2021 Draft Discussion: Day One – RHP Andrew Painter

The Phillies used their first-round pick to select RHP Andrew Painter, a HS pitcher out of Calvary Christian in Florida. 


Painter is 6’7, 215 lbs, born on April 10, 2003, R/R.  He has been scouted as a pitcher with huge raw stuff and an advanced feel for pitching.  He struck out 54% of the batters he faced his senior year.  (Pedro Martinez likes him and comps him to Mark Pryor.)


The Phillies had the 13th overall selection in the first round.  They have a second-round pick for the first time since 2017 and will make it as the 49th overall pick tomorrow.

The Phillies have a bonus pool allotment of $8,295,000.


The complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  1. 13th overall: $4,197,300
  2. 49th overall: $1,507,600
  3. 84th overall: $721,900
  4. 114th overall: $507,400
  5. 145th overall: $375,200
  6. 175th overall: $284,200
  7. 205th overall: $222,100
  8. 235th overall: $177,400
  9. 265th overall: $155,800
  10. 295th overall: $146,100
  11. 325th overall: picks in rounds 11 thru 20 are each capped at $125, 000 which doesn’t count against the bonus pool; any portion exceeding this figure counts against the bonus pool.
  12. 355th overall: capped at $125, 000
  13. 385th overall: capped at $125, 000
  14. 415th overall: capped at $125, 000
  15. 445th overall: capped at $125, 000
  16. 475th overall: capped at $125, 000
  17. 505th overall: capped at $125, 000
  18. 535th overall: capped at $125, 000
  19. 565th overall: capped at $125, 000
  20. 595th overall: capped at $125, 000

Contracts for non-drafted free agents are capped at $20,000.


Schedule (All Times ET)

Monday, July 12
Day 2
Rounds 2-10 (including Competitive Balance A after Round 2)
Live on MLB.com
Round 2 begins at 1 p.m.
Tuesday, July 13
Day 3
Rounds 11-20
Live on MLB.com
Round 11 begins at noon ET

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.


As in previous years, I’ll post a place for daily draft discussions until the draft is completed,  then, weekly draft discussions until the signing period is over (August 1st).  Draft signings will be tracked here – 2021 Draft Tracker

 

60 thoughts on “2021 Draft Discussion: Day One – RHP Andrew Painter

  1. Like the pick. Has a nice, clean delivery for a tall pitcher. if he makes better use of his lower half might even add a couple MPH.

  2. Really love the pick. Maybe the Phillies are going the Braves route and stocking the system with power arms. Long-term thinking is not what the Phillies have been noted for. How about using the second round pick on Lonnie White Jr. An immense but raw talent that they could take a chance on in the second round.

    1. Sure seems that way (about stocking the system with big, projectable power arms). I have no issue with Painter, but how could you pass on Khalil Watson in that situation?

  3. I heard on ESPN that he is one of the rare young SP prospects that may have to drop one of his breaking pitches as he turns pro. He has 3, and that and his size and projection makes this a very good pick IMO

    1. I read on BA that a scout saw him throw 6 different pitches in one 38 pitch game. Apparently, he also does weird stuff like changing his arm slot a bunch to mess with hitters. He seems odd.

  4. Not unhappy with the pick, but it’s gonna be frustrating if Watson, Madden or Bednar turn out to be what they’re supposed to be. They definitely didn’t go BPA here.

    1. I’m okay with Painter over Bednar or Madden, but Watson? That’s a top 5 talent who was there for the taking. Seems hard to pass on that opportunity, but we’ll see how things work out

  5. Really like this pick. Have liked the last 4 first round picks they have made. Worst case he’s probably a mid rotation guy or a high leverage reliever. Best case he’s Walker Buehler. Very well executed pick. You can never have enough good pitching.

  6. Solid player, clean mechanics, big build, nice array of pitches — not mad at it. That said Watson was still available and I’ll be interested to track his development with the Marlins

  7. I’m okay with the pick but preferred McGreevy. The Phillies have a lot of intel on Painter, so we’ll see how he develops.

  8. So the pirates who maybe are the furthest from competing take the mlb most ready hitter. The Phils who maybe spent the most on free agents in their prime that last 2-3 years in successive years draft the most risky pics in draft right handed prep arms. What is Phils direction??? Dombrowski win soon guy Barber let’s see what we have in 4-5 years. Makes total sense

    1. This isn’t the NBA. There are no picks outside the top 2-3 that help you win within the next two years. A lot of people though Hasley was a close to mlb ready polished type and look how that worked out.

    2. It does make total sense. Even if they drafted an “almost MLB ready” player, he’s still 2+ years away in 99.999% of cases. You draft the best player. Every time. No exceptions. The only reason proximity ever comes into the debate is because it means there’s less that can go wrong in their development, so if two players are similar in potential impact, you take the one closer to being a finished product. But if your scouts and player analysts agree that the high school player has the better chance at being an impact player, you take the high school player. Every. Time.

      If you need help immediately, you don’t look for it in the draft. You draft the best prospects you can, and then trade for MLB help with some of the (now-excess) players already in your system. That is how successful teams operate. Dombrowski isn’t here to burn the organization to the ground, he’s here to get us to the playoffs. You do that by having a strong foundation from which to supplement your major league team; either through promotions or trades. You can’t trade draft picks, so the correct strategy is obvious.

      1. Agree totally with this response.

        So the question is, did the Phillies draft the best player, considering that Khalil Watson was available?

  9. I only know what I read about Painter or any other picks. What I do know is I wanted a high upside pick and a high school pitcher with top of rotation potential fits the bill. A big 6’7” strong armed pitcher seems like the kind of guy we should want.
    Now I want lots of bats in rounds 2-10.

    1. That where I am too. I am not a scout. And never saw Painter live. But I like the type of prospect that he is and the accounting reports are awesome. High upside, elite arm.

      And agree about going after bats in later rounds.

        1. Based on how much money the young man is about to be paid, the accounting reports are also very important.

  10. Like Abel – Painter was arguably the best HS pitcher available pre-draft by some sources. Like the pick as the Phillies begin to build a monster rotation in the future. and there are alot of picks left. Thought it was evident that they are following the Braves’ move to build a strong pitching rotation first and foremost.

  11. # 49 pick is next – Josh Hartle ? ; a lhp just like Painter ; Schwellenback a ss/rhp possible 2 way player – ala high risk Barber pick – his stats as a pitcher are excellent ; Trey Sweeney ?

  12. Baseball America ranked Painter as having the 1. Best changeup – from HS pick ; 1. Best control – HS pick.

  13. Joshua Hartle, a lhp, , the 3. Best changeup – HS category ; 2. Best control – HS category; he would make a nice compliment to Abel – Painter combo….

    1. Just FYI but Hartle pulled himself out of the draft and indicated to not pick him because he was going to Wake Forest regardles

      1. Interesting. I can’t say I’d do the same, or encourage my kid to do the same. The signing bonus, the minor league paycheck, and the chance to go after your dream asap. I used to think college was a good choice, but after a fair amount of life experience, its a no brainer to get drafted. Unless you are not mature enough by a long shot, then wait a year, but thats risky. You can blow your arm out in College or the Minors, one give your you a sign bonus as well as not having to beg for an opportunity to showcase yourself after an injury. A lot to consider, but draft all the way. You can always get educated during or aftwerwards.

  14. So our Draft expert Hinkie suggested Painter was a target for the first round early on. I see some of his second round suggestions like Baez may be available when they pick next. I would love to see Solometo fall to the Phil’s for their second pick.

  15. Round 2:

    Anthony Solometo … would be a grand slam pick in round 2. I would have taken him at 1-13. Can’t believe he lasts 13 more picks. We’ll see.

    Pierce Coppola … is another NJ HS prep pitcher with enormous upside.

    Josh Baez … is another kid near the top of my want list. Unreal raw power. Plus Plus arm.

    Jonathan Vastine … has reportedly been linked to the Phillies. I’ve never seen him play. He’s got a Vanderbilt scholarship. That carries a lot of weight with me.

    Cody Morrissete … has a really quick LH bat. He’d be a good choice.

    How about Jud Fabian as a high ceiling/crash-and-burn lottery ticket?

    Aaron Zavala … is one of the most polished college hitters over the 2020/2021 seasons

  16. Like the pick a lot. With young projectable arms like Painter, Abel, Miller and Lindow, the farm is regaining respectability.

    As for Khalil Watson, there were several 1st round SS’s taken in this draft. 10 were selected among the 36 total drafted last night, including comp picks. Has anyone read or heard any reason why he dropped? Money demands? Makeup concerns? Or is this draft so flush in raw talent that many teams profiled players according to need instead of simply taking the best player available?

    Perhaps Dave Dombrowski is earmarking some off season spending on a free agent SS this winter. Buy the bats, grow the arms is a sound strategy for strengthening an organization.

    1. Will the Phillies have to go over-slot…$4.2M…to sign Painter away from Florida!
      The ideal would be, he will take something smaller and they can use that savings on the 49th pick values at $1.5M or a later pick.

    2. One reason he Watson dropped is because a few teams (Pirates, Orioles, Royals) selected guys that will likely sign for significantly less than slot. Other teams (Angels, Giants, Brewers) probably wanted pitching or a college bat. And of course there were three other. prep SS (Mayer, Lawlar, House) who overall were likely considered as good or better than Watson.

      I suspect the Phillies had already decided they would select Painter if he was still available at 1:13, but in their pre-draft plans they probably also never considered that Watson would still be on the board at that point.

  17. Question for the posters. I’m reminded how much I hate the Competitive Balance picks every draft day. Is there any chance they will be eliminated in the upcoming CBA?

      1. rocco…LOL…actually two different pick types….Competitive Balance and Compensation picks…small markets get the Comp Balance…..and teams losing free agents get a Compensation.
        Cardinals fall into both categories.

          1. They use to go by the TV market size.
            I have to look to see if they still do it that way.
            But time to get rid of it……not sure why the large market clubs keep letting them have those extra picks…..after the third or fourth round would be fine with me……not the Round A or B types.

  18. Fine with Phils taking best player available. Obviously Barber likes prep Right Handers. Probably could say a RH prep pitcher is top 5 almost every year. Problem is for whatever reason they have biggest fail rate according to what I read.

    I did not see any analysis yesterday was on my kayak fluke fishing but I read clean delivery. I don’t know if that matters. Sherbet and Randy Johnson both pretty violent delivery and both pitched long time. Figure it’s just more genetics than anything.

    Maybe those 19 to 22 year old years are when lot of pitchers including prep RHs injuries show up. That Verducci article I posted that indicated of the 10 best pitchers in AL and NL 9 pitched in college prob not coincidence (2018).

    1. Patso….Johnson and I assume you meant Scherzer….were both 21-year old college drafted players. So they had the luxury of three years of college development.

      1. I’m a big fan of the college arms and not so much the HS arms that high. I don’t want to say I don’t like the pick but I do find it very risky.

        Was a big Wicks fan (Cubs at 21) despite what Rocco said. Most of the pundits said he would be quickest to the MLB with that Change Up. Even Bednar would have been better.

        Then the Indians who know college pitching as well as anyone turn around and take this kid Gavin Williams who many of the pundits predicted would end up being the best of the college pitchers taken.

        BPA philosophy sure but how and who really knows what that is

  19. Romus there are only 294,000 in the city but the area surrounding has 3 million people its a joke to call them small market,

  20. Hinkle can you give us three names you like for the second round who might fall to us ty

  21. You don’t remember sherbet. I meant Sherzer sorry. Hope Abel and Painter pan out. Just seems like risk two years in a row. Lotta guys like the sabermetrics and stats on here. No matter how good those kids look the stats for each to make it are not the best.

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