48 thoughts on “Carlos Rivero: A case study in signing international talent”

1. How many options does Rivero have left after this season?

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2. update –> He has 1 option left after the 2011 season.

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3. He had a golden sombrero today for Reading. Oof.

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4. His BABIP is at .352 which he is probably going to come down BUT his LD% is at a career high 21%. It does indicate he is squaring more balls up and could be a sign that he’s figuring things out at Reading. Interesting guy.

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5. That was really interesting. Can anyone say how often we would see something akin to a bidding war over one of these guys? Cubans and Japanese are an entirely different story, obviously. Would be a good topic for a documentary film, a la “Hoop Dreams”.

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6. I understood Rivero picked up as a SS prospect but highly doubt he can hit enough to be 3B prospect. (Of course, I figured Overbeck would be at 3B in AA.) But as a good glove with some projection supposedly left I guess he is better than some other career minor leaguer. Still not sure he deserves a 40-man roster spot.

   Bigger surprises are Bocock on 40man and Martinez on 25man. Figure Naylor will be soon to be dropped once he is back from DL.

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   1. Well, I wasn’t insinuating that he was a top prospect. Only that he’s still pretty young, relatively speaking, and definitely still age appropriate for AA, even though this is his third season at the level. I think the improvement, especially in the power department, considering his physical tools, is a really big development, and definitely something worth watching.

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7. Very interesting read.

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8. I’ve seen Rivero and he’s a big kid who looks like a ball player. He made the plays in the field. With Galvis on his left side, they made a good defensive combo on that left side. On another thread, I mentioned his Home / Away splits (.203 home and .346 away). Is that nice hitting ballpark changing his approach? Is he trying to hit it out every time? With splits like that, there is hope. The Reading park will become his friend as the summer heat comes along.

   I saw Rivero when there was a stiff breeze knocking balls down in left field. He hit a nice shot that the left fielder didn’t have to move for. It looked like an HR off the bat but died in the breeze.

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9. I am not sure whether to be encouraged that the Phillies were able to add a raw talent like this on the cheap with nothing to lose, or the fact that he probably is already one of the better 3B prospects in the system.

   But thanks for the detailed write-up. I learned alot about him I didn’t know before.

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10. The Phillies have been criticized for not increasing their budget to sign elite Latin American prospects. They prefer to go for the quantity approach, sign the projectable athletes and hope a few of them work out.

    Given the scenario you’ve laid out here, it’s not a bad strategy to maximize spending on the draft where players don’t have as many hurdles to overcome and can be protected as they mature.

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    1. I respectfully disagree. Because they don’t spend in the Draft either. And there is a ton of difference between going crazy in LA versus being one of the lowest spending teams in LA (like the Phillies are now).

       I haven’t heard anybody that expects the Phillies to outspend the rest of MLB in LA. The complaints are that they are annually one of the lowest spending teams in all of MLB…I repeat…they are one of the lowest spending teams in all of MLB…in both Draft AND in LA. This is the same approach they used under Bill Giles control from 1984 thru 1995 and we all know how that eventually worked out. Now it appears they are reverting back to the same mindset.

       There is no good way to spin this as a positive, as shrewd, or as good business. It is about saving money pure and simple as the top priority over adding quality.

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       1. Do FAs come with guarantees now. Many become an anchor to a franchise. The Phils FA record is far from good.

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          1. I would dare say they are good. They are not perfect, but no front office is.

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          2. Do draft picks come with guarentees?

             Look, even for a well run minor league system, it’s impossible to build championships on a consistent basis just from the minor leaguer system. Oh, it can happen, but looking at WS champs, almost without exception WS champs have a blend of players from within the system, players acquired in trades, FAs, and players picked up basically for nothing (Rule 5, etc.). To expect a team to build entirely or even mostly from within is not only unreasonable, but a recipe for mediocrity in the long run.

             FAs are often “over priced,” and if I was a small market team I’d probably stay out of the FA market mostly. But a high payroll team like the Phillies CAN AND SHOULD play the FA market. They can afford to occassionally over pay.

             As for the Phillies’ past level of FA success (which of course is not the only factor – there are sample size issues here). Recent years only:

             Polanco – good to great sign
             Lee – it’s early yet, but I haven’t heard too many complaints.
             Werth – not a classic FA pick up, but yes technically was a FA and an immensely good signing that by himself makes the Phillies FA record over the past 10 years superb
             Contreras – excellant value pick up

             There are a few more good ones, and keep in mind the Phillies have been less active than some in the FA market. Even Ibanez gave the team excellant value in year one, okay value in year 2 – he’s horrible this year, but that signing actually has worked out okay. Yeah, there are a couple really bad signings, but with all the criticism of RA, there hasn’t been a real dud signing in the past 3-4 years. When Ibanez is your worst FA signing in the past few years, you’re doing okay. Oh, I know people want to say Baez, but he cost them virtually nothing – and while I don’t think he’ll keep it up, his ERA this season is actually decent to good.

             Of course a team can also build through trades, and the Phillies’ record there has been excellant.

             Finally, not in response to nowheeels, but in response to “nobody” above. As PP says below, politely, and I will say obnoxiously, criticize the Phillies all you want for spending priorities, but anyone who says they are cheap overall is an idiot.

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             1. I will say that I expect a transitional period in the next few years – something that even the best organization can’t avoid when your core ages all at once – the deadly combination of increased salary & decreased skill. The irony is that bridging the gap to (hopefully) the next round of stars from the system – and make no mistake, developing players remains a crucial component of winning – is going to REQUIRE spending money intelligently in the FA market.

                Saying that we should develop from within & not spend in the FA market – taken to the extreme – is basically another way of writing off the next 2-3 seasons.

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11. Makes no sense to me, that the phillies don’t invest more in the draft and latin america.Instead spend in free agency, look at it now if we had maybe spend more on latin america or draft we could , have a replacement for ibanez ,someone that can actually play, not a francisco or mayberry type. but a true hitting outfield at smaller salary. and maybe a shortstop who could replace jimmy, jimmy rollins is declineing in the field, but not last night game, he was outstanding but on the whole, and his hitting is slower getting worse. chase is hurt a lot and his average keeps going down every year. point is to invest 4 million in draft or pay 2 million or more for kendrick and mayberry types or francisco, which would you rather do try to hit a homerun with the draft or depend on francisco, or mayberry types to all of a sudden get good, I know you need francisco type as fourth outfielders , but not as starter, just wondering which is the better route.

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12. Whoa, let me clarify because I know this is a touchy subject.

    It makes more sense to have a larger budget for the draft vice Latin America. Especially with all the challenges and uncertainties involved.

    I definitely agree that the Phillies should spend more on amateur players. I don’t have a problem with the strategy signing and developing numerous projectible athletes out of Latin America vice blowing the budget on two or 3 guys who are in high demand.

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13. The Phillies simply dont toss a ton of money at any one prospect either in the draft or internationally. Overall, this strategy has worked out and even given us several good players at a reasonable price. Look at guys like Chooch or Carlos Carrasco. Neither took big money and both panned out quite well when looking back. Valle was another smart signing and there have been several others. Tossing $2-3 million at a 16 year old who is several years from physically maturing is a huge gamble that rarely pays off. The Phillies FO is what we would call “risk adverse” when it comes to such things. They’d rather sign 10 middle range guys that might pan out at $300K a piece than 1 $3 million prospect. Overall, considering the strength of their farm system despite several huge trades in the last few years, their drafting/international prospect signing theory seems to be working out.

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    1. But it isn’t that they are paying the same amount of money, just spreading it around (1 3 mil player vs 10 $300K players as your comparison states.) They are underspending compared to other teams. So, to takeoff of your analogy, it’s not 1 $3 mil player. It’s 10 $100K players.

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    2. I would not argue for them to get in the $2-$3 million bonus category. I agree that is far too risky.

       I would like more signings in the $300K to $500K range however and an overall budget maybe a million dollars higher. You mention Carrasco here. He signed for $300K. Players of his type now go for at least $500K. Ruiz was a different category as he was a guy with some tools and instincts but was not that highly regarded. It is the Carrasco type that we need to compete for. We signed Zavala this year and lost the 2 shortstops. I would hope we should try to land 3-5 of these mid-level signings each year. Not just one. We seem to be pretty good at this, so why don’t we increase our budget a little more and sign a few more better prospects.

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14. Since 2000, how many impact corner outfielders have come out of the Dominican Republic? The only one is Jose Bautista, and he has taken several years to get there. I get the feeling that we’re seeing some drying up of the talent coming out of the Dominican. It used to be that an organization like the Toronto Blue Jays could saturate scout down there and build a farm system. When all 30 teams are scouting though and you’re getting about 2-3 position players of value from the country, is it really worth a large investment?

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15. I spend a lot of time thinking about the Phillies budget, where they allocate money, and then how all MLB teams choose to allocate their money. This is a subject for another post, so I won’t go in to too much detail, but I have some general comments in brief.

    * The Phillies, as currently constructed, are a major powerhouse at the big league level. They have the one of the 3 highest payrolls in baseball, are right near the luxury tax, and are printing money at their ballpark. The major league product could not be more popular right now, which gives the biz dev department a lot of leverage in future opportunities.

    * In the last 3 years, the Phillies have traded their future assets (prospects) for current assets (big league players) with great regularity. The one time they attempted to “re-stock” the farm, they ended up with 3 prospects that haven’t quite made a big impact yet, but still could. Despite trading away lots of prospects, they still have a very deep farm system.

    * This is, in large part, due to their drafting and work in Latin America, and most of it has come from their lower money signings. Of the top 10 prospects, Cosart, Colvin and May all got big bonuses relative to their draft position, but Colvin’s gets an * because they didn’t have a first round pick, and he was essentially the first round pick. Singleton and Brown got slightly over slot bonuses. Worley signed for slot.

    * The Phillies most expensive first rounders (Hewitt, Savery) haven’t worked out, while the guys they’ve taken in the later rounds are the guys paying off. Which simply highlights the huge risk and attrition associated with prospects. Maybe the Phillies “got lucky” by grabbing Brown in the 20th round, or signing Cosart as a 38th rounder. Or maybe they just did their homework.

    * A big signing bonus does not ensure success, just like taking the most hyped prospect doesn’t always mean he will end up the best pro prospect. The A’s gave Michael Inoa (or Yona or Ynoa or however he’s spelling it now) like $4M a few years ago, shattering the record in Latin America. And he’s pitched like 15 innings in the US and has now had major arm surgery. Sure, its only $4M, but when you miss repeatedly, it adds up, and that $4M impacts your spending budget as a whole.

    There is no easy answer. And as I said, there are enough issues here to discuss for me to write another post. Which I will, hopefully before the draft. But I think its really stupid to criticize the Phillies organizational spending. You can argue how that money could be better allocated, but they aren’t cheap at all.

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    1. Thank you for your comments. I am not critical of the Phillies’ spending as a whole. I am just critical if their spending is like what some of the people describe it on here as: they *refuse* to pay big money to any one guy, just preferring always to spread their money out to a bunch of long shots.

       I think that’s a great idea as an overarching strategy but not if it’s totally monolitihic in the sense they’ll never deviate from it. That’s a great way to miss out on a possible superstar.

       That would be the only way in which I would be critical, if they were so stuck on this strategy, they refused to ever deviate from it, even if circumstances dictated they do so.

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       1. The problem is, the beta on 16 year old kids is off the charts. Its really difficult evaluating 18 year old high school kids in the US. But at least those kids are playing in games against other kids their age, and they are more physically developed. If a kid turns 16 in June and signs a deal with a club in July, he’s a really young 16, and you’re evaluating his ability at age 14-15, for the most part. Not only are you guessing on his baseball ability, because you’re only seeing him in workouts, but you’re also guessing that he’ll grow from 5’11/175 in to 6’3/210. And you’re guessing that he’ll grow lean muscle and not lose his athleticism.

          I mean, would I love if the Phillies made a splash and signed some super highly touted 16 year old kid from the Dominican? Sure. But it doesn’t make economical sense. Yes, he might turn in to a superstar in 4-5 years and become the next Miguel Cabrera, thus providing huge financial value until he reaches free agency. But 99 out of 100 players who fit that profile never make it, let alone turn in to Miguel Cabrera.

          The Phillies current strategy is to sit back, see which guy develops, the 1 in 500 guy, then wait to sign him when he’s eligible for free agency or his team can’t afford him anymore. That works for me.

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          1. Please teach the rest of these internet hoolniags how to write and research!

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          2. dVOKSb ptrndeaytpub

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    2. It is possible to seperate spending at the MLB level and investments in the farm system. The Phillies are most definitely “cheap” when it comes to the amatuer spending the past 2 drafts.

       I find it ironic that on a Phillies farm system website (the best by the way) that many offer the defense of such meager spending on amatuer talent by pointing to the record of the big league club and how much money they spend at the MLB level. The farm system is supposed to be about looking ahead, not at the present or behind.

       This isn’t a case of being overly critical of the Phillies amatuer spend. It is about the fact that they are at the bottom or near the bottom in spending the last 2 seasons. Practially the LOWEST spending team in MLB between 2009 and 2010.

       I don’t believe there is any good rationalization that explains it away as anything other than being penny wise and pound foolish. Again, that criticism being restricted to the spending on amatuer talent via the draft and AFA pools each year.

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    3. PP,
       If we think objectively about it, I think most people would agree the Phils are not cheap. The give the impression sometimes on isolated cases. For example (and please forgive my lack of details) a year or 2 ago they drafted a highly touted catcher from somewhere in the North West (Washington or Oregon maybe?). The Phils drafted him late because he had a strong commitment to college. The rumors were he would have signed for slightly more than was offered but the Phils drew a line in the sand and wouldn’t budge. I’m not sure how much was really offered nor am I sure if he would have signed. The impression, though is that the Phils wouldn’t come up with a few more dollars to get a top prospect at a premium position – and one of need.

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16. The Marlins have a spotty record in the draft but look at the rewards. If Stanton, Morrison and Gaby Sanchez were in an open market what would they be worth?

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17. Thank you PP for such an informative post for those of us that are still learning about the enitire evaluation and development process for baseball. Love it. Perhaps Rivero will be a great find by the Phils and is a late bloomer that can replace Polanco in 2013.

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18. NOT critical of there spending in general pp, they are spending a ton at 175 million,but just think more in the draft gives us better chance to not have to overpaid for a ibanez, or blanton, or next year rollins, if we develop more players, that’s all. example if we had one infielder ready for next year to play short. we could use rollins money on keeping say a Oswalt and resigning a hamels to a longer deal,because we had no starter ready,we had to sign blanton again to a contract that might hurt us in dealing with oswalt or hamels. just would like them to go a little more in the draft, and in the long run,i believe it would benefit the big club. the latin market to me and i have said it is tricky. because of the age factors, wouldnt really care if they increase that anymore.but us draft yes.

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19. Great story. Well done.

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20. I could be wrong but I thought the indians wanted to take him off their 40 man roster and the phillies claimed him off of waivers and that’s why he’s on the 40 man roster.

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    1. I don’t remember the story on this, so I could be wrong. I thought they signed him as a minor league free agent, but he may have been claimed. If you can find a link, that would be great, and I’ll make the update later.

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       1. Great write up PP.

          Just to help clarify, the Indians added Rivero to their 40 man prior to 2010, so he was optioned last season and then DFA’d by the Indians after the 2010 season. He was claimed by the Phillies in Nov 10 and optioned this season. So, he has one remaining option after this season.

          http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101103&content_id=15987562&vkey=news_phi&c_id=phi

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          1. Awesome thanks, I’ll make the update.

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    2. You are correct. That is what happened. They needed space on their 40 man roster for a small major league signing, so they placed him on irrevocable waivers to remove him from their 40 man roster, but the Phillies snatched him up.

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21. Also there seems to be a lot of searching for a “diamond in the rough” with this club, which is fine, but at times they seem to take it to bizarre levels. They have a weird fascination with Rule 5 guys with little upside (Herndon, Martinez) and often sign really rough toolsy guys with minimal baseball skills but high upside (with very little probability of reaching that upside.)

    Stuff like that. Now maybe every other big league club is like that and I just don’t know. But it does seem a little strange that the focus seems overwhelming on finding a lottery ticket versus diversifying your investments.

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    1. Hunter,

       Setting aside the minor leagues, where I think an argument can be made in favor of the strategy but results have clearly been mixed, the results of that strategy at the major league level have been fantastic – Victorino alone justifies it, and I’d put Werth in the same category even though as I said above he was technically a FA pick up. I DON’T think every big league club is like that, but the Phillies have benefited by their strategy in that regard. (All that said, while I think Herndon was absolutely a good risk, even if he never turns develops, which he might, Martinez baffles me).

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    2. I get this reasoning too, but I think you need to be realistic and look at the big picture. If the Phillies want an “average” MLB player, they can afford plenty of them every winter. They got an average LF in Raul Ibanez, an average 3B in Polanco (average when you consider he has well below average power for the position, but elite contact skills) for an affordable price, and they were able to pick up average starting pitchers like Blanton for fringy prospects.

       The Phillies are obviously trying to draft stars and impact players. When you’re not picking in the top 5-10 of the draft, its tough to find a prospect with star potential and also a high probability of reaching it. Hence, the Phillies draft guys with crazy athleticism and upside who are longshots to make it. But when you polish up that rock and find a diamond (Domonic Brown wasn’t a rock, but he also was far from a finished prospect) then it pays off.

       If the Phillies need to fill a hole on the team next year, they have the financial muscle to go get a short term replacement. But its tougher to go and pay for a superstar, and the way you grow your own superstars is by drafting the wildcards and hoping they develop and take to instruction.

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       1. I don’t disagre with any of that. My point was that on the minor league level there are arguments both ways, i.e., there are some costs and risks to their strategy, though I tend to agree with your argument, whereas on the major league level there really isn’t an argument – the Phillies have hit pay dirt twice (Victorino, Werth) with no signficant cost.

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       2. In more detail – I don’t think any informed intelligent person could fault the Phillies’ strategy in the mid and late rounds, or could fault them for efficiently using their resources.

          The issue is of course the early rounds. Clearly the notion that you should take a chance on some high risk/high reward “toolsie” players, rather than going with the “safe” (generally college) kids, is correct for the reasons you state. The criticism that people make is that, rather than taking those kind of toolsie players in the first couple rounds, we should be taking a third kind of player – the kind of player that is medium risk/high reward – more polished HS kids, generally. Now, of course the BEST of those kinds of players are gone by the time the Phillies pick in the first round, when they have a first round pick. The ones that remain are the guys for whom you are going to have to go WAY over slot.

          The arguement boils down to this: the Phillies should draft more of those types of players in the early rounds. And honestly it’s hard to argue with this at one level. I think people go WAY overboard on this – big picture the phillies do a great job on the draft, and even those kinds of picks have risks. But would I like the Phillies to take a flyer on more overslot, less raw, high upside (but requiring overslot contracts) in the early rounds? Yes, I do.

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22. I think David Herndon has big upside. He can hit 96 with his sinker. His secondary pitches need work, but a little more seasoning a triple A could resolve this. In the future, the Phils could have at least 4 innings locked down by their pen: Madson the ninth, Contreras the eigth, Stutes and/or Bastardo for the seventh, Scwhimmer and/or Herndon for the sixth. Also, Kendrick looks good in a relief role.

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23. Phuture Phillie,

    There are several errors in your analysis of Carlos Rivera’s case study.

    You stated that Carlos Rivera was surprisingly not selected in the Rule 5 draft after the 2009 season. The reason he was not selected because he was not eligible to be selected because he was on the Cleveland Indians 40-man roster at the time. On November 20, 2009 – Cleveland added Carlos Rivera to their 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft in December 2009. Rivera remained on the 40-man roster from November 20, 2009 until October 31, 2010 when Cleveland asked outright waivers on Rivera in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster in order to protect an additional player from Rule 5 draft. Cleveland had hoped to slide Rivera thru outright waivers at a time when very few teams are interested in claiming players since the other teams also are looking to free up spots on the 40-man to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. Cleveland came very close to having Rivera clear waiver as he passed thru the other 28 teams without being claimed. Philadelphia was in the last claiming position (# 30) because they had the best record in baseball in 2010. The Phillies put in a claim for Rivera and were awarded him. The Phillies had to add him to their 40-man roster on November 3, 2010 in order to retain him which they did.

    You stated that Carlos Rivera was granted his minor league free agent status after the 2010 season which is also incorrect. Phillies claimed Rivero off outright waivers on November 3, 2010 from the Cleveland Indians.

    You stated that Carlos Rivera has two options left which is also incorrect. Two options have already been used on Rivera. The first option year was used on Rivera in 2010 and the second option year was used on him in 2011 leaving one remaining option year. The Phillies have unfettered control of Carlos Rivera only thru 2012 if they keep him on the 40-man roster. At that point Rivera will have to clear waivers in order to be sent to the minors.

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    1. Thanks. I already made the update.

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    2. A minor correction NEPA…the Phillies did have the last waiver selection, but it was because they had the best record in the NL, not the majors. When a player is placed on waivers, he is available to the teams in his league first (worst record through best record in the AL) and the other league second (worst record through best record NL). So, the Pirates would’ve been the 15th or so team to be able to claim him. Nothing major, just a minor point.

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24. Hmmm looks like the 2012 starting 3B for the Syracuse Chiefs. To go with Tyler Moore at first. There’s Stephen King but he doesn’t hit as well as Rivero does as yet. Expectation is that Anthony Rendon will start at third base, if he shows an advanced approach he’ll likely start off in Potomac. In Harrisburg they’ll have some options, perhaps Hague or King again.

    Looks like a decent 1 year rental for the Chiefs if he can’t be optioned in the future. With Lombardozzi, and of course, Zimmerman ahead of Rivero I don’t see him coming to the majors?

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