Over the past weekend, Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle published his yearly prospect survey (The Reading Eagle is a subscription site). Mike requested input from about two dozen industry people who watch or cover a fair amount of games and players among the Phillies’ affiliates. He received 17 responses and used a weighted scoring system to determine a player’s perceived value (first-place votes earning 30 points, second place 29 points, etc.). I was one of the 17 respondents.
We were asked to –
- Rank the top players in the Phillies’ organization from No. 1 to No. 30, based on their present value to the organization and their major league ceiling/potential.
- Consider a player’s age and performance relative to each level he has played.
- Not include players who are no longer with the organization, nor players who appear to be in the majors for the long haul or have had significant big league time (such as: Mark Leiter and Brock Stassi).
- Consider players who appear to be in the big leagues for a brief time and who are likely will begin next season in the minor leagues (such as: Jorge Alfaro, Pedro Beato, Rhys Hoskins, Ben Lively, Hoby Milner, Cameron Perkins, Ricardo Pinto, Jesen Therrien, Jake Thompson, and Nick Williams).
I notified Mike that I would not be including Nick Williams since he had exceeded the 130 plate appearances needed to maintain rookie and prospect status. Matt Winkelman responded that in addition to Williams he would be excluding Pedro Beato and Jake Thompson.
So, without further eloquence (from The Quiet Man), here is the 2017 Reading Eagle End of Season Prospect Poll (with position, current club, and total points) –
- Scott Kingery, 2B, Lehigh Valley, 519
- Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia, 479
- Sixto Sanchez, P, Clearwater, 470
- J.P. Crawford, SS, Lehigh Valley, 441
Cornelius Randolph, OF, Clearwater, 385
Adam Haseley, OF, Williamsport, 384
- Mickey Moniak, OF, Lakewood, 379
- Franklyn Kilome, P, Reading, 371
- Jorge Alfaro, C, Lehigh Valley, 357
- Adonis Medina, P, Lakewood, 326
- Jhailyn Ortiz, OF, Williamsport, 301
- Thomas Eshelman, P, Lehigh Valley, 294
- JoJoRomero, P, Lakewood, 267
Carlos Tocci, OF, Lehigh Valley, 244
Ranger Suarez, P, Lakewood, 229
- Roman Quinn, OF, Lehigh Valley, 228
- Drew Anderson, P, Lehigh Valley, 218
- Dylan Cozens, OF, Lehigh Valley, 203
- Jessen Therrien, P, Philadelphia, 164
- Seranthony Dominquez, P, Gulf Coast, 146
- Daniel Brito, 2B, Lakewood, 144
- Ben Lively, P, Philadelphia, 137
- Elniery Garcia, P, Reading, 127
- Cole Irvin, P, Reading, 109
- Ricardo Pinto, P, Philadelphia, 108
- Kevin Gowdy, P, (injured), 88
- Spencer Howard, P, Williamsport, 69
- Andrew Pullin, OF, Lehigh Valley, 61
- Jonathan Guzman, SS, Gulf Coast, 56
- Yacksel Rios, P, Philadelphia, 53
- Victor Arano, P, Reading, 50
- Arquimedes Gamboa, SS, Lakewood, 48
- Kyle Young, P, Williamsport, 42
- Cole Stobb, 3B, Williamsport, 36
- Nick Fanti, P, Lakewood, 31
- McKenzie Mills, P, Clearwater, 29
- Darick Hall, 1B, Lakewood, 28
- Jose Taveras, P, Lehigh Valley, 28
- Edgar Garcia, P, Clearwater, 28
- Alberto Tirado, P, Reading, 23
- Connor Seabold, P, Williamsport, 20
- Alejandro Requena, P, Lakewood, 18
Jose Gomez, SS, Clearwater, 15
Brandon Leibrandt, P, Lehigh Valley, 15
Mitch Walding, 3B, Reading, 12
- Brayan Gonzalez, 2B, Gulf Coast, 10
- Jiandido Tromp, OF, Reading, 10
- Austin Davis, P, Reading, 6
- Paul Rivas, 2B, Williamsport, 3
- 17 people turned in ballots
- First place votes were worth 30 points, second place 29, and so on
- Among those not considered for the rankings, due to time spent in the majors: Nick Williams, Jake Thompson, Brock Stassi, Mark Leiter, Nick Pivetta.
For your enjoyment, here is my response to Mike.
Here is my top 30 prospects list. It contains 13 of the players I included in my top 25 last year.
I have considered present value as you requested, as well as ceiling/potential. My list contains just 18 of the players listed in the MLB top 30. When push came to shove, I decided to not include the marginal players that make their top 30 – the back end starters, the mid-to-long relievers, the 4th outfielders, the back up catchers, and the back up middle infielder types.
I decided to place more emphasis on the players I’ve seen who might have star potential, those who haven’t been relegated to the classifications I listed above. My list includes a lot of the younger guys I like. However, it does not include still more players who have me excited about the rosters for the Low A teams next year.
Well, here goes.
- Rhys Hoskins – on performance alone he is the best player in the organization
- Scott Kingery – another excellent performer
- Jorge Alfaro
- J.P. Crawford
- Sixto Sanchez – I didn’t want to rank him this high at his age, but he’s the best pitcher we’ve got
- Franklyn Kilome
- Cole Irvin
- Ranger Suarez
- Adonis Medina
- JoJo Romero
- Seranthony Dominguez
- Jhailyn Ortiz
- Drew Anderson
- Jesen Therrien
- Edgar Garcia
- Adam Haseley
- Mickey Moniak
- Cornelius Randolph
- Greg Pickett
- Bailey Falter
- Colby Fitch
- Kyle Young
- Daniel Brito
- Carlos Tocci
- Nick Fanti
- Simon Muzziotti
- Ben Pelletier
- Jonathan Guzman
- Brayan Gonzalez
- Yahir Gurrola
I realize that my list is very “bottom-heavy” but there are so many more young guys I like who could probably be on my list next year – Jhordany Mezquita, Francisco Morales, Jose Jimenez, Ethan Lindow, Ben Brown, Rafael Caravajal, Jakob Hernandez. Anton Kuznetsov, Dalton Guthrie, Jake Holmes, Jesus Alastre, Darick Hall, and Jose Gomez. I really, really, really like these young guys and can’t wait til everyone gets to see them.
And just to make it easy for you, the 12 players from the MLB Top 30 who I did not include in my top 30 are – Dylan Cozens (performance), Roman Quinn (injury), Kevin Gowdy (injury), Cole Stobbe (performance), Jose Gomez (new to org), Elniery Garcia (suspension), Spencer Howard (new to org), McKenzie Mills (new to org), Luis Garcia (new to org), Victor Arano (performance), Francisco Morales (too early to rank), and J.D. Hammer (new to org).
Just as in previous years, I tried focusing on the prospect’s “present value to the organization and their major league ceiling/potential”. This year, I was more mindful of “a player’s age and performance relative to each level he has played”. However, I went a little further and excluded the marginal types I cited above in my reply to Mike. The players I see most often are the players for whom I can still envision higher ceilings. Therefore, the back end of my top 30 is greatly influenced by the prospects I saw in extended spring training and the GCL. Though their risk is “extreme”, I can still see (hope) reason to place higher ceilings on them. It isn’t until they get to Advanced A that I can finally accept that the warts will win out and prospects become suspects. This is just an explanation on my thought process while trying to rank prospects with different abilities, skill sets, ceilings, experience. I’m sure that a couple of the players I excluded will draw some ire, but until performance or injury history changes, there are other players I am more excited to see, like the guys in my last paragraph to Mike.
Here are the results from the 2016 poll.
J.P. Crawford received 9 of 15 first place ballots, and was second on two others. He also received a third, a fourth a fifth and an eighth-place vote. Crawford is the first to rank No. 1 in three straight seasons since we’ve been doing the rankings. Mickey Moniak and Jake Thompson each received two first places, Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins, one apiece. Forty-six different players received votes.
- J.P. Crawford, SS, Lehigh Valley
- Jorge Alfaro, C, Reading
- Nick Williams, OF, Lehigh Valley
- Jake Thompson, P, Philadelphia
- Mickey Moniak, OF, Gulf Coast
- Dylan Cozens, OF, Reading
- Roman Quinn, OF, Reading
- Cornelius Randolph, OF, Lakewood
- Franklyn Kilome, P, Lakewood
- Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Reading
- Scott Kingery, 2B, Reading
- Andrew Knapp, C, Lehigh Valley
- Adonis Medina, P, Williamsport
- Nick Pivetta, P, Lehigh Valley
- Jhailyn Ortiz, OF, Gulf Coast
- Ricardo Pinto, P, Reading
- Elniery Garcia, P, Clearwater
- Ben Lively, P, Lehigh Valley
- Kevin Gowdy, P, Gulf Coast
- Carlos Tocci, OF, Clearwater
Others receiving multiple votes( in order of vote total): Mark Appel, P, Lehigh Valley; Sixto Sanchez, P, Gulf Coast; Jimmy Cordeo, P, Reading; Cole Stobbe, SS, Gulf Coast; Jose Pujols, OF, Lakewood; Alberto Tirado, P, Lakewood; Alec Asher, P, Lehigh Valley; Thomas Eshelman, P, Reading; Drew Anderson, P, Clearwater; Andrew Pullin, OF, Reading; Cole Irvin, P, Williamsport; Arquimedes Gamboa, Williamsport; JoJo Romero, P, Williamsport; Malquin Canelo, SS, Clearwater; Tyler Viza, P, Reading.
Here are the results from the 2015 poll.
J.P Crawford received 15 of 16 first place votes. Jake Thompson received the other first place vote. Nick Williams received 11 second place votes. Thirty-four players received votes. The results of the poll were as follows.
- J.P. Crawford SS Reading 317 points
- Jake Thompson P Reading 287
- Nick Williams OF Reading 278
- Cornelius Randolph OF Gulf Coast 253
- Jorge Alfaro C Reading 236
- Roman Quinn OF Reading 225
- Franklyn Kilome P Williamsport 215
- Zach Eflin P Reading 197
- Ricardo Pinto P Clearwater 154
- Carlos Tocci OF Clearwater 145
- Aaron Altherr OF Philadelphia 144
- Andrew Knapp C Reading 138
- Jarad Eickoff P Philadelphia 113
- Scott Kingery 2B Lakewood 104
- Nick Pivetta P Reading 93
- Ben Lively P Reading 63
- Darnell Sweeney OF Philadelphia 59
- Rhys Hoskins 1B Clearwater 36
- Alberto Tirado P Clearwater 34
- Malquin Canelo SS Lakewood 29
Others receiving multiple votes( in order of vote total): Matt Imhof, P, Clearwater; Alec Asher, P, Lehigh Valley; Brandon Leibrandt, P,Clearwater; Dylan Cozens, OF, Clearwater; Jimmy Cordero, P, Reading; Kelly Dugan, OF, Lehigh Valley; Jose Pujols, OF Williamsport; Deivi Grullon, C, Lakewood; Willians Astudillo, C, Clearwater; Jesse Biddle, P, Lehigh Valley.