I went to the Iron Pigs game tonight, sat in the picnic area down the LF line about even with the left fielder. Great seats to watch the action in the IF, and you could really see the movement in a lot of the breaking pitches thrown.
The IPs lost 11-7 to the Gwinnett Braves, largely because of bad BABIP luck and mistakes that came back to bite them. The Braves had four flare doubles fall in down the lines, and, to their credit, made two difficult catches of flares hit by IPs batters. IPs also hit more than their share of “at ’em balls”.
I was especially interested in Vance Worley and Matt Rizzotti. Worley I had seen at Reading, and Rizzotti I had seen in spring training a couple of years ago, but not really noticed. Worley had a really bad night. Gave up 4 runs in the first, seemed that he was squeezed a bit by the home plate ump, a flare fell in, and then he gave up a long HR. Pitched well in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th despite a first row HR, then sort of fell apart in the 5th. He sat at around 92/93 with his FB (which he kept missing with, although they were very close pitches (Hoover wanted a lot of the calls judging by how long he held his mitt in place). He hit 94 a couple of times in the 4th inning. He threw an 84 mph slider, and a high-70’s curve.
Rizzotti is a very big guy–about 6’5″ I think, and built like a pulling guard. Runs OK for his size. He wouldn’t be as bad as Luzinski in LF, but probably no better than Ibáñez. Phils need to try him there even if they think he can’t do it, just to make other teams think they have options if they try to trade him. He hits with a very spread-out stance from the left side, holds his bat pretty low then cocks it as the pitcher gets ready to release. His weight is back on his left leg, and he takes little if any stride when he swings. He roped a foul in his first AB, then drew a walk, got hit in the shin the second time up with a 2-0 count. Third time up with two runners on he ripped a line drive double to the warning track in deep CF off a slider, then fourth time went 1-2, then worked the count full, and bounced a single up the middle off a breaking ball. Last AB, he looked bad against two breaking balls thrown by the Braves’ closer and struck out.
I was somewhat impressed by Bocock at SS for the Pigs–he hit the ball hard three times (only one hit to show for it) and fielded his position brilliantly. If he could just hit .250 or so with some walks, he’s be a very valuable player for some team. I’ll bet most don’t know that he hit .309 in July with an .854 OPS–I’ll bet he’s never had a month like that anywhere.
Zagurski, who topped at 89, was unlucky to give up the two runs (one earned) he surrendered with some shoddy fielding behind him and one of the flare doubles. Stutes looked solid but the game was out-of-hand by then.
Oh–almost forgot this. Brian Mazone (the pitcher) pinch hit for the Pigs and drilled the hardest hit ball of the night, a tape-measure, line-drive HR to RF. Savery also pinch hit a grounded out to first on the first pitch.
Phuture Phillies 
Very nice analysis of the game! Please continue more in the future
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Mazone has pinch hit several times recently.
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Thompson went 5 for 5 including 3 doubles, and his BA is back up over 300 again (same as at Reading). As a legitimate speed guy (30 steals so far) with a hot bat, he’s earned a look for September call-up.
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I caught some of the game on TV. Sellers made one of the bonehead errors I have seen in 60 years of watching baseball. He seemed to be holding the bag on a rundown and then missed the throw. Horrid baseball.
The Riz looks ok as far as in the field. I don’t see why he can’ t play Lf as well as Jim Greengrass.
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I keep hearing this try Rizzotti in left. In my opinion, the Phillies aren’t stupid. They know they would increase his value if he could play left. There is no reason to NOT have tried this in the past. I played through high school and was a decent shortstop, but had zero ability to play the outfield, just couldn’t get the reads, and it wasn’t from lack of practicing. Not everyone can play the outfield. At his size, I’m sure he’s probably been a first baseman his whole life, so not easy to make that transition, but again, the Phillies would be doing themselves a disservice by not trying him there. Again, I don’t think they are that stupid that they wouldn’t have tried it. Some say they will wait until the fall, but as we all know, the minors isn’t about winning games, it’s about maximizing your assets. In my opinion, if they thought he could play out there, they would be trying it NOW. There is no reason to wait until the fall.
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Most major position changes (SS to CF, 3B to C, 1B to LF,etc) do occur in the fall instructional league or in spring training. That’s not saying it never happens during the regular season but it is rare. As for the Phillies and Rizzotti…prior to this season there wasn’t a need for Rizzotti to learn another position…now that he’s showing a posssible major league bat and he’s only one step below the majors…well it would wise now to see if Rizzotti can handle LF. It’s really been fun reading the various opinions on Rizzotti. I have to say many (if not most) people to this site have given their opinion on Rizzotti as if they were actually baseball scouts/management. I’m behind Rizzotti..I don’t really have an opinion on his ability or lack of to play LF since I never been to any of his games. If he can..that would be great..Are the odds against him? Yeah….but over coming long odds is a part of everyday baseball. What round was Mike Piazza drafted in? How about Andy Petitte?
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Hey, if Val Pascucci can play the OF, ANYONE can. I mean, look at who patrolled the Phils LF for a good part of this decade. Burrell wasn’t a great LF by any means, but he did what he could and did it the best he could. He wasn’t gonna win any gold gloves or such, but if Rizzotti does get moved and performs even average at best, then I think people will be satisfied.
This fall will be a big test to see what the Phils do with him.
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Agree that this offseason will put the Rizotti to leftfield argument to rest, one way or another
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Again about Rizzotti in LF. I’m so sick of reading about it that I almost wish they would trade him so people would shut up about it. I had my say on the point, but what really baffles me is this: why would people WANT to put a guy in left who AT BEST is going to be a very poor defensive LF? I mean, don’t you guys get that an effective LF, apart from a lot of other skills that Rizzotti may or may not have (and by all indications doesn’t have) needs to be FAST – and we know Rizzotti isn’t that. Comparing him with lousy OFs, and speculating that he might be better defensively than they are … doesn’t mean anything.
It’s reasonable to argue that he should learn the OF to make him a viable bench player. But the idea that he should learn OF so he could be a regular in the OF is … silly. Yes, all other things (hitting, defense) being equal, a LF is a little more valuable than a 1B – but all else is not equal – Rizzotti’s only real chance to be a regular is at 1B.
I know what it is … you got a group of people who are convinced that Rizzotti is going to be a star as a hitter – and know he is blocked at 1B – so they are grasping at straws to find a way to get him in the Phillies’ lineup. All I can say is this: as much as I like Rizzotti, the thought of him as the regular Phillies LF fills me as dread. People compare him to Burrell. The fact is that his offensive upside is probably lower than Burrell’s (who was a heck of a hitter), and defensively he would almost certainly be worse, maybe a lot worse. Why would you WANT that for the Phillies?
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It’s natural. Anyone remember the various ideas that had Jim Thome moving back to 3B? That was golden. (Not on these forums necessarily.)
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Honestly, more realistic (that is, not at all realistic at all but less unrealistic) would be slotting Rizzotti in at 1B and moving HOWARD to LF. Howard is faster and more athletic than Rizzotti, and as an established Major League hitter he wouldn’t face the stress of a position move combined with learning to hit at the Major League level.
Of course the above is not meant as a serious suggestion, it just highlights how silly it is to expect Rizzotti to be able to play LF well enough to be a regular at this position at the Major League level.
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Thanks Larry, couldn’t agree more. anyone who saw Adam Dunn play the outfield knows what a huge negative impact a poor outfielder can have on a game
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Jim Kaat… You asked when Piazza and Pettite were drafted.. Do you think Rizz is on the juice too? jk 🙂
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It must be wonderful to be so all-knowing that you feel you are justified in ridiculing everyone who merely suggests that maybe Rizzotti should be tried in LF to see if he can play the position.
Why do we wonder if he can do it? Wouldn’t it be nice to have someone who can hit, maybe .350, play for our side. Sure, I know its a stretch to think that he can hit .350 in the ML – but how can you be so sure that he can’t. After all, if its OK to project a 19 year old kid hitting .250 in low A will eventually hit >.300, why is it so unreasonable to project that a 24 year old hitting .360 in AA might continue to hit big time in the ML? In both cases you’re dealing with wishful thinking and why are your fantasies more insightful than someone else’s? The one thing that we all agree with is that he will never play first base for the Phillies. So, its LF or nothing.
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On Bocock. He had a 2 week stretch where he looked like a future hall of famer. He was hitting everything. Another reason I love baseball. You never know what to expect. That stretch was an aberration, but it was fun.
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Nice write-up. Appears it is becoming another endless Rizzotti debate though.
Because of his significant improvement, Rizzotti needs to hit for another year to ‘prove’ this season was not a fluke. Whatever position lets him continue to hit is where I would play him.
Phils OF is blocked also with all-stars Ibanez and Victorino; not to mention demi-god Brown (all who can bat lefty). And that assumes Werth does not return. Pretty nice to have such a good major league club, huh?
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I heard one of the Phillies minor league officials (I forget who it was) being interviewed on radio before a Phillies game and he said that Rizzotti had been tried in the outfield a few years ago (probably in Williamsport or the GCL) and that it did not work and was not an option in the future.
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Lenny,
I don’t pretend to be an expert or even close to it. But one doesn’t have to be an expert to know that Rizzotti won’t hit .350 in the major leagues, or anywhere near it. Why? Short answer: (1) Expert opinion (not mine, but the real experts), (2) his statistics, PROPERLY INTERPRETED, (3) his skill set, (4) his age, (5) regression to the mean and (6) history. On the other side? Nothing, zip, nada. A .350 BA in one minor league year does not, by itself, predict similar major league performance. At all.
I won’t get deeply into the long version, which would to a large extent just repeat prior posts anyway. But here’s an interesting exercise for you. How many career .330 (not .350, I’m lowering the bar) hitters have there been, post WW2? Five, counting Musial as post-war.
Ted Williams .344
Tony Gwynn .338
Albert Pujols .332
Ichiro Suzuki .331
Stan Musial .331
Musial, of course , was not entirely post war, but mostly.
Now, it’s silly to project ANYBODY into that company based upon minor league experience. But let’s make a list of some things that EVERY ONE of those players had in common (that distinguishes them from Rizzotti):
(1) Every one of them was a regular or semi regular in the major leagues by age 22 (Gwynn) or earlier, aside from Suzuki of course who was a regular in Japan.
(2) They were all fast – not all big base stealers, but all fast, at least when young.
(3) They all had low K percentages – Pujols the highest by far, but still low for his era.
(4) While each of them had better than average BABIP, none of them had career BABIP within 50 points of Rizzotti’s BABIP this year. Even these HOFers can’t maintain a BABIP over .357 (Suzuki, with 30 to 50 IF hits per year) and the “slugger” types among them (Williams, Pujols and Musial) all had BABIP (career) under .330. I will repeat one point from prior posts – if Rizzotti maintained a BABIP of .330 (better than Williams, Musial, and Pujols) , his BA would fall to about .300, assuming he maintains his HR% and K%.
Finally, you know how many AA players have hit over .350 for the year? Hundreds. How many of them hit nearly that well in the major leagues? I could list many, many examples, but I decided merely to go back 5 years and look at ONE Reading team. The team leader in BA that year was Randy Ruiz who hit .349 (and hit 27 HR). That wasn’t a complete fluke by any means; Ruiz hit almost 200 minor league HRs and had a minor league BA over .300. He finally got a major league shot in 2008, and actually had a decent season as a part timer for Toronto last year. But … well, do I need to even finish the sentence? And there are HUNDREDS of guys like him. And, well basically NO ONE who came out of nowhere (virtually) at age 24 in AA went on to have star level careers (let alone bat .350!!! in the major leagues. Even guys like Howard who starred on AA as 24 year olds (and even THAT is extremely rare for a star level player, most of whom are in the majors by then) have better resumes and skill sets than Rizzotti.
Funny I picked Ruiz out, though – it was totally random, but really he and Rizz make a very interesting comp. Not highly regarded, defensively limited players who, despite their limitations, could really hit. Those guys can have a tough time getting a chance, but when given a chance, can have value (but not “star” value). Hopefully Rizz will get a chance with someone before he’s 30, which was when Ruiz got his chance.
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Oh, and this:
“In both cases you’re dealing with wishful thinking and why are your fantasies more insightful than someone else’s?”
No, no, a thousand times no. Not all projections of minor league performance are created equally. Just because we can never KNOW what someone will do in the major leagues, doesn’t mean we can’t make reasonable projections. It’s one thing to think that a 19 year old with the right tools in low A hitting .250 COULD develop into a .300 hitter someday in the majors. It’s another to project a 24 year old kid, an almost finished product, to hit .350 (!!!), or even close to it, in the majors, when there are any number of reasons (see prior comment) to think he isn’t even CLOSE to capable of such performance in the majors.
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Larry:
Not to split hairs but wasn’t Ted Williams signed out of HS, Puljos had just one college year, Suzuki had no college and Musial started playing pro ball at age 15. But Gwynn did get drafted out of college. That could explain why they were in the majors at age 22. They had a good start on Rizz who maybe should have signed when he was drafted out of high school but opted to play college ball.
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Well, LarryM is certainly passionate and has done his research to bolster his arguments. And I don’t necessarily second guess anything he has written. The statistics do not favor the Rizz as anything but a DH of first baseman, most likely for another team.
My view of this is much more simple, so call me a simpleton if you will, but I don’t think that all of these projections, while interesting and perhaps correct, are all that important right now. Rizz is 24 and is under the control of the team for the near and even long term future. He probably can’t be taught to be a competent LFer, but there’s probably little harm in seeing if he could play the outfield. Many, like Ryan Howard, tried and could not do it (do y’all remember that? They experimented with him in the fall of 2004 to see if they could shoe horn him and Thome into the same line-up – it was a failure and, as a result, they correctly traded Thome). If he can play a little OF, you try him out in AAA and see if it works. If he takes to it, that’s wonderful and it becomes another skill he brings to the big leagues. If he’s called up, he can play a little first, pinch hit a little and, perhaps, start once in a while in the outfield. If he stinks, you stop the silly experiment. If he’s adequate, you see if the bat makes the below average defense worth the while. We all need to remember that Rizzotti is becoming renowned as an extraordinarily hard worker. Hard working players have a way of learning skills that other said they couldn’t master. Utley went from being a butcher at second to being one of the 2 or 3 best fielding second basemen in baseball (although he’s probably not that anymore due to age and injuries) and, in a like manner, Raul Ibanez, through dint of hard work, turned himself into a guy who could play the outfield – not great, mind you, but good enough where it was worth it to keep him in left if he hit.
So, let’s all breathe deep and realize that, if the team does experiment with the Rizz in left, HE is going to determine if it’s a good move or a fools errand and how that will work out could play itself out over a fairly long period of time. The Phils understand the importance of defense, which is why a guy like Dobbs can’t find the at bats he so desperately needs. I’m not worried about any slipperly slope with Matt Rizzotti in left – it probably won’t work out there, but it won’t signal the inexorable arrival of the apocalypse either.
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LarryM – having gone back and looked at Randy Ruiz’s statistics, I don’t think he’s a very good comp for Rizzotti. Randy Ruiz was 3 years older than Rizzotti when he dominated AA. In other words, he was a really old prospect. Matt Rizzotti, by comparison, is just slightly old for a top prospect at AAA at this point so, just as it’s fair (and accurate) to point out that you can’t compare a 24 year old to a 19 year old, you also can’t say that at 24 year old who passed through AA as that league’s premier hitter and on to AAA, is like a guy who spent the year at AA at age 27 (although he had a fabulous year at the plate that season in very limited at bats).
So, we’ll see with Rizzotti, but most of the players who rise as Rizzotti has really can hit and typically get a chance in the majors with varying success. The high batting average is a good omen for him. Many of the guys who ended up making it (Jack Cust, Ken Phelps, are examples), did not for as high of an average as Rizzotti has this year.
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How old was Howard when he was called up to the majors from AAA? Wasn’t he 24 or 25 years old?
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Howard was 24 when he got a late call-up; 25 when he was rookie of the year. Admittedly, Howard was an exception and was a superior power hitter when compared with Rizzotti. But Rizzotti has hit for a higher average, at least this year.
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Catch,
Talk about missing the forest for the trees. I didn’t say Ruiz was a close comp, but an interesting comp. Yes, he has a better chance that Ruiz to get a real shot at a major league job because of his age. And you’ll recall that I’m maybe the most optimistic (ironically) of the reasonable posters regarding Rizzotti. But let’s not forget my main point – lots of guys hit .350 in AA or close to it and go on to have mediocre careers at best. Ruiz was exhibit 1 of hundreds proving that proposition, possibly over a thousand, if I had the time and inclination to list them.
And some context; I was responding to the people around here who want to make a LF out of him because they are convinced he is going to be a superstar as a hitter – or, at least has a reasonable chance to hit in the neighborhood of .350! Rizz is one HELL of a lot closer to Ruiz than to the player that his most unrealistic fans around here imagine him to be.
And as long as we’re talking about Ruiz, he didn’t come out of nowhere in 2005 exactly. He had hit almost everywhere he played before then – granted it was in A ball, but you wonder why he knocked around so much before 2005, and why he didn’t get a chance at AA before then. I mean, I have a pretty good idea as to the likely reasons, but really he had shown more than Rizz prior to his big year at Reading.
The Howard comp is really just silly, for reasons which you acknowledge and other reasons (including but not limited to prior track record). But really the whole “Emperor has no clothes” aspect of all of this is BABIP. I get how some people have convinced themselves that the facts that (a) some people misuse BABIP in analyzing performance, and (b) that hitters DO have control over BABIP to some extent, somehow lead to the conclusion that BABIP is meaningless. But of course that’s not true; Freddy Galvis is more likely to hit 30 HR a year in the majors than Rizz is to maintain a .350 plus (let alone .400) BABIP in the majors. Giving Rizz EVERY benefit of the doubt, his performance this year projects out to maybe .290 in the major leagues AT BEST, taking into account BABIP and the difference between doing it in AA and in the majors. No one – NO ONE – can hit .350 or really even much over .300 (in the majors, over the long run) with Rizzotti’s combination of high K rate, mid range power, and slow speed. NO ONE. Hasn’t been done (in the post WW2 period – it was a different game before then). Won’t be done. Can’t be done.
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LarryM – actually, you and I are quibbling on the finer points (no, I don’t think I’m missing the forest for the trees, I know PRECISELY what type of “tree” Matt Rizzotti is in the minor league forest) but I think we basically agree on most issues. I also agree that Rizzotti is probably a much closer comp to Ruiz than Howard and also agreed that there are literally hundreds of failed minor league would-be sluggers who post cartoon-like numbers in AA and AAA who turn out to be just okay or much worse than that. To me, it is still interesting to see just how much Rizz’s power will develop. He flashed good power numbers in Reading and the reports reflect that he consistently hits the ball hard and far, with some tape measure shots mixed among his drives. If the power continues to surge, he becomes a more and more intriguing option for the team, particularly in CBP. I think it’s pretty clear he is going to be a major league player – what is not clear is whether he can evolve into a player who gets significant at bats.
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Catch,
Okay, I guess the forrest/trees comment was a little unfair. 🙂
And I agree that Rizzotti’s development as a power hitter is the real issue. His BA is (mostly) an illusion, but his power surge is likely real, and is the aspect of his game that could improve even further. But he still is blocked by Howard, and still would be miscast as a LF.
Call me crazy, but Rizzotti also highlights why the Howard contractwas likely a mistake. I love Howard, and as I said Rizzotti isn’t going to be a Howard caliber player, but I think I might rather have Rizzotti or someone similar, age 26 to 29, PLUS 25 million a year to spend on free agents (say Werth PLUS a few million extra to spend elsewhere) than an age 32 to 35 Howard.
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LarryM,
My opinion changed recently to believe that the Howard signing will be a very good one. Besides being a proven power hitter, he is 1. still improving defensively 2. is clearly taking better care of his conditioning / body – so I hypothesize he’ll be able to maintain/improve performance 3. appears to be trying to hit more for average and be better rounded.
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Throw in,
I don’t want to derail the thread by a lengthy response, but while I don’t think the contract is as bad as many people think, his defense has returned to its sub-par norm, his increase in BA is much outweighed by his decrease in power and BB, and his conditioning, while a good thing and part of the reason why the contract isn’t as bad as some people think, won’t stop normal age related decline in his mid 30s.
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