worse. It is time that we admit that this is not the normal back and forth of team success and failure due to luck, random injuries, etc. That 102-win team has totally collapsed. It is now a solid last-place team. Not due to bad luck, but due to the talent level. Everything points to this being how bad they actually are. So… you need to adjust your approach or reconcile yourself to more of the same or even worse if we stay the course.

              I agree on one point: there isn’t much benefit in trading Rollins or Utley simply for salary relief.

              The little bit of benefit is this: as the Phillies proceed with this stretch out the old core until they totally break down approach, it makes quite a few positions off-limits for long-term improvement, either from internal kids, trades, dumpster dives, or younger FA pickups. We have a pretty much totally yuck team, yet the catcher and entire IF, as well as at least RF are locked in for next season. That really shouldn’t be the case for such an awful team.

        2. LarryM…..frustration?
          I have been down this road since ’64 more then a few times….it is now a quiet resignation realizing that the cycle of baseball will eventually turn…question is when.
          Concerning Colletti and the LAD….perhaps you should personally contact Jayson Stark and see what he he has heard in the recent past. I am sure you realize, thats his profession within the baseball venue and he does it well. This way you can entirely ignore what I post and have no need to comment on it..
          And what knowledge do you have that Utley will not waive his NTC?
          Just curious of your sources…maybe the Utleys personally?
          And the return value you infer for those veteran players….well they are anybody’s guess at this point what can be acquired..
          If Ruben pulls the trigger, then we shall see what comes about.

          1. romus you spend your money and go to games , would you rather see more of these last two years? Does it matter to you if we lose 100 games or 110 is there a difference?? do you believe anything Ruben or Montgomery say. Would it matter to you right now to see younger guys play like Hernandez, Asche, Rupp. and the young bullpen arms, over pap, Utley , Byrd. chooch. I am curious.

      2. If we’re rebuilding why would we trade Brown and Revere? They’re young and relatively cheap, with no replacements ready just yet. And we’d be selling low on them.

        I find it ironic that the same people who want to play the kids don’t want to be patient on Brown.

        1. Brown is close to becoming a dead loss, but is probably not tradable for anything of any value whatsoever. It is not good practice to sell really low. He may recoup his hitting ability next season as Burrell did after his disastrous post-contract year. Guys can get in bad ruts that are only cured by winter. Revere hasn’t collapsed this season, it has really been just more of the same. He is what he has always been. The optimists thought he had been playing corner OF because there was another CF starter. Turns out he had been playing corner OF because he is a lousy CF.

          If a good trade possibility requires including Revere, I guess you do it, but I really don’t see him having much trade value. The reason we all want to replace him is because he just isn’t a good baseball player.

          Trading Brown would probably be the merciful thing to do. I guess if another team gives value for him, it would have to be considered, even if it is sell low.

          1. Dom Brown had a approx 40 game burst in 2013 with great numbers in give or take 150 PAs.
            Then look at prior and after that burst and what do you have in give or take a total of 1200 PAs.
            Prior – .232./.314 / .379 ——- .After – 238/ .295 /.361

    2. Larry besides attendance , can you explain the difference to a moron like me, in losing 90 plus games to 110. I Think your comments are that of a owner, more than a fan imo. I am not trying to argue with anyone. I just want them to try to rebuild, and with there money, and a couple of key guys moved for prospects it could happen faster. I believe with added saving and a commitment from owernship to spend in all markets, and don’t worry about tax. Would be a right first step. Right now Utley and lee are the two guys who bring us better prospects, if we have Sizemore in the outfield over Byrd what is the big deal . Pap should be moved cause the bullpen needs to be cheaper and younger, to use that money to spend maybe on a Cuban outfielder, we need more salary flexibility, and a new gm.

      1. Well, you have a bit of a point. If you look back on Larry’s posts he was saying after last season and I think at trade deadline that if we traded X, Y, and Z vets that we would be a 90-100 loss team and this was not doable because revenue would tank and fans would revolt. He isn’t wrong on that, but he has updated his line to if we did a rebuild, we would be a 110-130 loss team. I doubt it would be that bad. It is really hard to build a 130 loss team. Even hapless expansion teams really can’t do that. Why the change? Events have overtaken Larry. Last winter we held onto our vets, signed a lot better grade of FA/trade vets than we had in 2012 (Byrd, Burnett, Hernandez certainly better than the two Youngs and Adams) and by keeping spending at the max and not trading for kids — voila! We have hit Larry’s dreaded 90-100 loss season. Yes, realistically that’s where this team, with all its FA additions is going to finish. And yes, the fans are in revolt and yes revenue is down again. Moral — there isn’t an easy glide path to a rebuild slowly with our own kids while hanging onto and supplementing our old core of vets. The oldsters can’t hold the fort and achieve halfway respectability. There just aren’t many of our own kids who will be ready and key contributors any time soon. On the other hand, Larry is correct that our vets won’t bring a haul of kids who can be plus major leaguers. We’ve reached the point where we might as well trade whom we can at this year’s trade deadline. Holding onto our vets isn’t producing enough wins to matter. Yes, rebuild will be brutal, but the alternative is years of drifting further downhill. I say this knowing that if we trade, next season won’t be at all pretty. It will be 100-105 losses, in all likelihood. I would keep Hamels and our young relievers. Other than that, anybody who brings a decent return gets traded. Not salary dump traded — we do have $$ and there won’t be young rebuild FA that we can sign, at least not without losing another draft pick. Anyway you slice it, this is going to be simply brutal. The stupidities of the past have come home to roost.

  5. Utley not going anywhere future coach he said he’s not going to waive the 10 5 . plus Murphy for the Mets is younger and is being offered by the Mets .S D the Cubs and even the Boston Red Sox are having there on fire sale. Plus every prospect we get will be Sp help. Larry M has put the must realistic spin the hole trade scenario.

    1. In the end, I think he waives it. It is not in his personal PR interest to give any hint today that he is willing to leave. If this team continues to play as it’s been playing, he will be happy enough to leave, especially if some of his teammates are traded. I doubt he is a future coach, but who knows? Sandberg is a rarity. Most stars have enough $ and baseball stature that they are simply unwilling to go through the minor league stops necessary to become a major league coach or manager. Schmidt started that journey and quickly decided that he preferred golf. It takes more of a fringe player or a Bowa personality to go that route. If Utley wants to remain in baseball, the broadcast booth is a far more attractive route and also permits working with and coaching up the kids a little in ST. Think back — how many of the big name former Phillies have decided to become coaches? How many became broadcasters?

      1. I do agree with Allentown also. Utley will waive if the right situation presents itself I think most of these guys will to get into a playoff race.

    2. No, Larry’s spin is no longer realistic. It made sense at last year’s trade deadline, although the Lee injury means we lost that bet. I favored Larry’s approach last year. But we reloaded with vets for 2014 and the results are worse than last season. It is time to change direction. Staying true to the present path is going to net us in the vicinity of 100 losses next season. That is not respectable, so there is no point hanging onto expensive, fading vets to achieve that awful result, rather than perhaps losing 110 games. 100 losses vs 110 really isn’t going to make any difference to fan loyalty and revenue. The team will be pilloried for either result. This year’s W-L is even worse than it seems, because we are not a team that plays especially well at home, meaning that the fans are already experiencing the equivalent of a 100+ loss team with a more normal home advantage.

      1. Speaking for myself, I go to games to see guys like Utley. If they traded him, I would watch/attend fewer games. How often do you get to root for homegrown HOF players?

        It’s also not like we have a lot of good prospects who are ready to play. I guess Hernandez is the only one who’s being blocked. Maybe Ruf when he’s healthy. But those guys are pretty marginal prospects.

  6. Alentown,

    We’ve done this dance before. Someone proposes a “radical rebuild,” trading/getting rid of substaintially all the older guys, and (in this case) also getting rid of two of the younger guys, pretty much regardless of return. I point out the absurdity of same, and point out that the team would lose something like 120 games or more.

    You come back and, without defending the original radical rebuild plans, ostensibly disagree with me, and defend a much more modest rebuilding plan – one that isn’t very different than mine!!!

    And, yes, it’s true that a team can rebuild without hitting the depths of a 110 plus loss season. Which is .. what the team seems to be trying to do! Not perfectly by any means. But (in essence) teams avoid that by avoiding the kind of radical sell off that Romus and Roccom are proposing.

    At the end of the day, this is really about aesthetics. Romus and roccom would rather watch a bunch of AAA players, regardless of skill or promise, than watch better, older players. That’s an aethetic that I (and you) don’t share. We want to see major league players on the field. Which for the moment means no radical rebuild. Now, both of us might push the rebuild a little faster than the organization (or maybe not – we don’t know what kind of offers they have been getting), and you likely would go a little further than I. But it’s pretty clear that you would stop well sort of the petulant “get rid of almost the entire roster” appraoch of Romus and Roccom.

    Finally, as for your “Larry’s objections made more sense last year than this year,” I’d argue that the opposite is true. What’s most different this year is the complete collapse of the organization’s young major league and major league ready talent – it’s actually kind of astonishing. Even if you retain faith in the two players who topped the prospect list last year – and I do, regarding Franco, though having some doubts about Biddle – they clearly aren’t ready. And just about everyone else is worse! Get rid of all the veterans and you have two choices – the lineup I set forth above (and yes, they would lose 130 games) or sign a bunch of cheap free agents in their 30s. Neither option would yield a fun to watch team, and neither option would advance the cause of a return to contending status.

    1. I think my position is mid-way between yours and Roccom’s. I don’t trade just to trade and dump salary. I don’t trade the kids. I also don’t hold the core together in its entirety if I can get value back in return, even if I eat the rest of the 2014 salary. As I said, last fall you were warning that an aggressive (not roccom aggressive, but aggressive) rebuild would lead to 90-100 losses. Well we really are there and a continuation of this approach loses 100 games next season, without giving any boost to the rebuild. If we can get back young players/prospects who have a high likelihood of helping going forward, then I make the trade. When we last did this dance my position was the same as it is now. Don’t trade yet, but if things look grim at the 2014 deadline, then make good trades, if they are available. If they aren’t available, then there really isn’t anything RAJ can do. But holding this group of oldsters together for another season to try to remain respectable has become a lost cause. We are not respectable any more and that is extremely unlikely to change in 2015. If we are doomed to yet another awful season, I want it to be part of implementing a path forward. There can/will be no looking for replacements while the old vets ‘own’ their position. Maybe Hernandez isn’t good at 2B going forward, but perhaps the middle IF equivalent of a Werth is out there somewhere. We won’t even look seriously as long as we have Rollins/Utley inked into the 2015 lineup. Odds are that whomever replaces them doesn’t do as well as Rollins/Utley 2014, but I doubt Rollins/Utley 2015 matches the current version either and think Utley is a huge injury risk going forward. I said your approach made more sense last year than now, because there was more hope then that the 2014 team could be ok than there is today that the 2015 team can be okay. I’m reconciled to the near inevitability that the Phillies will utterly stink in 2015. Let’s at least be trying to move forward. So to summarize, no bad trades just to dump salary, any good trades we can do, but let’s get some momentum for change. The present nostalgia thinking seems to have the team locked into a mentality that will not get us where we want to be anytime soon. Yes, there are not a lot of young internal candidates moving forward. We made need the world’s largest AAAA audition. That gave us Werth before. We may need to fill a couple positions through platooning. That worked in 1993, with four so-so guys giving two strong positions. An organization reaches the point where things become so bad that major change becomes imperative.

      1. See, as I said we are not disagreeing much. And apparently Romus and I aren’t either. I don’t really have the time to re-read the thread to see if the misunderstanding was my fault or his (nor does it really matter).

        IMO the biggest disagreements are about factors outside of the organization’s control – Utley’s willingness to accept a trade, the ability to get a return on some of our veterans. If we can get a good return on these guys – and “good” is a relative term – then sure, entertain trades.

        1. That is how I feel.
          If Utley decides he wants to go to a contender, then Ruben, must decide to get the absolute best return possible.

    2. Incidentally LarryM…..I cannot recall proposing a complete over-haul of this team or as you state…’a complete radical sell off’.
      To be perfectly blunt, only three players would i be willing to ove for a the right price…Chase Utley, only if he is willing to go, to a contender I assume, Papelbon, whether he is willing or not, he would go, and finally Marlon Byrd.
      If you consider moving those three as a radical sell off, well be my guest.
      Hamels, Lee, Chooch, Rollins and yes Brown and Revere stay the course.

      Though I suspect, if Utley ever decides to come and waive his NTC to get a shot at the ring one last time, Jimmy will probably follow.

      Now I will await your ‘War and Peace’ rebuttal.

      1. I fail to see the logic in moving Utley for the right price, but not Lee, Chooch or Rollins. If the players aren’t in a team’s long-term plans and another team is offering value prospects, why wouldn’t you move the others as well?

      2. Lmao Romus I mention four players in my rebuild. and larry had me trading the whole team. Larry as a lawyer I thought you understood, you must not go into court unprepared, I Mention Paplebon because of our young guys. he is replaceable. Chase for value and Hernandez could help replace him at lower level play, Rupp over Chooch, and a cheaper option for Byrd. But after listen to the article on july 30th by Montgomery there is no hope he is nuts totally, He is talking about 2016 like he has a ton of players that will be ready, imo he is so locked in on attendance he has forgotten what it takes to win, so I really believe there is no hope, so comments by me and others wont change the facts, this is the 1960s Phillies, a bad gm bad owner and no hope,

  7. 1 We are rebuilding already aka the young bullpen.Cody Ashe Cesar Herandez as a Utility player Rupp getting a look.When they trade pap , Bryd, Mayberry, Lee the money will be used for FA until prospects are ready it’s called a slow rebuild. The Utley thing he already talks to umpires from the dugout .When a new player comes to the team or a prospect and ask about the signs they send the to Ultey. When Freddy Galvis first came up he stayed next Chase in the dougout he said he learned more about baseball for him then in his 6 yrs in the minors. When Montgomery was interviewed about Chase he I want here until he retires and even after . Plus Utley hit 240 with 2 hrs and 10 rbi,s in june. There only one place I can see him going is Oakland. S F brought up Panik 1 of there top prospects to play 2nd.L A they have a guy named Gordon . Aaron hill, Dave Murphy are now on the block . plus The Braves have a 2nd baseman sitting .
    Right now Chase is the face of the Phillies . I don’t to trade him for a player that might never make it . C Herandez is a nice utility player not a starter. There a nice article in the daily in the Philly inquirer ” two teams to differ directions.

    1. Everyone admires and loves Chase and what he brings to this club now and the last decade..
      Ruben even told FoX today he is not going anywhere, along with Cole.
      But what if, Chase does want to go somewhere for this year and his last year of his contract in 2015?
      He may want an opportunity to play in another post season.
      Would you deny him that?

      1. I would not deny Chase or Jimmy a chance to win another ring but maybe they want to stay in Philadelphia for future business reasons? After all they have a life after baseball.

    2. Sorry, but what you describe simply does not constitute rebuilding, slow or otherwise. It is simply the normal introduction of a couple new players a season, which virtually every team does each and every year, rebuilding or not, plus the also totally normal and obligatory bringing up of guys from the minors to replace injured major leaguers.

  8. There’s younger options out there right now then him. Sp and closers are really taking up a lot of the trade talks . The price for a good and very good sp takes up a lot of prospects. There might not be anything worth wild is only real option is Oakland and they Need a closer .

  9. Gregg, back to the original thread of Relievers in the lower levels; there looks like some potential relief help for the Phillies down the road-nice article. Sorry about hijacking thread which should have been under General Discussion.

  10. It was a good article the area of hope is relief pitchers. I, m just saying l d rather watch 2 HOF play every day until there replacements are found. If anyone thinks that Chase Utley and J roll being traded is best for the Phillies then
    So be it. Look for a 50% drop in attendance for at least 3 yrs.Once Chase leaves J Roll next then Hamels , Cooch, pap, Byrd, Lee. The phillies need young pitching so all trades we be for that with some throw ins of position players. I can’t see a line up off Revere , Galvis, Ashe , Howard, Brown, Castro, aaron Hill , C Rupp over the next 2 yrs. The Rotation of Kk, Morgan, Pettibone, marqius, Nola . since the phillies will have to eat at least half of Lee , Hamels and paps contact’s there won’t be enough free agent money to buy a new pitching staff. Once Chase and J Roll leave the rest will run for the door. Ask yourself this question do you trust RAJ and the scouts making the right trades ?

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