23 innings. A loss. Wow. No other words. We can analyze this box score for a week.
I don’t even know where to start. So I’m going to bed.
213 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 23 May 2011”
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Phuture Phillies 
Are you kidding me? A pinch hitter in the 10th inning batted 7 times. Fun to look at but I bet it was horrible for the 330 people to watch.
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Jupiter SS went 0-9. Valle, bless his heart, went 1-10 and caught 23 innings. Am i reading that wrong?
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That is damned cruel to keep a kid behind the plate for 23 innings.
On another note, I was at CBP last night and here’s a report on some recent graduates.
We have two absolute gems in Stutes and Bastardo – with them, Madson and Contreras coming back (notice I didn’t mention Lidge) our bullpen has that 2008 look to it. Aside from Joan Baez and J.C. “don’t call me Ramirez” Romero, it’s a lights out operation.
Stutes sat between 93-94 with his FB and touched 95 and his breaking ball (pretty much only throws a slider, I believe) was extremely effective. The ball positively explodes out of his hands. His upside, I think, is a lot higher than anybody imagined it would be. I don’t know how much stamina he has, but if he could command a couple of other pitches, he might even be an intriguing option as a starter. This guy is a really good pitcher.
Bastardo was similarly effective. He threw a slider that made the most amazing popping sound in Ruiz’s mitt. People were commenting about it all the way up in the HOF level. It just made a remarkably loud sound. Otherwise, he did his normal “sorry you ain’t gonna hit me” Bastardo routine. Phenomenal.
Lastly, Brown looked very good. He had a hit and nearly hit a double on another pitch (ball just went foul). He looked fine in the outfield and was fast on the bases. He is a daunting guy to have to face 7th in the batting order. He and Utley changed the entire look of the team. Add Victorino and it’s like getting a whole new team. Fans should be extremely encouraged.
P.S. Utley looked fine with one minor exception – he looked a little tender picking up a ground ball and flipping it to Howard on one play. My guess is that this play was a bit painful for him – but who knows.
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Romero really isn’t that bad as a middle reliever type, he just doesn’t belong in key situations in the 7th/8th innings anymore. If he is our 5th or 6th reliever, that is pretty good.
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As a LOOGY Romero would still be fine. He’s being misused by Manuel.
Even Baez has been not horrible in terms of ERA – if your #7 reliever has a 4.19 ERA you’re doing okay. His K data is kind of frightening, though, and I could see his ERA ballooning. On balance I think they should release him and eat the contract when Lidge returns if no one else is hurt at the time. Who knows, they might even surprise us and do just that.
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obviously you dont follow this team….stutes was a starter in the minors but wasnt very good because he lacks a good 3rd pitch, 2 pitches means reliever. Utley looked fine on that play,
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Obviously you have nothing better to do than to tell a fellow PP fan “that he obviously doesn’t follow this team”. Of course he does, or he would not be following this fantastic site. So maybe he didn’t know that Stutes was a starter at one point, and may be again, who knows? But the man obviously follows this team!
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if he follows this site, then he should have known that stutes was a starter right?. Lawyered!
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chill out!
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I believe this premise in incorrect. Many of the “stats oriented” persuasion , do not watch any actual games at all, preferring to issue stats based assumptions based on pure stats analysis alone. Like one of their role models Billy Beane once said ” I don’t watch any games because it gets in the way of the data”. There are many well published adherents of these philosophies on here. The understanding of what they say should always be tempered with the knowledge that it is just plain BS.
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I’ve never personally met a “stats” person who claimed to never watch actual baseball games. Never.
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Yes, I DO know that Stutes was previously a starter. Did I say he was never a starter?
Many young pitchers bounce back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation before settling on a final destination. And many of the guys started in the minors, made it to the majors in the bullpen and were switched back. We’re not talking about bums either. Both Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana were starters in the minors, initially excelled in the majors in the bullpen, and then were converted back to starters and became stars.
When you say stupid things like “you obviously don’t follow the team” when I mention that Stutes may have a future as a starter, you show your ignorance not only of what I am talking about but also of baseball history.
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Cheese why do some people NEED to start spitting contest. Mr. Jerry just enjoy baseball PLEASE
3up I thought I saw more than 2 pitches from Stutes anyway. He makes the critical pitch at the critical time.
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huh?
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lol you guys just got trolled 😛
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Its not often one of your relief pitchers gets 10 at-bats. After 23 innings a win would have been great but you have to be impressed with the bullpen. That kind of game can only be good for those involved, you can’t simulate that kind of mental grind. Hopefully they all bounce back quickly. A rainout would be timely, maybe they should all do a raindance.
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Savery pitched 2 shout out innings, maybe we should convert him to a pitcher? 😉
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Nice to have an extra LOOGY in the pen for days like this. Hopefully he keeps pitching a little even if he is a full time hitter.
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1. OF – Domonic Brown (Phillies) – (.125) 1 for 4 with a 2B (1) and a K
2. RHP – Brody Colvin (Clearwater)- (0-1, 4.96) – 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB and 3 K’s
3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.267) –1 for 4 with a K
4. RHP – Jared Cosart (Clearwater) – (4-3, 3.17) – DNP
5. RHP – Trevor May (Clearwater)- (3-2, 4.13) –DNP
6. C – Sebastian Valle (Clearwater) – (.313) – 1 for 10 with 3 K’s
7. LHP – Jesse Biddle (Lakewood) – (2-5, 4.78) – 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB and 5 K’s
8. RHP – Vance Worley (Phillies) – (2-0, 1.13) – DNP
9. OF – Tyson Gillies (Reading) – DNP
10. RHP – Justin De Fratus (Reading) – (2-0, 2.66, 4 SV) – DNP
11. RHP – Julio Rodriquez (Clearwater)- (5-2, 2.44) – DNP
12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.205) 2 for 9 with a BB and a K
13. OF – Domingo Santana (Lakewood) – (.270) 1 for 4 with a BB and 3 K’s
14. RHP – JC Ramirez (Reading) – (5-3, 3.00) – DNP
15. OF – Aaron Altherr (Lakewood) – (.197) – 2 for 4 with a 2B (5) and 2 RBI
16. RHP – Jon Pettibone (Clearwater) – (4-3, 1.98) – DNP
17. C – Cameron Rupp (Lakewood) – (.224) – DNP
18. OF – Jiwan James (Clearwater) – (.247) – 3 for 8 with a 2B (8), 3B (4), 2 BB and 3 K’s
19. 2B – Harold Garcia (Reading) – Out for the season with a torn ACL
20. RHP – Kevin Walter – Season hasn’t started
21. RHP – Colby Shreve (Lakewood) – (2-3, 4.25) – DNP
22. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (Reading) – (0-2, 3.00, 3 SV) – DNP
23. RHP – Michael Schwimer (Lehigh Valley) – (2-0, 1.90, SV) – DNP
24. 1B – Matt Rizzotti (Reading) – (.351) – DNP
25. RHP – Austin Hyatt (Reading) – (5-2, 4.19) – DNP
26. OF – Leandro Castro (Clearwater) – (.265) – 1 for 7 with 2 K’s
27. OF – Miguel Alvarez (Lakewood) –(.273) – 0 for 0 with a run
28. OF – Kelly Dugan – Season hasn’t started
29. RHP – Josh Zeid (Reading) – (2-3, 5.19) – DNP
30. RHP – Percival Garner – Season hasn’t started
Others:
1B – Cody Overbeck (Reading) – (.276) DNP
1B – Darin Ruf (Clearwater) – (.283) – 2 for 9 with a 2B (14) and a BB
3B – Ronnie Belliard (Lehigh Valley) – (.267) – DNP
3B – Geancarlo Mendez (Lakewood) – (.264) 1 for 4 with an RBI
SS – Freddy Galvis (Redding) – (.239) – DNP
OF – Derrick Mitchell (Redding)- (.246) – DNP
OF – Joe Savery (Clearwater) –(.320) – 1 for 10 with 2 K’s
OF – Anthony Hewitt (Lakewood) – (.266) – 3 for 5 with a HR (6) and a K
RHP – Justin Friend (Clearwater) – (0-0, 1.27, 16 SV) – 0.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB and 0 K’s (loss)
RHP – David Buchanan (Lakewood) – (6-2, 2.21) – DNP
RHP – Lisalberto Bonilla (Lakewood) – (0-1, 1.47, 1 SV) –3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB and 4 K’s
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Every single player, besides Ruff (CW) and Manzillo (Jupiter) struck out! Including all PHs, 22 players got ABs and 20 of them had at least 1 strikeout. Also, Jupiter only used 1 PH the entire game
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Did Ruf pitch in college? 2 solid innings for him.
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Hey, has anyone ever thought of making a pitcher out of Savery? Wait….? Colvin pitched well. That’s good to see. Lakewood’s won 6 in a row after losing 5 in a row. Talk about streaky. Hewitt’s looking a little more like a prospect. Bonilla has been someone I’ve been watching since he was in the DSL. He’s being used in long relief and had given up 3 ERs in 18+ innings. He’s also K’ing a man an inning. I like him as a starter but there’s no room at that inn right now.
23 innings and a 2-1 final. At some point, you have to throw in the towel. When does the shootout start? Maybe after 12 innings, you have a HR contest to decide it. How about that? Lakewood may have to recall 5 pitchers from EST to play the next game. It looks like CLW could have won it in the 18th. Castro was thrown out at home and even then Myers was on 3rd with 1 out. Savery hit a pop fly to left but wasn’t deep enough to score the run. Jupiter had a player and the Manager thrown out of the game. They were just tired and that was the easiest way out of the marathon.
The VSL game went 14 innings. The Phils knotted 7 runs in the top of the 14th to ensure the game wouldn’t go past that.
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If he continues as I believe he will stutes looks like a future closer, which is nice, the bullpen right now for the future looks really good. bastardo, madson, stutes. kendrick as long man,for now. who is your candidate to take romero and baez place in future??
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What? Stutes isn’t a closer. He’s a good pitcher, don’t get me wrong, but he tops out as 7th or 8th inning piece.
God help us if we have Stutes closing in a couple years, I’d hope we’d do better.
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I actually like Bastardo as the future closer as long as his stuff is this nasty.
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As do I. Bastardo is basically unhittable when he’s on and barely hittable when he’s not on.
He has future closer written all over him. Stutes has ‘very solid reliever’ written all over him, not closer.
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What is all this Bastardo and Stutes closer talk? Have you watched Mad Dog close games lately? I think we have our future closer already.
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Yeah…if they can bring him back. He already gave us a team friendly deal the last time around and Boras is his agent. Add in his wife’s comments about Philly and other comments about the open market and Rube might not be able to resign him. He’ll be the best reliever on the open market this winter so he’ll cost a ton.
Things in our favor are that he obviously enjoys playing in Philadelphia, he’d be the closer here on a good team and we do have plenty of cash. It just depends on whether Boras demands Mo Rivera type money (which I guarantee he will hint at in the early going) or if he wants reasonable money like what Soriano got to be the Yankees setup man this year ($10-12 million a year).
Still, guys get injured all the time and its nice to have young arms like Bastardo & Stutes step in without missing a beat. Bastardo does have closer stuff.
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Madson’s wife allegedly never made those comments, from what I hear. This would imply that the reporter essentially made them up, but that’s the rumor I heard, and I hope it’s true. Madson is now unhitable it seems.
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The great thing about Stutes, Bastardo, Schwimer, Aumont, and a few other possibilities is that it means we can afford to spend more to resign Madson since we won’t have to sign veteran FA’s to fill setup and middle relief roles in the future – i.e. Romero, Baez, Durbin, Contreras types.
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In this article, Manuel notes that they had Bastardo and Stutes ready to pitch the ninth in place of Madson. It seems that he thinks Stutes could pitch at the end of games.
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dumb
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/122424049.html
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Why?
Its a no risk minor league signing for a club that has been spot starting Michael Martinez’s .431 OPS in CF and giving significant playing time to guys like Mayberry and Francisco and their sub-.700 OPSs. If he can still hit, its not a bad insurance piece to have in AAA.
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He’s saying that he was dumb for leaving out the link. Look at p2 of the article and the manuel quote.
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Oh…that makes much more sense then.
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How can you possibly project what Stutes will be doing in two years. He looks a ton better than Madson did when he first went to the pen, and look at Madson today. I just love all the self proclaimed experts on this site. How about we leave it at this, Stutes looks great right now. His ball explodes on the hitter and his slider is flat out nasty. As long as he commands both pitches he can be an excellent reliever, set-up man, and maybe even someday a closer. What has Lidge thrown all these years, a fastball (often with no command), and an all-time nasty slider, that’s it. Sounds like a lot like what Stutes does, huh? Of course, Stutes has to prove that he can pitch like he is over a MUCH longer period of time than a few months.
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Stutes could be a good pitcher, but he does have that whole inverted W thing working against him in a big way.
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Good Job Clearwater. They probably ran out of food in the stands.
I still can’t understand why an older guy like Savery can’t be a situational pitcher.
I wondered at Stutes only going one inning but I realized it might of been a sign Cholly needs him for bigger things.
Note: Edinson Volquez was traded for whom. lol
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330 fans. And that’s BEFORE they got tired and started leaving. Somehow I doubt food was an issue, lol.
Definitely a long game but not a killer. It passed quickly and was played in less than six hours. Many doubleheaders last that long.
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Baseball might want to consider allowing ties. Games that go on past 13 innings are really difficult to watch. As for who replaces Romero and Baez, I am looking forward to this event. For Baez, we’ve got Micahel Schwimmer. For Romero, who has become the second lefty in our pen behind Bastardo, we have Juan Perez and Mike Zagurski. I’d like to see Perez get a shot, but I’m not sure that Zagurski can be an effective major leaguer.
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The burden this kind of games puts on young arms makes you idea a good one
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Perez throws slop—-no fastball
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Yeah, Perez hasn’t looked sharp of late. If I needed a left arm right now I’d take Z over Perez.
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I must admit, I’m actually rooting for Hewitt now.
I never understunderstood why people bashed him so much on here.
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I am rooting for Hewitt too. I can’t imagine any Phillies fan not rooting for him. I think what you hear is really frustration with the fact that his performance to this point has been pretty much what was predicted by many scouts. He represents the ultimate lottery ticket. If he ever puts it together, his physical tools are impressive, however the chances of that happening in reality have always been unlikely.
But the recent showing is very encouraging and probably his best stretch since he was drafted.
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He was compared to Ron Gant when he signed and that is still valid if you look at Gant’s career.
Hopefully he stays off dirt bikes.
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When Ron Gant was 21 he dropped 26 HRs in High A, with a nearly even up K/BB ratio.
He struggled a bit in AA at 22, but imagine what Hewitt would be doing in AA right now.
He is not like Ron Gant by a long shot. Except for his awesome pecs.
I do think it would be an interesting exercise to find even a single player who had a 10-1 K-BB ratio as a 22 year old in Low A who ever got more than 1000 at bats in a MLB career. I imagine never, but stranger things have happened.
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Probably because he put together 3 of the worst pro seasons ever by a 1st round pick prior to this year. Everyone really really wants him to succeed but it didn’t look like it would ever happen until these first very small glimmers of hope this year.
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See CJ Henry 🙂
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Career OPS
Henry: .649
Hewitt: .624
Right up there though…pretty sad for a 17th overall pick…and even sadder was us trading for him after already seeing his first 2.5 years of absolute futility in the Yankees system.
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Trade for HIM? they didn’t trade for him. They traded to unload the contract and atttitude of Blase Bobby Abreu. also got Jesus Sanchez, Carlos Monasterios , and Matt Smith. The trade was the Yankees assumed all of Abreu’s contract and they received guys the Yankees would part with.
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I’m rooting for him, we’re all rooting from him. I’m not getting excited yet, though: 6/57.
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The bashing was aimed at the selection of Hewitt and not at Hewitt himself. Fans are/were frustrated by the selection of such a project when there might have been other better options at that pick. As noted, he was deemed an extreme crap shoot immediately after the draft and his play backed up that assessment. It was easy to jump on the bandwagon considering the talking heads appeared correct and the questions such as “What were the Phillies thinking” rang out.
I, of course, want Hewitt to succeed and certainly do not blame him as it is not his fault the Phillies selected him in the first round. Only time will tell….
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Especially considering he easily would have fallen in that draft and we could have snagged him with a 3rd or 4th round pick instead. Its very difficult to criticize the 2008 draft strategy though as it was the best team draft maybe ever.
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It’s nice that at least he’s showing enough to remind people why he was drafted: great power and speed on the bases. Let’s hope that he can pull it together and improve his k and bb rate over the next few years.
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I was slightly hopeful by Joe Savery’s AAA lines at the end of last year and his start this year, but May has not been kind to him. He is just 1 for his last 10 with 2ks (just last night) and 4/43 in his last ten games. Any thoughts from readers who have been to games?
It appears Philly.com bulked up its coverage of the Phillies system this year. Here is another in a longer series of articles by the Inquirer, this one focused on Biddle:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110524_Pitching_prospect_Biddle_setting_the_right_pace_at_Lakewood.html
… and tidbits on Overbeck…
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110524_Five_minutes_with______Cody_Overbeck.html
There was an interesting article over the weekend that argued that Overbeck is more valuable than Rizzotti – and this was opined on by Scouts, so it feels somewhat legit.
I found this quote particularly interesting: “I’d like to see him at triple A,” the scout said. “I don’t know what else he has to prove at double A. If they don’t like him and don’t think he can play, get him to triple A so they can showcase and trade him. If he does well at triple A, I think they will have people calling and knocking down their door for him.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/122402894.html#ixzz1NGokMYww
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Who could have predicted that Savery would have a May like this? (Well, a bunch of us, actually).
But let me be positive for a moment. Overbeck is really starting to intrique me. Unlike some people around here, I’m not ready to put him in the major league lineup next year, but (in addition of course to the increased power) he has cut down on his Ks this year, and has actually been a bit unlucky on BIP. Of COURSE he is a better prospect than Rizzotti. Heck, if he was drawing more BB, even I might be mentally plugging him into the major league lineup.
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Yes, objectively, he is a better prospect than Rizzotti, due to the immense power he apparently has combined with the fact that he has at least enough athleticism to be considered for a position other than first base.
I think within the next 30 days, both Overbeck and Rizzotti will be promoted to AAA. I am going to reserve judgment on Overbeck until I see what he does against AAA pitching. Different types of players tend to stall at different levels of competition. There is a group of hitters that I like to think of as AA sluggers – guys who really can’t hit good breaking stuff, but have a ton of power and know how to wait for their pitch (FB or hanging breaking pitch) which, in AA, will almost inevitably be thrown. In AAA, while it is generally not a prospect level, you have a ton of guys who throw almost nothing but breaking pitches. The really good hitters (look at Dom Brown) are not challenged by this pitching, but the guys who can’t handle a decent breaking pitch are toast (hello Mike Costanzo). We need to see if Overbeck can handle that type of pitching. If he can, he is almost certainly going to become some type of major league player at some point, although precisely how good he is going to be and where he will play is very difficult to pinpoint at this juncture.
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I had a Mike Costanzo comp waiting in the wings for after Overbeck was promoted. They profile very similarly.
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I don’t know if this is the appropriate spot but did anyone read David Schoenfield’s article this morning on ESPN? “Five trades that need to be made”… Brown and Cosart for Hunter Pence.
My knee jerk reaction is no way. He makes a semi intelligent argument but I don’t think the Phils can keep paying out big contracts. At some point they need to get cheaper and younger. Especially if they have any plans to sign Hamels long term.
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If the Phillies made that trade, Ed Wade would get even in one fell swoop. IMO, that would be a horrible trade – one we would regret for a generation.
Now, if you are talking about a trade of Pence for some package of Vance Worley, Matt Rizzotti, Mike Schwimer, and Julio Rodriduez, I might have to think about that and, frankly, such a trade might be good for both teams.
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So the Astros would get a #4-5 starter, two bullpen arms and a B level prospect for an AS right fielder under team control for 2.5 more years? That would not be a fair trade at all for the Astros.
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We are in first place. There is no reason to trade anybody for Hunter Pence. The phils will need a top flight shortstop or third baseman next year or the year after and should be saving thier chips.
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I agree with the thought that the Phillies don’t need Pence, althought he would be a nice addition.
I was just arguing against the above-listed package as representing fair value. I mean, if Wade will take it, that would be great. But if I was an Astros fan and that trade was made, I’d be livid.
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your right. Its garbage, even I though I really like JROD.
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phils signed scott podsednik today, dom brown is the reinforcement to their struggling outfield, they aren’t trading dom brown and his contract, which may cost the phils $3mil over the next 3 years for Pence and a situation that may cost them $20 million over the same period.
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Honestly I think that might get it done but I would rather have Carlos Quentin. I think you can get him for a lot less then take your chances on signing him after the season is over.
This Pence stuff is getting a lot of traction I’ll go out on a limb and say he is not a big game player and he like Howard Strikes out way to much.
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I don’t know about that…according to FanGraphs, Pence’s clutch stats are pretty good (certainly better than Francisco).
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I agree…terrible trade. Pence isn’t worth that. I’d rather keep our top prospects.
Hell, Brown’s near term upside (2-3 years) is probably equal to that of Pence’s current value.
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I don’t think Worley can be traded until we see if he is the cornerstone of the rotation after these guys leave. Give it some time please. Look at Stutes he gets out of jams with just the right pitch and last night he was super tough.
If you trade Worley you trade him and the other player you can obtain with the saved money.
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It would be stupid to trade Worley given the question marks in the rotation next year after the Big 3 (Halladay, Hamels, Lee). Who knows if Blanton will even be able to pitch next year or even if he’ll be effective. KK isn’t a legitimate starter either and Oswalt is likely gone. We really need a young cost-controlled 4/5 starter like Worley.
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May and Worley + for Pence, I would do. I wouldn’t consider Cosart in a package for Pence and Brown for Pence is ridiculous.
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Wow … espn.com has an article of “trades that must happen” … have a seat, move away from any sharp objects prior to reading this …
Astros trade OF Hunter Pence to Phillies for OF Domonic Brown and P Jarred Cosart.
Why should the Astros trade their best player? For several reasons: (1) He’s good, but not that good; he does a lot of nice things on a baseball field, but a mediocre OBP prevents him from being a true star. (2) He’s starting to get expensive. He won $6.9 million in arbitration for 2011 and will likely get at least $10 million next season. (3) He’s 28, and while he’s at his peak right now, he may not be at his peak as he turns 30 … aka, by the time the Astros are likely to be good again.
As for the Phillies, they are in win-now mode. Sure, Brown and Cossart are arguably their top prospects, but the jury remains out on how much Brown will contribute this season. They risk giving up a future All-Star, but Pence gives them a much-needed dependable bat for the middle of the lineup. With $24 million of Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge coming off the books after this season, the Phillies can also afford to pick up Pence’s future salary
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Unfortunately, as Ibanez’s and Lidge’s contracts expire, other players (Lee and Howard) will receive significant pay raises; Ryan Madson (~$10M) and Cole Hamels (~$15M) will have to be signed to long-term deals; and many other positions have to be filled (another corner OFer, SS, and situational LHP).
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I suspect that Oswalt’s mutual option will not be picked up, perhaps by either side. Plenty of money coming off the table with Ibanez, Lidge, Rollins, Madson, Baez (Schneider (I think) but as you point out, Madson and Hamels need to be signed. We also need a decision about Rollins.
I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to move Brown. He’s a potential All-Star and we get him on the cheap for a few years. We’re also looking at a low expense bullpen the next few years. Too bad the Indians are playing so well. We’d might have been able to target Sizemore
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Guys are under the impression that the Phillies payroll will go down next year just because Lidge and Ibanez’s salary comes off the books. That is incorrect. Cliff Lee’s salary jumps over 10 million next year. Ruiz’s salary jumps 2 million. Lidge’s buyout is 1.5. Cole Hamels will get at least a 5 million dollar raise. Madson will get a significant raise.
The only realistic way the Phillies payroll goes down significantly is if they don’t pick up Oswalts option
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Many increases take effect next season, no doubt. Oswalt’s option may create a bit of flexibility though and of course, there’s no guarantee that Rollins or Madson are resigned either.
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Even with the raises, the Phillies should have about $50 million to spend on extending Hamels, bringing back Madson and finding a LF & SS.
Its not a ton of money but its enough. Odds are Oswalt wont be back as the team wont want to give him $16 million and if he wants to keep playing, he’ll easily find a 3-4 year deal on the open market. Oswalt is a pretty attractive FA to a lot of teams.
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https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tSSu2Qy8G9pTSsguHAbeu-A&output=html
Right now we have about $113 million committed to 9 players, Hamels has his 4th year of Arbitration (figure on about $12-15 million probably as I expect Rube will lock him up long term), Madson will need to be resigned (figure $8-9 million per year minimum…maybe more). We need a LF and a SS too…along with a backup catcher, maybe another bullpen arm and some bench pieces as Gload is gone.
Valdez and Martinez (ugh) are under team control as are Orr and BenFran…assuming we tender them contracts.
Dom Brown, Vance Worley, Bastardo, Stutes, & Herndon are all under team control and Schwimer will likely have a shot at a bullpen spot if he continues to pitch as he is doing in AAA.
That gives us 9 MLB contracts and 5-6 automatic renewals. Add in the other team control guys I mentioned like BenFran & Valdez & Mayberry Jr, and we dont really have that many spots to fill with the $$ available.
Bringing Jimmy back on a big $$ deal would be a mistake given his continued decline offensively and defensively. If he wants to come back on a 2 year deal with a club option for a 3rd year at reasonable $$ then its smart but if he wants something like 3 years, $30 million, it’ll burn us most likely.
Other players like Overbeck might get a shot at a bench spot or even LF spot but I expect a FA signing of a B tier type guy for that role instead as we’re not in a position to give a prospect a role like that.
As long as payroll is again around $165-170 million and we dont bring Oswalt back, we’ve got plenty of cash even with the built in raises that were mentioned.
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Rollins has to be resigned unless his demands are truly absurd. And 3/30, while higher than I’d like (I’d prefer 2/20 or 3/25), is not absurd.
What are your options at short? There is no one available. It would be Valdez. That’s not acceptable, unless, as I said, Rollins’ demands are truly absurd.
And “continued decline”??!! In context, he is having a signficant rebound year offensively. Defensively I don’t see delcine. Oh, sure, he isn’t the defensive player he was in his mid 20s, but, despite the ironic fact that he started winning gold gloves just when his defense declined somewhat, he hasn’t been at that level for years. But he is still an above average defensive SS (and no, I’m not puttting any signficant weight on 47 games of UZR).
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I don’t know what the other options are at short, but Rollins is pretty much cooked as a hitter. He has slugged .372 in 606 plate appearances since the end of the 2009 season. In the five years from 2004 through 2008 he slugged .468 over 3,618 plate appearances. That’s not a positive trend nor is it a small sample size.
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Greg, that has to be the dumbest thing I’ve read on this site in at least the past week.
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I guess you dont read your own posts then. Giving a guy in a clear decline 3 years at that type of money is a mistake. Sure there aren’t other good options out there on the FA market but paying Jimmy that much through his Age 35 season isn’t a great idea.
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While his slugging has gone down, he is actually taking more walks. In three of the past four seasons his walk rate is up. Could it be that he is consciously cutting down on his swing to get on base more?
I would re-sign Rollins because there are not many good short term options out there. 3/30 is probably the high end of where I would go. 2/20 with a vesting option would be preferable. I’d rather see Rollins at SS than Valdez (who is older than Rollins BTW) or another older merc.
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NEPP – Part of this is the notion of “clear decline.” I disagree. The rest of it is realizing that in the context of the Phillies’ payroll, 3/30 is not a huge contract. Yeah, I balked at Pence at 10 million a year, but that’s partly because I think Rollins would be far more valuable to the Phillies next year. Which would you prefer – Rollins/Francisco, or Valdez/Pence? The former IMO will likely be worth 1 to 2 more wins in 2012.
Of course as a 32 year old, I’m not expecting him to get back to the level of where he was in his mid to late 20s, but I see a guy who reasonably can be expected to put up 3 plus WAR per season over the next 3 years. That’s worth 3/30. Heck, 2 WAR per season would be worth that. This isn’t Howard (25 million per through his age 27 season) or Ibanez (3/30 STARTING in his age 27 season).
Add to that the fact that this team is built to win now. I don’t think that that justifies (say) trading away your top prospects (at this point), but it justifies maybe paying a guy a little more than he is worth – MAYBE – to remain contenders in 2012. Given the alternatives, not resigning Rollins is basically throwing 2 or 3 wins out the window for 2012. No contender can afford to do that – especially a contender already most likely losing a very good starting pitcher (Oswalt).
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Sign Asdrubal Cabrera from Cleveland. He’s only 26, plays great D and has shown some pop this year,
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“Giving a guy in a clear decline 3 years at that type of money is a mistake. ”
Did RAJ foolishly do this with another player? Oh yeah, his name is Raul Ibanez. Per Rollins, I’d give him, at most, 2 years with a team option on a third year at about $8-10M per years. Nothing more.
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I simply disagree. I agree that Rollins is currently still a good defender but he’s no longer elite. His bat is also going in the wrong direction. He’s giving us an OPS+ of 97 this year…something that is fine for a SS. However, looking at his numbers, there has been a steady decline since his MVP season (clearly his career year by any metric). Watching every game, Jimmy isn’t getting to balls he used to get a glove on and he’s diving for balls he used to field cleanly. The Rangers announcers (along with other away announcers) have all mentioned it too…they were shocked at the decline to say the least.
I love Jimmy as a player and I’d love to see him sign a reasonable 2 year with a 3rd year option type contract where he is thought of as a solid glove/7 or 8 hole hitter but not a premier SS/leadoff guy. I dont know that Jimmy would do that to stay here as its a big blow to his pride. He should be a 2 win player for another year or two but when middle infielders decline, they decline rapidly.
All I’m saying is that we should be leery of overpaying him for past performance and maybe if a trade is to be made in the off-season, a SS could be targeted. Or even perhaps sign a stopgap guy like JJ Hardy and wait for more attractive SSs hit the market in 2013 or 2014.
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Greg – more substantively –
(1) Context – offense is down league wide. We don’t know why, but we know it’s not because virtually every major league hitter is “cooked.”
(2) Rollins power is down, but walks are a little above career norms and BA is (roughly) at career norms. Morever, take away the slow start and he is doing even better. His ISO over the past 4 weeks is .155, right around his career norm. Of course he also continues to contribute with his base running (9 for 10 SB, etc.).
(3) Putting 1 and 2 together, he is a tad above average for a NL hitter this season, and a well above average hitting SS.
Obviously it will be interesting to see his season ending numbers (I suspect that his power will continue to inch up, and he will maintain his current OBP), but even his current hitting numbers, far from being a sign of a hitter in decline, place him among the best NL shortstops.
Or maybe you would prefer Valdez (.235/.261/.290)?
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Nobody is saying “start Valdez next year” so why do you keep bringing it up?
There are other options out there that dont include starting a 25th man at a key position. Its a strawman argument.
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NEPP – I think a lot of the disagreemnt is regarding his bat. OBVIOUSLY he isn’t the player he was in MVP year. But the “decline” since then is … much, much less than it appears. Yes, there has been some, but is is exagerated in most people’s minds because of (1) injuries, (2) the artificially high level of his MVP year, (3) the ongoing league wide decline in offense.
An OPS+ of 97 is a FINE total for a SS and of course slightly underestimates his contribution (ignoring base running, and ironically given his past skill breakdown, slightly under valuing his OBP verus his SLG). It also happens to be PRECISELY his career total. It just seems very odd to me to conclude that a player matching his career OPS is in serious decline as a hitter.
Of course see also my rely to Greg.
Is there some downside risk? Sure. But unlike Ibanez and to a lesser extent Howard, we’re not talking about signing a guy into this late 30s. That’s when a player tends to decline rapidly. Ages 32-35 tend to be a more gentle decline. Fangraphs has him currently at 1.2 WAR, which projects out to 4.0 for the season. I’ll take a gentle decline from that.
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Given the options out there, they may well not be able to do better than Valdez, or not much better. I mean, JJ Hardy? Please. You refute your own argument.
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larrym is right about Rollins – he’s having a better year this year than 2009 and 2010 (which were pretty weak years). In fact, his wRC+ (which is like OPS+ but supposedly better) is 102 which means he is better than the average ML hitter. That’s pretty good for a SS. As others have mentioned, it’s due to a better BB rate and (don’t say it!) a (don’t go there!) BABIP closer to his career mean (nooooo, not BABIP!).
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Perhaps “cooked” was a bit strong of a word on my part. I, admittedly, was only looking at one part of his game. I just question the intelligence in just saying we should blindly re-sign him. I have a few doubts.
1) Yes, offense is down league-wide. In the NL, in the five seasons from 2004-2008, the average team scored 4.64 runs per game. From 2009-2011, the average is 4.34 runs per game, or a decrease of 6%. Over that same period, Rollins’ SLG is down over 20%. Shrugging it off by saying offense is down league-wide is a shallow argument at best.
2) Yes, he’s walking more. He is still not getting on base enough to justify being a lead-off hitter. He never has.
3) I don’t think he is a tad above average for a NL hitter. I would rate him as a tad below, but that’s just me. Again, I should not have said cooked. I also don’t think that he will keep up his 2011 pace over the length of a three-year contract. I don’t think he’ll keep it up over the first year of that contract.
I love Jimmy and all that he has done for this team. My point, although made poorly in the first post, was that the team should evaluate every option available and not just rely on Rollins out of a sense of loyalty.
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Well Greg that’s a much more reasonable take though I still disagree for all the reasons stated.
One (small) area of more objective disagreement. Hitting is one area where advanced statistical analysis is on pretty firm ground, and while he is not far above average, I think it’s pretty hard to argue that he is currently below average in the NL, even a tad.
Even if we restrict ourselves to the flawed OPS, which understates his value somewhat, he is an above average NL hitter. Yes, counter intuitive because his OPS+ is only 97, but the average NL OPS+ is 94. (That’s partly because NL and AL players are not evaluated seperately in OPS+, and partly because of what seems to be an inexplicable statistical quirk – the MLB wide OPS+ this year for some odd reason is 97, not 100).
Of course more sophisticated measures of hitting see him as a little above average, especially if base running is included. It also remains true that he is still WELL above average for a SS.
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I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I would not say he is WELL above average as a SS. Just looking at NL shortstops (I am at work and should actually be doing something resembling that), I come up with five that I would clearly rather have over JR (Ramirez, Reyes, Castro, Tulo, Drew) and six that I would clearly rather have JR (Desmond, Theriot, Janish, Betancourt, Tejada, Bartlett). Rollins falls somewhere in the middle with Alex Gonzalez, Ronny Cedeno, Angel Sanchez, and Rafael Furcal/Jamey Carroll.
Is there anybody in that middle group that you would say is worth 3 yrs and $30M?
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Since you asked …
First of all, there’s a difference between the median SS and the average (mean) SS because the bottom guys stink. The average NL SS this season is hitting .256/.313/.365. We can quibble over the term “significant,” but I think that Rollins’ performance is significantly above that average, especially when base running is factored in.
Now, as to your comps, if we were talking about this year (alone) I’d put him further up that list. Projecting forward, his age does matter. But even so:
The only guys I’d put CLEARLY ahead of him would be Reyes and Tulowitzki. Probably also behind Castro because of age profile. Ramirez also I guess even though he is stinking up the joint this year. So not much different than your ranking except for Drew. But I’d put him at or near the top of the next group, Drew, Carroll, Gonzalez. Now it’s true that I wouldn’t necessarily give those guys 3/30 (except for Drew), but keep in mind some of them are older than Rollins, and Rollins is better than most or even all of them. And it’s not like those guys – or guys of their caliber – are available. You look at next year’s FA SS, and you see a couple guys who will get astronomical contracts and a bunch of guys who are clearly inferior to Rollins.
Drew is actually an interesting comp. You can bet on the FA market he would get MUCH more than 3/30. Probably 5/75. And yeah, given his age I guess I’d take him over Rollins, all else being equal. But keep in mind that so far he has had ONE year over 2.5 WAR. Rollins has had nine.
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Again, I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree. However, since this conversation has veered way off of prospects, I think it best we end it now. I have however enjoyed this spirited debate. Gave me something to think about during a slow afternoon in the office.
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I do think they decline Qswalt’s option. I think they need to be very careful as to how they spend that money – keep in mind that losing Oswalt is a meaningful loss of value. I’m not sure spending the money on Pence is a good value, even if the cost in prospects is low.
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By the way, just the idea of including Brown in some trade involving Pence seems entirely counterproductive. I think that, by the middle of next year, Brown could easily be as valuable a player as Pence. Again, the only way I do a trade like that is if I can plug Pence in as the left fielder and have Brown as my right fielder with Victorino. You do that trade, and suddenly, your outfield is pretty decent both offensively and defensively. This makes sense only if the price is reasonable and Brown remains – otherwise, why bother?
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It’s counterproductive only if you believe Brown is really going to rise to Pence’s level or close in a year.
That’s an entirely reasonable chance that he doesn’t. Brown has a ceiling and a floor. His ceiling might be a 4.5 WAR player in RF. Than again, he might not ever be a productive MLB player.
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I think his floor is a little higher than that. I also think less of Pence than some people here. I wouldn’t do it. It could help a little this year and next, but it has the potential to actually hurt over that time period* – and 3+ years out, it’s all downside.
*Even apart from the fact that Brown could be better than Pence next year, the lost salary flexibility could cost them Madson or Rollins.
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I think they need to focus on filling the outfield with players in their system (singleton, Brown, james, Gilles….) while looking to free agency to fill the infield needs that will pop up in the next two years. Heres why: Like Ibanez, Polonco cant play at this high a level forever. Rollins is probably going to want way more money than he deserves. Utley has health issues. These are three positions they have no answer for at any level of thier minor league system.
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I don’t see why Polanco can’t play this way for another 2-3 years. He is a better player (and a lot better hitter) than he was during his first tour with the Phillies and I don’t see any noticeable erosion in any of his baseball skills. He’s just one of those rare guys who barely ages well into his 30s.
To me, the Madson issue is a no brainer. The Phillies know they need to pay their closer a lot of money and they will want Madson to stay and Madson will want to stay. They will dicker over the money for a little bit, but they will get a deal done. Probably 3 years at around 28-32 million with an option year.
Rollins is a hard case. You can go back and forth on the merits of his retention forever and not go anywhere. On the one hand, he is explosive and won an MVP. On the other hand, he seems to be on a downward slope and he often gets injured. On the one hand, he can really hit for power. On the other hand, he doesn’t do it every year. On the one hand, at times, he does not give 100 percent effort. On the other hand, he is probably the team’s best “green light” player and, to my mind, is as fearless and determined a winner as any player out there. You could go on like this forever – it’s a conundrum.
Ultimately, I think they will want him to stay and the real issue will be what he gets. If he asks for more than $11 or 12 million, that’s not going to happen and he will leave. If he stays, it will probably be for a 3 year contract with an option. I could also see him doing something like 4 years and 38 million.
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4 years would be a terrible idea for a 32 year old SS. He’d be 36 by the end of it.
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Even I wouldn’t go 4 years on Rollins.
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Yeah, I’m not saying I’d recommend it, just that I could see the Phillies doing it. They seem to love the idea of paying old ballplayers a lot of money. It’s one of Ruben’s big weaknesses.
I wouldn’t go more than 3 years for him either.
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I would prefer to see Madson back. However, given that Boras is his agent and Madson will likely test the market, I wanted to observe there will be a number of closer candidates out there this winter… I wouldn’t be surprised if the the Phillies go outside the organization for a closer.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/05/the-offseason-closer-market.html
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I would flip those – Dewan’s Fielding Bible has Pence as one of the best RF’s in the game…so why would we put him in RF?
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I would like Pence, but not at that cost. I would give up one of the two top pitching prospects, Francisco and a minor league bat, not named Singleton. Ed Wade probably likes Kyle Kendrick, maybe we can include him to free up a bullpen spot for Schwimer who had been doing well and is also a possible replacement for Baez. The Inquirer makes it sound like Baez helps the other pitchers, so maybe that is why they continue to keep him on the roster.
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If somebody wants Kendrick, I will personally drive Kyle to wherever it is they trade him. That goes for Baez too.
Seriously, I would not rule out Pence just because Ed Wade is, amazingly, still in control at Houston. Why give Ed a grade A prospect when he will take two grade B prospects instead? Ed’s biggest problem is that he has never figured out the talent pyramid in baseball. Stars are worth their weight in gold. Two good players and an okay player do not equal a star – not even if your team is starved for talent. That’s why he thought it was a perfectly good idea to trade Curt Schilling for a bunch of crap and Vicente Padilla (say what you want, but Padilla was a great prospect and had great stuff – his problem was with preparation and approach). So, yeah, I think it’s more than possible that the Phillies could pick up Pence without trading any of their top 5 prospects or Dom Brown, but we’ll see. Certainly, a trade for May and some less prospects would probably be just fine.
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Yes, if Wade will take a pu-pu platter of B prospects, full speed ahead!
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agreed. I would trade Herndon, Worley, Valle, Biddle, and James straight up for Pence. But I cant imagine even Ed Wade is that stupid.
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why not????
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Exactly. What in his past has suggests to anyone that Ed Wade knows what he is doing. Ed must be the most pleasant man in the world because I cannot fathom how he still has a job running a major league team. And, now that he no longer has a pro like Mike Arbuckle running his minor league system we know that even the reputation he gained in Philadelphia for developing young talent was largely based on work conceived and executed by other people.
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As crazy as Wade has been in the past the best we could probably do is Worley, James, May and a piece like De Fratus or Petitbone. We’d have control for 2 more years after this on Pence.
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My view is that I’d be okay seeing either Worley OR May in such a trade. I really don’t think it’s a good idea to trade both – at least not for Hunter Pence. If you’re going to trade that much talent you are probably better off giving more up and getting somebody really outstanding.
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Wade would do that in a heartbeat—as he should
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The only way Baez helps is when the other pitchers look at his era and compare it to theirs. Lol
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Last nights game was very exciting to me as a follower of this website. With Brown and Mayberry in the lineup and both looking good. Stutes and Bastardo pitching well in the game and Utley making the jump from Clearwater to the bigs (just kidding).
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James actually had a decent night at the plate, 3 for 8 with 2 extra base hits and two walks. It’s hard to imagine anyone could when you score 1 run in 23 innings.
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The irony of the Clearwater game was that position players Savery and Ruf were each able to hold Jupiter off for a couple of innings but Friend, the closer, only got one out before giving up the winning run.
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The question is, How many times did Friend get up and start throwing? Since Jupiter was the home team, there were times especially in the last 3 or 4 innings where CLW had all kinds of men on base. If they got him up whenever there was a guy on 2nd, he might have warmed up 4 or 5 times. I don’t know if he did but he could have. Also this game was approaching a triple-header. A guy sitting around that long gets saddle sores.
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Good to see my man Colvin coming back with a strong, build-some-confidence performance, just a few starts off an injury.
Jiwan James has been an interesting guy to follow. He’s still such a work in progress, but it seems like he does something for his team every day. Has a seven-game hitting streak currently.
Valle missed a week of games and then played a week’s worth of games in one night. You know his back is tender today.
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Once Savery went back to first after pitching, I was hoping that he’d come back to pitching after Ruf was finished. I dont think I’ve ever seen anyone pitch, go back into the field, and then pitch some more.
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Teams have done it before by stashing the pitcher in LF and swapping him back and forth. It happened a couple times at the MLB level in the 60s IIRC.
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Another reason not to trade Worley is the Oswalt situation .
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duke was that sarcasm? sure no sure things in that five…but worley looks pretty good so far and valle and biddle look like mlb players
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Is Scott Podsednik a topic for conversation now.
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Sure, why not?
Hopefully he shows he’s healthy and they can bring him up as a 4/5 OF off the bench instead of tossing Michael Martinez in CF. Martinez is absolutely terrible as an OF and we dont need a 3rd SS on the MLB roster regardless of his Rule 5 status. If healthy, Pods is a good defensive LF with good speed off the bench. Not much power at all but he’s always been a decent AVG guy as a hitter.
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LVIP- at 11 pitchers now, with Orr’s return.
CLW- James 3 for 8 with 2b,3b really only guy that did fairly well hitting wise this particular game wise. He can keep playing regular , all things remaining equal, until the season concludes, improve on that .247 average, and move on up to RDG next season, given maturation and stepping up.
LKW- Duran, SS, turned ankle. Replaced by Perdomo who had some hits and a couple of steals.
Hewitt 3 for 5, 6th HR, 13th and 14th steals. Doesn’t seem to be striking out as much. Pitchers yesterday Pirate’s Taillon and Waldron- guys with good breaking balls. Don’t believe old saws- using recycled material from things they have read on here over years. No setbacks or reversions and if present trends continue, could supplant James, Rupp, Castro, Collier, Santana, Alvarez, and the oft-injured Gillies in positional player pecking order. (amazing how many were voted onto top list). Trending up.
VSL-
16 y.o. Wilson Garcia played 1st game at 1B 3 for 7.
16 y.o. Jair Morelos- every inning at SS, now at .400
16 y.o. Alejandro Garcia started every game in RF, yet to get a hit.
Good offense so far for 2B Albertin Chavez and 3B Willians Astudillo.
First victory for Manaure Martinez.
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In fact, us old saws using recycled material are luckily supported by the fact that over the last 10 games he has struck out at a rate very much in line with his career (despite what I’m sure are your normally very reliable anecdotal observations), and given that his k/bb rate is infinity during such period, it is immeasurably worse (literally immeasurable! Isn’t infinity fun!).
And Rupp isn’t an OF.
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Yeah, Rupp’s not an OF, I was including all the rated position players on various ratings on here. At some point a Strikeout is just another out, and a walk is often luck. If HR power can be developed and get into a more high average hitting thing, then just a marginal reduction in strikeouts could be advanced. Just read the boxscores by day and recall some as being lower strikeout days and other days are multiples, maybe just related to a style of pitching that can be adjusted to. The increase in base stealing prowess could alone, in fact, lead to some MLB appearances at some point, and he is younger than some think, so still say trending up.
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Pence would be a perfect fit for the Phils but giving up Dom Brown for him is ridiculous. A package around Singleton or Cosart makes much more sense and I’m sure they’d want Worley as he is clearly our best “major league ready” prospect which Ed Wade always likes to get (Happ, Bourn). A trade of Hunter Pence for a package of Singleton, Worley, and 2 other mid level prospects ( someone like Rizzotti, Altherr, Gillies, De Fratus, James, etc.)
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Phils end up trading one of either Singleton/Cosart/Colvin, Vance Worley, and 2 other prospects for Pence. I think this would be a good deal for both teams. If Ruben can pull off a deal while only trading one of Singleton, Cosart, or Colvin the deal would be a success. Trading Dom Brown in this would be a huge mistake.
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Maybe it’s me (and I may be completely wrong), but I’m just not that high on Hunter Pence. A good player? Yes, but I feel like he’s too much like a lot of players already on this team (relatively high K% and low BB%). This team needs more high OBP players (i.e. Chase Utley-types) to mitigate the impact of inconsistent hitting. I realize the right-handed bat, youth, and power are enticing, but I think in this situation, Pence might not be the best fit, especially if we have to give up both Brown and Cosart. Moreover, Pence has just one year left in arbitration (after this season), meaning, in terms of baseball and contract age, he’s really not that young.
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If we all agree with keeping Oswalt next year at $16M is very unlikely, I think we should have some reservations about simply trading Vance Worley in these quick fix deals. Cosart, Colvin, Biddle, May, etc. are at least 2-3 years away from contributing significantly at the MLB level, meaning Worley is likely our only 4th-5th starter option (well, aside from Kyle Kendrick, whom I believe is a AAA level pitcher, and Joe Blanton, who is currently injured and not tradable).
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You know, having watched Oswalt now for about 2/3 of a year, and looking at his WAR numbers (he’s typically between 4-6 – last year is was 5.1 according to baseball reference and 4.7 according to Fangraphs), I have to tell you that I think, in the abstract, he is worth that money, although I do think it creates other problems with salary.
I see the Phillies trying to be creative with him – asking him to, perhaps, agree to something like 2 years and $27-30 million. Basically, I think they’ll for some type of home town discount. If he balks, they will try to exercise the option – I have no clue whether he would take the option or not . . . I am guessing not.
Question – if we exercise the option and he declines it, can we offer him salary arbitration and somehow try to get a pick out of his departure?
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He’s had a cranky back a few times this year. You have to factor that in too.
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Yeah, he’s got a little of this and a little of that and he’s lost a little velocity. All of that is true. But what I did not know when they got him is just how far he had evolved as a pitcher. He can pitch very effectively when his FB is around 90 or 91 because he has several pitches and all move and are well placed. When he’s pitching between 92-94 – well, he’s a true ace.
All I’m saying is this. We shouldn’t be casting Roy Oswalt aside so quickly. He’s an extremely valuable player and, if the goal is to compete for championships now and you can control him for another year at a reasonable cost, well, personally, I think they’d be foolish not to keep him if they can.
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I hate to be a pessimist, but the Oswalt situation is one reason I am not terribly optimistic about next year. Yes, losing him could easily cost a crucial 3 to 4 wins. But the lack of salary flexibility if they pick up the option (or even if they renegotiate along the lines you suggest) is also troubling.
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Interesting debate but if you simply prioritized your needs then Oswalt will be the odd man out. Halladay Lee and Hamels is a formidable rotation no matter who you throw in 4/5.
Lidge’s departure is certain which means you will allocate funds towards Madsen. And finally no more Ibanez means you will be in the hunt for an OF bat….
And we have not even begun the discussion for SS…
That’s not to say Roy isn’t worth $16.5 million he definitely is but it poses itself as a luxury you can’t afford. But next year is next year you have to bolster to win the WS this year.
And no matter how good certain guys looked last night you need one more legit bat in the OF and it isn’t Pence.
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My own thoughts are similar. As above, I assume/hope that Rollins will be the SS. But here is the problem: while there is some salary uncertainty, that seems to leave about 10 million for an OF. That isn’t going to buy you a big upgrade over Francisco.
So where does that leave us? This year’s team minus Oswalt, everyone a year older (a bad thing in most cases), with maybe a small upgrade in RF. That’s a contender, but no sure thing for the playoffs.
But I can’t really see a better strategy, unless the payroll takes another big leap forward and they can make an inpact FA signing.
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Ummm…you DO know that, as of the games of 5/24, Pence has a .302/.346/.475/.821 line (with an OPS+ of 130)…and that he is tied for 1st in the NL in RBI, 2nd in doubles and 4th in total bases…
And the reason why Pence (in addition to being a fine defensive RF) would not be an offensive upgrade at corner OF for the Phillies is…what?
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I know that this site favors prospects, but there is a decided lack of appreciation for Oswalt on this site. Since coming to Philly, he is 10-3 with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP under 1. In addition, he does his best work late in the season. Based on his performance so far, he is easily worth the $16 million next year! This option is not a three year contract so there is no reason to project major decline. He could get injured, but so could anyone. The Phillies will have payroll issues next year, but you can never have enough pitching and giving up Oswalt would be a rash decision. Of course, he may decide to retire, but that would be a different story.
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Its a mutual option so he could very well opt out and get a multi-year deal somewhere else. Its not a decision the Phillies get to make without his input.
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Giving up Singleton for Pence would be ridiculously stupid…tossing in Worley and Cosart would make it even dumber.
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If they traded Brown OR Singleton straight up for Pence I’d be so mad that I’d probably stop watching the games for a few weeks.
Hopefully, they will not be so stupid.
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As would I.
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Pence is an above average but not great corner outfielder who is making $7m this year and will get into the $10m/yr range next year. He’s making less than he would on the open market but not by an enormous amount – he’s certainly no Werth or Crawford. Giving up a top 100 prospect+ seems awfully stupid to me.
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We also would not be paying him Werth/Crawford money. My guess is he would get something in the $25-26m range for the next 2.5 seasons, which is NOWHERE NEAR Werth/Crawford money.
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I see Herndon is supposedly being sent down in exchange for Contreras.
Given that Lidge may be available in the next few weeks, and I’m assuming they won’t release Baez, and they want to keep Stutes and Bastardo… Does anyone know if Kyle Kendrick has any options left?
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Yes, he has an option left, but he still rakes in his around $2.2 million anyway.
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Joe Blanton has to come back healthy and be pitching effectively by the trade deadline so he can be traded. Even if it’s just a salary dump you have to unload that contract in order to retain more valued pieces or acquire any at the deadline.
I’m rooting for the health of Joe’s elbow.
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I think, more likely than not, they are going to have to take a direct hit on Joe and all of his salary, at least for this year. At this point, the best I think we can do is get him through the year and try to trade him next winter.
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As for a trade, here is a list of players I see as expendable: Romero, Lidge, Blanton, Fransisco, Baez, Mathieson, Zagurski, Rizzotti, Savery. I don’t want Ruben to break up the farm system again for hitters like Ludwick and Pence. With hitters, a change in environement and new pressure could cause them to struggle. Look at Jayson Werth and Dan Uggla and Carl Crawford. I don’t think Ludwick and Pence are very good either. But if we can get them for the guys I listed, go ahead.
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But the point is you have to give something to get something. Just who do you think you would get for “Romero, Lidge, Blanton, Fransisco, Baez, Mathieson, Zagurski, Rizzotti, Savery”? To say these are the “expendable” players is to just state the obvious. As for whether some combination of the players you named could get Ludwick or Pence is a non-starter.
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Since Pete Orr got sent down, Niuman Romero got sent to Reading and Fidel Hernandez got sent to Clearwater. I don’t really like that move. Fidel Hernandez was batting over .300 in reading and is already 25. I probably would have just released Paco Figueroa and kept Hernandez in Reading.
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How come it seems like nobody wants to trade for Pence? He is a lot better than all of our outfielders except maybe Victorino. I does this sound for Pence? Vance Worley, Trevor May, and Jiwan James. I would definitely trade those three for Pence.
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The reasons have been rehashed time and time again on this site and can be summed up as “he isn’t that big an upgrade, and he will likely be overpaid next year.” It’s almost pointless speculation anyway because IMO the ownership situation in Houston, combined with Pence’s popularity there, will make any kind of reasonable trade impossible.
Your proposal is more reasonable than some from the Phillies’ perspective – and thus likely not nearly enough from the Astros’ perspective – but even so I’d really hesitate to trade Worley at this point, again for reasons which have been rehashed by others throughout this thread & in others.
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Excuse me but pence is a better outfielder than ibanez, better player at this point in there careers, better than all our outfielder except vic. and thats close. gettting him to replace ibanez wouldnt be a bad thing. for ten million a year.
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Mike,
Well I can think of a ton of players that would be upgrades if they were free. I suppose if the Astro’s just gave him to the Phillies I would take him, despite the decreased payroll flexibility*, but I don’t consider that likely to happen.
The question is whether the rather slight upgrade (and IMO the relevant comparison is Francsico, who (a) is at this stage better than Ibanez, and (b) is under team control next year) is worth what certainly would be a high price in prospects. And most knowledgeable commenters on this web site answer THAT question firmly in the negative.
*There are plenty of payroll variables here, but MOST LIKELY that 10 million means losing one of: Rollins, Madson, or Oswalt next year, without having money left for a decent replacement. As you can see, many people are reluctantly resigned to losing Oswalt anyway, so that isn’t a deal breaker, but it is a consideration.
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I’m just not feeling the man-love for Francisco. He’s hitting .220, he is a below-average RF, and – other than rinning into a fastball once in a while, what – exactly – does he do that a) gives you a chubby and b) gets him anywhere near what Pence has done in his career?
I agree that some of the deals thrown out there (like David Schoenfeld’s Brown/Cosart) are in loopy land, but if we take out Brown Singleton, Cosart and either Colvin or May, you don’t think a deal can be put together that lands Pence?
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Is Pence even available?
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Probably not – at least not at anything that could be considered a fair price. So it’s kind of pointless to speculate.
To me, Beltran is a MUCH more interesting name, though for salary reasons probably as unlikely as Pence. But if we’re going to dream about an unlikely trade … he would be better than Pence this year, cheaper in prospects, and who knows, maybe they could sign him for a reasonable deal past this year.
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Granted, he would accelerate the already concerning age problem. But please tell me who the Phillies can get who would significantly upgrade the outfield, isn’t over 30, and would be available? Yeah, I know some people think the answer to that question is Pence. I don’t.
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I can’t for the life of me see them taking on Beltan unless he gets a major attitude readjustment.
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First I want to say that I am a big fan of this site and am guilty as are many of getting attached to prospects…however, the Phils are built to win now…hearing that we cant trade Worley because he may be the cornerstone of the rotation or because of the Oswalt situation are in my opinion way off base….just a few months ago Worley was considered the next coming of Andrew Carpenter on this site…no hes better than JA Happ, Kyle Drabek, Carrasco and Knapp…maybe he is and for the record Im a big fan of the WOHAWK…but if he or Cosart or Singleton is needed to get us a piece that could help us win another World Series…then you do it…sure brown and cosart is steep i would even consider it….sure I would try a package of Kendrick, cosart ( from houston or suburb i believe), defratus type, mathieson (wade guy) and a james type for pence and bill hall ( then we could ship martinez out)…Cosart, Worley and such may turn into stars in the next generation but we are still in this generation…Lee is here for 5, Halladay 2 more and i believe an option, hamels i firmly believe will be resigned long term and with regard to the Oswalt situation…I think i heard Jason Stark say that he only had one loss in like his first 20 starts and that was his first game…so i think there is a very good chance he will be back…i dont want ruben to mortgage the farm because he can keep this thing going for a long time but you should always try to win first!
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Honestly, there are only a handful of Phillies prospects that I would hesitate to send to Houston for Pence, and I am not even a big Pence fan. Brown or Cosart, I would not consider. Singleton or Valle, I would be hesitant, and certainly wouldn’t include much, if anything else. Anybody else, they can have. Fransisco has no business being a starter on any good team. Ibanez is close to the end and anyone that can’t see that Pence would be an upgrade to either one of them is just being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative.
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Straw man argument. No one is saying he wouldn’t be an upgrade. He wouldn’t be a big upgrade. Those of us who have taken that position have supported it with analysis – statistical and otherwise. Not a big enough upgrade to warrant losing good prospects, and decreasing payroll flexibility next year.
This isn’t about how good Ibanez or Francisco are.* It’s about the fact that Pence is one of those guys who is overvalued – probably because of his rookie year which he never equaled. He doesn’t walk, his BA is okay but not spectacular, he has some mid range power, reports on fielding are mixed but the best evidence is that he is average only … as a corner OF he’s … decent. Yes, better than Francisco. Not by much. A bigger upgrade over Ibanez, but with Brown up now they shouldn’t be playing Ibanez anyway.
But it’s a moot point. He isn’t being traded unless it is for an absurd package that would have to include one and probably 2 of the names you list as untouchable or nearly so. And if they did trade him for Brown or Singleton, it would likely end up being the 2nd worst trade in Phillies’ history.
*Though Francisco, while not ideally cast as a regular, remains undervalued by many people here, who think that a slump and some bad BIP luck somehow make him a horrible player despite decent (thought not spectacular) K, BB and power numbers.
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I think most of your arguments in opposition to trading for Pence, are sensible. I differ in the level of upgrade over Fransisco. Pence isn’t a great player. He is merely a good player. Fransisco isn’t good. You look at Fransisco’s WAR, and project him as maintaining that level over the coarse of a full season, thereby coming close to Pence’s avg WAR. I don’t see it that way. Fransisco is a 4th OF that will be exposed the more pitchers see him, his BABIP not withstanding (BABIP suffers because he is a flyball hitter). He is a avg-bad defender, with avg-bad speed, who can not hit a breaking ball. To top it all off, he has close to a reverse split, so you can’t even platoon him.
Pence may not be worth extending after arbitration, but he would help this lineup now, MUCH more than Ben.
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Another point in which I believe I differ with some, is the expected “upside” of some of the prospects. Outside of Brown, Cosart, Singleton and Valle I don’t see prospects that I would expect to come back to bite that hard, for a 1.5 year rental of Pence (or any other good under 30 OF).
May, Worley, DeFratus, James, Pettibone and the like are replaceable pieces.
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Where we differ on that is that I don’t think you can avoid trading one or even 2 of the top guys. For the right package, including some of the other guys you mention (though not Worley because I think we’ll need him in the short run) even I would support a trade. I just think the cost will be prohibitive.
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I believe Pence is a super 2, so you’d have Pence for 2.5 more years.
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Pence will be a FA after the 2013 season so yes, he would be under team control for 2+ seasons.
Just keep in mind that he won his arbitration case this year and is getting 6.9M. Most likely those next 2 arbitration years will probably be for $12m-$15M per season.
At that price, one of FAs the Phillies have (Rollins, Madson, etc.) will not be back (unless the flip Pence to another team after the season) and you will be trading away 2 top-5 (top-10 max) prospects as well.
Is Pence that much of an upgrade?
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This.
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3up3kkk:
Yes. Pence IS that much of an upgrade.
He can be the bridge to Singleton. He can play CF in 2013 if you don’t re-sign Victorino and nobody else is ready in the minors to play there. Assuming $10m in 2012 and $12m in 2013, you are playing the guy $25-26m for 2.5 seasons, which is still a BIG discount from Werth/Crawford money.
As long as the deal does not include Brown, Singleton, Cosart and Colvin, I am trying like mad to fleece Wade again.
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(1) I love the fact that people keep saying stuff like “As long as the deal does not include Brown, Singleton, Cosart and Colvin,” and then acting like they are disagreeing with the skeptics. The chance of Pence being dealt without including one and more likely 2 of those names is essentially zero. I don’t think that anyone denies that getting Pence for a couple of grade C prospects would be a good thing. It isn’t happening. This is the MAIN area of disagreement. The typical (for fans ont his site) bizarre fantasy that you can get something for (almost) nothing. That generally is not true even dealing with Ed Wade, and is especially unlikely given the current ownership situation, and the fact that (unlike Oswalt for example) THERE IS NO PARTICULAR PRESSURE ON WADE TO TRADE PENCE. In fact, the opposite is the case. He’s popular in Houston, he is perceived as their best player, he seems to be happy there, and, despite what I have said about salary, it is true he isn’t THAT expensive over the next couple years. He isn’t going anywhere unless the Astros get at least 2 grade a prospects and a couple grade B/C prospects.
(2) Secondarily – the above is the MAIN issue -I love how we keep seeing people assert that he is a big upgrade with no analysis. In fairness, there is SOME analysis here but not much. The CF thing is problematic on a couple of grounds. Pence hasn’t played CF since 2007 and there is no particular reason to think he could successfully do so in 2013. More to the point, it’s a pretty speculative advantage given the fact that Victorino may well be resigned. Even worse is the insane comp to Crawford and Werth – they are FAR better than Pence (and Werth at least is overpaid even considering his much better ability. Of course this year Werth ISN’T better this year, but he is being paid on the assumption that he would be. If Werth’s skills have declined, that just mean his contract is even worse, it doesn’t somehow make Pence a bargain). Why is that comparison even relevant? No analysis at all on the central and oft ignored point: Pence is an overrated mediocre corner outfielder. Mediocre has value & would be an upgrade, but not a BIG one.
Repeat after me: Pence is about one win a year better than Francisco. That win might well be worth the added salary, but it isn’t worth the extra salary PLUS a couple of top prospects, the likely price.
It’s incredibly annoying that EVERY DAY I have to read another ignorant opinion about Pence. If you’re going to suggest unequal and unrealistic trades, at least dream large, rather than hope for acquiring a mediocre corner outfielder on the cheap. And I’m going to keep responding to every ignorant comment until the pro Pence camp stops defacing the site.
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larrym:
I don’t post here much, but I am quickly learning who the know-it-all is on this forum.
You can keep screaming that Pence is a mediocre/overrated player…but that doesn’t make your opinion any more valid than anybody else’s opinion. And I will take the opinion of John Dewan and the Fielding Bible about Pence’s defensive abilities over yours ANY day.
Arguments about what we have to give up for him, or arguments about whether he is worth the money we would have to pay him are certainly fine – and I can understand taking an opposite point of view. But I think that if you went to all 30 GM’s (or to some of the best scouts), and pitched Pence as a mediocre/overrated corner OF who is barely better than Ben Francisco, I think you would be laughed out of their office.
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It’s not my opinion, my friend, it’s about a VARIETY of analytical sources as opposed to just one. And as I said elsewhere, if you think Dewan is infallible, then you must agree that Francisco is ALSO a good fielder.
But forest for the trees: no one ever said that Pence was a lousy fielder. Pence is, depending upon whether you just go with Dewan or use a variety of sources, and even placing no extra weight on 2011, where Francisco rates BETTER than Pence, 2 to 5 runs better than Francisco defensively per 162 games. 2 to 4 runs is … something … but not much.
You haven’t said a word about Pence’s mediocre hitting.
You can cry all you want about “know it all,” I back every opinion with data.
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And just for your information, a hypothetical appeal to authority (your hypoothetical GMs) is doubly fallacious. If you want to argue that Pence is some kind of superstar, ARGUE it, with evidence. All you have done in that realm so far is refer to ONE source regarding his fielding. And I’ve responded to that.
As for “barely better than Ben Francisco,” I’ve said time after time that he is about one win per year better – which is significant, more than “barely” better. But NOT ENOUGH BETTER to justify trading away a couple top prospects. And the response, from you and others, is a sort of amused incredulity lacking any substance, apart from barely relevant* quibbling about defense. Hint: that doesn’t constitute an argument, let alone a good argument.
Of course a LOT of the debate is over Francisco rather than Pence; Francisco, while himself not a star by any means, is underrated, especially by fans on this site. But I suppose that I can’t blame you too much for THAT; the Phillies share your error, inexplicably starting Ibanez (ugh) over Francisco.
*In the sense that the BEST argument that you can make, ignoring contrary evidence, is that Pence is about 5 runs per year better defensively than Francisco.
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3up3kkk:
$15m in arbitration? Are you crazy?
Why would ANY arbitrator give a mediocre/overrated corner OF who is barely better than Ben Francisco that kind of scratch?
😉
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Because Arbitration is a screwed up system which bears much less relation to market value than it should? Because market values are themselves screwed Because in the modern baseball world even mediocre corner outfielders get 10 million plus contracts.
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LarryM:
Go to the bottom of Pence’s Baseball Reference Page where they show where the guy shows up in various offensive and defensive catagories…for 2011, the guy is ALL OVER that page..and not in just the easy, high-profile stuff (3rd in hits, 4th in toal bases, 2nd in doubles, etc…). He’s in the top 10 in stuff like RE24, WPA, REW…as well as the top 3 in range factor (both for 2011 as well as among all active NL RF’s).
The only place where Francisco shows up is hit-by-pitch and caught stealing.
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So, we’ll all look forward to Francisco’s $10m arb award for 2012…right?
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Okay, I get it – you had me for a second – but I see now you are a PARODY of the ignorant fan, rather than an actual one. Haha, had me going. So I’m sure you must realize how lame you response is. But for those following at home:
(1) Overall – Pence’s leader board performance is actually quite … mediocre … or even worse … for a 5 year regular. More detail below. Francisco … yes, isn’t as good. We’ve established that. And hasn’t been a regular. Since so many of the relevant stats are counting stats, that is a significant factor also.
(2) 2011. Yeah, he’s having a good 2011. A little over 1/4 of the way through the season. Yawn. That proves – what, exactly? And in most cases he’s on the leader board for counting stats, not % stats. And if you don’t get why that is significant … I’m not sure why I am even bothering.
More specifically:
(3) Hits? Third for one (partial) year. Yeah. He’s also third in AB … hmm, might be related. And, oh, yeah, he doesn’t walk. Yawn. .302 BA. Nice. Still not top 10.
(4) Total bases and doubles – more significant. Still, partly a product of lots of AB which in turn is partly a product of not walking. SLG is … not bad at all, but nowhere near top 10.
(5) WPA REW and RE24 – well finally legitimately impressive stats (which are basically 3 ways of looking at the same thing). For 1/4 of one season. Never been in the top 10 before.
(6) Range Factor – seriously? Seriously? Maybe you should actually READ Dewan to learn why that means less than nothing.
Okay … on the OTHER HAND – even setting aside his routine listing near the top of the outs made list:
Career BB rate: 6.8 (versus MBL 8.7)
Career OBP: .336 (versus league .333)
Mediocre. Then you have career slugging, .480, which is more impressive – NO ONE IS SAYING HE ISN’T A GOOD BALL PLAYER – but still … well, certainly above average, but not all star level for a corner OF.
Overall offensively he is about 15% better offensively than the average player. Which is … better than Francisco. We’ve established that. And … about what you would expect from an average corner outfielder. Maybe a little better.
And an average, maybe slightly above average, corner outfielder DOES HAVE VALUE. Yes, more than Francisco. But NOT in the realm of the truly all star level corner outfielders. He’s a good hitter. He’s not in the realm of the true stars – Werth, Crawford, Holliday, and so on. And of course he isn’t getting paid that way, either. True. But … on balance … getting back to where we started … on a 162 game basis, he is maybe a win better than Francisco on a 162 game basis. Significant. But not the game changer some people around here seem to think. Not worth giving up 2 top prospects.
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So I had to go through that whole rant to FINALLY get to the point where you actually say that Pence is a good player…an above-average corner OF…
Sharing a thread with you is WAY too exhausting, bro.
As far as what to give up for the guy, I don’t think we are that far apart…and I am certainly not giving up two A-level prospects for the guy, either. One of our young guns (May?)…a mid-level guy (DeFratus?) and something else. As you say, our package may not get it done…but I hope that we still try.
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I’ve said that all along. A little (not much) above average.
Look, we are probably differing by 5% on Pence’s value and 10% on Francisco’s. But while I’m trying to be conciliatory, I think I need to refer back to my first response to you: my biggest disagreement with you is that I think that the chances of doing the kind of deal you want (B and C prospects only) for Pence is zero. Might as well propose a Rizzotti for Pujols trade. Yes, that would be even more unequal I guess – but both have a zero percent chance of happening.
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And honestly the reasons I seem to have a bit of a bug up my a.. about this – and this isn’t entirely or even mainly you by any means – are:
(1) The fact that people greet the notion that Pence is not a huge upgrade over Francisco as … something so absurd as to not be worth even addressing. I mean, I GET that it is a counterintuitive argument – but people just dismissing it with scorn and no evidence is … annoying. Talk about “know it all.”
(2) The (related) fact that people on this site have convinced themselves that Francisco is garbage. He is somewhat underrated defensively, even if you take his very good analytical defensive numbers this year with a grain of salt, and he has been hitting well aside from some bad BIP luck. If he merely duplicated his career BABIP numbers, he would be sailing along at .264/.367/.414 and no one would be talking about Hunter Pence.
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Sorry Bebop but I’m not on the Pence isn’t much of an upgrade wagon but I understand you’re sarcasm.
My only issue with the Pence trade talk is the 2 points I made:
1) I don’t see the Astros dealing him for anything less than 2 top prospects
2) Paying him $10M per season starting next year means that someone else (probably either Rollins or Madson) won’t be back and the won’t be any available $$$ to sign a decent replacement.
For me, his addition to the lineup for the rest of this season isn’t worth the cost in 2012 and beyond.
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Regarding Francisco – I think your post exemplifies the essentially blind anti-Francisco prejudice that I find so sadly common on this site.
His career BABIP is .288, his babip this year is .223. That difference is luck. Sure, he isn’t a guy who will babip over .300, he’s not a line drive hitter, but he WILL tend to move towards his career mark. His career numbers are .258/.329/.436 – and if his current improved BB and K numbers hold up (much less luck dependent than his current BABIP) he can better the BA and OBP marks.
There is NO reason at all to believe that “will be exposed the more pitchers see him” is true, aside from blind prejudice. There is evidence to the contrary in terms of his prior performance as a regular in the American league.
His fielding is probably a tad below average, though interestingly enough both analytical fielding systems see it as above average this year. Pence isn’t much better int hat regard.
As for “close to a reverse split”, that’s the first time that I’ve heard the LACK of a platoon split pointed out as a negative for a player. The fact that Francisco has little platoon split is a GOOD thing.
Again, Pence is a bit better, no argument. But while I agree that Francisco is a not my first choice for a regular OF on a contender, he is (a) better than people think and (b) better than plenty of regular OFs I could name.
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It also should be pointed out that Francisco’s LD% and FB% are around his career averages so one would expect his BABIP to be around his career average as well. The fact that it is so much lower than his career average in spite of this is what points to “bad luck” as the reason for his struggles.
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According to Dewan’s Fielding Bible (do you respect this publication?), Pence was the 2nd best RF in the NL in 2008, finished 2nd to Ichiro in the award for RF in 2009, and for the period 2008-2010, his 39 “runs saved” tied him for Ichiro for the most in MLB during the period.
I’d say the guy is a decent fielder.
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Gee, then you must also love Francisco’s defense (Dewan has him 7 runs above average so far in 2011). Dewan sees Pence as only 7 runs per 162 games better than Francisco defensively on a career basis (12 runs above average per 162 versus 5 runs above average per 162), and other systems see them as closer. Even that is deceptive since Francisco, as a reserve for much of his career, has many more partial games. On an inning basis it would be closer.
Look, I don’t unreservedly respect any SINGLE source (analytical or otherwise) with regard to fielding – they are all over the map, generally and with regard to Pence in particular. That is the best evaluation I have seen about Pence’s fielding. Fangraphs, which considers several different fielding metrics, including Dewan’s, rates him just a little above average. Total Zone Rating rates him significantly below average over that time period – almost as far below average as Dewan rates him above average. Subjective evaluations of his fielding are all over the map as well. Interestingly (and I agree that not TOO much weight should be placed on this) the 4 systems recorded by Fangraphs in the aggregate see him as significantly worse in 2010 than he had been, so the trend is at least concerning.
The data this year from the 2 sources with available mid season data show him a little above average – not much – and those are the two systems that have tended to be kindest to Pence in years past. The one system that has consistently shown him below average, and the other system which sees him as just a tad above average, don’t publish mid season data.
Now Francisco. The same metrics show him just a tad above average historically, and – interestingly enough – significantly BETTER than Pence so far in 2011.
Over their careers, weighting the various metrics appropriately, the career totals are as follows:
Pence: 19 runs above average
Francisco: 4 runs above average
That’s 15 runs over 5 years. Dewan is a little kinder to Pence but not much – he sees Francisco as a career above average defender (+12 runs) while Pence, as you state, is significantly above average (+46 runs) That’s still not huge over 5 years, and, as I said, it’s just one source.
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I add this not to beat this issue into the ground, but for completeness and because I think it is interesting. Much even to my surprise, even using Dewan’s numbers, on a per 1200 inning basis (roughly a full year), Pence’s defensive edge is even less than I thought. Per 1200 innings:
Pence: 10 defensive runs above average
Francisco: 5.5 defensive runs above average
Other metrics see both players a little worse though overall still above average with a small (about 2 runs per 1200 innings) edge for Pence.
The most surprising takeaway is that Francisco grades out better than expected. Francisco’s numbers are highly influenced by this season, but even before this season he graded out as average.
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In other news Niuman Romero assigned to Reading phillies Fidel Hernandez assigned to Clearwater. Interesting Leonel Bastidas assigned to Clearwater. Matt Payton assigned to XST
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Bastides probably is a fresh arm in Clearwater from XST. He did OK but assume he ends up at Williamsport or GCL with Payton going back to Clearwater tomorrow or whenever he legally can.
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Don’t see it, Bastidas was added as the 12th pitcher (standard) and they’re at 13 position players. Payton was sent out to make room for Fidel Hernandez, and I’d bet alot that he or Troy Hanzawa will play at SS while Cesar Hernandez remains at 2B. If they bring back Payton, they would have to release, by my reckoning, one of Brian Gump or D’Arby Myers. Not at this time I guess.
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I MUST be missing something. Stutes is a rookie , I believe,who has two good pitches which he isnt afraid to throw, to say he isnt a closer material is nuts. He has the mental toughness as you can see when he pitches, challenges hitters,right now, I am not comparing him to madson, madson is farther along and has three good pitches, but last year did anyone say madson was a closer?? most said he didnt have the mentality to close. I am as you know a big stutes fan, after watching him pitch in the minors you could see this kid has really good makeup and good stuff. his future looks bright, dont limit him to a setup man yet. And no one can say he isnt a starter candidate either, minor league numbers arent the only factor ,I keep telling people this. you have to see the kid,numbers in the minors are sometimes hard to judge bye. the fields, lights, competion, fielders, a lot of factors ,umpires, all mostly second rate to major leaguers.you can tell by seeing the players play, watch how they react to errors, or bad calls, watch there pitches, opinons are one thing but statements without seeing the player are crazy in my opinion.
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How many guys can say they got Albert to hit into a DP with two runners on??
Yet alone in their rookie year. Most would wet their pants.
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Don’t see Stutes as a closer. If I compare him to Chad Durbin, Stutes has the better FB, Durbin a much better breaking ball. Both have to have good command to be effective. When they leave one over anywhere hittable, it gets tagged pretty good. When they hit their spots hay are very effective. Sounds like a setup guy to me. When Stues starts throwing 95-98 or develops a deathstalker slider, he might be a closer.
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diamond totally disagree but everyone is entitled to a opinion. durbin to me doesnt have the kind of makeup, stuff that stutes has, stutes has hit 95 in some spots already and his breaking ball is pretty good right now. what i love about him is he challenges the hitter. durbin nibbles.
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I walked, I walked, I repeat, i reached first base on balls, 4 of them, seriously. Cool, that felt good and I knew you guys would be proud. I will be signing autographs later and the bat I used will be on eBay shortly.
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hey chief, haven’t you ever heard the chant “we want a batter not a chicken platter!”?!?
swing the bat sissy.
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No I never heard that. You made it up. Just now.
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Gotta go watch the game. I am exhausted from reading ‘LARRY’S INFERNO”
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omg charlie lost it ben is batting second. I kid you not, second. Ben Francisco. is batting second. in shock
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You were saying?
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My respect for Charlie just went up immensely. That is a GREAT call. Seriously. Francisco has a bunch of BB and HBP, and with reasonable BIP luck (given his career norms and his LD/GB/FO percentages from this year, he would have an OBP of over.360, perfect for the #2 slot. Credit Charlie for seeing beyond the superficial.
And I wrote the above … before the HR.
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You guys do know that I will never let any of you forget your anti-Ben comments if he turns his season around? 🙂
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Cosart another dominating start so far tonight
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Saw he left in the 6th…hoping just a pitch count
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2 straight walks, guess he was getting tired.
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More innings like that for Stutes and Baez might be looking for a new job.
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