With the major league club falling apart (almost literally), it turns to the minor league system to provide the optimism in 2014. The problem is that the farm system is not good right now. Ranking wise, it has been as high as 14, but for the most part it settles in the 20-25 range. The good news is that it is trending up and with the right set of circumstances it could come close to the top farm systems in the game.
Lets start by looking at the makeup of the Top 5 farm systems in Baseball America’s Handbook (Top 100 rankings included, these rankings may differ due to the BA ranking process).
| Pirates | Red Sox | Twins | Cubs | Astros |
| Gregory Polanco (10) | Xander Bogaerts (2) | Byron Buxton (1) | Javier Baez (5) | Carlos Correa (7) |
| Jameson Tallion (22) | Henry Owens (40) | Miguel Sano (6) | Kris Bryant (8) | George Springer (18) |
| Tyler Glasnow (46) | Jackie Bradley (50) | Alex Meyer (45) | CJ Edwards (28) | Mark Appel (39) |
| Austin Meadows (49) | Allen Webster (88) | Kohl Stewart (52) | Albert Almora (36) | Mike Foltynewicz (59) |
| Nick Kingham (64) | Blake Swihart (73) | J.O. Berrios | Jorge Soler (41) | Lance McCullers (77) |
| Alen Hanson (76) | Garin Cecchini (74) | Eddie Rosario | Pierce Johnson (87) | Vince Velasquez |
| Josh Bell | Mookie Betts (75) | Lewis Thorpe | Arismendy Alcantara (100) | Jonathan Singleton (82) |
| Reese McGuire (81) | Brandon Workman | Trevor May | Jeimer Candelario | Domingo Santana |
| Harold Ramirez | Matt Barnes | Danny Santana | Dan Vogelbach | Michael Feliz |
| Luis Heredia | Trey Ball (89) | Jorge Polanco | Arodys Vizcaino | Asher Wojciechowski |
So what are the common themes?
Have a Stud: What jumps out immediately is that each farm system starts with a Top 10 prospect. As we have seen with the prevalence of WAR as a measurement of value, the gap from a top player to an average player is large and so having a player that profiles as a near elite player is a good start to the farm system.
Depth: Only the Twins on this list have fewer than 6 Top 100 prospects. Farm systems with a depth of talent can really separate themselves from the pack. Those back of the Top 100 players may be high upside players still a way off or they could be above average regulars just waiting for a spot in the majors. Either way that is high upside value right there. More than just Top 100 prospects, these systems go deep on legitimate prospects down into the 30s and 40s. This gives the potential for continued growth and development.
High Draft Picks: THe Red Sox list lacks the very top of the draft type picks of the other lists, but it is deep in first round picks. More than anything else, you need to be making those picks and developing the players you pick there.
Now that we have looked at the top systems in baseball, lets look at some practical examples of teams that have made the rankings jump from the bottom half to the upper echelon of farm systems.
| Royals | Diamondbacks | Blue Jays | Marlins | |||||
| Year | 2010 | 2011 | 2011 | 2012 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
| Rank | 17 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 28 | 5 |
| 1 | Mike Montgomery (39) | Eric Hosmer (8) | Jarrod Parker (33) | Trevor Bauer (9) | Zach Stewart | Kyle Drabek (29) | Christian Yelich (41) | Jose Fernandez (5) |
| 2 | Aaron Crow (40) | Wil Myers (10) | Tyler Skaggs (82) | Archie Bradley (25) | J.P. Arencibia | Deck McGuire (95) | Marcell Ozuna | Christian Yelich (15) |
| 3 | Wil Myers | Mike Moustakas (9) | Matt Davidson (99) | Tyler Skaggs (13) | Chad Jenkins | Anthony Gose | Jose Fernandez | Andrew Heaney (43) |
| 4 | Mike Moustakas (80) | John Lamb (18) | Chris Owings | Jarrod Parker (26) | David Cooper | Travis d’Arnaud (36) | Matt Dominguez | Jake Marisnick (64) |
| 5 | Eric Hosmer | Mike Montgomery (19) | Marc Krauss | Matt Davidson (97) | Henderson Alvarez | Zach Stewart | J.T. Realmuto | Marcell Ozuna (75) |
| 6 | Tim Melville | Christian Colon (51) | A.J. Pollock | A.J. Pollock | Jake Marisnick | Asher Wojciechowski | Chad James | Justin Nicolino (86) |
| 7 | John Lamb | Danny Duffy (68) | Bryan Borchering | David Homberg | Josh Roenicke | J.P. Arencibia | Rob Rasmussen | Adeiny Hechavarria |
| 8 | Danny Duffy | Chris Dwyer (83) | Wade Miley | Chris Owings | Brad Mills | Carlos Perez | Noah Perio | Jose Urena |
| 9 | Chris Dwyer | Aaron Crow | Patrick Corbin | Wade Miley | Justin Jackson | Aaron Sanchez | Scott Cousins | J.T. Realmuto |
| 10 | David Lough | Brett Eibner | Keon Broxton | Patrick Corbin | Carlos Perez | Jake Marisnick | Adam Conley | Adam Conley |
There are a couple of other recent examples, but they encompass circumstances outside of the norm (Reds signing Aroldis Chapman).
Royals: Everyone but Aaron Crow broke out at once. Of all the scenarios this is the most unlikely to occur. Essentially you need a system of high end underperforming talent have it all figure it out. Unfortunately for the Royals, all the pitchers either got injured or regressed. But the key here is the very top where it is topped by two stud hitters Myers and Hosmer, both have been used by the royals to anchor the organization going forward.
Diamondbacks: This might be the closest to likely scenario for the Phillies. In a non-terrible system the Diamondbacks they had some current guys step forward and acquired two studs in the draft. Unfortunately for the Phillies they only have 1 Top 10 pick, so they are going to need some more help.
Blue Jays: The Jays rise can be tied to one simple thing, they traded Roy Halladay right after the 2010 list was compiled. The trade injected a lot of talent into the system and because of timing they got a full year of development out of them. Unfortunately the best player on the list may be Aaron Sanchez after injuries and ineffectiveness derailed many careers.
Marlins: Chalk this up to Jose Fernandez being Jose Fernandez. Christian Yelich also emerged as a premium prospect. The trade with Blue JAys helped to give them enough depth to push the system up the rankings.
So what does this mean for the Phillies? You can make the jump in a variety of ways. It can be through internal development, the draft, or trades. So lets look at this.
Internal Development: The big name here to go from good to stud is J.P. Crawford. It is hard to predict a player to be a giant breakout, but there is a good chance that Crawford is a Top 25 prospect if he continues to play the way he has. In terms of other jumps you are looking for players who are injured or making that transition to their first year of pro-ball or first full season. On the injury side Yoel Mecias and Roman Quinn could make the jump onto a Top 100 list if they can prove they are healthy, with tools at pre-injury levels. Making that jump to their first season the guys with breakout potential are Deivi Grullon and Cord Sandberg, and in full season ball a player like Andrew Pullin, Zach Green, or Dylan Cozens could put themselves on the map. You don’t need a top prospect here, but players on the fringe of the Top 100 give you much needed depth.
The Draft: The Phillies hold the 7th pick of the draft, here are the last 12 #7 overall picks; Trey Ball, Max Fried, Archie Bradley, Matt Harvey, Mike Minor, Yonder Alonso, Matt LaPorta, Clayton Kershaw, Troy Tulowitzki, Homer Bailey, Nick Markakis, and Prince Fielder. The Phillies should be draft a high end stud.
Trades: It is hard to predict trades, but the quickest way to restock is if the Phillies trade Cliff Lee and/or A.J. Burnett. Due to their age and contracts, neither will likely bring back a current stud, but there is enough potential value to give a lot of depth at the top of the system.
Overall Depth: Of my Top 30 prospects, the only ones expected to graduate are Jesse Biddle, Maikel Franco, Ethan Martin, Cesar Hernandez, and Cameron Rupp. If either of the Top 2 guys retain eligibility that could boost the farm greatly in the rankings. But more so, there is a lot of talent that will be around next year. Guys like Aaron Altherr and Kelly Dugan are likely to drop in the rankings next year as other talent passes them, but that is a lot of valuable depth back. And, while that may not replace having a stud, it will let the farm play up higher overall.
So, I don’t think it is likely the farm jumps to the Top 5 a year from now. But it is very likely that the system is in the discussion for the Top 10 a year from now, and a source of hope going forward.
Phuture Phillies 
It very possible and I would say likely that both biddle and franco are still considered prospects next year. I don’t see them rushing either guy up to the majors for anything but a cup of coffee. Biddles control was everywhere last year and didn’t have a crazy spring. Franco is just super young. Don’t see him getting 150 ABs this year.
As for the big jump, I have a strong feeling that J.P. is going to have a season like he did last year. In full season ball plus having the pedigree of the #16 pick last year, in my mind, puts him solidly in the top 25. and if we get a stud college pitcher at number 7 (I can always wish for hoffman) and one more guy does something crazy, looking at you tocci, sandberg or cozens they could easily get into the 50-70 range and thus make our farm look alot better. possibly top 10
Overall as long as some people start developing at expected rates and our big studs don’t have limbs fall off, there is a fairly good chance that we get out of the bottom third and into the top third.
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FWIW…trivia info….of the top 50 prospects for the top 5 teams, appox one-quarter are LA signees, with the Cubs and Twins having the majority of them..
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I would add 2 items to the road to becoming a highly rated system, and add one additional comment:
1) you highlight some of the recent injuries that have hurt ratings, and getting these players back. It goes without saying, but we need no significant injuries to the current set of prospects
2) International Signings – With the more open path to Cuba, the number of experienced high-impact Latin American players are probably fewer and farther between. But, if you can land a kid that in 2 years turns into a major prospect, you can have a top 50 guy in the minors for 2+ years.
Comment: If Lee continues to pitch well, I could see him bringing a highly valued prospect. If the Phillies were willing to kick in a few bucks, the return would obviously go much higher.
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Do you really trust Amaro to make a lee trade and get back good prospects, I don’t, but maybe its just me. Amaro is imo not a good judge of talent or a good gm. so I really am losing hope they cant turn this around with him in control
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Since Amaro is taking advice from the scouts and other talent evaluators in the organization when trading for prospects, your issue should be with them. Replacing Amaro with someone else isn’t going to change that.
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Matt thanks for interesting analysis. It’s nice to have some hope for the future as the present season is looking pretty grim for the big club. As a big Tocci admirer I’d love to see him break out but from what I’ve heard down south he’s still looking pretty frail. Hopefully he’s one of those guys who just physically matures a little later.
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A lot of time and energy went into creating that list. Fine job!
It seems that the Phils have been lacking the will and monies for too many years to invest heavily in Latin American prospects…..and have failed to recognize the value of people who are less tied to the old ways of evaluating. The Red Sox are a prime example of good management in player development.
Latin America has been THE prime source of pro baseball where teams can’t rely on a good draft position to get the “premier” prospects. The consequences of that short-sightedness have presented us with the present low expectations seen on our farms.
And all the while the Red Sox continue to contend while at the same time they invested heavily in LA…as the Cubs, under Epstein, are now doing.
Management top down has dropped the ball…right on our heads. It’s almost an insult to be regarded with such low esteem by management…who must have believed that with all that money and publicity rolling in the future need not be worried about.
It is my hope that the franchise be sold ASAP to a group willing to invest in new approaches and the most worthy of prospects, not groups of “second bests.”
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I can’t agree more with you on that point.
In MLB, approx 30% of all players are international players, with the vast majority being from LA.
The Phillies have six home-grown signed LAs on their 40…..Bastardo, Galvis, Ruiz, Hernandez, Franco and MAG…or 15%.
Granted they have come into the game of late with a splash since the Tocci signing, however they are still behind teams like the Braves, Rangers, Red Sox, Twins and Cubs to name a few, with ‘quality prospect’ LA signees in their farm system.
For each of the Toccis, Grullons, Pujols, Encarnacions, Mejias’ etc , the other teams may have two each just as projectable.
Nevertheless, Ruben and his strategists must have seen the the drought they had incurred from their frugality in that market and decided three years ago to make the change.
I like to think they are headed in the right direction.
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Am I alone in thinking that we should trade Cole and Cliff? I know it will make the big club worse but they already suck, so why not try to get the most value out or our only two assets.
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Cliff, yes. Cole, eh. If they were gonna do that, it should’ve been before he got re-signed. He’d get a good return, for sure, but, to me, it just seems like a VERY bad decision to do a 180 that quickly.
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I think everyone expects one or both of them to be traded. I’d expect Byrd, Burnett, and Papelbon to be available, though their value is likely to be far less.
But the time to deal them is midseason, not now. For one, it’s not impossible that the Phils could be in the playoff hunt; odds are against, but crazier things have happened.
But more practically, that’s when they will have the maximum value. Come July, some team will be in the chase and thinking that they are one elite pitcher away from contention. Maybe their ace goes down to injury and they need to replace him. And the June draft just
That’s when you trade them, for prospects that you know have another half-year of data on.
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This is very true. Other teams just don’t have the budget space to cover their full year salaries and the Phillies won’t want to eat anywhere near that much money.
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Franco returned to the minor league groups. Hopefully he gets another season like last year at AA/AAA and makes the Phillies decide whether or not he will be a Super Two call-up in July. Where he would play could be an issue, especially if Asche is able to play third and hit some.
Sandberg says Franco’s swing is ‘too big’ and needs to work on that.
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Yea, even if the Phillies aren’t competitive in 2014 and 2015, it seems like they are targeting 2016 as the year where they will have financially flexibility to compete again and Hamels should be part of our plan to be a playoff team in 2016.
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2016 may be the best opportune year to make their move.
The Nationals should walk away with the division this year and probably right thru the playoffs to the WS.with the talent they have. And probably a repeat in 2015. But in 2016 Werth should be trending downward, and Zimmerman is already showing wear and tear on his shoulder specifically, and Harper/Strasberg will be ready to talk contracts, s o that may be the best time for the Phillies to begin their renaissance.
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