General Discussion – Week of 4-21-2013 Keystone “Rivalry” Edition

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Bucs starting tonight. Truly the finest cross-state rivalry in town except hockey and maybe football if they played more. But def. better than basketball.

85 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 4-21-2013 Keystone “Rivalry” Edition”

  1. Jesse Biddle,who had been announced as pitching Tuesday, has a very interesting line through two innings. It’s on milbtv., if you have a subscription.

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    1. Nine K’s through 4 innings. How is he ringing these batters up? Curve ball? Do they show the speed on MILBTV?

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  2. they dont show the speed, but the curves been excellent imo, it is my first time watching him. plus he has 2 doubles and a run… hes 3/4 on the season i think. but ya his pitchings been ridiculous tonight!

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    1. im watching he and pettibone on milb and mlb tvs, gotta be one of the best nights on the pharm in a long time (including pettibone)

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  4. 13 K’s through 6, and he’s still perfect.

    Only 5 hitters have made contact and he’s at 73 pitches.

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  6. wathan just went out to take out biddle but he talked him out of it, i would have been very disappointed had he taken the ball out of his hand. and he gets the k to end his night!

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    1. You’ve got to love a kid that’s not going to give up the ball without a fight. Can’t wait to see him next September.

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    1. Yeah it seems rash to reassess someone’s upside based on a single performance, but 16 K in 7 innings is something special.

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    2. if Biddle dominates the Eastern League he will be in the conversation with the Danny Hultzens of the world.

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  10. What’s the over/under for WIP calls in the next 24 hours advocating Biddle’s immediate call-up to the big club?

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  12. Coming into tonight Dom Brown’s K rate was about 17% and only 40 qualified batters in MLB had a better mark than his 26.1% line drive rate. His BABIP is .250. Is there any reason why we shouldn’t expect some balls to start falling in for him?

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    1. An example of his bad luck tonight was his line drive to left center that should have been a double but Starling Marte( a natural CF playing LF) made a nice play and ran it down.

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    2. Thank you for saying this, Handzus. It’s definitely been a tough start for him, but it’s not like he’s being embarrassed–I mean, he’s not hitting a bunch of pop-ups and striking out a ton. This looks like a BABIP fluke, and I hope he can just grind it out until the hits start falling. Last night, he hit a ball pretty hard up the middle and the pitcher made a nice grab and then he crushed one to right but the wind knocked it down. Too early to give up on Dom. Hopefully the media and the fans don’t get on him too badly and Amaro and Manuel let him get a fair opportunity for once.

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      1. The one thing working in his favor is that there seems to be less attention focused on him than in previous years. If he’s truly been unlucky, there should be enough time for his luck to improve before he finds himself on the bench.

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  13. i realize this isn’t an immediate issue, but biddle and morgan are both lefties. with hamels and lee signed for years, will we really see a starting rotation with four left-handers?

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    1. Been thinking the same thing PYW but still, a good problem to have. I suspect it will work itself out over the next two seasons though, and perhaps sooner depending on whether we’re ‘contending’ leading up to this year’s trade deadline

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  14. Lefties galore! Isn’t Lee’s contract finished after ’14? If only Martin can gain better command….

    Hamels, Lee, Morgan, Biddle….just add water and a good righty. It’ll drive hitters crazy. Even righty hitters don’t like lefties so much…if they are good.

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  15. Lee got 5 years, this is only his 3rd. Lee is going to have trade value this trading deadline, if the Phils are out, he’s getting traded.

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    2. Lee and a few others. One who came to mind yesterday that I hadn’t previously considered is Bastardo.

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    3. Lee certainly would provide a massive return (2 high end prospects+), but you don’t trade an ace level pitcher with 2 years left on his deal (plus a vesting option) unless you are going into a full, multi-year) rebuild mode which the Phils can’t afford to do it.

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      1. Aren’t you being a little overly-optimistic with 2 ‘high end’ prospects?. His age and yearly salary will be detriments to optimal return. IMO, he will garnish 2/3 prospects, but perhaps one high-end and the others more on the risk level.

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        1. Possibly. It certainly it would depend on the club (finaces, depth of system, etc), how many suitors, how desperate the club is, how Lee’s season progresses, who else is on the market etc. But I could envision a scenario where it could happen.

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    4. At his salary, Lee would be less risky to acquire and likely be easier to trade and return more value if he had less than 2+ years remaining on his contract. Even a guy like RAJ, who seems to like guys with 1+ years remaining hasn’t gone that far out contractuallly in trading for a guy, and his last 1+ guy burned him. Lee gives more value to the Phillies than we will get for him this year, especially since we can’t use his $ on the FA market to replace his quality this winter. Lee’s isn’t a problem contract as he is still producing.

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  16. My question is anyone see the game, what was his velocity? and heard he has excellent curve, is that true, only saw biddle once and that was in high school

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    1. I watched the game online and there were no radar readings posted on the screen. But I’d also watched his last start and last night there was definitely an uptick in velocity AND command.

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  17. I wonder about the umpire for that Reading game. The opposing team recorded 15 Ks. If you have a game with 32 combined strikeouts, I have to look at the umpire. Nice game by Biddle though.

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  18. Okay, I went back and watched much of Biddle’s game on archive video on Milb.com (people, if you like scouting our players and you can afford it – $40 per year – this is a must).

    All I can say is – wow – the line was not much of an aberration – he pretty much pitched that well all night. Had it been a big league game, the results might have been similar with fewer strikeouts and a few more hits, but it easily could have been a zero run game. He was that good.

    Here’s the report.

    Has a nearly perfect pitcher’s body. Big, rangy, and strong. Extremely composed and appears highly confident (you would be too if you struck out 16 hitters!) and focused. Gets in rhythm and works quickly, at about the pace of a Cliff Lee. In terms of approach, look, focus, and body language, Biddle is about as good as it gets for a minor leaguer. Now to his pitching.

    Biddle has a true plus curve ball, maybe even a plus plus curve. When he gets promoted to the big leagues (if he’s healthy and does not lose stuff, there’s no question he’ll pitch in the majors), he will have one of the best curves in baseball. It’s of the knee-buckling variety and, when it is well placed and properly set up, is almost unhittable. Really. He has at least above average command of the pitch if last night is any guage and he moves the pitch up and down in the zone, which helps its effectiveness. Just a great pitch.

    With the fast ball, he throws pretty hard with excellent deception and late life. I would say he sits in the low 90s and maybe touches the mid-90s – just like Lee and Hamels. Because of his frame and because he is focusing so much on mechanics, I still think there might be a little more velocity coming on this pitch, but probably not a lot more. Also, he can throw the FB on an upward plane at times, which makes it extremely hard to hit. Command of the FB appears to be above average to plus.

    As for other breaking pitches, believe it or not, in projecting Biddle this might be the key. The change I saw was nothing but an average pitch designed to throw the batter off. He only threw a couple and he needs to be careful with the pitch while it develops. The interesting pitch, and what could end up being the biggest difference with Biddle is a pitch that is probably a cutter. Unlike the curve (which breaks into righties), it broke away from righties. He barely threw it because he was dominating with the curve and fast ball, but when he did throw it, the pitch flashed plus. Not above average . . . plus. If he can develop this pitch and use it effectively along with the plus curve at the at least above average fast ball, well, he’ll have a lot to work with.

    As for a summary and projections, it’s a little unfair to project a pitcher based on the game of his life, but at least it shows us what he can do when he puts it all together. That said, my sense is that, at the very least, Biddle should be a very good 3 – as in a 3 on a championship quality team. More likely, Biddle will be a very good 2, but what I saw last night was a guy who, if everything breaks right, has ace potential. Yes, the ceiling I saw last night was ace stuff. It’s not the most likely outcome – he’s not a Strasburg, Harvey or Mike Moore – but could it happen? Definitely.

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    2. I think we should bring biddle up IF we do make a run in October. He’s 21 and is in his 3rd year in pro ball that is NOT too young. I mean look at bundy, first year in pro ball and he pitched well in the majors. If jesse keeps cruising there is no point of doing the classic phillies “grooming” (wait till he is 23-24-25).

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      2. He probably will not get that type of call up based on roster spot needs (they don’t want to use a 40-man spot before they have to and Joseph and Asche will definitely need them) and the guys in front of him (he would have to leap frog a Martin and Morgan in a likely pen role). Bundy is the most advanced high school pitcher in a decade, and even then the primary reason he got called up was that he was already on the 40 man roster because he signed a big league deal out of the draft.

        That being said Biddle will probably make AAA this year and compete for a rotation spot next spring but will likely be held down for at least long enough to delay free agency but probably long enough to delay arb. But this could all change quickly in trade scenarios that clear out the guys in front of him. He can still polish up the changeup and curveball (at least a 60 pitch) and hopefully start to find a slight tick up in velocity.

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        1. Curve ball is a 75 pitch – no kidding. Fast ball is 60/65. Change is 40. Cutter is 55/70. Command is 60. There’s a lot to like and he deserves to be the number one prospect based on what I saw last night.

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    3. Cutters break in towards opposite handed batters. If it broke away, it’s not a cutter. It sounds like a shuuto, but only Japanese pitchers throw that pitch as far as I know. Maybe it was a 2 seam fastball, or a sinker?

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      1. Thanks, I always thought a cutter broke away. But whatever the heck it was Biddle was throwing that broke away from righties was a really, really good pitch. He threw about 3 or 4 that I saw, but each one was devastating.

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    4. Awesome, thanks for this. I watched the video someone posted from behind home plate, but it’s hard to see exactly what’s happening from that angle.

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  19. IMO, something is seriously wrong with Chase Utley. Not physically, but mentally, he is just not in the game like he used to. I don’t think it is age or health. He used to be the “headiest” player in the game, for example when he cut down that runner at home in the World Series. A couple nights ago Molina he a two hopper to second and Utley moved the opposite direction of the ball, but there was no real reason to why he got such a bad read on the ball and then the next night he had that awful base running mistake on Michael Young’s flyball to left in which he didn’t know how many outs there were. In the same game, he had a throwing error on a play to second that he makes routinely 99 times out of 100. What do you guys think is wrong?

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    2. I can’t take comments like this seriously. On the previous play he tug up from first. So I’m using that to say his head is still in the game.

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      1. Sure, but for every heads up play so far, there have been just as many gaffs, that he usually does not make. Every player makes mistakes but for years his mistakes have been few and far between, so its weird to see so many in the span of two games

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        2. The base running mistake was bad and extremely uncharacteristic. The throwing error is just something he does from time to time. Same with misplaying a ball or two. Maybe he’s had something on his mind or maybe it’s just a coincidence that he’s had a few mistakes bunched together. Either way, I’m not worried about anything except his health. Overall, he’s looked good at the plate, in the field and on the bases. Rollins has also looked fast, smart and effective on the bases and in the field. I love watching those two guys play and I’m glad to see them both having some late career success.

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    3. This just seems like making a big deal out of nothing. It was just a few mistakes. Yes, they happened close together and yes, it’s weird. But weird things happen sometimes. If it continues for longer than a few days, maybe we can be concerned then.

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      1. There’s also, as usual in these cases, a forest/trees issue. Utley has been, by far, the team’s best player thus far this season. He’s playing better than he has since 2009. Even if the numbers are somehow “missing” some mistakes*, they don’t – couldn’t – even begin to mitigate all the positives in his performance to date.

        *And we DO now have stats that measure base running – and they show him, overall, still better than average as a base runner.

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        1. You know those base running numbers don’t mean much 19 games in. One or two instances of getting doubled up at second the way he did could go a long way toward erasing that small fraction of a run above average. Same with a bad error or two re defensive metrics.

          I’m not disagreeing with you — Utley still seems to me to be as good a base runner as anyone and solid as always in the field.

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        2. I’m almost shocked by this post LarryM! And here I thought you believed Utley was completely washed up!?!!!

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            1. And to all of those who just love a great, throw-back, old fashioned baseball player who goes about his business the right way. What a great player is Mr. Utley.

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            2. Yes, he is all things to all people.

              Seriously though, I love Utley too. He’s been my favorite player from this current Phillies core. I just think the fawning over him is occasionally over the top and gets tiresome. Although it’s not really here. It’s more on a few other prominent Phillies sites.

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            3. Let me tell you something, you can watch baseball for a long time and never see a position player as good as Utley on your team. I grew up outside of NYC and watched the Mets from the early 70s to around 1991 or so and have followed the Phillies ever since. Utley is the best position player I’ve ever rooted for – and it’s not particuarly close. He’s a joy to watch and, yes, I follow the SABR side too and am well aware of his SABR virtues. No matter what you like, Utley’s right up there. And, like so many great players, he has had great moments on the big stage too – the fake throw, the 5 homers in the 2009 series. Utley’s been incredible.

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            4. Well said. I’m a bit younger than you. By time I’m your age we’ll all probably we praying for someone who can even approach Utley’s performance at his peak. We’ve been lucky recently to be able to root for a couple generational type players like Utley and Halladay.

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            5. It’s funny the extent to which his reputation among the analytically inclined exceeds his even high reputation among the non analytically inclined. The only thing I’m inclined to question even a little though are the insane defensive numbers. Clearly he has been, mainly because of positioning, a much better defensive player than recognized, but is he really 100 runs better than average defensively over the course of his career? I don’t know.

              His 5 year peak, if you buy the value that WAR places on him, is top ten all time among second basemen, maybe top 5.

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  20. @Evan. I agree. On the wild pitch he didn’t wave Pettibone home until he was half way there. Almost like he forgot that he was on third. I’m thinking that can’t be right because Utley is left-handed ans he looking down the third base line.

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    1. I noticed that too. He kinda just stood there looking down, treating the situation like there was no runner. I think maybe he didn’t see it get away, but if he’d been thinking about the runner he would have probably been paying more attention. There’s no doubt he’s appeared a bit spacey lately, but I just don’t see any reason to think something is seriously wrong like Evan said.

      Like I said above, it could just be an unfortunate coincidence or it’s entirely possible that something else in his life is occupying his mind right now. The only possible reason I can think of to be concerned about some kind of long-term deterioration in the mental parts of his game involve a freak injury or illness or something equally unlikely. Otherwise you’re saying he’s just forgotten how to play or suddenly stopped caring, or something like that.

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      1. The ball almost hit him on the leg/foot, and I think he thought he was going to get hit but it sneaked past him. That was my take. If you’re expecting a ding on the leg and none comes, it might catch you off guard for a moment.

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        1. I think I just don’t have enough to do today, because not only did I watch the video a few more times but I searched for other videos with Utley batting when a runner comes home on wild pitch.

          I think you’re basically right. He doesn’t seem to react to a wild pitch behind him until he hears the catcher scrambling to get it. In this case, the ball shot away so quickly that Pettibone was well on his way home by time that happened. I found another one where the same thing happens and the runner is home before he has a chance to wave him at all.

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  22. Brad, the basketball rivalry would be covered by Villanova/Pittsburgh in the Big East. Sorry I accidently hit post.

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    1. That’s way better than Phils/Bucs. Too bad Pitt is leaving that conference. The St Joe’s/Duquesne matchup will have to suffice.

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  23. Oh no hopefully not another LarryM praise wammy. Hopefully Chase is immune because Mayberry sure wasn’t. Utley has put up decent numbers on a really consistant basis unlike the last couple of seasons where Chase had become really streaky. Here are some early full season projections;
    runs hits hr rbi bb so
    Rollins 64 168 8 56 32 128
    Revere 64 136 0 32 32 96
    Utley 80 176 24 120 48 80
    Howard 50 152 8 48 18 136
    Young 64 184 8 40 56 104
    May/Nix 96 160 24 72 64 208
    Brown 48 104 16 48 64 88
    Kra/Quin 56 96 16 72 8 160

    Rollins really is striking out way out of norm for him. I can see why we haven’t scored much but am optimistic things will get much better as players get closer to career production and the addition of Ruiz.

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    1. i know it’s early, but i had no idea revere was this pathetic offensively (one extra-base hit in 20 games). twice in the past few games he’s come up with a man on third and no outs, and hasn’t gotten a ball out of the infield. you’d think charlie would try a suicide squeeze. he’s never going to hit a fly ball in that situation.

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      1. I think if Revere isn’t hitting first or second, he might as well be hitting 8th. He’s not a guy I’m happy to see at the plate in an RBI situation. Or, really, at all, given his performance so far this year. I do think he can and will turn it around a bit though.

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  24. To people who watch a lot of minor league games: was Dom always this bad defensively? I was under the impression as he made his way through the system that he was a ‘five tool’ player, but defense is most definitely not in his tool box.

    He just misplayed a ball like a guy who’s never played the position before. I like the guy and want to be on his bandwagon. I haven’t given up on his bat yet, but there’s really no getting around the fact that he is a bad fielder.

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    1. Dom’s “bad routes” have been an issue for years. Brown is also not as good in left where he is still getting used to tracking the ball off the bat and the spin. He’s much better in right where his arm plays better and he is used to tracking the ball – in fact, I think he’s probably just below average there as opposed to being well below average in left. Believe it or not, he has improved a bit. The hope is that he becomes an offensive force and ultimately becomes average as fielder with his fielding being slightly below average and his arm being nearly elite. That’s the hope. Brown’s a mystery at this point and I love the guy. Who knows?

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  25. I can’t watch the
    phillies anymore,too frustrated, runners on revere pops up, michael young who can almost always hit to right side, pulls the ball with firstand third and no outs, and my real reason is john mayberry who some on here like, he is hitting 142 with runners on, and 182 with runners in scoring postion,sorry but mayberry is almost thirty,and still cant hit a slider or breaking ball, how could a team that spends 179 million, go into a season with this outfield, just dont understand, and the lack of spending in international market is biting them in the rear, when guys ,who always defend them, say they have drafted low, then thats more reason to find another outlet for talent, and spend on top international talent, this team and owners really screwed up a nice team, with no foresite on replacing aging players, ,

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    1. roccom sockem…..’just dont understand, and the lack of spending in international market is biting them in the rear,’…..that was under the old CBA system…the new CBA monetary restrictions should equal the playing field…teams like the Yankees, Braves, Rangers et al will have to tow the line and depend more so on quality scouting. Phillies, hopefully, will be better for it. Still however, results may not be seen for 3 to 5 years down the road.

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