There has been a lot of talk lately about bringing up Adam Morgan, however he requires a spot on the 40 man roster. This isn’t a deal breaker but it does provide an excuse to reevaluate the 40 man roster as there has been some definite shifts early in the system. Currently the roster stands at 41 players due to Carlos Ruiz’s suspension.
The Locks (22):
Erik Kratz, Carlos Ruiz, Kevin Frandsen, Freddy Galvis, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Michael Young, Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, Darin Ruf, Mike Adams, Phillipe Aumont, Antonio Bastardo, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan, Cliff Lee, Ethan Martin, Jonathan Pettibone, Jonathan Papelbon
Likely Locks (9):
Sebastian Valle, Zach Collier, Cesar Hernandez, and Tyson Gillies – Four prospects who have either have value or have the tools/ceiling to have a major league future. None will be difference makers but have too much value to throw to the side.
John Mayberry and Laynce Nix – I think Mayberry should be a lock but there are enough RH OFs that his spot may be safe now but he isn’t a lock to stick around forever, Nix has a guaranteed contract and left handed power off the bench.
Justin De Fratus, Jake Diekman, Jeremy Horst – Three bullpen arms with either a major league track record or upside that points at better than middle relief.
Special Cases (2):
Humberto Quintero – Quintero is holding Ruiz’s spot and will be DFA’d to put the roster at 40 when Chooch returns.
Eziquiel Carrera – The only true backup CF on the roster, could be made redundant if the Phillies trust either Galvis or Mayberry to play CF in short bursts. Carrera is out of options and would be subject to waivers to be optioned to the minors. He may be waiting for Delmon Young to arrive.
Should be cut (2):
Delmon Young and Chad Durbin – RAJ’s two offseason mistakes have guaranteed contracts of small amounts. the organization is hesitant to cut either of them this early in the season, but the team has player on its roster who provide better production in the same role.
On the Bubble:
Tyler Cloyd – Cloyd’s upside is long man/#6 starter and he has passed in that role by Pettibone and others. There is little upside or hope that Cloyd will get any better.
Raul Valdes – The Phillies like his ability to give multiple innings but ultimately he is one of many lefty relievers lacking in raw stuff.
Joe Savery – Two months ago Savery owned the first cut spot, but he has gotten off to a blistering start to this season allowing 2 H 1 BB 12K over 8.2 IP on the major and minor league level.
Mauricio Robles – Another easy cut at the beginning of the season but Robles a former top prospect with the Mariners has shown his arm strength again and is dominating AA over 10.1 IP with 6 H 1 BB 16 Ks so far.
BJ Rosenberg – The starting pitching experiment probably buys him some months.
Michael Stutes – He was not that good in 2011 despite the raw numbers. The stuff is down and he is struggling on the AAA level.
Phuture Phillies 
Why would Delmon Young get cut? He is going to start when he comes back from the DL.
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he should be cut because he is not very good and he hasnt played RF since 2007
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I don’t think people understand. He is only a year older than Darin Ruf with plenty of experience, last years ALCS MVP, still has relative pop in his bat, and is extremely affordable. People are making him out to be a 36 year old with bad ankles who’s career is coming to a close. Sure he isn’t what he used to be but give him a chance, he can give more production and be more valuable than Carrera. Ezequiel is good and all but he lacks offensively and what is the point of pinch running if there is nobody on base to pinch run for? Young provides value, not as much as some may want, but value. Let him have a couple AB’s before jumping to a conclusion.
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What did he used to be? He’s only had one full season in which he’s been an above average hitter and even then he wasn’t worth much because he can’t play defense.
It’s been a few years since Young’s provided any value whatsoever. I think most people aren’t expecting him to start now.
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RAJ signed Young knowing pretty much what we know now about Young. Additionally, the ML club is struggling offensively and particularly in the power department. I do not think think he is a savior, but there is no way they cut Young before they give him a shot unless he is injured again. Although I would not have signed him, I do agree with giving him a try at this point. That tells u how desperate things are. Sad.
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Agree Rickey. A few things here; Morgan is not as likely to be called up as some would hope. If Pettibone continues to keep the Phils in games I would suspect him to stick until Lannan becomes available or another option presents itself.
DYoung is not getting cut, and least not initially. His righty bat is actually needed right now even if the thought of him patrolling RF is downright scary. Stutes isn’t a bubble guy in any sense of the word.
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Yeah I’m not saying there’s any way he will be cut. I also don’t mind him getting a shot, if he can play a passable right field. I was just disputing the idea he provides value.
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Knowing that RAJ doesn’t use statistics the way many modern fans have begun to, I would question whether he “knows pretty much what we know” about Young. He’s asking a guy with poor ability to play RF because he wasn’t good in left field. Unless he has left-right perception problems, the only difference is he hasn’t played RF for a long time and his arm hasn’t been good since he was a teenager (give or take). Also, Young is quite bad on the bases.
Do I believe Rube know any of that stuff? No. I think he says “Hey, cheap OF with some pop and lots of upside” and that’s as far as it goes.
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. . . . and from a guy on his way back from microfracture ankle surgery.
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Now that his ankle is fixed, maybe he’ll hit and run and throw better. Guy can dream, right?
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I have a hard time believing RAJ is that dumb. I think he got caught in the proverbial no mans land. I think they thought Ruf was going to be ok in LF therefore D. Young was insurance. RAJ had said all along Delmon would have to prove he can play in the field so he did leave himself that out clause if Ruf stepped up and seized the job. As we witnessed Ruf crapped the bed. Had he just been decent D. Young is probably an after thought and RAJ cuts him citing his inability to prove he can play in the field.
It’s hard to defend Ruben because he is not very transparent and to a large degree a bit stubborn.
Just my opinion but for the most part many of his moves on paper were pretty darn good if however unlucky. Yeah there were some head scratchers but what GM doesn’t have a few of those notched on their belts.
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Not trying to land on you here, DMAR. Just ranting…
Yes, GMs are entitled to bad moves, and all make some. But no one forced him to assume Darin Ruf could play left field. No one even thought to play Darin Ruf in left field before he started mashing last summer, and if Ruben made off-season plans based on a AA 1B’s ability to play LF, (and hit big league pitching, which was NOT a given), Dave Montgomery ought to throw him out of a moving car.
Aside from that, his front office has resisted statistical truths incorporated to some extent by most every other team. I know the OF situation was not ideal this winter – lots of older FA guys being overpaid – but Amaro let Nate Scherholtz (and his average/above average platoon bat and great arm) walk for nothing because they have too many LHBs, I guess, and signed Delmon Young, a RHB whose OPS was 10 & 12 points below league average the last 2 years, and who played mostly DH in 2012, and who Ruben acknowledged was a pretty bad leftfielder the year before. He had a decent role player who could have platooned with John Mayberry or Darin Ruf and he let him walk and signed a worse player – not “statistcal analysis” worse – “back of a baseball card” worse.
Anyway, we can argue each of his moves one by one, (I’m sure people will continue to do so with every forthcoming move and every bit of transactional history), but unless Delmon Young turned his life around and figured out some plate discipline and keeps himself in playing shape and runs good routes and catches the balls he gets to and throws like he did in 2007, this signing will prove to be a bad one, and one that should not have been necessary, IMO.
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Understand Dave Montgomery is thinking about extending Ruben’s current contract through 2017………….just kiddin.
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No offense taken Brad but that’s a lot of words dedicated to a single move when there are many others he could be given some credit for….
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Brad, the Phillies have said that they use statistical analysis just not as much as other teams. The Phillies have acknowledged that they use scouting in their decision making along with the statistics which comes from Gillick. I don’t get your Nate Scherholz liking as he is a lifetime .260 hitter who got off to a good start this year and the Phillies and Giants had the same opinion of him. I liked Scherholz but he was LH bat in a lefty leaning lineup that needed balance. Why don’t we give Delmon Young a chance to play before we judge his preformance? Just look at what Vernon Wells is doing for the Yankees and he gave them a boost this year.
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Rose colored glasses. They have said explicitly that the ONLY use of modern statistical analysis is to gauge how other teams who aren’t stuck in the 19th century evaluate certain players.
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The simple fact is that, as much as I have bent over backwards to be fair to D. Young, I have bent over backwards to be fair to Amaro. No more. He needs to go, and he needs to go now.
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young is a defensive liability. the baseball gods will decide how much of one he is but the ball usually finds the guy who can’t catch it. i don’t think it will be long before he is exposed. an outfield with brown and young is not consistent with a strategy of a team built on pitching. he will be gone or reduced to pinch hitting/ spot duty by july.
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There is an easy solution to this as you just use Mayberry as a defensive replacement with a lead from the 6th inning on and an occasional start. Delmon Young has to hit better than John Mayberry Jr. in RISP situations as other teams are pitching around the others to get to Mayberry and Kratz. Well at least Carlos Ruiz comes back Sunday and D. Young is almost ready.
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So this post was an exercise to get everyone restart the ‘Delmon Young was a bad signing’ song?
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While even I am getting sick of the “debate,” such as it is, the responses defending him are thin enough to themselves make the case against Young. Setting aside all the baggage, there is an argument to be made for Young on a team that needs some right handed power in a platoon role and off the bench. But the Phillies have Mayberry, who, despite my recent jinxing, fills that role much better than Young. One is left arguing that Young would be better at hitting right handers (arguably just barely true on a career basis, though not based upon this season’s admittedly SSS). It is not much of an argument given how bad Young has been in that role.
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Where is Tommy Joseph?
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not on the 40 man roster
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And off to a truly horrendous start on the year. Over the winter we asked whether Joseph or Valle would step forward and be the AAA catcher and ready to move to PHilly when needed. Now Valle isn’t hitting in AA and Joseph isn’t hitting while collecting too many passed balls in AAA. Who would have guessed that Rupp would be our best looking catcher in the early going.
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I would say me, but even me and my Rupp-colored glasses I didn’t think it would be like this.
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Ryan Howard, so far in 2013, 2 for 16 with RISP. Delmon may be a tad better.
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I was going to make a “DFA Ryan Howard” joke, but I see I’ve been beaten to it.
If they send down Pettibone (who has a better chance of success than Cloyd in the opinion of most) to bring up Morgan, that tells you all you need to know about Cloyd’s future in this organization. Easy call.
That said, not sure Gillies and Valle are “likely locks.” They’re bubble guys for me. Project catchers and 4th outfielders aren’t valueless, but they’re not worth stashing on a crowded roster, either.
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watching Howard disintegrate in front of our eyes is just painful. I just cringe these days when Howard comes up with men in scoring position because i know we aren’t going to get anything out of it.
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I honestly can’t believe there is $75M left on that deal AFTER this year.
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They are passing the hat around these days at Citizens Bank. Don’t be stingy.
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Howard did have a .329/.441/.603 line with RISP last year, so the 2 for 16 could just be a fluke. Especially since his overall BA is surprisingly not bad.
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Walking through the options I came up with Cloyd though I think the first thing that happens is Carrera goes through waivers when Young is activated. That might solve the 40-man problem because there is really no role for him when he is not getting CF starts with Revere hitting .200. I do think there is a possibility of more extended looks at Mayberry in CF when Young is activated, certainly against LHP.
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Totally agree on Mayberry getting some time in CF. Hopefully that would be against a lefty starter, but as Charlie has shown, he doesn’t care about platoon splits, even when they’re the 7-10 variety.
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Revere actually has very little platoon splits in his career. Mayberry does of course. The larger problem is getting some production out of Revere because we DO need his defense.
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Absolutely. Not worried about Revere’s platoon splits, for sure. But if they’re using him to spell Revere (or Brown) it may as well be in an advantageous situation for Mayberry.
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i’m stunned at how bad revere has been offensively. didn’t he hit more than .290 last year? i know he has no power, but one extra base hit in 22 games is nothing short of embarrassing. i think he’s hit into more double plays than he has RBIs – and he’s supposed to be this speed merchant.
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Mayberry played some CF in Lehigh Valley IIRC, actually pleased with how he’s doing well as he always has a horrible first few months of the season (I know, SSS, be-low me). I’ll be surprised if he keeps this up (he’s more of the .260 variety), but at least he’s doing something unlike other OFs who still can’t play or hit (*wink*).
Carrera will be DFA for sure and I think I’m leaning towards Stutes going DFA if/when Morgan would get a call (you know another starter will go down at some point). They already have JDF/Diekman/Rosenberg down in AAA to fill in if any pen arms are needed, and while I like Stutes a lot, it might be a numbers game for him (and TBA, he’s been quite putrid this year). He would get snatched up in a instant though, I think a change of scenery would be good. If it’s not him, it’s Cloyd then, who has been quite horrid this year. His control seems to be way off so far this year in seeing him, which is not what I saw last year. Maybe he’s trying too hard, who knows, but since JJ loves them speed guys, I could see him go as well.
Not getting the Delmon Young hate still. I mean, at least he’s actually done something in the majors unlike Brown, who still dives after balls that are 10 feet away and can’t read fly balls (oh yea, Young can also hit a friggin ball). Give the guy a freaking chance, heck, we’ve given Brown 3 or 4 years and your all harping on Young without him even playing a game here. And to those saying he hasn’t played OF in a few years, he has played some, you’re probably the same ones who were crying when we brought Michael Young in as well.
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It’s not like Delmon Young doesn’t have a track record.
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Only Philly is real!!
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I think “snatched up in a instant” is why it’s not likely to be Stutes. Savery and Rosenberg are more likely to slide through, unless the Blue Jays stay in “claim everybody” mode.
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I’m beginning to realize that those of us who have realistic points of view about Devil. Young have been way too kind and way too silent. I hereby resolve to get 1,000 times as nasty and 1,000 times as vocal about Devil Young, who hopefully will strike out every time he gets to the plate for the Phillies.
I’d much rather have Hal Chase on my team.
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Where this Stutes getting DFA’ed coming from? There’s a 0% chance of that happening.
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Satan wasn’t in the line up today I see. Poor guy didn’t have a set back, did he?
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Rollins was absolutely horrific in his base running us out of at least two runs tonight. Did an alien abduct him?
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Another bad loss……Is there any starting outfielder who is worse offensively in baseball than Ben Revere is now?????? How can a left handed batter with his speed lead the league in hitting into double plays?????? I just don’t see how Charlie can play him against left handers at this point.
Also, can’t believe JROLL’s base running blunders this eve. Way to many mistakes. Way to many runners at third with less than two outs who DON’T SCORE. Just another bad loss tonight. This season is looking more like a sub 500 year.
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