Hot or Not

Our first look around the organization at who is “hot” and who is “not” over the past week. Look for this article on Thursday or Friday morning each week.  For hitters to qualify, they must have 12AB’s over the last week.

A few quick points: Gotta like the way Crawford and Cozens started in Lakewood…Is it too early to be concerned about Franco, Joseph and Tocci, I think so….Severino Gonzalez with the best results of any starter in the organization last week without the best “stuff”…Dominant is an understatement for the week Kenny Giles had…Kyle Simon was unexpectedly awful in each of his outings for Lehigh Valley…Interesting that Luis Garcia has been anointed the closer in Lehigh Valley for now, with a very good week for the former barber/mover.

Hot Hitters: Edgar Duran (.500); Brock Stassi (.429); Peter Lavin (.417); Brian Pointer (.385); Willians Astudillo (.385); Carlos Alonso (.375, 4RS, 4RBI, SB); JP Crawford(.368, 4RS, HR, SB); Cameron Perkins (.333); Dylan Cozens (.321, 4RBI, 2SB)

Not Hot Hitters: ALbert Cartwright (.000, 0-13); Willie Carmona (.050); Justin Parr (.067); Leandro Castro (.091); Maikel Franco (.111); Steve Susdorf (.111); Tommy Joseph (.118); Carlos Tocci (.143); Matt Tolbert (.154); Zach Green (.160)

Hot STarters:  Severino Gonzalez (2 starts, 12IP 9H 2ER 1BB 7K); Mark Leiter (2 starts; 12IP 9H 2ER 2BB 7K); David Buchanan (2 starts, 11IP 9H 2ER 4BB 8K)

Not Hot Starters: Ranfi Casimiro (4.2IP 4H 4ER 2BB 3K), Colin Kleven (2 starts, 9IP 17H 12ER 3BB 5K); Sean O’ Sullivan (4IP 5H 4ER 2BB 4K); Barry Enright (4IP 5H 4ER 2BB 4K); Jesse Biddle (2 starts, 10.1IP 15H 8ER 3BB 11K)

Hot Relievers: Kenny Giles (3.1IP 1H 0ER 1BB 9K; 3 saves); Luis Garcia (4.2IP 0H 0ER 2BB 6K, SV);  Lino Martinez (5.1IP 3H 0ER 1BB 6K); Hector Neris (5IP 3H 0ER 1BB 4K);  Ulysses Joaquin (4IP 1H 0ER 0BB 6K); Jeremy Horst (3.1IP 2H 0ER 1BB 7K); Julio Reyes (3IP 0H 0ER 0BB 4K); Colton Murray (3IP 1H 0ER 1BB 4);  Neifi Ogando (2.2IP 1H 0ER); Honorable Mention: Guth

Not Hot Relievers:  Kyle Simon (2IP 5H 6ER 4BB 1): Jesen Therrien (2.2IP 7H 6ER 1BB 1K); Ryan O’Sullivan (3IP 6H 4ER 2BB 4K); Keivi Rojas (3IP 4H 3ER 3BB 2K); Lee Ridenhour (2IP 5H 2ER); Phillippe Aumont (4 walks in 2 IP)

24 thoughts on “Hot or Not

  1. Def overlooked Rupp. From what I understand, Zach Green’s swing path is as long as the Garden State Parkway. All of the anointed “3rd base depth” doesn’t look so deep now. Walding, Green, Jan Hernandez (body and range say 1st), Encarnacion (same as Hernandez), Franco (same as previous 2)…better hope Asche locks it in for 5+ years. We’re looking at some pretty bad baseball for the next 5 years or so.

    1. Wow six games into the season where these guys are going to play 140-150 games yet somehow you are able to make a statement like that about the 3B depth if this org. Unreal.

  2. Constructive criticism/suggestion: can we not do hot/not based on batting average. I like to think this group is more advanced than that.

    1. That comment was not properly phrased. Not a dig on the author. More of a request to the group to come up with suggestions on how we should look at “hot”

      1. Don’t try to out smart yourself batting average is still the #1factor in whether or not a hitter is in a hot streak. It’s not likely you would have a killer OPS or OBP without a strong BA.

    2. Who cares about walks in milb? I want to know which players are putting the bat on the ball and getting hits. Too many milb pitchers are wild, allowing for lower skill players to rack up a solid obp. Avg may not be the best metric, but I don’t think Obp or ops (driven by a high Obp) is either. Maybe including the triple slash will tell a better story.

      1. “Who cares about walks in milb?”

        It’s true that there is only one group that cares about walks in milb – the group of people who are interested in correctly projecting which minor league players will enjoy major league success.

  3. Cam Rupp 263/440/1.335
    Dylan Cozens 321/321/714

    I’d say both players are hot but Rupp clearly is doing more damage. I’m a big fan of OPS but how you get there is different for each player. Ben Revere is currently 324/359/737 so if you went off OPS alone it would leave Revere out of the mix but damage numbers are never going to be part of his game therefore it is likely he will never have an eye popping OPS.

    The Hot determination should consider multiple functions of offense. I agree a 1.335 OPS is Hot and sexy but so is 324/359 from your lead off spot.

  4. He may not have the batting average right now, but it’s nice to see Zach Green with only 4 Ks so far. That said, I probably just jinxed it and he’ll have 4 more today.

    Luis Garcia seems like the forgotten man among our hard throwing relievers with control issues, but I think he may be in the majors again sooner rather than later.

  5. One guy who doesn’t quite make the hot list is Dugan. But despite the lack of power so far, and the fact that his BA is somewhat BABIP driven, he is (very slightly because of sample size) stock up in my view – biggest concern last year was AA BB rate. The early signs are the the people who though that that was just a blip, and that he would return to his prior good BB rate are correct. BB rate so far 16.7% – in fact in 24 PA he already has only one fewer BB than last season (AA only) in 226 PA.

    I don’t really see Dugan as a high ceiling prospect, but I could see him brought up as the regular if Byrd is traded at the deadline. More likely might be a September call up this year, and a regular spot in 2015.

    He is a prime example, by the way, of why minor league BB data DOES matter. If he had continued his 2013 AA BB% performance in 2014, he would be a non prospect. To be fair, if he continues to show good plate discipline this year, he also supports the argument that we shouldn’t get TOO worried by poor BB data in a SSS when a player is promoted to a new level, But sustained poor BB data is a massive red flag.

    1. I’ve been a bit of a Dugan skeptic compared to some people on this site, but am beginning to be won over.

      1. What’s nice about Dugan is that he seems to be passing both the statistical tests and the scouting tests (swing is said to be short and sweet); he also has some fairly positive athleticism going for him. If he can develop some consistent power, he’ll be very interesting, although I always take Reading hitting stats with a huge grain of salt. By comparison, good pitching stats in Reading (and throughout the Eastern League) mean a lot, and speak well of Severino Gonazlez’s performance.

      2. I’d love to hear him talk honestly about plate discipline and 2013 compared to 2014. Yes, 24 PA is a minuscule SS, and even 226 PA not that high, but he’s walking more that seven times as often in 2014 as in 2013. That suggests a significant change in approach.

        1. Though I agree with all your general points, I kind of think we should resist the temptation to draw any conclusions at all based on the results to this point, whether it be about Dugan, Rupp or anyone. Except maybe Giles. If he keeps striking out nearly everyone he faces in AA I think the Phillies may have to say SSS be damned and call him up. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that he is a badass.

          1. Yeah, I basically agree – though Dugan’s increased BB rate is SO extreme (and let’s remember that BB rates stabilize quickly) that I would say it almost certainly means SOMETHING – I’m just not sure what. 🙂

          2. Kenny Giles is plain old nasty. He’ll probably be promoted to LhV by late April or early May if this keeps up and dominates there as he has at Reading, you could be looking at a late May or early June arrival date. He’s probably among the top 5 or 6 hardest throwers in all of professional baseball. I just hope to God that “Troy” McClure doesn’t tell him to keep all of his pitches down at the knees; true power pitchers live up in the zone – that’s certainly where Giles is most effective.

        1. Yeah, it’s not bad, especially when combined with the plate discipline. I think Kelly Dugan will end up in the majors somehow. I just have no idea right now how good he will be – and I don’t think any of us really has a good read on that.

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