306 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 27, 2018

  1. Here is a Machado deal I would make.

    Eflin (or any starter in AAA) + any prospect not named Sixto, Ortiz or Medina + an option to choose 2 players to be named later, IF we resign Manny in the offseason from the following list:
    – Medina
    – Nick Williams
    – Altherr
    – JP Crawford
    – Kingery
    – Jahlyn Ortiz
    – Haseley

    If we do not resign him, then they only get Eflin and any prospect not named Sixto, Ortiz or Medina. That’s it. But if we sign him then they get a haul. Sixto is untouchable under all scenarios. And yes, I would walk from a deal if that was a hard requirement from Baltimore.

    I would try really hard to resign him and be fine with giving up 2 from that list if we do.

    1. This works for me, if I”m Baltimore, because the easiest picks out of your list are Kingery and Haseley, IMO. The Orioles need and infield replacement for Machado. While Kingery projects for 2nd base, he has already shown his versatility around the infield. And Haseley is only one year removed from college baseball. I also pick up de los Santos from AAA.

      1. If I was Baltimore, I would take De Los Santos and Haseley. And then pull Kingery and Medina from that list if he signs with Philly. And that is a haul.

        1. How would it compare to the Cubs’ offer of ss Addison Russell, Ian Happ and RHP prospect Oscar De La Cruz?
          IMO, the Phillies would have to match or better any other team’s trade offers, outside the Yankees since Angelos will not trade with them.

            1. i realize you can do players to be named later, but ive never heard of conditional players to be named later based on the traded player re-signing. is that even possible?

            2. He is an 11WAR player at 24-years old. Granted defense is the majority of it, but he has offensive potential at his age Freddy really never had at 24. He already has 47HRs, and Freddy has a total of 54 with 1000 more PAs.

          1. Romus do you think Happ has more upside than either prospect Haseley or Kingery? Baltimore could get more out of yankees or Boston or cubs than we could give. They have better prospects. I just read that Boston might have to pay 90 percent tax. crazy. I don’t know if they could afford him ,but have the prospect is Atlanta. I just don’t see us beaten out the Cubs or Yankees if he hit free agency, even with more money.

            1. rocco…not sure about upside….but Happ is a MLB player…Haseley is still a prospect and Kingery is learning.
              I do not think Bostons has a farm system to lure Machado….and Yankees are not in play from what i have been reading …in a trade that is this season.
              Cubs, Dodgers and Braves have the farm and MLB players that could do it.
              Also White Sox, but do not see Manny even considering staying there long term.
              As free agent…..still trying to figure out how the Cubs pay for Machado’s contract and still stay under the lux tax threshold.
              Heyward, Darvish and Lester’s contracts are killers…then there will be Bryant coming up soon for arb possible long term implications..

          2. Oh romus sorry I forgot. Thank You for your service. Not many of you guys left from WW11.

            1. This is a salute to my father who fought, and survived, the Korean War as an Army staff sergeant in an artillery unit (and who performed reconnaissance missions on the enemy side of the famed Pork Chop Hill) and to my son, who is a first lieutenant in the army and will be headed to Korea this fall to head the exact same type of artillery unit in which his grandfather served, in the same country, almost 70 years later. I’m a proud Army dad. Go Army!

            2. Me may God bless every soldier who have served in our Military . My Dad WW 2 vet US Navy, my uncle Jim USS New Jersey. My 1st cousin US Marine corps Vietnam died in action. Everyone’s family members who served. May God bless you protect you . May be fine true peace so there aren’t any more wars.

    2. I’m not good with the “we’ll give you additional prospects if we re-sign Manny” addendum to your trade proposal. It’s interesting and pretty sure it’s never been done before. However, I’d be against punishing myself for signing MM as a FA.
      I’d love to have Manny this summer, but in reality, the Phillies aren’t winning the WS this year with or w/o Machado. I’d rather just wait until this winter and sign MM. That way, I’d lose no prospects (most likely not even a draft pick because he’ll almost certainly be dealt to someone soon).

      1. Exactly – these trade offers are insane!!!

        So, let’s unpack this.

        One way or another, if you get Manny Machado and keep him long term, you’re going to have to pay a huge amount of money. You will be paying him for the production you expect. So let’s say a WAR is worth $6 million. If you pay Manny $42 million a year (my guess is he signs for between $40-45 million a year), you are doing so with the expectation that he will be providing you with roughly 6-8 WAR a year which is a fair projection for him. Aaron Nola at $600,000 a year is a great deal. Manny Machado at $42 million a year may be a fair deal, but it’s not a great deal – there are no savings unless you think he’ll be a 10 WAR player (possible, but not likely).

        Any added money or prospects you pay results in roughly a net loss for him because, in that contract, you are already paying what he worth for that production.
        If any of the prospects in the trades people propose start generating value above their projected salaries, then the trade becomes a net loss and some of these packages involve excellent prospects who, in total, are likely going to yield far more value than they will cost. But it’s not just the lost value, it’s the ability to manage a competitive payroll long term. The Phillies project to take on large salaries on the whole around 2020 or 2021 – at that time they will need to start blending in lower cost players to create a dynasty. If you make the Machado trade, the players you need to sustain that model won’t be there.

        I’m not saying I would not trade a decent player or two to get Machado, but some of the trades proposed here would likely cripple the organization 3 or 4 years down the line which is ridiculous if you can just sign the player and give up a first round pick. To me, this makes no sense.

      2. “This is a salute to my father who fought, and survived, the Korean War as an Army staff sergeant in an artillery unit (and who performed reconnaissance missions on the enemy side of the famed Pork Chop Hill) and to my son, who is a first lieutenant in the army and will be headed to Korea this fall to head the exact same type of artillery unit in which his grandfather served, in the same country, almost 70 years later. I’m a proud Army dad. Go Army!”

        I’m in Annapolis so “Go Army!” is hard for me to say but my best wishes to you and your family,in recognition of their service and the service they continue to provide.

      3. Agree. It makes no sense to me to give up good prospects to get Manny for 1/2 of the year with no guarantees to sign him long term.

  2. Too funny, but for some reason I woke up thinking about what a Machado trade would like and came up with almost the same result: Medina, De Los Santos, and Haseley contingent upon giving the Phillies a short window of time to complete a long-term deal. I would also consider replacing Haseley with JPC or Kingery to get the deal done and throw in a Lively or Eflin, again contingent on a long term deal.

    Unfortunately, getting a window to negotiate a long-term deal probably means we have to negotiate early and potentially overpay with salary and in trade to make it an offer that makes both Baltimore forego waiting until the July deadline and Machado waiting until off season free agency. That seems like a tough needle to thread. The closer we get to the trade deadline, the less likely we have the time or ability to negotiate a long-term deal.

    I do not think the Phillies should get into a bidding war for 3 months of Machado. I would rather wait until the offseason. If we are still competitive at the July break, I would rather see us go after a back-up defense-first catcher and a rental RF bat. And selfishly, I wouldn’t mind inquiring into a Cole Hamels rental, although his trade value may outstrip the Phillies need at SP if Eickhoff returns after the break or if we want to continue to use the #5 slot to develop younger talent.

    1. I like a offense catcher, a right fielder or shortstop who can hit. Right now this offense is so bad. We will start dropping out of contention in a hurry. Unless Sheldon brings in a bat to help.

    2. I work from the premise that Baltimore has the means to re-sign Machado and certainly the will. I expect Machado to be offered on a full scale auction in which as many as 9 teams would be active. While whether Machado would readily extend his contract with the O’s, the organization under Peter Angelos would be willing to take Machado off the market if he didn’t like the offers. A trade stalemate, while not advantageous to Baltimore, is entirely possible.

      A ready trade partner is a team that can return a shortstop who is up for free agency, so that a team is not sacrificing team control at a critical position. That’s why I’m not sleeping on the Astros’ chance, who could offer 2B/SS/3B/1B/LF Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez could easily be re-signed in Baltimore. Other pieces moving to Charm City could be OF Kyle Tucker and P J.B. Bukauskas, both ranked in the top 100 prospects. The Astros would move 3B Alex Bregman to LF for Gonzalez and install Machado at 3B, admittedly not his preferred position. Bregman has some OF experience.

      Houston was bold in going after Justin Verlander last year and would maximize the.value of that investment (Verlander’s contract expires after the 2019 season) by doubling down on Machado. I think preempting Manny’s free agency could cost the Astros, or any team, a 10 year, $330 M contract. Otherwise he tests the waters.

      The Phils’ best chance stems from an ability to free Baltimore of additional salary and receive players who would otherwise be marginalized in Baltimore by the mid-season pressure of adding players to the O’s 40 man roster if a 5 for 1 deal for Machado were made.

      With all that, and taking into account Oriole priorities and Philly needs to have something to show if Machado can’t be inked to a long term pact,, a blockbuster results:

      to the Orioles – P Sixto Sanchez, SS J.P. Crawford, 3B Mitch Walding, OF Adam Haseley, and OF Roman Quinn

      to the Phils – SS Manny Machado, P Zach Britton, P Chris Lee, C Caleb Joseph, and OF Austin Hays

      To some here it will seem an over pay. But anything less than overpay will probably result in Machado not being moved. This trade would be absolutely hated by a significant part of the Oriole fan base since it offers nothing in the way of name recognition in connection with the players coming to Baltimore; this for a fan icon plus the highly-regarded Britton.

      1. Fighterflea … you do realize Manny Machado and Zach Britton are going to be FA’s in a few months and can be signed for no prospects ? If yes … you’re still willing to give up Sixto Sanchez, JP Crawford, Roman Quinn, and Adam Hasely ?
        Also … why would the O’s want to trade their best prospect (Hayes) ? They’ll be looking to rebuild by trading MM.

        1. The only thing you give me to respond to is Hayes. He’s not raking at AA Bowie but you have a point. Swap out Hays for OF Anthony Santander.

          Yes, obviously I know today is Monday and Machado, Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach are on the clock.

          I didn’t say I thought Machado would end up in Philly by trade. But in a discussion on that topic, I offered what I thought it would take. Living in MD, I’m on Baltimore sports radio a fair amount as I travel and fan sentiment is miles apart from what I read here. This site covets prospects, which is understandable.

          Any discussion on acquiring Machado soon challenges the timeline for the Phils’ movement towards team status as year-on-year contenders. That’s the fundamental tension at play here. Do you sabotage the rebuild for Machado? Do you make Philly a more desirable destination for Trout and other free agents down the road by signing Manny? Do you increase your prospects for signing Manny long term by acquiring him and negotiate in an exclusive time window to preempt his free agency?

          1. Fighterflea … I enjoy reading your posts. You bring a lot to the discussions on here. However (maybe because you live in Baltimore), I think you are expecting more than I think the O’s are going to get for a ten week rental of MM. If Angelos and DD had traded Machado last summer (which would have been the smart move), they could have expected the returns that you posted above. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the Phillies aren’t winning the WS this year with or w/o Machado. It would be better for them to wait until after this season to sign him as a FA instead of giving up Sixto Sanchez. IMO … if the Orioles can get that Cubs offer of Addison Russell, Ian Happ and Oscar De La Cruz Romus mentioned, I’d jump at that. I think the Cardinals and DBacks could be interesting trade partners also.

    3. JimV … as Romus can tell you … there is absolutely no way Manny Machado is going to agree to a sign and trade deal (with any team) no matter how long this window that everyone wants to negotiate a LTC remains open.

    1. Eickhoff is probably facing a surgery if he continues to experience the numbness…perhaps TOS or ulnar nerve transposition surgery. If it is either, he is done for this season. Crawford and Neshek…have no idea.

      1. roccom – Hunter and Neris aren’t going anywhere. Neris may be a deadline trade, but Hunter is signed for another year. I disagree with how both pitchers were used yesterday. They need to be put in low leverage situaions until they regain their form. Kapler’s stubbornness also has me concerned. For god’s sake get Hoskins out of the 2-hole, and bat Herrera in his place. We once criticized Mike Schmidt for “thinking too much” at the plate. Hoskins is in the same boat. I’m still 100% convinced that Hoskins is the most important core member of this team moving forward. He’ll be fine.

        1. Wawa,,,agree with you on Hoskins.
          Needs to be back as the clean-up hitter…only to see if it will work again for him.
          141/287/.282,…as a two- hole guy
          303/449/.515…..as a the clean-up hitter

  3. Hinkie (or anyone else who knows), has Baltimore already traded their comp balance pick(s)? If not, let’s grab one if we deal for Manny.

    1. 8mark … now we’re talking !!! The problem with that, though … the trade would have to made in the next two weeks, and it looks like Baltimore wants to wait until closer to the deadline to deal Machado.
      But … keep on thinking of ways for Klentak to nab a competitive balance draft pick. It’s a really deep draft and we have no 2nd or 3rd round pick. It’s killing me Klentak didn’t do more to beat AJ Preller for the Twins comp B pick (#74 overall) yesterday.

      1. Actually they have only 8 days to make that deal, Hinkie. Day 2 of the draft is next Tuesday. Somebody suggested the O’s GM Duquette said they would see where things are around Memorial Day. These times are converging as we speak. We need an offensive upgrade and sooner than later if we’re to stay in the playoff race. Even Cesar’s average is dropping now.

        1. Oh … wow … you’re right. For some reason, I was thinking the draft was two weeks away.

  4. These Machado trade offers are making me sick.

    I don’t think I’d do any of the trades proposed. The Phillies are much better off waiting, not dumping their future cost-controlled assets and just spending money and losing a first round pick.

    Most of the trades proposed above are unnecessary and would gut the organization of the cheap talent flow it will need to continue a dynasty.

    Fortunately, the new Phillies’ regime is much more careful than the posters on this site.

    1. Everybody’s got to hate something. I personally hate the time suck involved in the annual rating of the Phils’ top 30 prospects on this site. “I think he should be #8.” “No, he’s clearly #11.”

      To each his own.

      1. I don’t hate trade talk per se – I hate what people are generally proposing; I think it’s foolish.

        1. I hate when Klentak sits on his hands while other teams are doing the very thing he needs to do more than any other club since he has NO pick between #3 and #107.

          1. 8mark….agree.
            Matty K can be more aggressive IMO.
            Why horde a stable of #4 and $5 pitchers with some possibilities for a higher ceiling to maybe a #3….but will have to have ample opportunity to do that and the opportunity will not be variable to them in Philly..

    2. Here is the argument for trading a reasonable package for Machado now:
      1. He is an MVP caliber talent that can help the Phils make the playoffs now
      2. Having him for a half of the season in the clubhouse, and winning, gives us an advantage to re-sign him, assuming we are willing to match any offer anyways.
      3. If you have no advantage, then you would have to pay 20%+ more on the market to win a bidding war with the other major cities. As much as we love Philly, it is not as much of an attraction as LA or NYC or even Chicago. That extra 20% at these numbers is a really big dollar amount. Those funds can be put somewhere else.
      3. In my trade scenario, we only give up a lot of we resign him. But, we would getting a 27 year old elite baseball player.

      The assumption that you are making “we can just sign him in the off-season” is based on pure conjecture. Why would he come here with no other connection? You think we will easily outbid the LA, NYC and Chicago teams? And even if so, there is a human element of this too. Building a relationship with the players and manager is important.

      1. “3. If you have no advantage, then you would have to pay 20%+ more on the market to win a bidding war with the other major cities. As much as we love Philly, it is not as much of an attraction as LA or NYC or even Chicago. That extra 20% at these numbers is a really big dollar amount. Those funds can be put somewhere else.”

        What ? I strongly disagree with this point.
        v1 … according to your post, if the Yankees offer Machado 40 million per year, the Phillies would have to promise him 48 million. Come on. That’s not even close to being accurate. IMO, he’s going to take the biggest contract … whether it’s offered by the Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, or even a team like the Cardinals. The Bryce Harper situation may be a little different. He may take a hair less from the Nationals to stay in Washington, but for every other team, it will be another all out bidding war.

        This is not like a Mike Trout situation where he (and his wife) is (are) from (and owns a home in) South Jersey, and owns Eagles season tickets. Manny Machado is from Miami. The Marlins are obviously not going to be a player for him this winter. He does have a connection to Cleveland right now because his brother in law (Yonder Alonso) plays for the Indians. However, I don’t think the Indians have the financial capacities to sign MM. If anything, the Phillies have Andy MacPhail, who drafted Manny out of HS. Not saying that is going to tip the scales in the Phillies favor; just saying it doesn’t hurt to have that relationship.
        Manny is going to be playing for the team who offers him the most money. The Phillies still have a ton of financial flexibility. They’ve been sitting on boatloads of money for the past few seasons waiting for this winter’s FA class. IMO, the Phillies are a near lock to sign one of Machado or Harper, and Machado makes the most sense.

      2. The assumption that getting him here gives us a bigger advantage to sign him is also pure conjecture.

        I don’t give a lot of weight to the argument that players are only looking to go to LA, Boston or NYC, especially when the Phillies are in the mix.

        If this were true, then huge FAs wouldn’t end up in places like Arizona (Greinke), or Washington (Scherzer) or Seattle (Cano) or, hey Philadelphia (Lee). I think there is a small sub-set of players who want to be in the NYC/LA type of market, and an equally small sub-set who definitely don’t want to be in a pressure cooker market. Aside from that, I think the player cares most about the financial deal and then secondarily the team’s culture and future prospects. I think the Phillies do well on these counts as they are in a traditional big, east coast market, they are young and competitive and they have more money to spend than anyone else. They are set up as well for free agency as any team now or in the past 15 years or so.

        So, while I agree that it’s foolish to assume any particular ballplayer will sign here (a few folks seem confident that, no matter what, Machado will be here – give me, a break, you don’t know that!!!), I don’t think it’s foolish at all to assume that one of the big ticket FAs will likely land here – in fact, I think there’s a high probability of that happening (like 75 or 80%). People just have to stop being married to a particular player because we’re not sure now who that will be.

        1. My guess….Phillies have a better shot at luring and signing Josh Donaldson than Machado.

          1. Donaldson will make a great fallback/cheaper option for some team. I’m thinking the Cardinals.

            1. I like Donaldson a lot but at this stage of his career he is an injury waiting to happen. Pass. Especially for the money he’ll command.

            2. Atlanta is another logical landing spot for Donaldson with Alex Anthopoulus as their new GM.

  5. I really hope they get Machado as a playoff run would be great to see but I wouldn’t give up too much to rent him for a couple months. That said I would like to see the phils take on a bad contract to eat to get the price down. Give up several lesser prospects in a quality vs quantity type deal. If it doesn’t work out, you open up some spots for the rule 5 in december. Wishful thinking I guess but would be interesting to see what it would cost to acquire Machado if we say took on Trumbo and Davis. Yea it’s a lot of money to eat but boston and LA don’t have a problem doing it and hopefully it would mean we could keep guys like Medina, Haseley, Kingery.

  6. I don’t think the FO is an a rush to trade for anyone this season. The past few years they were very patient with the young pitchers and I think they will take the same approach with Hoskins, Alfaro, Williams, Kingery and JPC. None of them have played a full season in the bigs yet. Opposing pitchers have adjusted to them, I think the FO will give each guy a chance to either succeed or fail this year.

    Especially if the feeling around the league is that Machado will take the highest value contract in FA. Perhaps Middleton isn’t BSing when he says that he is willing to spend money on big name FAs.

    1. I could see them being very patient, just hate to waste a year when the young arms of Nola, Pivetta, VV, Eflin, SD, Arano, Ramos, all doing so well. Then again maybe they don’t all keep it up. Just that the hitting is been so spotty and Machado would do wonders to that lineup. He could get to see what playing for a winning team in philly will do, get to know the players well. Plus I worry the braves have outtanked us and now are in better shape so the only way we get the upper hand is to use our financial muscles and get creative.

      But if not, if they miss out on Machado, hopefully they have a plan B cause it’s going to be hard to beat the braves now and in the future.

    2. The mistake everyone is making is the assumption that there will be a clear “highest value contract.” Every team knows how to value a WAR. Everyone basically has the same WAR projection for him. My guess is there are going to be several contract offers that are all within the same vicinity. And the teams will have to sell themselves to him. Which is the strongest argument to get him this season.

      1. It’s not the teams it’s Machado he’s not going to sign a new deal until FA. He can simply state I’m going into FA . Then what no trade market or a rental one . He’s going to cash in .

      2. Nearly all MLB players want to make the most money they can get. That means they overwhelmingly sign the “highest value contract”. Look at Jake Arrieta. Do you think he loved his time in Chicago? Do you think he loved playing with Lester, Rizzo, Bryant, Zobrist and the rest of those Cubs he won a WS with? Yes. He absolutely love his time with the Cubs. But … in the end … he did what? He signed the “highest value contract”. It’s going to be no different for Manny Machado (and Brayce Harper).
        Seriously … you are acting like the Phillies are the pariah of MLB. You’re acting like John Middleton is Marge Schott. The Phillies actually have a very good reputation for taking care of their players (under this regime). If they offer Manny Machado the best contract, he will come !

        1. My point is if the money is equal. He might want to go to a proven winner Only positive is to me. if he came here its his team. he would be the leader.

          1. The money won’t be equal. It’s going to be a bidding war. Lozano and Boras will play the “Can you beat this?” game with all the teams bidding on their clients (MM & Harper). When there are no more teams who can answer “yes” to that question, Machado and Harper will sign their new, record breaking contracts.

            1. Hinkie….but what if, Harper resigns with the Nats?
              Then that bidding war is out the window.

            2. And the Phillies with all of Middleton’s Fort Knox should have no reason to at least outbid dollar wise for one of either Machado or Harper. If they don’t (as things now stand), then 2019 would be a difficult sell to this fan base.

            3. Romus, the Nats will be bidding against every other team in play whether he re-signs with DC or not. I highly doubt he will extend his deal during this season.

            4. Romus … I did mention in an earlier post above the Harper situation is a little bit different than the Machado case. It’s possible that Harper could take a tiny hometown discount to stay with the Nationals. However, he won’t take that tiny discount in season. He (like MM) is 100% testing the market this winter. Otherwise, he’ll have no way of knowing what a tiny discount actually amounts to.

            5. Rizzo and Boras are almost kin.
              My money is that they work something out prior to November.
              Ted Lerner and the crew will probably come on in a bigger way, as opposed to his neighbor the Angelos’.

            6. Romus …

              I’m exasperated. I don’t think I can go down this road with you again.
              Machado and Harper are so close to free agency, they can actually smell it … maybe even taste it. Neither one of them is going to give that up.

  7. I’m not willing to trade top talents for the rental of Machado, but then I firmly believe that the team that rents him will have an insignificant advantage in signing him as a FA. The FA bidding will rise from $350MM/10 making cheap talent coming up from the farm absolutely essential in balancing the cost of his salary. De Los Santos is definitely off the table for me. I see him as a key part of our future rotation and pitching in Philly this season.

  8. Adonis Medina seems to be struggling at Lakewood. Nice 4-2 record but ERA is almost 6.00 (5.97). Only going 4.2IP per start. Batters hitting .275 against him. Whip is 1.53.

    Under the radar is Reading RH reliever Edgar Garcia. 21 yrs old. 3-1 with 0.66 ERA and 4 saves. Batters hitting .129 against him. 33K’s in 27.1 IP. A little too many BB’s (14).

  9. To varying degrees, I can see Houston, the Yanks, Bosox, Dodgers, D-backs, Cubs, Cardinals, Phils and Braves in on the Machado discussions. Others have raised the Brewers, even the Indians. In any case, at a minimum that sweep includes 5 division races. The Orioles figure to let teams in those discussions know what they’re getting in the way of offers from division rivals. So in July if the Phils are head-to-head with the Braves in the standings, they’re likely to know how seriously the Braves are ‘in’ on Manny. And, yes, I do think that puts a little pressure on a GM like Klentak. The accumulation of that pressure should make for very interesting trade talks and no small return on Machado. Comparisons with J.D. Martinez a year ago I find inapposite.

  10. For those of you who are sure that Klentak is sitting on his hands and doing nothing, can I ask where you’re getting your information? We don’t know that, and to assume is just wrong.

    1. Wawa……granted the phone lines are always lit up……but he has not answered the call yet.
      …….have you seen any transactions for any draft picks/int’l money/trades?
      Other than the Dec 2015 Velaquez trade and Freddy’s deal last Dec….the majority of all, mind you not all, movement has been for fungible relievers or utility players..
      And so far this season the best relievers are coming up thru the farm.
      Last year, Neshek was a ‘ jack-pot’ hit for him.

      Look at the top 30 international players for the last five years…..Phillies sign one, maybe two in a good year. Other large market teams, who were not under the penalty, sign 4 or 5.
      .

    2. Well … just yesterday, Klentak let AJ Preller outbid him for a competitive balance draft pick. Preller and the Padres basically paid between 6 and 7 million dollars for the #74 overall pick (and the roughly 800 thousand slot dollars it comes with). Meanwhile Klentak still sits with no draft picks between #3 and #107 in what is considered one of the deepest drafts in some time. Unacceptable to let the SD Padres outspend you for a draft pick, IMO.

      1. That said … I am very confident Klentak already has a couple/few deals lined up to send excess Phillies prospects to other teams for extra J2 dollars. Those deals will be announced on July 3rd so the international money can be spent on Starlyn Castillo and the rest of the next J2 class.

        1. Your thoughts on this deal. Say the Orioles really want Brady Singer, and he’s available at #3. Do you trade the #3 pick Kilome, and Crawford for Machado?

          1. Under current MLB rules, regular draft picks and draft picks awarded as free agent compensation cannot be traded. Like many others, I think this is stupid of MLB. Anyway, only competitive balance draft picks can be traded per current MLB rules.

  11. Hinkie. you ever hear the song. DREAM ON. that is what your doing. Sheldon is going to do nothing this year. hope I am wrong but really think he waits to long to do things.

    1. rocco … trust me. The Phillies will announce a deal/multiple deals on July 3rd that will net the team extra J2 dollars.

      Wawa Mike … MLB only allows competitive balance draft picks to be traded. It’s ridiculous all picks can’t be traded. Hopefully, the league changes that sometime soon. However, if the Phillies were allowed to trade their 1-3 pick, I would not package it with Crawford and Kilome for a ten week rental of Manny Machado. The team would be better off waiting until this winter and signing Machado for just (a lot of) money and no prospects. They could, instead, use those prospects to maybe acquire a pitcher with some team control this off-season.

      1. Hinkie, MLBTR posted a piece/survey today regarding the trading of draft picks. One MLB exec said he doesn’t know of anyone who wouldn’t want that rule CV changed. Maybe next CBA…???

  12. roccom – Do we get to tease you without mercy if Klentak lands a big fish at, or before the deadline? Will hat or crow eating be involved?

  13. I was looking at the payrolls of the Red Sox ($233M) and Yankees ($166M). The Red Sox are paying $35M in tax on top of that number. Before FA, my guess for the 2019 payrolls are $140M for the Yankees and $180M for the Red Sox. That means that both teams can afford 1 mega contract (Machado/Harper). Yes, the Yankees will likely have to go into the luxury tax. The Red Sox are already in it so I don’t think they will have a problem paying it again. I don’t think the Phillies are getting Machado or Harper.

    1. I think everyone on his board is overvaluing our chance to “just sign him in the off-season.” Why would he come here? Why not other great teams in major cities who can all bid an insane amount?

      1. I agree with much of what v1 suggests. I don’t think the contingency trade offer would be on the table however. Both sides have reasonable arguments in the Machado debate.

        Me? I offer Franco and 2 prospects ranging in the 10-20 ranks. Risk? Some. But there’s no deal without some pain. Rival teams have incentive to offer just as much if not more. I agree that acquiring him NOW does increase our chances of re-signing him in the off season. The same for any big market, contending club.

        1. Hinkie right there’s no history of a player of Machado magnitude signing before FA.look at JD Martinez last yr Zona trade for him as a rental. He went to Boston big money.

        2. I believe with every free agent its money, chance to win and if its close ,then family, look at redick he took one year, at great money, but one thing that sold him was his wife could live near her sister in new York. He commutes to philly. That plays a part too. all I know is if I am a free agent and its the cubs, yankees, boston, philly. offering the same money. I go yankees, They are a great market for players

    1. Even though he’s not particularly hot, Cesar has a .371 OBP, which is very good. In other words, as I’ve always said, he’s really good even if he’s not particularly hot right now.

      1. Carch what your not looking at is Kingery. who according to many on here is the next ty cobb. so whatever Cesar does isn’t good enough

        1. I’m looking at Kingery. I still think he’s the better player long term, but it’s not a guarantee and his presence takes nothing away from Cesar.

  14. Looking at some minor league scores today and I see that Red Sox draftee (#7 in 2013) Trey Ball currently has a 6.66 ERA. Suffice it to say, he’s not making to the show anytime soon.

  15. I love baseball reference. You can actually search all the first round picks of a franchise. So I remember we had a discussion about how the Red Sox are drafting well in the first round. So a quick search later of picks after 2000 and here’s what I found:

    2015 #7 Benintendi: 4.1 WAR
    2011 #40 Bradley Jr.: 10.8 WAR
    2006 #28 Bard: 4.1 WAR
    2005 #23 Ellsbury: 21.3 WAR as a Red Sox
    2005 #42 Buchholtz: 15.5 WAR as a Red Sox

    Now the Phillies:
    2014 #7 Nola: 8.5 WAR
    2002 #17 Hamels: 42.2 WAR as a Phillie
    2000 #15 Utley: 61.8 WAR as a Phillie

    I don’t think the Red Sox are drafting that well in the first round. The Red Sox have drafted better in the later rounds. Notables include: Mookie Betts (2011 5th round) has 28.4 WAR. Pedroia (2004 2nd round) has 52.1 WAR. Lester (2002 2nd round) has 30.4 WAR. Youkilis (2001 8th round) has 31.3 WAR.

  16. While the bullpen has done pretty well, I have little confidence in Neris, Garcia or Hunter in close games.

  17. Not happy about the loss tonight. Need to find somebody in the bullpen who is consistent, aside from Seranthony

  18. This is painful to type, but I honestly believe best thing for this team is to lose some games this week to take pressure off making a move for Machado. I just don’t see pitching as sustainable for team for entire year as the hitting (outside of Herrera) has been difficult to watch.

    1. With the way the team has been hitting and how tough their June schedule is, they shouldn’t have a problem losing games. Although I don’t know if that takes pressure off management to do something or adds to it.

  19. As impressive as VV was last night, he and Seranthony would be quite a tandem in an otherwise unreliable bullpen. Velasquez’s pitch counts are simply too high. Plus we have some SP depth (ala De Los Santos) in the wings. I would rather have an effective VV available from innings 6 thru 8 and he can pitch multiple (as in 2+) innings. This isn’t likely to develop but that’s my take on what should happen moving forward.

    As for the offense, Rhys’ facial injury shouldn’t keep him out long but he definitely needs to sit and regroup. And as much as I dream on Altherr’s athleticism (and Williams seems to have found his role off the bench as Del Unser 2.0), it’s time to consider the future of RF. Alfaro and Kingery are simply experiencing growing pains on their first full big league seasons. And Cesar is trending south, perhaps it’s just a slump. Let’s hope.

  20. omg again with Cesar. I think your right. 368 obp. 7 hr. Takes a lot of pitches to work the count. he stinks. You can watch Kingery and tell he is going to be okay. Swinging at pitches a foot outside. doesn’t show great defense. Alfaro cant hit, great defense, I only hope he can learn to walk a little more and hit some homeruns. Do you watch him bat. Next time watch how many fastballs he misses. or fouls off to right side, means he is late.

        1. Okay, sorry, I read your comments incorrectly. You were being sarcastic – I get it.

          Every professional sports team has a whipping boy – Odubel and Cesar are ours even though they happen to be the two best position players on the team now.

          1. By the way, I want to apologize for using the term “whipping boy” as I just read my own comments and it really didn’t look good. It’s been used for a long time and, for my use, there was no racial/ethnic intent behind it, but with our evolving culture, I think it’s now a racially and ethnically insensitive term (connotes slavery) and I apologize and won’t use it again.

            1. As I said, it definitely wasn’t meant as such in any way at all, and I am very sorry for having used that now outdated reference.

            2. Roccom and Romus – are you guys buddies in real life? It sure sounds like that.

            3. catch … maybe you missed it. It was discovered a few months back, rocco and Romus are actually former 1970’s TV personalities The Smothers Brothers. Tommy (who now goes by rocco) and Dickie (today known as Romus) were outed by another family member right after the new year.

            4. I thought they were the voices of the 2 geezers in the balcony on the Muppets show back in the 80s. Can’t think of their names….anyone?

  21. For those who are still questioning whether Matt Klentak struck out when it came to acquiring the competitive balance pick the Twins were shopping …

    1. Law’s tweet was in response to this:

      1. 6 days, Hinkie. Which teams still have a comp balance pick to trade? Somebody hold a mirror under Klentak’s nose to make sure he’s breathing.

  22. At the risk of piling on and in case any of you care I’m out on trading for MM this year. Enyel is my guy I won’t trade him. I think he should be in the rotation now or as soon as MK clears some space on the 40 Man.

    I’m not up in arms that we don’t have a draft pick between 3 and 107 this year.

    The team has been pretty impressive considering what most of us were saying they would do record wise in Feb.

    I still am not a Kapler fan and probably won’t be but I’ll give him some credit for being flexible and having a willingness to adapt to his players.

    I’m enjoying the season right now and I’m enjoying watching this group of guys play and show marked improvement.

    I purchased a few games which I hadn’t done in years and will attend my first Iron Pigs game on the 16th.

    1. DMAR……Enyel De Los Santos…his breaking balls….either curve or slider are still a work in progress. According to Joe Jordan maybe not yet ready for prime time.
      He does however, have both a MLB plus FB and change-up.
      So he meets the Meatloaf Factor…2 out of 3 ain’t bad.

    2. DMAR … I felt that Kapler lied to us when he mapped out his stategy of giving equal playing time to four outfielders.
      The MM debate – In Klentak I trust.
      I’m enjoying this season too, and I won’t give up until the math tells me to.

      1. “and I won’t give up until the ‘math’ tells me to.”…….you do mean analytics, right?

        1. Wawa mike. I think its the nitrates in the lunch meat in your wawa hoagies. Give up its over The nitrates are making you not think straight. They cant hit

          1. rocco…lol………there ain’t no WaWas in Vegas.
            He will have to import the hoagies

  23. Florimon to DL with a broken foot.
    Crawford is on rehab assignment.
    Who takes Flo’s place?

      1. Absolutely. Now Valentin can get some of the reps that Pedro was getting. To Pedro’s credit he’s made himself into a nice little player. I don’t think it’s a mirage or a SSS.

    1. If it’s not Crawford, then they will have to add (and therefore subtract) somebody to the 40man roster. My guess is JP gets called back early from his rehab.

  24. Arrieta…pitches to contact.

    “Everybody likes strikeouts, which is great,” Arrieta said. “But outs are most important. It doesn’t matter how they come. I have seven guys behind me. I’m not going to pitch away from contact. I could strike more guys out if I threw more four-seamers and threw more breaking stuff, but why do that if I could throw more efficient innings with less pitches?
    “I pitch to contact and get a punch-out when I need it. I’m trying to get 27 outs and if I can’t do that, I’m trying to get as close as I can.”

    1. I’ve been impressed with Arrieta. His fastball has clearly declined, but Arrieta has the stuff to get a strikeout if he wants to. He doesn’t throw anything straight, and it’s miracle that he doesn’t walk more guys. He’s worth the money.

      1. A pitcher like Arrieta seems to be able to pitch-to-contact well…maybe some because he has the experience and other quality pitches that he can adequately command.
        Some of the younger guys when they have tried that philosophy of pitching, have had some issues.

        1. Arrieta is the rare pitcher who can do this and be more effective. He does it because he throws 4 or 5 pitches with above average velocity (on the FB), plus movement and plus command. Like Nola, he’s an outlier. Guys like VV and Pivetta really can’t pitch like that.

        2. While the velocity is down, Arrieta can still provide movement and command his FB well so he can see success in that strategy.

          agree with catch that Pivetta and Vinny (and possible Eflin) can’t generate the same movement and command as Arrieta (or someone like Nola) to enjoy success while pitching to contact. Lively will not enjoy success too since his stuff is average across the board.

          Maybe Taveras can learn how to pitch to contact. His secondary is good and he knows how to throw for strikes.

  25. Arrieta has been terrific, and the team just won its 30th game. SP has way out performed my expectations. Last year # 30 came after the All Stat break. I have to give them credit. They bounced back after a terrible loss the night before, and have done that all season. So, credit where it is due. Kap has to have a positive influence in that Clubhouse.

    1. On pace for 93 wins….just get thru June with no worst than a 14-13 record and they should hit the hi80s/low90s win mark.

      1. They are a young team, so it’s hard to project where they will be in mid-September. That said, any team with Nola, Arrieta and now Pivetta in the rotation, a solid bullpen with a future star closer (Dominguez) and lots of arms coming up and hanging around (including VV, Eflin, Lively, and De Los Santos) – should be competitive. If they really start to hit – which could happen – watch out. I predict they will acquire a corner outfielder and another BP arm for a stretch run and make it a lot of fun.

        1. The pitching instruction has, I assume, been superb. A whole group of pitchers has taken a big step forward.

  26. And, oh yeah, Cesar was on base 5 TIMES last night and stole base! People seem to omit positive facts when it relates to Cesar.

    1. He also bobbled the ball in what should have been a double play and only got a force out. Luckily Arrieta got out of the inning without a run.

      1. The other night I fell asleep. and didn’t see the famous Cesar dropped a popup. but because of the hate for him no one mention Franco error or the miss grounder by morgan I saw it on replay, other wise I would have thought only error was cesar. amazing. blind when it comes to this kid who really made himself a good player. Kingery is a pimp on this kids >>>

        1. @roccom – as Kobe Bryant said, we can enjoy one without tearing down one.

          Both Cesar and Kingery can be very good 2B. But the latter just fits better in the current Phillies timeline while the former is performing that it can yield a good amount of return.

      2. Yeah, sure, that negates getting base 5 times.

        And, by the way, Cesar is a plus 2.2 runs in fielding – he’s a well above average fielder, above average base runner, and very productive hitter. He’s top 25 among all position players, so, yeah, duh, he’s a top 10 second baseman.

  27. Like what I’m seeing in Franco line drives to center and right. Keep him in the 2 spot see what happens.

  28. It’s no longer a secret that Arrieta’s velocity is down, it’s good to know that Arrieta knows what to do about it. While i’m not a big fan of pitch to contact, Arrieta’s has the experience and savvy to enjoy success out of it.

    I remember Nola saying this before, it’s not about throwing heat because a good hitter will hit any FB. It’s all about changing speeds and set the hitter up with your best pitch for an out. We know that Nola is not a flame thrower but his secondaries (CB and CU) are one of the best in the leagues.

    1. You watch nola pitch ?? He has gotten better now that he can throw 95 or better, makes all his other pitches that much better. Million times I will say it righthanders in 90 percent of the time have to be able to keep batters honest with there fastball or else they have to be perfect with off speed stuff, when they cant locate they get killed cause hitters wait for that 90 mph fastball.

      1. First of all, Nola’s not a fireballer, but he’s also not a soft tosser – he lives in the 91-94 range – perfectly average to above average for a starter.

        Second, he has ridiculous, movement and ridiculous command of 2 to 3 plus or near plus breaking pitches.

        He’s not an example of how velocity isn’t important. He’s an example of just how many things you need to do well to be successful if you don’t have plus velocity.

        But normally, if you’re a righty and don’t have good velocity, you’re Jake Thompson or Ben Lively – basically, just another scrub.

      2. @roccom – you ask me if i watch Nola?!? you should know the answer to that question if you are the true roccom.

        Nola never throw > 95. he can touch 94/95 but mostly sits in 92-94 with his 4S and 90-93 for 2S. Nola’s FB (2S and 4S) is the same as advertised which rely mostly on command and location than velocity.

        Nola’s ascend is mainly due to the development of his CU as a true plus pitch. In Nola last 3-4 starts, Nola doesn’t need to rely on his CB to get the outs he needs – because he can get the batters out with his CU.

        Nola throws a mix of 2S 90-92, 4S 93-94, CU 84-86 and CB 77-79. this is the change of speed that he is talking about with both CU and CB showing plus.

  29. Mets are wasting deGrom’s season. What would you offer them for him? (Not sure what his contract status is)

    1. 2 years of arbitration then Free agency; even if phils could somehow offer enough, would they want to keep him in the NL East?

    2. Nothing – the Phillies need hitting, not more starters and the Mets will be asking for a boat load of value. No thanks. Pass.

  30. DeNato released – not a big surprise. More releases will be coming prior to round of promotions.
    So who will get Florimon’s spot? Since JP will get that spot in a week, I don’t think they’ll want to add a 40 man spot for a week. That means Cozens may come up for a week since he’s the only position player on the 40.

    1. Murray … As far as I know they haven’t put Eickhoff on the 60 day DL list yet. When they do, that will open a spot. It could be Cozens, Rickles, or Meneses.

        1. I feel about Walding the way I felt about Stassi – he battled forever and finally made it; good for him!!! One difference, however, is that Walding is much younger and a much better prospect than Stassi. He truly has an outside chance to be a bona fide major league player.

      1. maybe move Eickhoff or Neshek to 60-day DL. With Taveras and Anderson back from DL stint, there’s enough cushion for any pitching needs.

  31. During first game vs. Dodgers – the team’s announcers made comment about Neshek “working out” on the sidelines. Implication – he would be returning in 1 to 2 weeks ? That is the additional needed relief pitcher – hopefully that is the case.

  32. If I have to make a bold prediction, it will be Machado getting traded to the Phillies for Pivetta, Eshelman (or Enyel delos Santos) and another bullpen arm in the minors.

    I expect that LAD and CHC will be the 2 biggest bidders but LAD’s GM (Zaidi) never really traded any of its top prospects since joining LAD in 2014 and CHC and BAL will not any fit that work both ways.

    BAL will continue to ask for a high price but since no teams balked from that demand during the offseason (they can have 1 season of Machado), i don’t any of them will change their stance for 2 months of Machado.

    BAL at a minimum will ask for 2 controllable arms – this where Phillies will come in. Pivetta and delos Santos strong start in 2018 makes them very intriguing. But BAL will decide to hedge the and take safe choice of Eshelman with Pivetta and ask for a pen arm (or Lively) as a sweetener.

    1. I think the Phillies would have to endure the “pain” of giving up one starting position player or pitcher on the big league roster in order to acquire even 2+ months of a player like Machado. If they aren’t willing, then wait until the fall.

      1. @8mark – yes, and that’s Pivetta. BAL mentioned at least 2 controllable arms
        which the Phils can provide. I don’t see BAL pricing themselves out but will set a minimum price of a compensation pick equivalent.

        LAD will not give up a top prospect for a rental since Seager is their future SS. CHC can offer a package highlighted by Russell. NYY will look for a SP not a SS/3B. WAS can be intriguing, but they will probably look for bullpen help. BOS has nothing to offer – especially the arms that BAL is looking for.

        If there’s a team that I will be worried, it will be ATL since they have the better stable of arms than the Phils.

        Klentak just need to wait for the contenders look to different directions and Machado will be there for the Phils. Klentak just need to offer a value better than a compensation pick and BAL might pull the trigger.

  33. I aint giving up Pivetta for a rental.. you really cant be serious. Did you ever see him pitch.??

    1. @roccom, follow catch’s advise. just stay home and relax. trade’s and big time GM plays are not for faint-hearted.

    2. the odds of Machado signing with the Phils LT is real.

      v1again proposed a trade of delos Santos + Haseley (plus Kingery and Medina). I believe that Haseley is a big leaguer and can be part of the future core with Kingery and Medina.

      Pivetta and Eshelman (or delos Santos) is a bargain price.

      1. Kuko, I believe Eshleman is a far cry from de los Santos at this juncture. But I’m tracking with you all the same.

        1. I would trade Pivetta and two non-premium prospects for Manny because (1) I think they have a good chance of re-signing him and (2) you never know how far into the playoffs we might go. For those calculated risks I would do it. Baltimore? Not sure.

      2. The odds of Machado signing long-term with the Phillies based on a 2-month trial run is non-existent. He will sign with the Phillies long-term IF they have a credible offer…

        Trading away controlled assets to win nothing in 2018 won’t help that process.

        1. whether the Phils trade for Machado or not, they will be in the Top 3 teams that can and will sign Machado.

          NYY has a dire need of SP and they will target Corbin and the other big market teams are cash strapped. These teams know that the Phils can match them $ for $ and they will all balked for $35M AAV for Machado which the Phils will say its peanuts.

          at some point, Klentak cannot hold all of the young players in the team. Medina, delos Santos, Eshelman, Edgar Garcia will be added to the 40-man this year and the Phils might consider Gamboa, MIlls and Rosso too.

  34. I don’t believe that Machado signs LT before FA so I give up very little to get him early. Certainly not Pivetta or Kingery. I think MM is terrific, but I don’t believe that the team that trades for him gets any extra advantage to signing him. I know some of you differ. And, I respect your opinions, but I believe we have the same chance to sign him regardless of where he finishes the year.

    1. That kid has opened eyes for sure.
      Perhaps he will get a promo to CLW next month.
      His Game Score may be the highest in all of baseball this year.

      1. Romus m8 you always open my eyes. I cant wait to wake up. to read your words of wisdom.

        1. rocco….big game tomorrow…Kershaw vs Nola…. two aces square off.
          Who’s your money on?
          BEST PHI RUN LINE +1.5…(-175)

    2. Tim….Stewart velo at 93 today…for a lefty that is good at his stage of development.

      1. He that’ s where Steward tops out at 93 area . He has really Good CH and he’s a ground ball machine. his curve is a work in progress.
        I didn’t know he was a bonus baby 20 th 100,000.

      2. I don’t know how hot Lakewood’s gun is, but when watching the game I know I saw 94 twice and 95 once. Granted I didn’t see every pitch as I was watching while working.

      3. Cole Irvin game score 88, 1 out from a CG shout out. Man I have a lefty rotation of Steward, Irvin , Ranger , Jo,Jo, Falter dancing in my head .

  35. See romus. our boy tim is learning. 93 is good for a lefthander tim. well done. Now pls m8 take your meds. it helps you spell.lol

    1. Roccum I’m big believer in LHP over Rhp . Also Korea and Japan Rhp are a different breed.

  36. I feel bad for Roman Quinn. If he’s injured, he will be getting a lot of play time in the big leagues with Hoskins, Florimon, JPC out.

    1. Exactly. These guys have had limited ABs so far because of the OF crunch so now its time for them to step up and produce with Rhys on the DL.

  37. Eflin got bombed again. His control is just not there. He hung a changeup to Muncy, and then threw a fastball middle-in to Kemp. Both balls went a long way. That was his 5th start…not sure if he should get a 6th.

  38. Kind of bummed Valentin doesn’t get the start last night. He’s been up a few weeks now right and only has 13 PA’s. Quite frankly he should be getting some starts at SS over Kingery.

    Kingery has been excellent with the glove no doubt but he’s offered nothing offensively.

    But in classic fashion they went out on a limb and gave him a contract so they will stubbornly keep running him out there.

    1. DMAR..agree on Valentin.
      Been up now 32 days…11 games, three starts (6PAs)..13 PAs total.
      A 24-year old prospect and rides the pine most of the time.
      Makes no sense what they are doing.
      Injuries and the 40 situation are factors, but once they put Flo on the 60, he has a broken foot, then sign a veteran, and put Valentin in LHV to get steady ABs the end of July. They already have Walding up.

    2. agreed. did Walding find out he was getting the call and flew cross the country wednesday and then get put in the lineup? that would be tough.

    3. dmar Kingery has been excellent with the glove?? not the kid I am watching, I must be watching his brother

      1. if roccom is Captain America, Cesar is the Winter Soldier. roccom is so protective of them Cesar.

        1. Kurdt I do the same with Romus.. I wont let anyone hurt m8, I believe in god. country and romus

    4. I think they are running him out there because they believe in him not because it’s a sunk cost. Still Valentin should get some playing time – there’s no excuse for it especially given the struggles of so many of the hitters.

      1. Catch if he doesn’t sign the deal before the season does Kingery make the 25? I’m not so sure he does.

        1. No, and he wouldn’t be up yet either most likely. And I still believe in him, but that’s how I think it would have played out.

  39. Read the story Matt Gelb wrote for the Athletic. It really is great for these kids that get a shot. He really worked his way up. I am a sucker for these feel good stories, I know, but I am happy for him. He did not have a great night at the plate, but he made it to the Big Leagues and that is a good thing.

    1. It’s great to see these players work hard and get a shot. I hope he gets a hit soon because who knows when he will ever get another opportunity (remember Steve Susdorf?)

  40. Whether it involves Machado or not, I can see Klentak being active at the trade deadline.

    Arquimides Gamboa and Deivi Grullon are Rule 5 eligible and currently don’t have space in the 40-man. A rebuilding team like CIN, MIA can nab Gamboa and burn a roster spot for a year.

    Gamboa, Grullon and possibly 2-3 RH starters will be Klentak’s trade chip at the deadline which can also include the 1.3 pick this next.

    My trade targets are:

    1) Realmuto
    2) Machado
    3) Fulmer
    4) Archer – if buy low.
    5) Hamels

    1. You know you have to trade talent for talent right? Gamboa, Grullon and those 2-3 RH starters are not top 100 prospects. Those players are add-ins to a Sixto or Adonis deal.

      1. @Guru – there’s a lot of mechanics (i.e. cash, rental, dead contracts, etc) in any trade scenarios. if a GM is just looking to swap talent for talent, then he is not creative enough because it’s either a wash or he might eventually lose the deal.

        1. I understand that, but the main sticking point is that you’re going after serious talent. It’s one thing if you’re trading for international money, or buying a prospect. In this case, you need talent to get those guys you mentioned. And if you say that the GM needs to be creative, then you need to tell me when a GM in the past has used his creativity to do that. Otherwise, you’re just wishing to get those players for peanuts, and no GM in their right mind will do that.

          1. and no GM will just sit at the deadline and risk is losing a good player for nothing.

            When teams did not pull the trigger on a Machado deal last winter, is a sign GMs are not trigger happy and will not be overpaying.

            I proposed a Pivetta + Eshelman (or delos Santos) for a rental Machado — if you think that this is a junk deal and both RHPs are peanuts, that we’ll see what BAL will get from Machado at the deadline.

            To make it easy for you, I will put together these package based on the peanuts that you are talking about.

            1) Machado (2 months rental)
            – Pivetta + Eshelman (or delos Santos)

            **** – giving up Pivetta is already an overpayment, not peanuts

            2) Realmuto + bad contract(s)
            – Alfaro + Moniak + Eflin (or Lively or Taveras) – none of these are Top 100
            – Alfaro + Gamboa + Grullon + Lively
            – Kilome + Gamboa + Grullon + Lively

            3) Hamels
            – Eflin + Gamboa + Grullon

            4) Fulmer (+ Anibal Sanchez and his contract)
            – Kilome + Gamboa + Grullon + Lively
            – Rule IV 1.3 pick + Lively

            5) Archer
            – basically similar to Fulmer contract depending on how Archer is playing

            I can also include Happ but I think NYY will target him before Hamels so Klentak should just let NYY get Happ since Hamels will be there for him.

            1. You should keep this post and when those guys get moved, you’ll see that you’re low balling the offers.

  41. GREAT WIN! Nola is becoming a master. Gutsy performance. Seranthony locks it down without a doubt. Braves beat Nats to begin a 4 game set. Let them beat each other up while we sneak up to Frisco and continue our 93 win pace.🤩

  42. What a difference a year makes:
    Phils are 31-23 , a year ago, the Phils were 17-34 at the end of May on pace for 93 wins.
    Now get thru the June Swoon of 27 games vs the top teams in the majors.

    1. We should have took 3 out of 4 from the Dodgers. That first game, VV left with a 4-2 lead.

      1. Yeah…there were about 3/4 of those games so far this season…..starting with the opening day game in Atlanta.

      2. be careful now. that unfortunate 8th inning when LAD made their 3-run rally is when the Winter Soldier made a crucial throwing error. Without it, the Phils could escape that inning with a 4-3 lead.

  43. Cozens should get the start tonight against a RH pitcher. Klentak inherited an aging team with a barren farm system, and now the Phillies are loaded.

    1. @wawa – i disagree. Klentak was hired Oct 2015. The Phillies team probably stinks but they are not aging when Klentak inherited it. RAJ traded Hamels, Paps, Chase, Jimmy, Chooch before turning over the team to Klentak.

      As for the minors, the farm doesn’t have elite prospects but prospects like Nola, Hoskins, Kingery, JPC, Pivetta, Knapp, Alfaro, Eickhoff, Williams, Eflin, Arano, Valentin, Quinn, etc already in the farm.

      Even Kilome, Sixto, Medina, Gamboa, Seranthony, Edgar Garcia, Brito are already in the farm when Klentak joined the front office.

    2. other than the R4 draft, R5 draft and J2 signings post-October 2015, Klentak is responsible for the following:

      1) Ken Giles trade remaining trade returns – Vinny, Eshelman
      2) Jake Arrieta
      3) Carlos Santana
      4) Trade for Enyel delos Santos, JD Hammer and Mills
      5) Signing of Muzziotti and Gutierrez

  44. Wasn’t sure if I should post this here or in the open draft thread. I flipped a coin, and the open thread wins !

    Matt Klentak … you need to immediately pull out your cell phone and call “Discount Derek Jeter”. The Marlins have given up their plan to try and get some production from Brad Ziegler and then flip him at the deadline. According to MLB Trade Rumors.com, Ziegler has been replaced as the Marlins’ closer. From the story:
    “While Ziegler, 38, technically only has one blown save on the year, it’s been a nightmarish start to the season for him all the same. He’s been scored upon in 10 of his 24 appearances (including three of his past five) and is currently carrying a 7.83 ERA with 34 hits, six walks and a hit batter through 23 innings. Ziegler’s 5.9 K/9 is right in line with his career mark, and he’s still showing good control (2.4 BB/9) with excellent ground-ball tendencies (68.7 percent). However, the submariner is serving up hard contact at a 46.5 percent clip after registering a 28.2 percent mark in that regard a year ago.”
    Jeter still owes Ziegler about 6 million dollars for the rest of this season. The Padres just paid about 7 million of Phil Hughes’ contract to acquire Minnesota’s comp B draft pick. Klentak needs to offer to eat Ziegler’s 6 million (maybe even throw in a guy like Zac Curtis) for Miami’s comp B pick. That comp B pick would amount to the Phillies recouping their 3rd round pick because of all the FA signing machinations. That third round pick would be #80 overall and come with 738,700 slot dollars.
    C’mon, Matt. Get it done.

  45. Jim … this didn’t post the first time I tried, so I’m going to give it another shot. If it ends up posting twice, feel free to delete one.
    Wasn’t even sure if I should post this here or in the draft thread. I flipped a coin, and the open thread wins !

    Matt Klentak … you need to immediately pull out your cell phone and call “Discount Derek Jeter”. The Marlins have given up their plan to try and get some production from Brad Ziegler and then flip him at the deadline. According to MLB Trade Rumors.com, Ziegler has been replaced as the Marlins’ closer. From the story:
    “While Ziegler, 38, technically only has one blown save on the year, it’s been a nightmarish start to the season for him all the same. He’s been scored upon in 10 of his 24 appearances (including three of his past five) and is currently carrying a 7.83 ERA with 34 hits, six walks and a hit batter through 23 innings. Ziegler’s 5.9 K/9 is right in line with his career mark, and he’s still showing good control (2.4 BB/9) with excellent ground-ball tendencies (68.7 percent). However, the submariner is serving up hard contact at a 46.5 percent clip after registering a 28.2 percent mark in that regard a year ago.”
    Jeter still owes Ziegler about 6 million dollars for the rest of this season. The Padres just paid about 7 million of Phil Hughes’ contract to acquire Minnesota’s comp B draft pick. Klentak needs to offer to eat Ziegler’s 6 million (maybe even throw in a guy like Zac Curtis) for Miami’s comp B pick. That comp B pick would amount to the Phillies recouping their 3rd round pick because of all the FA signing machinations. That third round pick would be #80 overall and come with 738,700 slot dollars.
    C’mon, Matt. Get it done.

    1. … and this one did post. So, I’ll give my original post another shot. Hope third time is a charm.

      1. Matt Klentak … please put down whatever you are doing right now and call “Discount Derek Jeter”. The Marlins have given up their plan to try and get some production from Brad Ziegler and then flip him at the deadline. According to MLB Trade Rumors.com, Ziegler has been replaced as the Marlins’ closer https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/kyle-barraclough-replaces-brad-ziegler-marlins-closer.html. From the story:
        “While Ziegler, 38, technically only has one blown save on the year, it’s been a nightmarish start to the season for him all the same. He’s been scored upon in 10 of his 24 appearances (including three of his past five) and is currently carrying a 7.83 ERA with 34 hits, six walks and a hit batter through 23 innings. Ziegler’s 5.9 K/9 is right in line with his career mark, and he’s still showing good control (2.4 BB/9) with excellent ground-ball tendencies (68.7 percent). However, the submariner is serving up hard contact at a 46.5 percent clip after registering a 28.2 percent mark in that regard a year ago.”
        Jeter still owes Ziegler about 6 million dollars for the rest of this season. The Padres just paid about 7 million of Phil Hughes’ contract to acquire Minnesota’s comp B draft pick. Klentak needs to offer to eat Ziegler’s 6 million (maybe even throw in a guy like Zac Curtis) for Miami’s comp B pick. That comp B pick would amount to the Phillies recouping their 3rd round pick because of all the FA signing machinations. That third round pick would be #80 overall and come with 738,700 slot dollars.
        It’s a deep draft. Get us another pick, Matt.

      2. No luck again.
        In a nutshell … the Marlins have demoted Brad Ziegler. He’s no longer closing. He’s been a disaster, and is still owed about 6 million dollars. The Padres just ate about 7 million dollars of Phil Hughes contract to acquire Minnesota’s comp B pick.
        Matt Klentak needs to offer to take on Ziegler’s 6 million dollars and even give Miami Zac Curtis in return for the Marlins’ comp B pick.
        After all the FA signing penalties, the Phillies would end up recouping their third round pick (#80 overall and worth almost 840 thousand slot dollars). This makes a whole lot of sense.

  46. Heyman and Nightengale predicts Machado going to Phe Phils before the July 31 deadline. Heyman proposed some “peanuts” in Gamboa + delos Santos + Taveras for a Machado rental. Front office relationship will give the Phils the edge in signing Machado when he hits FA.

    Some also thinks that BAL will not get as much as they want for a 2 months of Machado. LAD (Zaidi) is not showing that he is giving up any top prospects and CHC’s farm is depleted and may look for pitching (instead of hitting). CHC best offer will be Addison Russell. NYY will probably look for SPs (i.e. Happ, Hamels). STL can probably compete with the Phils by offering a package of Dakota Hudson and some, but STL may balk for a 2-month rental which they know they can’t resign.

    1. Gamboa and de los santos would hurt, plus I’d rather see them give up some guys on the 40 to open some spots up.

      1. Both Gamboa and delos Santos need a 40-man spot by November to protect from this year’s Rule V. Whether Klentak decide to be active (or not) before the R4 or at the trade deadline, there will be a series of purge in the 40-man since Medina, Edgar Garcia, Eshelman and delos Santos needs to be protected. The others like Gamboa, Brito, Llovera, Davis, Wags, Mills and Rosso are exposed too.

        1. KuKo……agree.
          So many will needed to be added this Nov….and do not forget people favorite this year Edgar Cabral, catcher.

    2. If you’re the GM of the Orioles, you’re screwed if you trade Manny and screwed if you don’t. So if you trade Manny for peanuts, you’ll be the guy known to have done this. And if you keep Manny, you’ll get a compensation pick. So what do you do?

      And even though the Phillies have the money to sign Machado, it doesn’t mean they will. If you’re into analytics, you know that long term, expensive contracts almost never work out for the team. For every Max Sherzer, there’s Troy Tulowitzki, Albert Pujols, etc. The Yankees traded for Stanton, and he’s giving them 1 WAR at age 28. Stanton is only under contract until 2027. No biggie.

      1. Not signing either Machado or Harper because of analytics and how long term contracts don’t work for the team will not fly after Middleton & Co. have made it clear as crystal that they will spend a lot of money.

        As for the Baltimore GM, Duquette is a lame duck and it’s been intimated that Grady Anderson is taking the reins. They will take the best deal (in their estimation) and I agree that no club will offer any top prospect for a rental Manny. And which big market teams will try to acquire him before he becomes a FA? Those are our main competitors.

        1. it will be in the Phils favor that big market teams (who can afford to sign Machado in FA) in the playoff hunt have other needs. I can see NYY and CHC going for pitching help since they have enough offensive power in their current line up. BOS needs catching help and WAS probably prefers bullpen arms and will be caution giving up big time prospects that will hurt them long term if Harper decided to sign somewhere else. LAD with Zaidi as GM never show any intention to trade their top prospects and now that Kershaw is having a health concern, they will most like hold to their young players like Buehler, Urias, White, etc.

          ARI, MIL, STL, ATL are the other teams that might compete with the Phils. But I doubt they will give up a lot for a rental since these teams know they might lose Machado in FA.

        2. There’s spending money (they spent $135M on Santana and Arrieta) and then there’s dropping $400M on Machado. Middleton didn’t say that they were going to do that.

          Anyways, I made my point, and we’ll see what happens in the next 12 months. I’m not afraid to eat crow, so if the Phillies do trade for Machado with peanuts and/or give Machado crazy money, I will still be here.

          1. He didn’t say it, but I’m pretty sure they are ready to at least one contract like that with a FA and will sign any of their own guys they would like to keep to some crazy deals. Nola is going to get paid.

            1. Nola won’t be a FA until 2022. Nola will get paid, and I think he’s more likely to get it from the Phillies because he’s a homegrown guy.

            2. I’m one of the biggest Nola fanboy here. I can see why the Phils did not offer a contract to Nola yet (after they offered Doobie and Kingery). Nola has been hurt and he’s is mostly a FB-CB guy that time. With the arm looking healthy and the stuff (addition of the plus CU) is playing better than advertised, Nola and the Phils will come into an agreement soon buying out the 3 ARB years to get the 3 early years of FA keeping Nola in the red pin stripes until the age of 32/33.

          2. Guru … you will probably be the last poster on here to believe the Phillies are definitely signing Manny Machado (or Bryce Harper). You’re going to have to allow yourself to get excited 🙂

            1. Let’s just say I’m tempering my expectations in the matter. With a contract that large, I will need to see it to believe it!

      2. BAL’s best approach to keep Machado is to pay him, which they know they don’t want to do because they will not win a bidding war. So BAL will go to the highest bidder with a return value at least equivalent to the compensation pick that they will get if Machado walks away.

        With the way MLB teams are structured (i.e. 7-years of control over a player without committing to a big $$ contract), big time FA signings are basically paying the 2-4 goods years and the rest of the contract are sunk costs. GM knows that big time FA signings are for the “WIN-NOW” mode – this explains the above signings that you mentioned. MIA with a young core of Jose Fernandez (RIP), Yelich, Ozuna, Gordon, up and coming Realmuto — the Stanton signing is a WIN-NOW move (and to put sits in the stadium), unfortunately, Loria cares more about cashing in some $$ than actual winning.

        PHI will NOT pursue and sign Machado because a certain computer (or analytics) said so. They will sign Machado or any big time FA because they believe that they have the pieces to compete and make a run for the next 5 years at least where the $$ they will pay Machado or Harper will commensurate the performance.

        1. Why couldn’t they win a bidding WAR for Machado? They have more salary space than any team in the majors. OF COURSE they could win a bidding war – if Arizona could win one, they certainly could.

          1. what team are you referring to? I’m talking about BAL knowing that they will not win a bidding war against team interested to sign Machado. I think my statement is clear about it.

      3. Guru…you make a good point.
        I see Kershaw now…..maybe near the cliff…..if the back is serious the Dodgers have to keep him and he will not opt out this year.They will be on the hook for two more years for $65M.

        At some point the owners will need to have ‘mutual or club opt out’ clauses for protection against the long term downhill trend.

        1. @romus – unlike NBA where players can sign a big contract at the age of 23-25, MLB players don’t enjoy that. So players after the team control will look for that one big contract that analytics don’t like. On the contrary, players under team control over-perform their current salary. That’s the reality that everybody have to live in the MLB world.

          Teams/players can hedge that by entering into a contract the buys out some of the team control years like the contracts that signed by Doobie, Kingery and others.

          If any GM will try to use the analytics/WAR thing (and you and Guru are saying) to sign Harper, Machado and other big time players, their agents will hang their phone and not talk to you again. These FAs will want the most money and/or best chance to win. They will not care what a computer or analytics will say.

          However, for lower tier players, GMs might be able to use analytics to determine the contract terms.

          1. KuKo….just the one big exception…..the greatest player in baseball getting his bump up 4 years ago at age 23…then the better bump up two years ago which this latest mod will carry him thru 2020…when he turns 29

            1. @romus – i don’t consider this as an exception but rather a fair gentlemen’s agreement between the 2 parties. LAA basically bought 3 years of Mike Trout’s FA years by overpaying him during in his 3 ARB years.

              Looking at the $144.5M/6 year deal, it’s basically a $18M/yr for the 3 ARB years and $30M/year for the 1st 3 FA years which looks fair.

            2. KuKo…….It was offered and Trout agreed.
              I guess you can use differing semantics…..but it was an exceptional dealing for the biggest star in the game
              Machado and Harper did nothing of the sort.

            3. @romus – you have to look at the bigger picture when assessing this kind of FO decisions.

              LA front office mind set is way different compared to WAS (Harper) and BAL (Machado). When Trout was promoted to the majors, LAA decided to be win now mode signing Pujols to $240M contract, Hamilton $125M contract and they signed Sciosa to a 10-year contract few years back. Art Moreno is playing the big boys game so signing the best young player they have is a no brainer.

              I have a reason to believe that WAS intends to lock Harper. And you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to realize that the Harper-Boras will not lock themselves into an agreement that will limit their $$ potential WAS got the hint when Harper indicated that a $400M contract is underselling him. Go figure.

              BAL front office is a different story. They love to keep Machado but they know they can’t afford him – the $144.5M/6yr that Trout got is probably to much for them to absorb. None in BAL’s decision making is indicate the same intention that LAA showed.

        2. love to see a say 8 yr deal after 4 club can opt out but if it doesn’t the player gets a raise, good for both parties.

          1. rocco…will not happen……yet.
            The ‘opt-out ‘now is strictly a players trump card.
            it is still fairly new and recent for these mega star deals
            The teams do not have that luxury and have yet to pursue it.
            But in time I can see it happening.

      1. I know we graduated a lot, but man that kind of shocking with the pitching we have. Seranthony should be considered a prospect still now too.

        1. Seranthony is a reliever, so those type of players are usually not on top 100 lists. And if they were, they would have to be lights out in the minors, like Craig Kimbrel.

      2. I’m actually not surprised that it is only Sixto who made it. Medina, Haseley, JoJo and Jhailyn had a slow start in the year. Seranthony will not get high ranking because of age and RP profile.

        BA puts so much premium of age, projection and loud tools which don’t match the prototypical prospects that Johnny A. are drafting.

  47. Based on his whole body of work, Harper should not be given the type of contract that he will undoubtedly be seeking. There is some thought that Harper and Trout are two sides of the same coin, but it’s not the case. At his peak, Harper produces the kind of value that Trout does – or close to it – but he’s inconsistent and sometimes gets hurt which means he is MUCH less valuable than Trout. The only thing about Harper is that he’s so young – so if you sign him, you’d be spending on the hope that he reaches his potential. For me, it’s too much money and too many years to guess on him. So Machado would seem to be a much better risk.

    1. You know Harper’s agent is Scott Boras right?

      You know how I feel about these big contracts. But in terms of WAR, they are very similar players: 30.2 WAR for Machado, 27.3 for Harper. There’s definitely a lot more variance with Harper, but he should get at least the same contract as Machado. Injuries are a concern, but he’s not a pitcher so I think injuries won’t be too much of a factor in negotiations.

    2. Good point on Harper’s durability and availability .
      Of his five previous full seasons, excluding his rookie year, he has played on average 78% of the games in a full season, or approx 126 games per season.
      So he missed about a quarter of each season of those five full seasons.

    3. the analytics people can try to put value for every player, but at the end of the day trade value and FA signings is all about “economics”. Supply vs demand. If a lot of teams want to sign a particular player (i.e. Harper, Machado), the price goes up. If not, the price goes down. GM can use some lousy mathematical calculations to set up their price, but it is the economics/market is what will dictate the final value that the teams will need to pay.

      Actions of one or two crazy GMs can change the economics the trade deadline and upcoming free agency.

  48. If Arrieta can stay healthy and keep his FB in the 92-94 range, then the Phillies got a steal. He’s an absolute maestro on the mound – he knows what he’s doing and he does it with purpose.

    1. @tim – at this stage of their carrer, Arrieta and Nola are not the same. Nola can legitimately miss bats with almost all of his pitches. Arrieta can probably handle a tight inning better tan Nola, but he needs to rely on command and movement to get batters out.

      1. That’s it both Arietta and Nola have control and command of 3 pitches . I’m not putting them side to side per say. Pivetta, VV , really Elfin don’t have that yet . Pivetta seems to have 1 ing that his control goes south , VV can give you a good game then 2 bad ones. Elfin has to stay out of the middle of the zone. ML 96 mph FB are much better when there not in the middle of the zone.

  49. Just glancing at the 40man roster, I can see these 7 names missing (5 pitchers) at some point before the rule 5, not accounting of course for possible trades of other higher value players:

    LHP Zac Curtis
    RHP Ben Lively (trade inclusion?)
    LHP Hoby Milner
    RHP Jake Thompson
    RHP Jose Tavares (trade inclusion?)
    IF Mitch Walding
    OF Roman Quinn (trade inclusion?)

    Any of these could easily be dropped long before the rule 5 should other acquisitions be made. And there are several worthy prospects who will need to have room made for them by November. Klentak has some wheeling and dealing to do.

    1. Wayne not to be mean. but do you ever watch the phillies? Camron Rupp to a team who might be the worst offensive team I ever remember. I turn off games when the other teams scores two runs. Watching second and third and your middle of the lineup and not even get a fly ball. total disgrace. They are so bad. Machado isn’t going to make them that much better. They need a first basemen. third ,catcher. shortstop and two outfielders who can hit, terrible lineup.

      1. rocco….”They need a first basemen. third ,catcher. shortstop and two outfielders who can hit, terrible lineup.”………looks like you only like Cesar and Doobie.

        Perhaps adding Machado and Madrigal would be a good thing.
        They are two who do not have the high well above normal ‘ swing and miss in the zone’ issues like players like Alf, Williams, and even Knapp….then there are Franco’s constant over-swinging and the youthful growing pains of Kingery to go along with unusual disappointing Hoskins’ slump.
        I do not think it is as bad as you may paint it.

  50. In an otherwise pretty uneventful/boring Phillies game last night, I’ve gotta’ give mad props to the guy/76ers fan sitting behind home plate. He changed his white T-shirt between every inning, and the messages across each shirt didn’t disappoint. Among my favorites: “Fire BC”, “Where is Eric Jr?”, and (my absolute favorite !) “I’m With Hinkie”. Dude was all the entertainment I needed !!!!! 🙂

    1. Hinkie I found someone I hate more than Bill Giles. Josh Harris. what is he waiting for.???

  51. Hinkie, He was the highlight of the game! The Phils bats are really all slumping. There is no one going well right now, and I find it hard to sit through all of these Ks. The Defensive lapses are getting a bit old also.

      1. 8mark – I agree. Several more lifeless offensive games like last night and I would trade almost anybody for MM. Other than Alfaro (?) and Williams – nobody can hit the ball into the outfield. I’m wondering if it even makes sense to get Rupp back as the back up catcher because at least he has some power ??? Frustrating to watch.

        1. RU … I’m going to bring something up that no body likes to talk about. The DH, and expanding the roster. I hate the DH, but it’s time has come. Let’s just do it. It sucks having a back up catcher that you can’t use. If you use him as a PH, then you have no backup. Expand the roster to 27 players. MLB can afford it.

  52. Wait Herrera too Williams is doing good . Franco at least is hitting the ball the other way.

  53. Another snoozefest. I can’t believe I stayed awake for that whole game.
    To be honest, I was actually splitting my time between the Phillies and Oregon State (on ESPN 2). Nick Madrigal was way more entertaining than the Phillies.

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