We are now right abouta month from the MLB First Year Player Draft.  There are many mock drafts floating around the internet so lets see who they have going at #7.  Remember that these are not necessarily who the Phillies have been linked to, it is also an interpretation of how other players are slotting into picks.  As always these mocks are subject to seismic changes over the next month, so don’t panic.

MLB Draft Insider – Chris Crawford (5/7/14)

Bradley Zimmer – CF – University of San Francisco

Baseball Prospectus – Bret Sayre (making the pick) (5/7/14)

Alex Jackson – C/RF – Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA) Continue reading Looking at Some Mock Drafts →

The ‘Pigs continued their eight game road trip in CHarlotte Monday and Tuesday, losing both games  after sweeping Gwinnett over the weekend and now stand at 15-16 and in last place of the Northern Division of the International League but just four games behind division leading Buffalo.  Lehigh Valley finishes their series with CHarlotte on Thursday and then returns home for an 8 game home stand against Gwinnett and Scranton that begins on Friday evening.

‘Pigs Leaders: Hitting: Maikel Franco is 9th in AB’s (113); Reid Brignac is 5th in runs (20); Jim Murphy is 5th in doubles (9); Clete Thomas is 4th in walks (20) and 4th in steals(8); Tyler Henson is 9th in SLG (.524).

Pitching: David Buchanan is 3rd in wins (4); Luis Garcia is 5th in saves (5); Sean O’Sullivan in 9th in IP (35.0); Barry Enright is 4th in HR allowed (5).

Pigs Prospects: Maikel Franco is showing improvement at .209/.263/.327 on the year and .300 over his last 10 games but in not nearly where we thought he would be at this stage.  His K rate (21%) is not all that problematic, but he has struggled to make solid contact for a good portion of the year before just recently.  Franco has 2HR 10RBI and is hitting just .188 with RISP. Continue reading Lehigh Valley Weekly Report →

Our first look at the progression (or lack thereof) of the outfielders around the system.  Next up will be corner infielders, over the weekend.

Lehigh Valley

Clete Thomas, 30, Signed as a free agent in 2014; .262/.389/369 in 103 AB’s; 1HR 10RBI; 8/9 SB; 16%bb/24% k rates; .300 vs. LHP; .247 vs. RHP; .217 with RISP. 29 games in the OF with 3 assists and 3 errors; Thomas has played well, providing much of what was expected when he was signed by the Phils as a 6th or 7th OF.

Leandro Castro, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2006; .188/.287/.275 in 80 AB’s; 1HR 9RBI; 1/3 SB; 11%bb/17%k rates; .074 vs. LHP; .245 vs. RHP; .250 with RISP.  23 games in the OF with 3 assists and 3 errors ; Castro’s low walk rate and high strikeout rate have been his historical problem and that has corrected itself this year, however, he has done little else.

Tyler Henson, 26, Re-signed as free agent in 2014; .299/.349/.494 in 77 AB’s; 2HR 12 RBI; 4/5 SB; 7%bb/30% k rates; .296 vs. LHP; .300 vs. RHP; .292 with RISP.  18 games in the OF without an error; 1 assist; 5 games at 2B without an error; 1 game at 3B without an error; Henson has hit very well, although with a high strikeout rate.  Henson has shown versatility, some power, and some speed and is hitting for average.  Gotta admit, I like him a little bit. 

STeve Susdorf, 28, Phils 19th round pick in 2008 draft; .254/.316/.296 in 71 AB’s; 0HR 4RBI; 2/2 SB; 9%bb/22% k rates.  8 games in the OF without an error; Susdorf has been adequate playing part time thus far.  I expect more from him as the year progresses.

Tyson Gillies, 25, Acquired from Seattle in 2010; .196/.258/.286 in 58 AB’s between Clearwater and Lehigh Valley; 1HR 3RBI; 2/3 SB; 3%bb/29% k rates.  14 games in the OF with 1 error. Just awful on many levels.

Reading

Zach Collier, 23, Phils 1st round pick in 2008; .177/.301/.258 in 61 AB’s; 0HR 2RBI; 2/4 SB; 11%bb/31% k rates. 18 games in the OF with one assist and one error;  Awful and overmatched.

Kelly Dugan, 23, Phils 2nd round pick in 2009; .275/.396/.375 in 40 AB’s; 1HR 5RBI; 1SB; 15%bb/18% k rates.  12 games in the OF with 1 error; Has been unable to stay on the field thus far and hasn’t had enough AB’s to pass judgement. Continue reading Around the System–Outfielders →

This was by far the worst week that the organization has had since I began the Hot or Not feature four years ago.  There was very little positive to speak of over the time period of April 24-30, with Mark Leiter being the lone positive that I will mention. He has been very consistent and has shown excellent command all year…Two steps forward and one step (or more?) back for Jesse Biddle…Three “toolsy” OF’s land on the not hot list this week (Pointer, Cozens and Hewitt), with I am sure more to come…Two pitchers I was excited about out of the gate this year (Shane Martin and Drew Anderson) hit the not hot list…We can only go up from here.

Hot Hitters: (Min 13AB’s) Harold Martinez (.370, HR, 4RBI, SB); Reid Brignac (.333, 3R, 2SB); Tyler Henson (.333, 4R, 3RBI); Brock Stassi (.320). Honorable Mention: Hill, Serna, Alonso

Not Hot Hitters: Brian Pointer (.091); Anthony Hewitt (.105); Angelo Mora (.122); Justin Parr (.125); Nick Ferdinand (.133);  Dylan Cozens (.158); Jan Hernandez (.158); Clete Thomas (.176); Gabrial Lino (.176); Andrew Pullin (.188)

Hot Starters: Mark Leiter (8IP 4H 0ER 2BB 7K);  Greg Smith (7IP 5H 1ER 0BB 6K); Jon Prosinski (7IP 6H 1ER 1BB 4K); Sean O’Sullivan (7IP 6H 2ER 3BB 2K); Tyler Viza (6IP 6H 2ER 1BB 1K) Continue reading Hot or Not →

Lehigh Valley finished up a long homestand with a 8-0 rain shortened loss against Pawtucket, and after a day off Wednesday, head to Gwinnett and Charlotte for an 8 game road trip.  Lehigh Valley went 2-4 on the week and are 11-14 on the year, four games behind division leading Pawtucket in the Northern DIvision of the International League.

‘Pigs leaders: Hitting: Reid Brignac is 5th in runs(17); Clete Thomas is tied for the league lead in walks(18)

Pitching: David Buchanan is tied for 5th in wins(3), tied for 9th in walks (13), 7th in IP (28.2), and is tied for the league lead in starts (6); Barry Enright has the 9th worst ERA (5.16) and 8th worst WHIP (1.63); Luis Garcia is 6th in saves (3) Continue reading Lehigh Valley Weekly Report →

It is no secret that the Phillies system came into the 2014 season with a long list of injuries.  Coming out of spring training the system was relatively thin, with normal depth players forced into starting roles for many affiliates.  Since the start of the season, the injuries have gotten worse, not better.  The Phillies have made the most of this situation and been aggressive in pressing young players into challenging roles while they work to get the regulars healthy.

Catchers:

The Phillies entered the year with two catching injuries in Andrew Knapp and Chace Numata.  The extended spring roster was composed of 5 catchers who had never played above the GCL.  When Cameron Rupp went down the Phillies bumped Sebastian Valle to AAA and Chad Carman to AA.  Rather than get an org filler catcher to fill the gap, the Phillies reached down to Extended Spring Training and brought up a pair of teenagers in top catching prospect Deivi Grullon and 19 year old Jesus Posso.  Both were above their head, but in the safety of the Clearwater complex. Continue reading Phillies Making the Most of Bad Injury Situation →

All of the stat lines are still very small sample size, but here are some stat lines that are intriguing me for a variety of reasons.  These stats may not continue, they may improve or decline, but nevertheless they are things that are showing me something now.

Tommy Joseph: 8.6% BB% 12.1% K% .220 ISO

Joseph is a guy that had a ton of helium last spring coming off of Spring Training.  He started slowly and then injuries ended his year.  Joseph’s line so far is a little bit pedestrian .240/.328/.460, due to a .220 BABIP.  Joseph’s hit tool is never going to be an asset, but if he can keep the srikeout rate under 20% and show the plus power, he is a big leaguer.  The reports on the defense are a bit cooler, he still has trouble with recieving, but the arm strenght is still there.  I am cautiously optimistic on Joseph.  I want to see more from him, but a full year in Reading will be good for him. Continue reading Some Stat Lines That Intrigue Me →

Yesterday we took a look at the hitting trends as hitters progress through Reading on the way to AAA.  The goal today is to give a much shorter overview for pitching stats.  There are more gaps in this group of players, and it is further muddied by the combination of starters and reliever.  Additionally the group as a whole is fairly week due to trades and burnout before reaching AA.

For this study we followed Jon Pettibone, Kyle Kendrick, Trevor May, Vance Worley, Phillippe Aumont, Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus, J. A. Happ, Michael Stutes, B.J. Rosenberg, Tyler Cloyd, Austin Hyatt, Jesse Biddle, Carlos Carrasco, JC Ramirez, David Buchanan, Adam Morgan, and Joe Savery.  For the stats we are looking mostly at fielding independent statistics, so BB/9, K/9, HR/9, and FIP.  Continue reading The Reading Mirage: Pitching Overview →

Several interesting talking points looking back at the time period of 4/17-4/23….Carlos Tocci seems to be getting the hang of Lakewood, albeit expectedly without power…Very nice to see Tommy Joseph rounding into form….Any Spring Training excitement about Larry Greene Jr. has dissipated quickly…Jesse Biddle, ’nuff said….Greg Smith should get some attention the next time the Phils need a spot starter….Seth Rosin with a nice re-initiation into the organization, while Kenny Giles keeps doing what he does (19K’s in 9IP)…Jay Johnson was on my list of players to watch pre-season.  That is not working out so far with one of the worst weeks in “Hot or Not” history.

Hot Hitters: Koyie Hill (.444); Steve Susdorf (.440); Cameron Perkins (.389, 3R 1HR 5RBI); Tyler Henson (.389); Carlos Tocci (.381, 5R); Tommy Joseph (.350, 2R 2HR 7RBI); Willians Astudillo (.350); JP Crawford (.333, 5R, SB); Reid Brignac (.320, 8R 1HR 4RBI); Andrew Pullin (.316)

Not Hot Hitters: Larry Greene (.000, 0-17); Brian Pointer (.087); Troy Hanzawa (.133); Harold Martinez (.138); Edgar Duran (.143); Aaron Altherr (.167); Justin Parr (.167); Maikel Franco (.185)

Continue reading Hot or Not →

Every year a prospect emerges in Reading and puts up huge numbers that excite Phillies fans.  Sometimes those players sustain their surprise, but more times that not, the player fades off to mediocrity.  For this study I took 18 players that played for Reading in the past 6 years.  Those players were Cameron Rupp, Darin Ruf, Derrick Mitchell, Leandro Castro, Cody Asche, Matt Rizzotti, Jim Murphy, Mike Costanzo, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Sebastian Valle, Maikel Franco, Tuffy Gosewisch, Michael Taylor, Steve Susdorf, and Domonic Brown.  All players were chosen for playing both Clearwater and Reading, and in all but two cases in Lehigh Valley.  The sample sizes across the levels are not equal and individual stats may not have stabilized enough to make individual declarations at this time.

In terms of stats, I started with the triple flash lines (batting average, on base percentage, and slugging) and their derivatives (OPS, ISO, BABIP).  Then I looked at defense independent statistics, strikeout percent, walk percent, and home runs per plate appearance.  Lastly in cases where batted ball data existed (seasons 2011 or later), that data has been included.  Additionally the age of each prospect was recorded.  In cases of multiple seasons at a level, I first looked for the larger sample size, if not, then the season preceding the promotion to Lehigh Valley.  In terms of aggregate numbers I am looking at pure unweighted averages of rate stats and percentages, this is an effort to weight each player equally. Continue reading The Reading Mirage: Hitting Overview →