Box Score Recap – 4/27/2013

Box Score Recap

As has been pretty obvious to those of us watching the stats every day, Cesar Hernandez is having a fine month at the plate – he added another three hits Saturday, including a triple, and he swiped two bags to get his season total to five in five chances. If he can steal 20-25 bases a year at a higher rate than he’s had the last couple years, (ugh% and eww%, respectively – I’m not doing the math – “ugh” and “eww” sum it up), that would be a huge plus. Cesar’s in his last option year, so he needs to put it all together in 2013. At least in the small sample of the first three weeks, he seems to be doing just that.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB. LKW ppd.

 http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130427

4-26-13 boxscores

92 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 4/27/2013”

  1. If the Phillies are buyers at the deadline, I would expect to see Cesar as a throw-in. (No, before anyone asks, a little second basemen in his last option year does not have more value than a throw-in.)

    He can probably help a team at the big league level, but he’s position-limited and Utley is playing like he wants to stick around for awhile. (And if he doesn’t, Galvis is next on the depth chart at second . . . and short, and third, and probably every outfield spot, too.)

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  2. So it’s nearly May, and Anthony Hewitt has a .271/.338/.424 line with a 9.2 percent BB rate. And he hasn’t even hit a HR yet. Yes, his K rate is nearing the 30 percent threshold we’ve come to know and love, but still … 9.2 percent!

    Also, nice games for Cesar and Cam Rupp. And welcome back Kelly Dugan!

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    1. I am at the game right now. Please stop. Hewitt is going nowhere. He can’t hit a breaking ball and never could. He’s a lost cause forget about him as prospect.

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  3. Perci Garner seemed to be cruising along for 3 innings then he appeared to lose his command in the 4th with a W and two singles. He still should have got out of the inning unscathed, but he hit the #2 hitter when he already had 2 strikes on him. Then a E6 let in the second run. Franco then made a great play on a hard hit ground ball to end the inning. After Garner went W, K in the 5th he was 0-2 when he hit another batter and then was pulled from the game. So what looked like a promising start turned bad after 3innings. Dugan looked a lot better, actually his double in the 5th hit right on the yellow line atop the fence in left center, but still looks bad with wild swings at low pitches. One negative on Franco, with a 3-0 count he swung and hit a weak grounder to 3rd(which was booted) but you would expect better contact in that situation. Video at : http://www.youtube.com/user/TheGkita

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  4. Cesar Hernandez is probably a better option at 2B than the absolute garbage that Toronto is throwing out there. How about Halladay and Cesar to Toronto for a package including Anthony Gose. It looks pretty likely Utley has rebounded and will be signed to an extension to finish his career as a Phillie. They already have Freddy Galvis for a backup utility IF(and OF).

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  6. At the R-Phils game. Just starting but I think you are going to LOVE the Biddle scouting report.

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        1. 10 Ks and no runs through 6 … that’s 17 consecutive scoreless innings for Biddle by my count.

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      2. Correct. He was at 93-95 in the first inning. Then, for a few innings, he was at 92 and 93. The last two innings he was at 91 and 92 for the most part. But the big story is a nearly unhittable curve. A plus perhaps even elite pitch. A rare swing and miss curve. Biddle definitely has ace potential.

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        1. I would think for him to have true ace potential, he would need the curve AND the increased velocity on his fastball.

          But if he can maintain both – and 2 games is still a SSS, but, let’s face it, a lot more impressive than a one off – especially since the numbers are supplemented by scouting reports regarding his curve and velocity – and his command, which has never been an issue with him … then yeah, ace potential.

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          1. Yeah, this is encouraging. Let’s keep in mind he turned 21 over the offseason, so it’s totally reasonable to imagine that his body might have developed during the offseason in such a way that the added velocity is for real. There were lots of press reports (which conform to what I saw at the minor league complex this spring) that he’s finally grown into his frame and worked a lot on condition during the offseason.

            So, all of that is to say: it’s not unreasonable to think that this early season success might be indicative of a real sustainable leap.

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  8. It cannot be long before Biddle is risen to LV. Maybe by July. He has outgunned Morgan and all others with now the highest expectations. His pitching now resembles a #1 in the rotation were Hamels not already there.

    Might be in the first 5 prospects now or soon.

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    1. I wouldn’t keep Biddle in Reading long. He has lousy support that from offense and he is quiet obviously out classing that league. I won’t even rule out a double jump for him by August.

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  9. Don’t let Biddle’s outing distract you from checking out what Franco, Cesar and Ruf did at the dish today.

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      1. Or St. Louis when the Phillies trade half the farm system in July for Matt Holliday. I wish I were joking.

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        1. I think there is 0% chance of that happening. First, St. Louis will not trade Holliday because Beltran is gone next year and that’s where Taveres will play.

          Second, I could see a trade between St. Louis and Phillies but it would evolve Adams and Wong. Cards have no reason to trade their star left fielder when they will probably win their division and contend for another ring this year.

          Plus, they don’t need prospects. They have a top 3 systems already and that would be the only reason to trade a guy like Holliday,

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          1. My response about Holliday was a little tongue in cheek. My views about Ruben trading all the good prospects almost every in sight are not.

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          1. That trade won’t. I wonder – and I’m not sure one way or the other about this …. what happens if the team is in marginal contention towards the trade deadline – entirely possible – despite my relative pessimism, I still think this is a .500 plus team, and if they are over .500 at the trade deadline they are not sellers, and may be buyers. Then what does Amaro do?

            I think he MIGHT go the prospects for veteran route once more (and, while not for Holliday because he won’t be on the market, then for another corner outfielder, probably the team’s biggest weakness this year that can’t be filled internally). I wouldn’t like to see him do that, but I could see it happening.

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            1. I agree with this, and its why the development of Brown and/or Ruf, or at least a miracle strong season by D Young or Mayberry, would possibly prevent this from happening. I’m not convinced the Phils are going to bring D Young up. If Ruf gets hot at the plate over the next week, and from all I’ve heard he’s playing much better in LF, they may call him up and release D Young. Most days the OF would be Ruf, Revere, and Brown, left to right, with Nix getting an occassional start in LF against a tough RHP, and with Mayberry getting some time in CF if Revere’s struggles continue, or in RF against a tough LHP. I’d love to see this work to the point that it dissuades RAJ from pulling off another Pence type deal.

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            2. I’m going to expand upon this in the next general thread, but for all the talk of the team losing because of older declining veterans (something that I have bought into myself, and something that does have some truth to it), the biggest reason for the team’s hitting troubles:

              Outfielders are hitting a combined .223/.290/.350. Replacement level.

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          2. Yeah, you guys are really not good at picking up on a derisive comment. The Cardinals almost certainly won’t trade Holliday.

            That’s not the point of the comment, however. The point is that Ruben can be reckless in trading away his prospects when he feels the team is in a stretch run. Such a trade can be a good thing if you pick and choose your spots. But when you dump tons of prospects every July for an incremental advantage, that slight potential advtange, in the long haul, can quickly turn into a huge organizational disadvantage. I want to see him show some discretion and restraint this year and stop making trades like he was taking directions from the callers on WIP.

            That’s the point guys.

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            1. “you guys are really not good at picking up on a derisive comment”

              Understatement of the year. Comments are often misinterpreted – or an attempt to be facetious goes unnoticed. Such is the challenge of all social media outlets I guess. Perhaps we should resort to smiley faces or other emoticons when posting.

              I agree though Catch – particularly now that the aging core is producing less and less each year. If RAJ isn’t careful the new generation of Phillies phans are going to learn how it was to be a Phillies phan before CBP opened

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    2. Has anyone else noticed that Franco does a lot of his major damage in the late innings? It seems like I’ve seen a lot of his extra base hits are coming late. I wonder if that is because he is concentrating more late, or he is dominating weaker pitching, because the starter is out of the game.

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    3. Franco leads the FSL in doubles and is tied for second in home runs. The only player who has hit more HR is Miguel Sano. And he’s still only 20.

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  10. I’m pretty sure the other day people were ripping the lakewood lineup. It seems stacked with solid prospects who are playing well. Altherr will slow down, but still has real good upside and could be breaking out a little. Franco… nuff said. I love Dugan when healthy, and he seems like he could get it going. the dugan franco 1-2 punch tore it up the second half of last year. and perkins i may be starting to buy into

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    1. They all play for Clearwater. I think Franco will be a stud 3rd baseman, which makes having him and asche a good problem to have. Does asche play RF?

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    1. They always planned to play Ruf at 1B once or twice a week, just to keep him comfortable I guess.

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      1. Proefrock has said they want to keep him fresh at 1B because he would most likely be the first to be called up if Howard were to get DLed.

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  12. Perkins another solid day, OPS at .924. They need to move him aggressively, should be in Reading soon. Ruf with a huge day, 12 total bases, hopefully he catches fire soon.

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    1. Cameron Perkins won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. I’m not sure they planned on him playing at Clearwater, except that Dugan got hurt. He was in the Lakewood group the end of spring training. Either way, Perkins needs to work on some things, before moving up to Reading. He isn’t hitting line drives and his walk rate is abysmal.

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      1. What exactly is he hitting then? Do you have stats to show his LD%? Or is it from a personal observation, watching the actual games? I love that he just doesn’t strike out and his ISO is near .200. I think we’ll regret not having him in our top 30, since it sounds like he’s made the full conversion to the outfield.

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          1. Eh, even major league LD% rates arent precise; I have no trust in that stat for the minors. The major reference sites don’t list it for a reason.

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        1. I think its beyond status changing already. Middle of the order types dont put up a 16 strikeout game, backed up by another 10 strikeout the next game. I think most people would reasonable agree he’s a #2 type already, and shoot, with a small velocity uptick he’s a #1.

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            1. Read my post again, even non prospects are capable of these fluky games, but having another double digit K game next time out? Find me a list of those.

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          2. I think you have much different definitions of #1 ceiling then the industry but that is fine. The stats that Biddle has put up have done nothing for his prospect status, what has solidified his #2 starter ceiling is the velocity sitting plus for a LHP rather than average touching plus. The curveball has gone from really good to a true dominating pitch. But as Pat said there are lesser starters putting up the number. Cingrani did it earlier this year and he is a #2/#3 type long term who is more in Adam Morgan’s class.

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            3. Cingrani wasn’t hyped as a prospect coming into this season mostly due to a fastball that touched 90 but just as often sat in the high 80’s. Yesterday he hit 95 on the gun on more than one occasion and was regularly sitting in the 90’s – and this has been the case so far this season. Is it possible that a 22 yr old kid added 3 or 4 ticks to his FB over the off-season? Absolutely. I still feel that Cingrani is pitching above his capability right now and will likely come back to Earth once teams get a second look and scouting reports become more comprehensive but if his FB is going to stick at 93 with the ability to touch 95 when needed, there may be a low-end #1 in there

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            4. Or could be that he’s developed a 3rd pitch that accentuates his curve ball. Reports are he’s using his slider and change more often. If he develops the 3rd pitch along with plus comand he profiles as a #1.

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            5. Do you consider Hamels and Lee to be #1s? If so, then that would roughly be Biddle’s current ceiling. He has that type of ceiling and I respectfully disagree that his perceived ceiling has not changed. I think it most certainly has – perhaps even dramatically so. He has shown an uptick in velocity with the possibility of a little more (or, more accurately, the possbility of carrying it for more innings). He has shown the signs of mastering a third and fourth pitch (change and slider), each of which could become at least above average. And, most of all, I don’t care how much you project a kid, I don’t think you can ever expect a player to develop a curveball that’s as good as the one Biddle throws now. It’s an insanely good pitch. At least a plus pitch and probably a plus plus pitch (elite) between its movement and his command of it. I have never seen a pitcher get as many swings and misses on a curve as Biddle does with this pitch. It’s literally a game changer and, I think, puts Biddle on a possible course of acedom.

              Now, if your threshold for acedom for lefties is Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw or Steve Carlton, well, Biddle has not shown that type of ceiling yet, I won’t argue with you there. But I don’t think the threshold for an ace is a possible first ballot HOFer.

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            6. I do consider Hamels and Lee #1s (though with the caveat that Hamels is pitching more in the #2/#3 territory right now due to a concerning drop in the usefulness and location of his cutter). The distinction is both of them have elite skills and they have done it on the major league level. Hamels wasn’t a #1 with just an 80 changeup, he also added a cutter which ended up as a true weapon (not to mention is curveball was a near elite pitch when he was coming through the minors), Lee has the best control since Maddux. Biddle just doesn’t have those weapons and he doesn’t project to have them. If you say he could just add another pitch or the velocity could magically tick up that can change his ceiling, but using that logic I could say that if Ben Revere changed his swing to hit for power he has a higher ceiling. Sure it could happen, is it likely, no, and it is not something you can project. Biddle is going to be very good, but lets hold off on the ace talk considering he has yet to face batters used to hitting breaking ball (that is the AAA test) and his control is only showing average right now with a 3.5 BB/9.

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            8. That is a #2 starter, look at the difference between 2008 and 2010. The cutter allowed him to greatly up his strikeout rate. But moreso, to be an ace you need to be able to log 200+ effective innings a year and Hamels broke down the next year. It is the reason that prospects are never #1s coming out of the minors (I will leave Strasburg off of my list until he shows he can handle 200IP a year). Playoffs are small sample size, and Hamels was very good but there is a lot to being an ace level starting pitcher

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            9. How did Hamels break down next year? He started 32 games. Also small sample size? Hamels lead the league in WHIP in 2008. He most surely was a #1 in 2008 without a cutter.

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            10. Matt I’m not saying he will be an ace. I’m saying this is his ceiling. He probably has no more than a 20-30 percent chance of reaching that ceiling. I am also not basing this projection on an increase in velocity so the Ben Revere analogy is a red herring.

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            11. Yeah, I disagree completely with the analogy as explained below. Nobody is saying he’s likely to be an ace. Of course he’s not likely to be an ace. His middle of the bell curve most likely outcome is probably as a very strong #3 or average #2. What I’m saying is that he has ace potential and I think it’s true. But that outcome is no more than 20-30% likely. Also, my projections have nothing to do with his acquiring new physical skills. They are not contingent on his throwing faster or becoming essentially a different pitcher or developing new pitches he doesn’t already throw (or doesn’t throw well). For that reason the Ben Revere analogy has inapt. My projections are based on a possible logical progression of his pitching skills – a natural development, not a morphing into something else.

              And the above would have applied to Hamels when he came up. He wasn’t an ace back then and had little more than a two-pitch mix. But the underlying ability was there and you could see it. With the exception of the 2008 post-season, Hamels did not throw like an ace until mid-2010. When he came up he was a 3/4, he was a 2 in 2008, a 3/4 in 2009. But his ceiling was always as an ace and that’s how I view Biddle’s potential.

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  14. susdorf, game winning pinch hit double to win game sat night off former big league arm !! he keeps on hitting

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  15. One thing that has been missing from Cesar’s resume is successfully stolen bases. With all his supposed speed he had a lousy SB%.

    Some coaches must have gotten ahold of him. Last time I looked he was 5-5 in SB attempts. That IS a good sign. There is a lot of MLB yet to be played this season. We won’t know how real and ENDURING Utley’s good recovery will turn out to be. IMO, keeping Cesar available is good policy.

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  16. Cingrani a pitcher from rice. who the coach there didnt ruin, amazing, First time that I heard of this kid. looks like a really strong strikeout pitcher. cinninati will be tough if this kid is for real,

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    1. He was a reliever in college so the arm is fresh. The fastball is mostly legitimate but has fluctuated from 86 to 96 this year and according to PitFX he has thrown 80.7% fastballs this year. He is next to no secondary pitches which really hinders him once opposing teams make adjustments.

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  17. Say Cesar hits .310 40SB 302B 103B 5HR and frills well what do you guys think we do with him?!?!!

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    1. I like Cesar, but don’t view him as a regular or as Utley’s replacement. He’d probably make for a decent utility guy aside from the fact that he’s somewhat restricted to 2b. He’s going to need to hit .300 and maintain some form of consistency as a base-stealer just to be useful at the MLB level IMO

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      1. I’m keeping an open mind with Cesar because I think he’s put on quite a bit of muscle over the last year. When I saw him at Reading last year I was surprised at how small he was and how much trouble he had driving pitches. The guy I am watching on MILB.TV looks like a much different person. Stronger with a better base. If Cesar can drive the ball a bit better he becomes a much more valuable player with, perhaps, an entirely different trajectory. We’ll see. He certainly has athleticism on his side.

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        1. I recall reading an interview with Cesar over the winter where he seemed somewhat perturbed at the fact that Galvis had reached the majors before him. Almost a ‘if he can, I certainly can’ attitude. Not saying that’s a bad thing even if he underestimates the plus, plus glove of Galvis. Still, I think the success of Galvis may be a motivating factor for Cesar (as if a MLB salary wasn’t enough motivation – wink, smiley face, nudge, nudge)
          ; )
          : )

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          2. It’s not particularly uncommon for LA prospects coming up through the same system to be friends and/or rivals, so I could see Cesar being competitive with Galvis. Especially with both coming from Venezuela.

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  18. Not sure what 2 of those numbers mean. That aside, I’m not entirely sure that C. Hernandez right now is entirely in control of his own destiny. Even if one were to assume that that kind of performance would merit a shot at a major league job (and IMO it depends upon just what the “frills” are – a .310 BA and 40 SB with little power and few BB in AAA does not, by itself, necessarily indicate a future successful major league regular) he really doesn’t have a spot on the 2014 Phillies. Ironic given the team’s performance, but second base isn’t one of the team’s holes.

    Which means IF they are buyers, he is trade bait. I’m not sure I like that, as his trade value may be lower than his true prospect value.

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    1. Yeah, Zito circa 2002. If you think he’s like the current version of Zito, you could not be further from the truth. Biddle throws 6-10 MPH faster than Zito with the FB and his fastball has good movement and he throws it with very good deception. There’s no comparison. None.

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        1. Read above. Have you seen Zito pitch lately? If the comp is to Zito as a prospect, that’s not bad. But if it’s to present day Barry Zito, it’s entirely off base.

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    1. I’m waiting for the general thread for the week – have a post all ready for it, but looks like I will need to wait till after work.

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  21. So, it’s nearly May and the best-hitting center fielder in the upper three levels of the system is Collier, with a batting average of .173. Good thing we have Ben Revere tearing it at the plate for the big club!

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      1. Ok, I stand corrected. But haven’t they had Altherr playing on the corners most of this season? I thought Hudson was starting for the most part in center.

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      1. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Phils are asking him to focus on his other pitches right now, sort of like they did with Gavin Floyd. I’d be curious to find out how many curves he’s actually been throwing, if anybody has seen him pitch this year.

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    2. Hasn’t pitched since 4/21 and having prepared to pitch for 3 days straight now and an early morning game. Opposing pitcher at 4BBs through his first 23 innings and 5 so far today so I think it is safe to say that the days off have affected the pitchers (I remember a year or two ago where Biddle had a bad stretch because of constant rainouts and weird start times)

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