532 thoughts on “General Phillies Chatter, Week of 25 July 2011

  1. Walk off home run by the reds by Stubbs to beat the Braves (6 back?) and the question needs to be asked…” do we really need to add a Beltran or someone that is an overpayment?”

    Do not want to jinx us, knock on wood, etc… but do not trade a top prospect for a rental!

      1. Seeing Gillick to the Hall today reminds me how important those smaller moves can be. I’d like to see an under the radar deal like Gillick made for Scotty Eyre.

        Maybe pick up Randy Choate from the Marlins for the pen. A veteran lefty could be nice for us, particularly if we meet the Braves or Red Sox in the postseason.

      1. Totally agree with Bob. A move will absolutely be made. There are never any guarantees, but improve this team as much as possible now, and make what happened last year less likely this year.

        Boston this year is better than either of the WS teams last year. And if Atlanta makes a significant move now (RH bat like Beltran), they will be better than SF last year, too.

        Increase your chances of beating those 2 teams, and you’ll also be good enough to not worry about SF. I think the Phillies will land Beltran.

        1. Perhaps the Phils land Beltran, but from what I have heard, the Braves are more desparate and will offer better prospects.

    1. The thing is the playoffs are a bit of a crap shoot on some level. We can go get Albert Pujols and still lose to the Giants pitchers having a great set of games. There are only a few players in the game that can take a playoff team to a World Series winner, there are none of them on the market right now (Cliff Lee the past two years was that player).

      I would say if there is a blockbuster for the right price (Ed Wade falls in love with KK as the solution to his problems) they should pull the trigger, if not a couple small pieces to shore up the bench and bullpen (something that will take some innings off of Bastardo, Stutes, and Madson).

      Really though the Phillies are essentially adding Roy Oswalt at the deadline for the second year in a row (this time for free), and that is a better move than anyone in the division can make.

  2. I say we go snag Colby Rasmus from the Cards. If he’s available, that’s the guy they should get.

  3. I think the club would be smarter to go out and get a player we can match with Vic and Brownie next year instead of giving up a lot and only getting Beltran for a couple of months. Hunter and the Uptons look like much smarter bets. It would suck to give up the baby aces, but we have our pitchers under control for a while and they’re still going to be expensive. So we should look to keep at least 1 of the outfield positions at a low salary.

  4. A big right-handed bat in the five hole would be real nice. But is that going to solve the problem of a nasty lefty striking out Utley and Howard back to back? Not really. Rollins Utley Victorino Howard Beltran (or whoever) Polanco Ibanez Ruiz. That’s a lineup with real nice balance. John Jr. and Gload and Brown and Martinez and Schneider and Orr or Valdez or Kratz maybe sneaks in before the post season rosters are cutoff Can’t see the need for them to carry even 11 pitchers for a five game series, though I am sure they will. That Baez DFA and the pending waive of Valdez (please) will give them some chances to elevate a couple guys to the 40 if they need to. So that’s helpful.

  5. If the Phillies do trade for Pence and dont include Dom Brown, does Brown start in rf with Pence starting in lf or do I still have to suffer with Ibanez? I hate that current player in lf and its hard watching his oaf looking self run, swing, slowly get to hits and weakly throw to the wrong base and fix his batting gloves after each pitch.

  6. We will need to add a big time OF this offseason anyway to replace Ibanez so if they can get that guy now and benefit from him this season (Upton, Kemp, Pence, etc) why not do it now for the right price. Preferably he would bat RH, be under 30, and be under control for 3 years.

    1. Under control for 3 years? That means he hasn’t entered arbitration yet or is super 2. If the guy is that good, why would that team trade him? This is ridiculous, when did we turn into Yankees fans, thinking we can acquire anybody?

  7. Minor moves, probably after aug 1, are preferable for me. We have a solid chunk of $ coming off the books that will help resign rollins, which us a big priority to me because if how tough a good SS is to find. I’d love to keep Madson too, which could be tricky. Adding a pence who prob makes 10 mil next year cuts into that. And finding a RH LF that can hit decently isn’t hard to find. if that guy doesn’t work out, a move can always be made next July to shore that up. For that reason and the Madson situation, trading for a Mike Adams or B League makes sense to me.

    Trading for a fulltime OFer doesn’t. Benching Brown (realistically speaking) doesn’t sound great, and even ibanez has as good a shot as most to get hot in October. He’s on a solid streak now for reference

  8. After this week of wins and good news, the need for a trade has just about disappeared. Unless someone falls into Ruben’s lap, forget it. A late August move might be possible. The Phils could get Blanton back and still make the post season.(funny quip I think)

  9. The marginal increment in the probability of winning the WS from adding a player like Pence is small enough (although real and I’d love to have him) that the Phillies should take no action that has a significant impact on their chances of winning in future years. I think Melky Cabrera, if he comes cheaply enough would be adequate – right handed bat with a bit of power and better defense than Ibanez. He’d be less of ess a marginal improvement than with Pence or Beltran, but the long range impact is much less severe (unless, of course, the Mets decide to settle for a lot less for Beltran. (Wade cannot afford to settle for much less for Pence.)

    1. I am all for these statistical arguments as well. But I wonder how solid the math really is. You are right, adding pence might give us. 25% better chance of winning 1 world series (the correct number can actually be predicated). The fault is assuming that a guy like singleton is worth more than that. 25% for 1 world series win over the course of his career. I wouldn’t begin to act like I have a clue towards answering this, I would only caution those who are against trades bc of how “little” statistical value a player adds. Maybe someone with more of a math background can add some insight.

      1. Rather than writing a dissertation on the subject, I can try to illustrate the point. An all-star player is one with a WAR of 5 or above. Spread over a 16-20 or so game post-season, that translates into less than a 50-50 chance of making a difference in one game. Pence has an offensive WAR of 3.3 (pretty darn good) but he has a slight negative WAR defensively. This does project to about a WAR of 5 for the season.
        The probability that this slight improvement makes the critical difference in the post season is quite small.

        Or try this one on for size. Assume that a team is 70% certain to win the divisional series, 60% to win the league championship series if it gets there and 50% to win the world series if it gets there. The overall probability that it wins the WS? 21%. Lets assume that it adds a player who can increase the figures to 75%, 65% and 55% (which is more than any one player could do, although I could make a good arguments pitchers can have a greater impact, that is not what we are dealing with here.) The probability of winning the WS? It’s now not quite 27%. Assume an incredibly huge increment from an addition, with the figures 80%, 70%, 60%. The chances of winning the WS? 33.6%.

        But do remember that statistical inference deals with probability of occurrences over a large number of events – it does not project single events. After all, what was the probability that Joe Blanton would hit a HR in the World Series?

  10. We need a blow outs this week -even if one or two are losses, so Charlie can get Lidge into games with no pressure.

    1. I’m really looking forward to seeing what Lidge looks like in a game situation so we can figure out what we have or don’t have.

  11. Here’s my attempt to gather my thoughts on this issue:
    1) The Phillies are in very good shape as they are. They have a six game lead in their division. This might be the biggest lead in baseball. They have the best record in baseball.
    2) A major move was made last year when we were down by two games in the division after a seven game homestand we swept. At the start of this homestand, we trailed the braves by about seven games. I think that if Oswalt had not come in, we would not have won the division. Blanton and Kendrick and Happ were not going to get it done. The situation now is much different.
    3) Ruben Amaro Jr. as well as Scott Proefrock have said that no major moves will be made at the trade deadline this year.
    4) Nevertheless, media specualtion about a major trade has been rampant. The Phils have connected to Beltran, Pence, Ludwick, Willingham, Bell, Cabrera, Nunez, Adams.
    5) I do not want someone to be brought in to supplant Brown. Brown is raw. He has made mental mistakes. However, I think patience with him will yield big rewards long-term. And I’m talking late this year. He has been hitting over .300 in the month of July. I still do not think he is driving the ball as consistently as he is capable. I think that the pitches he is now making outs on will be hits soon. It’s just a matter of getting down timing through reps. So big mistake to take away from Brown’s development.
    6) I do not want to part with any of our fine prospects unless we absolutely have to. The possibilty of trading Brown for Pence or Beltran has been proposed. I think this idea is awful. I don’t see Pence or Beltran as great players. Beltran could come over here and get hurt again. He runs like an old man. He plays for the a losing organization. People who talk about his postseason brilliance forget that he struck out looking to end the 2006 NLCS. I think that parting with a player like Brown, or Cosart, is something that desperate organizations do. For instance, the Reds. The Reds are trailing by three or so games in their division. They’ve had to send down two starting pitchers they were counting on at the start of the season. If the Reds don’t win their division, the wild card probably won’t be there because of Atlanta. They need to make a move. Not us.
    All I would do is consider minor changes like the ones mentioned above. Choate would be a nice pickup. Reed Johnson also might be nice to have for some tough lefty relievers.

    1. Dan… Wow…

      1) The best record doesn’t really mean anything if you’re goal is to win a championship. The Phillies had the best record last year, and they didn’t win the WS, and I don’t think they had the best record in 2008 the year they won it all. Oh and I don’t think owning 116 wins and the best record in baseball helped the Mariners that year either.

      2) I think the point of your #2 post was the point out that we don’t need to make a move because we’re ahead now, where as in years past we were behind. But we don’t want what happened to the Braves last year, to happen to us.

      3) True, but R00b has also said over the years that no move was going to be made, then he produced Halladay, Lee, Lee Part II the Remix, and Oswalt. I hope he makes a big splash, winning clubs are aggressive but only at the right price. I don’t think Cosart, or even Colvin or May for Beltran is fair considering its a rental. What I am trying to say is, he probably isn’t planning on being overly aggressive but if Coletti offered up Kemp for Singleton, R00b is probably going to take it.

      4 – 5) I agree with you.

      6) I think it was the point that needs the most criticism, particularly the parts about Beltran. He struck out looking in the 2006 NLCS. So what? What about all the other plays that he made? Are you going to argue that Howard sucks as a Post season hitter? Because Howard struck out to end the 2010 season. Or that Shane Victorino sure sucks, he grounded out in 2009 to end the season…

    2. Generally, history shows that the best regular season record does not always translate into a championship. That is why you make a trade to better your team. Let’s not look at the overall record, but record and number of close games against potential playoff teams. Rollins, Utley, and Howard tend to go cold against good pitching teams. It seems that the complimentary guys come through in the playoffs with solid pitching.
      I would pass on Beltran, but go after Matt Kemp or Hunter Pence, in addition to moving someone in the crowded outfield for additional relief pitching. Otherwise, I would go after Aramis Ramirez to create a platoon situation at 3B. Polanco is playing hurt and Ramirez is a better 5 hole hitter than anyone else you can bring in. This would also allow you to continue development of Mayberry and Brown for next year.

      Another observation is how successful the Phillies have been in signing high end draft picks this year. The opportunity is there for the team to trade off the lower level prospects without losing much long term. I think using the high value of Worley packaged with some better lower level pitching prospects gets any deal done and the team back in the series. Let RAJ figure out the combo that will work. Go Phillies!

      1. I would also like to add the supremely low probability of all baby aces making it and becoming certified # 1 or # 2 in the MLB. With all of the knowledge in hand over year of development, the Phillies can take the calculated risk of letting one of them go. A high valued Worley with one of the baby aces and a mid level prospect in exchange for Kemp or Pence would make this team incredibly hard to stop come playoff time.

        1. John H:

          You clearly don’t spend enough times on the boards here. I thought Cosart/Colvin/May/Buchanan/JRod were the next coming of Cy Young. Plus when the five of them walk to the mound together and form a circle they can morph into powerful fighters that can summon giant robots to throw baseballs called “zords” and during the playoffs even the zords come together to form a “Megazord”

  12. I’m really starting to lean to preferring a BJ Upton move. I think (hope?) he could turn it on here. On baseball tonight they said the Rays were looking to move him and were not asking for much at all.

    1. Apparently they’re asking for the moon in return at this point. Dont really see it happening if that’s the case.

  13. The most sensible move to me would be to get Melky Cabrera for a B-grade prospect or two (which is seemingly all it would take) and hang onto Worley, Brown and all the top prospects. Maybe Pettibone and a reliever would get Cabrera. They could then also add a bullpen piece like Choate for fairly cheap.
    Cabrera switch hits, is displaying as much power as Pence this season (.455 SLG vs. .474 for Pence) and is FAR cheaper. Pence will cost 10-12 MM each of the next two years; Cabrera might cost 3 or 4 and wouldn’t take near the prospect haul. His bat might not be a game-changer, but it’s solid, he plays fine defense and it wouldn’t need to hurt the future at all – would only help.
    Trading Brown for anybody but a stud would be a mistake, and Pence (especially at 10MM a year) is not a stud.

  14. I’m curious as to what people think would be a reasonable package for Pence. Keep in mind that we have no internal options to fill LF in ’12 anyway. I agree that Cabrera is an attractive and perhaps superior option because the price is so much lower, but I do think Pence in the 5 spot is their best shot at winning the WS this year. I expect scorn, but I would part with a package of either Cosart or Singleton, plus Worley and a middling relief prospect. This is contingent on having confidence that Oswalt will be good to go fairly soon. If doubts about Oswalt remain, I am not including Worley in any deal and would have to consider Cosart AND Singleton. Maybe I am an idiot, but I want one more parade from this group.

    1. I agree that Pence should be the guy and we should be holding on to Worley. Trading him could leave KK as the 4th starter and I don’t even think there is a viable 5th within the organization if Oswalt and Blanton aren’t healthy. I wouldn’t trade Brown either so it would to be a good package of their young prospects. Cosart and Singleton seems a little steep so maybe we could do Cosart or Singleton / Schwim or Defrantus / and maybe James could sweeten the deal since he has been on fire lately.

    2. I wouldn’t do that, but the bigger problem with your proposal is that it wouldn’t get it done. The Astros are asking for an absurd package for Pence. They won’t get it, but they seem happy to keep him unless they can rob someone. It won’t be the Phillies (probably no one), and given the price that is a (very) good thing.

      Beltran is the only available difference maker who won’t cost a kings ransom.

      1. Jim Crane, ‘Stros new owner, says he wants that payroll at $60/65M next year—so Ed Wade needs to start chopping—–Carlos Lee, Wandy Rod, our buddy Brett M, Hunter P and Michael Bourne make up salaries more then $65M—–so Pence may be obtainable later this week for less then is expected.

        1. This is a true statement, however it is also very likely that Wade will be fired at the end of the year, so he may not care all that much.

          1. Ed Wade is auditioning for a future job, the last thing he wants on his resume is another bad trade, he needs a sure fire winner for Pence or Wandy to hope to get another job.

  15. I’d prefer trading from where we have depth — pitching, and try to hang on to Singleton as we are shorter on top hitting prospects. Try and center the trade around guys like May, Colvin, or Worley.

    1. May is the one to keep of all the baby aces. Most healthy, most dominant. Most keeper.

      1. Agree whole-heartedly. I think in the next year May and Biddle could be the top two pitchers on the farm. There was an Astros scout at Biddle’s last start, watching only for Biddle. Sure hope he isn’t part of this.

      2. not at all wht happend last year hes having a descnt year y would u not keep cosart honslty thats the domest thing iv ever heard 2015 starin row 1. cliff lee 2.cole hamles 3. vance worley 4. jarred cosart 5. jesse biddle

        1. What about Doc Halladay? The fact that he is part cyborg makes me think he can pitch effectively till 2025 at least. Like all electronics you just have to worry about over heating but that is manageable.

          1. thats is true but i was at every single game that any of the babby aces threw last year at lakewood cosart is the best then colvin then jon pettibone and may may is not good he will be ruf uped in reading next year when u are going to see coasrt make a late stint with leigh vally next year ”may had a better spring and work things out” that was sad by a verry well drafted prospect

  16. I Have not seen many posts regarding concerns at 3b. Any chance the Phil’s look to get the right handed bat at3rd? I am not sure he is available, but Aramis Ramirez would fill the five hole nicely. If Polanco can’t perform in the playoffs the Phil’s would be stuck with less than desirable playoff replacements. As it is, Polanco has been good for 1month and bad for at least two. He is in his thirties with a bulging disc. I am surprised that there is a general give that he will be fine and hit like he did in April.

  17. As far as next year the idea of Rollins at third has to be considered. That allows Rollins longer life for his new contract. MM has been clutch but still very inconsistent .

    1. You don’t move somebody who is as good as Rollins at short away from the position while he is still good. Moving Rollins to third next year is an absolutely horrible idea.

  18. This time of the year is so compelling. I have always been infatuated by the “next guy” and love PP for keeping us informed on our prospects. However, we are also faced with the possibility of another world series. My kids are 8 and 10 and all they know is that the Phils are an elite team in MLB. We know differently and understand the value of another championship or 2. I see the same as everyone else: 1. we need a RH bat 2. we have no leftfielder for next year 3. we may need help in the bullpen 4. we could win as is.
    So, what to do? I would not trade Brown unless you are getting Matt Kemp in return, not for Pence, Beltran, etc. I would part with Cosart in the right deal, not Beltran due to the two month rental. I am thinking a guy like Reed Johnson, Willingham or Melky might be a good fit. I saw where Johnson has a 1000 ops vs RHP. That is what we need a scrappy tough out to platoon with Brown. It would not take too much to get him, thus we could add a bullpen piece. Watching the Braves last night, they are really lefthanded too and we could benefit from another LRP.

    The best part is that I can sit here with 100% trust that RAJ will do everything in his power to gauge present vs. future. I did not feel that way under Wade, Thomas, etc…

  19. What about adding Conor Jackson from the As. He plays 1st, 3rd and OF and bats Right Handed. He also should cost less than most of the other names people have been talking about.

  20. No mention of Aramis Ramirez. I know he said he didn’t want to be traded but really? Can we count on Polanco in the playoffs? You plug Ramirez in at 3rd use Polanco to spell Utley, spell Ibanez, get rid of Valdez. You upgrade multiple positions and you have the best righthanded bat out there.

    1. The problem with this is that Aramis makes $14.6 million next year. They’d then be tied up with $128 million for just 10 players without a LF, SS, SP and closer. And you’d have a $6.5 million player (Polanco) on the bench on a team that needs every dollar they can get to fill their holes.

  21. This is why they need someone. Yes, the can win the division without adding anyone but the playoffs are a different story.

    Down 1 run in the eigth. The Braves bring in one of their lefties, Rollins leads off with a single, 2 hole hitter bunts him over to second. Utley lines out to first. Howard up with two outs they either feed him sliders out of the zone and hope he chaces or intentially walks him…batting behind him with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position……Fransisco? Ibanez? Brown? Mayberry? This will not cut it in the playoffs against good pitching staffs. It would be nice to have a RH bat.

    It would be a shame to have a team this great and this close and come short because you didn’t want to give up a prospect for a proven bat (Pence, Beltran, Upton, etc…)

    1. Uhhh…I think Victorino would be batting behind Howard in that situation. He’s hitting .375 against lefties.

    2. Good description of the scenario, Lee. But what if we have Victorino hitting behind Howard? He is a much better right-handed hitter than Beltran this season. In fact, as a right handed batter this season, Victorino is hitting .375/.487/1.206. You are going to have to give away a lot of the farm to get a right-handed bat better than that.

    3. Ross got on. Pinch run for by Valdez. Jimmy TRIES to bunt him over and fails. Fielder choice. Valdez out at second. Utley hammers one deep to the warning track in right for an out. Jimmy should have been swining away with the lefties coming up. I don’t know why he bunted.

  22. Probably every name said is out. Ruben likes surprises. I am betting on Bourne with Vic in right and three way platoon in left with Jr for defense and Brown helping out in left and right.

    1. Nowheels…brilliant suggestion. I think you might be on to something here particularly when you look at the recent draft. RAJ is ahead of others in thinking strategy and I think he has postulated that pitching, defense, small ball running, and stealing is the baseball of the 2015-2030 era. As long as he is the GM this team will be about pitching and defense – the offense be damned.

  23. if salary were equal why not trade brown for pence. pence is already proven player, brown has proven nothing. salary is the only issue with me. i would trade brown and a young pitching prospect plus a reliever for pence, and hope to sign pence to a 5 year friendly deal. my deal is something like brown, swimmer, or de fraus, and a ramirez or colvin.

      1. Very telling article—–Brown’s reputation is certainly perseived higher nationally then locally.

      2. In reading the comments below the article, I’m impressed how much the Astros fans know about the Phillies prospects.

        1. With Ed Wade as their GM they almost have to be. Who knows which Phillies prospect will be the next Astro?

  24. I would go for Upton. A package of Singleton, Colvin or Cosart, Galvis (the Phils are resigning Rollins and the Rays have a dire need for a SS) Rizzotti (no value in NL). If you want to see what Upton can be in Philadelphia, look at his situational stats on grass. He is an amazing player when you get him off the Turf that he plays for more than 50% of his games. I want an outfield of Brown, Victorino, Upton. Power, speed, arms.

    1. BJ Upton is extremely average at baseball. Take out Singleton and Colvin/Cosart and then that deal makes sense.

  25. MLBTR:

    β€’The Phillies are saying top pitching prospect Jarred Cosart is unavailable in a deal, especially for a rental like Beltran, reports Passan.

  26. looking at upton, last three years he is declining as a hitter. Cant understand how everyone wants to give up so much for a guy who the league adjusted to and he hasnt made the necessary adjustements to be a top hitter.

      1. Lets see…….Upton will bat .240, strikeout 165 times, OBP of .325, OPS of .700 and oh yeah, lets not forget about his great attitude. Joe Madden can attest to that. He does give you great speed and defense.

  27. I agree with getting another experienced reliever to spell Stutes and Bastardo. Choate would be good as would another “less” visible reliever. A righty bat is necessary but Willingham would be the most I would be willing to pay for – he is used to being a part-time player and knows the NL. I think the Mets are behind telling everyone the Bosox and Phils want Beltran…that way they can drive up the price.

  28. These are Upton’s numbers away from the Trop…

    Away (this year) 48 179 30 51 7 0 9 38 23 49 11 3 .285 .366 .475 .841
    Grass (this year) 43 159 27 45 7 0 8 35 23 43 9 3 .283 .372 .478 .850

    Pretty clear that he struggles in his home ball park, does not appear to be a player in decline, appears to be a player on the wrong team. He is much cheaper than Pence and under team control for longer.

    1. Let’s take a quick look at Hunter Pence’s road numbers this year:

      Away (this year) 43 177 21 50 7 0 7 27 9 41 2 0 .282 .319 .441 .760

      Keep in mind that Pence plays in a pretty good hitters park now, whereas Upton does not. Upton gets on base more and has more speed. The rest is pretty much the same.

  29. so your whole argument is if he leaves trop he is a better player, did you take into account going to a new league. those numbers might mean nothing in the national league. just dont see it but i am usually wrong.

  30. In general the trend is that number improve going from the AL to the NL, especially going from AL East to NL East.

  31. Exactly, most hitters do better going to the NL. Also, if you look at Pence away from Minute Maid Park, he drops significantly. MMP is more hitter friendly than CPB, especially for 2b’s & hr’s, so Pence could see a decline. The Trop ranks 29th, which is why Upton hits so much better on the road. Upton seems to be the better choice and could possibly had a little cheap (buy low).

  32. I don’t think that the Phils need a major move. I’d especially say no to Pence, but that is mostly out of consideration for next year’s payroll. Per COT’s, the Phils already have $112 million in payroll commitments for 2012. And that is assuming a buyout of Oswalt. If Oswalt’s option is exercised, that brings you to 126. Add roughly $15 million for Hamels, you’re at $141 for 10 players under contract. That’s without Madson or Jimmy.

    You can’t have an Allstar (or Allstar level salary) at every position. Beltran makes the most sense for this season, but not if the Mets are asking an exhorbitant price.

    I think that a Willingham type would be fine. I’m not a big fan or Melky or Francour, but I would be ok with one of those guys if the cost is very low.

  33. I gotta say it… why does everyone automatically assume that the payroll number for next year is certain to be nearly what it currently is? Looking at the history of phillies spending, it’s pretty obvious the data doesn’t support that opinion. Further, yes… I’m aware of the luxuary tax, but signing a 10mm player above the tax level only really costs 2.5m, hardly worth mentioning when your payroll is 170 million.

    I’m not saying the phillies will increase their spending to infinity, or that they’re the yankees, but the bottom line is, if they come up with a run to (and hopefully winning) the WS this year, I fully expect their payroll to increase between 7-10%, which for those who don’t want to do the math, is 11.9 million to 17 million. Bringing the total payroll to 182ish to 189ish.

    So can we please stop with the “phillies don’t have the payroll” crap, like I get it, they have some people coming off the books, and some who are getting raises or being resigned, but ultimately, as far as im concerned, most of these decisions are going to be 90% baseball 10% money based IMO, Jimmy will be resigned becuase he’s the best option at short, Madson, same thing, Cole will either go his final year through arbitration or will be signed long term (which btw will happen either way IMO) spending another 12 million for a LF replacement is NOT out of the realm of possibilities.

    1. Even though it is very high, the Phils still work within a budget. As they showed with Cliff Lee/Jason Werth this offseason, they do have finite resources, and they allocate those finite resources as they best see fit.

      My point on Pence isn’t necessarily that the Phils “don’t have the payroll.” My point is, looking at next year, how do they allocate that payroll. Do they spend a lot of money on an above-average, but not overwhelming bat like Pence? Or do they man left field with a less touted bat, somebody like a WIllingham, in order to keep Oswalt. Or Madson. Or Rollins. Or add bullpen depth.

      The Phillies will be spending close to $100 million on just Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Howard and Utley. Does it make sense to allocate very significant dollars to a player that is above-average but far from being a superstar? I don’t think so.

    2. But Philadelphia is a ‘small-market’—Bill Giles makes that claim. Cannot afford to overspend.

      1. Ok. I’m assuming this isn’t sarcasm. If so…disregard.

        Can we please stop this “Phillies don’t spend” meme. They have the second or third highest payroll in ALL OF BASEBALL. They are trying to avoid the salary cap. I totally understand it and am not going to complain.

        1. Yes NEPPY pal…15 years ago….but you miss my point—Giles still has his say and Monty still listens. And a budget, even for the 3rd or 4th highest salary MLB expenditers, still exists. And until John Middleton becomes majority owner and makes the calls, it will remain that way ad nauseum.

          1. Yeah, it sure sucks having to work within a budget of only $175 million (Their current luxury tax number). How ever will they compete with such restrictions?

            You got to be kidding me.

  34. Looks like the Phillies are ramping up their efforts to get BJ Upton. If I had to guess what it would cost, it’ll be Singleton and Colvin.

      1. You’re kidding right? Upton is turning 27 in august and won’t be a FA until 2013. The Rays are going to give upton for only 1 top prospect (and not even the Phillies #1 prospect and not even in the top 50) and a throw-in? Just because Upton needs a change of scenery doesn’t mean the Rays are going to give him away. Colvin is good but he’s not that good.

        1. I think it would take a package deal of sorts, because I doubt the Phils would move A Cosart of Singleton for Upton, even straight-up. 2011 is the 3rd consectutive year Upton’s been a .241 or less, including .229 this year. Maybe a Colvin, James type deal

        2. Justin Upton, sure, i’ll do it for both Singleton, Colvin and I’ll even add Cosart…

          BJ Upton is 3 years older and not even close to an AS caliber player (even at a premium position, say 2b or CF). And wait, get this, you want to give up 2 of our top 5 for this average regular player not at a premium position (LF for the phillies) with declining production?

          1. And you think Colvin and a throw-in is going to get it done? This isn’t fantasy baseball where you can fleece people at will. Upton may be struggling but the tools are there. Colvin in is high-A and he’s not even dominating there.

            1. Ok, so why exactly does BJ have such a high value again, he’s 27… at some point, tools matter less than performance. If we were talking about a AA 20 yr old i’d be with you, but .224 at anything other then catcher or SS is really pushing it, especially for someone who’s gonna play LF. Maybe Colvin and a throw in doesn’t do it, but if morons like you were willing to give away Singleton and Colvin for that f***ing chump I’m pretty sure the phillies wouldn’t be where they are. Oh and btw, I think i’m pretty well aware this isn’t fantasy baseball. My point is your deal, while glorious in your eyes, looks like shit to me. Make sense now?

          2. We can get Upton for Rizzotti, Ruf and Murphy—all we need to do is change the DOBS on their birth certificates.

          3. First of all, did I say that it was a glorious deal? I’m just guessing what it will cost. I didn’t say whether I liked it or not.

            Second of all, you said it will cost Colvin + fill-in and now you’re saying it may not be enough?

            And third of all, did I resort to name-calling? You need to relax dude…

  35. Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the Astros have confirmed that Pence will not be traded this season. Appears the Phils have turned their attention to Upton who should come much cheaper given the recent promotion of Jennings. Upton has run out of favor in Tampa. I think he could be had for some lessor prospects.

    1. I like hearing that for one reason, and it’s not acquiring BJ Upton. Could be a smokescreen, a waiting game while the Beltran price comes down to a more reasonable set of prospects. Would love to have Beltran as a rental if we don’t have to give up Brown, Singleton, Valle, Biddle, May, Cosart. I’m fine with a nice package from what’s left. Beltran gives the Phils basically 2009/2010 Jayson Werth at the plate for a playoff upgrade. Price could come down to those levels, so I’m hoping Phils are blowing smoke with Upton.

    2. Ken Rosenthal is saying that the White Sox may end up becoming sellers. I think Thornton and Quinten would fit nicely in Phillies pinstripes.

  36. Upton can’t be had for lesser prospects- with 7 or 8 teams interested, that’s just silly.

    What I’m wondering is how much of Upton’s value is lost with a move to LF.

    1. “Lesser” as in other than Cosart, Singleton. Don’t get too excited by the name. Also understand what’s going on in the Ray’s organization. I proposed Colvin, James earlier

  37. The Colvin, Galvis and Rizzotti offer makes sense but it would probably require more than that…maybe another arm, like Buchanan. That’s a helluva lot, with Galvis’s improvement, but Upton is very attractive to a lot of teams. He could be a 30-30 guy in CBP, (not far off now) who plays great defense and doesn’t make a lot of money.

        1. Just my contention Supra. We don’t have a whole lot of talent up the middle and I dont see the Phils’ brass adding Galvis as a complimentary piece. I could certainly be wrong

  38. Ethan Stewart brillant this today for the GCL Phils. 7 shutout innings, 9K, 2H, 2BB

  39. The White Sox are scouting the Phillies system…. I wonder if a Carlos Quentin deal is in the works?

    I’d take him over Beltran/Pence/Upton… .933 OPS against lefties this year and is a legit 35HR guy.

    1. Go with caution when dealing with GM Williams—he has fleeced us a few times in trades-Freddie Garcia, Gia Gonzalez, Gavin Floyd to name a few.

      1. and williams then flipped Gio for Nick Swisher and then flipped Swisher for Wilson Betemit.

        Williams track record of late isn’t all that great.

    2. I’ve been trying to figure out whether the White Sox would pack it in this early. Either way I definitely would take Quentin over Pence or Beltran. Betran doesn’t even hit lefties and Houston should want your first born for Pence. I’d give up anyone in the minors for Quentin except Cosart or Valle.
      On the White Sox version of Beerleaguer, the fans would be happy with Atlanta’s Brandon Beechy for Quentin. If that is the case, I’d center a package around Worley and May for him.

      1. I am just a bit leery about trading for an AL batter given his lack of familiarity with NL pitching. But I like the addition of Quentin long term. Whatever way you look at it, Worley should be the centerpiece of any deal. He will not be better than a # 4 starter and the team does not need 5 starters after August if Oswalt can be effective upon returning to the rotation.

        1. But the problem is that we won’t know how effective (and/or healthy) Oswalt will be until after the trade deadline. We also don’t know if Oswalt intends to retire after this year. If he does, we would need Worley as a 4th starter..

          From my perspective, we should aim for a righty OF with some power for platooning and defensive substitution. I like Cabrera for this role, but wouldn’t cry over Upton or Willingham. (I’d love Pence, but not at the price we’d likely have to pay.).

        1. A #4/5 starter and the organizations’ 5th best prospect (who is repeating high A) is too much for an All-star OF, under team control. Amusing.
          That’s a starting point at best.

          1. May has pitched better than any prospect in the system this year, before his hiccup in Clearwater many on this site considered him the best prospect behind Dom. He’s lowered his walks and continues to mow down batters, his trade value is nothing to scoff at

            1. He’s also repeating a level…you really have to take that into consideration with his numbers. He should be dominating Clearwater…its his second year in that league.

            1. He can hit quite a bit better than Ibanez…so there’s that.

              He’d be a significant upgrade in our lineup if he replaced Raul in LF.

              .878 OPS vs. .701 OPS for Raul. Even if you account for him playing in a launching pad, he’s still a good bit better (138 OPS+ vs. 90 OPS+). Raul could become a bench bat/part time starter at best. It’d be a good move to make and we’d have a LF next year too which is a huge consideration.

          2. and Kendrick is presumably our 5th starter in that scenario. And who’s our 5th starter if Oswalt’s back acts up again?

            1. The Phillies are 10 games up on the wild-card. Replacing Worley with a replacement level pitcher isn’t going to keep them out of the playoffs no matter if Oswalt or Blanton ever come back. The argument for holding onto Worley should only center around next year. His value is as a cheap replacement level player when Oswalt leaves. Worrying about next years’ 4th starter at the expense of having a lineup than can compete against top pitching THIS year is silly and shortsighted. The Phillies aren’t beating the Giants with the current lineup.

            2. What’s ‘silly and shortsighted’ is to trade a key component of the 2011 roster to fill an unrelated gap. 10-games up in the wildcard is a reason to move Worley when you have so many attractive options to move from within our system. You’re right, that is silly and shortsighted

    3. There’s a tendency to overpay in transactions done at this time of year. For this reason, I would not address the Phils’ LF issue for 2012 and 2013 right now. I’d deal with that in the off-season when free agency becomes an additional source of talent.

      Right now, I’d focus on what to do to make the team better for the remainder of 2011.

      To me, that’s a solid reliever and a veteran bat like Thome or Giambi. I’d pass on Quentin and Pence.

  40. Quentin is under control throughout 2012, but then a RFA? I’d be willing to give 2 of our top 7, and two of our “next 7” for a him the next year and half. That would looks something like Singleton, Colvin, James, DeFratus.

  41. I heard today that the Phillies have interest in Jason Giambi. He’d be a good bench player and I don’t think it would take too much to get him. He could be similar to Matt Stairs in 2008.

    1. I like Giambi off the bench. That would be an incredible pick up in my book. He never won a WS with the Yankees and would bring a hungry attitude to the bench.

  42. I’d love to see a deal with Quentin and Thornton come to Philly in a deal. Kill two birds with one stone.

  43. Twins are fadding, but likely won’t part with Cuddyer. He’s the perfect option. Great RH bat and can play 3B if Polanco goes down. If the Phils are going to overpay, he’d be the guy I’d do it for.

    1. Yeah, really wish the Twins would come to their senses and realize they ain’t in it and ship us Cuddy.

        1. As much as I love Cuddyer’s game and would love to see him as a Phillie on 8/1, he’s got nothing on Valdez when it comes to pitching, lol. WV has much better offspeed stuff and didn’t even need to warm up in the pen!

  44. I’ve decided I’m ok with an all-in move. I’m not sure I’ve ever loved a baseball team more than this year’s group and seeing this group win a title has consumed me as a fan. I’m not saying spill a ton of blood, but I’m saying I’m ok with anything if it’s a blockbuster move aimed at helping maximize this season.

    There’s nobody in the minor league system that I wouldn’t part with in the right situation. Moving Brown is not an option.

    1. I feel the same I just think brown and worley are too important to the big league club this year.

    2. I agree completely on not moving Brown. Moving Brown for Pence is an overpay on our part. Brown is the future. Hell, Pence wasn’t even in the majors in his Age 23 season.

      Keep Brown above all else. I’d like to keep Worley too but if we can sell high on him, they should go for it.

  45. Trading Brown for Pence keeps Raul in the lineup and thats a bad thing. I like having a right hand bat in the 5 hole but I like not seeing Raul even better. I think this posters are possibly undervaluing Brown right now and over valuing what it might take to get Hunter Pence from Houston.

  46. From what I heard on 97.5 The Fanatic they were saying Pence is not in play. Right now…this year Raul Ibanez is going to be a better option then Dom Brown. I have tickets for the Phillies (in RF) and Brown still needs a lot of work on his routes to the ball and even with his throws. Brown is very raw. Ibanez is a valuable bat for a playoff run this year. That being said I still would like to see Beltran here if we don’t have to give up too much. Not sold on Upton. Maybe a Melky Cabrera if we can’t get Beltran or a Quentin.

    1. “Ibanez is a valuable bat for a playoff run this year.”

      He has a .290 OBP and he’s one of the worst defensive players in baseball. He was noticeably late on a Rodrigo Lopez “fastball” last week. He’s had some success off of a few mop-up relievers this month (Proctor, Sanches) but he’s been dreadful this season and doesn’t deserve to see more than 1-2 starts a week if we end up acquiring an outfielder at the deadline.

    2. Ibanez is one of the least valuable players in baseball.

      He has atrocious range, he makes errors when he does make it to the ball and he throws like a 3rd grade girl. He also doesn’t walk, doesn’t have much power, and is hitting in less than .250 this year.

      You could bring back Bruntlett and put him in LF and you’d get the same value as Ibanez.

      1. Have you seen Dom in the field lately..not good.4 errors (less games then Raul) in the field and 0 assists..Ibanez with 3 assists and 1 error. Bruntlett? Stop. Ibanez has more power then Brown. Hey I’m not saying Ibanez is having a good yr. But what I’m telling you is that you can’t just give up on him. It is always good to have a veteran bat when the playoffs come around. Now if you want to compare ibanez and how Dom Brown will be in 2 yrs and then I’m with you on Brown. Let’s go Phils!

        1. “It is always good to have a veteran bat when the playoffs come around.”

          But Eric Bruntlett is a veteran bat… perhaps a qualifier should be added, like “good”, which Ibanez is not. Look, Ibanez has done exactly what we should expect a near 40 year old to do, which is slow way down. Errors are just about the worst way to judge an outfielder. Brown may miss a cut off man, and his routes are funky, but the reason Ibanez is always diving and sliding is because he is slow as molasses. Every time you see him doing that, just imagine how a quality outfielder would be standing under that ball.

        2. They should charge Ibanez with an error every time someone takes second because he tries to throw home and the runner is safe by 30 feet, but they don’t.

  47. Roman Quinn and Larry Greene are facebook friends and both seem as though they will sign by the way they are conversing.

  48. Whenever there is a quote from a MLB GM it should be regarded as utterances from the evil tooth fairy. They only open their mouths to gain some advantage.

  49. Why does no one discuss putting Domonic Brown in left? I realize that we are paying Raul alot of money there, but I mean going forward

    It seems so obvious that it would turn a minus fielder into a plus fielder (granted left field defense is not super important), especially at CBP

    -with less ground to cover, his misjudging of balls won’t matter, his speed will easily make up for it

    -with less ground to cover, the likelihood of him injuring himself will greatly decrease

    – in left at CBP he can actually use his height and jumping ability to catch balls that would otherwise go over the fence for homers. If I see him crash into the 14 foot right field fence anymore I’m going to lose my mind

    -as a lefty, it is easier to make catches going towards the line, whereas in the alley the corner OF’s are going to defer to the centerfielder anyway. I believe it is also a small advantage in setting up for the throws a Left Fielder needs to make.

    It is pretty clear at this point that Dom’s primary problem defensively is that he frequently misjudges fly balls, he is just not a natural outfielder. I’m sure that will improve some with reps, but to me that is more of a given talent than a learned skill.

    1. It hasn’t really been brought up for a few reasons. One, there isn’t less ground to cover in LF at CBP. Two, his arm is a huge plus and would be wasted in LF. How often does the LF have to throw to 1B? Now…how often does a RF have to throw to 3B?

      1. There certainly is less ground to cover in Left. I understand that an arm is more important in Right, but I disagree that Brown’s arm is wasted in Left, there are still throws to be made there.

        His arm is really wasted if he is on the DL from an awkward dive or a crash into the wall. If his ability to gauge fly balls improves, he can be moved back to Right.

  50. Worley and the playoff.

    Who would like to see come in long relief? Worley or KK. So the idea you can trade Worley because they have a lead is not valid.

    1. If the Phillies bring KK and/or Worley into long relief in a playoff game, they’ve already lost that game anyway because the starter got shelled.

        1. Oh….I don’t know. Mostly by watching baseball games. Tell me the Phillies record when any of the big 4 has pitched five innings or fewer. To save you the time, it’s 0-10.

    2. Well Kyle Kendrick has been solid out of the bullpen this year. If they had to use Worley or Kendrick, they’d be in a pretty bad spot anyway.

      Worley’s value is never going to be higher… Oswalt could be back in a week…

      Ship him out of here as far as I’m concerned and get a bat that has more value to us now than Worley EVER will in the future.

      1. The ‘trade high’ perspective does not translate into more implied value but I trade partner. Worley is not viewed by any team as anything more than a 4 or 5 guy. Perhaps a three if he continues to develop. Why offer Worley when you can move one of the youngsters in Clearwater? And if you trade Worley and then Oswaly goes down, who our 5th starter presuming Kendrick moves into the 4th starters slot.

        Keep Worley. Move another youngster if necessary. JMO

  51. finally you guys are talking about me. I be been expecting a trade to Philly since Ruben showed interest last year, r handed power is your glaring weakness, my team is likely going nowhere this season despite my 357th extra basehit of the season yesterday, and I’ll give u a year and a half instead of a rental. I will mash NL pitching and will dominate in that lineup and ballpark. my defense sucks , I admit, but I will make up for it with offensive production. this will be the blockbuster summer deal, I guarantee it

  52. In the Inky this morning, Brookover suggests Dom Brown, Cosart and Singleton for Pence. Pass.

          1. Other possible translation of the Brookover article: “I don’t know a whole lot about baseball, even though I get paid to write about it.”

  53. Brookover’s article was scary because I strongly disagree with his trade proposal and I also sense that there is a segment of the fan base that is scrutinizing Brown because they want someone else in rightfield. This is not the way to treat a developing young player. This could cause him to struggle and I imagine that this segment of the fan base will continue to scrutinize him even if no deal is made because they will question Amaro. “Look, he made another bad play, why didn’t you get Pence?” This is what they did to the three prospects we got for Lee last year. If this happens with Brown, I think he would be better off if he got out of here. Or he can have a long talk with Andre Iguodala.

    1. That shouldn’t be a factor because Hunter Pence isn’t available anyway.

      If the Phillies get Heath Bell or Mike Adams, I think the fan base should be fine. It’s just the idiots and the front runners (which there seems to be a lot of in Philly) who are getting on Domonic. (Chase Utley’s #’s in his first few years weren’t good).

      Is he terrible defensively? Absolutely… He doesn’t do much, if anything right out there, but his bat’s come around and I see him being a star.

      1. Chase’s third year was awesome and he was pretty darn good his second year. I like Brown’s potential a great deal but he is no Chase Utley. We are lucky enough to be around to watch the hands down greatest second baseman in Phillies history.

        1. Sorry. I forgot. Chase Utley is the greatest player ever, he’s a gold glover, MVP, and has no flaws. My mistake. I can’t believe I said one negative thing about him that wasn’t meant to be negative.

          How about I use actual statistics to back my argument.
          Domonic Brown in his first full year: .249/.338/.405
          Chase Utley in his first full year: .266/.308/.468

          Chase was 25 and Domonic Brown is 23. Similar numbers.

          My whole point was that Chase developed into the greatest second baseman in Phillies history, and probably the 2nd or 3rd best second baseman in baseball and he put up less than stellar numbers his first time around the league. My whole point was Domonic Brown has a chance to become that guy, despite struggling now.

    2. The funniest part is Pence has been falling all over in RF the past week, not that judging a guy off highlights is the best thing to do. But he’s been stumbling, misreading fly balls, falling down trying to go back on the ball.

        1. Or perhaps he is Jason werth’s clone with a little less polish. AT any rate he needs to break out of this slump.

  54. As much as we rag on Ibanez he is hitting .270 with a .480 slugging % since May 1st. Not too bad.

  55. Not thinking Philly trades D. Brown. Reportedly not for Halladay, Oswalt, etc. why now? Pence would be the ideal addition, but whether they trade him and what the haul might be could be problematic.
    Like the idea of the main guys in OF continue on to be Brown and Ibanez in Corner OF till end of season, and they can get hot, so no problem, regardless of stats oriented “complainers:.
    A package of interest to me would be from Florida:
    The closer candidate- Leo Nunez, LH reliever Randy Choate, IF Omar Infante ( to be a LF alternate that could slide to 2B, SS, 3B as needed) and they can add the minor league now IF-OF Chris Coghlan (who could fill that bench role in OF next season, given the non re-signing of Ibanez and Infante). Coghlan would be added to active roster September 1.

    What to give for that is problematic, I’ll go with Justin DeFratus as prospective future Closer for Marlins, also Benito Francisco, OF and Wilson Valdez IF, to fill for Marlins till end of season and perhaps beyond. Also I give the non-stike ’em out, Jonathon Pettitbone, The oft-injured Tyson Gillies, and to augment Gillies, on the condition they not protest possible disabled list status of Gillies, CF Jiwan James.

    Another similar package to go for from Oakland Athletics: Conor Jackson, OF/IF, Michael Wuertz RHP, Craig Breslow, LHP, and for an after September 1, prospective next season reserve, similar to what is described above Adrien Cardenas.

    The package going for either of these packages can be adjusted here and there.

    1. Marlins front office just announced that they will not be moving Nunez. I suspect too much competition from other available relievers may have made interest timid. Personally I’m still hoping for Bell, Ludwick. It’s hard not to like Mayberry, but can anyone honestly say that Ludwick isn’t better than Mayberry and Francisco? Ibanez even?

      Francisco would be the odd man out in this scenario. Not that the Phils are likely to extend arb to him this winter anyway. Disappointing year for Ben. Perhaps a change of scenery will help

      1. Mayberry has been more than serviceable and Ludwick is fully capable of stinking up the joint at a much higher price point while providing no speed and barely adequate defense.

        1. Serviceable as what? Not regular playing time, and certainly not as a middle of the order guy. Anyone is capable of stinking up the joint the last two months, including Ibanez, Mayberry and Francisco. I right-handed run producing outfielder would fit easily into this lineup. I don’t share your optimism that Mayberry is that guy

          1. Mayberry has come a long ways—-very good defensively with outstanding speed, and does have some pop in the Louisville slugger. Plus—he may be just hungry enough.

          2. He may not pan but he is cost controlled, won’t cost us prospects and does not make us older, slower and weaker defensively.

          3. Jr is fine in a platoon for now. Its Franisco who cant hold his end up. Mostly we need a good defensive outfield with a steady bat. Raul is a playoff “WHO KNOWS” but he plays a lot better rested as we have seen lately

    2. The one player I would covet on the Marlins is Logan Morrison and would pay a king’s ransom for him. But he’s so early in his career that he’s not going anywhere this year, or next year or probably even the year after that. Ditto for Mike Stanton.

        1. But, I think, notably better. Morrison has incredible patience and power to burn. It took O’Neill a long time to catch on. Morrison is coming into his own in his second year and he battles the pitcher as good as any young hitter I’ve seen in a while.

  56. Amaro and the Rays GM are trying to figure out a deal for BJ Upton. It’s been reported that it wouldn’t take much to get him. The Rays covet a shortstop prospect so would a deal centering Galvis and lesser caliber prospect be enough? That seems like a steal to me. I’m dreaming of a Brown Upton Victorino lineup. Talk about no doubles defense.

    1. Where was it reported, “it wouldn’t take much”?
      MLBTR reports the Rays are asking for a ton.

      1. Agreed. Everything I’ve seen of late has the Rays asking for alot. Certainly more than a Galvis-led deal. Who knows though. It’s becoming apparent that there’s not a whole lot of activity out there and most teams will likely wait until the last day or two before the deadline before finalizing deals. It’s going to be a long wait for some of the kids on the Pharm

    2. BJ Upton is immensely talented. But if the goal is to have a hitter who hits better than .250, Upon is not your guy.

      It amazes me that some people whine and complain about how bad they think Dom Brown is as a hitter and then (perhaps other people, or maybe even the same people – I’m not sure) talk about BJ Upton as a solution. Dom Brown is likely to become a far superior to BJ Upton as an offensive player – in fact, his OPS is already better than Upton’s. Dom Brown is raw, he makes dumb mistakes, but he has great strike zone judgment and he oozes with power and potential. Unless they were able to trade for a true star outfielder who is controllable for a few years (like, for example, Matt Kemp), there’s no way I’d ever include Dom Brown in such a trade and the dummies at the Inquirer and the Daily News who clamor for a trade of Brown and other top prospects for a fair, but not overwhelming, player (such as Pence or even Upton), are just out of their freaking minds. Really, they are clueless.

  57. Per Ken Rosenthal: Sources: #Phillies most aggressive on Pence. #RedSox have inquired, tough finding match. #Braves not currently involved. #tradedeadline #MLB

  58. Worley = JA Happ
    Not electric stuff, but very deceptive. The league will adjust and crush him when the time comes. A centerpiece deal around Worley would be a classic sell high. Go for it!
    Matt Kemp trade would be phenomenal, just not sure that the Dodgers run by MLB would make that deal. Pence is overvalued compared to Kemp who has put up greater numbers. I sense a complimentary deal not a blockbuster since the trade market is over inflated.

    I also would not sell Mayberry short. He is showing some great power and maybe a decent trade piece along with Worley and another prospect. Especially if you are going the OF route.

    1. Worley is far better than Happ was. Happ was a left with a average fastball/changeup who got by with a deceptive delivery. Worley has a 4 seamer that he commands very well. Augments that with a 2-seamer with wicked arm side run that he uses to brutalize lefties. He then has at the very least an average slider that he can bury or throw for strikes. And tonight he was throwing a curve that looked like a decent show me.

      As I said, Worley is much better. The only similarity between them is they are both rookie Phillie pitchers pitching over their heads.

      1. I like what I’ve seen out of him and think he’s got more than Happ as well. I wonder if Worley could learn a cutter eventually, just to give him another pitch when the league starts catching on to him.

      2. Looked like there were a ton of lineouts and warning track flies tonight. I think sooner or later he’s going to get shelled.

        I like that he was throwing strikes, though. If you don’t walk anybody at least most of the HRs will be solo, and you can give up a lot of solo homers and still be a pretty decent pitcher.

  59. I just don’t want to make a deal for the sake of it folks. Lets cooler heads prevail here and I trust in the deal that RAJ will make. I like the Infante trade given his age and flexibility. Almost like the NL version of Cuddyear. I would stay away from AL hitters with no experience with NL pitchers. A spare reliever would be nice as well to top things off into the playoffs.

    1. There was a time when hitters went through an extended adjustment period when switching leagues. Nowadays, I don’t think the adjustment needed is so significant.

      If I’m not mistaken, switching leagues once was a big problem for hitters because the two leagues had different strike zones. I believe that one reason for the difference in strike zones was the equipment worn by the home-plate umpires. One league’s umps wore small chest protectors inside their jackets. The other league wore bigger, more cumbersome chest protectors outside of their jackets. I believe that the bigger chest protectors made it more difficult for the home-plate umps to get in proper position to view balls and strikes. Equipment and strike zones have been uniform for quite a while now, however.

  60. How about Rauuuuuuuuul. I know some of you thought I was crazy with my Ibanez posts earlier. I even had to double check what I wrote. Nice 3 run hr and great catch in the 9th.

    1. He’s still overly streaky. He has a good game or two in every ten. Any average left fielder catches that ball in the ninth by standing under it and holding their glove out because they actually got there in time.

    2. Raul isn’t playing every inning of every game now and it shows. They need someone who can come in defensively to keep him fresh . Maybe Minimart later,

  61. Another call from a Phillies writer to make a Brown for Pence trade. I’d rather trade Brown for Hunter’s grandmother. Tim Kurkijan reported on Baseball Tonight that THE PHILLIES ARE NOT TRADING BROWN OR WORLEY. Jim Salisbury needs to get his head checked.

  62. Three strong innings for Grilli. Good for him.
    Every game the young pitchers get stronger. Is it just me but Stutes had his best breaking ball of the year his last game. The baby boomers are now 15 and 3 or .833 winning percentage.

    1. Grilli had a very shaky outing with his three walks and allowed three hits in his outing. He was lucky not to lose the game earlier for Pittsburgh. I don’t think that the Phillies made amistake releasing him from his contract.

  63. David Murphy wrote a blog suggesting trading Brown, Singleton and Cosart for Quentin. I’d love to see Quentin and his power in the 5 hole but that is way too much. Replace Brown with Mayberry and I may do it but I doubt the White Sox would.

    1. Ludwick projecting as a Type-B. Bell, Ludwick for 2011 and *three* 2012 draft picks. Still the best move for the Phils in my opinion. Cosart, James. Get it done

    2. I like Murph, but Brown, Cosart and Singleton is quite absurd. Phillies beat writers need to stop meeting for lunch to discuss trade scenarios. I’d be surprised if the ChiSox wouldn’t do that deal straightup for DBrown

      1. Its like Murphy doesnt know what the value of the farm system is. I dont like him and hes clueless on this one.

          1. How’s that? Cosart and James for Ryan Ludwick? That’s a major overpayment. Ludwick is above average in the age thing, makes around 6.5 million, has an expiring contract, and I wouldn’t be sure he could even out perform Benito Francisco. And for that a top pitching prospect and a CF prospect. And Forget that type B free agent stuff, what do you get around the 50th pick in the next draft and you can take another Zach Collier and see what you have in 5 years. Forget that.

            1. As to the criticism of David Murphy, he’s a writer whose level of expertise derives solely from looking up somebody else’s formulaic stats construct and citing it as the answer to everything. So he is your kindred spirit. How about a little solidarity from you people?

  64. i’d send Brown, Cosart and Singleton for Quentin and Thornton. that kills 2 birds with one stone.

    1. That still does not solve the bigger problem, Ibanez is a butcher in the field and Quentin might be worse. If you trade Brown then you have to play those two in the corners which is going to kill the pitching, plus going forward we now have a giant outfield hole. If we are going sell the farm for an OF they need to be the solution going forward in the outfield and Brown cannot be involved.

        1. And the 2 birds thing, they would be the organizational talent level, and the MLB OF defense, and maybe a few more bystanding birds as collateral damage.

  65. Apparently the Phillies are still making a run at Pence. Since Brown is off the table they want an elite pitching prospect.

    I see Pence as a complementary player who’s playing above his head right now (mainly his batting average). I’m not sure if I’d give up Cosart for him.

    1. Yeah, it pretty much sounds like Cosart would get it done even on a 1 for 1 deal.

      Tough trade to make but I’d lean towards giving him up.

      1. Oh wow, in a one for one? I’d do that in a second. For all his raw stuff, you’re still talking about a 20 year old pitcher who isn’t exactly dominating High A ball.

        Still don’t think the Astros would consider a deal without getting back immediate big-league help.

        1. Sorry but I just can’t believe anyone including Ed Wade would trade a:

          – Young
          – MLB RF
          – Who is under team control for 2+ yrs

          for 1 single A pitcher.

    2. I’m not a huge Pence fan but I’d do that trade even up. Cosart has #1 starter upside but with command, delivery and injury risks probably less than a 1/3 chance of reaching it. But I doubt that Houston would do it 1 for 1. Cosart plus another top prospect – no. Cosart plus even a couple mid range prospects – probably not.

  66. Sorry that was me, the anonymous. Just to add one more thing, if we can’t get a bat we can at least keep a good defense and pitching staff intact or improved to let those few runs we score hold up.

  67. Anybody seeing this Blue Jays/Cardinals/White Sox trade. Looks like the first big trade of the season is going down.

  68. I think we should just stick with a Mayberry/Ibanez platoon in LF or a Mayberry/Brown platoon in RF should deals with Quentin, Pence, or Beltran not happen. There’s no point in giving up assets for BJ Upton or Josh Willingham when you have a toolsy outfielder just beginning to put it together in John Mayberry, Jr.

  69. Giants close to acquiring Beltran, per mlbtraderumors. Looks like SF will be giving up their most recent first rounder, who was playing some incredible ball in single-A. Would be a nice return for NY. Will I’m sure likely make Pence cost that much more.

  70. I dont know if hte Phils need to counter this move but I hope they do. Still want Pence and Cosart and/or Singleton in a deal makes sense to me now. Rather keep Brown then trade him in a Pence deal.

  71. Is Brown, the player the Mets will receive, the same guy PhuturePhillies said that the Phillies would have drafted instead of Biddle but the GIants took him just ahead of the Phillies in the draft.

  72. If it is true that Beltran is moved to SF, it is time to get something to bolster our offense in order to keep up. The alternative would be to have KK drill Beltran in the knee with a pitch tomorrow night and we’d be back to square one.

    1. That doesn’t sound right. I’m thinking one of those two and a couple of B prospects maybe. But both of those guys? It doesn’t sound right for a grade B+ talent like Pence.

      1. If you forced me to guess, I bet the trade would be something like this: Pence for Cosart, Hernandez, Mayberry and Ramirez or Hyatt. Just a wild guess. Remember, when Ed Wade gets overwhelmed or confused you can bamboozle him by giving him quantity over quality.

        1. They were asking for 4 “sure things”. Not sure if they turned that down, but read the Phils were offeringba deal centered around cosart and singleton

      2. I dont see a huge upside in getting Pence other than hes RH and controllable for 2 more years. But this year I dont see him being much better than Brown has been the past month. Ibanez is up and down hes either REALLY bad or REALLY good.

      3. Grade B+ talent? If you read the sportswriters and commenters at philly.com you would know that he is the second coming of Stan Musial and that his acquisition is the only thing that stands between the Phillies and World Series glory.

  73. If Beltran is a giant, we need to make our move to fortify our position. I want Quentin or Pence. For Quentin, I’d give a little more.

  74. I agree with another poster on Quentin. DO u really want both he and Raul as ur corner outfielders? The D would suffer mightily and the pitchers would have heart attacks.

    1. I’m baffled by the notion that Quentin would replace Brown rather than Ibanez. Well, baffled but worried that that might indeed happen.

      If they replaced Ibanez with Quentin, and the cost in prospects wasn’t high, then it would be a good move. Replacing Brown with Quentin would be a really bad move, mainly but not entirely because of defense.

  75. He is the best offensive option on the market. How bad is he, much worse than Brown???

    1. Brown is mentally unprepared for RF but he has the physical tools, Ibanez is slow but he tries. Quentin could be replaced with a glove on the ground and it would be an improvement, he really is a DH who has been forced into the field by the equally bad Adam Dunn.

      (BTW I was the initial Anonymous)

  76. Man,
    just heard the Braves are hot after Pence. this is not good! The Braves have a loaded system to compete with the Phils and could better their offer.

    1. What does the Braves outfield look like if they get Pence? That would give them three corner outfielders (Heyward, Pence, Prado) and no centerfielder.

    2. charlie hustle…..loaded because they paid heavy bonus’ in the Latin market—six of their top ten prospects are Lastin signings,

  77. Christ, everyone needs to calm down with this “we need to counter” and “omg” attitude. We have the best record in baseball, ar a bazillion games up, and are better than the giants and braves even if they add pence, Beltran, and bell. They are the desperate teams – not us. I would rather stand pat, take my chances as the best team, and let out rivals pillage their farm systems. There will be next year. We will all be here wanting the 2012 flavor of the month next year and we will want/need prospects to trade for that guy as well. The idea of trading because of what other team’s do is infuriating.

    1. Completely agree, all of our prospects will be in AA by that time and at that point they are right on the door of the majors. The value for someone like Cosart at that point is astronomical.

    2. Having a crop of talented guys in AA for 2012 get us any closer towards winning the WS this year, or next. While I did not advocate giving up a top prospect for Beltran, and think the Giants overpaid, the move does greatly help their chances this year.

      For the Phils, we don’t need as much. But getting someone like Pence or Quentin, who are both controllable for 2012 as well, would be a strong move to improve the team. If we can get either for Singleton, Cosart, and 1-2 guys outside our top 10, then I’d accept that. Frankly, I’d say there is less than a 50/50 chance that Singleton has a career as strong as Pence or Quentin– and there are plenty of examples of young pitchers struggling with performance or injury (Drabek, Knapp, etc).

      For a 2 month rental? No thanks, but two years and two (likely) post-seasons with a RH bat behind Howard and an OF of Pence-Victorino-Brown? Sign me up, I’d like to win this year, and next. I’ll worry about 2013 later.

  78. I think we should stick with what we have THIS year, Ibanez is hitting (for now) and Brown has been doing a very good job for a rookie. Utley is hitting righties and lefties, Rollins is hitting, and Mayberry is crushing the ball. I think Charlie is doing a great job of platooning Brown and Ibanez for a game here and there against Lefties.

  79. McCann is on the DL.
    The only reason Brown is in right field is his arm. He is best suited for left next year( they can start working him in left during practice time)
    Mr Q over Pence by a mile
    I was impressed by the Padres reliever but where the hell will enough innings come from
    especially with Worley improving .
    Note: I would like to see them back up to 100 pitches next game. He has done it so what the hell is the hurry. A little break can’t hurt.

    1. The only reason to move from RF to LF is if the player doesn’t have enough arm to play RF or if they bring someone in who is better suited to play RF.

  80. From what I understand Cosart and Signleton will be far more valuable next year if they put up number in AA vs A. So if we wait a year on Pence we could get him for either Cosart or Singleton rather then both+. So id look into a lesser bat and one of those padres relievers preferably Adams. Then let Madson go and let Adams close. Unless it takes Cosart and Singleton to get Adams. If thats the case everything I thought means nothing.

    1. Reports say he was told in advance he’d have this day off. He’s listed as a bench player.

  81. Here is your laugh of the day. Right handers Ops against Bastardo ,391

    Note only 10 loses by the bullpen 4 by the departed Baez.

    1. Wheels tonight mentioned that Worley threw 114 pitches last night, with 5Ks AND no swing and misses for strikes the whole game. Now that is a real oddity for a pitcher in a CG.

  82. Ricky Bottalico seems to be a moron. (I am usually not in the Philadelphia area so I don’t get the “pleasure” of watching the pre-game show) Is this per usual or did I just catch him on a bad day?

    Bottalico is claiming that Worley should be kept over Dom Brown, which seems to be wrong. As much I like what Worley has done recently, he is not going to keep this up, his xFIP is almost 2 full runs over his ERA due to striking out less than 7 per 9 and walking over 3 per 9. Bottalico also claimed that Brown was rushed to the majors (he actually entered the system in 2006). One would think that someone who just needs to talk about baseball for a living would do their job looking into things like this.

    1. I see Ricky Bo regularly, and yes he can be a bit annoying—–he can be overly subjective without any open-mindeness to other’s opinions. I have learned to turn it off.
      Further, he detests ‘sabermetricism’.

    1. was he that bad in lehigh valley? his offense is coming around, but i don’t think the phils can afford to have someone like that in RF when the postseason rolls around.

  83. Lidge appears as if he’ll be a serviceable middle reliever for the remainder of this year

  84. game tonight brought back bad memories of last postseason. once SF gets into the seventh inning with a lead, the phillies are cooked. nothing’s changed.

  85. Looks like both Burrell and Stairs will be released as Giants and Nationals make room for new players. Anyone tempted to relive 2008?

    1. I’d prefer to see Mayberry batting 5th, playing RF rather than Burrell. And Gload has Stairs roster position and is doing pretty well.

  86. The claim Pence is Grade B type with no power is the usual fare from this array. Since people seem to claim a great level of expertise from reading stats, they should read some. Top of the line defense, which you won’t get from Quentin, Check how many top finishing categories on the defensive side, and offense as well. The 162 game average on HR’s is at 27 last time I looked, how is that no power. Quentin would be around 35 per season average , I would say, so that’s his advantage. Quentin , however, has historically had a low rate of hits against LHP’s, so what does he add really ? Now you might think OPS against LHP’s is all right, and people will simply look at that, and boom instant expert no matter how few AB;s it is based on or whatnot. The OPS of Quentin against LHP’s would be based on the higher HR rate, a few more extra base hits than most, and the walks that accrue to Quentin because they fear the HR’s and XBH’s. The number of hits Quentin gets per AB against LHP’s is below average, plus the defensive minuses, and for the playoffs one would think he would replace D. Brown, if it does not cost Brown to get Quentin. Don’t see how Quentin is the better choice for the Philly team at this point. It would probably cost a great deal of prospects, etc, to get either.

    1. I don’t want either Pence or Quentin if it costs Brown. I certainly don’t want Quentin if it means starting him and Ibanez in the same OF.

      And you speak like extra base hits and walks are bad things.

      The appeal for Quentin is that it seems that Ed Wade is asking far too much for Pence and Quentin potentially could come with Matt Thornton.

  87. Reports are the Phillies had a deal in place for Pence including Singleton, Cosart and a lesser prospect. It appears that Houston backed out. They are probably holding out for the inclusion of Domonic Brown. The Beltran deal really raised the market value of Pence. Man, I hope Pence can deliver. Philly is a far cry from Houston folks.

    Fukadome goes to Indians for two lesser prospects.

    1. After last night’s display, and his insistance on holding his hands above his head like some sort of lumber jack – Houston can have Brown, we’re keeping Singleton.

        1. I have to agree with Bob here haha. He’s not making fantastic contact when he puts the ball in play right now, but he’s making the pitcher work everytime and getting on base at a great clip. I think we need to resign ourselves to the fact that he’s probably going to be streaky.

  88. Melky Cabrera is not in Thursday’s lineup against the Red Sox.
    He is likely just getting the day off, but you can never be too sure at this time of year. Cabrera is batting .297 with 12 homers, 57 RBI and 14 stolen bases and has drawn interest from contenders. Mitch Maier will make the start in center field Thursday and bat second against right-hander Josh Beckett.

  89. If I’m the Phillies, before I dump the cash register to take on Hunter Pence, I take a very careful and long look at Melky Cabrera and Alex Gordon. Both can probably be had for a much more reasonable price and both have outperformed Pence in the WAR department this year. Gordon is especially appealing because he’s under control for a few more years and can play third base. Rather than pay him big money in arbitration, they can trade him to the Phils for very good prospects.

    I still think they might get Quentin, but don’t rule out an out-of-the-box move like one of these.

    1. I agree with everything you say to a point – Pence isn’t worth an obscene amount of cash with such a low SLG%. And Melky Cabrera? Don’t think so. He has no value – he’s not an upgrade over Mayberry in any way.

      Gordon is an interesting thought, except that he’s LH and pretty much defeats the purpose of getting a RH bat for the stretch run.

      But those out-of-the-box ideas are the types of things the Phils like to do in these situations.

  90. I like out of the box thinking and would like to look away from OF positions for a RH bat. 3B is a spot you can platoon with based on who is pitching and what kind of lineup you want.

    Mayberry should be a defensive replacement for Ibanez after the 7th inning. Give me Aramis Ramirez from the Cubs at 3B and 5-hole in the lineup and Nunez as waiver trade pickup from the Marlins Ramirez agent wants him to be a free agent in order to get an extension and the big dollars this offseason from the Angels. The Phillies only need him this year and cannot afford to get older. So the Phillies oblige and waive the club option for next year and only give up two decent prospects to the Cubs.

  91. Pat Burrell officially released. I’d rather have him on my roster than Valdez and Herndon. He could provide a RH pinch hitting or platoon option for Ibanez. Not the solution, but maybe an improvement??

    1. I tentatively agree, his spot on the bench is a RH Ross Gload, the spot he would take (Valdez is gone when Polanco is back) is Mayberry and the question is would you rather have Burrell or Mayberry

      1. I think Mayberry has passed Francisco by and I would keep him on the roster and dump Little Ben.

        1. I agree—-Mayberry can do more things than Ben Fran. He needs to be utilized more as a runner and defensive replacement when not starting.

  92. Ludwick out of the lineup tonight. Speculation from San Diego Tribune of a trade in the works. Bell and Ludwick. Get it done

    1. You are correct. With the cost of Pence and Quintan getting out of hand, it is only logical to go after Ludwick / Bell or Adams trade here. Either way, I trust RAJ has a backup plan for Pence. His history proves that fact.

      1. I felt the Pods were the best available trade partner for a few weeks. Bell and Ludwick would be a perfect fit and anything we give up in youngsters could be recouped in draft picks next season (potentially 3 comp picks for Bell and Ludwick). It’s going to take a top prospect to get them, but I’d still prefer Bell and Ludwick versus giving up the store for Pence. We’ll know either way in a few days or less

        1. Stark believes the Pods view the Rangers and Phillies as the most attractive trade partners

          1. I believe the glut of position player signings from draft this year and pitchers already in the system makes certain single A players expendable without feeling an impact long term.

            I would go after Adams instead since he would be under club control and it would not conflict with Madsen desire for long term deal. Too many hens in the henhouse with Bell.

  93. Comp picks will only be awarded if we offer arbitration—–Bell could score a very high number there which the Phils will not risk. Ludwick would be more likly to accept arbitration and would result in an overpay situation.

    1. The thing is with arbitration and why Bell and Ludwick would both reject it is that it is a one year deal, someone will overpay both of them on multi-year deals, why would they risk injury or other detriments on a one year deal

    2. Ludwick will be a type-B. There would be no loss of picks by any team who signs him. He would likely reject arb

    3. What? The Phils wouldn’t offer Bell arbitration? Seriously? Of course they would. And he would certainly reject the offer

    1. I hear you. But Ludwick has shown ability to hit for power in the past with 37 and 22 homeruns in 2008 and 2009, respectively. He is a career .262 hitter currently at .238 in a bad lineup. CBP and batting behind Ryan Howard should help. He would need to pick up the stats in order to get a raise in arbitration next year.

      You can probably bring back Pat Burrell for nothing, save your prospects, and get the same output.

    2. He plays in the most ridiculous pitcher’s park in existence. Look at his stats from last year before he was traded. In STL (also a pitchers park), he posted an .827 OPS in 312 PA before the trade.

        1. U sure about that? A quick check of his career stats, pre and post Petco, would confirm otherwise

    3. You have to consider the effect that Petco has on a hitter’s stats. He’s still knocking in runs though

      1. Folks. This giants series is a direct indication of a playoff series . I believe the road to the World Series goes through San Francisco. The phillies need to make the best move possible . Perhaps a Ludwick and SD relief pitcher would be familiar enough with SF to put you over the top. Just a thought as I watch our offense do nothing once again.

        1. Matt Gelb tweeted that the Phillies have faced Cain and Lincecum five times since last October and scored five earned runs TOTAL against them. Yikes …

  94. Does anyone else feel like the Cosart + Singleton + Level B Prospect was a smokescreen? I can’t expect Wade would be dumb enough not to accept that. Moreso, I could totally see Amaro helping his buddy Wade drive up Pence’s value after they couldn’t come to terms themselves

    1. Lincecum has made a fool of Utley all night, with men on. But tomorrow, somehow, it will be either Domonic Brown or Ryan Howard’s fault.

      1. You are correct. Howard and Utley have not dominated as high priced players should in the playoffs. Utley swinging at ball 4 there. Brown needs more time. He is almost in breakout scenario and just needs more at bats. Don’t be surprised if he has a ,huge September after breaking 100 games played in career. Seriously folks.

        1. What? Utley tied the MLB record for most home runs in a single World Series! I believe he holds the Phillies all time postseason record for most HR. He set the MLB postseason record for most consecutive games successfully reaching base.

      2. I’m surprised by Utley… then again he usually struggles against Linceccum for his career but he looked awful all night.

  95. i’m worried they’ll overpay for pence.

    btw, the pirates have the world’s worst offense (watching them against the braves). i hope they keep it up when they come to philly.

  96. I’m not really sure Pence is the difference against the Giants… for his career, he’s been pretty bad against their pitchers. Maybe he steps up in a short series against them but here are the numbers:

    3/22 against Linceccum with a double
    3/12 against Cain with a home run, double, and triple

    doesn’t say what he has against Sanchez and he probably hasn’t faced Bumgarner and he only has one AB against Wilson.

    1. meanwhile Beltran against the Phillies pitchers: he rakes against Halladay, Hamels, and Madson, although recently, he’s struggled against Halladay.

      Beltran was the guy to go after because he’s hitting .500 against Linceccum for his career and .300 against the guys I mentioned for Pence.

  97. Ken Rosenthal, who always seems well sourced, says that the Phils are nearing a deal for Pence which revolves around Singleton and Cosart and a third/fourth prospect. I guess I’d be ok with that, provided the third or fourth guys were further down the list. All the usual stuff about Pence is vs. Singleton might be, and Cosart might be great, or he might be Jason Knapp.

    1. I’d imagine the third or fourth guys are going to be solid prospects. Probably a Cesar Hernandez and Jonathan Pettibone, Trevor May, or Brody Colvin

      I think the emergence of Jesse Biddle has made Jarred Cosart expendable, although this is probably the only deal he is available in.

  98. I’m kind of getting sick of trading the farm every six months, but oh well… bring on Pence. I do hope Valle is not in the package. Next year it will be Hanley Ramirez.

    1. I think they drafted at least 5 legit big league prospects:

      The Greenes, Giles, Martinez, and Quinn, so that should help out a little bit in terms of restocking the farm.

    2. One of the reasons to have a good farm is to trade away players for ones that are already developed.

  99. Is James a second tier prospect? I just started to really like him and hate to see him go. Either way if we get Pence please start him over Raul and not Brown.

  100. The more I think about it the more I am open to a Cosart/Singleton offer (I would prefer much less), both could really come back to bite us in the ass but they both have huge risk (reliever with health issues and 1B with limited power). That being said the 3rd/4th player better not be; Valle, May, Biddle, James, Galvis, or Santana. I hoping it is really fringe guys JC, Hyatt, or at worse JRod.

    1. Here’s what I posted in an article KG wrote in regards to Jonathon Singleton:

      He is the second youngest guy in the league right? He has a triple slash of .284/.388/.415 and in the 35 games since the all star break he’s batting a lusty .341/.422/.545(19!) He’s 8th in the league in walks and 17th in homeruns.

      I sorted the league by OPS on B-Ref and he’s 33rd (When I sorted it on MiLB’s site he was 21st. Different qualifiers I guess). The average age of all the guys above him? 23 and a half. He’s 19! That’s crazy.

  101. Of course Singleton has limited power he isn’t even 20 yet. Call back in five years and restate that.

    BTW Pay no attention to Greene he is just trying to impress us.

    1. I was not saying he would never develop power, he is 19 years old, a lot can happen between now and him reaching the bigs. He has a good likelihood of being a monster who just mashes it but he is a 19 year old which is risky that he never reaches projections.

  102. An arguably lesser package netted the Phils a living legend (Halladay), so I would have preferred to trade Cosart & Singleton a year from now for Hanley. Obviously (and rightfully so) they feel like they need to win it this year.

  103. Saw that Jim Bowden said that the asking price is Cosart, Singleton, May. I think I’ve got to do that.

    1. Thats alot tho. If we are strictly win now then get it done but if any of those guys perfume next year in AA their value will be soo much higher. Tough to say goodbye to those three and Im not sure which one would hurt the most.

      1. I’m really torn on this. Hunter Pence isn’t worth that type of package, but we need somebody to hit behind Howard.

        I’d be all for getting Quentin to play left and Bench/Release Ibanez because quite frankly, while Brown is struggling, he’s on base almost every night. But I know that’s not going to happen.

        1. Pence isn’t the guy to hit behind Howard. Victorino crushed LHP. Pence does most his damage vs RHP. Check out his lefty splits this year vs Brown’s lefty splits. They really aren’t much of an upgrade… certainly not worth gutting the farm system.

          Pence: .281 avg, .781 OPS
          Brown: .290 avg, .726 OPS

        2. Pence isn’t the guy to hit behind Howard. Victorino crushes LHP. Pence does most his damage vs RHP. Check out his lefty splits this year vs Brown’s lefty splits. They really aren’t much of an upgrade… certainly not worth gutting the farm system.

          Pence: .281 avg, .781 OPS
          Brown: .290 avg, .726 OPS

    1. Actually, I don’t think so. Drabek was our top pitching prospect, like Cosart, and considerably further along, and D’Arnaud was (and definitely is) a fantastic prospect at a position that is far more valuable than Singleton’s. At the time of the Halladay deal people were seriously debating whether Taylor or Brown was the right outfielder to keep. Now, you can debate whether Pence is worth it (I’m torn) and maybe Singleton and Cosart make it look stupid in a few years, but objectively, no, as long as we don’t throw in Brown, this is not a better deal than the one we gave up for Halladay.

      1. I don’t know dude – I understand the Billy Beane school of thought where you don’t watch the games individually as to avoid having your eyes draw conclusions based on such a small sample size, instead relying on numbers over an entire season. But even my grandmother can see that Brown throws to the wrong base, misses the cut-off man with regularity, doesn’t track catchable fly balls and looks like an absolute horse’s rear end at the plate while holding his hands above his head like some sort of Solid Gold dancer.

        I’m not saying I want to send him packing for Hunter Pence, but he’s rapidly taking himself off of the “untouchable” list.

        1. Brown will be an all star. Brown for Pence even up would be one of the worst trades in Phillies’ history.

          But it’s a somewhat moot point. Brown won’t be in the deal. Even Amaro isn’t stupid enough to trade Singleton, Cosart AND Brown for Pence. There isn’t a player in the game that I would trade those three for.

          The whole baseball world is LAUGHING at the Phillies for even considering what would be the worst trade in baseball in the past decade – at least.

          1. I think the Braves have the market cornered on worst trades of the last decade. Adam Wainright for JD Drew anyone? Half their minor league system for Mark Teixeira who they in turn dealt for NO ONE. So let’s not get carried away with hyperbole.

            Every game Brown plays he looks further and further from being an all-star. I hope he turns into one, but he looks lost right now – at best.

            1. Simply delusional.

              Look, the fielding stuff I’ll grant you to a significant extent, though his speed and athleticism partly make up for it so he isn’t quite as bad as he looks out there. He would be fine in left.

              But hitting – this stuff about his stance is 100% BS because some people are unhappy that he isn’t immediately absolutely crushing major league pitching. He is already an above average hitter, his BB/K data are great – I’ve NEVER seen a player with that kind of BB/K data fail, given enough AB, especially a guy with power. As a hitter, Brown’s floor is Pence’s ceiling. His ceiling (which I think he will reach) is a perennial all star.

            2. What’s delusional? Did the Braves not trade Wainright for Drew who they only had for a season? Did they not trade 3 top prospects to the Angels for Teixeira who they flipped for nothing? What’s delusional about that?

              J/C just because someone disagrees with your assessment of a player they’re delusional?

              I also stated that I hope Brown turns out to be half as good as certain scouts and experts say he can be – but I’m still delusional?

              And yes, .247 certainly = “not crushing the ball” in case you were wondering.

            3. Brown is hitting .303 with a .789 OPS for July… certainly doesn’t look like he is lost to me.

            4. He doesn’t look lost, he looks really raw in the field but that can be worked on, at the plate he almost always has a quality at bat and sees a ton of pitches. When he becomes comfortable with his swing and starts driving the ball (which all of his minor league experience shows he can do) he is going to be a monster because he will be waiting on that pitch that he can hammer.

        2. Sorry Rick, you can take your fundamentally sound, “looks like a ballplayer” prototype. I’ll take my dynamic athlete with explosive power/speed/arm strength any day.

          And should our teams ever meet, well, I’m sure you’ll be a good sport when you lose.

          1. When did I mention something about prototypical ballpayers? I just mentioned that Brown won’t hit with that ridiculous stance.

            But I appreciate you getting personal with your response, that was mature of you.

            1. Not sure what you’re taking as personal Rick, my refrerence to being a “good sport” when you lose is just making light of your placing value on “fundamentals” (since along with fundamentals, our little league coaches also stressed sportsmanship… a bit attenuated, but c’mon, do we have to be so serious!)

              Anyway, I’m just commenting on your supposition that being what appears to be “fundamentally sound” is somehow a way to measure of productivity. You show me two AAA ball players, assuming they are the same age, with equivalent numbers, but one of whom is an athletic freak who doesn’t always make the easy/right play, the other is a fundamentally sound, but average athlete, the athletic freak is a far more valuable commodity and is far more likely to be a difference maker in the show. Dom Brown has given us a lot of reason to think he’ll be a star. That he doesn’t always do the things the way you were taught to do it as a little leaguer is just about the worst way to judge his value.

          2. Does Anthony Hewitt fall into that “dynamic athlete” category you spoke of so glowingly? You wouldn’t win my local Stan Musial League with a team full of Hewitts…. just wondering.

            1. I know that… there should be a font for sarcasm. Look Hewitt and Brown are not comparable and I’m sure I don’t need to spend much time discussing why. But superior athleticism combined with performance is what leads to transcendent ball players. Fundamentals don’t matter that much if you have Gary Sheffield’s bat speed, or Vlad Guerrero’s bat control, or his arm strength for that matter. Not that Brown will turn into a near HOFer like those two, but he has a chance to, and that’s special.

            2. I read the sarcasm – I should’ve put my response in italics so you knew I was joking as well. Sorry that my inflection was lost in the typing.

              Anyway – I hope you’re right about Brown but I live less than 2 miles from the stadium, have already been to over a dozen games this season and aside from the 2 homer night he’s shown very little. On top of that he’s proven to be a liability in the field. Little Leaguers know to hit the cut off man and what base to throw to and that skill seems to have escaped him.
              Gary Sheffield? Please, at this point Gary Matthews is a reach.

  104. This is a guess but Im betting the Phillies are giving up this amount of quality prospects cause the Astros are kicking in some doe so the owners can agree to the deal.

    1. I really don’t think you can compare those two situations. Halladay basically told the Jays “Trade me to the Phillies, or I don’t accept a deal.” I think he would have accepted a trade to NYY or Boston but they obviously wouldn’t trade him there.

      1. Yep, they are also not comparable because Halladay agreed to a below market, 3 year deal a condition of the trade.

        So not only was Halladay a far more valuable player, he was not a rental. We shouldn’t be giving up half of that trade for Pence.

        And I don’t think we will. All this rumor mongering is laughably uninformed. To get this straight, do we now take it as fact that the Astros turned down Cosart/Singleton/B grade prospect?

        If so, I’ve got some beach front property in Florida you might be interested in.

    2. Doe like Bambi? Ok make the trade. Sorry could not resist it. God knows I have been called on many brain freezes.

  105. Maybe I’m being myopic, but thats a heckuva lot to get a guy with a .136 lifetime avg against Lincecum.

  106. I would not do the Pence deal.as.described. I do not view him as difference maker or an overwhelming upgrade. The past pitching additions have been clear upgrades and well worth the price paid. I would honestly prefer a scrappy RH bat like reed Johnson. I think his return on investment would be superior because I cannot imagine his price to be all that high. He and mayberry could be the RH platoon mates to Ibanez and Brown. The scrappy gnats are usually the guys that win you playoff games.

  107. I don’t understand all the “win now” crap. We have a top 5 payroll and a stocked farm system. We aren’t an aging team in a salary cap league. Top 5 payroll teams will always be competitive. The “window” isn’t closing. Sigh. I give up. I don’t mind giving up costar, but singleton, costart, ? That seems crazy for a good (not great) player.

  108. Win now means the core players are in their prime. The prospects we give up for a proven major league player are just that prospects. Maybe they will be solid players or maybe the get hurt or just don’t pan out. To get a proven mlb outfielder like Pence give up the prospects. Pence is not a superstar but he is a solid mlb player who has a history of success and enough at bats to predict what he will be in the futire and is team controlled for the next 2 years. With the Phils current roster adding a bat like Pence makes sense for the win now period which is the next couple of years.

    1. Win now is a self fulfilling prophesy if you trade away everyone who might be good in the future. The Phillies are a top-3 payroll team and anywhere but the AL East that means you don’t rebuild, you reload. They should be a perennial playoff team until MLB institutes a salary cap. Pence is an upgrade this year and next, but not a big one and not one that justifies multiple top-100 prospects.

  109. If were giving up Singleton and Cosart and possibly Brown. I would call LA and see if Kemp can be had. He’s the impact bat that we need. I like Pence but for what the Astros want for him, I rather have a Matt Kemp.

    1. AGREEEEE, there is no way LA turns down Brown, Cosart, Singleton and maybe a throw in for Kemp…. At this time I feel Amaro has a chip on his shoulder that says I can do what I want when I want without being hurt. Cosart and Singleton may or may not turn out to be what we imagine them to be but 2 top 50 prospects and a 3rd quality prospect is not worth Pence!

    2. He’s not available. If he was… they’d be bidding on him. Not like they don’t know he’s a good bat.

  110. Hey guys. I’ve been taking the NY/NJ bar exams the past three days and I’m completely out of the loop. I’m trying to catch up on the latest rumors but there’s such a large back log at this point. Is everyone pretty sure that Brown is out of any deal for Pence at this point? It it would hurt to give up the cosart/singleton package but giving up a package that also includes Brown doesn’t seem to make any sense at all.

  111. I don’t like this very much. The more I think about it, the more I think it would have been worth it to rent Beltran for a couple of months. Beltran is a better offensive player than Pence (and he is not bad in the outfield either, as last night’s brilliant catch will attest) and if we had to surrender a top pitching prospect (Cosart) and a solid B level prospect (Aumont or Rodriguez, for example), who cares? We have loads of talented young pitcher and pitching is not our problem and won’t be for many years. But trading more talent than was included of any of our prior big name trades for a B+ player? It’s not worth it – I don’t know what the heck Ruben is thinking.

    Honestly, I’d rather have Quentin anyway. We have great pitching and generally, the fielding is fine. We need a righty who can flat out rake for the stretch run. That’s Quentin or Beltran. Again, Hence is fine and is an upgrade – but is he worth all the solid gold prospects that have been mentioned? No, he’s not. The psychology of this Pence trade is bizarre – much like watching an out of conrol auction.

  112. Hopefully Amaro is doing what he did previously in 2009, with Toronto. Hopefully he doesn’t trade all of that for Hunter Pence. For me, he doesn’t make enough of a difference, due to his average power. I’m still hoping for Carlos Austin.

  113. Cain and Lincecum dominated the Phils over the last two starts and they are right handed pitchers aren’t they??? But we just GOTTA deal the farm for a RH bat named Pence! Come on Rube…

      1. Not my point. Just stating that the Phils hitting woes at times (and in the playoffs in particular) would not be solved by Pence considering their left handed batters’ struggles against good RH pitchers (i.e. – Cain and Lincecum). So why sell the house by dropping Cosart, Singleton, and company on a guy who, as Nowheels showed, has great season stats but has been ice cold at the plate for the last three weeks.

  114. For what it is worth Pence since July 7 .183 with 1Hr 1triple and no doubles and 3 rbi. Great another streak hitter. The more I think about Bourn makes much more sense. Then the Phils could also play some speed ball.
    Kemp is only a dream a great dream. Pence could be a nightmare. Defense is so important this year and with this team.

  115. you cant hit the giants righthander cain and linucum and do nothing against there lefthanders, you need to find more than a pence. if the giants score two runs with any starter pitching for them but zito its a win. howard and utley need to step up against these ptichers more than a trade for pence/

  116. i’m hoping what we’re reading is not what amaro is going to surrender in a pence deal. but if there;s a bidding war for him, the winner will undoubtedly overpay.

    btw, the reason singleton is even being discussed is because he’s blocked by howard. it’s really too bad his switch to the outfield didn’t work out.

    1. He’s 19 and is not a bad athlete!!!! I cannot for a second believe that the window is shut on Singleton playing left field.

  117. Batting average .309 (Ranks 18th in the majors)
    On-base percentage .356 (50th in the majors)
    Slugging percentage .472 (54th in the majors)

    *from ESPN

  118. RAJ would be crazy to trade Brown, Cosart and another pitching prospect for Pence. What about Singleton and (Defratus or Scwimmer or Aumont) and Ben Fran for Quentin?

    1. replace Francisco (nobody wants him) with Cesar Hernandez and Hyatt and now you have a trade brewing.

  119. At what point does Amaro just turn to the Rays and say I will give you Cosart, DeFrantus, and James for Upton. Even if he isn’t the hitter that Pence is he can play better defense and from all reports is going to cost less in prospects now that the Pence bidding is out of control.

    You then can give Brown and Ibanez days off with a better defensive replacement against tough lefties. You could even put Mayberry out there with Upton and Vic and have the Lefties off the bench later.

      1. It isn’t an enormous gaping problem, the players we have need to hit consistently ( Howard, Rollins, Utley, Victorino). The problem is to upgrade on the offense takes players that aren’t available on the market. The difference between Brown and Pence is much smaller than the difference between a healthy Polanco and MM. We have to come to grips that our offense is down across the board there is not really a glaring whole where a huge offensive upgrade can be made and that the player to fill it does not exist.

  120. I don’t know if I am liking this either. We are going to give up a boatload for Pence. Geez, If you called the Dodgers and said we’re about to give up May, cosart and Singleton for Pence, would you take that for Kemp, the answer may be yes. I am thinking I’d rather get Reed Johnson for lesser guys and trade prospects for Adams or Thornton. I just can’t stand the suspense!!!

  121. I feel like this warranted a different post.

    Does anyone else feel that Manuel should switch Brown and Mini-Mart in the order. Martinez has proven his worth (a better cheaper Wilson Valdez) but he is being completely exposed (there are reasons that bench players are bench players). Brown needs the ABs plus he is seeing a lot pitches (allows those behind him to see the pitcher more and gives more opportunities for Rollins to run), he is also getting on base at a decent clip (important in front of Utley and Howard) and he is putting the ball in play, additionally he may not be quite as fast as mini-Mart but he is not the DP machine that Polanco is in the 2 spot either.

    1. I think Mini-Mart should be hitting 8th. He’s pretty clearly the worst hitter on the team and shouldn’t be getting the second most plate appearances. It doesn’t line up that often that you want a “get ’em over” at bat from the 2 hitter and it’s usually a waste of an out anyway. If JRoll wants 2nd he can take it. He’s still an incredibly efficient base stealer.

      1. I’d rather just move everyone up in the order one spot:
        Utley 2nd; Howard 3rd, etc.
        You’re giving MM more ABs than Utley, Howard and Victorino? I’m not a card-carrying member of SABR but I do appreciate the fact that your best hitters hit 2-4 to get the most ABs. In no way does MM fall into the category of anyone’s best hitter.

      2. But to answer the original question – I wouldn’t move Brown to 2nd, but he could certainly be hitting 6th. The division isn’t won yet, nor is a playoff birth clinched, so I’m not inclined to hit him 2nd in order to get him an extra few ABs per week when his production is so poor.

        1. Brown is hitting .303/.411/.379 in July. If that doesn’t say “#2 hitter” then I don’t know what does.

  122. Heyman now tweets that the Astros “don’t love” any of the Phillies prospects. He also stated that it is becoming a soap opera. Good IMO. Should be looking to hook up with SD, not Houston anyway

    1. Yeah at this point we are really in danger of overpaying. I know the goal is the World Series but for a team like the Phillies it isn’t worth the future for a move that marginally helps us this year (does anyone think that Pence would have really helped last night). This organization is well beyond just going for it, they are now in a place of trying to sustain success and that means the next wave of talent to replace the aging stars.

    2. i was just about to post that, lol. he said earlier today the stros prefer the braves’ prospects, but atlanta doesn’t want to part with any of its big four pitchers. i’m beginning to wonder if there’s not really a bidding war at all, but houston trying to draw teams in to make one.

      1. This is what I’m hoping. RAJ is working with his old buddy to raise the stakes for the Braves. This would serve the Phillies long-term best interests, especially if the Braves were going to get Pence anyway.

        As it stands, we’re appear to be offering WAAAAY to much, which leads me to believe we’re just upping the stakes for the Braves. I hope…

    3. This could also be a way to gracefully explain away how these sportswriters have all be spouting these rather fantastic rumors, and when the Astros take some other package from a different team that seems like a lot less than the Phillies supposedly offered, these same hacks will be able to say, “well, the Astors just didn’t like the Phillies prospects.”

      I normally tend to believe where there’s smoke there’s fire, but I really really really doubt the Astros turned down Cosart/Singleton/+. I just don’t believe that was offered, and if Pence goes elsewhere we may never know and 12 months from now we’ll be listening to the same guys make up new outlandish rumors.

      1. I don’t agree with that. Pence is under team control for two more seasons. It’s not outlandish to think they would reject a Cosart/Singleton package. Not everything is a conspiracy to mislead the public

        1. I think we can safely say, we don’t agree on much. Nothing at all really given what I’ve seen of your posts.

          At any rate, no conspiracies here chief. Just good old fashioned rumor mongering. When (and if) rumors you promote turn out wrong, it’s wise to create a soft landing zone.

          And just to point out, for the next two years “under team control” really means “arbitration eligible”, so while his next team won’t have to lavish a multi year deal on him, he won’t be a bargain.

          1. ‘under team control’ means ‘under team control’. You have a way of interpreting the obvious as if you yourself were making the point. We don’t agree on much, captain

    4. Current rumor is the one none of us want to hear, Brown is involved but the Astros don’t want him so they are looking for a third team to spin him off to (this just sounds ridiculous and stupid, it is like the Astros just giving away Gose in the Oswalt deal)

        1. I just read that rumor and i got sick to my stomach. Why would Rube ever entertain the idea of the Phils top 2 prospects plus Brown, who by himself should end up better than Pence. Pence is not worth it and this trade sounds so absurd my brain started bleeding. PLEASE LET THIS TRADE FALL THROUGH!!!!!

          1. It’s worse than that. I was stupid enough to give RAJ the benefit of the doubt, but he is clearly the worst GM in team history and possibly the worst GM in baseball history. About to be absolutely fleeced by the previous worst GM in team history.

          2. i’m totally bummed out right now. since you’re the only team left standing in the pence sweepstakes, reduce your offer, not add to it!!!!

  123. For those who dislike Brown: If he is so bad, you might want to consider why every GM discussing a deal with the Phillies asks for him to be included in their trades.

    If the Phillies acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder, it is not clear to me when and where he would play. I think that Ibanez is still going to play most of the games in left field. Most people think that Brown won’t be included in a trade, in which case he needs to be sent down to AAA where he can play every day or or, if not, he needs to start most of the games in right field. It is hard to imagine the Phillies sending Brown down, but even harder to imagine that they would give up so much for a an acquisition such as Pence, Upton or Quentin and not use him regularly.

  124. yeah just read astros dont love the prospects good, go get a johnson or lesser guy and keep cozart, I really hate to lose him,.after seeing him throw that curve and fastball. my only concern is injury with him.WHAT I can’t beleive is the white sox wouldnt take a package of brown, cozart and someone else for quinton.

    1. Exactly! U dont want Cosart and Singleton then wonderful. I prefer to keep them anyway and see how they do next year. Go get a relief pitcher and a secondary bat and call it a day.

  125. latest from several sources is the phils will do anything to land pence. crap!!!! he’s not worth it, ruben!!!!!

  126. Is this a joke? Their making our system sound terrible and making Wade sound like a monster negotiator. Ive vested too much into PhuturePhillies to see it these 3+ players leave for only Pence. Does Houston have a good reliever to throw in at least?

  127. Now reports are saying that the Phillies are trying to get a third team involved and Brown may be on the move. Since when is Hunter Pence the second coming of DiMaggio?

  128. Longtime reader just have never posted. Love this site.
    Felt the need to post now. I completely agree with PYW. If we refused to give up Dom Brown in a deal for Halladay, why in the world are we (supposedly) thinking about it now? If Dom hits his ceiling, he’ll be 2x as valuable as Pence. Pence is certainly the best bat on the market, but he’s overvalued and we’re about to overpay (or so it seems)

    1. If these rumors are true (and there is plenty of reason for doubt), it is because Ruben is running out of time while Ed Wade can trade Pence in the offseason or even next year.

      1. Jim Crane will not bring Ed Wade back as GM–told him get the salary base down to $65M, and he will give him a good reference I assume.

  129. Brown would replace Singleton in the currect package. Cosart and DBrown with Brown possibly moving to a 3rd team. It’s not going to be easy bringing in a 3rd team at this stage though so perhaps the talk fizzles. If we’re looking at 2011 alone though, no doubt that Pence is an upgrade, and a right-handed one, over Brown right now. I still don’t see Pence as a fit though. Not for what we would have to give up in return

    1. and if you trade brown you have another hole to fill next year in the outfield because ibanez is gone.

  130. it says houston wants pitching. i guess they’d use brown to get pitching prospects from a third team?

  131. Can you blame Ed Wade for wanting more from the Phils than Cosart, Singleton, and Brown considering how many gift wrapped presents he has given the Phils in recent years – Lidge and Oswalt.

    1. To be fair in retrospect they haven’t been terrible deals for the Astros (the Berkman deal was indefensible). For Lidge they got a starting CF who has been drawing interest for many teams. If they weren’t idiots they would have Villar and Gose to show for Oswalt and Happ will be better, not as good as he was in Philly but he is still a decent 4 or 5 who is cost controlled.

      1. Fair enough but I think Happ is a dud whether or not they control him for the next couple of years.

    2. Ed Wade will be back in the Philadelphis front office again next year in some capacity.
      Ed Montgomery, RAJ and Ed Giles like him.

  132. I’m kinda tired of getting this feeling every trade deadline. If the past couple years are any indication, there’s no way that Ruben doesn’t get his man. It seems that he’ll do anything to get the player he wants. Anything.

    1. As Pat Gillick said on Wednesday—if he and Ruben were in the King of Prussia mall, Pat will shop all the stores for the best bargains, but if Ruben sees something in Norstrom that he wants–he gets it.

    2. Wasn’t “his man” two seasons ago Halladay? Didn’t Amaro balk at his price and trade for Lee instead?

        1. Entirely irrelevant. The point is that Amaro didn’t overpay at the deadline and looked for a different option.

          1. I didn’t say he’d overpay, but he’ll do whatever it takes to get his man. It might be in the offseason but I don’t think he’s gonna let this Pence thing go.

    3. Yeah, but he hasn’t dramatically overpaid in prospects in any of those trades (maybe for Lidge, in retrospect, but I don’t think anyone saw Bourn becoming that good of a hitter and Lidge worked out okay the first year anyway). Pence is clearly less of an impact player than Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt, especially since a good starter’s influence is magnified when rotations get shorter in the playoffs. It doesn’t make any sense that he would give more for Pence than he did for any of them. I’m hoping this is writers chasing ghosts of rumors and tripping over themselves to get the story out first. Hoping.

      1. I’m hoping as well. I’m not necessarily saying that he’ll overpay for Pence, or that he has in the past, but he clearly has no reservations about trading good prospects. If he wants Pence as badly as it seems based on reports, I think he’s a future Phillie (no pun intended). It may not be till the offseason but I think he’s on our opening day roster next year.

  133. Brown, Singleton & Cosart for Pence? No way! What r they gonna do next year when they have 10MM in right and still have to sign a LF, SS and still have to sign C Hamels? And there’s no chance they’ll be able to bring madison back. I’m a huge believer in developing and keeping ur own prospects. It makes ur cash-flow more flexible so u can go get a good LF and be competitive for years to come. I have a bad feeling that in a couple years we are gonna have a team at or over the luxury tax and a bunch of guys past their prime who we won’t be able to win with. Infusing youth right now is so important so the veterans can teach the young players the right way to play the game and the right attitude to bring to the park. I really hope this deal doesn’t get done.

    1. Brown, Singleton and Cosart isn;t on the table. It never was. Brown, if added, would replace Singleton

  134. If he is offering, Brown, Singleton and Cosart, I hope he calls the Dodgers to see if Rihanna and her boyfriend are available….
    Way to high of a price for Pence.

  135. They don’t want brown, according to heyman they want pitching, guess they realize that happ and myers werent the answer,they are back to there previous form in the case of myers.trying to get third team involved i guess they want to move brown for a pitcher,to include in trade. are we nuts on here, why wouldnt want may or swimmer, or colvin, biddle, are we overrated these kids???

    1. Everybody wants “major league ready” prospects if they can get them. I have a feeling we could be overrating Cosart, as he’s having a solid but not spectacular season. And Biddle is still so far away. I think it’s possible that the Astros just want a little more of a sure thing in the form of a pitcher who’s in AA at least.

  136. If they want pitching, here is the package I offer. Cosart, Colvin, Pettibone, and DeFrantus, if they want Hyatt or JC Ramirez or any of the Reading or LHV starters I gladly replace ones of those pitchers for them.

    I know it clears the lower levels of starters but still having May and Biddle means it isn’t too much of weakness going forward and we really don’t need another starter until we tire of Worley or Halladay retires.

    1. I hope not Mike. Worley’s our 4th pitcher if Oswalt’s back flares up again. We lose him, Kendrick becomes our 4th, and who’s our 5th in that scenario? I’m hoping Pence isn’t out guy, at least until we actually get him. πŸ™‚

    1. How about we just send them the entire minor league system? No price is too high for Hunter Pence. Come on now, give me a break!

  137. Food for thought – Hunter Pence career numbers vs. Braves and Giants pitching staffs*
    D. Lowe – 6/14 (.429/.529/.643); 1-HR, 3-BB, 4-K
    T. Hanson – 2/12 (.167/.167/.167); 5-K
    T. Hudson – 2/8 (.250/.250/.250)
    J. Jurrjens – 1/4 (.250/.400/.250); 1-BB
    C. Kimbrel – 1/2; 1-2B, 1-K
    J. Venters – 0/1; 1-BB, 1-K
    T. Lincecum – 3/22 (.136/.182/.356); 1-BB, 8-K
    B. Zito – 3/15 (.200/.294/.267); 1-2B, 3-K
    M. Cain – 3/12 (.250/.308/.750); 1-2B, 1-3B, 1-HR, 1-BB, 1-K
    B. Wilson – 0/1; 1-K
    M. Bumgarner – N/A
    R. Vogelsong – N/A
    Okay. I think we are all agreed that the Phillies are not in danger of missing out on the playoffs so the proposed trade for Pence would only make sense if this made the Phils a better post-season team. Looking at Pence’s numbers versus the two most likely opponents the Phillies would face in this year’s NLCS doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. In the words of the Gambler, “you gotta know when to hold em'”.
    *Baseball Reference.com

    1. Good post Wit. We’re essentially looking for an upgrade over Francisco and Mayberry. We don’t need to sell the Pharm to get a player who’s value is overstated simply because he’s the one who happens to be available.

      1. I’m leery of Pence, but those are some very small sample sizes. It’s fair to say he hasn’t hit Lincecum well. I don’t think you can say that of any of the others. If he were to hit a homer against Tim Hudson the next time he faces him, his career average would be .333 and his career OPS would be .888. He would go from a guy who can’t hit him to a guy who hits him pretty well based on one trip tot he plate.

  138. per Bowden’s s on his radio show…

    Wade wants Singleton, Cosart, and May
    RAJ won’t give up both Cosart and May together and are working to find that 3rd/4th piece in place of May
    If brown was truly on the table..the trade would be done and Pence would be in phily

    1. If this is the correct situation it cause much complaining but I think it is a good deal for the phillies. The price is high but it is the cost of doing business, I like hanging onto May during this though. Would something like JRod and a bullpen piece be enough instead of May?

    2. Hope ur correct dude. I do like May alot and love the fact that RAJ wont budge on both assuming ur correct on that.

    3. i can live with losing singleton, coast and someone other than may.

      btw, manuel sounded less-than supportive of dom brown in interviews today. i wonder if he’s going back to AAA if they get pence.

    4. Isn’t it amazing how all these different media types all have different scoops? One has to think that the Phillies have some very untrustworthy janitorial staff. That sure is one leaky ship!

      At any rate, the one thing they all seem to agree on is the Phillies have offered Cosart and Singleton. The chorus there is consistent enough for even me to allow it may be true. But book it that Pence is not the only return then. I honestly don’t know who else we’d want off that roster, but there’s definitely a Ben Francisco to Pence’s Cliff Lee, if not someone even more valuable.

    5. Called it at 4pm!

      I wonder who the 2 PTBN are…

      My guesses

      Scott Mathieson and Schwimer

  139. My guess is that Dom Brown isnt going anywhere except AAA when we get Pence. Brown, to me, is still scared and needs more time to get used to the Big Leagues. AAA is best for him until September 1st. Just me talking

    1. I don’t think they send him down, he destroys AAA pitching he is just going to have to adjust to major league pitching over time. I think a move would cut into Ibanez’s playing time as they don’t want to relegate Brown to the bench (we saw how well that worked last year). That being said they need to just drill him on outfield routes from now until the playoffs and just ride the hot hand in LF in the playoffs.

    2. If he needs more time to get used to the majors, then why send him to AAA? I heard a good point the other day that since there’s about a 99% chance of making the playoffs anyway, what better time is there to let a prospect get ML experience?

      1. I totally agree with Brown staying in the Bigs but since I believe that Raul will play most nites if we get Pence, I want Brown to get consistent AB’s. I prefer Brown in left and Pence in right but I dont see Charlie doing that. THats why I think Brown goes to AAA and gets every day ab’s and is recalled sept 1

  140. Stark says if this falls through with Pence The Phils mights send Brown to SD for Adams Ludwick +++

    1. Jayson Stark says three-way deal now unlikely, so that could confirm that brown’s off the table.

  141. If Hunter Pence were on the Phils, he’d rank 1st in Avg/doubles, 2nd in RBI and 3rd in 3B/HR/OPS.

    1) Rollins 2) Polanco 3) Utley 4) Howard 5) Pence 6) Victorino 7) Ibanez 8) Chooch

    I have to say it looks good on paper.

  142. Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal
    Sources: #Phillies close to acquiring #Astros’ Pence. Deal expected to be completed tonight. #tradedeadline #MLB

    1. U just beat me to it. Think people are still in awe over Nnamdi Asomugha signing with the Birds.

  143. 1-Victorino 2-Polanco 3-Utley 4-Howard 5-Pence 6-Brown 7-Ruiz 8-Shortstop

    Looks good next year also if Rollins doesnt sign

  144. Rosenthal tweeted that the Phils will acquire Pence. Deal should be completed tonight. Hope Singleton sticks around. Cosart likely on his was out.

      1. I know, right. I’m usually one that gets on people here for overreacting about trading prospects but we just massively overpaid for a complimentary player.

  145. Beat me to it…saw Singleton is out of the game. Well if he and Cosart are gone I hope none of the other Clearwater kids are gone. I’m really on the May bandwagon

  146. We massively overpaid for Pence.

    Cosart AND Singleton is just too much. We’re really gonna miss Singleton in 3-4 years when he’s a star.

  147. Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal
    Source: #Astros will get Singleton, Cosart and 2 players to be named from #Phillies for Pence. PTBN not major prospects #tradedeadline #MLB

  148. I am ok with including Singleton in any deal for Pence, but not Cosart. Beside Brown, which sounds like he is off the table, I would try and hold on to Cosart & May as the only untouchables. Offer up a couple other highly regarded prospects like say Biddle and Pettibone or Rodriguez. A lefty and a rightly plus Singleton. First, it appears Singleton is destined to only play 1B as the OF experiment did not go as planned (so his value at this point is diminished with recent pick Greene down the line). Second, we have Hamels & Lee probably for a few more years (if Cole resigns and after this year they better sign him) so a LH is also not a huge necessity for a few years. Third, Pence is a solid player but no superstar talent so a couple of decent pitching prospects I think should offer fair value.

    1. me too. it could’ve been worse, frankly. fwiw, this is the deal the astros turned down earlier in the week.

  149. if we win the WS this year, then fine. otherwise,I’m gonna be really depressed in 3 years when singleton’s hitting HR’s for Houston. wonder if we’re getting any money in the deal?

  150. If Pence contributes to a World Series win, it is worth it. Period. He does not have to be great, he only needs to be very good. This is what the Phillies are. At this stage of the team all minor leaguers are trade bait to try to keep the major league run going. What is amazing is how often they have been able to pull it off. Three years running. It is a great farm system that keeps refreshing itself. And, moreover, contributed three rookie pitchers this year making major contributions.

  151. I am content with it, I am not happy or excited but I am not devastated. We gave up a lot but I don’t feel like we gave up anyone critical to the future success of the franchise.

    Singleton hurts more than Cosart, I just don’t trust as much as May to stay healthy going forward.

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