The winner of the first annual Phuture Phillies Hitting Award is Rhys Hoskins.
The co-winners of the first annual Phuture Phillies Pitching Award are Tom Eshelman and Sixto Sanchez. Continue reading First Annual Phuture Phillies Hitting and Pitching Awards, 2017
Lehigh Valley
Pat Venditte, 32, Signed as a free agent in 2017; 52 games, 9-5 with a 3.36ERA: 2SV; 69.2IP 54H 36BB 69K; .217 opp avg; 1.29WHIP; 0.94 GO/AO; .218 vs LHH, .216 vs RHH, .286 last 30 days; 4.7BB/8.9K per 9; Venditte did a real nice job this year for Lehigh Valley other than a walk rate that was too high; He succeeded in the may roles he was asked to fill. Grade: B; 2018: ANother organization….with all of the Phils bullpen issues this year, if he didn’t get a chance with the big club, he never will. He will look to go where he may have a shot.
Pedro Beato, 31, Signed as a free agent in 2017; 52 games, 1-3 with a 2.75ERA; 33SV; 55.2IP 41H 20BB 42K; .202 opp avg; 1.10WHIP; 3.2BB/6.8K per 9; .222 vs LHH, .186 vs RHH, .200 opp avg last 30 days; Beato set the Lehigh Valley all time saves record and was one of the primary reason the ‘Pigs hung on to a playoff spot. Beato had a 1 appearance cup of coffee with the Phils, during which he was injured and ended up on the DL. He worked hard, rehabbed and helped the ‘Pigs down the stretch; Grade: A; 2018: Another organization…I don’t believe the Phils feel he has a future in their bullpen
Michael Mariot, 28, Re-signed as free agent in 2017; 45 games, 7-2 with a 4.42ERA; 2SV; 57IP 56H 21BB 63K; .257 opp avg; 1.35WHIP; 0.68 GO/AO; 3.3BB/9.9K per 9; .241 vs LHH, .267 vs RHH, .225 last 30 days; After a brutal April, Mariot came around to have a solid season for Lehigh Valley, getting plenty of work and pitching multiple innings in the mid late innings many times. Grade: C; 2018: Another organization
Cesar Ramos, 33, Signed as free agent in 2017; 40 games (11 starts); 5-4 with a 4.00ERA; 1SV; 92.1IP 91H 31BB 74K; .259 opp avg; 1.32 WHIP; 0.92 GO/AO; 3.0BB/7.2K per 9; .272 vs LHH, .252 vs RHH, .313 opp avg last 30 days; Ramos had one of the most difficult jobs in the ‘Pigs pen as a spot starter and long reliever, often not knowing what role he would land in. He did a nice job most specifically early in the year eating necessary innings. Grade: B-; 2018: Another organization
Colton Murray, 27, Phils 13th round pick in 2011; 41 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 2-2 with a 4.58ERA; 3SV; 53IP 58H 16BB 63K; .282 opp avg; 1.40 WHIP; For Lehigh Valley: 33 games, 2-2 with a 5.53ERA; 40.2IP 49H 15BB 45K; .301 opp avg; 1.57WHIP; 3.3BB/10.0K per 9; .294 vs LHH, .305 vs RHH; Murray started the year on the 40 man and had just a miserable year. He was removed from the 40 man and relegated to mostly mop up innings for the ‘Pigs. Grade: D-; 2018: I would be surprised to see him back. Continue reading Report Card–Relief Pitching–LV, REA, CW
One of our readers suggested I run a poll so that you can select the best minor league pitcher and hitter in the organization. The Phillies will be announcing their 2017 Paul Owens award winners soon. So, I figured it would be best to run the Phuture Phillies poll before they make their announcements. Continue reading Phuture Phillies Hitting and Pitching Awards Polls, 2017
This past week, a reader asked for my opinion on whom the Phillies would protect from the Rule 5 Draft. I began to draft an answer, and realized that projecting which prospects to protect requires more thought and many more words than should be in a comment thread. Since I can’t answer this without considering many factors, I decided to put in an article. This way the discussion will be contiguous in one location. And I do expect there to be discussion. Continue reading 40-Man Roster Construction Following the 2017 Season
The next several weeks will feature a report card for every player in the organization. The “grade” that will be given is a grade that is based on my pre-season expectations on how that player would perform against what actually happened. Included are players currently on the Phils that bounced back and forth between LV and Philly.
Lehigh Valley
Tom Eshelman, 23, Acquired from Houston in 2015; 23 starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 13-3 with a 2.40ERA; 150IP 128H 18BB 102K; .233 opp avg; 0.97WHIP; 0.91GO/AO ; Eshelman was consistently outstanding all year. Not overpowering but is a consistent strike thrower that keeps hitters very off balanced. He has a high pitching IQ and having watched Eshelman start probably a dozen games live over the last 2 years, I believe he will be a very solid major league starter. Grade: A; 2018: Will compete for the #4-5 spot in the Phils rotation, but importantly does not need to be added to the 40 man until the end of next season. With that, I think a start to the season with the ‘Pigs is more likely than not.
Henderson Alvarez, 27, SIgned as a free agent in 2017; Started three games for Lehigh Valley during the last two weeks of the season and was 2-0 with a 2.84ERA; .268 opp avg; 1.32WHIP; 2.8BB/3.8K per 9; Alvarez was a much needed addition late in the season to a Lehigh Valley rotation decimated by injury and callus. He did a very nice job but likely not a long term future for ALvarez here.
Mark Appel, 26, Acquired from Houston in 2015; 17 starts; 5-4 with a 5.27ERA; .284 opp avg; 1.76WHIP; 5.8BB/6.6K per 9; .326 vs LHH, .253 vs RHH, .292 with RISP; Another partially lost season for Appel who was shut down in July with arm problems once again. It was much of the same for Appel with a combination of command issues and injury problems leading to another disappointing season for the former #1 draft pick. He has begun getting rehab innings in and I would expect him to participate over the Winter in game action. Grade: D; 2018: On 40 man roster, with 2 options left currently, much depends on how he may prove his health over the winter.
Brandon Leibrandt, 24, Phils 6th round pick in 2014; 25 starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 11-5 with a 3.62ERA; 136.2IP 136H 47BB 105K; .265 opp avg; 1.34WHIP; 0.96GO/AO; 3.1BB/6.9K per 9; For Lehigh Valley: 12 starts, 5-3 with a 3.94ERA; 64IP 59H 24BB 53K; .244 opp avg; 1.30WHIP; 3.4BB/7.5K per 9; After missing most of 2016 injured, Leibrandt showed very nice progression this season, proving he was a more than capable AAA starter. Grade: B; 2018: Lehigh Valley rotation Continue reading Report Card–Starting Pitching, LV, REA and CW
Over the past weekend, Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle published his yearly prospect survey (The Reading Eagle is a subscription site). Mike requested input from about two dozen industry people who watch or cover a fair amount of games and players among the Phillies’ affiliates. He received 17 responses and used a weighted scoring system to determine a player’s perceived value (first-place votes earning 30 points, second place 29 points, etc.). I was one of the 17 respondents. Continue reading Reading Eagle End of Season Prospect Poll, 2017
Here’s another article submitted by one our readers. As always, neither the statistical opinions stated in a submitted article nor the interpretations of same are those of the staff here at Phuture Phillies. But, in this case, I’m hoping V is right. And would be hard pressed to argue from a contrarian point of view. Continue reading Rhys Hoskins is going to be an All Star
Decimated by both injury and roster roulette, Lehigh Valley has lost 9 of their last 11 games and are 28-33 since owning the best record in minor league baseball at 41-19. A disappointing weekend at home against Charlotte, during which they lost 3 of 4 and are now 69-52 and 8 games back of division leading Scranton. In the race for a wild card spot, the ‘Pigs have fallen 0.5 game behind Rochester. After a much needed day off tomorrow, Lehigh Valley travels to Norfolk for three games then to CHarlotte for three over next weekend. The ‘Pigs current roster contains just 10 players who were on the opening day roster.
Probables: Tues: Eshelman, Wed: Lively, Thur: Taveras, Fri: Thompson, Sat: Leibrandt
News and Notes: On Sunday, Scott Kingery extended his current hitting streak to 12 games, during which time he is hitting .314. Kingery has hit in 28 of his last 29 games dating back a month.
—JP Crawford has now hit in 9 straight games, during which he is hitting .389. Since July 1st, Crawford has been on base 35 out of 40 games and has hit .400, while hitting 11HR, tied for the IL lead. Continue reading Lehigh Valley Report
Here’s another article submitted by one our readers. I think the conclusion is one that a lot of readers grudgingly accept because of the subject’s wide variation in his splits. As before, the writer offers several comps to support his premise.
As always, neither the statistical opinions stated in a submitted article nor the interpretations of same are those of the staff here at Phuture Phillies.
Is Dylan Cozens A Legit Prospect?
by V1again
I like to use comparable players to gauge a prospect’s profile. I am not a scout and don’t pretend to be one. I look at stats, body type and scouting reports to try to find similar players and then compare their performance at similar ages. Here is my breakdown of Dylan Cozens’ prospect profile…
Dylan has been a lightening rod of a prospect since his high draft spot. He is truly an extreme prospect. Everything he does with the bat is extreme. He has a serious carrying tool in his 80 Raw Power. He is so strong that he doesn’t have to even swing hard to destroy a baseball. When he connects it is a thing of beauty. Majestic. Judge-esq power. It makes you dream…but the question is how that is going to translate against major league pitching.
Dylan is a giant of a man. I have seen him play live in Lakewood and he has a cannon for an arm in right. I saw both him and Tocci in the same outfield and I think Cozens has a stronger arm. I saw him throw a laser beam from right to home plate to get an out. It was very impressive. Cozens moves like a locomotive. I mean that analogy. He is not a fluid athlete, so he does not have great lateral movement, but once he gets going, he can move fast. Like a locomotive. He could probably play defensive outfield in the majors, but he will never be a “good” defensive outfielder at the major league level. In my mind, I was thinking a Pat Burrell type outfielder when I saw him play. Not going to cover a lot of ground, but will throw out guys with that arm. He will also never be a base stealer and no one thinks that he will be a high batting average guy. So the entire profile centers around his raw power translating.
As mentioned above, I looked for comparable players to see how he is performing relatively. Here are a few good comps:
Chris Davis is a strikeout machine. He led the majors in strikeouts in 2016, producing a 32.9% k rate. He also had a 13.2% walk rate and a .239 ISO and overall line of .221/.332/.459. This year his numbers are worse, but let’s go with 2016 as his profile. As a 23 year old in AAA (same age as Cozens) Davis had a 12.9% walk rate, a 20.1% k rate with a .194 ISO and a line of .327/.418/.521.
Compare that to Cozens line this season: 9.9% walk rate, a 34.3% k rate, a .220 ISO and a line of .223/.306/.443. I mean it isn’t close. Davis’ line is far, far superior. But focus on the k rates. In AAA, Davis had a 20% k rate. In the majors that jumped to a career 31.8% k rate. Cozens’ k rate is 2.5% higher in AAA than the MLB strikeout leader has at the MLB level and 14% higher than Davis’ comparable AAA season. Cozens also has a significantly lower walk rate.
As I have mentioned before, it is typical to see a k rate go up 4-6% from AAA to the Majors. Davis is a bit of an outlier as his went up nearly 12%. This 4-6% increase in k rate doesn’t happen all of the time. But it is pretty common. If this trend holds, Cozens is looking at a MLB k rate of nearly 40%. Who has nearly that k rate in the majors? It is very rare to find a major league player with a k rate above 35%. I went back to 2010 and only found it a few times. And even then, no one came close to 40% until this year…Joey Gallo has a 38.6% k rate this year. If that holds, Gallo would have the highest k rate since 2010 (note I didn’t go back further, but my guess is it would be the highest in a long, long time).
As a 23 year old in the majors Joey Gallo has the worst K rate in the majors. Here is Gallo’s line: 12.8 % walk rate, 38.6 % k rate, a .341 ISO (2nd in all baseball) with a batting line of .205/.318/.546. As a 22 year old, (a year younger than Cozens), Gallo’s AAA line was: 15.7% walk rate, 34.6 % k rate, .290 ISO, with a batting line of .240/.367/.529
So comparing Cozens’ AAA line to a year younger Gallo’s line, Gallo walked in 6.8% more plate appearances, struck out the same amount and Gallo had a 70 point higher ISO. Simply put, Cozens is Gallo with materially fewer walks and materially less in game power. What does that look like at the major league level? My guess is a hitter that has a line of .210/.280/.520, which produces a .800 OPS, that will strike out nearly 40% of the time. You can count on one hand the major league players with an .800 (or lower) OPS who strikes out 30% of the time. Of course, none strikeout 40% k rate. Cut the sample size down to Corner Outfielders, and the comparables looks even more bleak. If you focus on the 30% k rate benchmark, the player you are looking at is Kris Davis, on the As. His line this year is 11.3% walk rate, 31.6% k rate, .263 ISO, for a batting line of .238/.325/.500. In AAA, Kris had a 11.0% walk rate, 21.0% k rate, a .218 ISO and a line of .255/.349/.473. Comparing Kris Davis’ major league stats to Cozens’ AAA stats, Cozens has a lower walk rate, a significantly higher k rate while hitting with less power. That is to Davis’ major league stats. Comparing Cozens to Davis’ AAA stats and it is a blowout. Cozens has a lower walk rate, and a 13.3% higher k rate. Think about that for a second. It is astounding.
How about one more comp. As a 21 year old in AAA, Adam Dunn had a line of .329/.441/.676 with a k rate of 20% and a walk rate of 15%. Dunn was 2 years younger than Cozens’ AAA year and his statistical profile absolutely destroys Cozens’. I mean, not one stat is close. Dunn went on to have a career MLB K rate of 28.6%. Which is 5.7% lower than Cozens’ AAA k rate. Again, this blows my mind. When you think about Adam Dunn as a player, you think a true two outcome player – homers or strikeouts. Yet Cozens is striking out 5.7% more in AAA than Dunn did at the major league level.
Ok one last comp. Ryan Howard, a strikeout machine, had a career k rate of 28.2%. Ryan fricken Howard had a major league k rate 6% lower than Cozens’ AAA line.
Ok, I have made my point. I keep looking for extremes and I simply can’t find anyone who struggles to make contact with the baseball at the rate that Cozens’ does. That player just doesn’t exist in the major leagues. And that is the point. It is just too hard to make an impact if you don’t put the ball in play 40% of the time. Heck, it is hard to stick around if you don’t put the ball in play 30% of the time, especially as a corner outfielder.
Oh, I almost forgot, Cozens can’t hit left handed pitching. He has struggled against left handed pitching in the upper levels. So in all likelihood, he would be a platoon player with that line.
Now, I am 99% confident that Cozens will get a cup of coffee. And it is certainly possible that he runs into enough balls as a platoon to hang around for a few years. He will definitely make it on Sports Center with a big blast. But unless he can somehow dramatically lower his k rate, while facing far better pitching than he saw in AAA, then he doesn’t seem to have a major league comp of even a below average regular.
What’s the “hope” scenario? While it is possible that he dramatically lowers his k rate, it is extremely unlikely if you use MLB history as a guide. Very few players have a lower k rate in the majors than in the minors. And as you saw in all of the comps, it is far more likely with someone of his profile to see their K rate jump dramatically when getting to the majors. So the hope scenario is that he maintains his AAA k rate, while materially increasing his walk rate and also his in game power and becomes Joey Gallo. A player with an .860 OPS who strikes out 39% of the time and is average defensively. It seems like a low probability outcome to me, but anything is possible.
Here’s another article submitted by one our readers. I received it Tuesday, but didn’t get around to reading it until this morning. So, some of the data will be a couple days out of date, but nowhere near enough to invalidate the premise stated.
As always, neither the statistical opinions stated in a submitted article nor the interpretations of same are those of the staff here at Phuture Phillies.
Mickey Moniak and the 70 Hit Tool
by V1again
Everyone needs to dramatically lower expectations on Mickey Moniak. He is not a future star. IMO, his peak value is a poor man’s Odubel. Here is my argument.
First, I was a big fan of the Mickey Moniak pick. So this is a mea culpa. And I know he is only 19..but that is not as much of an excuse for his poor performance as you may think..at least for elite prospects.
His value as a 1:1 pick (and thus a possible star) was entirely due to a 70 hit tool projection. He has good, but not elite speed and will likely slow down as he adds weight. He will never have more than 40/45 power. His defense is good, but I don’t hear reports of a future gold glover. So it all comes back to the 70 hit tool. Does he have a 70 hit tool or not?
Since I am not a scout, I looked online into what a 70 hit tool really is. I found this article: http://www.fangraphs.com/ blogs/scouting-explained-the- 20-80-scouting-scale/
It is a good article. In order to have a 70 hit tool, you have to hit.300+ in the majors. Not one season. Across a career. It probably should focus on OB% rather than BA, but it is good enough for now.
I then looked at the minor league numbers of those who have a 70 hit tool in the majors. By the way, many of them were 19 in low A (killing the “he’s so young argument”). Here is what I found:
That was basically across the board. I also found, with rare exception (Mookie Betts):
My theory on hitting is that all a hitter can do is make hard contact in pitches in the zone.
As of this writing, Moniak has two red flags:
Those are not elite by any stretch. Neither is really good to be honest. His BABIP is higher than his OB%, which is not good. It means he is likely lucky to have the OB% that he has, which at .312 is not good.
As a comp, Mookie Betts was 19 years old in Low A. His walk rate was 11% and his K rate was 10% and his ISO was .04. The next year in high A his walk rate was 17%, his k rate was 12% and his ISO was .181. That is what an elite hit tool looks like.
Another comp, Christian Yelich. As a 19yo in low A, Yelich had a 10.6% walk rate, a 19.6% k rate with a 171 ISO and 32 stolen bases. He hit 312/388/484. Again, that is what an elite hit tool looks like in low A.
As a player moves up, the pitching gets better. So if you can’t hit Low A, you are in trouble.
I would also say Mickey’s 3rd red flag is that he isn’t improving as the year is going on. On the contrary, his July numbers are his worst. They are just awful. Look at the top hitting prospects, all of them improved at each level as the year went on.
Now, I am not saying Mickey is a bust. And I know he is only 19. What I am saying is that his performance indicates that he does not have an elite hitting tool.
So what is he? Well, the chart says that a 60 hit tool is a .280 career hitter. That sounds like his peak value to me. So let’s go with the profile of 60 hit, 40/45 power, 55 speed, 60 defense in center (60 arm). That is a good player. A productive player. A player who one year might make an All-star team at 28/29 years old. But not an elite player by any stretch.
You know who that sounds like?
Last year Odubel hit 286/361/420 with 15 homers and 25 stolen bases. That is a 60 hit / 45 power profile according to Fangraphs’ chart. Odubel also played really good CF defense (let’s call it a 60, but again, I am not a scout). The 25 stolen bases separates him from Mickey. I don’t see Mickey doing that in the majors but maybe. Hopefully. And hopefully Moniak can get to 15 homers in the majors.
One last comp, as a 19 year old in low A, Odubel had a 15.4% k rate, 4.8% bb rate and hit 306/349/394 with 34 stolen bases. He did that with only an .088 ISO. Those numbers blow away Mikey’s performance this year to be honest.
Power always fills in with age, but contact ability doesn’t. It is what it is. Mickey does not have a 70 hit tool. I hope he has a 60 hit tool. I believe that he will be a productive major league player, but has no chance of being a star.
I wrote this article because I like Mikey. I am NOT a “hater.” And I sincerely hope that I come to regret putting this in writing. I wrote this article because I want you to enjoy him for what he is. Don’t hold his 1:1 draft pick against him.
Phuture Phillies 