We’ll get back on track with the voting for #25. Im planning on leaving the voting open for about 24 hours for each of the remaining spots, so make sure to check in once a day and get your vote in. I’m also finishing up the writeup for the SONAR scores for catching prospects, which should be done in the next day or so. Colby Shreve, who has yet to throw a pitch in the Phillies system, takes the voting at #24. Its a leap of faith at this point, but the pre-surgery template looked pretty outstanding, and there haven’t been any reports that I’ve read indicating he’s had setbacks, some rehabs take longer than others. I initially thought I’d have Shreve higher on my list, but when I sat down to produce my Top 30, he ended up #29. There was a bit of write-in support for Jesus Sanchez, Matt Way, and Jonathon Villar. I actually was able to add all of them to the polling for #25, so check below for more.
01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21. Jon Pettibone, RHP
22. Yohan Flande, LHP
23. Leandro Castro, OF
24. Colby Shreve, RHP
25.
Phuture Phillies 
Collier. Going with “Potential Potential Potential” for all my votes from here on out. It’s way more fun that way
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I didn’t agree with it at the time, and still don’t now but I don’t think the difference between Schwimer and Rosenberg is 8+ spots. I think Rosenberg should be lower and they both should be sitting around here, but I also didn’t have Savery, Galvis, or Flande as high on my list as the community. So I’m still voting for Collier, as I have been since Stutes won. A poor second year after what was an encouraging rookie showing is pardonable. I expect him to bounce back.
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I voted for Travis Mattair. I truly believe he will have a break out season. We all should remember he would have been leaving college after this season. Expectations would have been Short A. Instead he is at High A. I would say he is still a top 30 prospect.
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Jesus Sanchez again for me. But I just noticed Zagurski, who may be the prospect we are forgetting. He is coming off TJ surgery and had a very good K rate last season. Like Mathieson he has MLB experience, but he may be a better be than Mathieson because he only had one TJ surgery and he is left handed.
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Carpenter has an outside shot to be a 5th starter. Given the lack of rotation depth he should get a chance sometime this season. Hopefully he steps up his game at AAA but even if he struggles he may get a spot start or two. Worth a vote here.
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Jonathan Villar,
Good hitting production. Plays premium position. Appropriate age to level. Decent size. Speed. Fewest weaknesses of any position player left.
I have Villar higher on my list than Galvis, Rosenberg, Savery, Shreve and Collier.
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This needs to be a big year for Collier. One write up I saw when he was drafted was a “Garrett Anderson” clone. After Collier I would go with Way and Sanchez.
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Schwimmer. Just because Rosenberg is in and I agree they are fairly comparable.
Collier may be a good choice. I think i retrospect. He should have gotten more fundamental instruction in EST last year and gone to A (ss), where he may have done better. Then this year for full season intro. The Phils must have been quite enamored of his tools. I hope the experience has not dented his confidence. All these guys have a different makeup, so who knows? Have to hope his competitive spirit has been challenged and he comes to this season with a vengeance.
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I’m sticking with Carpenter. He had a very nice season at AAA.
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Collier then Villar for me at this spot.
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You can make a legitimate argument for just about any of these guys at this point, and I’ve got Mayberry, Schwimer, Dugan, Sanchez, Villar, Way and Collier on my own Top 30. The Mayberry cause looks hopeless at this point, so I’m going to engage in a bit of strategery and shift support to Schwimer here.
Schwimer’s got excellent pro numbers, good control, and has an approach for pitching to both righties and lefties. I have him one notch above Rosenberg on my Top 30 (success at a higher level, and at a younger age), so as The Artist says above, he belongs on this list right around here.
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Continue with Villar.
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I also have Schwimer ahead of Rosenberg on my Top 30, and he’s the highest guy left on my list. So my vote goes for him.
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I voted Schwim, but was very tempted to vote for Sanchez who, in my view, is a huge sleeper candidate.
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Is Anthony Hewitt still playing baseball? He was our top pick in 2008? Where is he on the list? Looks as bad today as it did 2 years ago. The Organization has been decimated by trades the last two plus seasons with the lee, halladay, blanton, etc…trades and still our top 2 picks from 2008 cannot break into the top 30. It shows either how deep our team is OR how bad those picks were.
Went with Carpenter above, he is a prospect ready to contribute to the major league team this season…how many “toolsy” outfielders can fill 3 positions in a non DH league?
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Villar. Of all those left, most likely to have an impact.
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I have slotted my top 30 except for 1 spot. So I went to the Stats and looked at pitchers with 50+ innings and sorted by WHIP. Austin Hyatt tops the list. He was 23 pitching in Wmpsrt and some A-. I have to see more and he has to move fast to be a top 30 prospect. Next on the available list was Alex Concepcion. He’s 24 and in AA. I saw him pitch and liked what I saw. He also pitched a bit in AAA with list drop off. He started 7 games in AA but looks like they will use him in relief which drops his value.
Schwim is next on the list and he is on my top 30. After him it’s Kevin Angelle (21 in GCL) and Josh Zeid (22 in Wmsprt). Angelle surprised me that he was this high, but I like Zeid just because he’s a Connecticut guy. So is Hewitt but I don’t think he’s from CT. He just went to prep school here. Mike Cisco (22 in AA) and Ryan Sasaki (18 in GCL) are right behind. There are some guys to think about.
On the position player side, I’m surprised I haven’t seen Kennelly’s name more. He might not have a position but he has a bat. He was 22 last year so he’s still young. I saw him catch a game with reading last year and he can’t handle the pop-up behind home plate. I think the Phils would love to have him as a utility guy and if he can handle catcher, he’d be very valuable. I thought he did a nice job with blocking balls in the dirt and he handled a bunt out in front of home plate. It was 1 game but he might make a nice utility guy who can be an emergency catcher.
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There’s about 10 guys that could easily fill this spot. Way and Hyatt put up great numbers although they were both a bit old and don’t throw hard enough. Collier has potential but didn’t hit a lick last year. Hudson, Dugan, and Hewitt all have potential also but haven’t shown anything. Sanchez really excites me bedause of his story but his max is probably in middle relief. Shwimm had good numbers and is a favorite of this site but his max is also middle relief. I decided to vote for Collier because I think he has a good chance of getting back to what he was. I know the Phillies organization believe he’ll bounce back. I hope they’re right.
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Julio Rodriguez gets my vote. He does not get much publicity but had great stats in GCL last year as an 18 yo and great stats in winter ball in the PWL (except for control).
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Most of these guys are very unlikely to ever even get a whiff of the majors, except for Mayberry and Carpenter who have already done so. I still like Carpenter here, just based on his likelihood of contributing on the MLB level.
While this is not scientific, here is an illustration of my thought process: assume Carpenter has a 50% chance of becoming Jason Grilli. Grilli has a career WAR of 2.5. That means Carp has an expected career WAR of 1.25. Now for someone like Collier, we’ve heard a comp of Garret Anderson. I’m estimating Garret Anderson has a career WAR of 40 (fangraphs doesn’t go all the way back to the 90s so I did an estimate). What is the probability of Collier becoming Garret Anderson? 2%? Collier’s expected WAR would then be 0.8. So even factoring in Collier’s huge upside, Carp’s career is still more valuable.
One can argue about the correct MLB comp and each prospect’s probability of making that comp, but that’s how I think about it and why I voted for Carp. Carp for president!
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I like Kennelly a bit. He started slow in Reading, but his final numbers, while not great, were at least close to respectable. If he had any hope of staying behind the plate he’d be on our list already. As a utility guy he’s probably low to mid-30’s.
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Voted for Hudson.
I think Mattair and Hewitt deserve to be in the top 30.
This will be an interesting year in our Minors. It is great that
there are over 20 players in the lower levels who have a heartbeat and deserve watching.
Very different from the Pre-Gillick Period.
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Mattair seems like a nice guy, but he’s at a low level AND he pretty much went nowhere last year. I don’t see how he makes a top 30 list.
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Agreed with Catch on Mattair. To point to his age and say he’s young yet, ok. But why then not give the same benefit of the doubt to Alan Schoenberger, TJ Warren, D’Arby Myers, or Julian Sampson? Age relative to league is important, but it doesn’t make a prospect.
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Mattair didn’t sniff my Top 30, but he’s certainly still on my radar. He’s among the best defensive third basemen in the minors, and he’s still a big athletic kid, so there’s always hope. Still, he might be best served by completely revamping his hitting mechanics at this point.
We always talk about the toolsy outfielders, but Mattair is a toolsy infielder — he just needs someone to rebuild his swing. Easier said than done though, obviously.
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Just a passing comment: Would I be out of line saying some of the guys in this part of the rankings would be in our top 10 in the late ’80s to mid-’90s?
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Diamond Derby —
I think they probably would make such a top 10.
1995 top 10:
Rolen
Gomes
Botallico
Loewer
the immortal Rich Holifield
Kevin Jordan
Lieberthal
Tyler Green
Rich Nye, who wasn’t bad, pre-injury
the immortal Jon McMullen, 1B
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Yeah, before ’95, I think even more than 1 or 2 would have made it.
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Actually that was not a bad top 10.
Rolen – all-star
Lower and Green = solid starters, maybe #4s, both derailed by injuries
Botallico and Gomes = potentially good relievers, Botallico derailed by injury
Lieberthal = starting C and sometime all-star
Nye had potential, never got into more than a game or two, then injuries
Holifield and McMullen? I remember almost everyone, but those two ?????
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I looked at 1993, Mike Lieberthal had the best career and the only noteworthy players after that were Todd Pratt, Tyler Green, Kevin Stocker and Mike Williams. It certainly demonstrates the importance of a farm system towards developing a winning team. Any great Phillies team, the Whiz Kids, the 1976-83 Phils, this version, has been built thanks to significant production from the farm. 1946-48 was probably the greatest days of the Phillies farm.
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Just for kicks, 1948’s prospect list would’ve featured Richie Ashburn (Future HOFer, coming off hitting .362 at Utica), Robin Roberts (HOFer, amateur free agent), Curt Simmons (193 career victories), Stan Lopata (2x All Star), and Willie Jones (2x All Star). Beyond those five were Steve Ridzik, Bubba Church and Putsy Caballero. Now THAT’S a farm system.
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Alan – very cool list from 48. Herb Pennock and Bob Carpenter Sr made a point of really going out and looking for Hi Potential guys after the war. I do not know why, given their success, they stopped doing this.
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Pennock died in January of ’48, so that went a long way towards stunting their growth. The Phillies were also slow to integrate, while the National League stocked up on strong talent.
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For kicks, I looked at 1958’s theoretical top prospect list as well. Chris Short a bullet at #1. Art Mahaffey second. Beyond them you have Bobby Wine, Dallas Green, Pancho Herrera (who was good for two seasons). It’s dreck beyond that.
Our farm system was great at producing managers though. The system included Whitey Herzog, Paul Owens (who hit .407 in the NY-Penn League), John McNamara, Dallas Green, and Wayne Graham (Rice’s head coach).
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