Box Score Recap – 4/21/2013

Box Score Recap

Pettibone starting in Philly today. Exciting day for him and, (to an admittedly lesser extent), for all of us who have followed him closely for the last several years.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB. I’ll post the graphic when I get back to a PC this afternoon. I’m out of pocket at the moment.

 http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130421

4-21-13 boxscores

75 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 4/21/2013”

  1. Hopefully he can pitch well enough to stick around a couple starts and not have to force the hand of Ruben to start Morgan’s “clock”. Being overly optimistic, I hope he can pitch well much like Kendrick in 2008.

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    1. What would be wrong with starting Morgan’s clock? It’s not like he’s a 20-21 year old stud. He’s a 23 year old college pitcher that could help the team out. I have zero issues with starting his clock this year.

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      1. Depends on if you believe his addition helps the phillies reach the playoffs. If he adds 1/2 a win over Pettibone right now, and you don’t make the playoffs either way, there was no point in bringing him up until September. Developmentally, he’ll benefit from the year in AAA, still get a month of MLB experience in September, and unless that 1/2 game gets you to the playoffs, it wasn’t worth it. (anything short of the playoffs is a losing season).

        Well that’s my 2c anyway.

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        1. I think it depends mostly upon where you believe he would be best served developmentally. I’m mostly agnostic on that, leaning slightly towards giving him more time in AAA. He has pitched only 54 2/3 innings above A ball.

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        2. 1/2 a game? How do u decide if Adam Morgan is 1/2 a game better than Pettibone? I say add Morgan to the 40 man now. Who will they remove for the 40an roster that will hurt their chances to win now? No one. They won’t win now as along as RAJ and Charlie remain.

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          1. I was being complimentary saying he’d be a half game better. My logic goes like this, to move the WAR needle, whichever player it is will have to play more then 8 games. In order for either player to start for more then 8 games (when Lannan returns), he’s going to have to put up an ERA around 4. Which we’ll say for this arguement is the minimum which Pettibone will set. Do you reasonably expect Morgan to pitch that much better then an ERA of 4 in his first year in the league without having spent a whole season above A ball? Lets be rational, I know you’re mad about the phillies performance so far this year. Shit, we all are, but lets try and stay calm and rational.

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      2. Morgan is ready to be a major leaguer now and would be an upgrade. Starting the clock now should be of no concern, especially since they’ve already games his FA clock for 2013 (by not bringing him up to start the season). He wouldn’t be a free agent until prior to the 2020 season. Do we really care about that? I think that’s the least of the team’s concerns right now. They just want to make sure he’s ready to roll.

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        1. By the way, if Pettibone is okay, i could easily see a scenario where he and Morgan could be on the big league team. If Valdes were sent down, Pettibone could be the long man and Morgan could step into the rotation. Back in the old days, teams often developed young pitching by putting guys in relief at the beginning of their big league careers – this was often the norm (even Pedro Martinez was developed in this manner). I don’t see any reason why this still should not work and if you asked Pettibone, I’m sure he’d much rather being relieving in Philly than starting in AAA.

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          1. That said, truthfully, I’d be shocked if the Phillies did that. I think they’d sooner send Pettibone back to AAA and call up DeFratus, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing although, frankly, I’d rather see DeFratus replace Durbin, who has nothing left in the tank. He’s completely done as far as I can tell.

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          3. Agree 100%. I’d rather develop a young player as a reliever than keep a “retread” like Valdes just bc Charlie likes older players.

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      3. You haven’t heard?

        The Phillies are a “small market” team. Money is tight.

        Remember when David Montgomery publicly stated that about 13 years ago? Bill Giles also called Philadelphia a “small market”. I then heard Ed Wade say the same thing on his Saturday “General Managers Show” on the radio pre-game.

        All three of them are still running the Phillies. I’ve noticed that a lot of Phillies fans are completely unaware that Ed Wade and Pat Gillick are still with the team. The board ops here keep removing my posts about that.

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        4. Although I agree with you that your posts should not be removed as I find them to be very entertaining even though I don’t agree with 95% of them, I do believe you are referencing comments from before there was this thing called Citizens Bank Park and the promise of a very lucrative television contract coming up shortly. CBP changed things financially because Veterans Stadium was a very city friendly contractual agreement and not team friendly, not to mention the low attendance. I have not personally heard anyone associated with the Phillies claim they are “small market” for at least 10-12 years.

          You complain about Ed Wade and Pat Gillick, but the one person we all should be complaining about is the guy who is potentially proving to be the worst GM this organization has ever seen and that is RAJ. I would take Gillick in a heartbeat over Amaro, and I could live with a coin flip to see who takes the job between Wade and RAJ. Ideally, I’d have Wade run the draft and manage all the scouting, and I’d have Gillick responsible for the management of the major league roster and 40 man, and send Amaro back to Stanford to do graduate work in Statistics.

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  2. All those that said the Pettibone would beat Cosart to the big leagues, please go to the Phillies box office and pick up your prize. How about Knapp… wait… Trevor May? Could you say it in 2008, 2009, 2010? I guess based on draft slot, somebody knew. Pettibone was a 3rd rounder, May, a 4th and Cosart a 38th. Knapp was a 2nd rounder. I’ll go on record that I thought all those other guys would be better baseball players and that Pettibone wouldn’t see the show. Better baseball players still remains to be seen (except Knapp, he’s gone.) but for now, he’s first.

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    1. Keeping the faith! Some here just “knew” he’d do well at the plate. (Me, too) Asche was named the best hitter among our prospects. So it’s not surprising.

      Watching M, Young plating….he shows the best bat control mid-lineup. Hate to not re-sign him for ’14 at least…assuming he continues his good play this season.Maybe Asche & Young will play in ’14 while Asche beaks in slowly. Could be a problem at 3rd base….a good problem to have.

      P.S. Congrats to PP (James) who spoke out for Asche before and during that draft.

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      1. Wow, Art, losing the faith on Asche? I have him penciled in as the regular at third base. 🙂

        M. Young … I was never as down on him as I was on D. Young, and I did expect somewhat of a rebound. He has certainly played better than I expected. His power has not rebounded, but his BB rate is, if he sustains it (it will likely regress some) would be a career high. Of course his BA represents most of his value, and, yes, that WILL regress. (Interestingly, his K rate is uncharacteristically high.) The question is how much. While he is a high BABIP guy for his career, his career mark is “only” .335, and his best season .367; he won’t sustain his current .400 rate. But even so, as I said from the start he is likely to end up with better hitting performance than 2012.

        The real story, though, is that his fielding has been merely poor, rather than horrendous. Putting all that together, he’s likely to be a little better than expected for the team.

        But there is no way I want to see him back. I’ve defended in other contexts retaining some of the team’s other veterans, but why would you want to retain a xx old player in his decline phase when you have one major league ready (next year) prospect at his position, and another, even better, prospect who may be ready by 2015?

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  4. Morgan is 23 , if he is pitching the best at AAA , add him to the 40 man roster and bring him up . I”m sure there are plenty of duds they can remove from the 40 man roster.

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  5. If you keep Morgan in AAA for just a couple more months he won’t run into arbitration a year early as a super 2. Hard to see them holding him back if they feel they can win this year and they need him, but it’s worth saving potentially several million in 2016 IMO since the team is going to lose because of bats this year, not pitching. One more injured starter might force their hand, unless they want Martin at that moment.

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    1. I still Morgan pitches next time around unless Pettibone pitches real well. Still not sure what Phillies were thinking letting Morgan throw 100 pitches last time out. Limit him 65 and he is pitching today because he earned it. That is how it should be.

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    2. Yeah, I don’t think like that. If Morgan can upgrade the pitching, then the hitting doesn’t need to be quite as good for the team to win the games he pitches. Also, we are a long way from being into the heart of the season and I actually think the hitting will evolve (to a certain extent) and additional players may be brought up or acquired. The first year the Giants won the WS, during the year they acquired or promoted Bumgarner, Burrell, Ross, Posey, and Torres and it turned the year around for them. This roster could evolve in a similar fashion, we’ll just have to wait and see.

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  6. Clearwater’s mostly Right handed lineup hitting well early, against mostly RH pitching. The Left hander in the line-up, is the only one struggling. Chris Serritella has 1 walk, and 19 Ks in 77 PA’s. Pretty bad, considering most of that is against RH pitching.

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    1. Yeah. Ideally a 23 year old college 1B would force his way to Reading this year since there’s really no one blocking him. Not that he was the “1B of the future” coming into this year, but it woulda been nice. Maybe he’ll go on a tear.

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      1. Those numbers are pretty bad but, to be fair, he did skip a level so he’ll need some time to adjust.. He had nice numbers at Wport last year,.

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  7. Some exciting things in Altherr’s start to the season particularly the increased walk rate. Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks to see if this can survive a small sample size

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    1. His BABIP is a ridiculously high .417 right now. Expect a major regression, however it is nice to see him have a hot start.

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      1. I am not very good with this BABIP but isn’t BABIP always higher then the avg and where do you say thats the right BABIP for someones avg? Just a question.

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          1. Some hitters can legitimately achieve a higher than average BABIP though. Altherr’s current number is unsustainable, but he’s a speedy guy who’s hitting more line drives this year. His BABIP last year was .310, so it’s not unreasonable to say he could finish the season with a higher BABIP than that.

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            1. Altherr’s LD% is 22% this season, compared to 13% in both 2011 and 2012. Clearly he’s squaring the ball up better … let’s hope it continues.

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        2. BABIP is dependent on a lot of factors including but not limited to line drive rate, ground ball rate, speed, home run rate, and overall contact ability. It normalizes over a long period of time. I would expect someone of Altherr’s skill set to top out at a BABIP around .370 or so in A ball, but likely closer to the .340 area. The record highest career BABIP is around.370 though occasionally someone like Mike Trout or Austin Jackson will approach .400 for a season. To get a better grasp of it I would just go to the Fangraphs profiles for a bunch of players you feel comfortable with and looking at their career numbers (I suggest at least bringing up Jimmy Rollins on your list and look how his decline in BABIP corresponds with his rise in infield fly rate)

          As for pitchers their BABIP against is less personalized (though there certainly is variation), and for the most part on the major league level most BABIPs will normalize to around .300.

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          1. Good information thanks all! So if someone improves from the previous year there is not really any comparison, I mean .400 BABIP for .250 hitter is unsustainable but for a .340 hitter it would be not out of the question. It’s something that can change from year to year?

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            1. A .400 BABIP is not sustainable for anyone over the long run. If we are talking about career numbers, at the major league levels, anything above .330 or so is relatively rare, and the best over the last 50 plus years (3000 PA minimum) is, curiously enough, Joey Votto at .360.

              But even more to the point, and this goes double for minor league players, one has to be VERY careful projecting future BABIP from past BABIP. the sample sizes needed for BABIP to be meaningfully predictive even at the major league level are quite high (as in a couple of full seasons at least, and even there the most accurate projections will include some regression to the mean). For minor leaguers it’s worse; for a number of reasons (poor fielding is one), some minor league players tend to BABIP much better in the minors than they do in the majors (true of most stats, but more so for BABIP).

              That said, Altherr has the characteristics of someone who might have a pretty good BABIP. But the optimistic take on that is that he might have a major league BABIP in the .330 range. However, obviously a higher BABIP is still a good thing; I’d add that his BB rate is up, his K rate is down, and his ISO up a little. So far, SSS caveat, but we seem to be seeing an across the board improvement in his hitting. Even when, not if, his BA regresses somewhat, he’ll still be looking like a much better prospect than at the beginning of the season.

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            2. And as for “changing” from year to year, BABIP is volatile, notoriously so, but mostly as a result of chance rather than any change in talent.

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  8. asches last 10 games
    AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
    .342 38 4 13 2 0 0 2 3 6 1 0 .390 .395 .785

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  9. The ‘1st baseman of the future’ isn’t looking like the hitter that was predicted to ‘mash’ mlb pitching and be the saviour of the 2013 Phillies lineup.

    Darin Ruf, AAA: 65 PA’s, 4 walks, 17 K’s, .295 OBP, .688 OPS, 26.2 K%, 6.1% BB

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    1. Maybe I am thinking way outside the long-term startegic box, but if Asche gets to the Phillies as a 3rd baseman, say 2014, and the Phillies want to give him every benefit of the doubt to stay there, then perhaps the first baseman of the future could be Mikael Franco.

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      1. Franco’s got better range and a better arm at 3B than Asche. His bat would be wasted at first. If anything, I could see the Phils trying Asche at 2B again or even LF if they want to squeeze both players onto a lineup card down the line.

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      2. I don’t think the Phillies have a bat in the minor leagues, that profiles as the 1B of the future. And that’s alright. You can sign a 1B, for a reasonable price.
        Putting Franco at 1B, would not be productive, since he has a good glove. Asche or Franco will get traded in the next two years.

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        1. I agree with you about us not having a 1B of the future. But you make it sound like picking up an above average player at 1B is easy.

          Here’s a better question, how many 1B players averaged 2 WAR over the previous 3 years in the league?

          Well, I asked myself the same question… and guess what…after doing some excel calculations there are only 10 from 2010 through 2012. And here I thought a 2WAR average would be considered an average starter. Apparently a 2WAR is well above average.

          The total of 10 only increases to 12 at 1.74 WAR.

          After reading over these statistics I’ve learned that at 1B (i didn’t evalute the other positions) either Baseball Reference’s calculation of WAR undervalues 1B more then they should be, or we all should adjust our expectations as to what an “average” player really is in the non-steroid era.

          For 3 year average WAR … a 1.35 WAR is an average “regular”, 1.5-2.0 is above average, and 2.0-4 is Occasional All-Star, and 4-5 is a regular All-Star, 5+ MVP potential (There are only 2 1B in the league over 5 in the last 3 years and both are regular MVP candidates, Joey Votto @ 6.17 and Albert Pujols @ 5.67)

          That for me really put things into perspective, hopefully it does for others on this site.

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          1. WAR is not a stat, that I put a lot of weight in, when judging firstbaseman. I recall seeing Mark Texiera come in under 2.5 WAR, when he hit 35 HRs, drove in 100 RBis and won the gold glove.
            As far as signing a 1B, there is always some older 1b or OF, that is still producing, that signs for less than 2 years/10m per, every season

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            1. The HR’s and Gold Glove (while subjective) I agree, would tend to be indiciative of a player with over a 2.5 WAR. I’d have to look at the components. The most difficult measure to be accurate with is defensive statistics as I’m sure you know. Is that the reason you suggest discounting WAR for 1B?

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          2. WAR at first base is a weird thing, much like defensive metrics in LF. The reason is the high end at the position. WAR is ultimately a comparitive metric, so the higher the competition at a position the bigger the gap, additionally much like LF the gap between a good and bad defensive first baseman is huge. For example in 2011 Adrian Gonzalez saved 17 more runs than Prince Fielder. Also because of the defensive spectrum an average regular at first baseman is worth less than an average regular at short stop, the 2 WAR average player is not position specific though it tends to be.

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    2. Funny how you decide to post that line AFTER Ruf had a few rough outings. Any other players you wanna tear into? So true what Gillies said what he said on Twitter, bunch of elitist pricks on here btw.

      Do you morons realize that April doesn’t mean squat on stats? Don’t know how many times guys got off to slow starts only to get into a groove in May/June. Or also how guys have got April’s, then don’t do squat the rest of the year. Wait 2 months or so, then go get your panties in a bunch in your mommy’s basement. Everyone here is all about the “small sample size”, yet want to jump down someone’s throat the minute they’re not producing.

      There’s my two cents, bash me if you want, call me a racist, etc, I tell it like it is. If you don’t like it, tough squat.

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      2. Why would you be called a racist?

        A lot of the posts on the daily box scores do overreact to SSS, but if you don’t like hearing that kind of talk, why would you read the daily boards? What are you expecting to come here and see?

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    3. Also: As much as Dom Brown has struggled in the majors, so far this year, he may be on his way to hitting better at his level than Ruf is at AAA.

      Dom Brown MLB: 17.2% K%, 10.9% BB%, .250 BABIP, 313 OBP, 663 OPS

      Darin Ruf AAA : 26.2% K%, 6.1% BB%, .310 BABIP, 295 OBP, .688 OPS

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      1. He’s having a better year, but Brown’s drop off from spring training has really shocked me. I really thought he turned a corner and was optimistic for a +.800 OPS this year (though obviously with the SSS I’m not yet too concerned.)

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        1. If Brown had a normal BABIP of something in the 300-310 range his OPS would be approaching 800. He is not off to a great start, but he is holding his own. My guess is somewhere in the .260, 20 HR, 775 OPS area based on his start. I think he will improve some once he realizes that his spot in the lineup is secure.

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          1. I agree about the low BABIP normalizing, but what I liked most about spring training other then his defensive performance was the huge power he displayed. His ISO right now is hovering around 100, not nearly where it’d need to be for 20HR. In spring he looked like a .280/.350/.450 player for sure. But that assumes an ISO of 170.

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  10. saw 2 games in richmond this weekend and didn’t see much in the way of exciting future talent. rosin was ok. 89-91 fastball with good command. didn’t walk anybody which probably cost him the game. he was 3-2 on richmond’s cleanup hitter with 2 out and a man on second and he challenged him and got dinged. a more experienced pitcher might have been more careful, accepted a walk and moved on to the next guy. maybe a learning experience. he is a huge kid. if he makes it, it will be probably as a bullpen guy.

    jim murphy and duran were the only two hitters who looked dangerous. i didn’t see the game where hewitt and collier got extra base hits. i don’t think that hewitt will ever be an adequate fielder. he looks to be south of dom brown in that regard, so if he ever hits enough (he does seem to be getting better, but too slowly, the clock is running on him) he would have to play in the american league. just as i am afraid we will see shortly with delmon young. duran looks good all around and he could make the big leagues but he is not a needle mover.

    mario hollands was the best pitcher i saw, striking out 5 of 6 batters in a cleanup role sunday. funky delivery.

    biddle looks very svelte at 215. says good things about his maturity and dedication that he went out and got a new body over the winter. didn’t see him pitch as his turn didn’t come up this weekend.

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  11. Any predictions to what Pettibones ERA and wins will look like if he plays the rest of the year? Im guessing he goes something like 10-10 with a 5 ERA

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    1. i’d be ecstatic if he went 10-10. but if his ERA is 5, his record will be a lot worse than that, given the mediocrity of the phillies’ offense.

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      1. +1

        10-10 would also assume he starts for the rest of the year, if that’s the case, he’ll have to do a whole lot better then an ERA of 5.0 … For him to start the rest of the year he’s going to need an ERA much closer to 4 then 5. I’m figuring he’ll end up with a 4.8, and be pulled after 8 starts with 3 wins.

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      2. Extreme SSS but his ERA is almost 10 with a WHIP well above 2 in AAA, so it’s not reasonable to expect 10-10 and a 5 ERA in the bigs. My guess is that Pettibone gets at most 2 starts in the majors this year. My second guess is that he has some sort of injury.

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          1. i am absolutely in agreement!!! best night ive had since i started following this site 3 summers ago!

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  13. Could it be that the baseball gods are hearing our bright thoughts Re: Biddle??!!

    This writer said, not too many days ago, for some strange reason I said that he would add 2 mph on his fast ball in ’13……could this be happening?

    IF he keeps this up for a month or two he could be moved up to AAA LV in mid or late season.

    Mr. Kershaw: you may soon have a twin in Philly.

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    1. Wow, one crazy game and Biddle is the chosen one? Compared to Kershaw? Give me a break. I would be happy if he develops into Jon Lester.

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    2. He is nowhere near Kershaw’s league. The guy that he reminds me of is Texas’s Matt Harrison. The story tonight was not the fastball (which seems to be more consistently in the low-90s), it was the curveball which got few Zito comps last night (Zito’s curveball in his prime was the best in the game and the only reason he still has a career). Biddle ha great command of the pitch and can throw it for strikes as well as bury it for swings and misses.

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  15. Great game by Biddle tonight but hit the brakes on the Clayton Kershw comps. He has not had a game like thiis in his professional career. Is this a blip or is he really developing as a pitcher and….. possibly increasing his FB. Or did he just have all of his pitches working. Let us see if he can pitch at a high level, not quite this level, but a high level through the next month or through the season.

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  16. “I don’t like to use the word ‘dominant’ so much, but it’s the most in control I’ve felt for sure,” he said. “In control of my emotions, in control of my composure, in control of the baseball, all that stuff. It all starts with my delivery. If I can get that down, I can get the ball going where I want it too.”

    Biddle with control that good can be a great pitcher even in the very low 90s. Add a velocity uptick, even a small one and we’re talking about a front of the rotation guy.

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