We have about a month of games on the system plus spring training so it is time to take a quick look at the system and some starts to the season. I am going to start with the cold starters and on Wednesday look at some guys doing what we thought they should do and on Friday look at the guys getting off to great starts.
Slow starts don’t necessarily derail a year or even mean much. However, there is information to be had especially when looking at what has changed or not changed about a prospect coming into the year.
Don’t Panic:
Tommy Joseph – It hasn’t look great for Joseph to this point, at the plate he is batting .204/.259/.389. In a small sample size the strikeout rate is a little up and the walk rate is down, the BABIP is also only .211 but he is hitting for power closer to his year in the Cal League. The receiving is a problem and always will be, but it should improve over time and the passed balls have dropped considerably since the first week. He may not be ready as quickly as some people may like but it is just a slow start for the 21 year old in AAA.
Carlos Tocci – Throw out his stats this year, they don’t really matter, and if goes to Williamsport that doesn’t matter either. Physically this is not the Tocci of the future, the BABIP is .219 and probably won’t go much above .250-.260 if he stays in Lakewood because he doesn’t have the strength right now. He is not striking out at a high rate and his walk rate isn’t terrible comparatively. He is a high contact hitter who knows how to get the bat on the ball and it is going to look rocky while he physically matures.
Roman Quinn – Give him some time before panicking. He has a lot going on and he is in a funk right now. The walk rate has plummeted and the strikeout rate has spiked, his BABIP is 80 points lower this year and the power is slightly down. The shortstop defense is going to be adventure until it gets better or they move him to CF. We were raving about the skills and the scouting reports on the bat haven’t been terrible (hearing high power potential now).
Be Concerned:
Ethan Martin – I was really high on Martin coming into the year because I thought he had made real changes, but he has only showed flashes. I am only concerned because it was a long shot for the most part for him to start. Even if he doesn’t rebound it is a dominant bullpen arm.
Zach Collier – Collier is an enigma, he was ok in Clearwater and good in the AFL. Seems overmatched right now but there just isn’t enough sample size of career to have bad trends you are looking at. The other redeeming factor is that he is showing more power which is likely a factor of the more hitter friendly environment, but at worst he is showing the power is not a complete mirage.
Kyle Simon – Might be surprising he made the list, but he has had some concerning signs where he should be dominating. Mainly the fact that he has walked 6 and only struck out 6 over 11.1IP. It doesn’t change his ceiling as a good middle reliever but the walk rate and lack of domination gives a pause.
Panic:
Tyson Gillies – This as little to do with the stats which will likely regress up with the BABIP. The walk rate is also very nice, but the power is down and the reports on the way the swing doesn’t generate power are concerning. Gillies needs to prove he can use a game swing that can generate power, run better routes in the OF, and steal bases at a good rate to have a major league future. Gillies is running out of time to prove that he can have sustainable secondary skills and stay healthy. Had a bad spring too which doesn’t help his case.
Sebastian Valle – Another guy coming off a bad spring. Valle’s walk rate has spike up but he also is striking out in 35% of his at bats. He is falling behind Rupp on the depth chart and this is last option year. He needs to improve quickly to not just fall off any prospect radar.
Ethan Stewart – Projectable LHP who was supposed to have 3 average pitches. Not old for the level but in his 3rd year out of Junior College. But he has only pitched 19.2 IP over 5 starts with 22 walks. Not a lot expected but a guy who had a back end starter profile and could have been an interesting trade piece who is trending towards non-prospect if he doesn’t find some control.
Phuture Phillies 
For me, it is difficult to visualize Joseph as being ready for MLB any time soon. Yes, he is still a young ‘un so there is time yet for him to refine his skills both at bat and behind the plate. But it seems (even at this early date) that he will need ’13 AND ’14 to do that.
All of which makes necessary the re-signing of Ruiz for 2-3 years. For some unknown reason, Latino catchers seem to have a longer shelf life than the more northern squatters.
We don’t know if Joseph is capable of becoming the kind of defensive catcher that the Phils & MLB requires. Right now he appears to be well below the threshold required despite his few minor lg seasons. Frankly, I am concerned that the promised goodies will never be delivered to Philly.
Most of the others on your list are suffering the inevitable growing pains of minor lg baseball.
Comfort is to be found in Biddle. Some day we could say, at a strikeout: He got “Biddled.”
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I agree with most of this, but I’m not concerned about Simon yet and I’m not panicking about Gillies- I would probably put him in the “concerned” group..
Simon had a larger sample in Reading last year and he did very well- plus this year he’s still generating a ton of groundballs, although not as many as last year. As for Gillies, I thought the team was reworking his swing? I’d assume it will take some time for that to show any progress, if it does. My expectations for him weren’t that high to begin with, but I do like the K and BB numbers.
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Gillies is downright scary. I’m afraid he needs a change in scenery. You can’t trade him except as a throwin’ piece. I really didn’t expect him to do anything but hope springs eternal. I had him #24 in my top 30 and I didn’t even want to put him in it but the Community list had him at #12. LHV would be doing so much better if Gillies was hitting… and he was in the leadoff spot. Maybe he needs a sports psychologist. Something’s eating him and he’s taking it out onto the field. He should be able to hit .200… at least. Wow, that was 5 or 6 distinct thoughts that didn’t fit together very well.
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A couple of comments on the LHV guys:
Tommy: I agree, don’t panic. He’s very young, and for the defense, the pitchers have been erratic as well, so add that in. Pressure calling the games and hitting in a new league with mostly new-ish teammates. Lots of time–agree sign Ruiz though.
Martin: He’s also young-ish. The control was the bugaboo to look for and sure enough wildness has been a factor thus far. But the weather’s been horrible and he’s looked really good at times. Let’s give him some time. I’ll keep him in the “Don’t Panic” category on my list.
Gillies: They are changing his swing. He is getting frustrated at times and resorts to his old swing just to try to get off the schnide. He’s pressing. It’s gotten him picked off a few times, as well. I’ve got him in my “Be Concerned” column. He does look like he knows what he’s doing at the plate and that’s comforting. I’m worried about his mental health as well, but I’m willing to stick it out a while longer.
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I would add Larry Greene to the concerned list as well. This is his 2nd year, there has been no power for a prospect considered the premier HS power guy coming out and most worrisome for me, two years running where he was not in baseball shape when the bell rang. How is a 19-20 year old out of shape after an offseason of training/preparartion?
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Wanted to keep this to onfield performance and he hasn’t played enough, Greene is very concerning right now and have heard non-prospect about him more times than I would like so far this season. The power is there, I have my own concerns about the approach. He walks and works counts too much, he is overly passive and I am concerned it is tied to questions of bat speed and not getting to pitches. It is an approach that will be exposed when pitchers can throw consistent strikes and get outs in the zone (AA and above)
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I have to say that I agree with Matt’s comments on all of the above players. Perhaps a lesser extent with respect to Martin only because I didn’t see much of an improvement last season that couldn’t otherwise be dismissed due to the small sample at Reading last year. His BB rate is just atrocious and he doesn’t have the dominating type of stuff that will allow him to get by as a starter without a considerable reduction in BBs.
Another guy I would consider for the ‘Be Concerned’ column is Jake Diekman. Walk rate is up, K rate is down, Hits per 9 are up. Not a good start
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Wasn’t just the time post trade. In his 6 starts leading up to the trade he allowed 14 walks over 37.2 IP (3.4 BB/9) and after the trade over 47.1 IP (including playoff starts) he had 18 BBs (3.4 BB/9) though he walked 7 in a 4.2 IP start which would give him a 2.3 BB/9 over the remaining time. but otherwise I would say the 85 IP of 3.4 BB/9 was a pretty good sample size. There was also talk this spring from sources I trust about some changes in his delivery that have “calmed” it down. That being said it has been concerning thus far, but I have to agree with Kram somewhat that the cold and wet can contribute to the problem. The lack of changeup though might actually be the biggest obstacle to starting.
Diekman has exhausted prospect eligibility so he didn’t make the list. I would put him closer to panic levels because it is getting worst each start, I would not be surprised if he is injured.
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Yeah something’s wrong with Diek. His tweets suggest he’s been jilted–could be mental. I spoke with him before the season and he suggested that he was happy with his delivery and release at the time (I know, what else was he gonna say–just sayin’)
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Collier is the guy most confounding to me. I thought he had made serious strides forward but now he’s slid back and is bordering on non prospect. Its hard to argue with any of the names on the list and its easy to find a few more to add to it (Knigge, Ruf, Cloyd, Wright, etc). Fortunately, there are several guys who are outperforming what we expected also so all is not lost. Plus the WSport group hasn’t even started yet and we have several prospects who will be playing there as well.
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I think we know everything we need to about the organization’s assessment of Collier and Gillies by the fact that they traded pitching depth for a young, fleet-footed centerfielder during the offseason. I know both of them–Gillies especially–have their supporters here, but the team’s talent evaluators have seen both of those guys more than us, and they seem to have made the decision to bring in young talent from outside.
That said, I don’t know what choice they had, given the CF market this offseason.
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I agree with your assessment of Collier and Gillies, both have taken a big step backwards to start this season. I don’t think Revere has anything to do with the Phillies assessment of them. Neither had a chance to be ready for 2013 in Philly and Collier also was not a 2014 possibility. Revere seems more short-term fix than long-term plan, since he’s never had either any power or high obp in his short major league career. The Phillies wanted an immediate increase in CF D and Revere was an inexpensive fix.
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Changing my answer on Martin: He’s having trouble getting out of the first inning as I type. Four walks. Plus he over-threw first base and tweaked his hammy (stayed in the game, for now). And all on a nice day in LOU with experienced catcher Lerud behind the plate. So color me concerned.
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Outside of Biddle , their best prospect is Franco in my opinion.
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