It’s always fun to kind of speculate on potential lineups and rotations, so I figured we’d start in Allentown. Things could change of course, whether it be because of a trade or an injury, but this is my guess;
Kyle Kendrick
JA Happ
Scott Mathieson
(filler)
(filler)
I don’t think the Phillies are 100% sold on Kyle Kendrick, and probably feel that he could use another half year or year in the minors to refine his stuff. I say this because they are aggressively pursuring (or apparently pursueing) a number of free agents, and they already have 4 starters on the roster in Hamels, Myers, Moyer and Eaton. Kendrick is likely to be the first callup when the need arises, and it will most certainly arise. Happ seems like the easy choice in the 2 slot, and my guess is that Mathieson will start, if anything just to get innings before competing for a bullpen slot. The last two spots will probably be minor league vets. There is really NO reason to rush Carrasco or Outman to 3A, as both struggled at Reading.
Thoughts? Did I miss someone obvious?
Phuture Phillies 
There is no way that Kendrick starts in the minors. I would be willing to gaurentee that. He might end up there if he struggles but I would bet any money that he starts the season in the rotation.
Have you considered that they may not be sold on Eaton and his bum shoulder? That is why they are seeking another pitcher.
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i agree with dan, no way kendrick doesnt start right away for the phils. I’m thinking they’ll keep eaton in the pen at first or put him on the DL for his shoulder for a while.
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I’ll have to concur with dan. I’m sure Kendrick’s low strikeout totals give the Phillies some pause, but I think it’s Eaton’s bad shoulder (and underwhelming outlook anyway) that have the Phils pursuing another pitcher. In an ideal world, Kendrick would get some more seasoning in the minors, but our dearth of pitching basically necessitates that he start in the bigs.
What’s the deal with Durbin? Would he have to make it through waivers to pitch in AAA? If so, I’m sure someone would take a gamble on him, and we’d have to leave him in long relief if we wanted to hold onto him. But in the unlikely event we can demote him and keep him, starting in the AAA rotation would be the best thing for the Durbinator.
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There is no way on God’s green earth that the Phillies are planning to start Kendrick in the minors. The plan is for him to be the number 4 or 5 starter. They are trying to acquire a fifth starter as insurance because: (a) Adam Eaton may be hurt; (b) Adam Eaton may continue to be horrible; or (c) Kendrick may unexpectedly regress to the point where he can no longer be a major league starter.
Unless things really unravel, Kendrick will start the year with the big team and he deserves every inning they give him. I know he doesn’t rack up the Ks (at least not yet), but I think he began moving in a better direction as the year went on. Furthermore, you’ll never see a 22 year old with better composure than Kendrick. The kid has ice water running through his veins – he’s the anti-Floyd.
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WOOHOO ANTI FLOYD!!!!!!!
i also believe there is no chance that kendrick is anywhere other than the 4th or 5th starters slot for the phils this opening day
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“Kendrick may unexpectedly regress to the point where he can no longer be a major league starter.”
I think it’s a stretch to call regression on Kendrick’s part unexpected. historically speaking, pitchers are virtually never successful with K rates like his, and a low K rate on a rookie pitcher is often a prime indicator that he’s due for struggles.
I agree that the Phillies are almost certainly going to put him in the ML rotation, but I’m not too confident of the results.
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I got the impression last year that the Phillies seem to think of Fabio Castro as a potential starter so it wouldn’t suprise me to see him in the rotation at Allentown. Also, look for one of these guys to fill the final two spots: Ron Chiavacci, Kris Wilson, Jason Anderson, Heath Totten, Zach Segovia.
Here’s my guess at an unimpressive Allentown rotation:
Happ, Castro, Chiavacci, Wilson, Segovia
If Mathieson does start in Allentown it will be short lived…he’ll end up in the Phillies pen.
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I think a lot of this will depend on Eaton. They’ve made offers to Wolf and Kuroda, which even if Eaton is hurt gives them 5 starters without Kendrick. There’s no indication to me that they are 100% sold on Kendrick starting the year in the rotation. He was thrust into it out of necessity. He still has options left, he’s only 23, and he’s likely to regress based on his peripheral numbers. I think he might be the #5, but I think there’s also a chance he starts in Allentown.
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Hahaha Anti-Floyd, thats rich.
And Kendricks strikeout totals don’t bother me at all, he’s a groundball inducing machine… I just wish we had a legit 3rd basemen to field behind him.
Either way, a less effective Kendrick is better than any Adam Eaton… maybe we should send him down to the minors to refine his stuff. “Throws Darts” my ass.
I’m also more worried that Jamie Moyer’s tank is running on empty. I have endless amounts of respect for the guy, but his 78 mph fastballs and 43 year-old arm can’t carry him much further. The phils might be better off just making him a pitching coach.
Not to mention no one knows how Myers is going to handle being in the rotation again.
I’ve kinda been rambling, but in conclusion I’d say there are question marks all over the rotation, but Kyle Kendrick is the least of them.
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Kendrick should be the Phillies 4th or 5th starter.
Kendrick was NOT a mirage, but no way is he ready to be part of a Big Three in the starting rotation.
The Phillies are almost there. Hamels, Myers and…?
Depth is always a problem. The top two may not reach 200 innings, so it is imperative to find more support ahead of Kendrick and Moyer on the depth chart.
Someone in the same neighborhood as Hamels and Myers. Someone like Dontrelle Willis, who’s awful last season WAS a mirage.
Eaton should have to pitch his way into the rotation, based on results, which means he may begin the season in long relief. His paycheck reads the same either way–the important thing is not to bleed runs.
Hamels
Myers
?
Moyer
Kendrick
Eaton
Durbin
Mathieson
Castro
Happ
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Philadelphia Phillies
Signed: RHP Ron Chiavacci, RHP Matt Childers, RHP Kris Wilson, 2B Casey Smith, 1B Andy Tracy, OF Michael Restovich, OF Brandon Watson http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=669
Looks like the Iron Pigs are going to have some pop in the lineup with Tracy and Restovich.
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I agree with you about Kendrick, even though I don’t like it. Anyone who doesn’t think this will happen if they sign another starter just doesn’t know the Phillies or most major league teams at all. If they have 6 healthy starters at the end of SP who is the logical odd man out, the 24 year old with options. No way they release Eaton or send down(they probably can’t anyway) whoever they sign in the off season,so unless he’s capable of pitching out of the bullpen, its pretty obvious what will happen.
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I think the Phillies will give Kendrick every chance to win a spot in the rotation but also agree there is a strong chance he ends up back at AAA. As people have discussed, it is hard to succeed with his low K rate. It is not the worst thing if the team signs a 6th starter and Kendrick gets a little more seasoning time.
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Duh – Kyle Kendrick is NOT a “groundball inducing machine”. You know who produces more ground outs than Kendrick? Adam Eaton. And he’s not a grounder pitcher, either. JC Romero is a groundball pitcher, which is good because he walks so many guys he needs the double play.
I suspect Kendrick starts next season as a Phillie. And, much to my chagrin, I suspect his career is going to quickly resemble that of guys like Sandy Vance. I’d be happy to be wrong about this, but I honestly believe that Kendrick was lucky, and little else.
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I believe the only way Kendrick starts 2008 in the minors is if he’s cover-your-eyes awful in Spring Training. A guy like Myers or Hamels can shrug off the exhibition season; the Kendricks can’t. If his ST ERA is north of 7, he’ll start in Allentown.
I predict the IronPigs’ rotation will be Happ/Castro/Mathieson/Chiavacci/Segovia. Obviously, the first three are viable fill-in options for the big club, though Mathieson is still likely ticketed for the Phillies bullpen and might pitch in relief for the Pigs to prepare for that.
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While Kendrick is unlikely to start in AAA I do agree that it is a possibility. In my opinion, Hamels, Myers and probably Moyer are the only 3 guarenteed a rotation spot. After that, Kendrick, Eaton and whomever else the Phils bring in will battle it out for the 4-5 spots in Spring Training. Ideally they bring in a Wolf, Colon or Kuroda and have 3 pitchers battling for 2 spots. Or even better 4 for those 2 since anyone outside of Hamels and Myers is a big question mark at this point. The more insurance, the better.
Also to be considered is that early on in the season a 5th starter is rarely needed. So it is entirely possible that Kendrick starts in AAA to get regular turns pitching until he’s needed on the big club.
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I think the Phils are trying to get another starter because of all the reasons already mentioned. Moyer is old, Kendrick is young, and Eaton looked hurt. I wouldn’t be surprised if Eaton needs surgery because he’s much better than he showed here in the 2nd half last year. He’s no star but I do think he’s a solid innings eater that should win double figures each year he’s healthy. Was he heathy?? I agree with the comments about Kendrick. He’s a very poised young man who pitched out of lots of trouble last year. Will he be as fortunate this year? Moyer pitched great at the end of the season last year but really struggled in the middle which is not unusual for an old arm. Will he be totally done next year? These are three large question marks that the Phils don’t have answers to either but they’re being smart in recognizing the risks and trying to get another starter now. Its not impossible that Kendrick starts in the minors if Eaton looks healthy, Moyer looks young, and the new addition (Wolf, Colon, etc) is healthy. What are the odds that they stay healthy all year? Zero. Kendrick will definitely be up in the majors at some point even if he starts as an Iron Pig. I saw the Phils signed Brandon Watson formerly of the Nationals. He and the kid they signed from Tampa should fight it out for the 5th OF spot, after they sign a lefthanding guy like Jenkins or Wilkerson as the 4th OF.
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At this point, Kendrick stacks up as the #3 starter on the big Phillies, after Hamels and Myers.
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I understand what everyone is saying about Kendrick and the strikeouts – it’s a good point and with most pitchers I think it spells almost certain doom. But Kendrick was not a two month success story for the Phils last year. He pitched most of the year with the team and was extremely consistent for the entire time. He was never particularly dominant, but he was almost always competent and always kept the team in the game. The numbers (3.87 ERA and 10-4 record) say he was their second best starter last year and those numbers are accurate – with the exception of the playoffs, he was arguably the pitcher you most wanted to see on the mound after Hamels.
There are other things to like about Kendrick. First, his attitude. It was clear very early on that Kendrick was confident that he belonged and he was never phased by anything – ever. He’s very mentally tough. Second, he has good (not great) velocity and I think there’s a decent chance that he will throw even harder over time. Third, he’s a great athlete – this bodes well for his continuing development.
Sure, it’s possible he could collapse and stink up the joint next year – in which case, they will be quick to demote him. But if, as I expect, he continues to be competent, there will be a place for him in the rotation. I do not expect him to disappoint us.
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Not to repeat myself here, but on another note… does anyone know if Durbin can start the season in AAA without having to clear waivers?
If so, I would expect him to be a part of this rotation. If not, I guess he fights it out to be the Phillies’ long relief guy.
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I also have to believe that Kendrick is penciled in as a major league starter. You can’t pencil him in to Allentown until they sign two starting pitchers.
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JD Durbin can not start the year in AAA. He’s out of options, meaning he would have to be waived, same as last year. I picture him as a utility-type reliever, maybe even a 6th/7th starter, should they sign someone (Karudo (sp?)).
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I’m sure the Phillies will give Durbin a chance to win a spot in the pen, but if he struggles in the spring don’t be surprised if he gets “Germanoed”
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Yeah, he’s out of options, meaning he has to clear waivers every time he’s sent down.
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I can’t see how Kendrick would be better off in AAA. Isn’t he the type of ‘high-ceiling’ guy Mike Arbuckle talks about all the time? Kendrink already has pitchability, but lacks the hard fastball. If he gains 20 lbs, he should add a couple of mph to the fastball. At least that’s how the theory goes according to the Phillies. He won’t eat better in AAA.
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My guess at Allentown’s rotation to start the season: Happ, Mathieson, Segovia, Chiavacci, Childers.
Kendrick starts the season with the big club.
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Kendrick really doesn’t have a high ceiling these days. His ceiling is probably as a middle of the rotation starter as he lacks the fastball to really dominate. That is his ceiling. His minor league history suggests he is more of a bottom of the rotation/middle reliever type. When drafted, as with many high school arms, there was the hope that he would develop a better fastball as his body matured. Some of that happened, but I think he got better quickly because his control and 3-pitch mix matured at the same time. His pitchability to use a term major league scouts throw around.
A big question is whether he can continue to prosper. He has the type of middling stuff where he has to be almost perfect with his control to survive in the majors. I am not saying he will definitely fail – just that there is a large chance he will have to be sent down at some point in 2008. If the team signs another starter AND Eaton is healthy and pitching well you could easily see the team use the option if Kendrick is struggling in Spring Training. This is not necessarily a bad thing. He should be handled with care just like any young pitcher with middling stuff.
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Yeah andy, that’s kind of where I was coming from. If you acquire 2 more starters, Kendrick is in AAA as your insurance policy, and based on the health of guys like Hamels, Myers, and Eaton, you’re going to need him at some point.
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Beyond Hamels and Myers, the Phillies’ rotation scares me
at this point. Even the health of Hamels is a big concern
to me. Under those circumstances, I would think that
management gives Kendrick a good shot at making the
rotation–but I doubt that he will ever be more than a #5. I
hope they give Durbin a good shot too. He’s got good
stuff and is still young enough to deserve a good look. I
would guess that Mathieson will start out in the minors. If
they could sign both Wolf and Kuroda I’d feel alot better
about the Phillies’ chances in ’08.
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I absolutely think Kendrick opens the season as the number 5 starter. The Phillies will DL BEaton until he gets his head out of his ass and remembers how to throw a baseball. There’s no reason in my mind why they’d send him down. Who cares about K rate? The kid knows how to pitch. That should be all the Phillies need to know to keep him up.
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Thinking outside the box, I never imagined that Kendrick could start in AAA next year after winning 10 games. With his strikeout rate that is where he should be for his own good developmentally. Hard to see that that will happen, but a great unexpected post. Thanks.
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JA Happ
Scott Mathieson
Fabio Castro
J.D. Durbin (if is passes through waivers)
Kendrick / Filler
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How can anyone think Moyer at 45 is a more viable option than Kendrick. Aside from his last 2 starts Moyer’s second half of the season was poor plus he will be 1 year older.
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I know there are a lot of good reasons to write off a guy with such a low K total, but there are a select number of guys who get away with it. Wang is probably the most notable example – although he throws a sinker to induce groundballs. I think Kendrick has the job until the peripherals catch up with the wins and era. Kendrick does induce his fair share of groundballs as well though (18th in the NL among pitchers with 100+ IPs, although well short of Wang’s numbers).
Thinking about it a little more – a decent comparable player for Kendrick might be Carlos Silva who Kyle is close to in K rate and ground balls. Silva walks fewer people, but Kendrick has demonstrated that he is not afraid of contract. Silva’s career era sits at 4.31 (and he could command 10 million per this offseason). I will take that in the 3-4 spot in the rotation.
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I believe the following:
* the Phillies will acquire “1” more starter (#3)
* that they are looking to trade for a legitimate 3rd baseman (e.g.,: Crede, Blalock, Beltre, Tejada, etc.) and that Eaton will be part of the deal, as a salary dump &/or equalizer
* Kendrick is penciled in as the #4 or #5 starter, dependent upon his spring training performance
* Allentown’s rotation: Happ, Mathieson, Castro & 2 “fillers”
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A pitcher can be just as successful as a high strike out pitcher when he throws strikes (low number of walks) and has a high groundball ratio. Kendrick fits the bill.
Too often people don’t look at results and only look at stats. Why would you send down to the minors a guy who won games for you and did not give up runs in over 20 starts because of one stat. Give me a break. That is probably one of the biggest flaws in scouting today.
I heard an a long time ago with Richie Ashburn where he basically said too often today scouts look at isolated stats rather than results. You don’t send a guy to the minors who won games because he does not strikeout people. IF the phillies did that I then would be convinced they lost their mind.
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I sense were getting close to a major philosophical debate here. My only real point is, guys like Kendrick don’t succeed in large numbers. If you don’t strike anyone out, you’re relying on a good deal of luck and your defense. When the ball hits the bat, the pitcher basically loses control of what happens. Kendrick has to be incredibly precise with his command, if he misses by an inch, his fastball turns into a batting practice fastball, and guys will tee it up. He has excellent control, he gets a decent amount of groundballs, but he’s not near the same group as Fausto Carmona and Wang, in terms of guys who don’t strike out a lot of guys but get a ton of groundballs.
Kendrick’s stuff might get better, or his actual numbers might catch up to his peripheral numbers.
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I’ve never bought into the argument that when the ball leaves the bat the outcome is only luck. Pitchers jam hitters and break their bats. They have movement on pitches that can cause hitters to not hit the ball squarely. They can have batters bailing at the plate or reaching for pitches.
Since physics describes the real world, there is symmetry in life as well as in physics. It has always struck me as extremely simplistic for some stats theorists to say strikeouts don’t matter to hitters but are the be all and end all to pitchers. If a pitcher has no control over what happens to a batted ball, then neither does the hitter. It then becomes all Ks, walks, HRs, and luck/fielding.
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Let’s be honest, without Kendrick the Phillies don’t win the division last season. Kyle showed tremendous poise and courage in the middle of a tense stretch run. The only stat that truly matters is wins. Kendrick has one skill that is essentially unteachable: mental toughness. He deserves to be in the rotation on pure merit. Like it or not, the Phillies don’t have 5 better choices. No one reached 200 innings last season, a good indication that the rotation was in turmoil. Depth remains a problem, so how can the Phillies afford to coddle him even if they wanted to?
No doubt he’ll hit a rough patch at some point in ’08, but the Phillies just don’t have the depth to justify demoting him to AAA unless he falls apart completely. Personally, I don’t see it. I think he will continue to give the Phillies a chance to win most nights he pitches, which is all you can ask from a 4th or 5th starter. Another 10 wins seem well within his reach even if they do acquire a legitimate #3 starter.
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They don’t have 5 better options now. That may not be the case in a month or 2 months. Wins are important, but future performance has nothing to do with his win total in 2007. If his peripherals don’t improve, it’s very likely that his “real” numbers like ERA and wins will suffer greatly. There are always anomalies, and he could very well be 1, but you rarely ever see a starting pitcher who strikes out 4 guys per 9 innings being anything more than replacement level.
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I see the numbers and I agree that K/IP is a telling stat, but there is a reason besides luck that Kendrick was so consistent. I would be more skeptical if he had several horrible outings where he fell apart and beat himself, but for the most part he was the same guy every night out. He went 6 or more innings in 15 of his 20 starts, a tremendous achievement for a rookie down the stretch. Rarely did he seem out of control of the game or situation. He made a lot of big pitches in critical situations and fielded his position very well.
Perhaps just as important as K/IP is IP/Start. Kendrick saved the bullpen on many a night and went 10-4 in the process. There’s just no call to demote him unless the wheels come off.
I believe the Phillies will acquire another starter, but even so, Kendrick should start over Eaton. If Kendrick stumbles badly, then Eaton or Durbin or another pitcher should be given a chance to step into his role, but for now, Kendrick deserves the benefit of the doubt.
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But the problem is, unless you put Eaton on the DL or in the bullpen, there’s no other place for him. Kendrick has options, so he can shuttle back and forth without the Phillies having to make a decision via trade or waivers. I know it’s not popular, everyone still has a warm, fuzzy feeling from what Kendrick did, but I think just expecting him to replicate his 2007 is being really overly optimistic.
My point was pretty simple. We’re going to need a 6th starter at some point, thats almost guaranteed. You can’t option Durbin down, you can’t option Eaton down. If they sign two starters, they’ll have 5 without even counting Eaton and without counting Kendrick. From a roster management point of view, using Kendrick as your 6th/insurance starter makes the most sense. I know most people will be disappointed by that if it happens, but it makes the mos sense in terms of managing the roster.
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Anti-Floyd: Read this post about Floyd.
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I understand your concern with options, but Eaton works just fine in the bullpen until a need arises for him to start, ie, an injury or, if he dominates in Spring Training. Durbin can open the season in the Pen, too, as long as he stays effective.
My feeling is, never let roster options stand in the way of building your best starting rotation, especially when you’re a contender. You can always use the DL as a placeholder until things work themselves out, a tactic which Gillick used several times last season. Right now, the Phillies are simply better with Kendrick in the rotation.
These things have a way of sorting themselves out. The Phillies used 13 different starting pitchers in 2007; unless Kendrick is hurt or becomes suddenly ineffective, he’s going to start a lot of games for the Phillies next season. I think you do more harm than good demoting him in Spring because of options, especially since they will need him at some point no matter what. His confidence is high and they should ride it out until performance dictates otherwise.
The worst argument I’ve heard (not yours) for starting Eaton over Kendrick is salary. Eaton will be paid the same whether he starts or not. In economics, Eaton is what’s known as a “sunk cost”, which basically means the money is already spent and should not factor into decisions about playing time since there is no way to recover that money either way (besides a trade).
Meanwhile, a lot hinges on whether or not the Phillies will be able to acquire a true #3. Wolf is a risky 4 or 5, Lohse is a 4, Kuroda is a risky 4 or 5…If the Phillies can get a hold of just one more Big Three type starter they will be in good shape. Otherwise, all they are doing is adding depth, which would help, but not enough. It irritates me that they don’t seem to be going for Johan Santana, who would instantly vault the Phillies into the pole position at the start of the NL race.
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I don’t think Eaton’s worth anything in trade but Kendrick is. How about a crazy idea? Kendrick, Victorino and a couple of top prospects for Santana. Rowand would have to be resigned and possibly another good outfielder.
But… It’s all about the money, stupid. Can’t afford the increase in salary. Would adding Santana increase the revenue enough? Would Hamels and Myers react favorably to the #1 starter? So many questions…
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Unfortunately, the Yankees could offer much more than that for Santana. I think any list would have to include Hamels for even Minnesota to listen. Would I trade Hamels? It all depends on what you think Hamels long term health will be. Can he pitch at least the next 5 years without significant time on the DL? Haren might be the better option.
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How can you even call Eaton a starter…that guy should be in A ball if not carrying Mitch Williams golf clubs in Camden
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Kendrick is the third best pitcher in the ML roster today after Hamels and Myers. He absolutely deserves a spot in the ML rotation. It is certainly possible that he could struggle at some point in the year. However, it is also possible that he could replicate and build on his 2007 performance. Either way, a contending team has to go with the pitchers who give it the best chance to win. Even if Wolf or Kuroda is acquired, Kendrick should start ahead of either of them. If a 6th starter is acquired, the competition in ST should be between the new pitcher and Eaton. The winner of that competition goes to the rotation and the loser goes to the bull-pen, as insurance in case one of the five in the rotation struggles or goes on the DL. In that scenario, the ML rotation should be:
Hamels
Myers
Kendrick
Moyer
Eaton / Wolf / Kuroda
If a legitimate #3 or #4 such as Silva or Lohse is signed instead of Wolf or Kuroda, the ML rotation should be:
Hamels
Myers
Kendrick
Silva / Lohse
Moyer
In that scenario, Eaton should go into the bull-pen.
In any case, there is no scenario in which Kendrick should go to AAA, unless he struggles badly for multiple starts during the year.
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Looks like we have no choice but to keep Kendrick in the ML rotation. As of right now, we have rule 5 drafted Travis Blackley, and signed Chad Durbin…
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