Yesterday my Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide arrived.  I highly recommend it, the e-book is a bit cheaper, but I am partial to hard copies of prospect books to grab at any point.  You should also buy it to support the great work the BP prospect team does including two of our new writers CJ Wittmann and Chris King.  But enough of that.

The BP guide includes three comparable players for each prospect.  They represent a range of outcomes, and aren’t always accurate due to sample sizes and other weird statistical things.  These comparables come from PECOTA and I have also included the top 10 PECOTA player comparables overall from BP’s website for each Top 10 prospect. (as well as 2014 MLB projection, because they are fun)  These could change by next week as players change how they are, but keep in mind that PECOTA has a lot of data to work with and the more data it is given, the more accurate it becomes.

1. Maikel Franco – 3B (.255/.282/.427)
Handbook: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores
Top 10: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo, Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, Aderlin Rodriguez, Matt Dominguez, Edison Rincon Continue reading Fun with PECOTA Comps →

Reporting to AAA

Our first look around the organization at who is “hot” and who is “not” over the past week. Look for this article on Thursday or Friday morning each week.  For hitters to qualify, they must have 12AB’s over the last week.

A few quick points: Gotta like the way Crawford and Cozens started in Lakewood…Is it too early to be concerned about Franco, Joseph and Tocci, I think so….Severino Gonzalez with the best results of any starter in the organization last week without the best “stuff”…Dominant is an understatement for the week Kenny Giles had…Kyle Simon was unexpectedly awful in each of his outings for Lehigh Valley…Interesting that Luis Garcia has been anointed the closer in Lehigh Valley for now, with a very good week for the former barber/mover.

Hot Hitters: Edgar Duran (.500); Brock Stassi (.429); Peter Lavin (.417); Brian Pointer (.385); Willians Astudillo (.385); Carlos Alonso (.375, 4RS, 4RBI, SB); JP Crawford(.368, 4RS, HR, SB); Cameron Perkins (.333); Dylan Cozens (.321, 4RBI, 2SB)

Not Hot Hitters: ALbert Cartwright (.000, 0-13); Willie Carmona (.050); Justin Parr (.067); Leandro Castro (.091); Maikel Franco (.111); Steve Susdorf (.111); Tommy Joseph (.118); Carlos Tocci (.143); Matt Tolbert (.154); Zach Green (.160) Continue reading Hot or Not →

So since it’s MiLB Opening Day, and Matt did a set of predictions, and so did a bunch of other people, our pal and TheGoodPhight.com’s Cormican included, I thought I’d get you warmed up for Box Score Recaps with a set of predictions of my own. Enjoy!

Continue reading While We’re Predicting Stuff (With Links) →

Last year’s predictions went pretty well so I thought I would give it another try this year.  These predictions are based purely on opinion, and have no guarantee of coming true.

1. Both Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle do not exhaust their prospect eligibility.  Both are not called up until rosters expand.  Biddle puts up good numbers but is blocked in the major league level and left to make adjustments in AAA.

2.  Yoel Mecias comes back healthy and is a borderline Top 5 prospect in the system.  He is promoted to Clearwater after dominating Lakewood for a few starts.

3. Roman Quinn plays SS in Clearwater when he is back on the field, the Phillies begin experimenting with him at 2B after J.P. Crawford is promoted at the beginning of August. Continue reading Season Predictions →

For sanity’s sake I have not included all relievers in the system.  For the most part, low minors relievers are not prospects unless they move very quickly or have elite stuff.  Additionally it is hard to tell whether a pitcher is actually a starter or a reliever.

Players:

MLB: Jonathan Papelbon – 33, Mike Adams – 35, Justin De Fratus – 26, Jake Diekman – 27, Antonio Bastardo – 28, Brad Lincoln – 28, BJ Rosenberg – 28
AAA: Ethan Martin  (9) – 24, Kyle Simon – 23, Luis Garcia – 27, Jeremy Horst – 28, Mike Nesseth – 25, Shawn Camp – 38, Phillippe Aumont – 25
AA: Jay Johnson – 24, Ken Giles (14) – 23, Austin Wright – 24, Nefi Ogando – 24, Tyler Knigge  – 25, Brody Colvin – 23
A+: Dan Child – 21, Steven Inch – 23
A-: Yacksel Rios – 20, Manaure Martinez – 22 Continue reading Positional Preview: Relief Pitchers →

Players:

MLB: Cliff Lee – 35, Cole Hamels – 30, A.J. Burnett  – 37, Roberto Hernandez – 33, Kyle Kendrick – 29, Jeff Manship – 29
AAA: Jonathan Pettibone – 23, David Buchanan – 24, Barry Enright – 28, Greg Smith  – 30, Sean O’Sullivan – 26, Adam Morgan (20) – 24
AA: Jesse Biddle (2) – 22, Severino Gonzalez (19) – 21, Hoby Milner – 23, Luis Paulino – 24, Perci Garner – 25
A+: Nic Hanson – 21, Ethan Stewart – 23, Miguel Nunez – 21, Jon Prosinski – 23, Colin Kleven – 22
A-: Tyler Viza – 19, Shane Martin – 22, Mark Leiter Jr. – 23, Ranfi Casimiro – 21, Alejandro Arteaga – 19, Yoel Mecias (11) – 20, Shane Watson (21) – 20
SS/Rk: Lewis Alezones – 18, Denton Keys – 19, Mitch Gueller – 20, Drew Anderson – 20, Franklyn Vargas – 19 Continue reading Positional Preview: Starting Pitching →

Players:
Ben Revere – 25 – MLB
Tony Gwynn Jr – 31 – MLB
Tyson Gillies – 25 – AAA
Zach Collier – 23 – AA
Aaron Altherr – 23 – AA
Carlos Tocci – 18 – A-
Venn Biter – 19 – SS
Steven Golden – 19 – SS
Herlis Rodriguez – 19 – SS
Jiandido Tromp – 20 – SS Continue reading Positional Preview: Center Field →

Players:
Domonic Brown – 26 – MLB
Marlon Byrd – 36 – MLB
John Mayberry Jr – 30 – MLB
Leandro Castro – 24 – AAA
Steve Susdorf – 28 – AAA
Kelly Dugan – 23 – AA (5)
Cameron Perkins – 23 – AA (25)
Anthony Hewitt – 24 – AA
Justin Parr – 23 – A+
Brian Pointer – 22 – A+
Samuel Hiciano – 20 – A- (30)
Larry Greene Jr. – 21 – A-
Dylan Cozens – 19 – A- (12)
Jose Pujols – 18 – SS (17)
Cord Sandberg – 19 – SS (10)
Bryan Martelo – 17 – Rk
Freddy Zorrilla – 19 – Rk Continue reading Position Preview: Corner Outfield →