Pick 1-15, Who Do You Select?

The 2020 June Amateur Draft is approaching.  The first round will be held on June 10th.  ESPN will have live coverage of the two days of the five round draft.  If you were making the selection for the Phillies with the 15th pick in the first round, who would you select?

Of course it is difficult to imagine who will be available when it is the Phillies turn.  But, I’ve taken a comment by our resident draft coverage expert to extrapolate a number of players who may be available.  Select one.  If you think someone else may be available who you would have more interest in selecting, elaborate in the comments section.

Thank you, Hinkie.

 

39 thoughts on “Pick 1-15, Who Do You Select?

    1. MLB ranks him at 31…so the Phillies would be taking a slight gamble going for him 16 slots earlier than his ranking.
      With a mid-90s plus FB and excellent slider he has the basic arsenal, though he will need to improve a change-up pitch if he intends on getting lefties out.
      The MLB staff does not rate him plus overall however…just average.:
      FB-60…SLDR-55…CB-45…CH.UP-45…CONT-50…OVERALL-50
      I think Matt K may pass on him.

  1. I see Klentak taking either Garrett….LHP Crochet or lefty bat CF Mitchell. I picked Mitchell since I doubt Crochet is on the board at 1-15.

  2. Thanks, 8mark.

    infrequent poster … for me, it comes down to 17 YO Bitsko (with the sky high ceiling) and 22 YO Jarvis (with the incredibly high floor). I’d be more than happy with Jarvis. For me, he’s got Aaron Nola-like movement on his pitches, and the fact that he’d come at a discount means the Phillies could overpay a high upside prep or JUCO player(s) later. But … at the end of the day … I voted for Bitsko because the Phillies always play it more safe. I don’t want to see the Phils drafting boom or bust prospects every year, but I am in favor of them doing it once in a while.

    And … Kiley McDaniel released his updated draft rankings (top 150) today.

    1. Spencer Torkelson
    2. Austin Martin
    3. Asa Lacy
    4. Nick Gonzales
    5. Zac Veen
    6. Robert Hassell
    7. Emerson Hancock
    8. Max Meyer
    9. Heston Kjerstad
    10. Tyler Soderstrom
    11. Patrick Bailey
    12. Reid Detmers
    13. Austin Hendrick
    14. Mick Abel
    15. Nick Bitsko
    16. Garrett Crochet
    17. Dillon Dingler
    18. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    19. Justin Foscue
    20. Garrett Mitchell
    21. Bryce Jarvis
    22. Clayton Beeter
    23. Cole Wilcox
    24. Cade Cavalli
    25. Jordan Westburg

    30. Slade Cecconi

    1. Used to be Law and Kiley McDaniel got (and shared) a lot of the same info. That hasn’t been the case lately. A couple of months ago, McDaniel reported the draft would probably only be five rounds. Law pushed back on that. More recently (like this week), McDaniel (for the second time) mentioned the Phillies as one of the teams with the strongest interest in Nick Bitsko. This morning, Law throws cold water on that. He says, “The Phillies seem open to any player type except high school pitching.”

      Law also has:

      14. Texas Rangers … Nick Bitsko
      16. Chicago Cubs … Garrett Mitchell
      19. New York Mets … Austin Hendrick
      24. Tampa Rays … Bryce Jarvis

      * not sure if he just forgot to include Garrett Crochet, or he feels the LHP won’t go in round one.

      1. That is rather strange that he does not have Crochet in there somewhere.
        But every year KLaw will have one player as an outlier of sorts.

        Something I find interesting when comparing HS pitchers to college pitchers.
        Over the last 5/7 years, the lefthanders from HS do seem to be progressing thru club’s minor league development systems better than the college LHPs.
        Maybe I am wrong on that…..but I look at arms like Gore, Luzardo, Hall and Liberatore and they have come along really fast.
        I still think Puk, Lynch and Lodolo have legit futures, but I am surprised by the ascension of the HS lefties.
        And cannot explain it.

  3. No, matt. Jarvis is the safer pick. He’s a 22 YO thrower who put up spectacular numbers for Duke this (truncated) season: 27 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 40 K, including a perfect game. Bitsko is just 17 YO, and hasn’t had the chance to be heavily scouted (because he was originally a 2021 prospect). But … Bitsko’s Rapsado #’s are off the charts.

    1. I agree with Law on the point of the Phillies having no intent (although they may have interest in Bitsko’s profile) on selecting a HS arm, or bat for that matter. I do believe (as someone suggested yesterday) that they may pump him up as a local gem to lure a team ahead of them in the draft to take him and free up a college player they would prefer. Proximity to the Show is a huge factor here, especially for Klentak and Co. Even Middleton may approve of getting the best college player available at 1-15.

      1. GM is approaching his Phillies shelf life….a college arm could extend that shelf life a little longer if he get to the Bank tout suite. Do not see a HS arm helping the GM out for another 3 or 4 years.

  4. I understand. I was just wondering why you think the Phils, by playing it safe, would take Bitsko? I think the safer move for them is Jarvis. Or did I read your post incorrectly? I like both Pitchers

  5. Re-reading your post, Hinkie, I think you meant that since the Phils always play it more safe, you wanted them not to this time, and so picked Bitsko. I did read it incorrectly.

  6. Jonathan Mayo put out another mock draft last night.

    15. Phillies: Tyler Soderstrom … The next wave of bats starts coming into play here, with UCLA’s Garrett Mitchell on the college side and Hendrick on the high school side in consideration. Soderstrom is one of the best all-around high school bats in the country and could go higher than this.

    also …

    11. White Sox: Patrick Bailey
    13. Giants: Cade Cavalli
    14. Rangers: Garrett Crochet
    16. Cubs: Garrett Mitchell
    18. D-backs: Austin Hendrick
    19. Mets: Nick Bitsko
    21. Cardinals: Bryce Jarvis

      1. I have no idea what they’re going to do.
        I originally thought there was 0% chance they would take a HS pitcher because they just never do that, and it’s hard to imagine Matt Klentak veering from his MO (safe round one pick/college bat with proven track record) while in the last year of his contract. However, I think Kiley McDaniel is pretty clued in, and he has mentioned Bitsko with the Phillies twice.
        I guess we have to factor in Brian Barber. What kind of input is he going to have on that first round selection? I’ve asked Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen that question a few times during their chats. Neither has answered that inquiry.

        As far as Soderstrom goes … I’ve seen multiple mocks where he’s gone in that 1-9 to 1-15 area. For me, if I’m going to draft a sweet swinging LH hitting catcher who is probably not going to end up staying behind the plate (for defensive reasons), I’d just choose Austin Wells. Wells is still only 20 YO, he’s slashed .357/.476/.560 during his two years at the Univ of Arizona, and totaled a .308/.389/.526 (7 HR’s) line with with a wood bat on the Cape last summer. On top of all that … Brian Barber has already done extensive homework on Wells. He was part of the NYY’s FO that scouted and drafted (but failed to sign) the kid out of HS in 2018.

          1. This video is exactly the type of stuff that props up a prospect but is meaningless. Yeah so he hits cage bombs against 30 mph front toss. So what? Doesn’t mean anything. Hitting is about so much more. Mostly ability to read pitches and only swing at strikes. Can’t tell that in a BP session.

        1. Yes I can see your points.
          If it is a catcher, then Wells would be the guy for me….he has the hit tool.
          And as to a pitcher…..prefer collegian , but Bitsko would be the first selection if it is a HSer.

          Side note…read an article recently that the life-expectancy for MLB GMs from 1950 thru 1995 was 5 years……the last 25 years, that number has risen to a notch below 7 years….though Cashman and Sabean, prior to 2017, have skewed it a bit upwards with their respective longevity with the Yankees and Giants.
          Have not found any data on how long a GM is employed with a team without any play-off appearances……Ruben had two upfront, then a 5 year drought and was not resigned in Oct 2015.

          So Matt K, though on an extension, could see the writing on the wall without a play-off appearance.

        2. I like Wells. I think they need to have their head examined if they draft a HS hitter who didn’t even have a senior year. Who cares how they look in BP. I go college pitcher or bat in that order.

  7. Corey Seidman explores the history of the 1-15 pick.

    Top 1-15 picks of all time:

    1. Chase Utley in 2000
    2. Jim Rice in 1971
    3. Chris Carpenter in 1993
    4. Richie Hebner in 1966
    5. Scott Kazmir in 2002
    6. Royce Clayton in 1988
    7. Stephen Drew in 2004
    Honorable mentions:
    Leon Durham (1976)
    Scott Garrelts (1979)
    Sean Newcomb (2014)
    Devin Mesoraco (2007)

    Think of the symmetry of the Phillies taking another UCLA bat (Garrett Mitchell) with the 1-15 pick 20 years after Chase Utley. BTW … I am neither endorsing nor denouncing Mitchell with the first round pick.

    1. After the top four…..a drop off for sure.
      Hard to believe the 15th pick in over 50 years has produced only 4 players with a 33rWAR or better for their career

  8. From Eric Longenhagen’s chat today:

    DJ
    What team(s) do you have the toughest time getting draft intel on?
    Eric A Longenhagen
    The teams mid round 1 who have new directors or GMs or who might be in the midst of a philosophical change. So, Philly, White Sox (new directors), Texas (sounds like analysts playing larger role), SF

    .

    This may be more evidence that anything can/might happen at 1-15 next week.

    1. That’s a good point, Hinkie. Also, we don’t know the relationship between Middleton and Klentak. As far as we know, perhaps Johnny Cigars has affirmed the GM that he’ll have a longer leash, for whatever reason…internal dynamics, scouting, development and analytics department changes, etc…

  9. 8mark, you may very well be right. But, I find it hard to believe that Middleton is not looking at a Playoff spot. Maybe this year, with all that is going on, there is a built in excuse for failing that mandate, but I would think Klentak, if we do not make the Playoffs in 2021, would be gone. So, I still see a SP, one that gets to the Majors fairly quickly, and Jarvis, with a lesser monetary demand, giving them the ability to make up for losing a 2d rd pick by overpaying a 3rd, would seem to be a logical choice. Just one opinion.

    1. matt13….Klentak’s original contract would have ended this October ….5 years.
      He got the extension prior to the 2019 season….a three-year contract extension, making him the GM thru the 2022 season.
      Because this season has been hi-jacked more or less by COVID-19….I think 2021 would be his make or break play-off season.
      if he does not make it next season, Middleton will probably move on…it would been 6 seasons with no play-off appearances.
      GMs rarely get to 7…especially in large markets….without play-off appearances.

      1. Romus … I completely forgot John Middleton secretly extended Matt Klentak (and Andy MacPhail) last year. Probably a case of PTSD after seeing Chaim Bloom slip through the Phillies fingers for the second time in five years. Thanks (or maybe not) for reminding me that Klentak is being paid for another three years. 😦

        1. Hinkie…….I really do think, Middleton could still let him go after 2021 if they miss out on the playoffs next year….I do not think paying the GM’s final year of the contract on the extension thru 2022, will be a detriment if Middleton decides it is time to move on….Gabe had one more year also and he let him go.
          Heck Matt K would have made it one year longer than Ruben did….ruben went 5 consecutive years without a play-off appearance….Matt K. would be six if he cannot do it this season or next.

  10. I would take Pete Crow-Armstrong — potential gold-glove who no-doubt-about-it sticks in center. He can hit, has a plus arm (has been clocked at 100 mph from the outfield), plus glove, and plus run (6.5 flat sixty). For a high school player, has a long track record — USA national teams for 18U twice (at ages 16 and 17), 15U, and 12U — and four-year starter for one of the top HS programs in the country (Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, and Max Fried). The Phans on here wouldn’t like the pick because because Mickey Moniak was a high school centerfielder from SoCal. Anyway, Jonathan Mayo’s latest mock has PCA going 12th, so he may very well be gone when the Phillies pick.

  11. Keith Law has PCA going 17th to the Red Sox, so he is in the right range for the Phillies. In his chat this week he said:

    David: Keith, looking forward to tomorrow’s list. Does Pete Crow-Armstrong project to develop enough power to make him an impact player? From what I’ve read, it seems that’s the element he’s missing from his game.
    Keith Law: He could be an impact player between his glove and his bat, but I don’t think he ends up with plus power.

  12. And this is from Baseball America’s chat yesterday:

    Matthew (Boston): Could you compare Ed Howard’s current and potential offensive tools to PCA? Which player would you take at…ohhh let’s say 17?

    Carlos Collazo: We have a 40 hit, 50 power, 50 run on Ed Howard and PCA 55 hit, 40 power, 60 run. I would rather have PCA’s bat at 17 as our rankings would suggest.

    1. MLB.com has PCA at 20…I am thinking one of these four… Cubs, Brewers, DBacks or Red Sox select him.
      mLB.com has him graded as:
      HT-55…POWR-40…Run-60…Arm-55…FIELD-60…OVERALL-50
      Close to the same grading in their draft years as Moniak, Haseley and Muzziotti (as an international FA)….and each has grown into their ratings in each category at their respective levels, except the Hit tool for Moniak, and he is showing progress in reaching that.
      I just do not see Matt Klentak making that choice at 15.

      1. i talk to someone,Philies, Had to be talked out of quitting over Klentak. The person who told me is a guy who is in the locker room and close to the Phillies, Middleton had to really go hard after two of the scouts to talk them out, the third i am told was a former phillies player who wanted to but loves the Organization .and decided to stay

        1. rocco…….I guess you have that in any and all organizations
          Not everyone likes their boss.
          I remember when they fired or he resigned, John Coppolella as the Atlanta GM for breach of MLB rules regarding the international player market and
          inappropriate international signings…basically cheating….he was not well liked by his subordinates and could be rude at times from what I read, but the Braves were becoming a good team with a solid minor league system, so they stuck with him….until he was caught in that MLB investigation and had to be let go..

  13. What is the consensus here between Hendrick and Mitchell? If I had to chose I’d pick Hendrick, because Western PA kids have a good recent track record (Kirilloff) and you can’t teach that bat speed.

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