The 2011 Phils’ Draft class is a mixed bag so far this year, (and for their careers). Roman Quinn has 2 HR, (and seven errors), Larry Greene has 1 hit, (and 6 ks), Adam Morgan and Cody Asche are in AAA, Austin Wright’s on the shelf and Harold Martinez is OPSing under .500 in CLR, Kenny Giles was hurt and is back but was pulled Saturday after 2 batters. Mitch Walding looking pretty good so far, Tyler Greene is back in XST, and Braden Shull has pitched 1 professional inning.
Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130420
Phuture Phillies 
Not a great start to the season on the farm. Maikel Franco’s early performance is heartening, and I’ve been on the Adam Morgan bandwagon for awhile. I hope to see him filling Lannan’s turn in the rotation by the end of next week.
That’s pretty much all of the players I’m excited about. I still think Tocci has a bright future and should get a little more exposure to the low-A level before getting bumped down, but I had hoped he could build off last year’s performance. Tyson Gillies has been a huge disappointment and I suspect his time with the organization is short. I had tabbed him as a potential quick mover prior to the season, but I don’t see it anymore.
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No love for Cesar or Biddle? I can understand if you just think this is luck for Cesar and still view him as a utility player at best, but Jesse has had a good start whereas he usually starts slow.
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Yep, Cesar H. has been doing it for awhile, its not an anomaly .
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What has he been “doing for a while?” He’s been hitting a ton of singles, over 60 PA. For singles rate, 60 PA is nothing. His other offensive numbers are uniformly mediocre or poor.
None of this is to say that he isn’t a prospect. A discussion a couple of weeks ago clarified my thinking on this, and, while I still think the most likely possibilities for him are AAAA or utility or second division regular for a couple of years, I can see how, with some further development, there is a chance he could be more than that.
But his 2013 performance so far, even if I was to put any real weight on it (I don’t after only 60 PA) wouldn’t raise my opinion of his chances.
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LarryM…..I think what Del was refering to was over his MiLB career of 1992 PAs, with a slash of .292/.346/.385/.730…..115 XBH, however stll with lots of ‘singles’.
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I probably should have thrown Biddle a bone. I suspect I didn’t because he’s basically doing what he’s supposed to be doing. Franco and Morgan are delightful surprises (not really, but compared to Biddle…).
When I squint, I still don’t see Hernandez being better than a 2 win player. Which is wonderful to have when your franchise 2B may or may not be returning next season, but I’m hardly giddy over it.
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Aaron Altherr’s early performance has also been exciting.
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“I still think Tocci has a bright future and should get a little more exposure to the low-A level before getting bumped down”
Tocci has struck out 7 times in 58 AB.
Larry Greene has whiffed 6 times in TEN AB.
If the Phillies farm crew is looking for guys to demote it’s really easy to find better candidates than Carlos Tocci. The only thing Tocci needs to do is make regular trips to the weight room. Even with the emaciated upper body he’s drawn three walks (don’t tell Ruben Amaro).
Why isn’t Andrew Pullin at Lakewood?
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Tocci’s K rate is 11 percent. If you’re going to point to a reason he should be demoted (and yes, he probably is in over his head), look at the .017 ISO and .172 BA. As for Greene … 10 ABs (13 PA). If you’re advocating a demotion due to this sample, I’m glad you’re not running the farm.
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Pullin isn’t at Lakewood because they want to get him to really work on playing second base defensively. In Extended Spring Training they can give him more attention to work on things
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It’s more a question of development. There’s the mental aspect where you want your prospects to own a level before moving on. He’s struggling to reach base but he’s not showing any skills regression. Given his age and experience, a demotion to Williamsport makes a lot of sense if he doesn’t go on a tear soon.
They did a similar thing with Domingo Santana once upon a time.
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thats my feeling on Tocci. He will struggle against stronger pitchers until he adds some weight. Have not seen him in person yet just on video…but I am concerned about his narrow frame.
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2-3 with a double today … I doubt he’ll develop into a power hitter, but with his length, he should fill out enough to provide some decent pop considering his hit tool.
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Not at all worried about Gillies yet. His k/bb rate is 1 (SSS but still, that’s impressive), his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and HES ACTUALLY ON THE FIELD.
The only issue with Gillies right now is the fact that his BABIP is lower than the Marlin’s winning percentage. That’s just not even close to sustainable. And its not like he’s getting the bat knocked out of his hands either, his ISO is basically the same its always been over the course of his career.
Once his BABIP normalizes, he’ll be fine.
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Looks like Asche is starting to heat up a little. This is good news. Also was Quinn’s homer outside the park? That’d be nice from the left side.
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That was my first thought about Quinn’s HR too. From reading the recap at the Blue Claws site it appears the answer is yes so give Quinn credit for one legit bomb.
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Have the coaches at Reading tinkered with Hewitt’s swing? Perhaps shortened it up a little? Looking at the box scores every day, it seems as if he’s making far better contact with less power than previous years.
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I think our heads might explode if he keeps this up.
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His K rate isn’t much better. His BB rate, still below average, is much better. Just looking at the numbers.
I already rained on Hernandez’ parade, so I shouldn’t do the same to Hewitt, and the increased BB rate, if sustained, is a good sign. Still he needs to start showing some power.
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As for “better” contact, I am somewhat of an agnostic. But he CAN’T maintain his current BA, even if he is making “better” contact. And if he is sacrificing power for better contact … I can’t say it’s a bad trade off, necessarily, but if he is to regain prospect status, he pretty much needs to improve across the board. Better contact, more contact, better plate discipline, AND maintain or even increase his power.
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Just a small caveat, it’s quite possible and even common for hitters to sustain unusually high BABIPs in the minors. That said, your general point is valid, take the numbers with a grain of salt.
As I noted a few days ago, if Hewitt can maintain those K and BB rates at the MLB level while boosting his ISO about .50-.80, then he is roughly a 2 win player. It wasn’t that long ago that the list of “ifs” for Hewitt was preposterous.
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There was a write-up on him on Philly.com this morning. He said he was hurt last year.
Anyway, we’ve been down this road with Hewitt. Wake me when he’s hitting 300 in June.
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My question who is a better SS prospect Edgar Duran age 22 .326 at AA or
Roman Quinn age 20 .246 at Lo A
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LMAO
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Roman Quinn hands down. Duran is nothing special who is a prospect because he plays SS. It is nice to see him do something but he lacks any real major league tools. Quinn’s speed is a real weapon, he has more power, a better arm, and likely has better hit tool as well. Duran has to be a good defender to be a prospect, Quinn will be a prospect in CF. Don’t use small sample size batting average arguments to determine prospect value.
Just enjoy what Duran has done so far.
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“Quinn will be a prospect in CF”
My first thought was to scoff at this. Then I remembered that the Phillies current CF is sporting a .493 OPS.
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Does Quinn really have more power though? Obviously Quinn is the better prospect, but he seems to get a lot of his XBHs due to his speed more than an ability to hit the ball far.
I like that Duran has become a guy that deserves a look in the nightly box scores, but his season so far comes with 2 large red flags in his increased K rate and decreased BB rate. He seems ripe for regression.
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There were some people who’s scouting opinions I trust at the game yesterday who would put a future 40-45 on it. That isn’t monstrous but Duran hasn’t exactly been crushing it over his career. The swing has good leverage and is quick. You have to remember that they have been having Quinn working on bunting for hits a lot lately (I don’t know why, but it is definitely a useful skill to have)
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Quinn’s Williamsport ISO doubled Duran’s from 2010: .127 to .064. The slash lines were .281/.370/.408 to .235/.269/.299. Duran never slugged above .357 before this season (13 games).
I like Duran as much as the next guy, but they’re not even close.
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Pettibone up to take Lannan’s spot. #babyaces
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YOU could shut out the Pirates.
Maybe Pettibone can keep them under six runs over five innings.
How can anyone look at what Amaro is doing and not consider the idea that he is deliberately trying to lose games?
It must be great being the GM of a team that offers lifetime employment after you’ve been publicly replaced as GM.
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Don’t look now….but the Buccos are on a small run…gave the Braves a run for their money.
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Who was he supposed to call up? It’s one start. If he’s good he gets another one if he’s bad Morgan gets the call.
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anyone see watson today??
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Good win for the Phils tonight……Thought Kendrick looked good again. Still trying to keep the faith with this team. However, I think what we are seeing in April is what we will be seeing throughout the season. Decent starting pitching. A pretty good back end of the bullpen. A offense that can score 6-8 runs one game and get shut out by a no-name the next game. Looking forward to seeing Pettibone tomorrow.
FYI MLB Draft 2013 is in 6 weeks. I still think the #16 pick is going to be a high risk /high upside HS outfielder. Hope it is not a Jeff Jackson/Reggie Taylor/Greg Golson/Anthony Hewitt Clone.
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I want to dare and go for Aaron Judge….the next Dave Kingman!
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I’m a little more optimistic than you are but not much. I see this team at this point winning around 84 or 85 games. I’ve shaved 2 games offof my pre-season prediction because of the results of games already played, and 2 games because of concerns about Howard and Halladay.
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I still think 90 wins is still possible. I want to wait and see how the team performs once they get Ruiz back. I believe Howard and Brown are closer to the players we saw in ST than what they have been thus far…
Brown is the biggest surprise for me and I had no illusion he was going to produce at the clip he did in spring. But he seems to have abandoned everything he was doing in ST that was getting him positive results.
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Well I hope you are right. Obviously getting Ruiz back is one reason I think they will end up over .500 at least.
Agree about Brown. I am, at the moment, giving him the benefit of the doubt. Last night was encouraging (the 2 BB especially). I wonder if his spring training success might have had a (hopefully temporary) deleterious effect. He was hitting so well that he seemed, as spring training progressed, to get much more aggressive at the plate – and approach that IMO doesn’t work for him in the long run, That aside, of course his low BABIP kind of cuts both ways – on the one hand, it’s fair to expect some regression to the mean. On the other hand, at some point you start to wonder whether, despite the minor league history, and the fact that he has characteristics (in term of his swing and speed) of a player who SHOULD have a higher than average BABIP … maybe he will never be that guy.
I’m much less inclined to be optimistic about Howard. I thought his spring training performance was not as good as it looked – his peripherals were really not very good. He just doesn’t look good physically. I think that big guys in their 30s just have a really, really tough time recovering from that injury, in all sports. See, e.g., Elton Brand.
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I will be at the game tonight to report on Pettibone if anything happens of note. Honestly, I think I would learn a lot more about his pitching if I were watching on TV, so we’ll see.
I saw a little of Martin’s start on Saturday. I didn’t see him collapse, but what I did see was a young pitcher with top of the rotation stuff and an apparent ability to dominate if he can nail down his command a little. The LHV gun is typically 1-2 MPH slow, but it appeared that Martin was throwing in low to mid 90s pretty consistently, touching the upper 90s. His curve is ridiculous – a lot like the one thrown by Brett Myers when he was a power pitcher. But can he develop a solid command? Who knows? He certainly looks to have more upside than May, I can tell you that.
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Sadly, I have come to the conclusion that the pundits are right..our farm system is very weak. We have a few decent prospects but no game changers and very little depth. Guys just aren’t progressing like you would want.
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V1, when you started a new job did you not have an adjustment period? The better players are rebounding from poor starts.
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my point is, the only prospects that could be considered “elite” are in Low A or in XST. Quinn has great tools, but is very, very far away. LV has some “nice” prospects, but no one who is elite. Reading only has Biddle. Everyone else on Reading are non-prospects. CLW has a few good prospects, but they are very far away too. We just don’t have a great farm system.
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It’s not an easy game even for the so called elite. Ask Jackie Bradley, Moustakas, Hosmer, Machado or any number of young guys struggling right now.
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DMAR —Add one-time Yankee super prospect, now Mariner Jesus Montero to your list. Sophomore jinx for him it appears.
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Look out ….Art Charles is hitting over .400 last 10 games. Keep it up, may see a Clearwater promotion later this summer.
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