224 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of October 17, 2021”

1. Thank you for the schedule. Planning our annual Clearwater trip for next year already. Missed 2021.

   I hate sketchy internet when you travel especially at campgrounds. Anyone have good suggestions on how to work on-line when on the road.? Thanks.

2. Watching the Braves, it feels a like there is a considerable gap between the two clubs. To put the gap in perspective, imagine the Phillies this year if Harper only played 82 games like Acuna. Their first baseman is the MVP. Rhys is good but no where close to Freddy. But to me the worst example is Bohm vs Riley. Riley is who we dream Bohm to be. We do have an advantage at catcher. But otherwise, they are better across the board. I give Harper and a health Acuna a wash.

   And they also lost Soroka, who had a 4 WAR all-star season at 21. He should be back next year. And they also lost Ozuna who had a higher OPS last year than Harper had this year. Not sure if he is done forever. But imagine us losing a stud like that.

   DD has his work cut out for him.

   1. What about the pitcher the Braves had taken with their first round pic the year we picked Mickey number one overall. That is worse. Also shows the difference in talent evaluation. Also Phils never find anyone like Acuna they can’t judge or develop talent.

3. V1, I’ve been preaching this all year, even last. The Braves are good. Why I think the Phillies can hangs with the braves is the pitching difference, though the braves are catching up, especially if Nola is regressing. The braves have built their team correctly. If they spend money like the Phillies … man would we be in trouble. That’s said, I think the Phillies can catch up , but they should still be behind the braves no matter what they do this off-season. They are good. They are the 2007-2008 Phillies and we are the 2007-2008 Mets. DD has to make smart moves, and we need the prospects we keep to be above average mlb players to pass the braves. They are formidable and have room to add payroll . Imo, the WC is the realistic route to the playoffs for next year. Abblies, Swanson, Acuna, skora, Riley … freeeman. That’s a great lineup.

   1. I think that our starting pitching is better than the Braves. Our SP was 4th overall in WAR even with a down year by Nola. Braves were 12th overall. Their bullpen is materially better. the hitting was actually close.

      the biggest gap between the two teams is defense. They were a +49 in DRS and we were a – 52. Our defense was 101 runs worse. To put that in perspective, if we just swapped defensive runs saved, the Braves would have been a +33 (instead of a +134) and the Phillies would have been a +90 (instead of a -11). That alone wins us the NL East.

4. I just posted this in the old Open Thread. So I’m re-posting it here (sorry about that).

   I believe this will a transformative offseason for the Phillies now that DD has had almost a full year to assess the organization. He’ll almost certainly do some FA shopping, but I also feel he’s really going to shake things up via trade(s). I could be wrong, but I get the feeling that the Phillies POBO is set to deal (at least) one of Hoskins/Bohm/Nola/Suarez/Gibson … not because they are bad players, but because they are good players who hold value (other teams would want) under team control for multiple seasons (with the exception of Gibson). The Phillies’ team chemistry doesn’t seem to work. Maybe one/any of these guys can bring back help in multiple areas.

   That said … Would You Do? any of these:

   .

   A)
   Brewers get: (2 years of) Rhys Hoskins, (4 years of) Adam Haseley, and (6 years of) Bailey Falter
   Phillies get: (2 years of) Josh Hader, (1 year of) Jackie Bradley Jr, and (2 years of) Daniel Vogelbach

   .

   B)
   Cardinals get: (2 years of) Aaron Nola and (1 year of) Didi Gregorius
   Phillies get: (2 years of) Jack Flaherty, (2 years of) Jordan Hicks, and Nolan Gorman

   .

   C)
   A’s get: (5 years of) Alec Bohm, (6 years of) Nick Maton, and (4 years of) Sam Coonrod
   Phillies get: (2 years of) Matt Chapman

   .

   D)
   A’s get: (4 years of) Ranger Suarez, (6 years of) Matt Vierling, Simon Muzziotti, and James MacArthur
   Phillies get: (3 years of) Ramon Laureano, (1 year of) Stephen Piscotty, and Grant Holman

   .

   E)
   Pirates get: Mick Abel, Johan Rojas, Bryson Stott, Andrew Schultz, and Jean Cabrera
   Phillies get: Bryan Reynolds and David Bednar

   .

   As always, I am neither advocating nor opposing any of these deals. Just proposing some (what I think are) realistic swaps to gauge how far you are willing to go this offseason.

   1. B looks best to me.

      A JBR can’t hit and Hader’s star is fading
      C Way too much for a defense only 3B the Cards gave up less for Arenadado
      D Laureano stinks or he is way over rated don’t understand the fascination with that guy.

      E Um yeah no…Reynolds isn’t worth that much. He’s a good player on a really bad team and those guys tend to struggle under the spotlight.

      You wanna tweak that deal and drop Abel and Stott and replace them with Morales and Muzziotti plus their pick of anyone not named Abel Painter or Stott then ok.

      Bednar is really good I’d have to think about that.

      1. I agree on the (E) trade for Reynolds and lefty reliever Chasen Shreve….replace Stott, who I don’t think is a must since he’s almost major league ready. Abel, Rojas, Marchan and 2 midlevel prospects should do it.

      2. DMAR….agree ‘B” looks the best to me also.
         Though I think the Phillies will need another pitching prospect to the mix….Cardinals probably would also want youthful pitching potential…..who doesn’t!
         Of course they will ask for an Abel or Painter…..Dave D would then steer them to either Morales or Miller.

   2. The Phillies would do A,B or C in a second but the other team would laugh at those offers. They way over value the Phillies players.

      I would not do D. If you think that Ranger is for real, then you can’t do that deal.

      E is the most realistic deal. That is a motherload to give up. Exactly the type of deal that I warned everyone here that DD may do this offseason. It guts the farm. But it is the type of deal that you do if you want to go all in on the next few years…I wouldn’t like it but I would do it. I would much rather trade Bohm than Stott in that package. But if forced, I would do that.

   3. Ugh didn’t post – sorry it repeats
      A) Yes, with an asterisk. If Freeman hit FA, and Phil’s throw the money at him to weaken the braves and strengthen bullpen.
      B) No, last year was time to trade Nola, his value is down, I keep him. If season falls apart, and his value is up, trade at deadline
      C -Yes. I take Chapman for Bohm. I don’t think Bohm can play field
      D- Yes, I’m not sure what Ranger is, but I sell high and bank that he doesn’t hit those numbers once the league knows him
      E – No, too much. I keep Abel, Painter, and Stott but am willing to trade Hoskins, Ranger, bohm, morales, Rojas, marchan, Hasley and others

   4. As for C) …I think Billy Beane would ask for a younger, higher ceiling arm. Maybe Miller instead of Maton, along with Bohm and Coonrod.

      1. Bohm has very little trade value. He is not a third baseman and his hitting is very much a question mark. No one is giving up anything of value for him.

   5. Totally don’t agree. Zero chance they trade Abel. They know their rotation is their strength and they need work from it, not reduce it.

5. Sorry, Hinkie, I don’t do any of them. At least not this off season. I count on a Nola bounce back, and I am a Hoskins guy. Too much, for me at least, for Reynolds. Abel, Rojas and Stott, along with Painter, are the guys I want to keep. I know I am limiting DD’s ability to trade, but that’s how I feel.

6. Maybe to understand what DD might do you go back and look at what he has done in the past. Sale for instance he gave up Moncada and Kopech the other two players were throw ins.

   For Price he gave up Smyly and Willy Adames

   For Cabrera and Willis he gave up Maybin and Miller and a couple lottery tickets.

   The MO appears to me that he is a big game hunter and that he assesses well what he is giving up despite what hype might be out there with regard to his own prospects.

   1. And the teams that he traded with…..either small market without deep pockets or rebuilding, like the ChiSox.

7. Why not?
   Nola, Haseley and Falter to the Dodgers for:
   Bellinger, Dustin May and Bobby Miller.

   1. Romus … if the Phillies could make that deal, it would probably allow DD to then use Mick Abel in another deal. May (even though he’s recovering from TJ) and Miller are phenomenal young arms.

      1. Hinkie…….it is risky from all angles…the Phillies would have more to lose if Bellinger never recovers to his MVP year…May has a Thor setback….and Miller ends up being another TINSTAAPP.
         OTOH, does Nola rebound, will Haseley come around and Falter does seem to be a viable back-end guy, number 5, for now.

         Dave D will probably let go of a top prospect at some point…..and if it is Abel, oh well, what can yuo do, that is how he rolls.

   2. Romus – bellinger was way down, and you’d have to trust the Phils could fix him, when the dodgers couldn’t? That’s tough to believe. May went down hurt, out till middle of next season, sounds serious, he might never get back. Bobby Miller is a good looking prospect but he’s a prospect for Nola … he’s rountinely been near the top of the league when on. He’s not the best NL pitcher but he’s up there when he’s on.
      Hard for me to asses if Nola/Bellinger cancel each other our, when they are both on. I can see them both getting back to near career highs. I’d do hasley/falter for May/Miller. Miller has good upside. Hasley is very expendable to me. Causes no pain to trade him now

      1. Tac3…Friedman would want Nola, he is the key piece, gets them to the play-offs again if he becomes his old self..
         Max will probably be too expensive for them…Kershaw will be there but he has aged and has durability issues now.
         Buehler and Urias are their legit starters right now going into 2022.

         All the other pieces in that trade would be incidental’s to the dodgers.
         Bellinger is a risk because of his recent years….same wit Nola for them.

8. matt … you don’t need to apologize. As I mentioned, I am not advocating any of these deals.

   I do agree with DMAR. A deal where you can package Nola with Didi for multiple pieces (in this case a SP/closer/stud 3B prospect) could make the most sense. Nola (despite a down season) holds a lot of value (strong peripherals under team control for extremely reasonable money). Dealing Nola and Didi would shed 25M in payroll. That might roughly cover a new FA SS (Trevor Story?). So … in theory, you’d be replacing Nola and Didi with Flaherty, Hicks, Story, and Gorman. Only fair to note that Flaherty and Hicks have missed time with an oblique and TJ respectively. But both guys are throwing again.

   I do disagree with DMAR about Ramon Laureano. For me, he’s a stud CFer under team control for 3 years at reasonable money. Yeah, there’s some risk because of the PED situation, but I’d love to have him here. I was impressed with Ranger Suarez, but I question his second season through the league w/o a third pitch (he barely uses a breaking ball). Not saying he’s going to flop. Just saying I’m having a hard time seeing anything like 2021 in 2022.

9. Hinkie, me counting on a Nola bounce back is a fan’s hopeful thinking. The team needs to trust it’s PC, who needs to make a determination of the cause or causes of the disappointing season Nola had. If he thinks it’s fixable, that’s one thing. If he’s not sure, but another team thinks they can fix him, then there might be an ability to get value for him. I would love to be on the right side of that decision for a change. I also think the team values Hoskins’ bat more than some of the posters here do. DMAR, on the previous DD deals, I don’t remember, what was left of the team’s farm system after he made those deals? Also, he got Sale and Price and Dontrelle Willis and Cabrera at the peak, or close to it, of their careers. Of the names offered, Hader is the closest, but even he is far away from those players.

10. Matt Breen has a good piece on Nola up today. Nola was #10 in FIP this year. Interesting.

    1. Yes. Nola’s peripherals were good. He holds value, and could help change the make up of the club if DD decides to deal him. Teams would line up to make offers if he becomes available.
       v1 … completely disagree that the Cardinals would laugh at the deal I proposed above. Infact, I felt I may have under valued that deal in favor of St Louis.

       1. I agree about Nola as potential trade bait. Not likely. I don’t think Dombrowski shops him, per se. But should the opportunity present itself, I don’t doubt for a second that DD pulls the trigger if he lands us an impact position player AND a top 5 prospect. Nola’s apparent struggles don’t belie his pedigree as a TOR, though he’s clearly not an ace on a legitimate contender.

       2. Hinkie, let’s break down that deal:

          Center pieces: Nola vs. Flaherty
          – Flaherty is 2 years younger
          – Flaherty has a career ERA of 3.34 vs. Nola’s 3.68
          – Flaherty cost $3.9m last year vs. $11.3 for Nola
          – Despite that I do agree that Nola is better and due for a big rebound in 2022, but Flaherty is pretty great too. I would give a slight advantage to Nola, but not huge.

          Didi Gregorius – is a negative value contract. So whatever advantage that Nola has over Flaherty gets washed out by taking back Didi. St. Louis values defense, so really they could only use Didi as a DH (with a .639 OPS) and a utility player.

          If your offer was Didi + Nola for Flaherty, then I would think St. Louis would consider that. But you add in Jordan Hicks and Nolan Gorman. Hicks does have an injury risk, but he is an electric bull pen arm and he costs $860k per year. They are not just giving him away.

          Nolan Gorman played last year at AA and AAA. MLB lists him as the 24th overall prospect in baseball. 73 spots higher than they rank Bryson Stott.

          That is just not a real offer. No chance St. Louis would even consider that deal. That is a deal that the real Sam Hinkie would offer in his heyday. Which is why I LOVED the real Sam Hinkie. But that won’t work in MLB.

          1. Agreed Cards wouldn’t do it

          2. v1 … I always love talking baseball with you. You’ve got great insights. However, in this case, I think you are suffering from reverse homerism. Meaning, you are undervaluing Phillies players/overvaluing opposing players. I believe it’s a noble thing to go out of your way to not see things through red pinstripe glasses, but in this case IMO you are tilting too far the other way.
             I’ve checked in with Baseball Trade Values.com to run my proposal through their trade simulator. I’m not saying they’re infallible, but they seem to use a pretty reliable algorithm. Here’s what the site came up with:

             Nola surplus trade value ….. 71.2M
             Didi surplus trade value …… -9M

             Flaherty surplus trade value ……. 14.3M
             Hicks surplus trade value ……….. 0.6M
             Gorman surplus trade value ……. 37.7M

             Phillies giving up 62.2M in value
             Phillies recieving 52.2M in value

             You may be underestimating the injury history of all the pitchers involved in this deal.
             For general details on how they calculate value, you can read this ⤵
             https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers/

             1. I have never heard of this site. Have you run other MLB deals that have happened in the past through it? Do they typically show fair deals?

                I love Nola. I am not a reverse homer. I don’t want to trade Nola. But I also think that Jack Flaherty is a really good player. He had a 4.7 WAR season as a 23 year old. I don’t think that Nola is 5x more valuable than Flaherty.

                1. Well … here’s the values they had for the Phillies/Rangers deadline deal on the day that trade was made (7/30):

                   Spencer Howard surplus value … 20.9M
                   Kevin Gowdy surplus value …… 0.3M
                   Josh Gessner surplus value ….. 0.1M

                   Kyle Gibson surplus value …… 7.7M
                   Ian Kennedy surplus value …… 1.6M
                   Hans Crouse surplus value …… 4.9M
                   cash ………………………………….. 4M

                   Phillies gave up …. 21.3M in value
                   Phillies received … 18.2M in value

                2. so really it all comes down to a POV of whether Nola is 5x more valuable than Flaherty. As I said above, I love Nola and do not want to trade him. That said, Flaherty is 2 years younger, much cheaper, and has a career ERA better than Nola’s. His K rate is also higher than Nola’s. Nola has a slightly better FIP and x-FIP. But imo they are pretty darn close. Nola is better, but Flaherty is no slouch. And also that is an opinion backed up by the fan base as the average fantasy draft position of Nola last year was 22nd overall and Flaherty was 32 overall. https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

                   I would have to see baseballtradevalue’s actual calculation on Flaherty to try to understand why they think that he is 5x more valuable than Nola. But either way, I highly doubt the Cardinals would entertain that deal. However, if they would do that deal, I would do it in a second.

    2. I’d consider trading him if his value didn’t drop, but … if they do trade Nola … maybe this can finally be the deal the Phillies make that actually gets back a MLB everyday player for a stud pitcher! If DD did manage too, it would be the 1st. Out of the players the Phillies have received for Schilling, Lee, And Hamels … heck even throw in Andy Ashby, Alfaro is the best player. That’s not saying much. This team has had some
       Crap returns for star pitchers. I get it’s different regimes/circumstances… but that is a pathetic record. Nola neeeds to bring back a haul, no
       Maybes. I’ll take a similar haul DD gave up for Sale

    3. Something tells me Nola preferred pitching to Knapp vs JTR.
       Too often he was ahead in the count with two-strikes on the batter, and the batter put the ball in play for a hit.
       There was this combination going on….Nola missing his spot….and/or poor pitch selection?

11. I don’t think the Phillies really need to swing for the fences for a marquee bat. The are well below average on too many positions- bringing those up to average would deepen the lineup and probably be more cost effective too, hopefully leading to more sustained success.

    Bullpen- sign Raul Iglesias (3/$50M), resign Neris, Bradley+
    Outfield- sign Mark Canha (2/$25) keep Roman Quinn, mix and match Canha, Quinn, Vierling, Hasely with Harper
    Infield- Bohm, Didi (replace with Stott in May) Segura and Hoskins, Luke Williams as backup and/or resign Galvis

    trade Marchan, Damon Jones and Gunnar Mayer to Rays for Mike Zunino to back up catch and share DH

    But if I am going big, it’s Iglesias and Correa

    1. May have to outbid the Yankees for Correa…if he is numero uno on their want list.
       My guess Seager, to off-set the the ample right-handed bats in their lineup

       “The New York Yankees are going to be shopping for a starting shortstop during the offseason. ………”The bottom line is shortstop is an area of need, and (if) it’s going to be, we have to address it,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Tuesday, according to the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes. “I think Gleyber (Torres) is best served at second base in reality,” Cashman said, per NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty.

       The Yankees will have plenty of options in free agency with a star-studded group of shortstops heading to the open market. Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Javy Baez are all expected to be looking for new contracts over the winter.

12. Stott so far, near the top for shortstops:
    https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league/statistics

    1. 9 walks in 24 PAs…I likey.

       1. Yeah….so far things look pretty good for him,
          just the one caution flag I grapple with …he is 24 years old….he is one, two or even three years older than most of the players there.

          1. But with 1900 PAs over college and minors….you definitely cannot complain about this slash……326/.420/.490…plus a K%-14% and a BB%- 13.7%

             1. Austin Riley is 24. The Braves brought him up at 22. His first season they brought him up for 80 games and he slashed 226/276/750 OPS; he K’d 108 times in 297 PA’s

                Year 2 a shortened season he slashed 239/301/716 OPS in 206 PAs with 49 Ks

                What a progression he has made to achieve his 2021 slash of 303/367/898 OPS. That’s believing in your player. Now and of course that could be the best he ever is but still its a tremendous reward for sticking it out. He also credits Chipper Jones for this seasons success and helping him to game plan his approach.

                Defense aside let’s hope Long can help Bohm get his head straight because everything before this past season suggests Bohm should be an excellent hitter that will grow into a 20-25+ HR guy.

                1. DMAR…Philly does not seem to have that ‘stay the course with a struggling youngster’ as evidenced by Haseley’s situation.
                   Hopefully Bohm’s situation turns better.
                   The Braves stuck it out with Riley…even his fielding was Bohm-like….and they also had him in LF for awhile.

                2. How was/is Riley defensively?

                3. You make a good point with the Riley / Bohm comp about the value of patience. And I believe that they would be more patient with the bat if his defense wasn’t so poor. So I don’t think that you can just say “defense aside.”

                   Bohm was a -13 in DRS. Riley was a +13 in DRS. That’s a massive difference. And that’s real the problem. Heck, they were starting a 29yo journeyman with a career .632 OPS over him at the end of the season. So it wasn’t his hitting that got him sent to the minors.

                4. … but in 2020 (just a season ago), Riley was a -10 DRS at 3B. DMAR’s point about patience is valid. There’s no guarantee Bohm will bloom into the next Riley, but I’d be shocked if he isn’t a lot closer to the 2020 Alec Bohm than the 2021 Bohm.
                   BTW … Mike Schmidt had a horrendous first season and a half before he developed into the HOF player he grew into. And I’m not insinuating Bohm is even in the same stratosphere with Schmidt. Just saying development is not linear. Each player moves at their own pace. As I’ve posted numerous times, IMO Bohm was in need of an offseason/reboot to clear his mind.

                5. Riley 6’3″, 240. Bohm 6’5″, 218. Which one seems like a more flexible athlete?

                   Also Cal Ripken 6′ 4″, 200.
                   Chipper Jones 6′ 4″, 210.
                   Miguel Cabrera 6’4″, 240[?].
                   Scott Rolen 6’4″, 247.

             2. Deny….Riley is average with 14 errors this season, but has improved from his first year.
                SDI has at a negative thru August for NL 3B.

                Ryan McMahon . 6.5
                Manny Machado . 4.2
                Nolan Arenado … 3.8
                Starlin Castro … 2.1
                Wilmer Flores … -0.3
                Austin Riley … -1.0…..******
                Kris Bryant … -1.0
                Justin Turner . -1.6
                Luis Urías … -1.7
                Jonathan Villar … -2.1
                Eduardo Escobar … -3.6
                Eugenio Suárez … -3.7
                Alec Bohm … -5.7

                1. Wasn’t Riley also demoted and the Braves took a one year flyer on Josh Donaldson, that paid off very well for them? Poor offensively and defensively. It is part of why I believe that our 3B next season is Alec Bohm. They need, and we can’t emphasize need enough, for a young player or players to be Major League contributors. That’s not like platooning a couple of guys in LF, but an every day player. I don’t know that Bohm will be successful, but I believe he will get every opportunity to fail. I think the trade and FA signings will be a CF and a SS, depending on who is available for each spot, and of course the price and prospect cost.

                2. Bohm may turn out to be quite a good major league player. Maybe even at 3b…stranger things, right? But what I seriously doubt is that with this Phillies team in win now mode, Dombrowski will not have two young, unproven players on the left side of the infield in 2022.

                3. Yeah I mean it was really just a big picture thought I had as I’ve been watching these playoffs unfold. Particular to how young players are performing under what must be immense pressure.

                   The league seems so oriented on mathematical outcomes and playing the percentages then it seems so distraught when all of that gets turned on its head.

                   Matt I don’t know if Riley was demoted I didn’t dig into that…

                   What I do know is that the Braves were so well built around him that they could afford to let him struggle through it. Even when they were trying to contend.

                   What you often hear around these parts is that the Phillies can’t afford to be patient because they are trying to win now.

                4. DMAR, you make a great and important point…the Phillies are not built at present to allow for a struggling Bohm to figure things out at the big league level. Now, if Dombrowski gets the green light to spend without restraint, then you could conceivably see an OF of Castellanos-Marte-Harper and maybe DD goes crazy and figures a way to get Bellinger to play 1b while Hoskins is DH. Then you might afford to have Bohm and Stott side by side to the left of 2b. But how legit is that possibility??

                5. matt13…Braves brought tRiley up in 2019 in May…he played the OF as Donaldson manned third for that one year. Riley played third at Gwinnet…their AAA affiliate …..in April and part of May 2019.
                   https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=riley-000aus&type=bgl&year=2019

       2. same, but wondering how much is due to the automated strike zone. pitchers there are walking a lot in general

          1. Stott has more walks than any other player in the AFL.

             1. My gut is that Stott has taken the next step in his development – if he can field second or short competently we are probably looking at a first division regular or close to that. That is a very big development. When you have a good hit tool, great plate discipline and decent extra base power and play a middle infield position you’re a very valuable commodity to a team looking to hold down payroll like the Phillies.

                1. If Luis Garcia is the real deal at shortstop…from all indications, defensively he is, just have to see how his bat plays next season at Reading,…..I would think Stott’s future lays at second base, possibly even third, if they feel Bohm is not the answer there..

                2. If and when they bring Stott up I hope they don’t stuff him in the 8 hole and I hope they run him out there every night and leave him alone.

                   Not saying there aren’t times when you bring a young player up thinking he is ready and then need to send them down for a few weeks.

                   I thought they really missed an opportunity to do that with Alec in and around May. That said they were rewarded with an excellent June by him. But still and clearly he was doing something he had never done in his career before which was striking out at an alarming rate.

                   That suggests to me someone got in his head and tried to change what made him successful to begin with.

                3. The important thing with Bryson Stott is that he plays and plays consistently. Where he is in the lineup shouldn’t matter. His performance will dictate where in the order he should hit. From all the reports it does sound like he will ultimately end up at second base. Luis Garcia is a really good prospect and the fact that he has developed plate discipline and power is enormous, but we have to see how he adjusts an upper levels. I’m cautiously optimistic

    2. If in fact Stott is in their estimation the opening day SS, Dombrowski would then shift his infield focus to 3b. If he doesn’t pursue Kris Bryant as a LF/3B fallback to Bohm, then he might trade for Matt Chapman. I can’t see how DD doesn’t make at least one impact/blockbuster swap. The free agent market is flush at SS, but if his comments about Stott were genuine, why bother sign one when the money can go to meet other needs? Based on values from Hinkie’s link above, I would offer Bohm, Falter and Maton for Chapman.

       1. mark8:29…I think Chapman needs a change of scenery…his last two years at the plate have tailed off from his 2018/2019 seasons.
          His glove however has not….defensively he along with Nolan Arenado, Manny and now Ryan McMahon may be the four best in the majors.
          His SDI was a positive 6 …leads all third basemen in the AL
          If the Phillie can get him at a reasonable price…why not…Mets were after him at one point this past summer.

       2. I don’t care what that site says, there is no way we are getting Chapman for Bohm. Chapman is one of the best defensive 3B in MLB. He has two 6+ WAR seasons already as of age 28. He is entering his prime years. Alec Bohm is the worst defensive 3B in MLB. He had a -0.2 WAR last year. Chapman is also cheap and has 2 more years before FA.

          I do think that it is possible that Oakland makes Chapman available. But there is no way that Bohm is the best offer that they get from him. Falter and Maton are throw in pieces. The headliner for Chapman is going to be a stud, not a reclamation project.

          1. Chapman is about to turn 29 and he’s coming off a season in which he slashed 216/314/716 OPS with 208 Ks

             I appreciate the exceptional defensive player that he is but I need to understand the severe offensive regression he’s had before I start offering any marquee prospects for him.

             1. Not sure what “about to turn 29” means to you, but to me, that means he is in his prime. as for his slash line, he had a .272 babip. his K% is too high. I agree, but he has huge power and takes a lot of walks. I am not saying that he is an elite offensive player. but Bohm is not either and he has no position currently. So suggesting that he is the headliner for Chapman seems crazy to me. surely they can get something better than a DH with a .647 OPS.

                1. Chapman has an average career RISP-BA (262)….so when ducks are on the pond he has found a way of getting them in, especially in ’18 and ’19…..however the last two years his RISP (BA) has been mediocre at best and adversely affected his career metrics in RISP..
                   I do not what happened and do not want to get into the weeds to see, but I would try to take a stab at him, at a reasonable price that Beane would accept.
                   He will be due a hefty payday soon nearing his last two years of arb…and then free agency in 2024.
                   Beane may want to avoid that…but he still will not come cheap in trade.

13. Change of topic, marginally in relationship to the Atlanta Braves, but was it Hinkie who predicted the 82 win Braves would beat the 106 win Dodgers before that series started? Not that it has happened yet. As I type the Dodgers are only down 3 runs, down in games 0-2, with an at-bat left.

    1. Catch brought up the possibility and Hinkie said he liked them to beat the Dodgers, yes.

       But it looks like you jinxed them for tonight, at least.

       1. You’re right. Quite a disintegration by Braves pitching. For-better-or-worse, though, I doubt my comments have reproducible results!

          1. That was a hellva jinx! I might need you to wish some ill will on some people for me. Don’t worry, they are not Phillies fans

14. Yesterday’s update from Arizona; Stott 1-3 with an RBI, Muzziotti 1-4, 2b with an RBI, Damon Jones with the save with a ground out to SS, walk, single with runner going to 3b and batter thrown out at second then a ground out to pitcher. Jones ready for Phillies bullpen, he pitches through the quagmire.

    1. Stott, Muzziotti and O’Hoppe will make their LHV stop next season…..maybe it will be a brief lay-over for them.

    2. Oh, come on. Jones had a 5.44 ERA and 8 walks per 9 innings in AAA this year. Maybe he could be a bullpen piece in a few years if he works on his control, but he’d get eaten alive in the big leagues right now.

       1. Writing fisciatsly, never a “pure” inning, might fit in to what we are use to, lol.

15. Saw your post above Romus “If Garcia is the real deal at SS” he quietly had a strong offensive season with 18 2Bs 5 Triples 13 Dingers and a 354 OBP over two levels CLW and JS

    Considering he was awful in 2019 with the bat and didn’t play at all in 20 I’d say that is a heckuva season. He’ll be 22 at REA next year hopefully he continues improving.

16. Jimmy I am sure you reported on this young man but I totally missed it. It has to be our biggest $$pend since Ortiz unless I am mistaken

    https://www.mlb.com/prospects/phillies/rickardo-perez-694189

    And shame on me if you guys have been talking about him and I haven’t been paying attention.

17. Australian Baseball League’s 2021-22 season cancelled.

    The Melbourne Aces are disappointed to share that a difficult decision has been made and the 2021/22 ABL Season will not go ahead.

    STORY ➡️ https://t.co/EagffOzg3g pic.twitter.com/u9t6RsRuES

    — Melbourne Aces (@MelbourneAces) October 20, 2021

    1. Dang…was hoping Phillies would be able to send a few prospects.

18. According to MLBTR, Buster Olney surveyed 11 rival evaluators on the top 5 free agent SS’s this winter….
    1 Seager (50 of possible 55 1st place votes)
    2 Correa (4)
    3 Semien (1)
    4 Story
    5 Baez

    1. That’s pretty shocking. For me, Carlos Correa>Corey Seager.
       Dave Dombrowski and the rest of the FO types are meeting in Clearwater this week game planning for their offseason. I would think Correa is going to be way out of their price range. Seager is also probably not going to be a Phillie (although w/Scott Boras as his agent, you can never say never). That leaves Semien, Story, and Baez as possibilities here (unless you take Dombrowski at his word when he says Stott is a SS … and … I’m having a hard time buying that).

       If I’m predicting the likelihood on an outcome, it would go something like this:

       Story a Phillie … 30% chance
       Semien a Phillie … 28% chance
       Baez a Phillie ….. 12% chance
       Seager a Phillie … 5% chance
       Correa a Phillie …. 0% chance
       None of the 5 sign here … 25% chance

       1. I am a hard pass on Baez. No interest in him.

       2. I’m not seeing it like that at all.

          I think there’s a 60-75% chance that none of them sign here.

          I’ve listened carefully to what DD has said. He’s said the team needs a number of complimentary players and it was thinking about spreading out the money and I agree. Unless the team gets a great deal for one of these guys (especially a pillow contract) or is able to both sign a guy like Semien and trade Segura (I could see that happening), I don’t see them putting that many of their eggs in one basket. But who knows?

          1. I like that idea, trading Segura (paying down salary, of course) and picking up a couple prospects and/or a bullpen piece while making room for Stott’s imminent arrival. Then Semien gives us flexibility since he plays ss/2b/3b, however DD wants to slice it.

19. some interesting peripheral hitting stats on Bohm

    1. his BABIP last year was .327. League wide BABIP is around .300. So his balls in play found holes in the defense at a higher rate than league average. I.e. he didn’t get unlucky last year.

    2. his hard hit rate increased from 27.8% to 38.1% and his soft hit rate dropped from 15.9% to 12.1%. and his line drive rate increased from 21.4% to 24.5%.

    3. His average EV increased from 90.2 to 92.0.

    His issue is that his average launch angle is 5.3 and he his GB/FB ratio got worse from 2.09 to 2.32.

    As a comp, the 2021 MVP Bryce Harper:
    – average EV of 92.5 (so really close to Bohm)
    – Hard hit rate of 49.2% (materially higher than Bohm’s)
    – Soft hit rate of 12.8% (actually worse than Bohm’s)
    – but here is the biggest difference, Harper has an ave. launch angle of 14.3 and a GB/FB ratio of 1.09.

    Bohm needs to find a way to hit the ball in the air more. Easier said than done. But there is some positive in his peripherals.

20. To Hinkie’s speculation about Cody Bellinger’s contract status a few days ago….should DD call Friedman and offer a couple of high ceiling project/change of scenery candidates in Medina and Casey Martin? Then he would go to arbitration with us unless DD can swing an extension. Risky? Some, but Bellinger is showing himself to be clutch despite his recent downturn in production.

21. I saw this from a poster on another blog…thought it was funny:

    Sendero Caribe • ………My Opening Day 2022 starting lineup:

    Kingery (2B)
    Moniak (CF)
    Didi (SS)
    Bohm (3B)
    Haseley (RF)
    Randolph (LF)
    Verling (1B)
    Marchan (C)
    Velasquez (SP)–if we can get him back

    Harper, Wheeler. Suarez, Nola, Gibson, and Realmuto–gone–trade them for prospects.
    Hoskins, Segura, Neris–gone–trade/free agent
    Odubel–gone (option not picked up)
    McCutchen–gone (option not picked up)
    Quinn–IR
    ..A 40 win team with a 40 win payroll.
    Mostly home GROWN and 100 percent home GROAN..

    1. I’ll go with this as a feasible lineup….
       Cody Bellinger 1b
       Starling Marte cf
       Bryce Harper rf
       Nick Castellanos lf
       Matt Chapman 3b
       Rhys Hoskins dh
       JT Realmuto c
       Bryson Stott ss
       Jean Segura 2b

       1. Lol the odds of that being the line up is like Brian Laundry being innocent. They won’t get one of those players

       2. Cody Bellinger 1b….$16M
          Starling Marte cf…….$20M
          Bryce Harper rf………$27M
          Nick Castellanos lf….$20M
          Matt Chapman 3b……$10M
          Rhys Hoskins dh……..$7M
          JT Realmuto c…………$24M
          Bryson Stott ss………Minimum
          Jean Segura 2b………$14M
          Total….minus Stott…$138M
          Now lets pay the other 31 players.

    2. That is funny, Romus, and also a 38 Win team. What was the most losses ever? that tops it!

22. Ramos your payroll is proof this won’t happen

    1. And, that’s not counting the $55M for Wheeler, Nola, Gibson and Eflin.

23. Spitballing here…don’t I always…but while Dombrowski is being balls-to-the-walls aggressive this winter, and perhaps trade a top prospect or 2, why couldn’t (or wouldn’t) he trade Zack Wheeler and Matt Vierling to the Dodgers for their #2 RHP Ryan Pepiot, their #3 2B Michael Busch, Blake Treinen and Max Muncy.

    1. Do you think they can really get all that for Wheeler plus???? Yes and we can trade Roman Quinn and Hasley for Trout

       1. Feel free to contribute an idea of your own. Anybody can shoot down everything. You’re not a close relative of someone we haven’t heard from in a while, are you? (Name’s similar…)

          1. What are you talking about???? I am not a relative of anyone and I did suggest several realistic options like Trying to get Andrew Benintendi Or getting the two pitchers Lyles or Grey who are more in line of what Phils can spend. Sure would love DD to make great moves but you have to be realistic about it.

             1. That might be the problem (alien?), surely you jest, must be a relative somewhere in your genealogy.🔦 I am not a relative of anyone………?

    2. Well for one, if your goal is to compete you don’t trade away an Ace. They’re too difficult to acquire.

       If he wanted to trade Wheeler it would be extremely easy. Every team with playoff aspirations will be calling. But the only reason to do that is to rebuild. You don’t retool by trading away your best player(s) unless you can replace them. We cannot.

    3. I am willing to lay a large chunk down, that you are the the most active transaction player in your Fantasy Sport Leagues.

       1. Mark What are you talking about???? I am not a relative of anyone and I did suggest several realistic options like Trying to get Andrew Benintendi Or getting the two pitchers Lyles or Grey who are more in line of what Phils can spend. Sure would love DD to make great moves but you have to be realistic about it.

          1. Yeah I heard you the first time.

    4. That’s not going to happen regardless of whether we think it’s a wise move or not.

       It won’t happen because it impairs their ability to compete next year. Middleton is looking to win as soon as possible. Trading their ace for prospects – that’s not the type of deal I could ever see Middleton endorsing.

24. Trade speculation is fun. I would not trade Wheeler. I would trade Hoskins to .Milw. for Williams, Ashby and a prospect,throw in Jbj. Inclined to trade Nola for best competing offer.

    1. Sign Taylor,sign Knebel ,sign Rizzo

    2. LOL I do like reading all of your trade proposals. I’ll admit some of them are cringe worthy to me but as my dad used to say there is an a$$ for every seat in this world.

       So propose away….

       I do try to refrain from attacking a proposal but I’m of the opinion that if you make one its fair game 😉

25. I also think if you want a center fielder you should look at the Twins and go for Braxton. He is young and good. I know he is injury prone but maybe would be worth it. I would also consider taking Donaldson in the trade to help possibly lower the price. Would start with Bohm in the trade. Would not give up Able painter or the SHort stop. Not sure how many years Donaldson had left and I know he is pricy. I would also try to get rid of Gigorious if you can. Would try to fix Kingery if you can stick him at second base keep him there put his swing back. If you can get something good for Sigira I would shop him and see what we can get maybe a number three pitcher. Plug in a second basemen until Scott or kingery is ready. Need to focus on pitching and need a cf and another big bat. Work to fix the penn too. Castillo or Swerberg would work as the big bat. Sorry about the spelling I can’t spell the names lol. But I think team needs a lot of work. I am looking forward to seeing how creative DD will be.

26. Castillo or Swerberg………..translation Castellanos and Schwarber????

    1. Heyman is reporting Castellanos is opting out, Kershaw and Scherzer most likely to resign and if not the Rangers are favorites for CK and Angels for Max

       1. Angels and Moreno will really have one bloated payroll…..Ohtani will soon get Trout money.
          Maybe they will finish second in the division soon!.

       2. Seeing lots of new signatures and that is a nice thing. The board always needs some flare and new voices chiming in.

27. Lol yes thanks Romus

28. The Tigers, Rangers and Mariners are all expected to be involved in the conversation around MLB's billion-dollar class of free-agent elite shortstops. https://t.co/PUq3kHXQJl

    — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 20, 2021

    .

    mark mentioned this (via MLBTR) earlier in this thread. I just got around to reading it. Buster Olney mentions the Phillies connection to Scott Boras (who reps Corey Seager) in the article.

    “The Phillies are viewed as an interesting wild card, given the team’s obvious need for a shortstop — and a growing connection with agent Scott Boras. For years, a lot of Boras’ clients landed with the Nationals, like Max Scherzer. But Boras client Bryce Harper signed with Philadelphia, and so did Jake Arrieta. Now Harper’s former hitting coach Kevin Long — also represented by Boras — has moved from Washington to Philadelphia, in spite of the fact that Long has not always seen eye-to-eye with Phillies manager Joe Girardi. Another Boras client is Seager.”

    The funny thing is Olney doesn’t list the Phillies among the possible landing spots for any of the five FA SSs.

    1. Has Buster ever been correct on his predictions?

29. Why is it a funny thing that Olney doesn’t list Phils as possible landing spot for any of the 5 FA SS? Only in the Philadelphia area that’s a possibility. Nationally Know as not a competitive team. I feel Seagar is or Simmons are the ones they have a shot at. Like I said before DD has to be creative team needs a lot of work to be a better team. Been a 500 team or less for years. Need to build the team to make a real run at the playoffs. Not being a tease. Right now Braves are much more talented lots of work ahead.

    1. Because he mentions numerous clubs for each SS, and after mentioning the Phillies have an “obvious need for a SS”, you’d think the club would at least make a list of possibilities.
       And … you’re talking out of both sides of your mouth when you say only Phillies fans think it’s a possibility, but then mention they have a shot at Seager.
       Also … (as always) it’s going to come down to money. Seager is going to make more money than anyone other than Correa. So if you think Seager is a possibility, why wouldn’t Story and Semien (both will earn fewer dollars) also be possibilities?

       1. With Olney Heyman and that bunch save a few its all about the clicks. They know about as much as you and I Hinkie…

          and they are happy to be manipulated by agents and GMs alike…

          Paid to speculate and prognosticate

       2. I think Seager will be wearing Yankee pinstripes next year.
          They need his glove and LHB in that lineup.
          I think Story leans Philly, if indeed Dave D is sold on adding a shortstop.
          Now will there be any team offering Correa $300M+ over 8 years?
          Maybe the Cubbies….they will have plenty of dollars to spend.

30. I get that you think the team stinks, Rocky, and you are certainly entitled to your opinion. But your point that the National experts know the Phils are a destination for no one good is wrong. First, money talks. But, more importantly, Olney’s piece is “the Tigers, Rangers, and Mariners” will all be in on the Billion Dollar SS class. Well, the Tigers and Rangers stink, and the only team with a longer streak of not making the Playoffs is Seattle. Whether or not we sign one isn’t the point. But no one is not coming here because we are viewed as non-competitive. We don’t have success on the field, but we are very competitive in the spending money game, and with FAs, that matters most.

    1. Hey we almost came in above the Braves and it looks like they are headed to the WS and might win. Could have been us, lol.

    2. matt13….hold those thoughts on the Tigers and Seattle stinking…their 2nd half of the season this past year may have inspired their yutes to better things next season,

       1. you are correct Romus, It was the Rangers I was referencing, and Seattle just hasn’t won. But, the point remains that we can be very competitive for any FA that we want to be in on. Who that player or players might be, I don’t know. But no one is telling his Agent, “don’t talk to the Phils, they aren’t good.”

          1. matt13…agree, it all comes to to the Jerry McGuire axiom.

31. Another really good night for Stott and O’Hoppe. I’m sold on Stott at this point. He won’t start the year in the majors, but he’ll be up by early May at the latest.

    O’Hoppe I’m told is a good defensive player and appears to have enormous upside on offense. He’s strong as heck and seems to make good contact. If he keeps playing well, they need to hold onto him and he could end up forcing the issue with Realmuto in a couple of years. Good organizations don’t trade a guy like O’Hoppe so let’s see what happens.

    1. Yeah…I can see Stott being called up around mid-May.
       Hopefully he comes out swinging at LHV in April.

32. I’m still a proponent of grow the arms buy the bats and by “buy the bats” that can be FA sign or a trade of prospects for a known MLB quantity.

    The problem with big FA pitchers is IMO by the time they get to the open market that arm is likely cooked. Sure there will be rare exceptions but more often than not a guy that only helps you every 5th day and for 5 innings at that is the wrong place to soak up the budget.

    Last night Smoltz was showing a graphic on 3 Astros pitchers Valdez being one of them and then Luis Garcia and Urquidy. All 3 signed for 410K

    Again Wheeler looking back happened to be a steal when you consider the other deals out there at the time. Keep doing those they are worthy but also rare.

33. DMAR…..”and yes I walked to school as a kid 4 miles each way uphill”,
    ….and I had to ride in a big yellow non-air-conditioned bus….so there. 🙂

    1. Just amazing that you turned out so well after enduring all those hardships.😎

       1. LOL.

34. I think they now call it progress, DMAR. It’s supposed to make things either easier or better. Somehow it got lost in translation along the way. The game of baseball, among other things, isn’t what it was. I only wish it had gotten better. I don’t think the idea should have been to make it easier. That doesn’t enhance the product on the field.

35. Catch, I’m sold on Stott too. He has pop, his BB numbers throughout the minors are really good, and he ought to be able to play an OK shortstop while in his 20s, even if he has to move off the position down the road.

    The more I think about it Semien might be the FA guy. Can play short until Stott is ready, and then slide to 2B for the remainder of his contract. And Segura can move to 3rd for the remainder of 2022 (once Stott comes up). If Bohm creates a logjam by being good at the plate, and capable of playing third, that will be a good problem to have — but I wouldn’t count on that.

36. Depending on what else we add, and if they are committed to Stott playing SS, don’t overlook Freddy as the guy to start at SS next season. The $ may then go to a Closer and CF. I don’t see Stott starting the season at CBP, so we will need a SS. For the record, however, I think he becomes our 2B before long. That’s my opinion. The team may have a totally different one, and if they think Stott is the SS, then we are not going to get one of the FA SSs.

    1. matt13…….say Stott comes out in spring training and tears up the Grapefruit League…..do you send him down to LHV to start the season?

       That is a real possibility…..and if they do send him down, ‘for a little more seasoning’, you will hear the media blow-back, the national blow-back about service time, ala Kris Bryant.

       In that case Dave D and Joe will need to decide the appropriate action.

       I am with you…let him start at LHV , no matter how well he does in spring training….. until May.

       1. He’s going to start in the minors due to the service time issue no matter what unless they reach a long term deal with him, but I don’t see that happening.

          If he really looks ready in ST, he’ll be up soon enough. Not worried about the precise timing.

          1. There’s talk of a possible universal “free agency at age 29” rule being adopted as part of the new CBA. I don’t know how realistic that is, but if adopted, it would eliminate the whole “keep him down in AAA until May to gain an extra year of team control” strategy.

             1. What is the ceiling/floor for @Phillies No. 2 prospect Bryson Stott?@JonathanMayo answers in the latest Inbox: https://t.co/EndACeGFkZ pic.twitter.com/4Ql3p4gHrf

                — MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) October 21, 2021

                1. For the life of me, cannot understand why Stott has not been ranked higher.
                   His overall minor league metrics/slash are very good……he was more highly ranked coming out in his draft year as the 9th best player with scouting grades of .
                   Hit: 60 …Pwr: 45… Run: 55… Arm: 55…. Fld: 55…. Overall: 55

                2. Hinkie, he doesn’t project what position Stott plays, and I think the belief that it isn’t SS long term has decreased his overall rating. But, I agree, he is one of those players who will be much better than what his rankings have ever intimated he would become.

37. Romus, I am only guessing what they do, And, a lot has to to with opportunity. They could have a plan going into the FA/trade season, and then things change immediately. WE know they want to add Defense and another hitter. Leaving Pitching aside. We know they need a Closer, and some SP depth. They also know they cannot fill every hole with a FA, at least not a high priced one on a LTC. So, what do they really believe about Bohm? Is he a 3B in their yes, really? If so, he has to play. I don’t see Bohm and Stott at 3B and SS to start the season. Even if Bohm is an adequate defensive SS. Where is the improved Defense coming from? Maybe they are blowing smoke and Bohm is part of a Matt Chapman deal? Then a Stott who proves he is ready to play could start next to a Defensive player like Chapman. I don’t think they can afford to wait until ST is well underway to make moves. So, my early guess is Bohm at 3B, hoping for an Austin Riley growth spurt, Freddy or a Simmons at SS depending on their notes on Stott’s defense in the AFL, or a Semien/Story if Stott is headed to a future as a 2B. Then fill in the rest of the jigsaw from there.

    1. A myriad of possibilities in the unknown when you have to juggle more than a few questionable quality defensive players,
       I like Chapman…but he will be costly to get.
       Mets may also trade for him.
       Nevertheless, one of the initial steps in their plans has to do with what they will do with Didi. Moving him will be chore for Dave D.

38. Logan O’Hoppe making news again in the limelight:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-prospect-logan-o-hoppe-stays-hot-at-the-plate?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

    1. Romus, right now I would have to place him 2nd among position players after Stott…

       1 Painter
       2 Abel
       3 Stott
       4 O’Hoppe
       5 Rojas
       6 L. Garcia
       7 Miller
       8 Ortiz
       9 Wilson
       10 Perez

       ….but not to jump the gun on the top 30😉

       1. Yeah he has to be up there for sure.
          Looking at MLB.com Top Ten catchers…by Mayo/Callis…..the North America kids are all first round draft choices ..the five Latin kids…three, maybe four, were million dollar signings.
          I do not think O’Hoppe can crack that list since he was a extreme late round pick.
          https://www.mlb.com/prospects/c/

          1. What difference does it make that he was a late round pick? Mike Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round. Last time I checked he has a plaque in Cooperstown.

       2. Painter over Abel?????? Wow..

39. Jim – have you heard anything regarding FO plans for the Phillies? Sometimes you’ve dropped little nuggets so figured I’d ask. Could still be early.

    Wonder who is getting rule 5 protection.
    I’ve been also thinking about it and i expect DD to make at least one big splash..

40. Even Phillies fans can grow up to be important. Go figure.

    1. There is hope, even a bad “Team” can win.
       Back to sports please!!!!

41. Where is the Phillies Eddie Rosario story?

    1. Different regime but Wilson Ramos and Corey Dickerson fit that mold IMO.

42. In watching the post-season games, I realize we are observing the best teams in baseball leading us to see the most productive ways to play the game. As such, I have a vision of the future.

    Baseball 2050:

    Rosters have 149 men. That is 140 pitchers and eight position starters and a one-man bench.

    As might be evident, pitchers throw only one pitch per game. There are exceptions, and some throw two pitches, though that is increasingly rare in the modern game. More common are pitchers who tire themselves out in the bullpen and don’t throw at all. They are listed as DNP in the boxscore.

    Attendance has fallen to an average of 15 persons per game, all octogenarians and nonagenerations. Oxygen tanks are provided courtesy of the home team.

    The average game takes 9 hours and 40 minutes to play.

    The Major League Players Association opposes any suggestion to speed up the game.

    1. LOL, Frank.

43. Chris Taylor making himself some serious money tonight.

    MAKE THAT 3 JACKS FOR CHRIS TAYLOR pic.twitter.com/6pnmhnKbsN

    — Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 22, 2021

44. Future Phillie closer Corey Knebel looks good tonight.

    Corey Knebel, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/e0JPb0eSjL

    — Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 22, 2021

45. Hawkeye, exactly! We need more than just to spend a lot if $, we need our Rosario. And Hinkie, Knebel, Taylor and Turner could all be playing home games at CBP!

46. Chris Taylor…latest version of past play-off heroes…Ben Zobrist, Steve Pearce, David Frease, Edgar Renteria, Jermaine Dye, Scott Brosius, Phillies minor league coach Pat Borders….et al.
    Like good soldiers they will not die, they just fade away.

47. Don’t forget Ross. that one really hurt.

    1. Right…how could I have forgot him…of all of them.
       The dagger to the Philly fanbase.

       1. Can’t be dazzled by a post-season performance. I think Carlos Baerger did that to the Mets and they overpaid for little in return.

          1. Denny…you are right…DMAR said the same a few days ago.
             Happens quite often in play-offs…and you will also see stars have bad series’

             PS…assume yuo mean Carlos Beltran?

             1. Baerga did play for the Mets (and fairly poorly), but I think he did mean Beltran.

                It’s pretty hard to ding the Mets for the Beltran signing and Beltran did NOT provide little in return. Beltran had a difficult first season for the Mets (2.9 WAR), but then was pretty freaking good and he had 8.2 and 7 WAR seasons for the Mets and was excellent enough on the last year of his contract to fetch Zack Wheeler from the Giants so it was actually a pretty good signing by the Mets. Beltran had 70 WAR for his career, so he’s at least a 50/50 shot to go into the HOF. There are a lot of HOFers who were worse than Beltran.

             2. Yes I did. Thanks for clarification.

48. Romus – Denny’s correct. It is Carlos Baerga. The Mets gave him $9.75M over the 97 and 98 seasons for what he had done in the playoff.

    1. Okay, but pretty weird. Baerga wasn’t signed coming off a postseason performance and he wasn’t that great in the playoffs. Also, the Mets didn’t sign him as a FA, they traded for him mid-contract, but it was a hideous trade in that they traded Jeff Kent who became another borderline HOFer.

       1. Thanks for that clarification.
          Man Jeff Kent was the guy they sent out, wow.
          Kent is the subject of a lot of HoF debates between Brian Kenny and Chris Russo..

          1. Let me guess. Chris Russo, who saw him in NY, when he wasn’t all that great and was really uptight basically argues “I know a HOFer when I see one, and Kent wasn’t a HOFer and isn’t even close.”

             Am I right? Russo is pretty predictable.

             1. Bingo,
                ….and Kenny reels off the outstanding metrics that Kent has accomplished.

                1. Yup, just as I would suspect. Kent was a very interesting player. He was sort of a difficult dude, but, after a period where he was a slightly above average player, he worked his ass off and ended up having a career that nobody could have ever predicted. He hit 377 homers primarily as a second baseman and he was no stiff in the field – he was absolutely league average there. And for like a 10 year span he averaged over a .900 OPS and was an MVP.

49. Beltran, Baerga….the point is let’s not go crazy over what amounts to be a SSS, albeit an important one. Chris Taylor isn’t what he’s been this series, BUT he’ll still be a good signing. Most of the better GMs, among which is Dave Dombrowski, who won’t overvalue such a player.

50. This keeps getting filter due to length (my guess) here goes for a whacky Friday thought: atl is good, 2022 is there’s imo. Solution, minor retool by freeing up money, acquiring top 100 talent, along 2 good drafts. Soo… here goes. Trade Nola …. And wheeler! Get a stout lineup, stock the farm that gets them to middle of mlb, the drafts get them to top 10. The gamble, is that Abel and painter are for real, and you can push them fast. Do high AAV 1 year deals for grienke, verlandsr, ray. Go over the cap, and be ready for 2023. It’s out there, but it’s also seeing the writing on the wall with atl, and finding an alternative way to close the gap. I’m like 80/20 against/for this. The fan base doesn’t have the patience’s, but it might be the correct move if the farm could produce high tier talent on entry contracts. Sorry I’ve had a few — home. Office day

51. It seems to me the Dodgers have an endless supply of gas throwing, lefties or righties, corner painting and late movement pitch-pitchers where the Phillies scrounge around for a couple..

    1. Naaaa, the Phillies can draft with the Dodgers :). Something tells me you could give the Phillies top 3 picks every years and the dodgers the last pick in each round…. And I’d bet dollars to donuts the dodgers would have Better players. At least that was before mattibgly. Hopefully he can reverse the trend

       1. I agree with you Tac you can even do that and tell the Phils who the Dodgers will pic so they have an poppy to pic that player and they will still mess it up.

52. It’s been a constant change in philosophy. Not talking today, hopefully we are starting to do better, but we wanted control guys, and didn’t value velocity. v1 will tell us how that worked out. Then we wanted velocity and didn’t value command. Same with hitters, power but couldn’t make contact, a lot of tools, but not one of the tools was very good. As I said, hopefully we are doing better. But I cannot trade Wheeler. I need too see a full DD off season and quite possibly a trade deadline. Maybe nothing works, but I need to see him try. Last off season was not a real effort, and I blame Middleton for that.

    1. What is the philosophy of the most effective teams; i.e. Dodgers, Red Sox, Astros, etc… ?

       1. Cheat :). Steal signs or other departments scouting reports …. In the braves case, throw some hush hush money under the table. I bet the Phillies real probably is their unwillingness to break rules… or bend them

          1. Face it Tac3 – the Phillies are always the good guys. They never break the rules, or even bend them. They are historically a paternalistic organization that is plain, dull, and boring – but always “there.” They are like the sweet ugly girl sitting in a chair next to the dance floor doing all the proper things waiting for a request to dance.

          2. Yes. All four of the remaining teams have been caught (or at least investigated, in the case of the LADs) cheating. The Phillies OTOH have earned dozens of merit badges (YAY!)

             1. Let’s stop with the “if you’re not cheating you’re not trying” garbage. That’s not why the Phillies have been bad. They’ve been bad because Middleton has hired a lot of incompetent people who, in turn, hired other incompetent people.

                1. How about the bullpen coach stealing signs late 2000’s. Then we got better. Just saying.

             2. There’s a difference between cheating and gaining a competitive edge. When have the Phillies ever been innovative in anything? Answer: the Phanatic. They’ve been pretty strong when it comes to public relations with one huge exception – winning over a sustained period. They have enjoyed cyclical success. And primarily when they finally break down and hire a credible baseball man to run things. Paul Owens was essentially a company guy who happened to have an idea. Since him, there’s been Pat Gillick and Dave Dombrowski. We’ll never know if Mike Arbuckle would have made an impact because he wasn’t given the opportunity.

                1. Lmao … the phanatic … even they screwed that up recently

             3. Yes sure they have they were the speed team at one time and had players on performance enhancing drugs the other time and that was the times they were winners

53. Maybe Dave D will get a yen and jump into the Japanese market
    Suzuki could be posted.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=suzuki001sei&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=

    Getting him to play in Philly, if posted, will be a step in the right direction towards catching the Braves

    1. Impressive, although it’s sometimes hard to convert the stats. How does the posting fee count in the luxury tax?

       1. That is the question….if posted…..he will be right in the middle of the new CBA negotiations, starting in December..
          So there is the uncertainty
          However, pre-2022 CBA….posting system is beneficial to large market spenders because the posts do not count toward the luxury tax.
          Right now if the Philies gave him a 5yr/$80M contract…the fee would be approx $14M.

          1. Might be the right time for the team to finally adopt the Hinkie plan for attracting Japanese superstars.

             It's Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto! I used to watch that show with a notebook in my lap. pic.twitter.com/db64FhzDxf

             — Eλf Sternberg (@elfsternberg) September 7, 2019

             1. Something has to eventually work…..I am so tired of the West Coast teams along with Yankees or Boston getting the best Japanese players.

                1. Just one more way the MacPhail era failed us. No creative thinking, no ability to spot talent, no ability to put together a system. Very ugly.

54. Hinkie, you have been endorsing Iron Chef Morimoto for what seems like decades now! The organization just doesn’t seem to listen. We just don’t play in that market. We could use some luck also. A Victorino or Jayson Werth. Maybe DD knows someone recovering from a misdiagnosed ailment and ready to come back? It can’t all be FAs, and I think there is ammo for 1 major trade.

    1. At one point when Uncle Charlie was managing the tam, I thought there was a chance to get one or two quality Japanese players…since he speaks Japanese and played there. I mean Tadahito Iguchi and So Taguchi were older then and basically role players who had already been around the league..

55. With Scherzer and Bueller pitching the next 2 games against Atlanta, no guarantee that Braves go to WS. Go anybody but Atlanta.

    1. I’ll go Braves vs Astros. My gut, but I think this is Atlanta’s year.

       1. Being a southern boy, South Philly to NC, Atlanta is the only thing I don’t like in the South!

          1. And you cannot dare like Instant Grits,
             …..no-self-respecting Southerner would eat instant grits.

             1. Instant Grits is not Southern, it is from a Northern company infiltrating the The South.

             2. Two references (yutes) to my cousin Vinny … Well done!

                1. Lol.

          2. Denny…get in the box and hit it.

             1. Nice! Put me in coach. Harp and I have been using the curveball machine so we are both ready. Brad Miller will not stay in the box. John Kruk won’t even come out of the clubhouse.

                1. Transplanted in SC, grits should not come out of a box.

56. Watching video of Jordan Viars…. his pounce on the ball thru the strike zone reminds me of Cody Bellinger….goes in and attacks the ball…also a similar physique.
    Phillies need to strike gold on one of these HS position players in the early to mid bonus pool rounds.
    The list of ‘strike outs’ over the last 10 years….Pullin, Green, Cozens, Sandberg, Hernandez, Pickett and Stobbe is disappointing to say the least..
    Braves are able to get a guy like Riley, and the Dodgers have also got their share ie Bellinger and Verdugo, to name two.
    Phillies need to have some luck there.

    1. Romus, the fact that Dombrowski did not remove Brian Barber from his post gives me hope that Viars was a steal at that point in the draft. To have a lefthanded power stick in the future middle of the lineup warms the cockles of my heart.

       1. Keeping fingers crossed.
          Viars was not ranked in the top 250 for the draft……one reason, he did not do or participate in showcases/traveling tournaments.
          He said he either did not want to go to some or some he was not invited.
          So he said he played against older players in Texas.

          1. If half of these prospects turn out to be major league, above replacement level players, we’ll be cooking with Crisco….
             C Logan O’Hoppe
             1b Jordan Viars
             2b Bryson Stott
             ss Luis Garcia
             3b Alec Bohm
             LF Ethan Wilson
             CF Johan Rojas/Yhoswar Garcia
             RF Jhailyn Ortiz
             RHSP Mick Abel/Andrew Painter
             LHSP Erik Miller

             1. Yep……right now for virtually all of them, it looks pretty promising.
                But things have a way of changing …and not always for the better.

57. I have hopes for all of them, mark. And, I think a couple of solid BP arms from the last 2 draft classes.

    1. Missing from your list Mark are Hassely, Moniak, and Randolph. It is my hope that the new development staff can undo the damage that was done by the previous group and at least one of these players can reach the potential that was originally seen in them.

       1. BTW … Corneilius Randolph is a MiLB FA this offseason. If he’s not added to the 40-man (and it’s unlikely that will happen), he could choose to walk.

          1. Randolph and Moniak are done already stick a fork in them. Phils would be extremely lucky if Moniak can end up as. 4th outfielder. Just shows the lights years of distance between Braves and Phils. That during the Moniak draft Braves get a sold stud pitcher and we get and very good high school outfielder. Also I loved when someone said if the Phils had a top three draft pic and the Dodgers had the last pic or a sandwich pic in the draft the Dodgers would pick the better player. I also feel you can tell the Phils who the Dodgers would pic and Phils would still mess it up. Hopefully it’s different with DD but look at the drafts damage is done and it’s why we will be behind the Braves for years and won’t make playoffs. Even DD says you need some home grown talent thrown into the mix with free agents to be a contender. That’s why the Phil teams with Howard Utley and group were so good for so long. They were home grown and then the Phils filled in holes with free against like Lee and Halladay. Those were great teams they need to build the right way. Can not keep putting a band aide on it. You have to be realistic

       2. Definition of insanity; drafting 3 similar outfielders and expecting different results.

          1. Well yes the first two were drafted back to back years but wasn’t Randolph a SS or infielder? And Moniak was a number one overall so yes that’s the Phils fault for taking him they had the prime pick. Even in a weak draft should get something out of it Reds and Braves did that year. Plus I am sure there are others. And Hassely was years after the other two. I am not sure but did all three have the same souring reports. Since Hasely played in college for Virginia a respected program that has many players drafted and once I was told high college level baseball is come where past the level of high A and close to the level of AA and the other two were just high school kids whose bodies may not have been developed and one was a infielder not even a outfielder. Plus wasn’t R supposed to be a power hitting corner outfielder and the other two are centerfielders? I am not certain but don’t think it’s crazy just poor scouting. Plus we really don’t know about Hassely yet. He looked good when he first came up. Yes had a bad year last year but we don’t know yet. My worst thoughts are that Phils development been so so bad over past ten to 15 years that they could not develop them. And lol at Kingery too would he a solid mlb player is he was developed by another organization. Like I continue to say I hope DD is fixing the pharm system. But now we are light years behind Braves and others. I say four years always from being a serious contender that can get through one playoff round. Need home grown talent.

             1. Rocky…Randolph draft report from 2015:

                Cornelius Randolph | Rank: 19
                School: Griffin HS (Ga.) Year: Senior
                Position: SS Age: 24 DOB: 6/2/1997
                Bats: L Throws: R Height: 6’1″ Weight: 190 lb.
                Signed: Clemson

                Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 40 | Overall: 55

                Griffin (Ga.) High has produced a pair of big league infielders in Jeff Treadway and Tim Beckham, and it may have a third on the way in Randolph. He’s Griffin’s best prospect since Beckham and profiles as more of an impact hitter than the No. 1 overall pick in the 2008 Draft has become. Randolph has the tools and approach to hit for power and average. He offers bat speed, strength and patience from the left side of the plate. He uses the entire field and has better pitch recognition than most high schoolers. Currently a shortstop, Randolph will move to a less challenging position at the next level. The Clemson recruit has good hands but lacks the quickness to play in the middle infield. His arm hasn’t been as strong this spring, when he has dealt with biceps tendinitis, but it and his bat would profile well at third base.

                1. Inside out swing! Just like Tony Gwynn!

                2. Junior.

58. Where is BA against batting leaders? I remember reading the Phils had one of the worst BA against fastballs as a team.

    Is it better for them to concentrate on getting batters with high BA vs fastballs or should they look for low K%/ high BB% to keep runners on base and balls in play?

59. BREAKING DRAFT NEWS (that could have an impact on the Phillies @ 1-17:
    Two way UConn stud Reggie Crawford (of Scuylkill County) will miss the 2022 season with TJ. The LHP/1Bman has been a top 10 prospect on almost everyone’s early list. Crawford is now the second top college LHP set to miss next season with TJ. Alabama’s Connor Prielipp and/or Crawford could now slide down to the middle of the first round, and become available for Dombrowski/Barber.

    SCOOP: Crushing news for @UConnBSB, as star LHP/1B and our No. 4 college prospect for the 2022 #MLBDraft, Reggie Crawford, recently suffered what is believed to be a season-ending arm injury. Tommy John is expected. Horrible news for Reggie and #UConn. Such a special talent.

    — Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogers) October 23, 2021

    Of course I tell you, if in the next Draft this guy comes free in the turn of Cherington will take it as his first pick.
    Reggie Crawford : the young man is a great pitcher and is also a power hitter, It could be a kind of Ohtani, The fast ball reaches 101 MPH.#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/iargkH2VM7

    — Anderson Vargas (@PiratesCoverage) October 21, 2021

    1. Do what the sixers do go for him and red shirt for a year let him heel and get stronger and rehab. Can’t be a worse pic then from the e McFail era

    2. Hinkie…did you happen to see this from Jon Mayo a few months ago? had Phillies back then at 15th.

       Phillies: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
       Parada was a top-50 Draft prospect a year ago who went undrafted because of his commitment to Georgia Tech. A Draft-eligible sophomore in 2022, he kept up his reputation as an advanced hitter with a .929 OPS and continued to swing the bat well this summer for USA Baseball, though the jury might still be out regarding his ability to stay behind the plate.
       https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-mock-draft-mlb-top-prospects

       1. Yeah. I did see that, Romus. Parada had a really good freshman season. Don’t know if he has the defensive chops to stay behind the plate, but the bat should play in LF or 1B. He’s a first rounder.

60. Braves make it to the WS. Alex A. Deserves a ton of credit. He has done a tremendous job. I don’t root for them but they are so much better than we are. Harper would start, Wheeler would have a Rotation spot and probably Realmuto catches. No one else on our team plays for them. DD has a huge job to do, The abject failure of MacPhail and Klentak is just hard to believe.

    1. Nola could be a mid-to- back-end rotation pitcher
       Depends on Soroka’s return to health and if Morton begins an aging slide.
       Fried and Anderson are one-two as of now.
       I am not yet sold on Ynoa.

61. https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/nlcs-dodgers-braves-phillies-nl-east-2022

    1. Rocky….mark8;29’s list:
       Logan O’Hoppe….. Jordan Viars….. Bryson Stott
       Luis Garcia…. Alec Bohm……… Ethan Wilson
       Johan Rojas/Yhoswar Garcia…. Jhailyn Ortiz
       Mick Abel/Andrew Painter…. Erik Miller

       …there are those few that may take a 3 or more year journey to the big leagues……Abel/Painter/Viars/Y. Garcia

       But the remaining…..if they come around….could be there in 3 or less years.

       And that is not to mention Moniak, Haseley, Marchan or even Maton as a super UT role player

62. Can’t rely on Moniak at all. 4th outfielder of lucky. Would be gone already if not for being number one over all. I also remember people telling me Dom Brown Cozens Alfaro Kingery Quinn Medina Jake Thompson Mark Appel Nick William Sweeny and Medina. Hall we’re going to be hits

63. Yes I like Abel and Painter hopefully at least one hits and looks like they may be gotten some good bats in this years draft. Plus maybe one of the three centerfielders can make it too. I also see some BP arms in this draft like the guy from UVA. Don’t get me wrong I want to see the Phils win. But feel you have to do it right so they go on a run of winning like the Howard Utley teams did and made from the pharm like that team

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