I’ve been slacking a bit, but I’ve been busy and haven’t had time to write as much as I’d like to, so I’m going to take suggestions for player profiles and then hopefully get cracking. So far, we’ve covered Michael Bourn, Edgar Garcia, Brett Harker, Dan Brauer, Andrew Carpenter, Fabio Castro, and Mike Costanzo. Who’s next?
Monthly Archives: March 2007
Looking for a few contributors
First off, I know I’ve said it in the past, but I’ll say it again, thank you for stopping in every day and checking out my site, and thank you to those who have linked me from their sites and helped to spread the word. I’m really still surprised how well this has taken off, but it’s been a lot of fun, and should be even more fun once the season starts. I have a few more ideas in the pipeline, so stay tuned here for more updates and ideas.
However, I’d like to extend out a call for help here. As the season gets underway, there will be a lot of minor league action taking place nightly. I plan on writing up game summaries/previews every day, that won’t take long, but I would like to enlist the help of a few people to help write some stuff for each of the minor league affiliates. Ideally, you would be the type of person who goes to a bunch of games for one of the affiliates, you’d be able to write up interesting things you see, take some pictures, etc etc. I’d like to start out with it being a once a week type deal, where you could just write up a few paragraphs about the recent happenings on the team, any transactions or moves, players who are hitting their stride/players who are struggling, just stuff like that. If that’s something that interests you, please send me an e-mail at phuturephillies at hotmail dot com, replacing the “at” and the “dot” with their appropriate symbols. Andyb will continue to report on our teams in the DSL and VSL, but I could definitely use a Lakewood, Clearwater, Reading and Ottawa contributor, and because I live in Baltimore, my ability to get to games will be limited to those played at affiliates near me. Again, this will start out being really only a once a week type deal, and we’ll see where it goes from there. So if interested, drop me a line.
As always, if you have any suggestions, comments, questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to let me know.
Interesting article regarding pitching prospects
If you aren’t member over at Baseball Prospectus, you really are missing out, but I’m not trying to sell anything here, and in fact, this content is 100% free. Nate Silver, the most prominent figure at BP, wrote an “unfiltered” blog entry today, touching on the popular phrase “TINSTAAPP”, also known as “There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect”, and how relevant it is. This was the most interesting part of the article
One thing that distinguishes young hitters from young pitchers is that young hitters can pretty much count on making steady improvements from the time they start playing professional ball until the time they’re 26 or 27. You might have a guy like Cameron Maybin who would be pretty overwhelmed if he tried to play in the major leagues today — but we can be fairly certain that he’ll be able to handle the big leagues in two or three years time. Cameron Maybin is a prospect.
—The same is not the case with pitching prospects. Although there are a few categories of pitching prospects — particularly guys with good stuff, high strikeout rates and highish walk rates (think Homer Bailey) — that tend to improve more often than not, in general there is no systematic pattern of improvement after the age of 21 or so. Sometimes guys get better, of course, and sometimes they do so in a hurry — but you can’t take a young pitcher in a vacuum and expect him to improve the same way that you can for a hitting prospect. Mark Rogers (to pick on some low-hanging fruit) will probably never get his command sorted out, Yusemiro Petit will never add enough ticks to his fastball to become a useful major league starter, Gavin Floyd will never learn how to keep the ball down, and so forth. All of these things are possible — but they’re not very likely.
This strikes me as being a very interesting area of study. Do pitchers really not drastically improve after the age of 21, for the most part? If you disagree with this notion, I’d love to see some data to illustrate the point. I may work on this as a project at some point down the line.
Player Profile: Michael Bourn
We’ve got a slow Monday here “news wise”, so I thought I’d get back to writing some player profiles. Also, a link I wanted to pass along that I thought I had before, is the link to James Happ’s blog. Happ has been writing a blog for MLB.com and talking about his experiences in his first big league camp. Check it out and say hello. Also, scroll down below this post and read contributor andyb’s take on our Dominican Summer League prospects. Now, onto Mr Bourn…
Michael Bourn was drafted in the 19th round of the 2000 draft by the Houston Astros, but chose to go to college, attending the University of Houston for three seasons before being drafted in the 4th round by the Phillies. At 5’11, 180lbs, Bourn never hit for power in college, but he did have a very impressive batting eye, and stole 90 bases in 3 years. The Phillies nabbed him in the third round and sent him straight to Batavia. In 35 games, he posted a .280/.404/.296 line and stole 23 bases in 28 attempts. The lack of power probably wasn’t a surprise, but for his first taste of pro ball, the fact that he drew 23 walks to only 28 strikeouts had to be viewed as promising in the Phillies eyes.
Bourn spent all of 2004 at Lakewood, his age 21 season, and he held his own. In 109 games, he posted a .317/.433/.470 batting line, with 20 2B, 14 3B and 5 HR. The triples obviously helped raise his slugging %, and he further utilized his speed to the tune of 57 stolen bases, getting caught only 6 times, for a 90% success rate, and incredible number. With his really strong full season debut, the Phillies decided to double jump him in 2005, skipping him over High Class A Clearwater and straight to AA Reading. 2005, his age 22 season, proved to be a bit of a disappointment. In 135 games, his batting line dipped to .268/.348/.364, 18 2B, 8 3B, and 6 HR. His slugging obviously dropped way down as a result, but he still managed to swipe an impressive 38 SB, but this time was thrown out 12 times, only having a 76% success rate. Still, Bourn was only 22, and had plenty of time to get back on track.
In 2006, the Phillies decided to have him start back at Reading again. He didn’t show much improvement, as in 80 games, his batting line was only .274/.350/.365, with 5 2B, 6 3B, and 4 HR. The Phillies still decided to promote him to Scranton, maybe with the hopes of kick-starting him. And it kind of worked, as he put up a line of .283/.368/.428 in 38 games. Over all of 2006, he stole 45 bases, being caught only 5 times, and appeared to be back on track in that department. Still, his power and ability to use his speed out of the box appeared to struggle again. A guy who lives and dies on his speed should have more than 10 doubles over the course of 130+ games. Nevertheless, when the rosters expanded in September, the Phillies decided to give Bourn a promotion and get him a taste of Philadelphia. He was used mainly as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, getting only 8 AB, where he got 2 hits and drew 1 BB. He also stole 1 base, but was caught stealing twice, one an in infamous play in Houston, where he was sent in to pinch run and was then picked off of first base in front of his home town fans.
So, where does Bourn go from here, and what can we expect from him? Right now, he’s a long shot to make the team out of camp, mainly because of the presence of guys older than him and have more experience. Long term value wise, Bourn probably has more potential than Greg Dobbs, but Dobbs is off to a hot start, and he’s been around much longer. The Phillies still control Bourn for quite a while, and he’s already on the 40 man roster, so they don’t have to do anything special with him. As a 5th OF, Bourn could bring quite a bit of speed and the ability to improve late inning defense, but Dobbs offers a power bat off the bench, and I’m sure that’s something Gillick and Manuel will talk about. But with injuries, and certainly in September when the rosters expand, Bourn will get his looks, if it doesn’t happen now.
The problem is going to be defining Bourn’s role, and figuring out how he fits into this team. Bourn has a very defined skill set that doesn’t appear like it’s going to change anytime soon. He has almost ZERO raw power, which means he’s always going to live and die by his legs and ability to make things happen. In the lower minors, Bourn had an excellent walk rate and seemed like the perfect leadoff hitter. But as he’s climbed the ladder, the strikeout totals have been rising and his walk rate hasn’t been rising enough to justify just throwing him into the leadoff spot on our team. If he can post a .380 OB% at the major league level, he becomes a very valuable asset. However, if he’s more like a .340 OB% guy, he’s just going to make a ton of outs, and his speed on the bases will not be properly utilized. The other problem is, the Phillies currently have Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand already on the roster, two pure centerfielders. Bourn does not profile at a corner spot unless it’s just for late inning defense, and neither Rowand nor Victorino are really corner outfielders, both are much better utilized in center. That leaves the Phillies in a tough spot with Bourn.
Ultimately, if his batting eye returns, he’s going to be a solid big leaguer, but that remains a big if to me. Right now, I can’t see a true spot for him on this team. If he gets hot in Ottawa and has a nice start, the Phillies could explore trading Rowand and then using Bourn in CF and Victorino in RF, but that doesn’t seem all that likely, and if Rowand is traded, it probably just increases the likelihood of Greg Dobbs making the team. That really looks to leave Bourn as a guy who won’t make it back to Philly until the summer some time in the event of an injury, or possibly even as late as September with the roster expansion. His performance at AAA this season will ultimately go a long way in determining what role/impact he’ll have in 2008, but he should
DSL Prospects
The Phillies’ entry in the Dominican Summer League finished the 2006 season in 2nd place in the Santo Domingo North division with a record of 40-26. The Phillies have had relatively strong teams in the league over the past few seasons, though they have not turned out a huge number of prospects. Many of the Phillies better players turned out to be several years older than the team had thought. Last year’s team was a little younger than in the past, so hopefully the positive record is being fueled by real prospects.
This post will go through some of the better prospects from last year’s team. As usual for the Phillies, there seem to be better prospects on the pitching side of the ledger as opposed to the hitters. Here are the prospects with performance (mainly statistics) that stood out.
Hitters (age as of April 1)
Ambiorex Rincon (age 20) – Rincon is a 20-year-old switch hitting infielder (likely 2B/3B) who put up by far the best offensive numbers on the team. Rincon hit .320 with 5 HR and 31 RBI. He had a total of 28 extra base hits and more walks than strikeout (28/27). His OPS was a healthy .862. Add 12 SB and you have a well-rounded set of stats. Rincon is among the players with a shot at playing GCL this year.
Santos Mathiw (age 21) – Mathiw is an outfielder who hit .256 with mid-range power (15 2B, 3 HR), patience (30 BB), and speed (8 SB). His OPS of .766 was second on the team. None of the stats stand out as well as they do for Rincon, however. Mathiw turns 21 in March, so he will need to improve in 2007 to be considered a prospect.
Others of Note – Juan Mejia (age 21/1B) is a little old to be considered a prospect, though hit hit .263 and led the team with 40 RBI. Vladimir De Los Santos (age 20/OF) hit only .246 but with decent speed (15 SB). Luis Santa (age 19/SS) is one of the younger players on the team and held his own as the starting SS, hitting .272.
Pitchers
Antonio Florentino (age 19) – Florentino is young and projectible (6’4″, 180). He dominated the league last year, going 7-2 with a 1.44 ERA and posting outstanding peripherals (81 IP, 47 H, 27 BB, 65 K). While the strikeout rate is a little low, Florentino is clearly a prospect to watch if his age is correct.
Daury Luna (age 21) – Luna is a relatively small LHP (6’1″, 165) who has posted good DSL stats the past two seasons. In 2006 he went 5-4 with a 2.59 ERA and good peripherals (87 IP, 65 H, 27 BB, 88 K). Luna’s age and the fact that he repeated last year in the DSL put up a couple of yellow flags as to his prospect status. Left handed pitcher at the low levels often pile up quality stats simply because the hitter there have not seen a great deal of left-handed pitching.
Yohan Flande (age 21) – Flande is another lefty like Luna that put up a good season as a starter. A little bigger physically than Luna (6’2″, 170), Flande went 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA. Flande had great control with a 5-1 K/BB ratio (65 IP, 55 H, 12 BB, 60 K). Like Luna, his age is a concern regarding his prospect status.
Miguel Matos (age 19) – Matos pitched all of last season at age 18 and went 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA. Matos is also very projectible with decent size (6’4″, 178) and solid stats (52.2 IP, 40 H, 8 BB, 54 K)
Others of Note – Jose Perez (age 22) was a solid 5th starter (3-3, 2.45 ERA) but is a little old to be a top prospect. Kenny Fernandez (age 20) was one of the team’s closers and went 1-4 with a 1.67 ERA. Edwin Bernabel (age 21) had good peripherals in limited time (30 IP, 24 H, 8 BB, 36 K). Several other pitchers also had decent stats, though the team tends to give the innings to the starters who are the better prospects. Also note that the entire team had a 2.51 ERA. Most likely the Phillies play in a large park that favors the pitchers greatly.
Draft and Follow Update
Thanks to emailer Dave, I have an update on Patrick Murray, one of our numerous draft and follows. Murray is playing at Golden West College, a solid program in a solid league, and is off to a nice start
.443/.494/.543 with 5 2B, 1 3B, and 14 RBI. He’s drawn 7 walks to only 4 strikeouts in 70 AB.
Also, it should be noted, Murray has already signed a letter of intent with Oral Roberts University. That doesn’t mean the Phillies won’t make a run at him, but it probably means he’s going to demand a decent sized bonus. Here is the blurb from the above article on Murray
Patrick Murray * IF * 6-2 * 230 * Huntington Beach, Calif. (Marina HS/Golden West College)
Currently a sophomore at Golden West College in Huntington Beach, Calif. … Starred last year at Santa Anna Junior College where he hit .330 with three home runs and 22 RBI in only 29 games played … Prepped at Marina High School where he earned 1st team all-league honors his junior and senior year … Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 31st round in 2005 and by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 46th round in 2006 … Choose ORU over UNLV, Cal Poly, and Loyola Marymount … says Walton, “Patrick has good size and is a very good hitter who should fill one of the holes in our lineup next year. He has a chance to bat in the middle of the lineup and to drive in runs.”
Stay tuned…
Phillies 6, Indians 4
The Phillies claimed a win on Friday, beating Cleveland 6-4. Some prospect news of note:
Michael Bourn, 0/1
Justin Germano, 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H
James Happ, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 K
Happ, getting his first taste of spring training, works two solid innings. I wonder if the Phillies might be tempted to keep Happ on the 25 man roster with a great spring and struggles from other relievers? Personally, I don’t think he has much of a chance, especially with two Rule 5 guys on the roster right now, and I think his biggest value is still in the rotation.
Draft and Follow Update
It looks like Rashad Taylor is trying to show the Phillies he’s worth a bigtime bonus, as he continues to rake for Skyline Community College. In 15 games this season, Taylor’s batting line looks like this:
50 AB, .460/.575/.880 with 3 2B, 3 3B, and 4 HR.
He’s also drawn 15 walks to only 7 K. That’s quite a start to the season for Taylor, and after his hot start, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Here are the statistics for the rest of our picks, what I could track down at least.
Shawn Epps (37th rd): 22 IP, 2.05 ERA, 16 H, 24 K, 7 BB
Bobby Haney (38th rd): 48 AB, .271 BA, 2 2B, 0 HR, 15 RBI
Gerard Mohrmann (39th rd): Can’t find info on him at the moment
Daniel Faulkner (42nd rd): 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 4 H, 9 BB, 9 K
Yazy Arbelo (43rd rd): 68 AB, .338/.402/.632, 2 2B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 8 BB, 13 K
Patrick Murray (45th rd): Can’t find info on him at the moment
Ty Manumaleuna (47th rd): 50 AB, .280/.438/.380 5 2B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 12 BB, 11 K
Nick Morreale (48th rd): Can’t find info on him at the moment
With this being the last season of the traditional draft and follow, it will be interesting to see the approach clubs take, especially the Phillies. Gillick wasn’t afraid to take chances in the 2006 draft, he signed a bunch of high ceiling guys, will he be willing to offer Taylor $500,000 to sign? Will Taylor take that much or choose to go back into the draft? Should be interesting to watch.
Phillies 7, Tigers 9
In the first official Grapefruit League game for the Phillies, they fell to the Tigers 9-7. Not much in the way of prospect news in the game:
Michael Bourn: 1/2, 1 R
Fabio Castro: 3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 K
Anderson Garcia: 1 IP, 3 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 1 K
Brian Sanches: 1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Also, there was a little writeup on Kyle Drabek’s performance. He said all the right things in camp, and hopefully with a strong showing at Lakewood, people will start talking about him for the all the right reasons, not the troubles he had in the past. Reports were that his velocity was down around 88-89 mph, but that’s to be expected this early in the season. Most of the big name college pitchers, guys like David Price and Andrew Brackmann, were reportedly also throwing 3-5 mph below their peak in early starts. You have to remember that it is March, and I’m sure nerves played a factor for Drabek. Because he appears to have been a model citizen in big league camp, he’ll probably end up with his full season assignment at Lakewood, pitching in what should be a great rotation.
Prospect Grades Wrapup
First, one guy I missed, then the revisions, and then the overall wrap-up. Thanks for the all the feedback as we progressed through.
De La Cruz, Maximo, RHP (age 22) Grade = C-
De La Cruz, in his age 21 season, didn’t really make much progress at Lakewood, posting a 4.90 ERA in 90 innings pitched. Shuttling between the rotation and bullpen, he allowed 98 hits and 35 walks compared to only 58 strikeouts. His performance was inconsistent, and for someone repeating Low A, I expected more out of him. He still is young, but he’s going to need a breakout performace in 2007 to be considered a decent prospect again.
2007 Outlook: De La Cruz will probably be a full time reliever in the near future, maybe even in 2007, with the shear amount of promising arms the Phillies have in their system. It’s possible he could spend 2007 in Lakewood again, but it’s likely that he’ll be moved to Clearwater.
Revisions
Carlos Monasterios, from a B to a B-. Slotting him in as a B was maybe a bit optimistic, but I think his control is a plus, even if his other numbers are lagging. He was old for the GCL, but that is offset in him pitching in the US for the first time in 2006.
Will Savage from a B to a B-. Because his role is likely to be as a reliever, and because he was a college pitcher, I decided to bump him down a half grade.
Ronald Hill, from a C to a C-. I bumped him down a half grade due to age.
Tim Kennelley, from a C- to a C. I bumped him up because of his age and because he was learning to catch really for the first time in his career, which probably affected his offensive numbers.
Tim Moss, from a D- to a D. A D will be the lowest grade given, I feel bad for giving him a D-.
Welinson Baez, from a D+ to a C-. Because he is still young, and he does have outstanding tools, I’m willing to cut him some slack, but he definitely needs a big 2007.
Greg Golson, from a D+ to a C-. See above. He did improve slightly when challenged with a promotion to High A, so I’ll give him some slack here. Again, he needs a big 2007 to recover his prospect status.
Derick Griffith, from a D+ to a C-. He regressed in 2006, and is dangling on the edge, but I’ll cut him some slack.
Final Wrapup:
I’ll list the prospects in groups based on grades, but I’ll also rank them within the group. So, all of the A’s will be first, but I’ll rank all of the A’s in order. Remember, though, that all A level prospects are close, all B+ prospects are very close, etc etc. When it came to breaking ties, I considered age/level/performance.
Also, I wanted to make one more comment on these grades. I tried to develop a system for grading guys, and my system was based much more on performance than tools. Tools are very important to me, but when it comes down to it, some guys are “dream athletes” who just never put it together, while other guys always seem to get the job done, even if they are less heralded. So, in doing these grades, my goal was to simply evaluate what a player has done, considering his age and level, and then tinker with his grade based on his tools and adjust it in that manner. It’s not a perfect system, but I’m going to work on it and try to make it that much better by this time next season.
A
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (age 19)
2. Adrian Cardenas, SS (age 19)
3. D’Arby Myers, OF (age 18)
A-
4. Scott Mathieson, RHP (age 22)
5. Josh Outman, LHP (age 22)
6. Edgar Garcia, RHP (age 19)
B+
7. James Happ, LHP (age 24)
8. Joe Bisenius, RHP (age 24)
9. Dan Brauer, LHP (age 23)
10. Ben Pfinsgraff, RHP (age 23)
B
11. Kyle Kendrick, RHP (age 22)
12. Brad Harman, SS (age 21)
13. Zach Segovia, RHP (age 24)
14. Matt Maloney, LHP (age 22)
15. Brett Harker, RHP (age 22)
16. Scott Mitchinson, RHP (age 22)
17. Drew Carpenter, RHP (age 21)
18. Alex Concepcion, RHP (age 23)
19. Jesus Sanchez, C (age 19)
20. Jarrod Freeman, RHP (age 19)
B-
21. Lou Marson, C (age 20)
22. Kyle Drabek, RHP (age 19)
23. Heitor Correa, RHP (age 17)
24. Michael Bourn, OF (age 24)
25. Pat Overholt, RHP (age 22)
26. Mike Costanzo, 3B (age 23)
27. Will Savage, RHP (age 22)
28. Mike Zagurski, LHP (age 24)
29. Jeremy Slayden, OF (age 24)
30. Carlos Monasterios, RHP (age 21)
31. Darren Byrd, RHP (age 20)
32. Matt Olson, RHP (age 20)
33. Garret Hill, RHP (age 22)
34. Reymond Cruz, RHP (age 23)
C+
35. Jason Jaramillo, C (age 24)
36. Justin Germano, RHP (age 24)
37. Andrew Cruse, RHP (age 22)
38. Sam Walls, RHP (age 23)
39. Jason Donald, SS (age 22)
40. Zach Cline, RHP (age 23)
41. Antonio Bastardo, LHP (age 21)
42. Gus Milner, 1B (age 22)
43. Charlie Yarbrough, 1B (age 22)
44. Jacob Dempsey, OF (age 23)
C
45. Tim Kennelly, C (age 20)
46. TJ Warren, OF (age 19)
47. Rob Roth, RHP (age 19)
48. Nick Evangelista, RHP (age 24)
49. Darin McDonald, OF (age 19)
50. Michael Dubee, RHP (age 21)
51. Quintin Berry, OF (age 22)
52. Justin Blaine, LHP (age 22)
53. Nate Johnson, RHP (age 24)
C-
54. Greg Golson, OF (age 21)
55. CJ Henry, SS (age 21)
56. Welinson Baez, 3B (age 21)
57. Dominic Brown, OF (age 19)
58. Michael Durant, 1B (age 20)
59. Ronald Hill, RHP (age 24)
60. Derrick Mitchell, SS (age 20)
61. Maximo De La Cruz, RHP (age 21)
62. Derick Griffith, RHP (age 24)
D+
63. Fidel Hernandez, SS (age 20)
D
64. Tim Moss, 2B (age 25)
65. Jermaine Williams, OF (age 20)
And there you have it folks, my Top 65 list. I’ll do mid-season grades for the kids in full season ball, and then at the end of the year do a recap of the list plus grades for those in short season.
Phuture Phillies 