Reader Top 30; #24

2010 Reader Top 30

Leandro Castro steamrolled his way to the #23 spot, taking 30% of the vote and edging out Zach Collier and Colby Shreve. Michael Schwimer received the most write-in support, so he’ll enter the ballot for #24. I won’t waste any more words here, you know the drill by now. Upward and onward.

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21. Jon Pettibone, RHP
22. Yohan Flande, LHP
23. Leandro Castro, OF
24.

73 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #24”

  3. We finally pushed Castro through. Zach Collier looks good in this slot. I’ve left Mayberry and Carpenter off my list because I think they are 4A players. Mayberry spent significant time in Philly last year and I consider him the 25th man on that roster and not a prospect. Carpenter is fully formed and can help the big club in a pinch but will be a journeyman 4A player the rest of his career. I hope I’m wrong but that’s the way I see it.

    Hudson, Shreve and Rodriguez will be in my next 3 slots after Collier. I keep looking at Julio’s numbers in the GCL and in PR and there’s not a lot to dislike there. He was 18 last year and had the best pitching line of any of the 18 year olds in the system. Pettibone pitched at a higher level so he was rated higher but JR had excellect stats. In the GCL, 56Ks in 49 IP. WHIP of 1.01, ERA 3.08. 6.5 Hits per 9 IP, 10Ks per 9 IP. 2.5 BBs per 9. He gave up 1.1 HR per 9 which could be better. Pettibone didn’t give up a HR.

    Did you know that Heitor Correa hit 21 batters in 124 IP last year? Dan Brauer had 13 in 55 IP. Don’t dig in on these guys.

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  4. I think Sanchez should get a look soon. He had a real good first year as a pitcher. I think his future is as a reliever in the majors.

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  7. Dugan for me (now that I got The Schwiminator onto the ballot). Didn’t have a very impressive debut, but scouting reports on him are more favorable than our usual outfield prospects (i.e. He does seem to know how to hit the ball). Start him in Williamsport and bring him along slowly.

    – Jeff

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  8. Rodriguez for me. Put up great numbers in GCL where he was age appropriate. Over 10K/9IP, missed a lot of bats and showed some decent control. He did give up 6HR in almost 50 innings pitched so that’s something of a red flag, but these’s still a lot to like.

    Rodriguez, Villar, Sanchez, and Collier are all in the same cluster on my list. Hard really put one over the other, but I wanted to give Rodriguez a shout out.

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  9. OTHER; Jonathon Villar

    Though it looks like Collier is off to somewhat of a lead, it must be based upon a few good write-ups after his drafting. Villar is a far better athlete and will offer more in future by my view. Collier, though he may be his listed height and weight.appeared small to me, in a way. Some people have a good height and weight but just appear small looking. I like Collier for that. It seems to me , I have seen players like Collier before, in Spring Training and minor league settings. Smallish looking -bats left-throws left, currently a free swinging type, with some ability. Collier looks, to me, like minor leaguers and MLB reserves I have seen before, while, I say, Villar looks like good MLB SS’s I have seen before. With all that, Collier looks to have some good reflexes and good develop some better hitting ability, so I’d work him in a little further down the list, after Villar.

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  10. What am I missing about Chance Chapman? I’m not saying he deserves Top 30 consideration. And I realize he’s old. But what has he done to not get a closer look (I was going to say “get a chance” but…)

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  11. The Gulf Coast League is such a pitchers’ league that it’s hard to take Julio Rodriguez seriously simply based on the statistics. Rodriguez rated 19th in the league in K/9, 40th in K/BB and 86th in ERA.

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  12. Any dark horses? 7 spots left, 8 on the ballot. I’m pulling for Villar and Cisco to get on the ballot and pass up Rodriguez, Mayberry and Carpenter.

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  13. Chance Chapman is interesting, isn’t he? He started out late (23 his last year in college), but he’s just stearolled right through the minors. Could end up being one of the darkhorse candidates to replace Durbin next year.

    I’ll tell you, this top 30 list is interesting because, at the back end, you go back and look at some of the lesser known or overlooked players. Chapman is intriguing and, for me, the age is much less of a big deal for a pitcher than it would be for a hitter. If you throw hard, have pinpoint control, or a nice out pitch, it doesn’t make too much difference if you’re a few years older than everybody else.

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  14. Went with Collier. BP still had a positive scouting report on him last summer, despite the numbers. Was such a highly regarded draft pick, with 5 tool potential, I’ll give him a mulligan on last season and see if he doesn’t take off this year. Agree with those writing in Sanchez and Villar, I’d have both of them above several of the names on the list above.

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  17. OTHER – Jesus Sanchez

    Schwimer is the one on the ballot I think is even close to Sanchez. I agree with Bellman that Carpenter and Mayberry are AAAA players and the others are all unproven or coming off bad seasons. We don’t know if Sanchez’s single season as a pitcher was a fluke, I see no evidence of that. In his 1 season he pitched more innings (136) than Schwimer has in 2 seasons and nearly the same number of innings as Schwimer did in 4 years at college. Sanchez had a great overall season as a 21-year old starter at Lakewood and even improved the year went on. With that experience I think he’s a very good bet to stay on track or improve this year and next.

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  21. I am interested in seeing Sanchez this year—-did not see him throw when I went Lakewood last year. Very good numbers though for a recently converted former catcher.

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  23. We’re absolutely loaded in A ball, but thin at the upper levels. At least some of these younger guys should mature into legit prospects this year, and once they do, our system will be in decent shape. We’re okay 1-5, thin 5-10, but relatively outstanding 10-40. With only 6 spots left, we have well over more than 6 in the system. Its not often that you can even name more than 30 prospects, but we certainly have more than 30 players to keep an eye on…

    A few lucrative international signings, combined with the emergence of several talented recent draft picks and a solid 2010 draft would re-establish this system firmly in the top tier.

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  25. Maybe this year Heitor Correa and Edgar Garcia can reestablish their prospect status. They have had a strange couple of years but seemed to be able to pitch at high levels for their age.

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  26. Collier followed by Jonathan Villar at this point for me. Shreve could very well be the best prospect. It is just hard to rank him without seeing him play.

    One other note (from Marfis’ comment): I think you are underrating Collier. He is not a little guy. He is 6’2″ and will fill out to 200+ pounds. He is more of a classic corner OF with power and some speed. His tools are fine. He obviously needs to improve his hit tool, but he is only 18.

    As for Villar. I also like him around this part of the list. You are overrating his athleticism however. His tools comp from scouts is more Jason Donald than anyone else. He steals bases because he is smart, not because he has plus speed. If he makes it he will be one of those guys that does a little of everything. Decent but not superior defense. Mid-range 10-15 HR power. 20 SBs and a .280 average. That is kind of the ultimate Jason Donald projection as well.

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  27. Can we finally get Zach Collier?? He was young for both Lakewood and Williamsport last year and it showed. I think he’ll do a lot better this year and maybe end up in Clearwater although that means some other outfielders will have to advance.
    I agree with everyone else in that Villar is the next guy.

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  28. One thing I feel the need to point out…

    For those of you saying “we are loaded in A-ball” or “there are still interesting guys left” …. There’s nothing at all unique about the Philly system in that regard. Every system has tons of prospects in low A who still have promise b/c they are young, haven’t faced tougher competition, haven’t gotten injured yet, etc…

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  29. Collier and Hewitt were both lottery tickets that were gonna take several years regardless. I wouldn’t write either off yet.

    I’d like to see Collier, Shreve, Hudson, Dugan, Schwimer and Rodriguez all make the top 30 here.

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  30. If Villar has 15-20 HR power potential, he should already be on the ballot. I voted for him this round without ever hearing anything about that kind of power potential.
    Villar should definitely be ahead of everyone left on the list.

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  32. I agree with what Baxter says, and part of that is what makes this upcoming year so exciting – there are so many guys ranked 10-40 that have the potential to surprise on the upside that you have to think at least one or two of them will. I personally hope it’s Anthony Hewitt, considering all the flack he has taken and the fact that he’s going to be 21 in April (top prospects have usually shown something by then). This voting process has really opened my eyes to James, Rodriguez, Sanchez, and Villar. I would be pleasantly surprised if one of those guys broke out.

    I voted for Carpenter for previously stated reasons.

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  34. other-Villar

    Wouldve voted this awhile ago if Pettibone went a few spots earlier.

    Collier here is fine too. Looks like you might get another vote off between him and Shreve. Could be withing 1-2 votes of each other

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  35. I went with Shreve again. However, there’s still lots of talent down selected yet that could develop into very good players. As far as Chapman, I predict he makes a bullpen appearance in Philly this year. He’ll likely start at LHV based on his stats last year and then it just depends on the team’s health and his performance. I can see him making it as a long man who throws often.

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  36. John K-
    Its not necessarily true that every team is loaded at the A level. In recent years, the Phillies invested in young, high upside talent that they knew would take years to develop, in an effort to “get younger”. Realizing the major league club was stacked at nearly every position, they traded proximity to the majors for raw talent, that could be stashed in the minors for 6 years.

    Its a high risk/high reward approach that has made them famous(or infamous depending who you talk to) Although college players are more likely to reach the major leagues, high school players are more likely to become stars. I have no problem with this approach, but the value of it remains to be seen. However, it makes for an exciting lower level of the minors. Most of these players won’t make it, but it’d only takes a few of them to justify this drafting philosophy.

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  37. About Hewitt-
    Although Hewitt turns 21 soon, when he was drafted, he was a very raw 19 year old dominating weak competition. You cannot compare him to say, Anthony Gose, who, as a 17 year old, was playing longer seasons against much stronger opponents. At the age of 21, you’ll have a pretty good idea about Gose, but Hewitt will take at least another two or three years.

    I can’t believe Hewitt has not even appeared on the radar screen yet. He might have a lot to learn, but he also has more raw potential than anyone in this system. If he ever figures out how to hit a curveball, he could annually hit 40+ home runs. Even if he has a 2% chance of making it, the chances of anyone else becoming an elite player aren’t much better. I’m not saying he should be on the list yet(maybe as a wild-card at #30) but the fact that he’s not even a candidate yet reflects the depth of our system as much as his struggles.

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  39. Shreve on upside. Due to injury he gets a chance to mature in a professional setting. He will be a bit behind but could make that up with a pair a good seasons.
    Collier probably has the same upside but his stock was hurt by his initial play.
    Though I tend to like prospects closer to the majors I agree that Carpenter and Mayberry are likely just bench players though I do not have a problem with them in the Top30 as both have earned an opportunity in the Majors.

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  42. Other: Travis Mattair — mark my words will have a break out season now that he is finally getting older. We have to remember he just turned 21.

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  46. i’m trying to figure out if whether or not dugan (the top pick from the draft) isnt on the list at this point is a good thing or a bad thing

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  47. Should just make Shreve 24 and Collier 25 to speed things up and add Sanchez and Villar to the next round

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  48. Just saw this on Phillies site:

    Came across Baseball America’s top 10 Phillies prospects for 2000:
    1. SS Jimmy Rollins
    2. RHP Brett Myers
    3. RHP Brad Baisley
    4. RHP Ryan Madson
    5. 2B Chase Utley
    6. SS Anderson Machado
    7. CF Reggie Taylor
    8. OF Eric Valent
    9. RHP Brandon Duckworth
    10. OF Marlon Byrd

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  49. So how did they do in 2000:
    1Rollins -.274 12 hr 69rbi 24sb/called up to Phils batted .321
    2.Myers 13-7 3.18 ERA at low A
    3.Baisley 3-9 3.74 at Clearwater
    4Madson 14-5 2.59 low A
    5Utley .307 2hr 22 rbi at high rookie Batavia
    6.Machado .248 2 hr 37 rbi 32 sb CLW/REA only 19 at time
    7.Taylor .275 15hr 43 rbi 21 sb AAA
    8.Valent .258 22hr 90 rbi at Reading
    9.Duckworth 13-7 3.16 at Reading
    10Byrd .309 17hr 93 rbi 41sb at low A

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  50. There were a few guys further down the top 30 who made it to the majors from that year’s minor leaguers — Carlos Silva, Johnny Estrada, Jason Michaels, and Nick Punto.

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  51. Silva 8-13 3.57 CLW
    Estrada .295 12 hr 42 rbi at Rea
    Michaels .295 10 hr 74 rbi at Rea
    Punto .254 5 hr 47 rbi 33 sb at REA

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  52. I realize how these things often end up playing out, but it’s difficult to imagine someone who may very well end up being a first ballot Hall of Famer (Utley), being 5th on a mediocre team’s prospect list.

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  54. That is a helluva top 10, based on reults. Would anyone give up the chance of a 10 for 10 on our top ten today for a guaranteed 5 guys making it and being in the range of a top setup guy to s pretty good starter to an all-star to a hall of famer. I would take that guarantee anytime. The wild success of that group and a couple other groups in adjacent years is why we are in the series every year.

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  55. Also, I think Baisley was the only one not to taste the majors (didn’t Machado get a cup of coffee with Cincy?).

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  56. Hmm, checked on Machado. He had 1 AB w Phils, batted .263 in 68 AB w 10 walks for Cincy in ’04 and then never got a chance after that. Went 0-12 one yr and 0-10 another. Not much of a chance. He must have suffered an injury that resulted in him being overmatched, because someone who fields as well as he did at SS would likely get more ABs to get comfortable and maybe hit ,250 with some walks (he drew a lot of walks in minors, I believe).

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  57. Baisley flamed out because of injury. When healthy, he was a very solid prospect.

    I don’t get the comment ‘5th best prospect on a weak team’. First, being a weak major league team speaks not at all to the strength of the farm. The Phillies farm was ranked 12th in baseball that season, almost cracking the top third. Second, how you rank Utley, depends upon how much credence you give to projection and the limited sample size of short-season ball. The write-up on Utley was very complementary about his offense, but questioned the D. It was not at all clear at the time that Utley could upgrade his D to nearly the extent that he has.

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  59. 5 players I am most interested/excited about for 2010… that are not in the Top 10:
    1. Jiwan James
    2. Brodie Colvin
    3. Colby Shreve
    4. Jonathan Villar
    5. Aaron Altherr

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  60. ” don’t get the comment ‘5th best prospect on a weak team’. First, being a weak major league team speaks not at all to the strength of the farm. The Phillies farm was ranked 12th in baseball that season, almost cracking the top third. Second, how you rank Utley, depends upon how much credence you give to projection and the limited sample size of short-season ball. The write-up on Utley was very complementary about his offense, but questioned the D. It was not at all clear at the time that Utley could upgrade his D to nearly the extent that he has.”

    You are missing my point. The point I was trying to make is that you have to take these “professional” rankings with a grain of salt. You can talk now about how great everyone thought our farm system was at the time, but I remember that era very well and people were, on the whole, unimpressed about the team, lukewarm about its minor league players (you are right that people were high on Baisley – I think we hoped he would be what J.A. Happ has become) and, on the whole, doubtful about the direction of the franchise. It also shows that, sometimes, you can form your own opinion about a player that has as much or more validity than those opinions expressed by the experts (honestly, I had no opinion about Utley one way or the other at the time, but as soon as I saw him play in the big leagues [when the projections were still iffy] and watched with awe at the intensity he showed on the field and the way he went about his business, I could tell there was something special there).

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  61. DiamondDerby, I remember Machado well. Interesting player with plate discipline, speed and defense. The problem was that his skill set would not translate to the majors. He hit .251 in his BEST minor league season. He couldn’t hit for power, so his batting eye just wasn’t going to be a major asset.

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  62. Machado’s problem wasn’t just lack of power, he had a lot of trouble making contact, and racked up Ks at a rate only justifiable for a power hitter. His .251 season at Reading was followed up with a .191 season the following year, at that was just about the end of him in the Phillies organizaion.

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  63. Posted this the last time, i see no reason not to post again:

    Write in vote – Matt Way

    I know he was drafted as a senior but the guy is only 22, put up a 2.43 era and 124/33 K/BB his senior year and then had eras of 1.67 and 3.11 in A- and A for us. Also had insanely nice splits with a 85/12 K/BB ratio over those two levels in 75 innings. What more does this guy have to do to land in our top 25? I’m keeping an eye on him this year, another possible Happ type guy.

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  64. Shreve is in the league. The way voters get excited for unproven high school arms makes me glad they don’t run our drafts.

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  65. PP had Shreve rated higher (prospect tiers) than most of the pitchers voted in on the list so far. It is not just the voters that have him high. I fully expect Shreve to in the top 20 of PP’s top 30 list.

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  66. There’s a nice piece of May on the Phillies’ offical site. The most interesting piece in it is:

    In a perfect world, May, who throws a fastball, curveball and changeup, will adjust to High Class A Clearwater quickly and become a candidate for a promotion to Double-A Reading midseason. But the Phillies are not going to rush him.

    I, for one, can’t imagine him moving up to AA this year. He already skipped a level but I guess if he dominates, you never know. I would normally take such statements with a grain of salt but as the official reporter of the Phillies (on their payroll) when Zolecki speaks, I listen.

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  67. If May pitched at Reading this year, it would not be the first time a top prospect skipped a few levels to AA. Brett Myers pitched at Reading when he was 20. I dont think he ever pitched High A. Phillipe Aumont pitched a few innings at AA last year at age 20.

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  68. I read that piece too. I don’t think they’re going to rush May, but if he proves himself ready for a promotion, I think he’ll get it, although it may take slightly longer than we would prefer (the Phillies have this theory, and it’s not a bad one, that prospects should, at some point struggle and work through their problems – as such, if he experiences difficulties at high A ball, they’ll want him to dominate before they promote him, which might mean he does not get to AA next year).

    My hunch is that he is going to blow away the competition at Clearwater and will only begin to be challenged at Reading. But he’s a very exciting prospect.

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  69. I first was on board pushing May to Reading but now agree there is no rush. Maybe if he does well he gets a couple starts at the end of the season at Reading. Reading will already have a lot of candidates to start the year; Flande, Worley, Aumont, Cisco, Cloyd, and Naylor.

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  70. Danno,
    I like Way’s numbers last year(6-4 2.39). I guess he starts at Clearwater? You also have to root for a pitcher from Alaska. He is probably #3 in the system for left handed starters behind Savery and Flande.

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  72. Bastardo I have as a bullpen guy. From what I’ve heard Bastardo has had a great winter league season. He will be our #2 lefty in Philly in the pen. Way can be #1 lefty starter in the minors by the end of 2010. Savery and Flande get the advantage for now.

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  73. Bastardo will be the #1 to start the year as Romero will still be recovering from injury. That means we’ll all get to see what he can bring on a regular basis. His stuff if well suited to the late relief role and his MiLB splits show him to be pretty tough against RHB as well. He will be hopefully saving the team almost $4 million a year once Romero is gone.

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