2021 Post Draft Discussion; July 18th

Less than a week after the 2021 Amateur Draft has concluded, the Phillies have announced that they have signed their top eleven draft selections.  In addition, they have inked as many as ten non-drafted free agents.

In the days after the draft, the Phillies had expressed confidence that they would sign their top ten picks and were equally confident that they would come to an agreement with 18 of their 20 picks and hoped to encourage the other two to sign also.

Signing bonus information has been released and the Phillies could have a hard time inking all twenty picks.  To date, they have a little over $40K for overages for picks 12 thru 20.  Here’s what’s been released.  A complete breakdown is in the 2021 Draft Tracker.

  1. RHP Andrew Painter, signed under slot – $3,900,000
  2. OF Ethan Wilson, signed full slot – $1,507,600
  3. OF Jordan Viars, signed over slot – $747,500
  4. RHP Micah Ottenbreit, signed over slot – $775,000
  5. RHP Griff McGarry, signed under slot – $322,500
  6. RHP Jose Pena, signed under slot – $222,500
  7. RHP Christian McGowan, signed over slot – $577,500
  8. RHP Jason Ruffcom, signed under slot – $147.500
  9. OF Gavin Tonkel, signed over slot – $247,500
  10. OF Logan Cerny, signed full slot – $146,100
  11. RHP Andrew Baker, signed over $125K – $200,000
  12. 3B TJ Rumfield, signed for $125,000
  13. OF Jared Carr, signed under $125K – $50,000
  14. LHP Jose Valadez-Acuna, signed for $125,000
  15. LHP Matt Osterberg, signed under $125K – $100,000
  16. RHP Ty Collins, not signed
  17. RHP Alex Garbrick, signed under $125K – $30,000
  18. RHP Malik Binns, signed for $125,000
  19. RHP Seth Halvorsen, not signed
  20. RHP Cam Wynne, signed under $125K – $50,000

And, the NDFAs

  1. RHP Konnor Ash
  2. RHP Alex McKenney
  3. RHP Tommy McCollum
  4. RHP Matt Russell
  5. 1B Matt Goodheart
  6. LHP Jared Wetherbee
  7. 3B/C Anthony Quirion
  8. LHP Tristan Garnett
  9. SS Freylin Minyety
  10. LHP Parker Scott

I hope to be able to confirm rumors about picks 12 thru 20 at the Complex tomorrow.  The FCL game starts at ten.  I can enter at nine.  Hopefully, the new guys will wear stuff with their names on the back.


I’ve noticed concerns regarding roster space for all these new guys.  Some are expecting a mass release.

Teams are allowed 180 minor league players on their stateside rosters during the season.  Active rosters are limited to 28 each for Triple-A and Double-A, 30 each for High-A and Low-A, and no limit for Complex league teams.  (There is a 35 player limit for each DSL team, but that doesn’t come into play here.)

Drafted players do NOT count against player limits until they are placed on a roster and play in a league game.  They WILL count when the season is over, but the player limit goes to 190 then.  NDFAs don’t count until 15 days after signing if not on a league roster.

So, theoretically, some (or all) drafted players can spend the next two months working out at the Complex until the season is over.  That buys a little time until the players on the 60-day IL are reinstated.  Historically, the Phillies are careful with pitchers who may have been overworked by their college coaches.

So, there may be one mass release.  Or, a couple groups of releases.  Or, a long drawn put process of a few releases each week or so.  We’ll see.


The draft tab on the menu above is active and up-to-date.

The Draft >>> 2021 Draft Discussions and Picks includes all our draft articles for this year and past years, as well as other links.  Some older links may no longer be active.


All draft talk is encouraged here.  I will start new threads if/when the number of comments becomes too unwieldy.  In the past, that has been weekly.

 

25 thoughts on “2021 Post Draft Discussion; July 18th

  1. Thank you for the clarification about roster space. Glad to hear that the top 11 draft picks have been signed, and eager to begin tracking their development (mostly through the gracious help of you and others on the ground)!

  2. We have received lots of info on the 20 drafted players; can anyone expound on the NDFA’s? Thanks.

  3. It never made sense that there would be mass releases upon signing, though obviously with any roster limit (180 or 190) there will be releases of 30 players when we sign 30 more players. This is par for the course and most generally happen after the season or in spring training. So while the timing will change a bit and the limit is lower than in the past (and we will only bring in 30 as opposed to closer to 40 new players), the same evaluation process should not change that much.

    I assume one way to finesse the rules is probably going to involve leaving players in the DSL for an extra year or two also until they are ready for full season ball. I am guessing there will be overall organizational roster limits at some point to deal with that.

    1. Every year the Phillies do sign a minimum of 20/30 international players…so that will also be a difficult juggling act trying to finesse the rules.
      Plus the academy at Boca Chica, though very large, houses a max of 75/80 players.
      The numbers can get crunchy after the latest international signing period is completed..

  4. Just a reminder that drafted guys get special treatment over “filler” guys. Sad but true. Most of these guys will be playing in the FCL over other guys. Some will go to CWater level but they’re all right there so it will be easier. Some pitchers who are older and not progressing will be released. Also, sad but true. I don’t believe many guys will just sit around and lose a chance to play for a month or two so “fillers” can play. Yes, every team has fillers. We have several pitchers at A ball who deserve and will get promotions soon.

  5. Not sure if anyone posted this already.

    .

    Phillies

    Some (risk-averse) teams will not even consider a prep righty in the first round, but scouting director Brian Barber has gone to the well twice, with Mick Abel last year and Painter this year, both similar prep righties. Painter had interest right behind this and seemed like a threat to get floated to the 30s for overslot money a notch below what slot is at the 13th pick. Wilson was polarizing due to his limitations (left field only) and mid-major competition, but was a solid value in the second round. I didn’t know much about Viars other than his name and that he was a position player; he’s a type like Wilson who will need to hit and hit for power to justify this pick. Ottenbreit is a projection cold-weather arm with a couple of solid qualities but varying evaluations around the industry.
    McGarry was a favorite of our CWS broadcast staff for his great postseason outings but has a long track record of lively stuff with poor quality strikes. RHP Jose Pena Jr. (sixth) is not only the first draftee from my high school, but the first player to even get real pro interest (no, it’s wasn’t me) while in high school, justifying it with a heater that was up to 99 mph late in the spring and a plus-flashing spike curveball.

  6. If we’re saying the past two draft were Barber drafts that is a bit worrisome to me. I’ve never looked at the Yankees and thought to myself that they were great amateur talent evaluators.

    Now maybe Barber was in those draft rooms saying to Cashman we should take this guy and Cash was taking the other guy who knows.

    1. Yes, DMAR. I’ve had those same concerns since Barber was hired. But … like you said … Barber wasn’t amateur scouting director in NY. He was a national crosschecker. There’s no way of us knowing how much influence he wielded in the Yankees draft room. Were Cashman and Damon Oppenheimer (amateur scouting director) inclusive when drafting, or was it more of an autocratic process?
      The one move Barber made right after getting the job that made feel good was when he hired national crosschecker David Crowson away from the Marlins. Crowson was part of the team who identified, scouted, and drafted prep players very successfully in Miami. They selected kids like Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, JT Realmuto, Jose Fernandez, Josh Naylor, Chris Paddack, and Trevor Rogers. That’s a pretty good resume right there. Can’t say for certain how much sway Crowson holds with Barber. I’m assuming he must have been promised some authority to leave the Marlins for the Phils. And you see the club has gone heavy on HS players during the first two Barber/Crowson drafts.

      1. That is an interesting point. The Marlins have never shied away from taking high ceiling HS players in the first round.

        1. And it has cost them also…between 2007 and 2017…..I count more than a few round HS draftees, who fail to measure up taken in the first round by the Fish:
          …..Matt Dominguez….Kyle Skipworth…..Chad James…..Matt Krook …..Blake Anderson…..Tyler Kolek….Josh Naylor….Braxton Garrett(???)

          https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=FLA&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

          They hit on Rogers, Fernandez, and Yelich, but they take the risk most of the time and realize the pitfalls when it does not always martialize..

          1. I agree 100%. There is a lot of risk with taking HS players in the first round. And yet, they keep on going in there.

            1. Romus … that is quite a bit of misses … but … I’d gladly eat all of the misses you listed for a club with Stanton, Yelich, Realmuto, Fernandez (if he hadn’t died), Paddack, and Rogers on my roster. The Marlins, and the Phillies now are not risk averse. You swing for the fences. Sometimes you strike out, but sometimes you hit a grand slam.
              Under Klentak/Almaraz, the Phillies were risk averse. We ended up with a lot of high floor picks w/o a whole lot of ceiling. The team has had to go FA shopping to bring in their best/star players. BTW … those star players they acquired through free agency (Harper/JTR/McCutchen/Wheeler) were all drafted out of HS.

  7. Can someone clear up something I totally realize is unimportant? In the draft tracker (and I didn’t check the summations of the payments listed so maybe that is it) the % Remaining Under (lot + 5%) is listed as $41,550. Does anyone know how excel calculated that to be the number, and not approximately $118,000 ?

    Total Slot Allotment $8,295,000
    Total Slot plus 5% $8,709,750
    Total Paid Against Slot $8,593,200
    $ Remaining Under Slot + 5% $41,550

    1. Total slot plus 5% = $8,709,750
      Total paid against slot = $8,593,200
      Difference = $116,550

      The 11th round pick (Andrew Baker) signed for $200k, which is $75k over slot. That $75k excess counts toward the total bonus pool. So the the $ remaining under the slot + 5% cap is:

      $116,550 – $75,000 = $41,550

    2. I💗PP … 11th round pick Andrew Baker signed for 200-thousand dollars 75-thousand of that eats into their bonus pool. Not sure if you calculated Baker’s bonus.

  8. For like the first time ever, it seems, all of the Phillies draft information is available and up-to-date. I don’t remember ever having all this info so quickly. (Okay, the dates aren’t exact, but all the listed signings happened. And, really, all we care about is the bonus info so we can track how much is remaining.)

    The Phillies have signed the 18 draft picks that they expected to sign. Bonuses have been added to the Draft Tracker and the article above has been updated, too.

    The Phillies didn’t have to offer over $125K for picks 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, and 20. So, they still have about $41K available to add to $125K to entice #16 Collins or #19 Halvorsen to sign.

    There is a discrepancy between the bonus for $4 Matt Ottenbreit – MLB has him receiving $775K while BA has him at $772,500. The $2,500 difference might be the contingency bonus that other teams have taken advantage in the past and the Phillies hadn’t. I’ll go with the higher number for now.

    Regardless, the Phillies have spent almost $9.4 million so far plus the $200K maximum they could have spent on the NDFAs.

    1. I was very excited Jim, to see that the 2021 draft information was easily seen through the “Draft” tab at the top of the website. Maybe it is just me, but now it seems that it is just like it has been earlier this year and before and all that is visible there at the Phuture Phillie Draft tab is the 2010, 1009 and earlier draft info. Just me? It is definitely possible to see all the information on the draft you have done so well at compiling Jim; It was so nice when the Draft tab led right to i.

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