Report Card–Starting Pitching–Lakewood, WIL and GCL

Lakewood

Luis Carrasco, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 10 starts, 3-3 with a 3.33ERA between Williamsport and Lakewood; 51.1IP 44H 24BB 31K; .230 opp avg; 1.32WHIP; 1.54 GO/AO; 4.2BB/5.4K per 9; 4 starts for Lakewood; 1-3 with a 4.43ERA; .280 opp avg; 1.52WHIP; 4.4BB/4/7K per 9; Adequate season for Carrasco who threw well enough in Williamsport to join Lakewood.  After dominating in the GCL in 2016, he looked much more average against more advanced competition.  Grade: C+; 2018: Lakewood

Bailey Falter, 20, Phils 5th round pick in 2015; 21 starts, 8-7 with a 2.99ERA; 114.1IP 117H 23BB 105K; .270 opp avg; 1.22WHIP; 1.10GO AO; .331 vs LHH, .231 vs RHH, .220 last 30 days; 1.8BB/8.3K per 9; A very strong year for Falter who is a good example of what outstanding command can do.  His extremely low walk rate allowed for an increased occasional margin for error when challenging hitters.  Grade: B+; 2018: Clearwater

Adonis Medina, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 22 starts, 4-9 with a 3.01ERA; 119.2IP 103H 39BB 133K; .227 opp avg; 1.19WHIP; 1.22 GO/AO; 3.0BB/10.0K per 9; .258 vs LHH .200 vs RHH, .204 last 30 days; .214 with RISP; Outstanding year for Medina who albeit with a poor won/loss record, continued show progress and potential as a top of the rotation starter in the upcoming years.  Grade: A-; 2018: Clearwater

Nick Fanti, 20, Phils 31st round pick in 2015; 21 starts, 9-2 with a 2.54ERA; 120.1IP 87H 28BB 121K; .200 opp avg; 0.96 WHIP; 0.70GO/AO; 2.1BB/9.1K per 9; 10 starts Post All Star game, 2.88ERA and .221 opp avg; After spending two seasons in the GCL, Fanti moved to Lakewood and was tremendous, allowing 2 runs or less in 12 of his 21 starts.  There was concern that he would slow down in the second half but proved the doubters wrong, including throwing a no hitter July 17th.  Grade: A; Certainly Clearwater…I see one of the Medina/Falter/Fanti trio double bumping to Reading.

Felix Paulino, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 28 games (15 starts); 5-9 with a 4.53ERA; 97.1IP 100H 29BB 87K; .269 opp avg; 1.33WHIP; 1.53GO/AO; 2.7BB/8.0K per 9; .285 vs LHP, .255 vs RHP; .178 last 30 days; Paulino pitched extremely well towards the end of the year, but generally a very average year.  He does show promise.  Grade: C; 2018: Lakewood to start

Alejandro Requena, 20, Acquired from Colorado in 2017; 21 starts in South Atlantic League between Ashville and Lakewood; 9-4 with a 2.74ERA; 128IP 109H 25BB 104K; .235 opp avg; 1.05WHIP; 1.8BB/7.3K per 9; .263 vs LHH, .223 vs RHH; Not enough work with Lakewood to pass educated judgment but early returns were as positive as his numbers this year.  The Phils will have a glut of starters with the numbers to move to Clearwater from Lakewood and Requena is in that mix with a double jump not outside the realm of possibility.

Williamsport

Kyle Young, 19, Phils 22nd round pick in 2016; 13 games, 7-2 with a 2.77ERA; 65IP 58H 15BB 72K; .237 opp avg; 1.12WHIP; 1.42GO/AO; 2.1BB/10.0K per 9; .231 vs LHH, .240 vs RHH, .267 last 30 days; Excellent season for the 19 year old lefty with Randy Johnson like stature.  There is a whole lot of talent there to develop.  Grade: A; 2018: Lakewood

Will Stewart, 20, Phils 20th round pick in 2015; 13 starts; 4-2 with a 4.18ERA; 60.1IP 64H 25BB 58K; 3.7BB/8.7K per 9; .267 opp avg; 1.48WHIP; 3.07GO/AO; .258 vs LHH;  .272 vs RHH, .318 last 30 days; After two years in the GCL, STewart was solid this season in the Williamsport rotation.  Its going to be quite a numbers game at the lower levels and where Stewart begins likely will have plenty to due with how he looks in the Spring.  Grade: B-

Julian Garcia, 22, Phils 10th round pick in 2016; 14 starts; 4-5 with a 3.90ERA; 60IP 47H 29BB 82K; .217 opp avg; 1.27WHIP; 0.74GO/AO; 4.3BB/12.3K per 9; .258 vs LHH, .188 vs RHH, .253 last 30 days; Garcia’s numbers ended up looking pretty good after spending his second season in Williamsport.  He walks too many hitters but also has the ability to strike out more than a few, which leads me to be a transition back to the bullpen may be in the offing.  Grade: B-; 2018: Lakewood

Andrew Brown, 19, Phils 13th round pick in 2016; 13 games (10 starts); 4-4 with a 3.11ERA; 63.2IP 56H 19BB 47K; .236 opp avg; 1.18 WHIP; 2.7BB/6.6K per 9; .274 vs LHH, .206 vs RHH, .260 last 30 days; Brown threw very well this year as a starter after appearing exclusively as a reliever in the GCL in 2016.  Grade: B; 2018: Lakewood but cognizant of likely innings limitations.

Spencer Howard, 21, Phils 2nd round pick in 2017; 9 games, 1-1 with a 4.45ERA; 28.1IP 22H 15BB 40K; .214 opp avg; 1.41WHIP; 4.8BB/12.7K per 9; .211 vs LHH, .217 vs RHH, .157 last 30 days; Unhittable at times, the opposition did damage because of Howard’s lack of control.  The free passes need to come drastically down long term.  Grade: C; 2018: Lakewood

Ramon Rosso, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2015; 6 games (5 starts) between GCL and Williamsport; 1-0 with a 2.33ERA; 27IP 19H 12BB 36K; 4.0BB/12.0K per 9; 1.15WHIP; .201 opp avg; Rosso was strong in his limited work stateside.  He impressed in the Dominican League before coming across.  2018: Lakewood

 

GCL

Jose Jiminez, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2015; 10 games (6 starts); 2-2 with a 5.59ERA; 38.2IP 44H 18BB 24K; .293 opp avg; 1.60 WHIP; 4.2BB/5.6K per 9; .257 vs LHH, .304 vs RHH; Mediocre results with command issues in Jiminez’s debut stateside.  Grade: C-; 2018: GCL

Ethan Lindow, 18, Phils 5th round pick in 2017; 8 starts, 2-2 with a 4.55ERA: 27.2IP 26H 12BB 34K; 3.9BB/11.1K per 9; .250 vs LHH, .239 vs RHH, 1.37 WHIP; 0.96 GO/AO;  Decent debut for Lindow who showed he could overpower hitters at times at this level.  Grade: C+; 2018: Williamsport

Jhordany Mezquita, 18, Phils 8th round pick in 2017; 9 starts, 3-0 with a 0.72ERA; 37.2IP 20H 12BB 35K; .160 opp avg; 0.85WHIP; 2.9BB/8.4K per 9; .222 vs LHH, .155 vs RHH, Excellent professional debut for Mezquita who may prove to be a real steal for the Phils.  Grade: A; 2018: May start at Lakewood to get early season innings with potential drop back to Williamsport

Francisco Morales, 17, Signed as a free agent in 2016; 10 games (9 starts); 3-2 with a 3.05ERA; 41.1IP 34H 20BB 44K; .225 opp avg; 1.31 WHIP; 4.4BB/9.6K per 9; .255 vs LHH, .210 vs RHH; Very strong professional debut for the 17 year old.  Grade: B+; 2018: WIllaimsport

Sandro Rosario, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2015: 11 games (7 starts); 1-4 with a 4.22ERA; 49IP 66H 19BB 37K; .330 opp avg; 1.73WHIP; 3.5BB/6.8K per 9; .333 vs LHH, .329 vs RHH; Rosario, already old for the GCL was way too hittable; Grade: D; 2018: If he is back, it will be in the GCL

Manuel Silva, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2015; 9 starts, 6-0 with a 2.60ERA; 45IP 42H 14BB 30BB; .261 opp avg; 1.24WHIP; 2.03 GO/AO; 2.8BB/6.0K per 9; .235 vs LHH, .268 vs RHH; The peripherals arent quite as jaw dropping as the W/L and ERA, however a very good debut for Silva.  Grade: B+; 2018: WIlliamsport

18 thoughts on “Report Card–Starting Pitching–Lakewood, WIL and GCL

  1. Wow…about dozen quality arms that have the opportunity to get to the show.
    And every time I see Falter reminds me of Cole Hamels…delivery and physical profile.
    Hope the stuff comes around like Hamels.

  2. Great to see control the stike zone is paying off in drafting . I’d like to see Medina get a nice winter ball season. Jim be careful God bless be safe.

    1. This is what this generation needs. Guys who have control. I’d rather have a guy who throws 90 with control and can last 15 years then a guy who can throw 103 but can’t stay healthy for 5 full seasons.

      1. Good then you sign a bunch of Thompson and see what you win. Guys will never get it ,right handers with low velo cant win consistently in major except for a rare few. but you keep wishing for Thompson types. and it will be another 30 yrs until we win. thew. I just cant take it. nuts totally nuts

        1. Exactly. Stuff matters. It matters a lot. If you throw 89 or 90 and are a righty, your career is virtually over before it starts. For every Kyle Hendricks there are 200 Jake Thompsons. You don’t build a pitching staff with guys who throw 90.

          1. Or Rick Porcelllos……leads the majors in HR given up this year…last year he was lights out.
            Consistency is the key…year to year with low velo RHPs there is too much risk.
            Even Greg Maddux was just barely average pitcher…..play-off pitcher that is….come playoffs when facing great offensive teams who had seen him enough.

            1. Greg Maddox World Series stats 2 and 3 ,1 & 1 2.25 era in 95 . 1996 WC he was 1& 1 with an 1.72 era .1999 WS 0 & 1 with a 2.57 . Maddox was 3&1 in 95 post Maddox usually throw over 220.00 ings so teams seen him multiple times. Plus he was 29 when The Braves really started there run . He was 11 and 14 with a 3.27 era in the playoffs. That’s just barley avg maybe when he was 38 to 42 yrs old.

            2. Tim…so lets not count his Cubs (23) and Braves (27) first playoff experiences 20 innings pitched….24 hits and 24 runs……ok.
              So we will just go from prime years of 29 thru 33, nothing from 34 on up…..and just by your criteria…wins and losses…..8-8…… .500, average to me.
              So from 23 thru 33…….9 wins and 19 losses.
              A great regular season pitcher…a less than great playoff pitcher.

            3. He pitched in his First playoff Game at 23 so . He actually was dominate before 29 . you say his Win & lose but not his Era .he was 0 and 2 with 1.37 era in the 1997 NLCS . He was 35 when he was 0 2 5.40 era. To put in a better way Maddox carrier 11 & 14 3. 27 era in post season .
              Randy Johnson 7 & 9 3.50
              Max Scherzer 4 & 4 3.74
              Clayton Kershaw 4 & 7 4.55
              I really don’t think 11 & 14 3.27 era is run of the mill type Pitching. If the that is the pitchers above stink.

          2. The magic numbers seem to be about 92 for a righthander and 90 for a left hander ( that’s just by observation not any true analysis). If a pitcher can reach those levels and have good command, he can be a really good pitcher. Below that, its going to be a struggle longterm

        2. V,V Pivetta look like aces they can’t get out of the 5th ing. Lively and Nola and Lieter have a lot more control and command. That’s what you call an advanced pitcher One that has 3 pitches and up and can control & Command them. Most hitters now
          Have seen 97 mph FB since high school.its when the pitcher can put any of this pitches anywhere he wants.

      2. I was talking about Falter. I’m not very good at explaining things. I’m just trying to say imo stuff and consistancy is a lot more valuable long term than speed. If you throw hard but have little movement you won’t last. But if you throw slower (in todays game it seems like 93 is slow) but have great movement you’ll be around awhile.

    2. I’m guessing that Medina has enough IP on his arm this year and won’t play winter ball. He had an excellent season though. Looking forward to seeing what he does in Clearwater, and possibly Reading, next year.

  3. There are definitely some interesting arms in the lower minors. They’re at least 2-3 years away, but really, all we need is maybe 2 of them to stick in the show as starters.

    1. I agree. I’m very optimistic given the number of young arms from Clearwater A and lower. But given they are at least 3 years away from débuting in Philly and making an impact after getting some experience, how do we improve the pitching in Philly in meantime.?

  4. Gregg, nice work, thanks. Can you start a thread on rotations for next year? I count at least 8 arms for Cwatercand close to that for Lakewood. It’s time to weed the herd for the best arms. I don’t love double jumping guys unless they’re older and have been dominant. I don’t see that ami g any of our arms. Taveras already double jumped during the year but did well enough to probably stay there.

    1. Yeah, I came up with 7 guys for the Clearwater rotation and I was being pretty aggressive in assuming certain guys are going to Reading.

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