Sunday notes column

Hi. I wanted to write a notes column, because I haven’t done one of these in a while, and because I felt like I really had to get back to writing more regularly. The last month or so has been a bit turbulent, and because of that, I haven’t been able to devote as much time to the site as I wished I could Things are beginning to get back to normal, so I hope to be able to put in a better shift, but I wanted to thank Gregg and everyone else who regularly contributes here for picking up the slack as I’ve veered off course. I’m not going to do any fancy formatting for this post, I’m just going to give you some thoughts as we wind down the minor league season.

* I was recently part of a poll that asked for a top 20 prospects list for 2011, the results of which were used for this article by Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle. I had less than a week’s notice to put my list together, and after I submitted it, I realized that I’d forgotten JC Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies. I’m not sure if the latter two will make my top 20/30 list for 2011, but the fact that they both slipped my mind isn’t good. Well that’s not completely true, I think I left Gillies off because he’s really kind of in prospect purgatory at this point, no point in ranking him anywhere, as he has bigger issues to address. JC Ramirez should have been on the list. What this exercise did was confirm my belief that these types of lists are really tough to make, and even tougher when you don’t have time to sit and digest all of the information you have on each player. I probably spent 3-4 weeks last winter refining and re-adjusting my top 30 list that was eventually published in the Phillies annual and on this website. And even then, I felt like I could have made changes, moved guys up and moved guys down. If you’re curious, my top 10 (and remember, this is preliminary) was

Colvin, Cosart, Singleton, May, Valle, Santana, James, Biddle, L Castro, Worley

I think JC Ramirez is possibly #10, but will be somewhere in the 10-15 range for sure.

* Two guys that I ranked in my preliminary top 20 that I find really intriguing are Cesar Hernandez and Miguel Alvarez. Both guys fit the bill of under the radar, bargain shopping abroad, but both are enjoying excellent seasons at Williamsport. The one thing that worries me about Alvarez is the plate discipline/willingness to work a walk, but his 17 doubles in 244 PA is solid, and he just turned 21 a few days ago, so while he’s not young for the NYPL, he isn’t too old, and this is only his 2nd season in the US. His .382 BABIP is a tad high, but again, I like the potential. I might have been too aggressive ranking him at the back end of the top 20, but I think he’s a top 30 guy for sure. I like Hernandez for the opposite reasons I like Alvarez, as he doesn’t have much power, but he’s shown a solid eye at the plate, and he would appear to have very good speed, seen in the 30 for 36 in SB. Hernandez is just 20, and I’m quite comfortable with having him in the Top 20.

* After a slow start, Jesse Biddle has turned it on, and for the season, he has pretty excellent peripherals. 42.1 IP – 39 H – 14 BB – 50 K – .241 OPP BA. Very solid stuff. I’ll be curious to see the scouting reports on him this winter, to see where he has been living velocity wise, but the Phillies have to be pretty happy with what they’ve seen so far. I expect he’ll start 2011 at Lakewood and be on the Colvin plan, where he won’t be restricted early on, and then his innings will be curtailed at the end of the season. A great debut though.

* Aaron Altherr is another guy that I completely whiffed on with my Top 20 list, and I really can’t believe I did. Again, quick lists are bad news. Altherr has actually seen his surface numbers improve with the promotion to Williamsport, where he now sports a .311/.373/.426 line in just 61 AB. Small sample size alert definitely valid here, but I like what I see. His power hasn’t truly emerged yet, but that isn’t uncommon for very raw high school guys, even in their 2nd pro seasons. He figures to be a fixture in the Lakewood OF next year, and could be primed for a big season. Kelly Dugan hasn’t had quite the breakout year, but he’s shown flashes, and I think he gets a partial pass this season due to his injury problems to start the season. I expect he’ll be playing every day in a corner spot next year at Lakewood along with Altherr, and it will be a big year for him in his 3rd pro season.

* It seems the Phillies find one pitcher deep in the draft every year who comes aboard with no fanfare, and then puts up eye popping numbers in the NYPL, and this year it appears to be Eric Pettis, a 35th round pick out of Cal-Irvine. In 54 IP, Pettis has given up only 41 H, to go with 6 BB and 62 K, while not allowing a HR. Righties are hitting just .194 off of him, and he’s obviously overpowering the league. He is 22 now, so he should be dominating, but its nice to see that he is. He’s a prime candidate for a full time bullpen role, and I kind of wish the Phillies would take guys like this and just bump them straight to Reading. See what he has to offer. Speaking of relievers (TMac segue!), Garrett Claypool, another 2010 draftee, has put up excellent numbers in relief this season; 19.2 IP – 16 H – 6 BB – 29 K and a .219 OPP AVG. Again, like Pettis, he should be promoted aggressively, as he is also 22.

* Julio Rodriguez is all the rage these days. I addressed him in my mailbag last week, and I want to re-enforce my point here. His numbers are excellent. He’s young, and as I’ve noted before, I loved the projection he offered, because he has a big frame as well as a deceptive delivery. However, I still have not gotten consistent, definitive reports on his velocity. Some people have said he is still only throwing 87-90, others have said he has thrown 90-93. I don’t have to tell you, but that is a huuuuuuuge gap, and velocity, especially for RHP, is kind of a big deal when thinking about future projection. He throws a big, sweeping curveball, and against bad, rookie ball/Low A hitters, that curveball is toxic. But if he doesn’t have even an average fastball, he’s going to struggle to get guys out at the next level. I talked about it a while back, but for RHP, you really need a fastball that averages no worse than 90 MPH, that’s average, not what you can get to when you unload on one. Movement helps, command is important, but if his fastball is short, its tough for me to get really excited about him in terms of his ultimate upside.

* I wanted to talk about Jon Singleton real quick. I was having a conversation with a friend the other night, and we were talking about Singleton, and he asked me if I saw Keith Law’s comments that maybe Singleton wasn’t that great of a prospect, because his numbers had dropped off after a hot start. I personally find a statement like that kind of ridiculous, to be completely honest. When Singleton was hitting .400, no one thought he was going to keep hitting .400 for the duration of the minor league season. So the inverse of that is also true, isn’t it? He showed he could hit for average, hit for power, and work the count/draw his share of walks when he was going well. So wouldn’t we logically assume that he was going to cool off, go through a cold spell, and eventually level off? Most players do, at every level. But at the core, his peripherals are outstanding;

424 PA – .190 ISO – 56 BB (13.2%) – 68 K (16%)

For an 18 year old in Low A, those numbers are incredibly good. Not only is he showing an excellent eye at the plate, but he’s making contact as well. His 14 HR, again, for an 18 year old, are excellent. While he may not have 40 HR power, or develop that kind of power, its not hard to imagine him as a guy who can average 30-40 doubles per year, with 25 HR and 90 BB. While that’s not Ryan Howard, its still pretty good. I think Singleton is a great illustration of the argument against splits and looking at minor league numbers in small samples. Young players who are very inexperienced need reps in the minors. Its a learning process, from learning to hit breaking balls, to learning how to approach different types of pitchers, to learning how to eat and train properly. High school baseball and pro ball are obviously very very different, and the adjustments aren’t easy. Some guys tend to pick it up faster than others, and some guys never get it. But its important to remember this, and I think that’s why its better to look at numbers in the aggregate, not in blocks of 20, 30, 50 or even 250 PA’s. If you didn’t know that Singleton was scorching in May/June, and you just looked at his overall line, you’d be really impressed, given his age and level of competition.

* Just a few other random thoughts. I like Harold Garcia a lot, and my hope is that the Phillies see if he can play SS. Not play it like Jimmy Rollins, but play it credibly, where if he needed to fill in for a game or two, he could do it. I see Garcia as a really valuable utility guy, capable of playing 2B, 3B, and hopefully SS in a pinch. His speed and solid contact skills are well suited to that role. Phillippe Aumont will be 22 when he reports to spring training next year. While he hasn’t had the best season, or one that most Phillies fans were hoping to see, I think you can see a few positives. From 2008-2009, he threw a total of 107 IP. This year, as of this writing, he’s at 116 IP. Like I mentioned with Singleton, inexperienced guys need reps in the minors. Pitchers need innings. Coming from Canada, he didn’t have the luxury of playing against top talent on a regular basis. He was able to succeed with Seattle by just blowing his fastball by guys. But that approach generally doesn’t work in the long run, you have to possess either excellent command or supreme velocity if you want to get by with just a fastball, and Aumont has neither. The Phillies were smart to send him to the rotation, because it gave him valuable innings, and also gave him more opportunities to work on his secondary pitches. Its clear by the walk totals that he is still having problems. And because of his size, he’s always going to have to work extra hard to keep his mechanics in line. But he’ll pitch all of 2011 at age 22. And it will be only his 4th season in pro ball. The Phillies have time with him. And while 2010 looks like a bust of a season for him, I think ultimately it will have helped him greatly. Maybe he did belong in my Top 20. In fact, I know he belongs there. And I actually feel better about him now than I did when that deal was made, as funny as it sounds.

That’s all.

60 thoughts on “Sunday notes column

  1. How could you forget JC Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies?!? Whatever shall we do with these guys?

    I have an idea…let’s package them up and trade them for Cliff Lee.

    All cynicism aside, I wouldn’t have made that trade in the first place to move Cliff Lee; however, I have to give The Rube some props. He has made quite a few bold moves. Some have been great and some have been horrible. The Cliff Lee deal was so horrible that The Rube was forced to make another move for Oswalt to rectify his first mistake. The Oswalt trade was as good as the Lee trade was bad. Major props to The Rube for atleast being willing to make bold moves.

    With that said, I just can’t wait to see how Singleton turns out. To be doing what he is doing at the age of 18 with that sweet a swing is incredible. I’m extremely excited to see how the young pitchers turn out, too. Colvin, Cosart, May and Biddle give us a lot to look forward to in a few years!

  2. At the risk of repeating myself from another thread, some recent time spent perusing low A leader boards from 2004-2005 has really increased my enthusiasm for Singleton. Putting up thse kind of numbers in low A at his age is just really, really impressive. If he can play the OF … I think he has a better than 50% chance to eventually be a solid regular in the major leagues, with the possibiliility of being a star. And you just can’t say that about many players in low A.

  3. One guy not mentioned is DeFratus.

    When you check his numbers, you see a guy who can strike people out but gives up few walks…and with fewer hits than innings.
    With the call for in-house bullpen guys for ’11, then Mathieson [if he does learn that split-finger] is a candidate.
    With the numbers DeFratus has put up, I’d like to see him sent to the AFL to polish a few things up and have serious consideration to join the big team in spring training.
    Another “sleeper” for the pen sometime in ’11 should be Hyatt who also could attend the AFL.
    Stutes and Schwimmer round out next year’s pen candidates from the organization itself. Great way to go if two or more do well.
    And saves the necessary $$$s for salary control AND to use on the 4 draft picks within the first two rounds to be made in June ’11.
    Pretty good timing.
    Thanks Ruben.

  4. Surprised not a mention was made of Rizz. All he’s done is hit about as well as you could, at Clearwater and Reading. We’ll see what happens in he AFL I guess. Still a believer, even though it’s obvious your listing is not.

  5. Oh, and still on Singleton:

    “While that’s not Ryan Howard, its still pretty good.”

    He also doesn’t strike out nearly as much as Howard. He could end up with a higher batting average for that reason. 30-40 2B, 25 HR, 90 BB, a .300 BA – that’s an upside, not a projection, but if he hits that upside, AND if he can play passable OF – that’s a slightly MORE valuable package than Howard, IMO.

  6. great write-up! wanted to echo art d’s comment regarding de fratus — what do you think his upside is. late inning bullpen arm? also, what about j. zeid and jordan ellis? i realize they are old for where they are, but their peripheral numbers look excellent. great site — look forward to the posts and comments on a daily basis! keep up the great work

  7. I must say that was a very good read. The only negative I have is the article Mike Drago posted. I mean Vance Worley at number 3 and Brody Colvin at number 7? Colvin I think holds an argument against Cosart for the top spot. Especially with reports of his fastball hitting 97 at times. I also saw you had Colvin in first on your list. I would have him 1st and Cosart 2nd based off of their difference in workload. I really think Colvin is in Clearwater next year to start the year. I think Cosart will have to prove he is ready for that jump.

    I mean Colvin is in his first full year of pro ball. He has thrown 129 innings so far. I dont know if he has ever thrown that many innings before, but to me he has the makings of a 200 inning pitcher who has top of the rotation stuff.

    Also something I didnt like from Drago’s article was how he said the Phils lack a Blue Chipper in their farm. Well I would argue we have 3 in Singleton, Cosart, and Colvin. I also think May and Biddle have decent shots at becoming Blue Chip prospects.

    The one thing I do think the Phils lack in their farm is blue chip everyday players. They have one and then a bunch of guys we are hoping can become one like Valle, Dugan, Altherr, Santana, etc. It would be nice if they got compensation for Werth and Durbin (doubt he wouldnt accept though) and used 3 of those early picks on some everyday players who can bring something.

  8. Am I the only one who can see Singleton, in four years when he’s 22, starting at 1B for the Phillies? Howard’s contract would be up in a year or two, and potential trade bait to the AL. Also, his numbers may or may not be in decline by then, and many are worried about his contract. Paying part of Howard’s contract and trading him for more prospects WHILE having a fresh, new 1B Prospect in Singleton is the ideal in the baseball world, isn’t it?

    Assuming Ruben doesn’t foolishly trade Singleton down the line, can anyone else see that happening?

  9. Also I know everyone loves pitching prospects, but I wish we had more high-level talent at fielding positions. While the Phillies don’t need to be so concerned with them currently and odds are they can sign that talent through free-agency instead of using the draft, I think I’d feel safer since I can’t project a future Phillies infield, and I’d love to see a team full of professional hitters that don’t get into such amazingly terrible slumps.

  10. Will Biddle go to instructional league you think, or just shut down for the season, and come back to williamsport to start next year? or is there a chance he goes to lakewood? at his age maybe lakewood is too much to start, just wondering.

  11. Sneaking up on the outside is Cody Overbeck, now hitting .252 with 12 hrs in Reading and 23 if you include Clearwater. Obviously, coming on of late with 3 HRs and a .343 average in his last ten games. Overbeck still strikes out too much, but if he can hit for p9ower it could be acceptable. Not in the top 30 yet, but could be by this time next year.

  12. Jim, I don’t think a prospect who has not played in AA can be considered a “blue chip,” particularly one who has yet to put together back-to-back strong seasons. That’s what was wrong with all the prospects the Phillies got in the Lee deal. I like all of the Lakewood prospects, but temper that with the knowledge that Lakewood’s a long way from Reading, which is itself 2 steps from the majors. Drago got the headline right. He also got Worley right. I really do not understand the lack of respect PP gives him. In AAA at 22 years old, this former third round pick has been promoted aggressively and successfully all the way to The Show. He has a good fastball, good control, good secondary pitches, and has reached 160 innings 2 seasons in a row.

  13. Re Worley, I think that the reason for the relative lack of enthusiasm is the somewhat lowish K rate. That may or may not be fair (I think it is somewhat fair, though I still like him & think he has a shot at being a back of the rotation starter, or even mid rotation if things break right for him), but I think that explains it.

  14. holy crap Biddle is good. seriously, it is very impressive what he is doing. walks are a little high, but a high schooler doing what he is doing at WPT is very, very impressive. i think that he is going to make the same jump up the prospect lists next year that Cosart did this year.

    the other guy that jumps out from the weekend box scores is Julio Rodriguez. Holy cow..he has some out pitch. i also would love to see the scouting report on him. but at 6’4″, with his peripherals, he seems like a legit top prospect. and he just turned 20. very exciting.

  15. Since when is ranking a kid in the top 10 of your prospects list a sign of disrespect? In hindsight, he thinks he may have slotted Ramirez at 10th instead, putting Worley at 11th. Phillies have a lot of talent in their farm – top 11 is pretty darn good for Worley, who is having a great year. However, the four pitchers ahead of Worley also had strong years and/or huge upside.

  16. I know that Julio Rodriquez can hit 93/94 and pitch consistently over 90 with his fastball because I saw him do it in person during three relief innings on August 15th. The question is why doesn’t he do this all the time? However the capability is there so the upside is there. Perhaps, next year, when he is challenged at a higher level, he will be able to generate a consistently high velocity.

  17. Most pitchers are able to dial up an extra 2-3 mph in short relief appearances vs. working as a starter. Since Rodriguez CAN hit 93-94 its quite possiblility some physical maturity along with a good strenth and conditioning program will help him maintain that velocity as a starter.

  18. SIFPA, what is so amazing is that I saw Julio Rodriguez earlier this season (late July), and he was a completely different pitcher. I was one of those who saw him in the 86-88 range, touching 90 only once.

  19. Dr. Steve,

    Ryan Howard signed a big contract extension earlier this year. I believe it was 5 extra years at 100 million dollars…added on to this year and next. He is currently signed through 2016, if I’m remembering correctly.

  20. “Jim, I don’t think a prospect who has not played in AA can be considered a “blue chip,” particularly one who has yet to put together back-to-back strong seasons. ”

    Guess that depends partly on how you define blue chip. Is a top 100 prospect “blue chip?” I’d say yes. Plenty of top 100 prospects haven’t played in AA when they make the top 100 list. The Phillies have 2-4 players who might make top 100 lists. I can see the argument that low A guys generally shouldn’t be considered blue chip prospects – but the Phillies certainly have some high upside guys there, don’t they?

    On Worley, I really want to stress that I’m not knocking him. But ask youself this: what would people around here say if they traded Colvin, Cosart, or Singleton for a pitcher like Worley from another organization? People would (rightly) be screming bloody murder. Worley vs. Ramirez is a closer question (slightly higher upside for Ramirez vs. closer to the major leagues and somewhat less risky for Worley), but that why both should be slotted around 5-6 among Phillies pitching prospects, and 10-12 overall.

  21. I was surprised that no one has commented that James ranked Leandro Castro #9. I’ve been a big supporter of Castro in previous top 30s and talked him up early this year. He’s an RBI machine who has shown the ability to throw base runners out with deadly accuracy. But even I thought 9 was high for him. His .256 BA has made me a little less comfortable with him. He turned 21 in June so he’s young and when he moves to A+, he’ll show what he’s got.

    I checked my top 30 from last year and I had Castro at 14. Aumont, Gillies and Gose will be out of my top 10 but there are others that jumped up so I would put Castro in the early teens.

  22. Dom Brown was rated the Phillies #1 prospect by BA before he reached AA. He was top 50 overall by John Manuel before he reached AA.
    So, BA was incorrect? Brown was not a blue chip prospect because he had not reached Reading?

  23. Since we’re dropping ‘top XX’ lists:
    1 Brody Colvin
    2 Jarred Cosart
    3 Jonathan Singleton
    4 Jesse Biddle
    5 Trevor May
    6 Sebastian Valle
    7 Vance Worley
    8 J.C. Ramirez
    9 Phillippe Aumont- quietly OK at Clearwater and he’s put in a lot of innings.
    10 Domingo Santana
    11 Justin De Fratus
    12 Jiwan James
    13 Harold Garcia
    14 Leandro Castro
    15 Julio Rodriguez- if he really is mid-90’s he should be much higher.
    16 Edgar Garcia
    17 Kelly Dugan
    18 Matthew R. Rizzotti
    19 Michael Schwimer
    20 Austin Hyatt
    21 Colby Shreve
    22 Cesar Hernandez
    23 Kevin Walter
    24 Jesus Sanchez
    25 Aaron Altherr
    26 Miguel Alvarez
    27 Nicholas Hernandez
    28 Jonathan Pettibone
    29 Bryan Morgado
    30 Percy Garner

    We could easily do a top 45-45 prospects. I’d bet good money there will be guys that don’t crack the top 30 who see the Majors. It’s good to be a Phillies minor leauge fan!

  24. Great Article PP! Excellent choices on interesting prospects and insightful discussion. Also not a drag-on discourse which I am way too guilty of.

    I am glad someone mentioned Castro because he is very interesting to me. Seems like a Ben Francisco from the left side. Seems like a top notch 4th OF type with no elite tool to be a starting corner OF.

    Santana seems like he should be lower. He is very young and still has tools but walks are down, strikeouts just as bad, power is okay, and average is bad. Certainly not giving up and he deserves a high ranking on tools/age alone. Not sure on James yet either. He appears to just need some polish and better plate discipline.

    I think there is a big drop-off after Singleton because May seems like a one year younger Aumont. Granted that year is a big deal because if May again falters with control he is going to drop. However, Aumont ‘lost’ some innings by being in the bullpen. I am hoping he refines a second and maybe third pitch through next season. With Mathieson, DeFratus and Schwimer I feel less in a rush to convert him to a closer. Still like Bastardo and Rosenberg also.

    Totally agree on Harold Garcia. I mentioned in another post that I think he’d be a great backup infielder. Though he strikes out too much, he is a switch hitter with speed and enough power to be a threat. Losing Donald (who I thought was perfect for that role and had a great attitude to boot) and living through Bruntlett and Castro just makes me hope he can play SS. I would guess he starts at Reading again with AAAA filler infielders at LHV just in case. If he does well, then an early promotion to AAA and a late summer call-up in 2011.

    My First Guess Top20ish: Colvin, Singleton, Cosart, (gap) May, Valle, Biddle, James, Santana, Rizzotti, DeFratus, Aumont, Worley, Mathieson, Ramirez, Castro, H.Garcia, C.Hernandez, Dugan, Hyatt, Rodriquez

  25. Regarding May, KG has a post on looking at statistical leaders in the minors over the last two months. Since July 1, May is tied for the lead in strikeouts across the minors. He says the usual stuff about May, but adds two things that surprised me: 1) KG calls his secondary offerings “quality” and his changeup in particular he calls “advanced” considering he’s 20; 2) KG says of May “no arm in the system matches his upside.” For a guy on the same team as Colvin and Cosart, that is very high praise. I was not aware that May’s secondary offerings were worth talking about – I always just pictured Mitch Williams when thinking about May.

  26. The grooming of that needed utility infielder as is suggested for Garcia is also an aim for Jeremy Barnes, presently at Lakewood. Barnes has been playing 2nd base, 3rd base a little, and ss some.

    He has recently been on a tear and lifted his BA to .298. His stats show: 37 2BH, 51 BB, 83 K, and .390 OBA.
    He is 23 so his rise needs to be speeded up. —>Clwtr/Reading in ’11, etc.
    A shame that Garcia does K too much. But still gets on base “plenty much.”

    No more Castro…or ?

  27. Looks like Lendy Castillo is Mr. GCL. He was the starting shortstop on the GCL Phils 08 championship team. Today he was the starting and winning pitcher in the GCL one game elimination first round. He went 7 innings striking out 10. The GCL Phils hung on to beat the GCL Mets 8-4 for the right to play the GCL Rays for all the marbles in the best of three GCL championship series.

  28. I dont think that is true about players having to reach Double A to be considered a Blue Chip prospect. I meanwe have 2 guys (Cosart and Singleton) who could reach the top 50 prospects and another 2-3 (Biddle, May, and Colvin) who could make the top 100 list. I think those are Blue Chip prospects.

    Also the reason why I dont like Worley where I do is because he doesnt have anything plus. He is at best a number 3 at the next level and possibly a number 5 to a reliever. I can see top of the rotation upside for 6-7 guys in our system and he isnt one of them.

  29. The KG article was one of those cross posted articles from BP he does for ESPN. Someone asked him about the May/Cosart comparison in the comments and he answered it in there

    Jeff-“Despite the early-season stumble, no arm in the system matches his upside.”
    How much higher is May’s ceiling than Cosart’s?

    Kevin Goldstein- (Holds thumb and index finger together very closely)

  30. Keep an eye on Brian Pointer. He has a great compact swing. I see him in the top 20 in 2011. You never know though what happens when they see big league quality breaking balls, but I think he is going to be a a player

  31. Rickey, I don’t see any Lendy Castillo that played in the GCL in 2008. Did he use a different name back then?

  32. SIFKA–
    Same name, Lendy Castillo was the starting SS for the 2008 Phillies GCL team. He had 145 AB that year.

  33. SIFPA,

    I looked Castillo up and I think that he is a pitcher but used to be a hitter. MiLB only has his stats from 2010 because before this year, he was not a pitcher. He has been in the Phillies organization since 2006 so I guess he wasn’t a good enough hitter so they switched him to a pitcher.

  34. Tier one pitcher – Colvin, Cosart, May
    Tier one hitter – Singleton, Santana
    Tier two pitcher – Biddle, Aumont, Rodriguez (need to see more innings from Biddle… Rodriguez is a fringe one… Aumont has so much upside and after struggling early on moving back into the starting role, like most people thought he would, put together a nice season)
    Tier two hitter – Valle, Altherr, Santana
    Honorable mention: JC Ramirez, Jesus Sanchez, Worley, H. Garcia, Pettis, Casto, Hyatt, Pettibone, DeFratus

  35. Lendy went 3 for 14 in the 08 playoffs. I thought he had a shot as a shortstop but Duran and Villar move up the depth chart moving him to the mound. Now Rios and Malcolm have taken over as the GCL shortstops. Duran at SS in Williamsport. Saw Schoenberger at short for Lakewood in a game when they were in Hagerstown recently but his arm did not seem strong enough to be an every day shortstop.

  36. Thanks for the information on Castillo. It looks like they made the right move as he has pitched pretty well this year. Of course, he is old for the GCL (21) but you have to start somewhere. The success of the GCL and other minor league Phillies teams (not the Iron Pigs!) bodes well for the system. Even though winning is not the most important thing at the minor league level, fielding teams that are highly competitive would seem to indicate the presence of some good prospects.

  37. Vance Worley has plus BB/9 and Plus K/BB. He also has a good ground ball/fly ball ratio and a low home run rate. His K and H rates have room for improvement and I think they will improve, but as long as his walk and HR rates remain low they are good enough. With Moyer out, he may be the Phillies #6 starter right now. I think he would be better off with another year in the minors, but he could vie for a starting job come spring training and he may be better then Kyle Kendrick right now. If he is not rushed, he could be a rookie of the year candidate in 2012. If we could trade any of our low A ball players for a still improving 22-year prospect like Worley, who could push Kendrick and Blanton, I would be happy.

  38. Dphrey, good top 30. No major omissions.
    01. Cosart
    02. Colvin
    03. Singleton
    04. Biddle
    05. Valle
    06. May
    07. James
    08. Santana
    09. Ramirez
    10. Worley
    11. H Garcia
    12. De Fratus
    13. Aumont
    14. Altherr
    15. Dugan
    16. M Alvarez
    17. J Rodriguez
    18. L Castro
    19. C Hernandez
    20. Rizzotti
    21. Shreve
    22. Hyatt
    23. J Sanchez
    24. Schwimer
    25. M Franco
    26. Mathieson
    27. K Walter
    28. Musser
    29. M Nunez
    30. L Martinez

  39. It will interesting to see the reaction on this site, when the “player to be named” in the Sweeney trade is announced. Everyone is so invested in their own particular favorite prospect. Heaven help us if it is Rizzotti.

  40. ^The details of the Mike Sweeney trade were listed as PTBNL *OR* Cash Considerations. The Phillies will only have to send a PTBNL if they decide they don’t want to send money to Seattle… Heaven help the Phils if they decide to try a prospect and not send the money to Seattle and that prospect turns into something.

  41. Btw, can someone explain the love for Santana to me? Yes, he’s a physical beast and he’s young, but he hasn’t had a great year and really, only had a few good weeks at the GCL. I’m not sure he would make my top 10.

  42. Brown will still be a rookie next year as he will have spent less than 45 days on the 25 man roster during the time it is still limited to 25 men (i.e. before 1 Sept). Unless he gets 100 PA in the next month that is…he’ll still be a rookie and thus still be our official #1 prospect.

  43. Thanks, NEPP. Just wanted to have that cleared up before people really started tossing lists around.

  44. To clarify further, by “get 100 PAs” I meant get another 100 PA from the 53 he currently has. He’ll have approximately 33 days of service time (off the top of my head without counting days) so he’ll keep his eligibility.

  45. Is Santana hurt?? Haven’t seen his name lately in the box scores. What does everybody think regarding Lakewood’s outfield next yr? Who will be there? There are many names:Santana,Dugan, Altherr, Alvarez, Hudson, Eldemire (I think that is his name) all make it? Who starts?

  46. Kphil I think the reason you have seen his name as much is the reason you stated there. Right now Williamsport is pretty crowded in the outfield. Dugan, Alvarez, Altherr, Hudson, and Santana are all fighting for AB’s. There is a DH until you get to AA, but the Phils have other players splitting time between DH and a position at Williamsport already.

    I think Minor League Spring Training next year will determine some of who makes Lakewood and who winds up in Extended Spring Training and repeats Williamsport. I think Hudson is almost certainly headed back to Williamsport next year.

    Of the 6 ‘prospect’ names who are OF’s below Lakewood (Altherr, Alvarez, Dugan, Eldemire, Hudson, and Santana) I think Hudson is most likely to repeat Williamsport and Eldemire or Alvarez has the best shot at jumping Lakewood and being at Clearwater to start the season or be quickly promoted to Clearwater if they’re excelling at Lakewood.

  47. Ok thanks Fly….I see Cody Overbeck continues to build on his end of season stats….hit a hr tonight and has 25 on the yr

  48. Altherr, Alvarez and Eldemire start in OF at Lakewood. Dugan back to 1B and Santana DH. Hudson extended spring and repeats NYPL. Collier extended spring. Hewitt undeservedly gets promoted to High A, just because there is no room. Sort of like Gump last year.
    Just my guess.

  49. Wow!

    Hewitt to high A? The only thing he’s done that is outstanding is collect many dollars of first pick Philles’ draft money. He seems a complete bust–can’t recognize/hit off-speed stuff; inadequate in the field to play any infield position (1st base aside); hasn’t shown much ability to learn with no progress in the time he’s been in the org.

    Of course, to give up on him now would be to admit a large scouting error, but since they’ve invested so much in him they’ve got to hope & pray that some light will go on….emphasizing the word: Patience.

    In ’11 he should return to the same level he just now done so terribly at, and moved up not as a favor but rather as a reward for success.

    We should hope & pray ourselves that the org. uses their oncoming 2011 four (4) draft choices [within the first two rounds] more wisely than that kind of pick.

  50. Cody Overbeck is starting to look legit, his avg is near .260 now and the power surge is incredible, he is absolutley launching balls, het hot one a couple nights ago over the score board in Reading, anyone familar with the stadium should know that’s famn impressive. I had my doubts about him with the slow start at AA and then a warm up that drastically and rapidly cooled, but this month he is absolutely on fire and along with the power surge he’s hitting consistently for average as well. It was interesting seeing him play first tonight and Garcia playing 3rd. (Bozied was used as DH with playing New Britain)

    Garcia was pretty impressive at 3rd in fact I think he fielded it better than he does 2nd. His hitting has cooled and avg down now from the great start he had. He tries to bunt too much for a base hit and I’m not that impressed with his speed.

    Speaking of not being impressed. Freddy Galvis his bat has just seemed to go dead, although in a clutch situation he seems to still be able to get a hit. But what’s really upsetting to me has been what seems to be the less that stellar fielding from him I’ve grown a custom to.

    It was also my first time seeing Hyatt pitch as I had gone to Fl for a while when he came up. He looked ok but definetly looks like he can give up the long ball too much. Pitch speed was consistently in the 90-92 range (with adjustment made for Reading’s gun) he topped out at 95 in the 7th just before he started to lose his stuff and command.

  51. Dhrey,
    Yeah, I’m surprised Franco doesn’t get much chatter considering, he is 17 years old in the GCL. Also, being a 3B, which everyone is obsessed with filling through the minor league system.
    The player I always forget about is Pettibone. Not sure what to make of him, but he should be in the 20-30 range.

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