BA has a new article up today (subscription content) listing the #11 prospect for every NL team. They list Roman Quinn as #11 and point to the things we’ve already heard before: he has blazing speed (comparing him to Michael Bourn) and note his surprising power for someone his size. That’s about it. Nothing new, but I thought him being ranked #11 was notable. Feel free to discuss.
Category Archives: 04. Prospect Features
What to expect in 2012, Sebastian Valle
I was thinking about the next player to write up, and Valle seemed like a great case. Always young for each league he’s played in, Valle had his best season in 2011 and performed very well in the pitcher friendly Florida State League, posting a line of .284/.312/.394, and that line may have been higher if he hadn’t worn down a bit in the hot summer sun over the last 6 weeks or so. Early in his career, Valle was considered an offensive first prospect whose future behind the dish was a bit uncertain. Over the last 2 seasons however, his athleticism and instincts have helped him improve tremendously defensively, and he now looks like no worse than an average defensive catcher with significant upside. He has a strong arm, and though he is still adding polish to his defensive game, all the tools are there. The question now is what is his offensive upside? Here is his career ledger
(click here to open in new tab)
32-33% caught stealing is solid enough, he cut down on his errors significantly, and the last piece is refining his ability to block pitches in the dirt. Offensively, his walk rate tanked and his K rate went up a tad, which means part of his batting average was definitely BABIP induced luck. Its important to remember the threshold for catchers in baseball. The average three slash line for all major league catchers in 2011 in the major leagues was .245/.313/.389. That’s putrid, obviously, and you only have to scan major league rosters to find guys who, if they played another position, would have been out of baseball years ago because they can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag. Valle could struggle in AA, especially against quality offspeed stuff. The Phillies are probably anticipating this, and are fine with this, as long as he plays solid defense, which is going to be a requirement for him making it to the big leagues and contributing.
So, what do you expect from Valle in 2012 at Reading?
What to expect in 2012: Jon Pettibone
In part 1 of this series, we took a look at what to expect from Trevor May in 2012, and today we’ll move on to RHP Jon Pettibone. Pettibone has been a bit of an enigma since signing in 2008. He was not highly touted by scouts entering the draft and the report indicated he may be better off honing his game in college and then re-entering the draft. After a 1 inning stint in 2008, he pitched just 35 innings in 2009 before logging a full season in both 2010 and 2011, moving one level at a time. His raw numbers have improved across the board, especially in 2011, and his K rate increase is the most notable, though its still below average. More importantly, the scouting reports on Pettibone have greatly improved. His fastball is now consistently 90-94, up from the 88-92 range where he was when drafted. Not only has the velocity improved, his command to both sides of the plate with the pitch has also improved, and his command in general is possibly the best of any Phillies starting pitching prospect. His secondary pitches are still developing, but both his changeup and breaking ball made strides in 2011. His career work to date (click to enlarge)
Like Trevor May, he will move to Reading in 2012. As we’ve documented a number of times, the jump from A+ to AA is a big one, especially in the Phillies system where you go from a pitcher friendly league in the FSL to the more offensive neutral Eastern League, but Reading’s home park plays as a decisive hitter’s environment, making the adjustments all the more crucial. So, what do you expect from Pettibone in 2012, and how have your expectations and impressions of him changed in the last 12 months?
Phillies ask to have Freddy Galvis sent home early
As noted in this article, the Phillies are asking that Freddy Galvis be released from his winter ball team on December 1, citing his workload in 2011 and also his minor wrist injury he recently suffered and came back from. There are two obvious explanations here. The Phillies are legitimately worried about burning him out at a young age or they are worried he won’t be 100% fresh in spring training, where they’ll expect him to compete for the starting SS position with Rollins out the door. Considering Galvis has logged 500+ AB in 3 of his last 4 seasons, I’m not sure the “burnout” explanation fits. While we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves, this does seem to be an indication that the Phillies think he has a shot to be part of the team in 2012, possibly even from Day 1.
BA Top 20: FSL list includes 3 current Phillies and 2 former Phillies
BA continues their run of league top 20s with the Florida State League, where the Phillies dominated the list, with 3 current players and 2 former players. The current crop includes Trevor May at #4, Sebastian Valle at #12, and Brody Colvin at #19, with former Phillies property Jon Singleton coming in at #7 and Jarred Cosart coming in at #9. You can see the full list here. Do not copy/paste the blurbs. Here is a quick summation
May – Good low 90s fastball, toying with a 2 seamer (which is GREAT news), curve and changeup are solid but both still need work, and his command is still his biggest question mark
Valle – Good raw power, ability to barrel balls to RF and his defense continues to make impressive progress, as he has a strong arm and improving footwork
Colvin – 90-94 hitting 95, but struggling with his secondary offerings and his fastball command and has trouble repeating his delivery (the cause of the command issues, obviously)
Singleton – Nothing groundbreaking here, good bat, good approach, raw power, but struggles against LHP
Cosart – Messy delivery, but huge arm strength, changeup grades out above his curve right now, both are inconsistent, some scouts think he’s a reliever (which I agree with)
I expect we’ll have a name or two on the Eastern League list. The FSL has 12 teams, so to have 3 of the 20 and 5 if you count the traded prospects shows the depth of Clearwater’s roster this year. Also, Pettibone, Jiwan James and Rodriguez missed the list, and both probably got consideration.
Updated running list
GCL: (1) – Ethan Stewart, LHP (16th)
NYPL: (2) – Maikel Franco, 3B (4th), Aaron Altherr, OF (20th)
SAL: (1) – Jesse Biddle, LHP (6th)
FSL: (3) – Trevor May, RHP (4th), Sebastian Valle, C (12th), Brody Colvin, RHP (19th)
BA Top 20: SAL list includes Jesse Biddle
BA’s Top 20 lists continue with the SAL today, and in a somewhat surprising move, only Jesse Biddle was included at #6. I looked at the list, and the league was fairly deep this year, but I guess I expected another name or two. BA notes his fastball was consistently 87-91, though we’ve read that it topped out higher than that, and they note his curveball and changeup were both solid. For a northeastern US high school kid jumping to the SAL in his first season, Biddle met and exceeded expectations, and I can make an argument putting him ahead of Christian Yelich, who came in at 5th, but its a solid ranking for him in his first season.
Of note, our old friend Domingo Santana ranked 18th on the list. His upside is tremendous, but he has a long way to go.
So far we have
GCL: (1) – Ethan Stewart, LHP (16th)
NYPL: (2) – Maikel Franco, 3B (4th), Aaron Altherr, OF (20th)
SAL: (1) – Jesse Biddle, LHP (6th)
BA Top 20: NYPL list includes Franco and Altherr
BA continues their list of league top 20s and today’s stop is the New York-Penn League, which includes 2 Phillies in 3B Maikel Franco (4th) and OF Aaron Altherr (20th) Franco’s power potential and defense are praised, and for Altherr its his projection and athleticism that are praised.
So far, the rundown for Phillies guys is
GCL: (1) – Ethan Stewart, LHP (16th)
NYPL: (2) – Maikel Franco, 3B (4th), Aaron Altherr, OF (20th)
The SAL is up next, and I expect we’ll see a few representatives here, led by Jesse Biddle.
Zach Collier suspended 50 games for positive amphetamine test
Per Matt Gelb and Todd Zolecki on twitter (if someone can copy/paste the link, I’ll add it here), Zach Collier was suspended 50 games for a positive amphetamine test. This is a pretty big blow, as Collier had experienced an excellent bouneback season after missing all of 2010 through injury. Lets save the character assassinations and over the top overreactions to the news for another time, but this isn’t a great development.
Freddy Galvis and Trevor May win the Paul Owens Award for 2011
Both were highly deserving. That’s all really, feel free to discuss.
Freddy Galvis promoted to Lehigh Valley
And he pretty much earned it. Gregg, role out the red carpet for his arrival.
Phuture Phillies 