Boy, we’re really going to struggle to find stuff to talk about this week, I think.
Discuss. I mean, if you can think of anything. Good luck with that.
143 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 3-31-2014 – Absolutely Nothing Interesting Happening Today Edition”
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Phuture Phillies 
Okay, I’ll start.
I suspect that Sandberg really means what he says about the importance of “fundamentals” and “hustle” and all of that crap. I also think that it’s … well, crap.
I’m not sure that that is necessarily as bad as it could be, though. At the end of the day, unless it causes him to bench more talented players because they aren’t perceived to “play the game right” it is more or an annoyance than anything else. And I don’t think he’ll do that. To take one prominent example, Rollins play HAS declined. Because of age, obviously, not “intangibles,” but if he was the Rollins of 2007 (or even 2012), Sandberg would probably be extolling his leadership qualities.
And that brings me around to what will determine whether Sandberg becomes a good manger – HIS leadership capabilities. Manuel was a good manager because he did a good job of managing 25 egos, keeping the team loose and the clubhouse positive. If Sandberg can do the same, he will succeed.
The “hustle” BS worries me a little bit there – see, e.g., Larry Bowa, and a lot of players will (justifiably) roll their eyes when they hear that kind of talk – but Sandberg deserves the benefit of the doubt for now.
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I’m lost . . . You think playing the game the right way and playing hard is crap?
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What I think, some of which I’ve detailed before, is as follows:
(1) “Playing the game the right way” is a vague term that signifies little. It means different things to different people, and covers a lot of ground. What people mean by the term mostly falls into three categories: (a) things that matter a lot, but that almost all players have mastered by the time they are major league players,, (b) things that DON’T matter much, or are actively counterproductive (a lot of visible “hustle” falls into this category, or (c) ends up being a code for “clean cut white guys.” Note that I’m NOT saying that Sandberg, or most people around here, mean “c,” consciously or unconsciously, but for a lot of fans, that’s a factor (usually unconsciously).
I doubt that any WS championship, ever, has been decided because one team “plays the game right” and the other doesn’t.
(2) Playing hard is a different matter and does mean something. Just not what most people think. And let me say that baseball is very different than other major sports in this respect.
(a) Almost all of the hard work that determines success in baseball happens outside of the games themselves. Hard work in conditioning, working on deficiencies in one’s game, etc., etc., etc. mean a LOT. Just not very visible to the fan. I also think MOST major league players are hard workers in this sense. One thing the minor leagues winnow out are players without strong work ethics.
(b) Within games, because of unique facets of the game, “hard work” is mostly meaningless. This isn’t (e.g.) basketball, where a player needs to go full out 100% of the time. There are brief bursts of activity (pitchers somewhat excepted), and it’s relatively easy to go all out in those brief moments. Obviously, you don’t want players (say) dogging it in the field or on the bases, but the simple fact is that baseball is not a demanding game in this sense. The few players who can’t focus/go 100% in the brief moments during the game when this is required are, again, winnowed out in the minors, with few exceptions, cough, Delmon Young, cough. (And no, running out routine grounders is not an area where going all out is “required.”)
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I don’t think its vague at all. I think running out ground balls and pop ups is very important. I think hitting behind runners with less than 2 outs is important as is getting runs home from 3rd with less than two outs. I think throwing the ball to the right bag and through the cutoff is very important yet you can see highlights on any given night that there are players that don’t do it.
I think 32 managers stress the importance of Fundamentally playing the game the right way so if that was a vague term they wouldn’t mention it.
As far as Jimmy goes his issues have now transcended 3 different managers and two of which were middle infielders so I don’t think it is an accurate statement to say Ryne need not worry about that. He is not going to change Jimmy but he does need to learn from the experience of managing a player like Jimmy. You will get them as young players and you will get them as veterans.
Great scene in Money Ball when Beane addresses David Justice in the hitting cage. David tells Billy not to bother him with that playing the game the right way nonsense and Billy essentially sets him straight by hitting DJ in his pride. He says I’m not paying you $8 mil or whatever it was the Yankees are paying your salary to play against them. Simple but effective right.
Am I wrong to say you often contradict those you so often lament for running a proper org when someone from the Phillies runs the same logic through the media?
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I appreciate the specifics:
(1)I don’t think running out routine grounders and pop ups are at all important (obviously a hard hit grounder in a gap is different). I won’t revisit the specifics of why.
(2) Hitting behind the runners is a vastly overrated skill, and, more to the point, is more a skill than a choice. That is, some players simply have more ability than others to “place” the ball effectively. Players without that skill are hurting the team if they try to do it. Even for those players who CAN do it effectively, it has very little influence on scoring runs (except in incredibly rare cases, there is no such thing as a “good out”).
(3) Throwing the ball to the right bag and the cut off is an important skill that 99% of major league players get right 99% of the time. Obviously there are judgment calls in some cases which players won’t get right on the fly. Ironically, the mistake there might often be making the “textbook” play rather than taking advantage of a base running mistake.
I’m sure that all managers teach fundamentals. Very few make a religion out of it, and IMO those that do tend (on balance) to be less effective than those that don’t.
Jimmy gets the most important “make up” issues right – take conditioning seriously, has worked very hard on the deficiencies in his game over the years, has worked hard to adapt to diminished physical skills as he ages, smart base runner, smart and effective defender, positive (and somewhat cocky attitude). We’ll have to agree to disagree about the running out ground balls issue, but EVEN IF YOU ARE RIGHT, the good massively outweighs the bad. As you say, this stuff isn’t new with Rollins. It didn’t stop him from being the best short stop in team history, and didn’t stop the team from winning when he was good & surrounded by good players in their prime.
As for the Moneyball comment, that just goes to the part of this that I DO agree with (but that is usually invisible to the fan).
I’m afraid I don’t understand your last question, but would be happy to answer it if you rephrase.
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Okay, my last comment is awaiting moderation. Huh? I’m being 100% polite and respectful in my comments.
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You triggered the filters with the “cock” part of cocky, its all good now
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lol
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I really think running out groundballs the three or four times you are asked is important, I know of at least three times jimmy rollins last season, didn’t run hard on a ball and it was bobbled and then he started to run hard, and was out, watch guys with some speed run out all there grounders, did you ever watch maybin run to first, you better hustle or he is safe. it puts pressure on the infielder to make a quick and aurcrate throw. your could lose games by not hustling, I read a stat yesterday, which makes larry argument about not hitting behind the runner sound right, 38 percentage of men on second with no outs score on a single , with one outs it fifty one, with two outs seventy nine percentage, so if you a sabermatic guy, you say you don’t need to bunt a guy to second he only scores 38 percentage with no outs, these is where stats can be misleading, if you have a guy with any speed on second he scores a lot more than that, the reason behind these stat was third base coaches take less chances with no outs,Bunting and hitting behind the run put so much pressure on the infields, the pitchers, I still maintain larry never played this game, if he did he would realize its important to go all out all the time, I really don’t get the love for rollins lack of hustle, its not the way this game is suppose to be played, guys like mays, and others are most likely sick over these new breed of players.
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And I know that I’ll hear from some of the “you wouldn’t say that it you polayed the game” folks (I did play some, albeit at a very low level. What those people don’t get is this:
At the levels played by most people – higher than the level that I played, but still lower than the majors – e.g., HS, college, even the minors – that stuff DOES matter more. Many, many players haven’t been taught or mastered the “fundamentals,” and you have a lot more variation in work ethic. So in those venues, “playing the game right” CAN make a big difference.
By the time you get to the majors, that stuff is a given. At least that portion of it that really matters.
The one exception to this, invisible to outsiders, occurs outside the games themselves (though even there most players work hard at the game. If that’s what Sandberg is talking about, he has a point, though I doubt very much that hearing it from your manager means much. Players have it or they don’t, mostly, though having hard working veterans can make a difference for younger players. (Ironically, as Sanberg has acknowledged, Rollins is a good influence in that sense).,
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Have you not been paying attention to what is going on in LA with 66? It’s a false statement to say these guys make it through the minors knowing the proper fundamentals.
Did you not see Kolton Wong get picked off in the WS. Now one can contend there is the component of speed of the MLB game compared to other levels but I say that is part of the process. You have to be able to execute what you’ve been taught and a much faster pace.
it’s not inherent in each and every MLB player. If it were than guys like Trout, Utley, Jeter wouldn’t stand out.
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I didn’t say all major league players, I said almost all.
Anyway, you’re conflating a couple different things here. Most of what you’re talking about I agree with and have stated above and many,,many times – hard work outside the games themselves. Very important. NOT what is usually meant when people start with the “playing the game right” platitudes.
AND I still contend that the landscape looks like this:
(1) A very few exceptional players like Trout and Utley and Jeter who, though insane hard work and intelligence and, for want of a better word, baseball instincts, are exceptionally able to maximize their talent. Unfortunately, while such players are good to have, their “make up” can’t be taught.
(2) The vast majority of major league players, who work darn hard, but aren’t at the Utley/Jeter/Trout level (all of whom are of course ALSO very talented naturally).
(3) A very few poor “make up” players who are talented enough to slip through into the majors. Delmon Young springs to mind.
I don’t know enough about the Puig situation (none of us do) to say whether he might slip into category 3. I DO think it’s nice to have veterans – like Rollins – around who are good examples for players who might otherwise slip into category three. I would say, though, that that ranks well below more important concerns like, you know, talent – in building a contending team.
The stuff like the WS pick off, OTOH, are the exception not the rule (and even the best players have occasional mental lapses). In the greater scheme of things, they are difference makers approximately zero percent of the time.
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And if I misconstrued any of your points I apologize and readily admit I only scanned your comment.
I think though players are human beings they don’t always do what they are supposed to and some veterans tend to reach a point in their career where they start to believe they are entitled to do or not do certain things.
A good manager will carefully manage that.
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I just think you’re wrong about veterans (again, always some exceptions).
Look, I KNOW you agree – I mean, obviously – player’s skills start deteriorating in their 30s. Basic human physiology. Not all players suffer deterioration at the same rate- human beings are different* THAT’S what happens with veterans. To posit some additional “X” factor along the lines that you argue … I mean, I can’t DISPROVE it, but it’s pretty much un-testable, and I certainly don’t see any evidence for it.
The exception would be conditioning, where some older players do neglect off season conditioning (and pay the price). Though in the specific case of Rollins that is apparently not an issue. Quite the reverse.
*I’m not the most athletic guy in the world, but am in very good shape for my age (54). That’s 50% hard work, but also 50% good genes. A lot of people my age are less fortunate genetically & have to work much harder to stay in shape.
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And now reading your comment more carefully, it may well be that veterans, after a certain point, CORRECTLY decide that certain things ARE less important for their game preparation. To state an example relevant to Rollins (the only specific criticism aside from the running out grounders critique), maybe he correctly decides that he doesn’t need (say) as much infield practice as he did when younger. (which would make sense)..
IMO, as long as the veteran’s judgment is correct, and as long he DOES do the things which he SHOULD be doing (our old friend conditioning, for example), then there is nothing wrong with that.
Veterans and rookies SHOULD be treated (somewhat) differently. IMO managers that ignore that – who treat veterans the same as they treat rookies – tend to fail (they can make very good minor league managers, though. Hmm).
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C’mon Larry you don’t see any evidence of veterans dogging it? I can give you numerous examples of it. Sheesh. I gave you one from the Movie Money Ball with David Justice and there was also the Giambi trade to the Phillies from the same movie and let’s add the Red Sox cleansing themselves of Beckett, Agone and Crawford.
There isn’t a team in the league that is immune to these types of players I mean essentially isn’t that why the Yankees let Cano walk?
Maybe his instances weren’t out in the media the same way Jimmy’s were and Girardi chose to manage it in his own way but I’m a tree from the forest kind of guy and maybe a bit more intuitive to what is on the surface.
Just because you aren’t reading about it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist and happen more often than we think. Jimminey Crickets you are either being naïve or conveniently ignoring truth to try and bolster your point.
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Boston had some specific and toxic clubhouse issues, but that isn’t the norm and that isn’t the main reason for what went wrong there. As for that specific trade, who knows if that stuff entered into it, but the trade CERTAINLY was more than justifiable from Boston’s perspective even without that factor. i.e., you don’t need to speculate about veterans dogging it to see why that trade was made. The irony here is that it was a very strong trade from a “Moneyball” perspective.
If the Yankees let Cano go for that reason they’re idiots. The more likely possibility is that Yankees are wising up – given his age, the Cano contract was a massive overpay. (The McCann contract was actually pretty team friendly; the Ellsbury contract less so, but the fact that they get BOTH players for the price of Cano has the Yankees looking pretty good.) Cano will deservedly go to the HOF, and the fact that he, like Rollins, doesn’t run out routine grounders means zero against that.
I’m NOT saying it never happens. But in the vast, vast majority of the cases, it’s simple physiology. And in the few cases where it is otherwise, fans are NOT in a position to know that. So yeah it burns me up when fans decide that the normal vicissitudes of aging are evidence of bad character.
And while “fans not in a position to know” cuts both ways, I think there is plenty of circumstantial evidence in Rollins case specifically, and the Phillies decline generally, that the “veterans dogging it” is not true in this case, and an insult to athletes who have given the franchise one of it’s top two best runs.There’s one guy on the team where conditioning MIGHT be an issue in his decline, but even there I think we give him the benefit of the doubt, especially given the reality of normal aging curves and injuries.
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DMAR I agree with you 100%, here’s a question to Larry. Have you ever actually got up off your computer screen and played the game of baseball? Larry and Matt are the reason I stopped coming on this site because of their arrogance and laughably logic about the game of baseball. How are you going to say hustle has never won a title.
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I appreciate that Jim but that’s not my intent. Larry knows a ton about the game and he has played the game. Matt has a ton of sources in the game and between him and Brad we have more Phillies prospect knowledge here in one place than anywhere else on the web.
From time to time however I do believe they get tunnel vision. They have strong opinions and that keeps the site interesting.
We should all strive to look at the game from 360 Degrees. We should strive to look at the game from a distance as much as we look at it up close.
Some say the world has shrunk because of the wealth of information at our fingers tips and the speed and ease to which we can access it. I say it hasn’t really shrunk it is still a big and wide open space with room for many interpretations subjective and objective.
We should challenge one another to see players and prospects from a different POV without it ever being personal or condescending.
If you are here to constantly be right you’re missing the point.
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Boy, that CWater roster is really watered down. They’ll really need some of the LWood games to get moved up midseason to make that team interesting to follow. Right now, they have Parr and that’s it.
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is there a new list somewhere of the guys that were cut this week?
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Look a little deeper, if your not assigned prospect status your not good , everyone of these players are here for a reason. To Move Up. That’s why they call it the minor league, development is what it’s for just be positive and watch. Like Holland’s
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Is this the pain that we are going to suffer from this season? 6-0 lead now 6-4 then having 2nd and 3rd with nobody out and not scoring?
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Cliff with a 18.00 ERA… I guess it can only go down from here. Right?
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apparently not
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I’m not watching the game but Ron Washington knows his shizza and probably knows the scouting report on Lee as well as anyone. My guess they were hunting is FB early in counts.
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Cliff Lee aside, the Philleis are looking good. Good defense, taking walks, and hitting a bit.
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Cody Asche having his coming out party. If this kid can hit 20-25 homers a year, watch out. Stand by prediction – above average regular with some outside chance he’ll be even a bit better.
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This is odd with Asche…he normally starts slow every season.. But one game doesn’t make a season.
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We should have protected Seth Rosin…
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Gee, I missed the entire DM/LarryM debate. Frankly, I think the truth is somewhere in between. Playing the game the right way does matter, but it matters at the margins. When you run out grounders and popups, you will get lucky once or twice a season and get on base through an error. A base you wouldn’t have had if you just loafed to first — both because not running gives the defense time to recover and because running, especially for a fast player, puts extra pressure on the defense. A speedy guy like Revere and Rollins really should run out their balls, because a bobble, a wide throw that pulls the 1B off the bag momentarily, a double-clutch by the fielder or a ball bouncing up in the 1B’s glove may give a base on an error. I think it matters less with a slow runner. How much does it matter. Maybe across the players on a team it is only half a dozen extra runs and a win or two a season. But then, teams miss the playoffs by just a win or two.
I agree that conditioning in the off-season and pre-game and within game stretching to avoid injury is the more important part of playing the game the right way. I don’t believe all vets do this. One part of doing this right is to adapt the off-season routine as you age. It took Utley a while to learn this and nobody tries harder than him to play the game hard and right. Perhaps the team’s coaches/conditioning staff just didn’t guide him correctly or perhaps he thought he knew better.
Sandberg has played the game many seasons and has managed in the minors and coached in Philly. I think one thing he has learned is that it is of great benefit to a player to visibly ‘play the game the right way and do safe hustle — not run through walls hustle. It matters more to the player and the team than it does to the score, because history shows and Sandberg knows that it is a big shaper of how a lot of fans view the player and the team. This is especially important for a team that isn’t doing great and a fading star. It is a way of protecting the player and the team from having the fans and media constantly beating on them. The fans and media may have 90% wrong view, as LarryM says much of hustle and leadership and dirty uniform is a blend of bunkum and subtle racism, but this fan attitude is very real. Can’t fault a manager for encouraging behavior which shows the team and its players in the most favorable light to fans. When you can’t reach the post-season, the aesthetics become even more important. Older stars like Rollins are especially likely to become targets. Just ask Abreu or Schmidt or the not as old Rolen. It’s terribly unfair, but it has to be a consideration in a player’s and manager’s approach to fan PR.
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Schmidt is a great example. Pete Rose was at a church in the Philly area the other night and gave a very interesting take on his relationship with Mike. Did you happen to see it?
Essentially he paraphrases the point I am trying to make which is not all super talents are self motivated to maximize their potential.
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Considering where his attitude and approach have taken him in life — to success, wealth and stardom, but also to banishment and by all accounts a trainwreck and very unhappy personal life — I’m not sure Pete Rose is someone I want to emulate.
And no, I don’t think you can separate the two.
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I think the “learn to pace yourself” stuff applies in-game, too. A guy in his 30s trying to impress people with his hustle on a routine grounder in a five-run game can easily pull a hammy and end up on the DL, and that can cost the team a win, too. How many times have we seen a guy injure himself on a headfirst slide or running into the wall? Was making that catch or beating that throw really worth losing a starter for a month? Probably not.
It’s a moot point, because you probably can’t coach a guy out of those instincts … but the thing is you probably can’t coach him into them either.
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I hate to say this about one of my favorite Phillies ever (along with Rollins and, Schmidt), but one could argue that the lost time from various hustle related injuries outweighs the marginal benefit from Utley’s visible hustle. (Very specifically, his very high HBP totals did have a quantifiable benefit – probably outweighed by the lost games in 2007 from the broken hand.) Not a criticism, really, as it’s impossible to separate the good stuff (insane work ethic, etc.) from the not so good.
But the reverse is true with Rollins – his persona is what it is, and was good enough to make him the best SS in team history. Just as it’s unfair to criticize Utley for sometimes reckless “hustle,” it’s unfair to criticize Rollins for not running out routine grounders.
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I think one of the things you fail to realize is there is an area between busting it down the line on routine grounders as hard as you can and barely jogging down the line. Utley has always busted it down as hard as he could and it could be argued that it has led to his injuries. But if you have watched baseball you know there are times when Cano and Rollins have jogged so slowly to first on routine grounders that it is noticeable. If you run at 75-80% down the line you won’t hurt yourself but you might be safe on a bobbled or dropped ball.
Are these routine grounders almost always an out? Yes. But sometimes they aren’t and if you aren’t willing to go 75-80% down the line then that could be construed as you being lazy.I’m just saying there is a large area between running at 40% and running at 100%.
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Well, that’s putting the best possible light on it. Who knows if that’s what is really going on in Sandberg’s head?
I will say this, you raise a legitimate issue but one where I am not sure I entirely agree. What obligation do ball players have to “put on a show” for the fans, beyond simply performing at their best? I tend to sympathize with what I imagine is the attitude of most veterans – that their obligation is to work hard hard to perform as well as possible to help the team win, not to engage in extraneous “hustle” that doesn’t contribute to winning. This is professional baseball, not a minstrel show.
OTOH, given the salaries that the players are making, I kind of understand the fans perspective also.
But then we have the owners, who (these days especially) are taking in absurd profits without much relation to the product that they put on the field. HERE’S an idea. The owners should be forced to put on a clown show in the middle of the fifth inning to entertain the fans.
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And to be clear, I do understand that you’re making a slightly different point – that the players should cater to the fans for their own sake, to avoid unfair criticism.
But the attitude that some players have – the outspoken Rollins for example (he’s been pretty explicit on this point) – along the lines of “I’m not going to change who I am to satisfy fans who are criticizing me unfairly” – is perfectly legitimate. A guy like Rollins doesn’t need his manager to come along and tell him to run out every routine grounder at full speed just to (or primarily to) please the fans. He’s not stupid, he understands the dynamics of the situation. He’s made a choice, a legitimate on IMO, and it should be respected.
(Adding to this is that, as Rollins likely realizes, it is doubtful that Rollins will change the haters’ minds just by running out a few more routine grounders.).
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“The 25 guys on this team . . . that matters a lot,” he said. “But once you get outside the clubhouse, if you have a good game they are going to love you and if you have a bad game, eh, they might not love you so much. As long as the players in the clubhouse respect me and I respect them and care, that’s what it’s all about.”
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/253297071.html#mxUepfKjYmBpC6m1.99
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Okay, had I read on before responding, I would have seen this and not needed to respond. I will just add that since we are losing again, management is going to over-sell the ‘we’re all trying really, really hard and playing the game the right way, so come here for the honest-to-God, traditional baseball experience, all with recognizable names.’ They don’t have a good team. They can afford to have the fans thinking they have a lazy team.
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I wasn’t suggesting that the players owe it to the fans to put on a super hustle show, a la Pete Rose. That always struck me as gimmickry. Why sprint to 1B on a walk. It would make more sense to slowly limp down the line so the pitcher gets to watch you for a long while and suspect that you couldn’t have made it to first on any ball the SS knocks down. My point is that the players owe a minimum amount of hustle to themselves, in order to avoid grief from fans and the media and for the occasional time it benefits the team. I don’t blame the fans for demanding exhibitions of visible hustle. The Phillies have sold hustle. Since all their announcers beat it to death, including glorifying Pete Rose for an atrocious offensive year for a 1B, while vilifying Abreu and highlighting all the dirty uniforms, it is clear that this is what management wants its broadcast crew to push. It was understandable in the past. The team lost a lot and really the only thing they had was selling how hard they were all trying and how they were all approaching the game the right way. Just bad luck they kept losing.
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Your mention of the announcers raises an interesting point – they certainly could be doing a better job of supporting the players in a way which also could resonate with (and educate) the fans. I don’t mean a stat heavy analytical approach – there are some fans who are NEVER going to warm to that. But why not emphasize all of the hard work that the fans don’t see? These guys are to some extent “insiders” who could credibly talk about the hard work that a guy like Rollins does in the off season to stay in shape, to cite just one example. Add their own experiences (the former players, that is) as to how much work it takes to keep the body going once the player gets into his 30s. That sort of thing.
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My Cody Asche comparison is Scott Brosius. He can hit 15-20 and still be valuable.
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.257 20HR 75 RBI .323 OBP. Good defense and brings a good attitude and approach.
That has value. Picking up my Asche #25 T Shirt at the Majestic store next week.
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Sounds about right to me. Im really excited about what this kid can do. Looks like a really solid player
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That’s pretty good – I think the most likely outcome is somebody like Brosius or Mike Lowell – a guy who is good enough to start on a championship team – not too shabby. If we get super lucky, he’ll be a poor man’s George Brett, with a 60 hit tool instead of Brett’s 75 or 80 hit tool.
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Interesting comp. Brosious, of course, is frustratingly inconsistent, with all star type years surrounded by replacement level seasons. If Asche can perform as well but more consistently, I think we would all be thrilled.(That would make him roughly what I have been saying he will be – a league average regular third baseman. Which has tremendous value.
I think Asche can be a bit better than Brosious as a hitter, though with a somewhat similar hitting profile, but probably not as good defensively. To the extent that those things cancel out, that makes it a pretty good comp.
Of course this wildly optimistic (relative to the “experts”) will likely, as usual be regarded by some around here as unduly pessimistic.
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BTW- I don’t think Jimmy works on improving enough… Anyone else tired of seeing pop ups to 2nd base when he’s ahead in the count?? I agree he is tremendously talented but I can’t say I see I have ever seen an improved approach at the plate from him in the past decade+ Which is why his OBP has always been low for a lead off hitter.
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Only time for a brief (for me) response, but you couldn’t be more wrong:
(1) Defense – sustained improvement from a below average SS when he broke in to a GG SS. This is the strongest evidence, because defense is, at the same time (a) not something that tends to improve without hard work, and (b) is something that CAN be improved with hard work.
(2) Sustained improvement in his hitting from when he broke in to his peak. This took two forms: increased contact rate, something that rarely if ever happens without hard work, and increased HR rate, which could be a combination of hard work and physical growth.
(3) Base running improved significantly from his early years – mainly a function of an improved SB%.
(4) Later striking improvement in his BB rate, rather striking actually, despite the false perception that he was a wild swinger. He’s never been a wild swinger – somewhat aggressive but not exceptionally so, and, on a career basis, his BB rate is league average. One could argue that the increased BB rate was at least partially a result of his increased HR rate – i.e., pitchers showed more respect for him. But to the extent that that is true, it tends to disprove the (false) narrative that he “tried too hard to hit HRs.”
(5) Not an improvement, but to dispel a myth – Rollins did not, through his career, have a problem with pop ups. His pop up rate spiked for one season and then went back down to roughly league average levels, where it had always been.
Look, he’s not a prototypical lead off type. In the modern game, there aren’t many prototypical lead off types (high OBP players tend also to have some or a lot of power). But (a) that’s a much harder aspect of one’s game to change than the casual fan thinks; (b) he DID show substantial improvement in his BB rate from his early seasons through his peak, then declining with age, and (c) he wasn’t the guy making out the line up cards.
WAR isn’t perfect but a good approximation here. For his first 3 full seasons, his WAR total was 5.9. For his peak three consecutive seasons, his WAR total was 16.2. That’s dramatic improvement.
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To clarify a point – his improved BB rate has continued. What I meant to say is that he improved his OBP, though that is now in age related decline.
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Probably should have said average defensively when he broke in, but the point remains, he improved dramatically from that point.
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Anyone know what was wrong with Lee? Dip in velocity?
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Just looking at the pitch fx, his fastball seemed to be mostly 90-91, hit 92 a couple times. Seems about normal to me. He threw a lot of strikes and the rangers managed to put a lot of them in play. I’m not gonna worry about Lee based on this game any more than I’m getting excited about the Phils and their 17 hits.
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When Lee loses command he becomes average. Its just the nature of the beast. Hes elite because command, not because of stuff. I wouldnt worry about it. Its early.
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This game of baseball can be funny. Lee gives up 8 in 5 innings, and gets a victory. How many times has he given up 2 or fewer and ended up with a no-decision or loss?
I don’t think any of us on here have lofty goals for this year, but feeling good after one game. I was not sure if this team would see a winning record all year.
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I was gonna say I wouldn’t mind if he finishes with a 14 ERA and 25 wins but then I remembered we have him on the payroll for another couple years.
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Lee seems to give up a lot of ahead-in-the-count two strike hits. Perhaps its just me seeing that. He doesn’t shake off Ruiz very often, so in the end, its his call on the pitch for the most part.
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Although I’m not generally a fan of the analysis you get on WIP’s morning show (which is essentially no analysis at all), Al Morganti is correct that Lee does not throw enough balls ahead in the count. When he’s ahead, he should be throwing some pitches just outside of the strike zone to induce swings and misses or poor contact. But that’s not Lee’s game and I wouldn’t expect him to change as long as he is generally having success, although I believe that throwing select pitches out of the zone would make him that much better.
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where are watson and gueller playing?
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Watson is injured until August.
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And Gueller is going back to Williamsport, the way it looks. He’s not on the Lakewood roster, so a repeat of WIL seems likely.
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Congrats to JRol on breaking the record for most consecutive opening day starts at ss for the same team(14) and his 200th hr. I am one who has been critical of him for not running hard all the time. I believe some of this is due to him having a lot of hamstring issues early in his career. I find Jimmy’s quote in the philly paper today interesting, ‘my momma didn’t raise me to be no soft dude”. Maybe this has more to do with him not hustling all the time then anything else. I was in attendance at the church Pete Rose was interviewed at this past Sunday. Pete shared that very early in his career he hit a soft grounder to second on a pitch he felt he should have driven somewhere and didn’t run hard to first. After the game his father was waiting for him at his car. Pete asked him if something was wrong and his dad asked him if he ran hard to first on the grounder to second. Pete replied “I don’t think so” and his dad responded, ” don’t you ever embarrass me like that again!” I recall Dom Brown having a similar conversation with his dad after not running hard to first. Maybe that is why Jimmy didn’t get it when Charlie told him his lack of hustle was a reflection on him(Charlie). I am not sure of Jimmy’s relationship with his father. That being said, Jimmy does always shows up in shape and has put together a very good career.
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It’s funny about effort in baseball. For various reasons, psychologically, we want to see our baseball players try as hard as possible because: (a) the sport only requires periodic bursts of effort (so, we think, how hard can it be to try your best on those isolated plays?); and (b) it’s a sport where we know that dedication and effort off the field are key and, therefore, if we see a lack of effort on the field we wonder to ourselves if that effort is occuring off the field.
That said, I mostly agree with Larry that, with long established players, this is probably mostly a mirage. You are not going to have a long major league career without a fair bit of effort and hard work, although I think many talented players could be that much better if they planned and played harder. Personally, unless you throw like 100 MPH as a reliever or have perfect natural command, I think it’s almost impossible to have a successful pitching career without being hard-working, attentive to detail, motivated and mission focused – it’s just too easy to screw up. But with hitters, even major leaguers, I think there are enormous differences in natural talent that allows some players to be great even if they are not in the best shape, not particularly focused at all times and not motivated to work at their game but by virtue of their sheer talent, they excel anyway.
The two best examples of this are both Yankees – Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle. I think both guys played hard and worked hard when they were at the ballpark. But off the field they ate and drank and lived like wild men – not just for a little while, but for essentially their entire careers. But they were just so incredibly talented that it almost didn’t matter – they excelled anyway. Yes, they were outliers, but you see examples constantly of players (almost all position players, but occasionally short relievers too) who are so talented that they excel even if they don’t always do what they should off the field or give it their all on the field.
But with Jimmy, yes, there’s some frustration but I think he’s well prepared and hard working. He’s only the best shortstop in franchise history, so can we stop dwelling on his shortcomings and appreciate him for what he is and has been?
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Pete is a very interesting fellow. He and Mike were polar opposites of one another and to this day Mike champions for his induction into the HOF.
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Rose is an example of a guy who combined the two types (yes, I’m oversimplifying) of so called “playing the game right” characteristics – the legitimate aspect (he obviously worked his butt off to get the most out of his skill set) and the overrated at best visible hustle aspect. I think it’s partly because of him that people assume that the two are often or always correlated. They aren’t.
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I do think the juxtaposition of those two players is telling, and part of what I’m trying to say. Rose gets (or got) all the credit for great “make up,” the whole “Charlie hustle” persona. And, despite what happened later, despite the relative uselessness of the most visible part of that person, and despite the fact that he was sort of a jerk, he DESERVED that reputation, for the most part.
But so did Schmidt, yet he never really had that reputation, and was unfairly vilified by a portion of the Philadelphia fan base.
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And Schmidt gave All Star (really HOF) quality performance for a 3B for us in Philly. Rose was well below All Star caliber 1B during his time in Philly. Owners and our TV carrier paid a lot to bring him to Philly, so they hyped the hell out of the guy, but as a 1B he really wasn’t all that great offensively. He came to Philly at the same time he was forced to complete his slide down the defensive positional spectrum.
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Oops, read across the table wrong. 1980 was a negative WAR year for Rose. His good year was 1979. His whole stay in Philly produced a total WAR of about 1.5
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Of course the narrative is “Pete Rose was the missing ingredient that brought us the WS championship.” Not true, but indelibly ingrained in the minds of a generation of fans.
The truth is that the team was at its peak in 1976-78, but anything can happen in a seven game series. AND of course 1980 provided a juxtaposition of exceptional even by their own standards regular seasons by Schmidt and Carlton, The team was very ordinary otherwise, including, of course, Rose.
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So when Rose says in a live interview Mike was the best player in the game 3 nights a week and I helped him become the best player in the game 5-6 nights a week you say…
Wait never mind forget I asked to you these are just a bunch of robots running around performing to a predisposed statistical software program.
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Wasn’t knocking Rose – was knocking the media/fan narrative, which does exist and which is unfair to Schmidt (and to other Phillies from that era to a lesser extent)..
Rose … I’m more sympathetic than many are to him. Part of that is never fully buying the “Charlie Hustle” persona, so not feeling betrayed when it became evident he had … issues. In some ways he got a raw deal from the commissioner’s office.
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And no, I’m not buying what Rose is selling in that interview. At all.
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Okay, this has been an interesting discussion in which people have made varied good points, and we have even found some common ground, generally and with regard to Rollins.
But the Pete Rose/Dad story made me want to throw up, and had the opposite intended effect – further reinforcing my disdain for visible hustle.
And knowing how the story eventually played out does IMO put a darker spin on the anecdote. Would have been interesting if the interviewer had followed up with the obvious follow-up question.
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Did Dom Brown’s dad make you want to throw up?
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Where is Drew Anderson playing this year?
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He’s rehabbing something right now – can’t recall what. I would guess he’s ticketed for Lakewood when he returns.
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Spent too much time here today already, and I guess some of you are sick of hearing about Rollins. But wanted to comment briefly on one issue.
Sandberg’s post game comment about the Rollins’ HR was highly objectionable; I like Sandberg less every day (Bowa OTOH said some good things). But let’s talk specifically about the issue Sandberg keeps harping on, line drives.
First, Rollins is not by any means an extreme fly ball hitter. His line drive percentages are around league average. Secondly, the trade off isn’t always clear. That is, a better line drive percentage, all else equal, is always good, but all else is rarely equal. Changing swings is not always as straightforward as one might think. It’s quite possible that trying to alter a swing that a player is familiar with might do more harm than good.
And it’s POSSIBLE that that is what happened last year. Rollins DID increase his LD% to 23.6%, above his career mark and above league average. And he DID improve his BABIP to .288, his best since 2008. HIs BA was even up a tiny bit despite also having a lower contact rate. But of course it was a horrible season for him, mainly because his HR rate plummeted.
And maybe all of this is a coincidence. But IF Rollins was trying to alter his swing to generate more line drives, and IF it explains (even partially) his decreased power (and maybe even increased K rate), then it was a horrible trade off, even for a lead off hitter. (And of course last night was just one example of why power in a lead off hitter is not wasted.)
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Just for fun were you a middle child? You are so grumpy.
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That’s my excuse 🙂
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Not a middle child. Am a grump.
But IMO with reason here. Even if you think Sandberg is right (in whole or part), going public with it is inappropriate, and a crappy way to treat a player who has contributed as much to the franchise as Rollins has. Especially given the fraught relationship Rollins has had with the fans. Sandberg is just adding fuel to that fire.
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There you go again with right and wrong. This is professional baseball. These are big boys. They can handle it.
History will judge Jimmy fairly and he will get everything he deserves. He will be recognized in Asburn Alley with all the other greats. He will get a standing ovation from the fans and be remembered fondly. He will be considered for the HOF and in my opinion he will get in.
Hasn’t history taught you anything about our relationships with our players? Heck there is a laundry list of great talents to come through this town that weren’t universally loved during their playing days. Don’t feel compelled to stick up for Jimmy it’s just as silly as the guys that want to harp on his pop-ups.
As for Sandberg he has earned is way here. He is no chump. I’m going to recognize that he is going to make some mistakes but I don’t sense any big ego with the guy so let’s wait and see if he learns from them.
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Will you be going to Cooperstown for Jimmy’s induction ceremony? Wear your red.
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As much as I like him as a player, he’s not quite good enough for the HOF. If he had been able to string together a couple of more seasons like 2007, or extend his peak years longer, he might have a case.
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In fairness to Rollins. he though will have numbers in 2/3 season with his standard production that equates to past shortstops who are in the HoF.
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Yeah. Not interested in a detailed comp right now, but those guys fall into one or more of the following categories:
(1) Selling something other than career production (e.g., defense or peak value);
(2) Better hitters in context; and/or
(3) Are marginal HOFers or worse.
Don’t get me wrong, there are worse players int he HOF. He just falls a little short.
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Just breifly…FWIW, of the 21 shortstops in the HoF, Jimmy Rollins has more hits now then 9 of them at 2176 and he could be in the top 7 if he gets 150 hits over the next 2/3 seasons..
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Agreed, unless he has an incredible late career renaissance (not likely, but it’s remotely possible), he’s not going to get in. He’s nowhere near the player Trammell was and Trammell’s not in.
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I love this guy.
Ryno is sitting Asche tonight, batting Howard 5th, Cesar is at 2nd and Chase is DHing.
The HoF player, coaches LaRussique.
He setting a tone.
Dare he to take a risk with Ruben’s team!
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Question I’m too lazy to research. Where do Rollins & Utley rank on the list of longest keystone combination? Obviously not particularly close to the ridiculous Trammel/Whitaker run, but are they second? Gantner/Yount and Morgan/Concepcion spring to mind, but I think Utley/Rollins is a little ahead of the former and significantly ahead of the latter. In seasons, at least – not sure about games. Cano and Jeter obviously are contemporaries that fall a little short.
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LarryM….from CBSSports Data Files:
COMBINATION (SS,2B) TEAM YEARS SS BWAR 2B BWAR TOTAL BWAR
Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker 1978-95 68.9 71.6 140.5
Pee Wee Reese*, Jackie Robinson* 1947-56 47.6 58.7 106.3
Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley 2003-12 35.9 53.5 89.4
Dave Concepcion, Joe Morgan* 1972-79 27.3 56.7 84
Billy Rogell, Charlie Gehringer* 1930-39 22.7 59.3 82
Honus Wagner*, Claude Ritchey 1900-06 54.4 23.3 77.7
Joe Tinker*, Johnny Evers* 1902-12 42.8 34.5 77.3
Jack Berry, Eddie Collins* 1908-15 20.9 53 73.9
Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano 2005-12 26.5 34.8 61.3
Luis Aparicio*, Nellie Fox* 1956-62 20.8 24 44.8
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Thanks! Interesting stuff.
IMO Utley has a much stronger case than Rollins. He definitely falls short on counting stats, a big deal historically. (he could mitigate that a little if his knees hold up for 3 or 4 more years). He does very well of course by modern metrics, especially on peak value.
The issue in terms of the voters (I think he is a long shot) is how much weight they put on defensive metrics. He ranks so well overall in part because his defensive metrics are so good. This obviously clashes with people’s subjective observations, as evidenced by his lack of GGs. The rest of the profile, as good as it is, isn’t quite good enough unless you buy the defensive metrics.
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They play together for two more years…they will probably end up as the 2nd best combo in MLB history, well as far as length of service.together Hard to beat Pee Wee Reese and Jackie Robinson, both are HoFs and their fame and mark in history, are images that are hard to top.
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I think it’s all about the counting stats for him. He’s 12th all time among 2B in wRC+, and 4 of the guys in front of him played in less than 500 games.
All the guys in front of him are in the HOF too, except Bobby Grich but I would guess that has something to do with his career .266 BA. Historically, that would be held against him. Obviously, many of the Hall voters don’t give a crap about wRC+, but the traditional stats Utley puts up along the way should look pretty good to them. That’s if he stays productive a little longer.
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One day, and hopefully one day soon, somebody is going to wake up and realize what a freaking crime it is that neither Whitaker or Trammell is in the HOF when both deserve to be in. Both players should ultimately be beneficiaries of modern SABRmetrics which confirms their greatness. If those guys had played in New York or Chicago or even Philly or L.A., they would have both been in already.
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And the Tigers had won a few championships along the way and they were in the running for MVP awards….that helps for recognition purposes.
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There’s definitely a bias against guys who do everything pretty well, but don’t have one elite skill. It’s one of the reasons Utley might not get in. Trammell especially deserves it. He had a peak where he was legitimately one of the better players in the game. Whitaker was never quite on that level, though he had an amazing 13 seasons where he was between 3.5 and 5.5 WAR.
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Don’t have the time today to post as much as yesterday. Plan to post later, maybe tonight, on two interesting aspects of Rollins/Utley’s careers. The short version
-Rollins and Jeter are an interesting comp. Jeter, of course, is HOF bound, Rollins probably not. And Jeter DOES have a stronger case for sure. But Rollins has some distinct advantages over Jeter (defense, base running, power, contact ability) Jeter, of course, has advantages of his own which outweigh those. Interestingly, Jeter’s longer career aside, his biggest advantage (a huge one) is BABIP – .353 (9th best in baseball history, 4000+ PA, and all but one of the players in front of him played before 1940) versus a subpar.287. If both had a .300 BABIP, Roliins would be the better player. That’s a real advantage for Jeter – I’m not saying it is “luck,” over that many AB it is skill. More on that later.
-The Oliver projection system projects some pretty good numbers for Utley over the next 5 years (e.g., 12 WAR, 77 HR), good enough to boost his career stats significantly. Of course his rate stats will suffer a bit, but if Oliver is right, his HOF case will be much better. I tend to think Utley’s knees will prevent him from doing quite so well. Again, more later.
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Okay, one more quick point: the BABIP data may, at first glance, seem to support the “yes, Rollins should have tired a more line drive swing.” Except that it doesn’t. Rollins’ career line drive % is actually a tad higher than Jeter’s. Jeter does have a somehat higher infield hit rate (probably mainly because he bats right rather than both), but that is not nearly enough to explain the huge difference. He also has a higher ground ball rate (which may also help explain the higher infield hit rate), but since the BA on GB isn’t that much higher than the BA on fly balls, that again explains little of the difference.
Not sure ultimately what the main cause of the difference it. Jeter is just one of the best players ever int his regard – Rollins’ failure to match (or even come close to) that is hardly a criticism.
Again, more later time permitting.
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By the way, fly balls are more efficient offensively than ground balls – a slightly higher BA is outweighed by HRs.
Okay, get to work Larry!!!!!
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I was sitting here, noticing that you posted comments at 10:51, 11:06, and 11:11, wondering how you have time to turn your attention from work for that period.
I then reminded myself that I have been reading many of the comments over a similar duration, and I too need to be more productive.
You know those studies that say March Madness has a $X million dollar loss of productivity at the workplace. I would image that the beginning of baseball season would have a similar impact (the 2 of us are guilty) 🙂
Back to work for me.
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WesChamberlain….try Dragon Naturally Speaking. Then you will not miss any fun at work.
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Well in fairness I am MST, so I was basically getting some comments in before a (slightly late) start to my work day).
But yeah, I need to stop being distracted.
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I have some longish thoughts on BABIP, but again I don’t want to distract myself from work today (taking a quick break). But briefly on the Utley question, if the Oliver projections are right, he’ll end up with over 2,000 hits, 1,194 runs, 1,139 RBIS, 294 HRs and 67.1 fWAR. Not the kind of career stats that would put him in the HOF by themselves, but good enough that, with his peak, he would have a shot.
Again, i think the chances he sticks around that long & remains healthy are low, and even then you would still need voters to put a lot of weight on the defensive metrics. I do think he may well end up with over 1000 runs and RBIs, over 250 HR, and close to 65 WAR (he’ll likely fall short of 2000 hits). Those are some decent milestones considering his relatively short career (by HOF standards).
Side issue here – people assume that voters don’t consider WAR. For better or worse (even I think that it might not be for the best), I think that increasingly the younger voters ARE considering WAR (and other, more appropriate, advanced metrics).
Finally, IMO his peak is good enough that I’d put him in pretty much regardless of what he does over the remainder of his career. I tends to be a “big hall” advocate, and I prefer peak to career totals (while not ignoring career totals). There are very few if any players at any position with a 5 year peak as good as his who are not in the HOF.
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By the way, it’s been interesting watching Mario Hollands, last night’s jittery debut notwithstanding. He does have good stuff (decpetive and nice velocity for a lefty, sitting 92 and 93 and hitting 94), which is amazing because when I saw him pitch in Reading in early 2012, he was dreadful. Pitches sat between 88-90, occasionally touching 91, he was laboring and he just looked like a wasted pick and now look what he’s doing. Pitching is so strangely unpredictable.
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I think Mario Hollands lost some weight …major weight….from what he looked like a few years ago. Did he?
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I wonder how much of that is because he’s relieving now as opposed to (mostly) being a starter. His minor league performance was never really notable but, with his delivery, I can see him being an effective LOOGY. Hopefully those jitters are behind him and the good control he showed in the minors will carry over to the majors from now on.
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I don’t recall him being heavier in 2012 but I could be wrong. It looks like Hollands began to get serious traction last year, but, like others, I ignored it because he was going down a level to achieve success. Typically, guys like that don’t end up in the majors the following spring, but the stuff appears to be real and, if he can retain command, he’s a nice 6th or 7th inning guy.
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Pettibone pitched last night. He did hit 93mph velo. Threw 70 plus pitches.He struggled, said his mechanics were off a bit…he knows what he has to do to correct in upcoming bullpen sessions. So here’s hoping he will be fully back by May.
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Honestly, the ONLY thing I care about with Pettibone right now is that he is not hurting and his velocity is good. If he can throw in the low to mid 90s with regularity, he could develop into a servicable 3 over time and a decent 4 or 5 perhaps this year, which would be huge for this club.
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I guess I care about two things, eh? I ought to read what I write before I post.
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Release Paplebon.
I realize it is an emotional response, not a (wholly) logical one, but it is not an emotional response born of a single inning. It is based upon his two plus years with the Phillies, and his frankly obnoxious persona (why Philly fans can’t reserve their ire for the few real jerks on its professional teams is a mystery).
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Um how much money would they lose though? I don’t think he is a non-asset enough to be straight up released without saving a significant amount of money. Embarrassing game though, we didn’t sign him for this.
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Well I did say it was emotional. But I do think there is a decent chance – maybe even 1 on 3 – that I is a complete non-asset going forward. He looks cooked.
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After a few more of these ‘blow-ups’….then the standard procedure….DL for some concerning lingering arm ailment. Then a period of rehab.
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I really didn’t even pay attention to the end of the game. I knew after the second batter that they were going to lose the game. To me, one thing that distinguishes the great managers from the okay or bad managers is the ability to recognize players for what they really are and adjust accordingly. If Sandberg spends three months using Papelbon as a closer, even if he has a 6 ERA, it will be literally impossible for this team to overcome the odds and compete for a playoff spot (I still don’t forgive Jim Fregosi, may he rest in peace, for using Mitch Williams in Game 6 of the 1993 WS when it was clear that Williams had nothing left and Tommy Greene was warmed in the bullpen). This is one of Sandberg’s early tests – and there will be plenty more where that came from.
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Papelbon is Billy Wagner all over again without the talent. This was one of the worst free agent signings in Philadelphia history.
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He has become a real momentum killer. Gotta think Sanberg is not to happy with his blaming infielders.
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I do not like Papelbon, at all, but how did Sandberg/Bowa not play for a double play in that situation? There was managerial mismanagement with the Bullpen the night before. And, I do not defend Jimmy but I didn’t like how Sandberg handled him in Spring Training, either.
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I am, obviously, critical of Sandberg when called for – I do question his use of relievers in the first two games, for example. But with regard to this particular decision, keep in mind that Martin is very fast and rarely grounds into a DP. The most notable aspect of the play was Papelbon’s failure to take responsibility for his poor performance, along with his melt down after the play.
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A closer, IMO, needs to get the first batter out….especially when a batter, in this case a star like Beltre, has two strikes….what the heck! Who calls the ahead-in-the-count next pitch? Batters have different pyche with two strikes
Then his loss of poise and composure with the ‘defensive’ play/alignment.
Phillies have this year and next year with Paps.
If this continues from Papelbon, Sandberg I am sure will want to have a sit down with Ruben.
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You are correct there. No excuse for the meltdown, and no excuse for throwing team under bus. Also, does not change the fact that his fastball keeps getting slower.
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Cheer up! There’s a full slate of milb tonight.
Maybe we can challenge RAJ’s decision to sign him and get a reversal.
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BABIP …
We understand BIP as related to pitchers pretty well:
(1) We know that most pitchers, over a sufficient sample size, have little control over whether a BIP results in an out or hit.
(2) We have a pretty good idea of the types of pitchers that are an exception to this rule.
Our understanding regarding hitters is more limited:
(1) We know that extreme BABIPs, especially in small sample sizes, are almost always unsustainable and are strong indications that the player’s BA will normalize over time.
(2) We know that hitters have more control than pitchers over whether a BIP results in a hit, but that most players cluster in a fairly narrow range (around .280 to .320) in BABIP over a sufficient sample size.
(3) We have some rudimentary ideas about what types of players have a better (or worse) than average BABIP.
It’s that last point that I want to talk about. And I’m going to use Jeter to frame the debate. Jeter is the BABIP champ of his generation. He is, along with Rod Carew, the BABIP champ of the last 70 years. (I’m excluding some players with insufficient sample sizes. Votto fell just under my arbitrary PA limit (though his BABIP will decline with age). Trout has even better BABIP data.)
So .. what we think we know: a high BABIP reults from: (a) a high line drive rate; and (b) a high infield hit rate. Except that the former is less true than one would think, and the latter explains only a small part of the variance. The first point – there are studies (I don’t have a
link) showing that the correlation between high line drive rates and BIBIP, while it does exist, is lower than one would expect, give the fact that, league wide, batting averages on line drives are so much higher than batting averages on ground balls and fly balls. As for the second point, I haven’t seen studies, but just eyeballing the data, most high BABIP players do not have particularly good infield hit rates. There seems to be a relationship, but not as strong as one would think.
Looking at Jeter specifically, his line drive rate is roughly average; his infield hit rate is well above average, but not by nearly enough to explain his insanely high BABIP.
This is an area that demands further study. If anyone knows of a study that I missed, please tell me. I will, however, engage in some informed speculation, some of which will probably sound like obvious “traditional” baseball knowledge.
(1) Hitting the ball hard (“good contact”) – perhaps very obvious, and, again eyeballing the data, certainly appears to be a factor. But again with Jeter – he makes good contact, but if one were to list the hardest hitting players of his generation, he probably wouldn’t be on the list.
(2) Height – speculative, and, if true, perhaps true because taller players tend to hit the ball harder. Jeter is about average here (for baseball players).
(3) Low infield fly percentage – true by definition. It would be interesting to look more closely at players who have good infield fly data. One would expect a high correlations with players with ground ball tendencies, but a few fly ball players have good or very good infield fly data (see Mike Trout for example). Jeter has very good infield fly data.
(4) Good bat control – again speculative. Contrary to “traditional” baseball wisdom, I’m skeptical that many/most players can “place” the ball reliably (though some players are better than others at using the whole field), but some players do seem to have this skill. I don’t picture Jeter as being exceptional in this regard, but maybe I am wrong about that.
(5) Ground ball hitters – the BABIP on ground balls is not great compared to the BABIP on line drives, but is a little better than the rate on
fly balls (outweighed by lost HR, but I’m focusing in BABIP only in this comment). Jeter fits the bill on this, but again a small factor.
What else am I missing? Which of these are most important? To bring this back to Jeter, I don’t see enough here to fully explain the historically high BABIP. He ticks several of the above boxes, but IMO not enough to explain why he was SO good in this respect.
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What’s really needed here is a multiple regression study. I did list the top 10 players in BABIP over the past 15 years (min 2000 PA). It’s dominated by younger, active players whose BABIP will decline over time, but is still an interesting list. What the players have in common is approximately nothing, except of course they all tend to be very good hitters (the worst of them are Fowler and Austin Jackson, both IMO due for BABIP regression. Both are still good hitter of course). They do all check multiple boxes in my list of factors above. They all have at least mid-range power (lowest ISO is Jeter at .135), helping to explain the death of the “traditional” high OBP, low SLG prototypical lead off hitter.
One thing I looked at numerically, as opposed to just eyeballing, was height. They do most tend to be tall, though not much taller than the MLB average (just over 6’2″). Only one is under 6 feet (Choo at 5’11”).
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what is Jeter’s strike out rate?
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14.7% on a career basis, good but not exceptional (not as good as Rollins, e.g.,).
You wouldn’t expect K rate to have anything to do with BABIP, and as far as I can tell it doesn’t. Obviously both are related to (in fact, between them mostly determine) BA. The only other significant factor in BA is HRs (BA on HRs is obviously 1.000).
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I think most players not named Howard can determine where there batted balls go with a high enough frequency to defeat the shift. Those who can’t, routinely have the shift employed against them and their BABIP will decline as a result. I have no idea how you are defining hitting the ball hard, with respect to Jeter. I don’t like the Yankees and have only watched them in post-season or when they play against the Phillies, so I don’t know a heck of a lot about Jeter. I will say this, though, I don’t think there is any correlation between what is generally thought of as power — HR frequency and how much your HRs leave the park by — and the sort of good contact, which regularly hits the ball with the sweet part of the bat, resulting in harder hit ground balls, with a greater chance of going through the IF. Certainly guys who can deliberately hit down the 3B line or into the SS hole have a greater chance at IF singles than guys who can’t, but I agree with you that very few hitters are likely to possess this sort of bat control. Certainly very fast runners, so this doesn’t include Jeter, have a greater chance at IF hits. All things being equal, left handed hitters have a slight advantage on IF hits. Apart from a shift, a guy who hits grounders all over the IF is going to pose a tougher job in properly positioning IF, so he will have a slight BABIP advantage on ground balls. Obviously, if the other teams in your division are poor fielding teams (as in limited range, not error rate) that helps your BABIP rate. I think swinging at hittable pitches should substantially boost a hitters BABIP. Very few of the low and outside breaking balls that Howard is so prone to swinging at are going to result in a hit, even if the ball is put in play. It might be interesting to try to correlate BABIP with total extra bases minus HR. Just as a HR isn’t fieldable, neither is a ball off the fence or a hard enough line drive to split the fielders and go for a double or triple.
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Lots of interesting points here, some of which I think are likely correct, some at least plausible. Food for thought.
But, with regard to Howard, your theories don’t really account for the fact that he has a very good BABIP on a career basis: .324, well above average It has declined a bit over time, and that fact COULD be related to the shift, likely is to some extent, but the data is murky – he’s been up and down in BABIP over the years, even as the overall trend is somewhat downward – last year (SSS of course) he was at .349.
His line drive data is quite good, his infield fly rate quite low, and his infield hit rate not as bad as I would have expected.
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And I’m not even saying that that makes you wrong, necessarily. Maybe his positives simply outweigh the negatives. Certainly it is almost certain that his inability to beat the shift has hurt his BABIP.
But I do think there may be a significant correlation between power and a high BABIP … I can think of some reasons why that might be, but want to let my thoughts percolate before I speculate.
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Oh, and left handed hitters having an advantage on IF hits? I’ve seen some data actually showing the reverse – though it was close enough that it was unlikely to be statistically significant. Though there are logical reasons why right handed hitters might have an advantage. See http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-advantage-of-batting-left-handed/. I would also think that the orientation of a right handed hitter (closer to facing first base) might enter into it as well.
I know that the baseball traditionalists around here will likely see this as blasphemy.
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Interesting…some clubs favor making pure right-handed hitting speedy guys into switch-hitters at their earliest professional beginning. And there are other clubs, that let the player stay on at his natural side.
Personally, I would have let Roman Quinn stay as a righty and take all his PAs and practice cuts from his natural side, ilo of splitting his time and efforst between both sides.
But the Phillies must know what they are doing, they have had success in the past.
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Say what you will, SSS and all, but so far hitting and starting pitching (Lee excepted, and one would assume he will come around). have looked real good.
Not to be Mr. negative (yeah, I know), but I guess the worry is that they hang out around .500 all season and end up buyers rather than sellers at the deadline. Still don’t see then as a playoff team.
And oy, the bullpen … though fine so far today (hope I didn’t just jinx them for the bottom of the ninth).
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Things are quiet around here. Too quiet.
More on Utley …. the following will probably be rejected by those suspicious of WAR, especially since it involves yet another arguable calculation on top of raw WAR. But, using a formula which considers both career WAR and peak WAR, Utley ranks as the 13th best second baseman ever: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml
The two players ahead of him who aren’t in the HOF (Whitaker and Grich) probably should be in, and there are at least 10 lower ranked second basemen who are in. Moreover, since WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat, he’s likely to climb somewhat on the list before he retires – he could even slip into the top 10.
Just to make clear the extent to which his relatively short career handicaps him, all but one of the guys in front of him have over 2000 games played, while Utley has has just over 1300. The one exception has 1382 and an obvious asterisk. All of the HOFers have more games than him, most are over 1900. The only players under 1700 games are Robinson, and Miller Huggins who of course is in as a manager.
On seven year peak (Utley would do better on 5 year peak) Utley is 8th all time. All of the people in front of him are no-doubt HOFers. Interestingly, 4 of them played pre-integration; the other 3 are Robinson, Morgan and Carew. That’s pretty darn good company.
Finally, the similarities between he and his manager are fairly striking. Sandberg has a much longer career, but the configuration of their hitting numbers is quite similar (with Utley a little ahead). There seven year peaks are similar in value; Sandberg has more career value, but not by a whole lot based on WAR.
Note tha above uses rWAR, not fWAR, but both systems assign about the same value to Utley.
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That system doesn’t like Rollins nearly as much – ranking him 38th of all time among shortstops. That’s still pretty darn good. He ranks just a little below HOFers Maranville and Rizzutto, both of whom he can pass if he has a couple more seasons as even an average regular.
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Really having some fun playing around with those rankings. At third base, Schmidt of course is first, but interestingly Beltre is 8th and Rolen 10th. Both players are helped because modern defensive metrics like their defense a lot. Of course both players had/have a good defensive rep, but the metrics like them even better than their reputations.
Booby Abreu ranks a respectable 18th all time among right fielders, ahead of about a dozen HOFers..
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Lee back to his old self.
And Chase Utley – what more is there to say? I know it isn’t logical for me to think this, but I have this vision of him playing 4 more solid years as a Phillie at an all star level – a late in life career revival.
And wow, a one two three inning from Papelbon. A few more of those and maybe we can find a sucker to take him off our hands for a bag of used baseballs.
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LarryM….Lee was consistent but similar as the Ranger game…almost identical splits….only difference….replace Rizzo, Alt, and Lake with Fielder, Beltre and Choo respectively, and the results could be a bit altered.
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Taking nothing from Lee, but the Cubbies obviuosly, are right now a weaker hitting club then the Rangers.
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Interesting that Howard looks better at the plate but in yesterday’s game he was brutal at first. No range or reaction time evident.
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Scary watching Paplebon, hitting 89-90 and couldn’t control splitter, hope its the weather, maybe in warmer weather velocity will increase, but only a hope. I wonder why Sandberg would take out a pitcher with two outs and no one on bases with five run lead, that one has me, no logic except he wanted to give Manship some work? and that makes no sense, one batter. I think Diekman will eventually close, with better control and more confidence he really imo, has good stuff.
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Sandberg did say that he wouldn’t normally take the pitcher out in that situation but that he wanted to get Manship in.
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thanks, I missed that statement from sandberg.
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Burnett doesn’t have it today in Chicago.
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