2018 Draft Discussion: May 27th

This is the Phuture Phillies 2018 Draft Discussion for comments about the upcoming draft.

The Phillies have the third overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second and third round picks when they signed free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.

Their total bonus pool is only $8,858, 500.  Their total was reduced by over $2.25M of slot money with the two picks they lost.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:       3  – $6,947,500
  •   4th:   107 –    $522,900
  •   5th:   137 –    $390,600
  •   6th:   167 –    $292,700
  •   7th:   197 –    $228,000
  •   8th:   227 –    $180,600
  •   9th:   257 –    $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –    $142,600

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.

147 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: May 27th

    1. So let me get this straight. HOF pat Gillick is a moron? That is awfully disrespectful, for a man with his resume’ like anyone else he can be wrong but stop it with the “matter of fact” how easy this really is. No MLB scouting dept is dominating the draft for that simple reason, it’s a mine field. The phils are I. 2nd place with 5 of the 9 starters on any one night homegrown from the west coast in altherr, Knapp, Kingery, Crawford, Hoskins. Plus Nola, Morgan, and a slew of international homegrown. The farm while, a little light on bats, is loaded with arms, and lhp ones at that. Irvin, Jojo, Austin davis, Gilbert, falter, Damon Jones, will Stewart, Suarez. Now I’m starting to hear moniak is putting things together somewhat as a 19 year old in high a, and people are quietly now on haseley! Funny how people just go from one end of the spectrum to the other. I guess that’s what fans do. I myself will hang with Gillick 8 days a week and live with whatever “misses” he may have.

      1. I agree with what you’re saying, but I think Johnny A/Klentak/Macphail have more influence on the Phils draft than Gillick.

        1. Honestly, does PG have any influence at all anymore? I think Roccom makes a valid point – the same crew who’s created the last several draft boards are again in charge this year and that’s not at all comforting considering the dumpster fire we’re currently watching.

    1. I would not pick Bart, rocco. Catchers are risky high 1st round picks. I like Madrigal. Sounds like it’s going to be Bohm. Bohm is an understandable selection. He’s got a very high ceiling and the Phillies most likely won’t get a chance to draft a college bat like him for a while because they’ll be picking much further back in the first round.

      1. I do not like Bohm. 6-5 240 playing 3b but not considered athletic. Committed 16 errors in college in what amounts to less than half a MLB season. Probably will be moved to 1B a position that looks to be filled for a long time.

        Love everything about Madrigal. To me he seems like a perfect selection the STL Cards would make. Would be thrilled with him but Phillies probably pass.

        Would be okay with any of Madrigal, Singer (if medicals are clean), Bart and HS LHP Liberatore.

        Thank goodness no OF’s on the radar.

        I hope Sal is part of the group looking at the final 10. Trust his judgement a lot.

      2. Why Madrigal? We don’t have enough light hitting middle infielders? Or are we flipping Cesar and moving Kingery?

        1. Why Madrigal? Because he is the best pure hitter in the draft and probably has the highest floor of any player in the draft. And if you subscribe to the “best player available” approach, that too is probably Madrigal if he is available at #3.

          That said, there is the factor of having another guy whose best position appears to be 2B. For that reason, and because he isn’t a power hitter, I doubt Madrigal will be drafted by the Phillies, if he is even available at #3.

          1. Then again…Bohm’s projections for third base are horrific, so he will be moved off there by 2019 probably……so add in another 1st baseman to the mix.
            Run: 35 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45
            “Though he has worked diligently to improve at third base, he lacks quickness and range, his hands are just fair and his arm is only average. He’ll probably wind up at first base but has the offensive upside to profile there”.

          2. Is he the best hitter in the draft though? Isn’t power a significant tool in the modern game? IMO its tough to call someone with 30 grade power the best pure hitter in the draft, and most FO/ experts don’t agree with that assessment anyway.

        2. He is anything but a light hitting middle infielder. Some reports from scouts say he has potential to win batting titles and Gold Gloves. Off the charts baseball IQ and hustle. Could play SS. Has done it in the past.

          I would love them to take Madrigal but I don’t think they will.

          Yes they could be flipping Cesar and maybe Kingery in the next couple of years.

          FWIW’s I expect a lot of prospects to be on the move over the next 6-7 months.

          1. He has no power and no power projection. How is that not a light hitting middle INF? I’m a little lost.

            1. Power yes but not for average. If he hits .300+ is that light hitting? Not in my book.

            2. When his SLG % is under .400 (and I’m not saying its definite but just for sake of argument) then yes, even if he’s hitting .300 that’s light by definition.You may be okay with that b/c of his hit tool, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s light hitting.

            3. Here is his slash line by year.

              2016 .333/.380/SLG .456/ OPS .836
              2017 .380/.449/.532/,981
              2018 .395/.459/.563/1.022

              35 K’s in his career with 32 SB’s.

              Career BA .384 in 138 games (212-551).

            4. I’m not arguing with you he hasn’t performed in PAC-12 but the draft is about projection and his is “no power” according to scouts. Now maybe he turns into Jose Altuve and his hit tool is elite and its a moot point, but as of now he’s a light hitting 2nd baseman profile.

      1. … and the author says the Phillies would pick India (instead of Bohm) to save money to use on later picks. Let’s hope they don’t do that. If they were going to use that strategy (and it seems unlikely they’re going down that road), they would probably cut a deal with one of the high ceiling HS arms (probably Liberatore), not India.

  1. Padres just got Twins Comp pick (#74) for taking on ‘part’ of Phil Hughes salary ‘18 & ‘19.
    This should have been the Phillies! They could have offered to pay more than the Padres.
    Given Phillies have such low payroll and are without 2nd&3rd Rd picks (like Padres w/o 2nd for signing Hosmer), I cant imagine the Twins didn’t approach them.

    *btw, I get the Phils would not have kept the #74 pick but we’d have gained back our 3rd Rd pick (which would have become #80), plus the slot money with it.

    1. Agree with John K (and Romus who posted the same thing yesterday). As the only club w/o a second or third round pick, Matt Klentak should have been working the phones offering to eat as many bad contracts as he could find to get his hands on a competitive balance draft pick(s). AJ Preller bought that pick (#74 overall) and the roughly 800 thousand slot dollars it comes with for a little more than 6 million dollars. That’s aggravating to miss out on that.

      1. Should have said Phillies are the only w/o a second “and” (not or) third round pick.

      2. I left out dohy! How do we know klentak was not trying? We don’t know, I know they have a surplus os arm-the easiest thing to package up in a deal

        1. … ok … let’s just say Klentak wasn’t trying hard enough.
          C’mon … he let AJ Preller and the SD Padres outspend him for a draft pick. We’re talking money, not even prospects (of note).
          I’ve never been one to beat up on Klentak prior to this. In fact, I’ve praised him for being patient. However, missing out on the Twins competitive balance draft pick in just awful.

    2. I really don’t understand why the organization isn’t doing this. Put a different way, if they are serious that this is about getting talent and they are not doing things to try to save money alone, then not doing this makes no sense.

  2. Just two weeks and a day until the draft.

    Nick Madrigal had a weekend to forget. The Oregon State 2Bman went hitless in a series against UCLA. Madrigal was 0 for 11, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SB. He’s now at .395/.459/.563, 15 BB/HBP, 5 K. Madrigal and his Oregon State Beavers team will now move on to the NCAA Regionals and probably the CWS.

    The seasons and college careers have come to an end for Joey Bart and Alec Bohm. Bart and Georgia Tech went 0 and 2 in the ACC tournament. Bohm’s Wichitan State team went 1 and 2 in the AAC tourney. Neither Tech or the Shockers are going to make the NCAA field of 64.

    Bart’s time as a college player ended in a thump. The power hitting catcher went just 1 (single) for 8, and struck out 4 times in the ACC tournament. He finished the season at .359/.471/.632, 16 HR, 49 BB/HBP, 56 K.

    OTOH … Bohm showed well in front of a number of Phillies executives and scouts, including Johnny Almarez, Jorge Velandia, and Charlie Manuel. Bohm went 6 for 13 (double & HR), 1 R, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SB. Bohm ended his junior year slashing .339/.436/.625, 16 HR, 40 BB/HBP, 28 K.

    Here’s a look at Bohm’s HR against UConn:

    One last scouting report on Bohm. This one from former Phillies’ scout and crosschecker Dave Seiiefert (mow working for D1 Baseball.com). Seifert saw Bohm a week ago against Memphis.

    Alec Bohm, 6’5/225, R/R, Junior, 3B, Wichita State- Tall, power hitting corner infielder who has a chance to impact the game with his bat. Selective, aggressive hit approach. Good balance and strength with above average bat speed. A great positive move forward allows him to get everything he has into his free and easy swing. Compact swing for a man his height with great extension through a high finish. Had a plan at the plate and stuck to it. Did not chase any fastballs out of the zone. Crushed the first fastball (86 mph) he saw for a double to right-center field. His towering home run to left field in the second game was against Jonathan Bowlan, a top-five-round pitching prospect, on an 89 mph fastball. On the day, he chased a few average-to-above sliders out of the zone for two strikeouts—one against Bowlan, the other against Riley Cabral. Statistically, Bohm shows little weakness. At 6-foot-5 he already has a bigger strike zone than most, yet he seldom expanded his strike zone. His plate discipline and game power continue to improve each season. Both his walk rates (4.7% as a Freshman / 10.9% as a Sophomore / 15.1% currently this spring) and power production (.186 ISO Freshman / .214 Sophomore / .278 currently) have progressively improved while his strikeout rate has decreased (13.1%/ 11.7%/ 9.3%) each year. Also has an excellent history of hitting with wood in summer leagues, slashing .351/.399/.513 last summer in the Cape Cod League and .330/.407/.552 the previous summer in the Coastal Plains League. His 2018 numbers against RHPs (.357/.466/.650) and LHPs (.279/.359/.544) show a small reverse-platoon split, but when also considering his 2017 spring, the splits are similarly reversed vs. RHPs (.290/.382/.481) and vs. LHPs (.360/.396/.660). Defensively, showed fair actions and hands at third base with near average range. Worked hard during pregame batting practice, taking dozens of ground balls in all directions. High center-of-gravity guy who will need to work even harder on a daily basis to stick at third base over the long term. Showed above average arm strength from a low slot. Flipped the ball more than he threw it. Fair accuracy while throwing on the move, better when his feet were set. Airmailed one throw to first base on a “Sunday hop” grounder a couple steps to his right. So far this season, he’s committed 14 errors (.897) while playing a majority of his games at home on turf. Showed good instincts running the bases with an above average first step on a hit-and-run. Ran a 4.47 down the line on a double-play ground ball. Overall, I like Bohm’s tools, baseball skills, instincts and makeup. And I really like his swing. I’m bearish on his ability to remain at third base long-term. Odds are that he won’t become just the third 6-foot-5 or taller ML third baseman in the last 25 years, Troy Glaus and Kris Bryant being the first two. Glaus was an elite athlete who played shortstop for a top 10 college program (UCLA) and Kris Bryant was almost moved to the outfield during his early years in the Cubs system, and he, too, is a superb athlete. Historically, college third basemen drafted in the top ten overall have a strong history of becoming solid major leaguers. Bohm should continue that track record as a power hitting corner infielder with all-star potential, but in all likelihood, at first base. He will likely be selected within the top five overall picks.

    What the analytics say (based on 2018 statistics through May 10)
    Plate Discipline: 90.8 Hit Ability: 85.8 Game Power: 91.2 Overall: 89.0

    Casey Mize was good/not great in an Auburn loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. Mize was 7.2 IP (95 P), 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 7 K’s. Mize ended the regular season at 102.2 IP, 73 H, 10 BB’s, 140 K’s. He and Auburn will move on to post season ball.

    Brady Singer was scratched from his start in the SEC tourney with what was described as a mild hamstring injury. Florida is the #1 team in the nation and will look to defend last year’s national championship.

    1. Unless he goes a pick higher, Bohm is the guy for me. He sounds like a bigger, stronger version of Maikel Franco, with a chance to be a special hitter if it all comes together.

      BTW, is it me, or do four out of every five 3B prospects carry the “will eventually have to move to 1B” tag? I remember scouts saying the same thing about Franco and I see nothing but a solid defender there.

    2. My bad … 8mark just corrected me … the draft is actually one week and a day away, not two weeks and a day. Time flies.

    3. I agree the Phillies need a masher but one area that always concerns me are power hitters with avg bat speed.

  3. I get the dissatisfaction with the Moniak pick, since Senzel was highly regarded at the time and has turned into a very good 3B prospect. This was not the case in Randolph’s draft. None of the ten players taken immediately after Randolph in 2015 are are top 100 prospects. You could quibble and say they’d be better off with, say, Tyler Stephenson as a catching prospect, but it doesn’t appear they passed on a future star in order to take Randolph.

  4. I am coming around more and more to Bohm but I think I would still go with Singer if Mize and Bart go 1-2.

  5. Hinkie, Kuko, 8mark, catch et al.
    Since BPA is continually discussed post-draft on the merits or non-merits of the first pick, especially as it relates for the last three Phillies’ drafts.
    Who do you consider the BPAs in this draft next Monday…listed as one, as the best, thru descending order to number five?

  6. 1. Casey Mize
    2. Nick Madrigal
    3. Alec Bohm
    4. Brady Singer
    5. Matt Liberatore

    1. @hinkie – great minds do really think the same although I have Libby higher than Singer because of upside.

      1. Mize – no brainer
      2. Madrigal – safest best to the major. Basically the hitting version of Nola.
      3. Bohm – close match of need and BPA at 1.3
      4. Libby – I’ve been screaming his name for the last 2 weeks
      5. Singer – everybody knows I love Nola and Singer is my pick a month ago due to similarity with Nola.

      My darkhorse is Carter Stewart. We haven’t been discussing him as 1.3 option, but I love the physical projection.

  7. Bohn’s college career numbers (extrapolated) are very similar to Adam Haseley for 500 AB’s. Both hit between .316 (Bohm) and .324 (Haseley). Bohm would have scored 95 runs versus Haseley’s 139. Haseley had 35 doubles and 7 triples. Bohm 31.5 doubles and 3 triples. Haseley had 20 HR’s with 93 RBI’s while Bohm had 26 HR’s with 98 RBI’s. Haseley had 72 BB’s with 50K’s and Bohm had 60.6 BB’s with 66K’s.

    1. Joe in my world. and its small. these numbers mean nothing. Unless I know the competition they play against. Which I don’t. Are the parks small. What kind of pitching they facing. , What did they do against drafted or guys who will be drafted. Stuff like that.

      1. roccom with limited access to info on all your questions I came up with some answers. As for strength of schedule Bohm played 3 seasons ’16 was 48 , ’17 was 107 and ’18 was 72. Haseley played two years in the ACC( which isn’t bad at all) which were ’16 56 and ’17 was 67.

        The home park for Bohm is 335′ down the lines and 390′ to center field. UVA is ‘332 down the lines, 372’ to the alley’s and 404″ to center.

        Again comparing a #8 pick and a potential #3. Bohm of course has more natural power but I would say Haseley is a hair better. Again I think he is not very good in college at 3B plus he is playing home games on turf. Hate to imagine in the pros. I see a shift to 1b. Is this what we want? A potential 1b or a 3b?

  8. Johnny Almaraz says the Phillies will be drafting the best baseball players available, not the best athletes in this Todd Zolecki story from MLB.com https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/philadelphia-picks-no-3-overall-in-2018-draft/c-278618226
    “Three years ago, I sat down here and I said we’re going to pursue baseball players with ability,” Almaraz said. “That hasn’t changed. We’re still looking for those baseball players. The Scott Kingerys, the [JoJo] Romeros, the [Cole] Irvins. The list goes on. We want to make sure these players know how to play the game, and that they have ability. It’s so much easier for our player-development staff to handle kids who have some type of knowledge of the game and are pretty strong fundamentally coming into the organization. It really makes things a lot easier for them. They don’t have to work from the ground up.”

  9. any deep draft lists so we can get an idea of who might be around for the phils in the 4th round?

    also any thoughts on taking a risk on rutgers 2 sport star jawuan harris if hes around for the 4th or later? had a bad season and a lot of disciplinary issues but hes fast and strong for his small size

    1. Fredo … last week, I posted three players I’d target/be excited to land at pick #107. I posted them before MLB.com’s top 200 came out. It turned out all three ended up being listed near or at #107.

      * Arizona State CF’er Gage Canning checked in at #107 (Phillies 4th round pick happens to be #107 overall). Canning has been a guy I have been hoping for (and posting about) for weeks. According to Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen, the Cubs like the Arizona State CF’er. IMO, he may be the most exciting player in college baseball. Canning is slashing .369/.429/.648 this year. He is an XBH machine (17 doubles, 11 triples, 9 HR’s), with an ISO of .284 (better than both Bohm and Bart). As Romus mentioned last week, Canning’s K rate is high (career 21.87%) and BB rate is low (career 6.47%). Those stats are the reason he may be available when the Phillies pick at the top of the 4th round. I’m personally not confident Canning will make it to pick #107, but multiple lists have him available there.

      * Louisiana Lafayette LHP Hogan Harris is listed at #111. Harris has a plus FB. He hit 98 in his only relief appearance this season. As a starter he typically sits 90-94 T95. Frankie Piliere (formerly of D1 Baseball.com) liked his CB and SL after seeing him on the Cape last summer. Here’s a piece of Piliere’s report:
      “Where Harris might be able to separate himself from other lefties in the country is with his ability to spin the breaking ball. Harris has multiple variations of his slider and curveball and can manipulate them as needed as his outings move along. He threw his curveball anywhere between 69-76 mph and threw his slider between 78-81 mph. He can vary the shape and showed he could put both these pitches on either side of the plate. Some of his harder curveballs were his best offerings of the summer, showing above-average bite and depth.”
      This season, Harris’ results have not quite matched his stuff (mostly control related issues) … 58.1 IP, 52 H, 30 BB, 54 K, .246 OBA.

      * HS RF’er Elijah Cabell is ranked #102. Here’s Cabell’s report from Perfect Game.org:
      “Elijah Cabell is a 2018 OF/3B with a 6-2 190 lb. frame from Winter Park, FL who attends TNXL Academy. Big and strong athletic build, pretty mature physically. Playing with a minor knee injury and not at full speed, has run 6.62 in the past. Outstanding outfield arm strength with plus on line carry, long and easy arm action, has 100 mph in his arm. Right handed hitter, nice shift into contact, easy bat speed, hits off a hard front side, very strong hands, ball makes a different sound off the barrel, elite level bat speed with big power to all fields, hits easy and hits it hard. Classic right field tools with a high ceiling.”

      Here’s video of Cabell.

      1. Gage Canning from earlier this season. For me, he swings the bat and covers CF like Lenny Dykstra.

        Hogan Harris nearly unhittable out of the BP as a freshman:

      2. Hinkie, any relation to old Houston outfielder Enos Cabell who played in the ’70s/’80s?

        1. I wondered the same thing. I found nothing to believe there is any relationship between the two.

  10. yikes! i took a look at the top 10 picks from last year to see how they are doing and most have struggled, other than royce lewis and hiura. im sure some will turn it around but goes to show you how inexact this is

    1. there is reason why each team has several minor league teams. Most of these prospects don’t make it.

  11. BREAKING …

    From the great Rob Ozga on his The Baseball Draft Report.com https://baseballdraftreport.com/2018/05/29/2018-mlb-draft-notebook/
    He says Bohm may not be a slam dunk pick at 1-3. Maybe Mize ? Maybe Madrigal, Liberatore, even Trevor Larnach. Read this:

    – “Quick notes for Phillies fans who made it this far. As my hometown team, sometimes I hear things about them. Take it all for the rumor and hearsay that it is, but this is what I’ve got. They want Mize and are cautiously optimistic he might fall to them at this point. Callis’s latest mock says Mize/Bart go 1-2 in some order and he’s the best in the business, so maybe that dream is dead before it really has any chance to gain momentum. Liberatore is a legitimate dark horse for the pick despite not being linked to them much (at all?) publicly at this time. There is a ton of internal support for Madrigal to be the guy if Mize is gone, but that’s come down to a divide between those who think he can play shortstop and those who think he’s a second baseman (or potentially center fielder) only. If the side that thinks he can play shortstop wins out, Madrigal could be the pick. Larnarch (who some prefer to Madrigal), Stewart, and Winn also have fans on the inside. There’s also the possibility that they are casually checking in with teams with cost-controlled pitching about who they like at three in the event that somebody fun (Archer?) becomes available sooner rather than later. I’m not sure I buy that, but it’s a fun possibility to at least consider.

    Finally, I’ve heard little about Bohm being the pick. Of course, that doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s the guy. If I had to bet, I’d say he is. There’s way too much public smoke about that for the Bohm fire not to blaze in Philadelphia next week. I almost get the impression that they are so locked in on him — and have been for some time — that they are more exploring contingencies at this point. If Mize is there, I think he’s the pick. If he’s not and Bohm is, then it’s Bohm. If both are gone, then I’d flip a coin between Madrigal or one of the HS pitchers (Liberatore if I had to choose). Liberatore over Bohm is a thing I was told to watch out for, but…I just can’t believe that right now. We’ll see in a week.”

    As I’ve mentioned many times, Rob Ozga is one of my favorite draft writers. Follow him at The Baseball Draft Report.com

    1. How about the part where the Phillies are checking in with teams who have young, controllable pitching who may be available for trade this offseason ? It makes all kinds of sense to find out who they may want in a possible future deal.

    2. If Detroit passes on Mize….do the Giants also do the same?
      I would think the Giants would like to have either bart or maybe even Madrigal, but not sure at all how Detroit’s Avila is leaning.

      1. That’s a great question, Romus. Probably comes down to two questions:
        1. What does Mize’s MRI look like ?
        2. What kind of money is he demanding ?

        I think Rob Ozga’s notes on the Phillies draft plans/hopes/thoughts/strategy is absolutely fascinating.
        * They’re cautiously optimistic Mize will fall to them. Hell, yeah !!! to that.
        * Liberatore is a dark horse candidate.
        * Half the Phillies FO/scouting department want Madrigal (if Mize is gone) because they think he can play SS.
        * Others like Madrigal’s teammate Trevor Larnach (another LHH OFer) better.
        * They’re still considering HSP’s Carter Stewart and Cole Winn.
        * The 1-3 pick may be made (in part) for another team for an off-season trade for a young, controllable SP.

        That’s a whole lot to take in. It sounds like Casey Mize is their (and my) dream scenario. A week out, and they seem to also be considering guys like Liberatore, Stewart, Winn and Larnach as (I assume) under slot candidates. I know Keith Law and I think the McDaniel/Longenhagen team are doing another mock this week. We’ll see if they have any more info on the Phillies’ plans.

        1. Hinkie…Carter Stewart is interesting…tall hi-velo HS RHP.
          I would think the Phillies would go for Liberatore vs Stewart because he has the same upside but is a LHP.
          But those HS arms are scary.
          And Larnach…MLB has him at 26…..and he is big and stron with power, but is slow afoot.
          Matt K and the team have their work cut out for them to make the correct selection.

        2. I don’t think it’s Winn , Stewart , Liberatore HS pitchers don’t get taken this hi. Almarez said last week in an interview the Phillies are looking at College pitchers.
          1.What about Machado who said he wants to SS. Madrigal can’t play SS then.
          2. Mize mite fall because of Medical reports if so how Bad ?

    1. Any idea when Baseball America posts its final mock draft? I tend to trust/value their projections more than anyone’s. Though I am not a subscriber. Fangraphs is also reputable.

      Hinkie, who do you trust most?

      1. 8mark……..do not underestimate Jon Mayo./Jim Callis duo…..they are employed by the league in an around about way, since MLB.com/network is primarily owned by Major League Baseball….and can get access to inside front office chatter.
        Though to stay employed, I would think they would have to be somewhat discreet on any information they get off the record, and thus unable to put out there in the cyber world.

      2. 8mark … I don’t pay for a BA subscription so I don’t have a good feel for what they’re publishing. I pay for an ESPN Insider subscription mostly for Keith Law, and the NFL and NBA draft coverage. I’m a part time subscriber to D1 Baseball.com. For me, Keith Law is pretty well connected. I like the Fangraphs guys, also. They seem to talk to scouts from all across MLB. As I mentioned above, Rob Ozga (IMO) is the most entertaining draft writer, and he is definitely the most Phillies centric draft guy I follow (despite the fact he covers the draft as a whole). You can get a good feel for what I mean by reading his Phillies notes above.
        TBH … it is difficult to mock the MLB draft because so much of the final outcome has a lot to do with players’ signing demands, and it’s really hard for writers to know what those demands are.

      1. rocco…I also like Marigolds. I think he could blossom into a perennial all-star.

    1. rocco … go to you tube and just search the players name along with “baseball” and you can find hours of video.

      1. Hinkie,

        Just a personal note: You are great!!

        Thanks for all of this draft reporting, opining, linking and otherwise being a wealth of knowledge and understanding.

      2. Hinkie watch some video. like you said I could. Bart looks like a guy who will hit some homeruns. Has a uppercut swing. Looks okay behind plate. I saw some video on Mize. his ball really moves. I think he is somewhat a clone of Halladay. I want him.

  12. The Phillies draft plan may depend on money too. Don’t forget they don’t have 2bd and 3 Rd draft choice money.
    Funny fangraphs scouting has Bohm with a 60 grade arm that’s better then Bart’s 55 /55 . Bohm should be able to play LF with that type of arm .

  13. Similar to the 2014 draft strategy, I can see the Phils drafting college heavy in the 1st 2 days of the draft with 1-2 senior signings to get that extra $$ to sign prospects that falls in Day 3.

    1. KuKo…that is exactly what Johnny A said over the weekend.
      Plenty of college arms available from 4 thru 10.

        1. You want to give back Santana or Arietta both most likely will out proform any player drafted in the 2nd or 3rd Rd.

          1. Not when you have all the “depth” this organization has, Tim. A deal for a comp pick should have been made once the regular season began.

      1. yeah, however, college arms available at Rd 4- 10 are mostly back end type or future relievers.

  14. Hinkie …is this a correct? assumption to be made.
    If the GM would pull an AJ Preller maneuver, like the Pads did last week, he could move up from 4th round to 3rd.
    If he traded one of the young arms…either prospect or MLB guy… to the Os for their Round A CBA pick, number 37 that could be feasible..
    You lose the 37th because it is now the 2nd highest in the Santana signing…..Arrieta’s signing’s loss now becomes the Phillies old 45th pick and they get to now keep their 3rd round pick…number 81
    I think that is how the CBA reads..

    1. That is correct, Romus.
      Doesn’t matter if Klentak trades for a comp A or comp B pick. Either one would be forfeited along with the Phillies 2nd rounder (the team loses it’s second and third picks for the Santana & Arrieta signings). That would, in turn, (as you mentioned) allow the Phillies to recoup their third round pick because that pick would then be their fourth selection.
      This all means it makes more sense for Klentak to trade for a comp B pick. The comp B would/should cost less to acquire and would amount to the same thing as garnering a comp A pick. Miami (IMO) makes a whole lot of sense. Klentak could eat some bad money. The Jeter group is already cash strapped.

  15. Romus I think you missed something. The old 45 cant play on a 73 anymore I believe.

  16. From Kiley McDaniel’s chat yesterday:

    Tim: On a podcast White Sox scouting director Nick Hostetler said he could see the top 3 getting blown up from the order almost everyone is assuming. Have you heard anything like that and if so, what will be the catalyst of the change?

    Kiley McDaniel: Well Mize not going 1-1 would do that and that seemed like 50/50 a week ago and now is like 90-95% likely to go as expected. I’d guess that’s what he meant.

  17. MLBs Jon Mayo posted their latest mock last night:
    Tigers – Mize
    Giants – Bart
    Phillies – Madrigal

  18. @tim – do you have your Top 5/10 Rule 4 draft prospects? i assume you don’t have Liberatore and Swaggerty because both are hard to spell. lol!

    1. How’d I get thrown into this no Liberatore is a HS arm. Swaggerty is LH outfielder not very high on him at all.
      It’s either Bohm , Mize,Bart, Madrigal. No need for a long list of 10 .

      1. Every name (and word, for that matter) spelled correctly! Punctuation? Eh….

  19. Keith Law is shaking things up in his mock 3.0 released this morning:

    With the Rays boasting two picks in the compensation round, and the Royals three (two for free agents, one competitive balance pick), both teams are expected to do over-slot deals with players after the first round ends. Which means some names you might expect to see below are absent but will get first-round money at a later selection.

    1. Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

    Although Al Avila & Co. have been spotted all over the country — seeing Joey Bart, Jarred Kelenic, Nick Madrigal and I assume the insides of lots of airport terminals — the industry consensus still seems to be that Mize, the best player in the class, will go No. 1 on Monday.

    2. San Francisco Giants: Cole Winn, RHP, Orange (California) Lutheran HS

    They could still take Mize if he’s there — or Brady Singer or Joey Bart. It does seem like they’re leaning toward a pitcher over a hitter now, and if they take Winn — whom Giants general manager Bobby Evans saw earlier this month — they could save enough to go well over slot at pick 45.

    3. Philadelphia Phillies: Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech

    I think the Phils would be thrilled to get Bart, one of the safest big leaguers in the draft, at this pick. Behind Jorge Alfaro, their big league catcher with an 80 arm and a 2.6 percent unintentional walk rate, their system is very light on catching. They’ve also been linked to Mize and Alec Bohm, and to a lesser extent to Madrigal.

    4. Chicago White Sox: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida

    The White Sox aren’t afraid to take pitchers with unusual deliveries, hitting big time on Chris Sale, while also taking Carson Fulmer in the top 10 and Tyler Danish in the second round. You might even throw Carlos Rodon and Alec Hansen in that category. I’ve also heard them linked with the usual suspects such as Mize, Bart and Madrigal.

    5. Cincinnati Reds: Nick Madrigal, SS, Oregon State

    Madrigal and Bart are the two safest big leaguers in the draft — the probability of either player reaching the majors in some kind of nonzero role (better than a replacement-level player) is as high as anyone else’s in this class. I’ve also heard the Reds with Singer, Jonathan India and Matthew Liberatore (a few times now).

    6. New York Mets: Jonathan India, 3B, Florida

    Almost all college bats here — India, Bohm, Bart, Madrigal, Travis Swaggerty, and possibly Kelenic.

    7. San Diego Padres: Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State

    Although general manager A.J. Preller’s longstanding preference is for high-upside high school players, Bohm slipping to this point could change matters for the Padres, who did go college with two of their three first-round picks in 2016. Other names I’ve heard often here include Liberatore, Kelenic, Carter Stewart and Ryan Weathers. They’ve also been linked to Oklahoma center fielder Kyler Murray as a possible over-slot pick in the sandwich round.

    8. Atlanta Braves: Nolan Gorman, 3B, Sandra Day O’Connor HS, Peoria, Arizona

    Atlanta has been connected to Gorman for a while now, although I have to think they’d be open to taking someone else who fell; I’ve heard them with Singer and Liberatore, and to a lesser extent with Stewart. Of course, they’re automatically assumed (often without reason) to be on every Georgia high school player.

    9. Oakland Athletics: Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama

    They could go college or high school, pitcher or position player, with Swaggerty, Liberatore, Gorman and Shane McClanahan all in their mix.

    10. Pittsburgh Pirates: Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS, Peoria, Arizona

    Liberatore is the best prep lefty in the class, maybe the best prep arm overall, and scouts have linked the Pirates to high school arms all spring, including Stewart as well, with some outside chance they go with one of the high school outfielders instead.


    For me … I would be disappointed if the Phillies picked Joey Bart.

    1. @Hinkie – i agree with the Bart disappointment. IMO, the Phils should just close their pick with Mize-Bohm-Madrigal or Libby-Singer if they can save $$.

      The only caveat is – if they agree with Jeter and MIA to trade Bart for Realmuto. Although I prefer a combination of existing players/prospects (Alfaro/Moniak) and contracts absorbed to acquire Realmuto.

      1. The Bart for Realmuto idea is intriguing except that a deal can’t be made until the off season and Realmuto would likely be traded by this upcoming deadline.

    2. Was shocked when I read Klaw’s article this morning listing Bart as the Phillies pick. Wow.

  20. D1 Baseball.com has released their top 200 college players for the draft. It includes their projection for what round each guy goes. Here are some of the highlights:

    1 Casey Mize (1)
    2 Jonathan India (1)
    3 Joey Bart (1)
    4 Nick Madrigal (1)
    5 Brady Singer (1)
    6 Alec Bohm (1)
    7 Travis Swaggerty (1)
    8 Ryan Rolison (1)
    9 Shane McClanahan (1)
    10 Sean Hjelle (1)
    11 Jackson Kowar (1)
    12 Logan Gilbert (1)
    13 Trevor Larnach (1)
    14 Jameson Hannah (1)
    15 Steele Walker (1)
    16 Jeremy Eierman (1)
    17 Nico Hoerner (1)
    18 Blaine Knight (1)
    19 Griffin Roberts (1)
    20 Tristan Beck (1)
    32 Griffin Conine (2)
    39 Seth Beer (2)
    40 Kyler Murray (2)
    43 Kyle Isbel (3)
    55 Aaron Hernandez (3)
    68 Hogan Harris (4)
    78 Josh Breaux (4)
    79 Brett Kineman (4)
    82 DJ Artis (5)
    88 JJ Schwarz (5)
    89 Andrew Moritz (5)
    90 Gage Canning (5)
    102 Hugh Smith (6)
    104 Bryce Montes De Oca (6)
    106 Jason Bilous (6)
    133 Jawuan Harris (7)
    181 Matt Kroon (post 7th round)

    * Eric Longenhagen earlier this year told me (in a chat) Johnny Almaraz was at an Arizona State-UNLV game. That would cover Isbel (UNLV) and Canning (ASU/ one of my favorite players in this draft). He may have been also been scouting Bryson Stott (UNLV SS/3Bman) who should be a top 5 pick next year.

    * I’m a big fan of Aaron Hernandez and Hogan Harris.

    * If Josh Breaux (JC catcher) somehow falls to pick #107, I’d think long and hard about selecting him. Breaux has a lot of Jorge Alfaro in him. Big arm (hit 100 out of the BP earlier this season), lots of power (37 HR’s over the past two seasons). Was drafted (36th round) by the Astros last year. Phillies drafted Josh’s brother, Joe Breaux in the same round (36th) last year. Neither Breaux signed.

    * Bryce Montes De Oca has a huge arm (upper 90’s T 100) and can hold the velo deep into games. Control is below avg. Could be a high ceiling BP arm if the Phillies can’t develop him as a starter.

    * Kinneman (York) and Bilous (Wilmington) are local kids.

    * Phillies drafted Kroon (3Bman) last year (30th round)

  21. I don’t have a BA subscription. Can somebody with access tell me where Gage Canning, Hogan Harris, Aaron Hernandez, Josh Breaux, Elijah Cabrell, Billy Price and Bryce Montes De Oca are listed on BA’s 500 for the draft ?

  22. Hinkie, because of you I will be hoping for Canning and Harris and it will keep me watching each pick to see if they are still there when we pick again. I appreciate the wealth of Draft information that you have provided us these past weeks.

  23. Understand Johnny A. has already shown a portion of his hand….he mentioned there are plenty of good college arms between the 4th and 10th rounds. I guess that must be a wide-spread industry thought anyway.
    With that in mind….like to see them, at the 4th round selection, take a chance on one of the following college arms if they are still there:
    1.Kansas RHP Jackson Goddard
    2.Arkansas RHP Isaiah Campbell
    3. Wallace CC/JUCO RHP Blake Rivera
    ….all have quality FBs….mid-90s velo, with decent secondary action.

    1. Romus … D1 Baseball.com has those three arms at:

      58. Jackson Goddard (3rd rounder)
      63. Isaiah Campbell (4th rounder)
      129. Blake Rivera (7th rounder)

      BTW … Campbell has two years of eligibility left so he could be a tougher sign/demand more money.

      1. Well then Hinkie, if that is the case as D1 ranks them, the top two I suggested will be long gone before the Phillies pick at 107. Rivera I assume will still be there

        1. Those D1 rankings are only for college players. Their projected round is in parenthesis. They believe Campbell is a 4th rounder and Rivera is a 7th rounder.

      1. According to Rob Ozga (posted above), Phillies would only pick Madrigal if they felt he was a long term SS. Apparently, about half the Phillies FO/scouting staff feels he can handle SS.

          1. Personally I think Harper is a better fit (lefty power bat) if I had to choose.

          2. Manny Machado could start his Phillies career playing some SS, but will spend most of his career as a 3Bman.

  24. One more call for anybody with a BA subscription … Can you please tell me where Gage Canning, Hogan Harris, Aaron Hernandez, Josh Breaux, Elijah Cabell, Billy Price and Bryce Montes De Oca are listed on the BA 500 for the draft ?


    Fangraphs next to last mock will be posted today.
    There will be final one Monday as well.

    1. Hinkie, I’ve been waiting all day for Eric L and Kiley to release their latest mock. What up?

  26. With VMart and Anibel off the books this offseason, I can see DET doing an accelerated rebuild.

    One scenario I can see if DET and PHI talking about the 1.3 pick to acquire Michael Fullmer. DET will draft Mize at 1.1 as the ace replacement of Fullmer then ask the Phils to draft 1.3 the best position player they like and complete a trade at the deadline.

    So it can be:

    Fullmer for PTBNL (which is the 1.3 pick) with some minor pieces on both sides.

    1. kurdt with the money equal. What nut would want to live in Detroit. its a toilet

  27. 8mark … it’s now up (Fangraphs mock). Looks like they suggest the Phillies try to pull off the same plan I’ve posted numerous times over the past couple of months. Make Mize your entire draft ! In other words, offer Casey Mize a well over slot offer. Detroit would then have to match the Phillies offer and give up 1-1 team’s usual strategy to save money with their first pick so they can draft/sign high ceiling HS prospects in rounds two and beyond. McDaniel/Longenhagen believes if Mize gets past Detroit, he’ll make it to the Phillies. Under this plan the Phillies wouldn’t be able to draft/sign any upside HS’ers themselves later in the draft, but that’s ok. The Phillies farm system is deep. They can withstand it for a near MLB ready stud pitcher who will be cheap and under team control as the club competes for WS titles.

    I have another idea that I will post later tonight (or tomorrow) when I get some time.


    1. Yes Hinkie but it’s alot less likely . Bohm is there pick ,Mize will have to fall that’s a big if .

    1. Madrigal went 3 for 5 (including a double), and 4 RBI’s as Oregon State hammered Northwestern State 9-3. Madrigal is now slashing .403/.464/.573.

      BTW … I believe you can still see the replay of the game (you can even fast forward to Madrigal’s AB’s) by clicking on link I posted above.

      1. Hinkie I looked up north western state. I never heard of that school. They play teams like gramling penn. niclols state. are they major baseball schools.???

        1. rocco … just like the men’s basketball tournament. If you win your conference (no matter how small it may be), you qualify for the baseball field of 64. The only thing I know about Northwestern State is they’re from Louisiana, and their starting pitcher was LH with a pause in his delivery (like you see from a lot of Japanese hurlers)

  28. If the Phillies draft him ,Madrigal will be trade bait . I just don’t see a spot for him . 2nd base is full x 2 . The Phillies might go after Machado at SS . Kingery showing he can play SS too . Then there’s Jp, Franco, Gamboa, etc. Hoskins is in LF , Herrera in CF. All these players are young and improving . Madrigal must show some kind of HR Power with wooden bats . I’m also want to see him get at least 500 minor league at bats in one season to see if he wears down.

    1. Tim … disagree. If the Phillies are picking a player to trade this winter, it most likely will be a high ceiling HSP. Someone like Matt Liberatore or Carter Stewart.

    2. Tim, value is value. That’s why the BPA is always the best option regardless of position/profile. Trade later if necessary. It’s not like buying bad fruit that you can’t redeem.

      1. If he’s the best player teams today, want the Torres and Albies of the world. 2 nd baseman who can hit 25 plus home runs while still hitting .300 .

          1. Let me give it a go.
            Point one: If Madrigal is the BPA….but why!.. he has no power
            Point two: Teams want 2nd basemen nowadays with power, case in point Ozzie Albies and Gleyber Torres, who also have a hit tool like Madrigal.

    3. if madrigal is that good and moves fast thru system he will replace Cesar. my man cesar

  29. Regarding the possibility of Mize dropping, it sounds more like more speculation by Eric L and Kiley. If the Phillies have been in touch with Mize’s camp (which they say there has been no evidence of) to offer an overslot, then it’s highly unlikely he falls. If Detroit blinks at Mize’s bonus demands, and SF passes because they want to underslot their higher picks (as reported) then it becomes more likely. However, how likely is it that Klentak employs a creative approach here? But then I wonder if, since there has been no move to acquire competitive balance pick(s), are the Phillies placing less focus on the draft, more on international signings and simply looking to buy/trade for the big bats.

    1. Your right but Eric L in His chat said Bohm to Phillies he doesn’t believe in the rumors going around.

  30. Last season LSU eliminated Oregon State from the CWS. Last night was payback time. Nick Madrigal went 2 for 4 (including a HR), 1 BB, 3 R, 1 RBI as the Beavers put a beatdown on the Tigers in their NCAA regional contest.

  31. USA Sports Top Five:….Nick Shnider of DraftSite.com

    1. Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn: Undrafted out of high school, Mize turned himself into the clear No. 1 choice with a spectacular junior season at Auburn. He has great command of four plus pitches most notably his cutter and split-changeup. Barring a late-season injury, Mize will be the first name off the board…Height, weight: 6-3, 220…..Could go: No. 1 to the Tigers. Detroit has been searching for an ace since the departure of Max Scherzer after 2014.

    2. Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech: Bart has shown the ability to hit for average, on top of his impressive power potential. Scouts have been overwhelmed by his raw athleticism behind the plate as well…..Height, weight: 6-3, 225….Could go: No. 2 to the San Francisco Giants, giving them a succession plan for Buster Posey.

    3. Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State: Bohm, who hits for average and power, has also improved his patience at the plate since last season. Defensively, he could still use some work, but his bat can’t be overlooked…..Height, weight: 6-5, 220….
    Could go: No. 3 to the Phillies as they have the arms but need a slugger, or No. 6 to the Mets

    4. Nick Madrigal, 2B-SS, Oregon State: Madrigal is easily one of the best players in this draft. After starting the year with an injury, he is back pounding the ball. He also has good athleticism and could show off during a long postseason run with Oregon State….Height, weight: 5-8, 165……Could go: Between third and seventh overall, but No. 4 to the White Sox makes sense.

    5. Brady Singer, RHP, Florida: Singer’s recent demotion to the second overall pitching prospect is simply because of the soaring stock of Mize. His best pitch is his 95-96-mph fastball, which has great action jumping in on right-handed batters. His plus slider and above-average change-up make for a tremendous portfolio…..Height, weight: 6-5, 210…..Could go: Between second and fifth, but here is the best fit for a Reds team desperate for a future ace. Cincinnati would be wise to pair Singer with last year’s prized pick, Hunter Greene.


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