Way too Early Draft Preview

2013 Draft

At this point in the spring it is way too early to speculate about which player the Phillies will take with the #16 pick.  However we can begin to speculate at what players could be available and more importantly what type of player could be available when the Phillies make their selection.  I have taken the Top Draft Prospect lists from mlb.com, ESPN, Baseball America, Minor League Ball, and Baseball Prospectus/Perfect Game and taken the 5 players around the Phillies pick (so the #14,15,16,17,and 18 best draft prospects).  If there is a free report included I have added it.

MLB.com:

14. Kohl Stewart: RHP/OF – St. Pius X HS (Texas)

There are several things that make Stewart an intriguing, yet enigmatic, prospect. The first is his dual-sport status: Stewart is one of the better high school quarterbacks in the country and is committed to Texas A&M for both sports. Secondly, Stewart is a Type 1 diabetic and interested teams will surely want to be sure about his health. Even with those variables, Stewart is bound to get a lot of attention, especially after throwing very well at the Area Code Games over the summer.

He can run his fastball up to 95 mph with a slider and changeup to go along with it. He’s more thrower than pitcher right now and his arm action concerns some. That might be a question answered only if a team feels he’s willing to forgo his two-sport college experience.

Stewart played in both the Area Code Games and the Perfect Game All-American Classic over the summer. He was the starting pitcher for the West in the Perfect Game, giving up one run on two hits over his inning of work.

15. DJ Peterson: 1B – New Mexico (Junior)

Every Draft class has its fair share of college performers — guys who put up good numbers without much fanfare.

Peterson had a monstrous sophomore season at New Mexico, then led Team USA in home runs and RBIs over the summer. He’s an advanced hitter with plus power, one who’s not afraid to take a walk. He’s played both corners defensively, mostly playing first while with USA Baseball.

Good college hitters with pop tend to move up as the Draft approaches, and a repeat performance from his sophomore year should land him squarely in the first round.

Peterson hit .419/.490/.734 as a sophomore at New Mexico and while he hit just .241 over the summer with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team in Cuba for exhibitions and the Netherlands for Honkbal-Haarlem Baseball Week, he slugged .483 to top the club while hitting four homers and driving in 14 runs in 16 games. He walked as many times as he struck out (eight).

16. Ryan Eades: RHP -LSU (Junior)

Eades is everything you want from a pitcher: size, stuff and feel for pitching.

A Cape Cod League All-Star back in 2011, Eades pitched in LSU’s rotation last year and should anchor it in 2013. He’ll hit 94 mph with his fastball, and he has a good curve and changeup to go along with it to give him a good three-pitch mix that he knows how to use effectively.

There is some question about his arm action, but the real concern might be about his medical record. Eades had labrum surgery as a senior in high school and any team interested in him in June will have to be convinced of his durability.

The Cape Cod Pitcher of the Year in 2011 didn’t go back there in 2012, resting up to try and improve on his sophomore season that saw him go5-3 with a 3.83 ERA in 17 starts for LSU.

17. JP Crawford: SS – Lakewood HS (Cal)

This Southern California product and Oscar Mercado are the top high school middle infielders in the country in this class.

Well-known on the showcase circuit, Crawford has a plus arm and easy, flowing motions defensively. While he grades out as an average runner, he is a threat on the bases. Crawford has a loose, wristy stroke and can hit the ball to all fields. He has average raw power and could grow into more as he matures. How high he goes in the Draft may depend on how much teams feel his bat will come.

Crawford got the chance to show off his skills at a number of summer stops, playing in the Area Code Games as well as the Under Armour All-American Game and Perfect Game All-American Classic, stealing two bases and going 1-for-4 in that last event of the summer for him.

18. Marco Gonzales: LHP – Gonzaga (Junior)

A two-way player for Gonzaga, Gonzales’ future will most certainly be on the mound, especially after an outstanding turn as part of Team USA’s rotation over the summer.

Gonzales’ best pitch is his changeup, which is an easily plus pitch. He’ll throw his fastball up into the low 90s and has excellent command of it, while using a slider as his primary breaking ball.

After a sophomore season that saw Gonzales go 8-2 with a 1.55 ERA in 12 starts and also hit .325 in 151 at-bats, Gonzales posted a 2.82 ERA and 3-0 record while hitting .250 for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team, which played exhibitions in Cuba and participated in Honkbal-Haarlem Baseball Week in the Netherlands over the summer.

He’s a very good athlete who has hit well in college, but it’s his left arm that could have him drafted in the first round in June.

ESPN: (March 14)

14. Kohl Stewart:

Sitting 90-94, strong commitment to Texas A&M

15. Ryan Eades:

Above average velocity, with a potential outpitch curveball

16. Andrew Mitchell: RHP – TCU

Currently a closer but has the stuff to be a starter and has limited wear and tear on his arm.

17. Matt Krook: LHP – St. Ignatius Prep (Cal)

Tall lefty sitting in the low 90s with a sharp curveball, still has physical projection.

18. Ryan Boldt: OF – Red Wing (Minn)

Prep outfielder with no outstanding tools but a lot of plus tools

Baseball America: (April 4)

14. Jonathan Denney: C – Yukon HS (Okla)

Muscular catcher with a good RH bat.  Great power potential from a short swing with premium bat speed.  Move well behind the plate.

15. Domonic Smith: 1B/OF – Serra HS (Cal)

One of the best all-round bats with an easy loose swing.  Above average hitter with above average power, currently a first baseman but could play a corner with his average speed and above average runner.

16. Trey Ball: OF/LHP – New Castle (Ind)

Fastball that sits in the hi-80s but can touch 92, has a promising changeup and curveball.  Has 5-tool potential in the OF, plus power and plus speed with a great arm.

17. Ian Clarkin: RHP – Madison High (cal)

Fastball sits 90-92 with a viscous curveball and a solid changeup.

18. Ryne Stanek: RHP – Arkansas

Fastball sits 93-97 with one of the drafts best sliders to pair with a changeup that projects as average.  Has struggled this spring and has been overly reliant on slider and with his command.

Baseball Prospectus/Perfect Game: (Jan 30)

14. Trey Ball

15. Kohl Stewart

16. Justin Williams: OF – Terrabone (LA)

17. Ryan Eades

18. Michael Lorenzen: RHP/OF – Cal State Rullerton

Has struggled this spring but has great make up and good raw tools.  Calling card is great CF defense.

Minor League Ball: (Feb 22)

14. Joe Martarano: 3B – Idaho HS

The Good: Plus arm, plus hit, plus power potential.
The Bad: Football

15. Bobby Wahl: RHP – Mississippi (Junior)

The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics

16. Ian Clarkin:

The Good: low 90’s fastball and plus breaking ball
The Bad: Not as much projection as most HS arms.

17. Austin Meadows: OF – Georgia HS (Note – Meadows has skyrocketed up boards and is a Top 5 pick)

The Good: Elite tools across the board.
The Bad: The tools may not translate to baseball skills. Questionable hit tool.

18. Reese McQuire: C – Washington HS

The Good: Premium defense, good potential with the bat.

The Bad: Hit tool is inconsistent

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

53 thoughts on “Way too Early Draft Preview”

  1. Of all of the players I’ve read about, I am most interested in the High School bats. Catcher Jon Denney, OF/1B/LHP Domonic Smith and SS JP Crawford would be at the top of my wish list at this time. LHP Ian Clarkin and C Reese McGuire seem interesting too.
    Knowing how the Phillies usually draft, I don’t see Kohl Stewart as a realistic option. They’ll have to bid for him, to get him away from Football. I could see them taking a college hitter, like CF Phillip Ervin. They could get him for slot and they like guys who perform well in the Cape Cod League. I doubt the Phillies taking a HS Pitcher that high, due to uncertain bonus demands.

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    1. It’s funny, Scott Frazier, who wouldn’t sign for close to 1 million in 2010, may be available at pick #56. The slot for that pick should be about 900k if he is lucky enough to get picked that high, this upcoming draft.

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      1. Yes, really tall SS. Great bat, he is in pretty much every bigtime showcase game around the country

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    3. I dont think Stewart has much leverage as people think… hes already been injured on the football field, he would being sitting behind the heisman trophy winner for 3 years. Manziel isnt leaving early because hes not a pro prospect.

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  2. I have actually seen many of these players play each other. USA Baseball held a 18U v. College Prospects game over the summer. Ryne Stanek and Bobby Wahl are for sure the most big league ready of those listed. Wahl was predicted as going #1 this summer before Appel came back for his Sr. year. Not the biggest guy but, he is a flame thrower, at worst he is a really nice bullpen piece, the fact that he has drop to middle 1st rd. picks seems worrisome but he is a safe pick to get to the majors in the next year or two. I think he is up within August of 2014. Stanek is a lanky right hander with a nice fastball-curveball mix. The curve in 12-6 and he dominates hitters, another safe pick to be pitching is the majors in the next 2-3 years. Lorenzen is a strong CF, about 6’2-6’3 with above average speed, and a nice bat. One of the top college bats for USA this summer, he sprays the ball with authority all over the field. He is a baseball junkie and he seems to be the closest to the big leagues of the guys in that area of the draft. As always the Phillies love HS kids, seeing Clarkin and McGuire, they are typical HS first round picks. Extremely raw but I cannot see them going as high as #14. Lastly DJ Peterson intrigues me. One of the best college bats, and as it says he led the USA Collegiate National Team this summer in HR/RBI, it lists him as a 1B which he is best built for but, I can see him at 3B as well. Really big college bat that peppers the gaps. The only problem is that he reminds me of Brett Wallace in college, and as many know, that hasn’t worked out well. Great write-up! Can’t wait for the draft! It is right around the corner.

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    1. Didn’t include Marco Gonzales, he is your typical crafty lefty who will sit between 90-94 for his career. Not the biggest of pitchers but he has a big breaking ball. Another safe pick for the Phillies, but not as high of a ceiling as the other college pitchers.

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        1. I can see that, he has several pitches as a collegiate pitcher which is the reason he is a first rounder. I can also see Jaime Garcia as his ceiling but that is going out on a limb.

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  3. Of course this is an early look. Several guys will break into the better positions in the next several months. I am hoping for a breakout righty outfielder from the college ranks, but if not, then a fire-balling HS pitcher.

    The list will look different by the time of the June draft.

    Overall, I’m looking for many HS pitchers to join the search for future pitching. Aside from a power righty RFer, the team’s position players are growing within the system now. Pitchers wanted!

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  4. Ive been following Kohl Stewart this spring in person. Ive only had him as high as 93 mph this spring on my gun. But hes been throwing an 88 mph slider that he wasnt showing much last summer. With his current 4 pitch mix Im doubting he makes it to us.

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  7. Jon Denney reminds me of a Bryce Harper/ Wil Myers hybrid. He has Harpers swing and body type but questions surround his ability to stay at catcher. Could move to outfield eventually. I would be ecstatic if he falls to us. Dominic Smith is another guy I hope to get. Reminds me of Singleton.

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    1. I can slightly see Myers, not Harper. I’m guessing the hybrid is power high school bat at catcher?

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  8. Keep an eye out for the North Jersey lefty from St Joseph HS. He has a big time arm and has signed with North Carolina……FYI NC has signed 4 HS players from NJ.

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    1. I live a couple miles from UNC. They pump out NJ talent like its nobody’s business. Is it Rob Kaminsky? He is talented but he is a little small for my liking. Sorta like Tim Collins on KC.

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  10. I know nothing of any of these guys but from write-up I like Smith as hitter and Clarkin as pitcher. Both are HS guys with know quality skills.

    Certainly one of the college guys may carry less risk and be an easier sign. Eades seems to be listed by everyone but the injury risk seems too severe and Petersen is bothersome as a 1B already. If he can play 3B that certainly helps but he will be at nearly the same level as Franco (certainly not a ‘bad’ problem to have), as one becomes trade bait.

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  11. Evan. north Carolina has a kid from philly, whos father I know michael zolk have you seen him play??? WHAT do you think of him he is a sophomore I believe,

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    1. Zolk is your typical scrappy left handed hitting college middle infielder. He starts everyday at 2B, mind you, UNC is extremely good (#1 in the nation). Very scrappy and hardworking, grinds out at-bats. Will it translate to big league talent? Unknown, but as a sophomore at 5’9, he is one of those pesky little hitters like a Pedroia who just gets the job done. I believe he is hitting .322 w/ 18 RBI

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      1. seen zolk play a lot… He’s a small stocky little guy who’s a singles hitter, great fielder though… I don’t think he has much draft stock do you Evan?

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  12. How about Aaron Judge, Fresno RH power bat….6’6′ or 6’7″, 225 lbs and can throw and field as a corner OF.

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      1. Your guys assesment of him:
        This is probably way too simplistic, but this past weekend works as a decent example of what I expect out of Aaron Judge this year. Series opener on Friday: 0-5, 3 K. Series finale on Sunday: 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, SB. There are going to be days like Friday to be sure, but I expect a lot more outings like Sunday as the season heats up. He’s still rough around the edges in many ways — his power is more theoretical than real life and his size makes him a historical outlier from the get go — but he does so many things so darn well (speed, defense, arm, approach, and, yes, raw power) that you can’t help but appreciate him as a prospect. Judge’s star is ascending, and I’m happy to have two feet firmly on the bandwagon as it rumbles its way towards June. One big thing I’m looking forward to tracking this year: Judge’s performances against upper-echelon pitching. The one knock on his game that I’ve heard from multiple sources is whether or not his current swing setup will work against pitchers who have both a) premium stuff, and b) an idea about pitch sequencing. Early in the count I’ll take him over just about any college bat, but can he make the necessary adjustments within each at bat to continue being successful at the pro level? Again, I’m quite bullish on Judge’s future, though it’s worth noting he’s got the same ominous R/R profile as Peterson.

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  13. Braden Shipley, Andrew Thurman, and Chris Anderson are pitchers from lesser known colleges that have a lot of helium lately.

    Dominic Smith would be a huge get if he can play OF. Denney and McGuire both have great swings. Not sure either will be there though.

    In 2nd round would love SS Dozier from Stephen F Austin or country strong Hunter Renfroe. Frazier has not dominated like he should be.

    Check out Baseballdraftreport.com as well. Extremely informative and best part he’s a Phillies fan!

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  15. I believe that Denney will go early in the top 10 so he’s out of the question, but I’m hoping that Ryan stanek can fall to us. Hitting wise I’ll be hoping for either Dominic Smith or Joe Martarano, however I think it’s unlikely we take Martarano due to football.

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  16. If he’s still there, they’re going to take Shane’s buddy JP Crawfish from Lakewood HS. Marti and company love SoCal athletes.

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  17. If history is any indicator of this draft the Phillies will go with the best HS upside athlete. Unfortunately, high ceiling, high risk may not be the best choice for the Phils at this point.
    I think this is a year they need to ensure the 1st three picks all sign and at least one advances quickly.
    I would like to see them draft a top college player like Stanek or Peterson if they are avail. However, I get the feeling they would love to see Domonic Smith drop to them at 16. He is one of those HS High ceiling players they love to draft.

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    1. Lorenzen would be a guy that I think could move at the rate of Jackie Bradley (just a comparison, lets not start a why did we pick LGJ comment) but he moves well in CF, he has plus speed, I would say a 60-70 which makes him an excellent defender. His bat could project to LF and he could hit around .270-.310 with 10-20 HR 15-30 steals. He has a beautiful short stroke to the ball. Nice and compact, similar to Ryan Braun. Not saying he is Braun but maybe something like Cameron Maybin??? It sounds stupid but Philly would love him because he is a true baseball player. I have had the chance to talk to him several times, and he just eat, sleeps, and breathes the game of baseball. Not to mention, he is a pretty good pitcher, so at worst case scenario, they have a nice reliever.

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        1. Better bat, more gap-to-gap pop. He has struggled a bit this year but remember, Jackie Bradley had an injury filled year which made him fall so far in the draft.

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    2. I think that history will change. Don’t think they will or should really reach for a college pick, but if the value is there in a college pick at #16, they should and will grab him. The Phillies circumstances have changed. The MLB team is old and faltering and the minors are still not strong. That means they need a new impact player and they need him sooner rather than later. A college kid can be two years sooner. The Phillies took a lot of high risk/high ceiling HS toolsy athletes in recent years, partly because their low draft position meant the low risk college guys were all gone and partly because they felt confident with their MLB team that they could wait out the longer development time for a HS kid. They made some riskier picks, because they favored one HR player over 2 doubles and 4 singles, figuring it’s very hard to get an impact guy and they can buy the solid starters and fillers. This year, they can take their HS high risk picks at a point in the draft not very different from where we took them in the past few drafts. Of the 5 picks within the top 4 rounds, I’m expect 3 HS and 2 college, or maybe 2/3 in the other direction, depending upon what is left on the board.

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      1. “That means they need a new impact player and they need him sooner rather than later.”

        Best way to kill your farm system, that and college pitchers.

        High school all the way. Reach for ceiling, hit tool for position players the first thing you look for.

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      2. “That means they need a new impact player and they need him sooner rather than later.”

        Best way to kill your farm system, that and college pitchers.

        High school all the way. Reach for ceiling, hit tool for position players the first thing you look for. .

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  18. I been reading about the draft and the prospects, Smith is definitely one of the types the Phillies would love to sign, but don’t think they would pay want he wants. I was reading that appel, turn down over 3.7 million to go back to Stanford, I could never see me doing that, that’s a lot of money,to walk away from.s some of these kids really have a lot of guts, to say no to a ton of money, to finish college, maybe as a average middle class person, I just don’t get it,you could take the money and finish your last year in the off season and be set for life with money, love to be 21 or 22 with a 3 million dollar bankroll,to start life.

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  19. 2014 watch out for Trea Turner, Brett Austin, and Carlos Rodon all coming out of North Carolina State they’re are all studs.

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    1. +1 +1 +1. I like the talent UNC has but these are potential 2014 top ten picks on the same team! I would love to see them in professional red pinstripes but it is not worth another year of struggles. My fear is Rodon will drop off from projected #1 to the middle rounds much like Andrew Brackman. Avent doesn’t know how to properly handle his pitching staff, Holliday is in charge and they are getting by. There is a reason a team that talented in .500 in the conference. As a Wolfpack season ticket holder, I would love to see the Phils take a chance on a guy like Tzamtzis or Overman in the later rounds, they are potential big back end of the bullpen arms. Go Pack!

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      1. season ticket holder as well, lol. Overman doesn’t have the velocity. I think Rodon will bounce back next year after his shaky year so far, just needs to stop walking so many people, and Tzamtzis…..? nooooo

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      2. I disagree though I think Avent does a wonderful job year in and year out pitching is normally our strong suit.

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        1. I would credit Holliday, he has pumped out talent like Huston Street and J.P. Howell. Rodon was shutdown this fall to prevent fatigue, I just can’t see #1 anymore 3-15 for him. He is the real deal though and he will bounce back. Tzamtzis has been injured and he is regaining velocity. Michael Stutes is comparable to him, and honestly its guys like college guys like Stutes and Rosenberg that you can take a chance on late because they can move quick. From a professional baseball stand point both Tzam. and Overman have good stuff, it is tough to harness in the ACC. Avent makes questionable calls late in games with a young bullpen, when he uses veterans there are less heart attacks.

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          2. and overman sits 87-89 on his fast ball, don’t get me wrong I love him and he is doing a heck of a job this year but I don’t know if he has much draft potential.. maybe around the 15th round.. Tzam isn’t even a top 5 pitcher on the team my dude…

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  20. Evan what is your take on Brett Austin? do you think he could find the first round like he did out of high school? his power (HR wise) was probably overrated out of high school that is the only thing, he’s a great fielder and runs well (9 steals so far) and also is hitting for gap power (15 doubles leading the ACC).

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    1. His college numbers aren’t don’t scream top 15 pick but, he has a wood bat swing. Mike Zolk of UNC who I talked about above has a metal bat swing which makes him talented at the college level. Carolina is packed with those guys. NCSU has wood bat hitters. Austin tore up the Cape Cod League over the summer which is the most prestigious college wood bat summer league. That and USA Baseball is a good indicator to scouts what makeup a guy will have at the professional ranks. If he keeps it up he will be a top 15 lock. I would love to see what he does this summer if it is with USA or in CCL. He has slightly above average receiving skills and the fact that he can play RF helps. I would like to see him shorten his swing as it can be a bit loopy at times. Remind you he is a sophomore who has to handle the pitching staff completely now that Canela is gone so his offense has gone a bit to the back burner.

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  21. First of all, after Mark Appel I don’t like anyone coming out of college in the first round. A lot of dreck that everyone who selects from will regret later but justify it on the grounds that they seemed “safe”

    If you’re looking for “safe” then you need to find something else to do.

    Trey Ball

    The Phillies should be and probably are in love with him as a LHP. I would play him there and in CF at Lakewood next year, but he’ll likely be gone before the 8th pick since Boston doesn’t draft “safe”. The Twins should take him. He’ll be touching 97 with his fastball in three years.

    I usually avoid 19yr old “high school” players but Ball has incredible physical projection left.

    Drew Ward

    Finally a third baseman! Oh the usual losers will say he’s too big but that’s why they shouldn’t be involved in the process. He’s a stud athlete with great makeup. He can stick at 3B and his power is at the Ryan Howard level. Watch the video of him hitting the ball completely out of the ballpark to the opposite field. Supposed to be patient too. A .900 OPS profile.

    Justin Williams
    This kid will only be 17yrs old on draft day so he’s probably too young for the Phillies to draft, but he swings like an MLB hitter. Looks like he has upperdeck type power with potential to play 2B/3B. I’m confused as to why he has no Frazier/Meadows buzz. Then again Jason Heyward went 14th.

    Orlando Mercado

    Is this kid dropping? He looks like a skinny Michael Young. I would think that in 4 years he’ll be a 22yr old Michael Young.

    Wolever/Jordon should be fired if they don’t get four high ceiling high school kids with the 1st, 2nd and two 3rd round picks.

    Alec Rash having an excellent freshman year. Bet he’s a high 1st rounder coming out. Never a doubt. I loved that pick, hate Dave Montgomery.

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  22. BA just released the international bonus allotments. This year it is based on record with the Astros getting the biggest pool. Phillies are alloted approx 2.3m. Overall bonus pool came down as well. Looking forward to the draft and July 2nd.

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