2021 Draft Discussion: Day Two

Last night, the Phillies used their first-round pick to select RHP Andrew Painter, a high school pitcher out of Calvary Christian in Florida.  Let’s hope they pick as well today.

This is the thread for the Day Two discussion.


This should go live an hour before the draft coverage starts at 1:00 PM on MLB.com.  I have an appointment, and then may or may not attend the FCL game instead of monitoring the draft.  I haven’t decided.


The Phillies had the 13th overall selection in the first round.  They have a second-round pick for the first time since 2017 and will make it as the 49th overall pick tomorrow.

The Phillies have a bonus pool allotment of $8,295,000.


The complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  1. 13th overall: $4,197,300
  2. 49th overall: $1,507,600
  3. 84th overall: $721,900
  4. 114th overall: $507,400
  5. 145th overall: $375,200
  6. 175th overall: $284,200
  7. 205th overall: $222,100
  8. 235th overall: $177,400
  9. 265th overall: $155,800
  10. 295th overall: $146,100
  11. 325th overall: picks in rounds 11 thru 20 are each capped at $125, 000 which doesn’t count against the bonus pool; any portion exceeding this figure counts against the bonus pool.
  12. 355th overall: capped at $125, 000
  13. 385th overall: capped at $125, 000
  14. 415th overall: capped at $125, 000
  15. 445th overall: capped at $125, 000
  16. 475th overall: capped at $125, 000
  17. 505th overall: capped at $125, 000
  18. 535th overall: capped at $125, 000
  19. 565th overall: capped at $125, 000
  20. 595th overall: capped at $125, 000

Contracts for non-drafted free agents are capped at $20,000.


Schedule (All Times ET)

Monday, July 12
Day 2
Rounds 2-10 (including Competitive Balance A after Round 2)
Live on MLB.com
Round 2 begins at 1 p.m.
Tuesday, July 13
Day 3
Rounds 11-20
Live on MLB.com
Round 11 begins at noon ET

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.


As in previous years, I’ll post a place for daily draft discussions until the draft is completed,  then, weekly draft discussions until the signing period is over (August 1st).  Draft signings will be tracked here – 2021 Draft Tracker

 

185 thoughts on “2021 Draft Discussion: Day Two

  1. I’m not convinced we saved more than 200K on Painter. I’m just hoping for fair value related to where we pick today.

    1. Did you see something about the projected signing bonus for Painter? Without any info to the contrary, I would expect little or no discount from slot to sign him away from his college commitment (Florida).

      1. I’m curious about that as well. Florida is a really nice school for a player of Painter’s ilk. It would seem to me he has the Phillies over a barrel to get an over slot deal.

        Hopefully they already had a deal worked out

        1. Plus, Painter was rated the #18 or #19 prospect in a couple ratings that I saw. It’s not like the Phillies taking him at 1:13 was a big reach or way out of line.

        2. DMAR…let him go if the price is not right….the Phillies will get the 14th pick next year, plus theie regular pick.
          That happened to the Braves with Carter, and it worked out for them the following year.

  2. Rocco, I saw your question to Hinkie on the Day 1 thread. He gave 5 names, Solometo, Coppola, Baez, Morrisette, and Vastine. All of them sound good to me!

  3. It’s always difficult to predict the signing bonuses (especially for the guys in the early rounds).

    I wonder if there’s any chance Dombrowski and Barber employ the “all our eggs in the first three rounds” strategy the Mets used in 2019. That summer, NY took three top 40 ranked draft prospects with their first three picks. All three were high upside prep players: Brett Baty (1st round), Josh Wolf (2nd round), Matt Alan (3rd round).
    Baty signed for 3.9M – slot was 4.37M
    Wolf signed for 2.15M – slot was 1.37M
    Allan signed for 2.5M – slot was 667-thousand
    They then went all ridiculously unde-rslot senior signs on day two (rounds 4-10).

    This year, the draft is loaded with older players because so many kids had to return to college after the 2020 truncated 5 round draft.

    Any chance the Phillies do something like:
    Andrew Painter 3.9M – 1st round slot 4.2M
    Josh Baez 2.4M – 2nd round slot 1.5M
    Pierce Coppola 2M – 3rd round slot 722-thousand
    Then spend the rest of today drafting guys like Kevin Kopps, Mike Antico, Tanner Allen, and Tim Tawa?

    Or do Barbaer/Dombrowski just go the traditional route?

    1. Hinkie they only have like 19 days to sign, Thats what i thought i heard. If they sign in august only about three weeks to get into gcl games i believe. Hope they move this draft back to april, so we dont waste the whole summer of development

      1. Rocco … think long term. A handful of ABs or IPs this summer aren’t going to have a significant impact on a kid’s development. The real work begins with fall instructs.

  4. I so hate the compensatory picks for competitive balance. If they need to do it, it should be later like the 5 th round or so. St Louis has a large area throughout MO, IA, AR and other states in Midwest also get good attendance. Philadelohia has a limited range due to NY, Baltimore, Washington, Pitts.. Just offloading.

  5. Solometo off the board, went to Pirates at 2:37. Probably wishful thinking to even hope that he would be available for the Phillies at 2:49.

  6. Second day draft picks IMO make or break draft classes for teams… Are they likely to all be future All-Stars, nope. But they can solidify a team at numerous positions with depth or offer interesting trade chips for players you may need down the road..

  7. Phillies select Ethan Wilson of South Alabama at 2:49. Wilson is left-handed hitting (and throwing) OF. MLB.com had him rated as their #35 prospect, so decent value from that perspective.

    1. DMAR…..chin up, stiff upper lip, all that stuff,
      ….the 5th round is where the Phillies make their money! 🙂

  8. 26 by Baseball America. definitely not a reach. Contact rate has gone up while power went down, hit 17 HRs as a FR in 2019. Solid pick

  9. ranked #31 by Keith Law. Noted that his K-rate last year was under 10% but his power numbers also dropped.

    Trend or just an odd season?

  10. Following the draft while trying to get some work done. Probably doing neither very well.

    Good luck to the kid (Etah Wilsobn) . Not a kid I probably would have picked. In fact, I liked each of the next five guys better: Mikulski, Smith, Morissette(!), Abbott, and Baez(!!!!!!).

  11. BA has him ranked # 25 – they report that he has + raw power but some scouts think his swing too stiff to be a truly plus hitter. He is reputed to be a left fielder thanks to limited arm strength and below average speed. In a draft class light on college bats he stands out for his hitting ability, power potential, and on base skills – so they report.

  12. Some guys I like in round 3:

    Justyn Henry-Malloy, Luke Murphy

    Pierce Cappolo and Jackson Baumeister are a couple of HS arms they’d have to over slot for.

    And Jonathan Vastine has been mentioned as another over slot HS player.

  13. Jordan Viars. Very big and very young. Don’t know much else about him.

  14. Interesting pick but seems like an underslot option. Jordan Viars is a 2021 OF/1B with a 6-4 215 lb. frame from Prosper, TX who attends Reedy. Extra tall with long arms and wide shoulders that can still add considerable bulk. Ran a 6.94 in the sixty yard dash. A primary outfielder, stays behind the ball with a methodical approach to the ball. Good body control and works through the ball with balance. Solid arm strength that will play in all spots. A left-handed hitter, starts relaxed and in line with the base. Big bat speed and whip through the zone and long carry when squared up out front. Multiple homeruns to the pule side and ended with a towering shot to centerfield. Huge offensive potential. Outstanding student.

  15. Jordan Viars is a 2021 OF/1B with a 6-4 215 lb. frame from Prosper, TX who attends Reedy. Extra tall with long arms and wide shoulders that can still add considerable bulk. Ran a 6.94 in the sixty yard dash. A primary outfielder, stays behind the ball with a methodical approach to the ball. Good body control and works through the ball with balance. Solid arm strength that will play in all spots. A left-handed hitter, starts relaxed and in line with the base. Big bat speed and whip through the zone and long carry when squared up out front. Multiple homeruns to the pule side and ended with a towering shot to centerfield. Huge offensive potential. Outstanding student.

    Definitely looking like an overslot coming.

  16. Still like Justyn Henry-Malloy and Luke Murphy. Jalen Battles is another kid I like a lot.

    Ryan Webb and Mo Hanley are a couple of college LHP’s recovering from TJ who would be good picks.

    Slugging Notre Dame 1Bman Niko Kavadas could start getting consideration in the next couple/few rounds.

  17. Hinkie, The Phils are not looking at your lists! How did this kid not make a Top 250? Rd.5, the Phils’ wheelhouse, is coming up soon!

  18. Nothing on the 4th round pick Michigan high schooler Micah Ottenbreit RHP on MLB. I imagine we save some $ on the South Alabama OF since he will be 22 later this year.

  19. I can kinda see the 3rd round high school pick because if he can’t be signed that’s a compensatory selection next year after the 3rd round. The 4th round pick also on a high schooler is a little more unusual because usually these would be college senior ‘save money to increase bonuses to the other slot’ type round.

  20. perfect game write-up

    Micah Ottenbreit is a 2021 RHP/1B with a 6-4 175 lb. frame from Trenton, MI who attends Trenton. Long and lean athletic build with huge physical projection remaining. High 3/4’s arm slot with a long and deep arm action in back, very fast arm coming through and creates lots of leverage at release. Low 90’s fastball, topped out at 94 mph, worked fastball to both sides of the plate well. True power curveball up to 82 mph, had very tight hard spin when he was on top of it, potential plus pitch with consistency on his release. Showed some feel for his change up with running life. Three-pitch starter profile with a very high physical ceiling. Good student, verbal commitment to Michigan State.

  21. It would be cool to get back to picking players that the ranking services have at least heard of. Just my opinion.

  22. Micah Ottenbreit is a 2021 RHP/1B with a 6-4 175 lb. frame from Trenton, MI who attends Trenton. Long and lean athletic build with huge physical projection remaining. High 3/4’s arm slot with a long and deep arm action in back, very fast arm coming through and creates lots of leverage at release. Low 90’s fastball, topped out at 94 mph, worked fastball to both sides of the plate well. True power curveball up to 82 mph, had very tight hard spin when he was on top of it, potential plus pitch with consistency on his release. Showed some feel for his change up with running life. Three-pitch starter profile with a very high physical ceiling. Good student, verbal commitment to Michigan State.

  23. It’s interesting to see the Phillies go 3 HS players with their first 4 picks. You figure you might have to go overslot with some of them.

    1. But the other side is that they are all rated below where they are drafted, including Painter. I think these picks are guys they like and they think they can go underslot on some and perhaps even all of them (going $200-$300K under on Painter seems reasonable). The one college guy should clearly get his full slot or close to it.

      I think they will be very aggressive in rounds 11-13 along with at least one more pick today.

  24. Griff McGarry is an excellent choice in 5th round. Was really good as a starter in the NCAA Baseball Tourney.

    1. I had him as an 8th rounder in one of my mocks. Here’s what I wrote.

      Griff McGarry … is a California kid who made his way across the country to throw for the University of Virginia. The 22 YO, 6’2″/190 lb RHP has been used as both a starter and reliever in college, but (because of high BB-rates) will probably work out of a MLB pen. McGarry brings the heat. His FB touches 99, though he sits mostly 93-96. His SL and CH are both bat missing offerings, but are inconsistant. This season, the Cavalier hurler went 43 IP, 30 H, 42 BB, 69 K. He saved his best for the NCAA Baseball Tournament. He registered 17.2 IP, 5 H, 9 BB, 26 K over three games vs Old Dominion, Dallas Baptist, and (eventual College WS winner) Mississippi St. McGarry was picked in the 37th round by Texas out of HS. He’ll go higher next week.

  25. Certainly a change from previous group who’s focus was on pitchability. Early focus is on projectible talent with higher risk/reward.

    My preferred approach for drafting players.

    1. Many HS selections always have that “higher risk/reward.’ aspect.
      In Viars and Micah Ott. it is a matter of signability …..they may have to go over a little to get them. But if their scouts are right….it may be worth it.

      1. Yes, high schoolers are always a bigger risk but they also appear to be looking specifically at guys who have more projection to their game. Viars and Ott are both more projection than current production.

        And the Griff is obviously a pick of velocity vs. pitching ability with that walk rate.

  26. Jose Pena looks like another high upside arm.
    Young (turns 18 this month). Good size. Is committed to FIU (where Dante Girardi plays).

    Also some good video of the kid from Kiley McDaniel (further down in the thread.

  27. Jason Ruffcorn is a nice senior sign. I had him mocked to the Phillies in an early mock. Here is my write up.

    Jason Ruffcorn … is yet another older, cost cutting college pitcher who could not only help the Phillies afford their first three picks, but could be fast tracked to club’s BP. Jason is the son of former Phillie Scott Ruffcorn. The 6’2″/205 lb Sooner closer attacks hitters from a funky arm angle that helps to make his 93-95 FB/sinker/CH move. Over the past couple of seasons, Ruffcorn has averaged 12.1 K & just 1.3 BB/9 IP. He’ll turn 23 in July.

    1. Dombrowski/Barber aren’t playing games. They have targeted high upside power arms, and have absolutely restocked the system with arms!

  28. In the 9th and 10th rounds, you’re probably going to see a couple more senior signs. Tim Tawa (not sure if he’s been picked yet) is a guy with connections to Sam Fuld, and should be a candidate for the Phillies. Both Stanford guys. As a matter of fact, Tawa gets Fuld comps.

  29. Gavin Tonkel is not a senior sign. He’s a HS player. Not sure how they’re going to afford all of these prepsters. I’ve never heard of Tonkel. Sounds like he’s got plus speed. Was committed to Sacramento St (Rhys Hoskins’s alma mater).

  30. Mets’ Cohen going over-over slot on Rocker…$6m plus…makes Scott Boras happy.
    Other owners….not so much.

      1. Yovan used to be a two way player at Oregon. Blood clots have mostly ended his career on the mound. He now mans 3B.. Had a big time arm (mucho velo). Still has thunder in the bat. He’s 23. Thought someone would pick him as a money saver today.

        1. Hinkie – you know so much about these guys – truly, it’s amazing. Thanks for keeping us informed!!

    1. Yeah, Romus. They cleaned up on the arms in days one and two.
      Lot of pretty strong bats still available on day three.

      Niko Kavadas
      Jalen Battles
      Damiano Palmegiani
      Luca Tresh
      Grant Richardson
      Josh Hood
      and … Marcos Pujols is a personal favorite!

      1. Palmegiani intrigues me with his massive power (26 HR I think), same with Kavadas, it’s just what position each of them would be suited for.

        I’m 50/50 on this draft as I do think we drafted a few too many HS players, but down the road will tell how that plays out.

  31. Are you kidding me? Logan Cerny is much better than anything I was expecting in round 10! Dombrowski/Barber are killing it so far!

  32. Clearly, they are going for high upside prospects, and since I have been one complaining for years that we don’t have enough elite talent in the farm system, I certainly can’t complain. Ruffcorn could be in our BP sooner rather than later, but most of the other picks are very high upside. Griff McGarry has clear issues with command, but great stuff. The story I read on him mentioned the lack of future success if the control issues keep up, but his stuff is so good, the scouts keep coming back. I think we have some guys to dream on, and I choose to take the optimistic view. I have no idea how the scouts look at players and what they see, but the write ups on Logan Cerny do not seem like a 10th Rd pick to me.

  33. For those of you who say this day has been a “eh”, why do you feel that way? I’m assuming you haven’t seen any of the guys drafted in person. Outside of Hinkie, who really studies these kids? In my opinion, they have chased high upside talent that I assume they believe they can get signed. That’s great! It’s the strategy that Pre-Barber most of us said we wanted. Don’t worry if you don’t know all the names. Trust the current group of scouts over the tv talking heads. I am very pro Barber. Of course, many of these kids won’t get close to their ceiling. But some could. You can’t win with safe drafting and okay players. We need stars to win and they come from high upside kids.
    Then we’ll focus on our development people to see how they’re doing, but that’s for another day.

    1. Agree with Murray. This has been a helluva draft for high upside players (especially arms)! The farm is going to flush with lower level pitching. They also picked a couple of relievers (McGarry and Ruffcorn) who could be quick movers. And Cerny in round 10? Whoa! More than I was expecting.

    2. Perfectly said. Exactly how I feel.

      Absurd to criticize these kids as a casual fan. Pro scouts spend all year watching these kids. They went after high upside kids. I love that. Hope they get everyone signed.

      1. It’s fine to criticize the approach but not so much the individual picks because we generally know so little about these guys. It’s definitely a different philosophy than the last group had.

        Some of these picks will probably seem overmatched out of the gate but hopefully a few of them pop. And yes hopefully everyone signs; that’s a must in the first 10 rounds no matter the approach.

  34. Mets…….9 of 10 picks were college
    Braves,,,,8 of 10 were college
    Nats……..7 of 10 were college
    Phillies ….half and half.

  35. Love the draft so far, Draft the pitchers and buy the bats! Love it. Congrats to the Phillies, so tired of us thinking we can develop bats that we are subpar with, this draft will be evaluated in three years….so congrats on taking a “Love Boat” of pitchers!

  36. Two to three years will tell us about this draft. I’m not blown away by any of the pics even going back to Painter. The overwhelmingly amount of HS kids on day two tells me there’s a 2021 trade line fire sale due to us not contending in the next two-three years and we’re rebuilding.

    1. Even college kids aren’t coming up anytime soon. Who knows what the team will look like in 3 years. Draft the players you think will be the best. Don’t focus on your timeline.

    1. Cannon is still young (only two years at Georgia). He’s throwing on the Cape this summer. He probably demanded a high number, knowing he he’ll still be 21 YO for the 2022 draft, and has a chance to be a first rounder.

  37. I was a little disappointed in Ethan Wilson over Josh Baez in round 2. But they would have had to overpay Baez. Wilson (who has a nice track record in a mid major conference, and with the College National Team) should sign for slot, and allow the club to sign the army of high upside prepsters they drafted today.

  38. I’m in the minority on this draft but so far but you never know for a couple of years. I hope I’m wrong. I want every pick to kick butt because we need the athleticism. Just thought there were better college players available at almost every turn which translates to MLB success sooner. Maybe the plan is a four year tear down and these kids will be ready to contribute in 2025

  39. I thought it was a well-executed plan and a productive day for the Phillies. Wilson is solid at #2 and the two high school kids at #3 and #4 are players they believe are going to project up over the next year, so they’re trying to snag them before that happens. I’ll be curious to see the $ allocation when everything settles but my guess is any money that was under-slotted elsewhere was given to Viars and Ottenbreit to convince them to sign.

    After that, grab as many power arms as you can along with a couple of fast twitch OF’s. Excited to watch them all develop and look forward to seeing the plan for tomorrow.

    1. Two that could be an issue e…Joes Pena 9Fla International) and Gavin Tonkel. (Sac State)
      Not sure if they have firm college commitments…and if the Phillies are willing to go a little over-slot for them.

      1. If they drafted them (on day one or two), they’re signing them. Brian Barber knows their asking price.

        1. Agreed. My sarcasm above didn’t translate. There’s a reason why several HS players that were ranked higher didn’t get drafted. Leaguewide, I think a few kids will end up going to college but 98% of them will sign.

  40. Even college kids aren’t coming up anytime soon. Who knows what the team will look like in 3 years. Draft the players you think will be the best. Don’t focus on your timeline.

    1. A lot to like with Cerny. Seems very twitchy. Tooled up. One red flag is that he struck out nearly 30% of us PAs his junior year. That is a really high K rate in college. Especially against non-power 5 teams.

  41. Love the high upside of this draft so far! I agree with the majority that it fosters hope.

    The Phillies slowly re-shaped their FO by bringing in Bonifay, Barber, & Dombrowski. I’ve been a believer! We all agree we want a strong system so we can have sustained success! Let’s give these guys time. (God knows we’ve given a ton of time to lesser.).

    1. That is a good article to read on the draft ranking.
      One thing for sure…of all the teams in the NL-East…Phillies took the more high school players within the first ten rounds.

      1. What makes this particular ranking even more impressive is that the other three teams on the list had a competitive balance pick early in the draft to help boost their status and the Phillies did not.

        1. Oh yes…you are correct…I forgot all about that…Reds, Pirates and Indians all have that extra high pick…with the slot money.
          Man that irks me every time I hear about those Comp Balance picks.

      1. Yes thank you. Painter interview is impressive. He is very mature and gives me optimism. He is modeling himself after Justin Verlander.

    1. Avila is growing arms…..in two years the Tigers rotation could be the deepest and most talented in baseball…if they stay healthy.

      1. Romus looking at the 2017 draft H aseley has played in majors, Howard has too, plus a lot of people on here think seabold is going to be great ,Maton has played in majors. Lindow has a chance Brogdon is in the bullpen, so far a really good draft i would say

        1. There’s a lot of maybe’s with the 2017 draft. Maybe Haseley finds his rookie year groove. Maybe Howard puts his velocity issues behind him. Maybe Maton will prove his limited time wasn’t a fluke. We need a starter level player from the 2017 draft and we havent found it yet. Relievers don’t make a draft because their WAR is utimately very limited (usually < 2) and they're volatile year to year.

        2. rocco…yes a lot of MLB players…..lets see how consistent they become…hopefully consistently good contributors.
          Haseley played recently in the FSL…rehab assignment I assume.
          Maybe he will make his way back.

  42. I also like the Phillies approach to this draft as opposed to the previous regime. When you make a bunch of “safe” projectable picks (high floor) then you’ll get very few impact MLB calibre players. When you make enough high ceiling/high risk selections, especially in mid to latter rounds, you’re bound to strike gold. Fearing busts while drafting unpredictable young talent is the sure way to remain mediocre at best. Thumbs up so far to Barber and Dombrowski.

    1. On the whole, I’m pretty happy with this draft. You almost never go wrong looking for big, projectable arms. During the Almaraz years, we only got two really projectable arms (Falter and Howard) in those drafts because, in an era of uber-power pitchers, Johnny was focused primarily on control (I still can’t believe that). Thank God that’s over.

      I also like the hitters. For too many years we focused on moderate upside middle infielders? Why? There are always a bunch of guys like that floating around AAA and the majors that can be had on the cheap (hello Ronald Torreyes) – it’s a waste of time and resources if they don’t have a lot of upside. Rather, they got some big potential outfield bats. If they get one regular and one 4th outfielder from this year’s hitters haul, that’s a big win. And love the tape of Cerny – the bat speed is unreal. Yeah, he’s a risk, but so what? He’s a 10th round draft pick who has legitimate big league potential. Works for me.

      1. FYI – I know I’m missing some projectable arms we got during the Almaraz era. Connor Brogdon was a great draft pick and very projectable and JoJo Romero was and is projectable too. Seabold is not a hard thrower, but I do believe he has a big league future if he can get healthy – there is upside there.

        As for 2019, I know Barber wasn’t on the payroll that year, but it was crystal clear from the team’s picks that Almaraz had already lost power in the organization. Erik Miller and Andrew Schultz are generally not the type of guys Alamarz would have selected – high risk, high upside power pitchers with control issues.

  43. Thanks Wayne for that post. I am also very optimistic about this draft. Of course, as mark stated above, it is in the hands of the player development department, and I think they have a lot to work with. We have plenty of tools to be developed. Let’s see a couple of these guys really excel! We have a chance to have some really good players out of this draft, and I have heard a lot of folks dreaming on an Abel/Painter TOR! We could use a few good breaks going our way!

    1. matt13….i think you can also dram on Micah Ottenbreit….he should bring it in the mid-90s and higher at some point.
      IMO, Phillies will probably go over-slot for him, that $500K may be a little too low.

  44. Good point Romus, I went and re-read the article and they state that “Ottenbreit had massive helium, and a top 100 ranking from a couple of their analysts.” More good stuff. I feel that they have a good idea of what the signings will cost, at least in the Top 10 selections, so I am confident we get most of these guys signed.

    1. matt…you do not want most all sign….you want 100% signed…..but there is always the one that drags on and is hesitant.
      Micah Ott. IMO would be the one right now….thinking about now, Pena and Tonkel really do not have the leverage to hold out and negotiate… , especially going to schools that normally do not produce drafted MLB players.

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