Friend of phuturephillies Kevin Goldstein recently released his Top 15 Phillies prospects list, and he was kind enough to answer some questions for the site. As always, he provides some excellent insight into his rankings, as well as talking about a few guys who didn’t appear on the list. His answer on Phillippe Aumont gave me a bit more confidence in him, actually. So check below the fold for a Q/A with KG
phuturephillies: The Cliff Lee deal has been debated for hours on end, and the consensus opinion seems to be that the Phillies didn’t get enough back. The Phillies have countered and said they love the three guys they got back from Seattle. From the scouts you talk to, is the consensus that all 3 players (Gillies, Aumont, and Ramirez) have a chance of having at least average big league careers? Has the reaction among the scouts you frequently talk to been that the Phillies valued these guys higher than most everyone else?
Kevin Goldstein: Way to kick things off with a tough question. My first gut reaction to the trade was definitely “Is that it?”, but at the same time, all three guys are in the Top 11, with Gillies and Aumont in the top five. They’re good prospects, no doubt, but when you trade a guy like Lee, you want a stud, while this seems in some ways like more of a quantity over quality move. As far as the Phillies valuing these guys higher than others, it always goes back to the old scouting cliché of, “it only takes one.”
phuturephillies: Last year you considered Domonic Brown a 3 star prospect, this year he’s made the jump all the way up to 5 stars. In your writeup this year, you highlight the immense tools and projection he still has left. Having reached AA, how much better do scouts expect Brown to get? It seems his single biggest issue remains his outfield defense, but does that tool project to be at least average in the future? If he doesn’t show an uptick in power, does he profile in the 18-20 HR a year range, or more in the 12-15 HR range? Will his speed enable him to swipe 20 a year, or more in the 12-15 SB range?
KG: I don’t think his outfield defense is an issue at all. He’s a solid right fielder with a very good arm – no issues there. I think the issue is the power ceiling. You can look at him, and you can say that he certainly should hit for power, and while there’s been steady growth there, it’s also been slower than expected. I have a hard time projecting massive power for a guy who hit three Double-A home runs in 37 games, and scouts are very, VERY mixed in this department. It requires a lot of dreaming to see him as a 35+ home run guy, so I think he’s more of a 20/20 guy than a 30/30 one.
phuturephillies: Tyson Gillies is a guy I was really interested in when he came aboard, and the more I read about him, the more I like him. He seems to understand his strengths and weaknesses and gets a lot out of what he has to offer. He stole “only” 44 bases in 2009, but do you think with an improved technique and more experience he can steal 50+ in the majors? I know his numbers were inflated by the Cal League and High Desert, but his translated line still would have looked good in Clearwater. Would projecting him out as a .290 hitter with a .360ish OB% and 50 SB a season with excellent outfield defense be a stretch?
KG: Sure, with improved technique and more experience he could steal even more than that. He really is one of the fastest players in the minors, period. But that doesn’t always work out. I remember Erick Aybar when he was here at Low-A, and the Angels thought he could be a 30-40 stolen base guy. Therefore, when he got to first, he was running, PERIOD. And he was just really bad at it, bad reads, bad jumps, and he just never really got it. The progress was minimal, and that’s why he only stole 14 bases last year despite having the wheels to steal 30. As for the second part of your question, I think that’s a pretty solid perfect world projection.
phuturephillies: Phillippe Aumont seems like one of the more polarizing prospects among Phillies fans right now. On the plus side, you have the big arm strength and great sinker, which will play well in Citizens Bank Park, but on the downside, I’ve seen some criticisms of his mechanics, and he does throw across his body. How much should we worry about him breaking down, and will it be better for his arm to potentially be pitching 3 days in a row, or once every 5 days? With his fastball being as good as it is, can he be a mid rotation starter even if his curveball and changeup are just average big league pitches?
KG: I’m not saying his mechanics are perfect, but unless you are talking to a scout or listening to a pitching coach, I wouldn’t worry too much about what people say about a pitcher’s mechanics. Again, I have NO IDEA where these criticisms you mention are coming from, so I might be totally barking up the wrong tree, but there’s a lot of people out there masquerading as some kind of mechanics expert, and it’s all quite silly. Does he throw across his body? Absolutely. Is he off-balance on landing? Absolutely. Will he get hurt? Maybe. But that’s the life of the pitcher. You a big Felix Hernandez fan? You think he’s good? I sure do, but those are hardly pretty mechanics either, but what can you do? You start messing with it, and you don’t have Felix Hernandez anymore. Pitchers get hurt – a LOT. Like a crazy amount. It’s part of the game, and it’s just something we might be better off accepting. Watching grainy YouTube videos in an attempt to figure out who and when is a fool’s errand. Ok, now that I’m done ranting, back to Aumont. I think he could definitely be a mid-rotation guy, but I also think he can be much more if some things work out. The fastball really is a special pitch. I’ve seen the guy in person on multiple occasions, and it’s very, very hard to find that kind of velo/movement combination in a fastball, and he will flash a plus breaker. There’s a lot of upside here, it just comes with some risk. How many high-upside prospects don’t come with a lot of risk? You don’t need more than one hand to count them. Man, I went on way to long there.
phuturephillies: Mike Stutes and Vance Worley both had nice debuts in 2008, and the Phillies chose to aggressively promote both of them to AA to start 2009. Both guys had uneven seasons, but both showed flashes of promise. Does either guy project as a #4/5 starter, or would you say both of them are middle reliever types going forward?
KG: I wouldn’t give up on either, but at the same time, I’m not especially high on them either. I think we can step back and say they might have been better served by pitching at Clearwater, but we might be totally wrong about that. Sometimes these aggressive assignments can help immensely as a teaching tool if the kid is mature enough to handle struggling. A guy like Worley one hopes learned that he needs more than just the fastball, while a guy like Stutes, you hope he learns that even if you have a nice arsenal, you have to locate pitches.
phuturephillies: Former first round pick Zach Collier had a bit of a nightmare in 2009, struggling at both Low A and Short Season Williamsport, but was it a case of him just being much more raw than the Phillies initially thought? Having only turned 19 in September, I’m assuming there is still hope here. Did scouts mention anything specifically about his struggles, or was it more just a case of things getting away from him early and not being able to rebound?
KG: Sure, there’s plenty of hope there. Scouts universally talked about how impressive the raw tools are, but as a hitter, he’s really just a mess. One scout thought his swing needed a complete overhaul, just wanted to break him completely down and start from scratch. If he does make it, it’s going to take awhile, and the fact that he’s going to need that much more work means he’s that much more risky, but you can’t give up on a teenager with that kind of athleticism.
phuturephillies: I’m curious about the prospects for two guys who haven’t hit much since coming into the organization in Anthony Hewitt and Freddy Galvis. You listed Hewitt as your sleeper this year, and while his approach still seems very crude, he at least showed some raw power. Will a move to the outfield benefit him at the plate? Have his raw tools remained in tact since being drafted? On Galvis, we’ve heard for ages about his defensive mastery, but do scouts think his bat will show enough to be a second division starter at SS, or is he a poor man’s Adam Everett, if there is such a thing.
KG: The Phillies definitely hope that taking some of the defensive pressure off of Hewitt will help him take a step forward with the bat. I know his numbers were still ugly in 2009, but scouts absolutely saw some very real progress in his game. The raw tools are definitely still insane. I think his chances of exploding are about 8% or so, but at least there’s a number there, no? Galvis obviously is a very different story. When you have a guy like that, all you are hoping for is that he can hit .260 or so and become that Adam Everett type of guy. He’d be much better served with a more patient approach, and if anything, that approach went backwards last year.
phuturephillies: Domonic Brown made the jump from 3 star to 5 star prospect in 2009, if you to pick one of the 8 guys you listed as a 3 star prospect for 2010 to emerge and jump up to a 5 star prospect next year, which guy would it be and why?
KG: I’m going to get in trouble here, as my first answer is, “none.” A five-star guy is generally an elite-level guy, a Top 50 in baseball type of guy, and the three-stars aren’t even Top 100 prospects. I could see May with the best chance of being Top 100 next year.
phuturephillies: Among the 2009 draftees, Jon Singleton had arguably the best debut of the bunch, showing excellent patience at the plate as well as some power in the GCL. The Phillies haven’t had a legit 1B prospect since Ryan Howard, so people are excited on the early results. Does Singleton get good reviews from scouts? The reports on him after the Phillies drafted him seemed promising, and his brief pro debut may have raised expectations even more. Is the excitement warranted?
KG: The fact that he did well in his pro debut is certainly better news than him doing crappy in his pro debut, but either way, it doesn’t mean very much. He’s a big kid with a big swing and big raw power, but it’s way too early to classify him as anything more than a sleeper. Obviously, the draft isn’t perfect, and yes, great players are found in the late rounds on occasion, but there really is a reason 256 players were drafted before Singleton came off the board. I’m certainly intrigued, but it’s way too early to start thinking of him as a big league first baseman. Plus, as a basic rule, first base prospects are terrifying. They have to MASH to be prospects, as all of their value is in the bat.
phuturephillies: The Phillies have a number of arms that don’t really project as impact guys, but who could fill in down the road. Could you give some quick hits on Justin De Fratus, Matt Way, Michael Schwimer, and futures game representative Yohan Flande?
KG: DeFratus: Big strike thrower with sink; stuff plays WAY WAY WAY batter (like crazy better) out of the pen. I actually think he has very real big league relief possibilities.
Way: 45 fastball, but great command and control and a plus changeup. Those guys can put up some SICK numbers at the lower levels, but big league upside is limited.
Schwimer: Classic fastball/slider reliever. Both pitches are a tick above average, so he’s a relief prospect, just not a late-inning one.
Flande: Future LOOGY? Scouts like him, but mostly as a reliever. I think the Futures Game appearance may have created some unrealistic expectations.
Thanks again to Kevin for his insight and answers!
Phuture Phillies 
this was really interesting. I love how Goldstein doesn’t get caught up in fan/talk radio type hysteria.
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Hardball Times has us as the worst farm system in the Majors…ouch.
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Very interesting on DeFratus.
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I love KG.
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Props to KG for taking the time to do this.
He’s always had an affinity for big, hard-throwing righthanders, so when he listed Aumont as the organization’s second best prospect, I can’t say I was surprised. But I think he did a much better job explaining his optimism here than in the actual BP piece. I’m still not as high on Aumont as KG and some others, but as you said, James, I feel a little bit better having read what KG said here.
Nice work as always, James. Especially loved the quick hits question at the end.
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I love his basic point about Aumont: You don’t get fastballs like that every day. If he can’t do anything but throw that fastball, he’s a solid bullpen guy, who does provide value. If he harnesses everything else, he might can be an all-star.
Too early to tell at his age, but his arm could be something special.
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Very good questions and answers.
Please make sure to thank Kevin on behalf of us readers!
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I, too, am still smarting over the dead last ranking in HBTs minor league system review. That having been said, I am pretty confident that is going to change quickly. We have so many high upside players in the low minors that there is an excellent chance that if even 15-20% them succeed, the system will soon be looking quite strong.
One thing is clear – I want to watch Dom Brown play as soon as possible. Like some of the “experts” – I wonder whether Brown is truly going to be a better player than Taylor as the Phils obviously believe. I accept that he’s a few years younger and I also accept that his overall raw tools are better. That having been said, Taylor was more advanced, showed more power (and had greater projected power), hit for a higher average, had a pretty darn full tool box of skills himself (fast, a cannon arm) and is, by all accounts an extremely intelligent person.
Yup, I have to say I had a lot of “man love” for ‘ol Michael Taylor and I’ll miss not seeing him break into the majors.
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On a separate note, Aumont is growing on me as well. He has fabulous skills and I like the way he carries himself on the mound (he oozes confidence) and in front of the press. I’ve made a conscious decision not to judge the Lee trade too soon – it could end up being a great trade.
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A tribute to both of you for the quality questions and taking time for the answers. I really appreciate getting additional opinions, especially from someone who talks with Major League scouts.
I am most surprised by the comments on Hewitt and Collier. Sounds like Hewitt made progress while Collier went way backwards. Though both now appear to be longshots, who is the better prospect now?
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I ranked Collier one spot ahead of Hewitt in my top 30, which will be up Monday, and both are at the back end, which seems to be where they belong at this point.
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It makes sense that the Phillies would have the worst system in the Minors. No high 1st round draft picks for years, will not spend in the draft like Boston or New York, and traded 7 of their top 8 prospects while getting 3 lesser prospects in return in the last half year.
However, the Major League club only has a roster spot for one relief pitcher open. Though it is always good to have a strong prospect list for injuries or trades, the Phillies have very few needs. And, most of the Phillies prospects are of the most important commodity: pitchers.
In my opinion, given the current state of the organization it would be nice to have Marson and Donald back. Organizational depth/bench at C and SS are lacking and both players project to be quality backups who could probably handle a starting job for a short time. It would be nice to have them for 6 years of control each.
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Best line of the interview from KG regarding Hewitt:
“I think his chances of exploding are about 8% or so, but at least there’s a number there, no?”
It is better than one in a million and as Lloyd would say, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance… *YEAH!*”
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Zach Collier just got surgery on his hand by the way
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“but when you trade a guy like Lee, you want a stud”
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If Gose could have been traded instead of Taylor and you knew you were getting Gillies WHY NOT?
Last despite trading a winner like Lee! Sick
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Just a few comments guys, and I’m glad you enjoyed the interview. James does a fantastic job with this site, and Phils fans are lucky to have him.
1. No way this is the worst system in baseball — NO WAY. I’ll have my org rankings in a few weeks. Phillies obviously won’t be at the top, but no way will they be 30 either. Don’t worry about what EVERYONE says about your system. Vet your sources.
2. “He’s always had an affinity for big, hard-throwing righthanders.” This has always been a bias, and I explained why in great detail here.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9486
3. Catch 22: You will see my Top 101 soon, but for now I’ll say while the gap isn’t very large at all, I have Taylor over Brown.
4. If you offered me Collier or Hewitt, I’d take Hewitt, but both are obviously quite risky. You are asking me if I want the lottery ticket with random numbers, or the one with my birthday. Not a real difference, one just seems a little better to the gut.
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“JKEARSE123 Says:
February 19, 2010 at 11:45 PM
Zach Collier just got surgery on his hand by the way”
Source? How serious was the surgery? How long will he be out?
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Kevin (and of course James) – thank you so much for this! Obviously a lot of us on this site get very little, if any, personal looks at these players. And even if we did, I, for one, woulldn’t know an “across his body” from “three quarters arm slot”, etc. so I really appreciate you taking the time to fill us in on your thoughts based upon real experience and insight.
Greatly appreciated and, as Kevin mentions, very glad to have James in our corner!
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I could be wrong, but I think the HBT article was in their fantasy section and is for players potentially impacting the 2010 season.
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Pat that would make a lot of sense. thanks
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Catch 22/KG:
Domonic Brown may be a superstar and Michael Taylor may be simply an above avg corner OF. That’s one scenario, and as a Phils fan, I hope both are frequenr all-stars.
However, I have to acknowledge that Phils farm gurus put a high premium crazy athleticism (we have cornered the market, pretty much). So yes, Dom my be pretty good, but he could also be a somewhat above avg and inconsistent player on both offense and defense, without big time power. That’s also a reasonable scenario for him.
And Taylor could wind wind up hitting between .290 and .325 every year for the next 12 years with 20-30 HRs, 20 SBs, etc.
Agree there is a solid chance Taylor could be better and super-athlete lust could lead to a blind spot at times in an otherwise competent scouting and development organization.
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DiamondDerby – you and I are on the same page. Here’s how I look at this. Yes, Dom Brown probably has better odds of being a superstar (or even a true star – perennial all-star type) than Michael Taylor. But I think M. Taylor’s odds of being a very, very good player a notably higher than Brown’s. If you had to run an odds distribution, from my perspective, it would be something like this.
Chance of being a true star – Brown – 20%; Taylor 10%
Chance of being a very good player – Brown 20%; Taylor 40%
Chance of being an average to above average player – Brown 30%; Taylor 30%
Chance of being a back-up player – Brown 20%; Taylor 10%
Chance of being a borderline MLB player or worse – Brown 10%; Taylor 10%
You can argue with these percentages to be sure, but that’s how I view this. Brown has more upside, but Taylor is more likely to be an above-average player or better. If the Phils had Taylor and Brown, they could have saved a boatload of money in the next few years that could have been committed to other needs. As it stands now, they’ll either have to pay Werth a ton, they’ll have to sign another FA, or they’ll have to try to get some young outfielders they hope develop (among these players are Francisco and Mayberry – Francisco could develop, it’s unlikely with Mayberry).
My point, again, is that the most unheralded and significant aspect of the Halliday/Lee trades was the departure of M. Taylor, the effects of which will begin to be felt next off season.
We’ll see.
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And you heard it here first . . . .
Sometime this year, unless Ben Francisco has a breakout season (which is possible, but not likely) probably around the trade deadline or later, the Phillies will acquire a power hitting right-handed bat to come off the bench and, more importantly, add punch to a WS line-up (yes, given that they are going for a title, their needs are actually that specialized). My prediction as to who that would be? None other than Pat Burrell.
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Thanks PP and KG – some good insights here…
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Great stuff as always. Thanks to Kevin for spending a little more time with we Phillies obsessives.
This is a bit of a tangent, but one arguable concern is that the Phils would seem not to have much “inventory” left for in-season acquisitions of the type they’ve made the last two years. Never mind the deals for Lee or Halladay; I’m not even sure they have enough remaining to make a trade of the sort they pulled off to get Blanton two years ago. Brown is probably *too* valuable to trade; the three guys we got back from Lee might be somewhat devalued for having been traded once already (though it didn’t seem to make Brett Wallace less appealing), and everyone else is too young.
They’ve got bodies who perhaps look enough like prospects–the Savery/Worley/Stutes/Flande/Carpenter cohort–to get someone back from a team really just looking to dump salary, but other than arguably one of Gillies/Gose, who are somewhat redundant, I don’t see many areas where Amaro et al can think “we can deal player X because we have two other guys like him at the next level down.”
Just a thought.
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Thanks for replying in the comments KG! We phans really appreciate it!
On the inventory question, I think these Low A players could be valuable trade bait. The arguable ‘headliners’ for Lee and Blanton were Cardenas (in low A but raking) and Knapp (huge K numbers in low A). However, for Halladay we gave up two top notch guys ready to contribute in 2010 plus a stud low A guy (but we did get $6M and the best pitcher in baseball).
I agree that the mid-level pitcher types might only get you a Matt Stairs type at the deadline. However, the Cosart, Pettibone, Shreve contingent could excite another GM looking long term.
Likewise in the OF with Hewitt, Collier, Castro, James. I could definitely see the hype around James putting him into the Gose category by mid-season.
The Phillies could try to keep May, Colvin, Gillies, and Santana.
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You heard it here first…
Pat Burrell stinks.
My prediction: John Mayberry JR will hit .290, .330 and .550 in AAA and be a better option for the Phillies at the trade deadline than the turtle slow, stone hands, strike three watching, Pat Burrell.
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Anonymous:
Pat Burrell is a hell of a lot better than he played last year. If he were brought back, it would be primarily to pinch hit and hit DH in the WS and it would be a one year deal. When he is playing well he is selective and is actually a fairly productive hitter and light years better than the inadequate choices the team had at DH in the last WS. In fact, you can make a pretty damn compelling argument that the two critical differences between the Phils and the Yanks in the last WS were DH and closer. The Phils DH against the Yanks DH was a joke.
Honestly as between Burrell and Mayberry, you are deluding yourself that Mayberry is the better choice. I’d like him to succeed as much as anyone, but the statistics say that Mayberry is unlikely to ever become more than a spare part and if you’d rather see him DH than Burrell, well, I don’t know what to say other than that I’m glad you’re not the GM.
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Guys, there is no chance that Mayberry hits 290 at AAA and there’s no chance the Phillies bring Burrell back. Those ideas aren’t realistic. Mayberry hasn’t ever hit for average that high and Burrell has very little left physically. If someone gets hurt, they’ll make a trade but otherwise, the only trades they’ll make will be for more bullpen pitching like every year.
However, I totally agree with your comparison of Taylor and Brown. Taylor is the more sure thing. For those of you who haven’t seen Brown, he’s no ready yet. Taylor is though.
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2009 MLB OPS
Pat Burrell: .682
J Mayberry: .724
Confident the Phillies GM is smart enough to stay away from Pat Burrell at the trade deadline, despite the great idea from C22.
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Why are you guys even discussing this here? Move on.
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We’re far more likely to get .255/.335/.475 out of Mayberry at AAA this year, not the other prediction starting at .290. Mayberry has never hit .290 at any level.
Also, FWIW, I didn’t buy the Hardball Times review but I was a bit surprised to see it. We’re not Top 10 like we would have been before the trades but we’re not nearly that bad. I’d guess we’re in the 15-20 range personally (at this moment..the draft and some breakouts from the toolsheds could change that).
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Interesting that KG would take Hewitt over Collier, if offered. Maybe there is some chance for Hewitt. It will be very interesting to compare the progress of Hewitt, Collier, JJames and Castro at Lakewood this season. Collier and Hewitt will probably be in direct competition for at-bats in LF.
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****Collier and Hewitt will probably be in direct competition for at-bats in LF.****
Somehow I think they’ll find a way to give each plenty of ABs…even if it means DHing someone (either one of them or one of the other OF prospects taking their spot).
Besides, I thought Hewitt was gonna be playing CF, not LF.
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I agree with PP – too much Burrell discussion is just plainly beyond the scope of this site – that’s my fault. But, in parting, the OPS line comparison is ridiculous – Burrell had an abysmal season and Mayberry’s sample size is so ridiculously small that it is entirely meaningless.
With that, I will, indeed, “move on.” Sorry about bringing up tangential points.
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With May, Valle, Aumont, Gillies and , of course, Brown the Phils could still obain whatever they need at the trading deadline. The aftermath would likely be one of the five worst systems.
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“With May, Valle, Aumont, Gillies and , of course, Brown the Phils could still obtain whatever they need at the trading deadline. The aftermath would likely be one of the five worst systems.”
Do not agree. All it takes is for the Phillies’ AA prospects (Aumont, Gillies and ramirez) to continue to progress. Add in a break-out season by one or two of the high upside guys at Lakewood or Clearwater, and the Phillies will be able to trade, while still having a decent talent level in the minors.
I honestly do not see much difference between the talent level now, and the talent level heading into 2008.
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The Phillies have better rated talent than in 2008 if you check the ‘stars’. Also, the talent was concentrated in A ball just like this year.
2008 BP top 11
Two 4 star prospects
01. Carlos Carassco – AA ball
02. Joe Savery – A ball
3 star prospects
03. Adrian Cardenas – A ball
04. Josh Outman – AA ball
05. Kyle Drabek – A ball injured
06. Travis d’Arnaud -RK
07. Lou Marson -AA ball
08. Jason Donald -AA ball
09. Dominic Brown -low A ball
and then two 2 star prospects
10. Drew Carpenter
11. Travis Mattair
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“I honestly do not see much difference between the talent level now, and the talent level heading into 2008.”
Yeah, that’s probably about right – actually, I feel like we’re back to where we were following the Blanton trade. There’s enough talent there for things to turn around significantly in a year and a half. Hopefully, in a year and a half, we won’t still be in “trade every prospect in sight” mode. Yeah, I understand why we did it and it may all work out great but the core of the team is aging and, when we get new players, although they are good, they tend to be older (Ibanez, Polanco, Halladay) – that can’t go on forever.
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Hard to believe a talent evaluator would rank the Phils minor league system last in MLB for 2010. For example, Baseball America placed four Phils prospects in the top 20 of the 16 team GCL in 09: Cosart (4), Singleton (7), Santana (10) and Villar (18). In another example coach Greg Legg who been in the game 27 years on that Sept. night Lakewood won the SAL championship in Greenville told Greg Giombaresse in a podcast that he sees 7-10 of those BlueClaws playing in the big leagues. Only d’Arnaud is gone from that team.
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BA still has them top 20 I believe.
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“7-10 of those blueclaws (will) play in the big leagues”
01. Trevor May – 3/4 starter
02. Anthony Gose – 5th OF
03. Justin De Fratus- middle reliever
04. Troy Hanzawa – utility IF
05. Matt Way – middle reliever
06. Heitor Corria- cup of coffee
07. Austin Hyatt – cup of coffee
Realistic outcome? Is that satisfactory?
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As a HUGE Hanzawa booster, I would be thrilled if he made it as a utility infielder….absolutely thrilled.
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Hanzawa can be Nick Punto, redux
Gose can be a lot more than a 5th OF
I think #3/4 starter is about right for May
DeFratus as a middle reliever seems right
Not sure Way is even that, probably last spot in ML pen
Correa could still be something –#5 starter or middle relief
Not convinced Hyatt more than an old for league wonder
Sanchez belongs on your list — middle reliever
Rosenberg should count for Lakewood — ML setup potential
Collier may have had his injured hand last season, if so, he’s certainly still got a chance.
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Rosenberg and Collier did not play for lakewood in the playoffs. Gose is a Low A, OF prospect, with a .650 OPS. He is not guaranteed to make it to the show.
The point is, that even if 7 guys make it to MLB. If only one(Trevor May) makes it as a regular, is the Greg Legg proclamation that meaningful? I would be willing to guess that there are many Low A teams with that potential.
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I don’t put much stock into the statement (and I respect Legg a great deal). What’s he going to say otherwise? “Yeah, this team did a great job but their futures look bleak and I bet none of them amount to #$^#.”
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From Lakewood, I absolutely think Sanchez and DeFratus have shots as big league relievers and I also think Harold Garcia has a shot as a ute if he has a good year this season. I actually think Gump has a shot as a 5th outfielder but we’ll see how he does this year.
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^%$^&%^& the Hardball Times.
Only one rating system matters.
2008 #1 in the World
2009 #2 in the World
ENJOY IT!!!!
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Brian Gump was a 22 year old college senior who the Phillies thought so much of that they started him in the GCL. He had a .800 OPS against a bunch of 18 year olds, then had a .517 OPS against players at Lakewood that he was still likely older than. If he is a 5th OF prospect then Greg Legg should have said there were 25 guys on the Lakewood roster that would play in the Majors.
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what do the hardball times have to do with this?
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Mike77 – let’s say the Phillies moved Aumont and Brown – where would the system be? I’ve become a firm believer in the fact that a system is only as good as it’s elite upper level prospects. After those guys who are the elite arms? May, Gillies and the youngsters (Cosart, Colvin, etc.)? I would like to see a solid performance above A ball, or for most of at A ball before I got too excited about any of them. Who would be the elite bats? Valle, Gillies, Sanatana and Singleton? I’ll give you Gillies but again the same arguement applies. Every system has guys in and under A ball with tons of promise but it’s when you move up you seperate the wheat from the chaff and get a true indication of the value of each player.
If you could make a trade where you got good value for guys in or below A ball then go for it but look at the Lee trade. Outside of Knapp all of the players were at AAA. They may not have been studs, but they’d performed to a decent level at AAA which is a good indication they could be at least useful, albeit in some cases utility, major leaguers.
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Sometimes I think people overestimate the likelihood of these high ceiling prospects having a breakout year. I think KGs right and it’s likely none of them breakout. Even if one does have a breakout year, is it really a breakout, or 3 years from now will we be talking about that one anomaly where the guy had one great season and regressed?
The Phillies have some great prospects, but we’ll be extremely lucky if one of them ever really lives up to his potential.
I also agree with Alan. I don’t put much weight in what Greg Legg said. He said what a good Minor League coach should say.
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Rodeo,
Too much is made of the recent trades. The projected talent in the minors is better now than it was at the beginning of 2008. The only difference is it is slightly younger.
The Phillies could still make a deadline trade if need be, and still have decent talent left. The Phillies have shown they are not trading Domonic Brown. They are probably not trading Aumont, Gillies or Ramirez. They could still get a quality starter at the trade deadline without giving up any of those guys if others continue to progress.
Lets revisit the Blanton trade. The trade that caused everyone to scream the sky was falling. Cardenas, Outman and Matt Spenser. A single A, 3 star prospect. A double A, 3 star prospect and a fringe guy. The 2010 equivalent: Gose, Bastardo and Berry/Sudsdorf/Kennelly. I believe that the Phillies could get a quality arm if needed for that package.
If Gillies, and just one of Jiwan James/Kelly Dugan/Kyrell Hudson succeeds at the next level, nobody will remember Anthony Gose.
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Cormican: Agree 1 breakout year is not enough. It makes you optimistic and separates the player somewhat, but you need two good years to have some real confidence in a prospect. Best of all is when a player produces more as he rises each level, such as Taylor, Marson, Donald, and some others. Improving production against better competition is something you can count on.
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Speaking of Taylor, I am going to enjoy watching him on mlb.com for Oakland this year. I don’t watch many games other than Phils, but I think I will become something of an A’s fan this year. I have invested a lot of interest and optimism in this guy. I am assuming he makes the team. No reason Oakland should hold him back if he performs reasonably well in ST.
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I’m especially suspicious of a player who had the breakout season when repeating a level. Welinson Baez comes to mind.
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A breakout year is at least a demonstration of performance and moves the player beyond the stage of being simply an athlete with a good scouting report. A lot of guys on the various top 30s have yet to put up any good numbers in a wood bat league, ever. For them, a single breakout year is a real milestone and I think a good percentage of them will go on to replicate that success, assuming the success was achieved in a league for which they were age appropriate.
I don’t get all the complaints that Gillies numbers, other than the modest uptick in still basically nonexistent power, were related to his home ballpark. Things like walks and strikeouts are not going to be park related for a guy like Gillies who is not a threat to go long. If anything, pitchers would be doing their best to keep him off base in front of the guys who do have power. His batting average may even be hurt by playing in a bandbox, since there is less ground to cover and the liners and short flies over the IF that might drop into a void in a larger park, will be outs.
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Mike77 – but that’s what concerns me, is the lack of talent at higher levels. I won’t disagree there is a ton of talent at the lower levels. I don’t think I’d go back and undo any of the trades that were made given the chance but I’m not ready to declare the system ‘good’ until at least the Seattle trio establish themselves at AA. I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this subject.
FWIW, I was one of a handful of people here who liked the Blanton trade. However, I don’t see Bastardo being a good comp for Outman unless the other team took a Aumont-like approach with him and determined he could/should still be starting. Overall, your point is good though. A Blanton-like starter could probably be accquired without giving up the higher level guys.
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The Blanton trade was and is a good trade for the Phillies.
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NEPP – That’s not how many people saw it at the time, that’s all I was saying.
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I was one of the few that was in favor of the trade then and now. I remember specifically saying it was a good trade here and on Beerleaguer on the day of the trade.
That trade won us a WS, no question.
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Don’t worry. I won’t go all Beerleaguer on you and ask you to prove it. I wasn’t doubting you.
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