Jon Pettibone wins the runoff for #21, so he takes that spot with Yohan Flande sliding in at #22. There were a number of write in votes for #21, including Julio Rodriguez, John Mayberry Jr, Austin Hyatt, Michael Schwimer, and Jesus Sanchez. Rodriguez and Mayberry were written in before I believe, so I’ll go ahead and add those two guys to the voting this round. If you want to vote for someone not on the ballot, please vote other, and then in the comments type “OTHER – and your player here” so I can record it. Thanks.
01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21. Jon Pettibone, RHP
22. Yohan Flande, LHP
23.
Phuture Phillies 
Leandro Castro.
Next, I’ll write in Villar, then Lino Martinez.
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Other- mike cisco
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Castro – should have been 10-12 Spots ago.
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Still voting Collier. 2 years younger than Castro. Better tools and discipline at the plate. The hitting will come.
The next other player that should be added is Jonathan Villar. Still a few spots from where he should land, but he is potentially our only middle infield prospect that can both field and hit.
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OTHER – Jesus Sanchez
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I voted for Mayberry, but did so somewhat reluctantly. Our options now are near ready, lower ceiling players and high-upside players who are just starting out. Very hard to guage.
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Hudson
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L. Castro. I think he should have gone a few picks ago. Good to see Rodriguez added to the mix.
I’d be happy if either of Villar or Sanchez were added next.
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Other: Jonathan Villar
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Castro – should be a landslide.
I’m happy to vote for someone other then Pettibone.
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I voted Castro. He can work in here. I don’t believe that Collier exceeds in physical ability. Castro has big arm, runs well, and has hit better so far. I would think Collier should be rotated at OF in Lakewood this season, I would have him 4th behind James in CF, Castro in RF, and Hewitt in LF. I would have Singleton up there to do most of the DH’ing and alternating with Ruf at 1B. Also I would think some of the other DH’ing , when Singleton is at 1B,would be from the Barnes and Buschini rotation at 3B, and when Valle rests at Catcher. I say James and Castro should play a bit more than Collier and Hewitt, so Collier may be shorted in AB’s at his expected assignment to Lakewood. And don’t leave him at Williamsport because I got Altherr, Hudson, and Domingo Santana there with Dugan sliding to 1B. So I think Collier will mark time a bit next season.
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After struggling at Reading in 2008, Drew Carpenter had a very solid season at Lehigh Valley pitching 156 innings with a 3.35 ERA, and he’s still only 24. The last mid-tier prospect to be written off after one sub-par season was JA Happ. Carpenter gets my vote here. He’s deserving of a top 25 spot IMO
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Went w/ Shreve. I like Castro and saw him at Wmpt this past year, put it seems his tools might project him as a 4th or 5th OF at best.
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I voted Carpenter, but he is trailing badly to the equally deserving Castro. Both are already a little too far down the list. Given his very good numbers last year, I’m not sure why Carpenter gets no love compared to a guy like Savery, whom he decidedly outpitched and who is half a year older. My theory is that too many fans downgrade severely for a guy being an emergency major league fill-in and weight those 11 IP a lot higher than a good body of minor league work.
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Also went with Carpenter at this point. He certainly rates better than Savery.
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Other: Michael Schwimer
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carp is older than savery, but other than that i agree with you allentown
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I’m continuing to vote for Castro. This could be biggest separation in terms of ratio of votes between winner and second place since Singleton at #13.
Regarding Carpenter, while I agree that he is better than Stutes, Savery, and Flande, at 24 on my list, I don’t like any of them all that much and still have Sanchez, Schwimer, Villar, and Hewitt, ahead of them all. I see very little similarity between Carpenter and Happ. Carpenter trails Happ’s minor league stats significantly in K/9, HR/IP, H/IP, WHIP, and ERA. Carpenter has better BB/9, W/L% and more pitches in his arsenal to learn and perfect. Happ turned the corner at 25, the age Carpenter will be this season, so this season will be key to showing if Carpenter has AAA or MLB talent.
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Other – Schwimer
It’s kinda nice to see that we’re into the 20s and there are still some quality guys left – Sanchez, Schwim, Castro and some high upside guys.
It’s looking like Mattair may not even get a sniff at the top 30. That’s a shame. This time last year, I was a huge booster of his.
– Jeff
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other-schwimmer
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I have to agree with ken45 here: Carpenter and Happ aren’t very alike at all. Happ is left-handed, throws harder than Carpenter (Carpenter’s velocity is decidedly below-average for a right hander), and struck out far more over his minor league career (9.7 K/9, as opposed to Carpenter’s 6.6 K/9).
Carpenter’s 2009 was a nice bounceback campaign, but with the low strikeout totals, the fringy stuff, and the flyball tendency, I think he tops out as a long reliever. I’d love to be proven wrong, but I’ve got him off my Top 30.
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By the way, probably beating a dead horse here, but I voted Mayberry. He is what he is, but a guy who can spot start against lefties, has some power, and can play a solid corner outfield (and caddy for the Pat Burrells of the world) is a valuable piece. He belongs somewhere on this Top 30 — personally, I’ve got him at #17 on mine.
I like Castro, but his plate discipline is a huge red flag (career 4.2% BB, 18.4% K). That’s a very difficult thing to change, and will get him eaten alive by pitchers at upper levels if he can’t rectify it. I’ve got him at #19, but some caution is necessary.
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Castro was a bit old for a dominican prospect at that level, and while he’s shown a little pop, he’s also got little in the way of plate discipline. But at the #23 spot, with reportedly good tools, he’s certainly appropriate.
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seems like there’s less and less point of accepting write-ins since the current list would fill out the top 30. maybe since the addition of names to the poll is a bit random it makes sense, but it seems like there’s little benefit.
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I went with Shreve again = big potential if healthy. As for Castro getting at bats ahead of Collier, its silly to think that. Collier has a higher upside than Castro plus there is the law of the draft pick which means that Hewitt and Collier will get more chances to fail than all the other guys not taken in the first round. There are certainly plenty of outfielders in our lower system that are deserving of at bats. Ruf hit at both stops last year and will definitely play 1B somewhere this season but where. It will depend on what they do with Singleton. If he goes to Lakewood, which is possible, then Ruf will go to Clearwater which is also possible. I think lots of guys are going to get released this spring because of the compression. Its definitely an up or out kind of business and when someguys get double bumped, they’re taking someone’s job from the year before.
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I wasn’t necessarily implying that Carp and Happ can be compared statistically or talent wise, just that Happ was also disregarded after having a down year at AAA in 2007. I don’t project Carp as a top or mid-rotation guy by any means, but I don’t think he can be dismissed as a Top 25 prospect either. At 24 (25 in May I believe), 2010 presents a good opportunity for him to repeat his 2009 numbers and climb the prospect ladder. His ceiling is likely a long reliever with perhaps a few spots starts here and there
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Glad Pettibone made it through. I agree with ken45 and PhillyFriar on Carpenter, but the fact that he has contributed to the MLB team and is likely to do so again in some capacity over the next couple of years makes me rate him more highly than most players at low A. Most of the guys on this list will never even get a cup of coffee.
He’ll probably never be a 5th starter, but I can see him having some success out of the bullpen. I’m probably weighting the inning I saw him pitch on TV at the AAA All-Star game too heavily, but he was excellent against some quality hitters.
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Mayberry — has shown big time power, speed on the base paths, and range in the outfield. I still think Manuel can help to unleash his potential. Most people on this board had him as a top 15 prospect last year. I still think he can be an effective 4th outfielder, which to me has a lot of value.
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Speaking of beating dead horses, Mayberry is no longer considered a rookie by MLB standards (he was on the roster for more than 45 days), so I didn’t include him on my list and won’t be voting for him. I may be the only one, but just making the point that I didn’t consider him (if anybody really cares!)
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Once again foe Austin Hyatt ….best numbers of anyone not on your list
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CHONE predicts a line of .239/.302/.431 for Mayberry. He’s already 26 years old, so there is almost no room for an increase in production. If he were CERTAIN to stick as a fourth outfielder it would be one thing. But with Ben Francisco and Ross Gload on the team, he’s firmly ticketed for AAA. Eligible or no, I can’t see him in the top 30. I had him somewhere around 40-45, personally.
(This is completely off topic, but in searching for players with similar batting lines I came across Lee May. May often produced OBPs under .310 with 25+ home runs in Baltimore. Given Earl Weaver’s devotion to OBP, I’m really surprised he kept May out there on a daily basis.
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What has Kelly Dugan done in his first year to be on the list ? Can you say ” Jeff Jackson “
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Woah Dom, cool the jets. Give the kid some time. Obviously some of the Phils scouts liked what they saw, so let’s see how it plays out.
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Mayberry lost his rookie status. He should not be on the list. If he still had rookie status ,I would vote for him though.
On Collier vs Castro: What about Collier says he has more upside than Castro? Collier was supposed to be an advanced hitter. He did not hit in A- or SS ball. He is not projected as a power hitter and is not projected to have great speed as his body fills out. What “tools” does he have, that guys keep refering?
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Certainly the scouts liked him, but do we award top 30 rankings just on that. He didn’t have the reputation as a mega-talent going into the draft, was not a first rounder, so I think he has to show a little more first.
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Write in vote – Matt Way
since names like Carpenter and Mayberry are coming up, i’m bringing up someone i feel is more deserving – Matt Way. I know he was drafted as a senior but the guy is only 22, put up a 2.43 era and 124/33 K/BB his senior year and then had eras of 1.67 and 3.11 in A- and A for us. Also had insanely nice splits with a 85/12 K/BB ratio over those two levels in 75 innings. What more does this guy have to do to land in our top 25? I’m keeping an eye on him this year, another possible Happ type guy.
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Wow, I forgot about Matt Way. Why aren’t people higher on him? Great peripherals as Danno just highlighted. Also 0 home runs allowed in 37 innings at Lakewood.
I’ll second the write in for Matt Way.
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If I recall correctly, you had also mentioned that BA goes strictly by at bats and innings in compiling their list, so Mayberry will probably make their handbook. Whether or not we do this list by rookie eligibility is immaterial to me as long as everyone’s working off of the same standards. And I’d assume since PP put Mayberry on the ballot that he’s eligible for this.
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Steve Says:
February 4, 2010 at 9:58 AM
After struggling at Reading in 2008, Drew Carpenter had a very solid season at Lehigh Valley pitching 156 innings with a 3.35 ERA, and he’s still only 24. The last mid-tier prospect to be written off after one sub-par season was JA Happ. Carpenter gets my vote here.
Right on brother. Carpenter is the new Happ. The main reason Happ was down in ’07 was incredible mismanagement by Russel and Dubee.
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Shreve again. He could become a valuable commodity by year’s end.
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First off, the Phillies’ outfield situation has no bearing on Mayberry’s value as a prospect. Prospects are supposed to be assessed without regard to openings on their major league club (e.g. Ryan Howard wasn’t a lesser prospect because he was blocked by Jim Thome).
And yup, CHONE isn’t pretty for Mayberry. But — and maybe I’m cherry picking stats here — he’s a real threat against left-handed pitching, as he’s shown throughout his minor league career (.280/.354/.495) and even in his brief major league call-up (.243/.263/.568). Sean Smith’s TotalZone likes his fielding, and from what I can recall, he looked pretty good as an outfielder.
Given that, I feel pretty confident he has value as a guy who slugs .500 against lefties, and can fill in in either outfield corner. That kind of player belongs on here somewhere, unless you’re focused completely on upside at the expense of floor — in which case, you should remove the entire Worley/Flande/Stutes/Savery contingent as well.
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FWIW, Mayberry didn’t crack BA’s Top 30, though he does appear on their prospect depth chart. I don’t consider the MLB club’s needs when assessing a prospect.
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Other- Jesus Sanchez.
I have him just a bit above Leandro Castro. Let’s at least get him on the ballot for next time. He had a helluva year for a conversion project.
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I’ll be voting for Sanchez next too. Even though converted from catching, at 21 he was age appropriate and had an excellent season in A ball not even saying “for someone in his first season as a pitcher.” As I recall, Ricky Bottalico was a also converted catcher who started his professional pitching career at age 21.
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