2018 Draft Discussion: May 13th

2018 Draft

This is the Phuture Phillies 2018 Draft Discussion for comments about the UPCOMING draft.

(Hinkie, I just could not bring myself to deprive you of this forum for your draft observations.  The AAC tournament will be at Spectrum Field May 22-27.  I have tickets.  Let me now if there is anyone to watch in addition to USF’s Shane McClanahan.)

The Phillies have the third overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second and third round picks when they signed free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.

Their total bonus pool is only $8,858, 500.  Their total was reduced by over $2.25M of slot money with the two picks they lost.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:       3  – $6,947,500
  •   4th:   107 –    $522,900
  •   5th:   137 –    $390,600
  •   6th:   167 –    $292,700
  •   7th:   197 –    $228,000
  •   8th:   227 –    $180,600
  •   9th:   257 –    $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –    $142,600

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.

118 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: May 13th”

  1. Will Klentak really enter the draft with NO picks between rounds 1 and 4? This wouldn’t be such a burning question if the organization wasn’t “congested” at certain positions. OR is the FOs view on building the system through the draft shifting or changing? I guess we have 3 weeks to find out.

  2. Pretty much every draft has us taking Alec Bohm. And when there is this strong of a consensus for such a high pick, it usually is their guy. I have never seen him play, but looking at his numbers, there are some good things and some concerning things.

    http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=202239

    First, the positive:
    – a sub 10% k rate is great
    – a 3:2 walk to K ratio is really good.
    – his power has increased every year. Obviously he has a big frame at 6-5. So he is adding muscle which is good.

    Now the concerning things in his stats
    – 11 homers (although still many games left) is a bit pedestrian. As a comp, Kris Bryant hit 31 homers his Junior season. And he did that with a 21% walk rate.
    – his batting average indicates a hit tool that is not special. He hit only .305 both his freshman and sophomore seasons. Keep in mind that is with a metal bat. Against a lot of pitchers who will not sniff minor league ball. So it is not great. It is up this year to .339. As a comp, Bryant hit .365, .366 and .329 his three college seasons.

    I am not a scout. Don’t pretend to be a scout. I just look at stats to comp players. The stats indicate Bohm is a good but not Elite prospect.

    1. Interesting V1, that’s exactly what I did last week with Sixto. Looking at stats, comparing at approximately same age. No more, no less. You jumped all over me. Very interesting.

      1. Fair question/comment. Pitchers are different than hitters. Pitchers always develop secondary stuff later. Hit tool doesn’t develop. You either can barrel a ball by age 21 or you can’t. In the case of Sixto, his scouting reports are exceptional. His fastball is 80 grade and his command is 60/70. And reports on his secondary stuff are very encouraging. But fair of you to point out that I may have been harsh. My apologies.

    2. I saw him one game. My concern was his average. A lot of people have to realize imo, that hitting just over 300 against that kind of pitching is a big concern.

    3. Bohm….defense for third is average to poor based on scouting reports. Run tool ….very poor. But hit and power tools…plus.

      1. That is encouraging. I would love to read the reports if you can share them. His stats don’t say plus but good to hear about reports saying that. I watched some YouTube videos on him and he is certainly a big boy. Likely natural raw power that hasn’t shown up yet in games.

        3. Evaluators are consistent in their love for Bohm’s bat. They’re split on his glove.

          * Keith Law: He’s big for third base but moves well for his size and shows a plus arm.
          * The team of McDaniel & Longenhagen: Bohm has the hands, arm, and athleticism to handle third
          * Frankie Piliere (formerly of D1 Baeball.com): while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first.
          * Rob Ozga (The Baseball Draft Report): The increasing likelihood he’ll be able to hang at third for at least a few years into his pro career has helped raise his stock as much as anything he’s done offensively.

            1. rocco … TBH, they’ve all hit and missed on different prospects. Also, while each of them gets out to see guys in person, a lot of their opinions are also based on feedback they get from other scouts/evaluators. If you put a gun to my head, I’d probably pick Law and Piliere as the two I’d trust as evaluators maybe just a little more than the rest of the group. But … they’re all good.

    4. I couldn’t agree more. He’s barely hitting .300 in a metal bat college conference and really only facing “elite” pitching one night a week.

      1. Just to play devil’s advocate … you could have said the same thing about Kris Bryant before the 2013 draft. Bryant hit .329 in the WCC at Univ of San Diego for his junior season. Bohm’s at .330, and the AAC is a much better conference than the WCC. IIRC, the AAC is statistically the third best conference in America this year.
        Bryant easily outslugs Bohm, but I’m just using the markers (barely hitting .300, metal bat, conference, faces elite pitching one night a week) you posted above.

        1. Terrible devils advocate example.

          Bryant hit .360 for both his freshman and sophomore season. The small sample size of his junior year batting average being down to .330 means nothing. Add in Bryant’s 31 homers and 21% walk rate and it is not even close.

  3. Its interesting how, over the last few years, the drafts seem to have a lot of depth but fewer and fewer consensus elite prospects at the top. NOT like the nationals where geniuses taking Strasburg or harper. everyone had them going number 1.
    atleast with haseley and now potentially Bohn, this is where they are slotted by most experts..
    in a good draft, the 3rd pick wouldn’t have that many question marks

    1. Bohm essentially sounds like Maikel Franco without the arm and maybe a tad more athleticism. Is anyone else getting that from this article?

    2. So, you meant that a few years ago the Astros were right in drafting Mark Appel instead of Kris Bryant?

      Get the guy who is the best freaking player and, by the way, they shouldn’t draft a HS bat because they aren’t good at doing that (ever really).

      1. This would be a valid argument if there was a Kris Bryant available in this draft and as v1 said above – there isn’t.

  6. Jim … Alec Bohm will be playing in that AAC tournament.
    This weekend, Bohm faced Shane McClanahan in game 1 of the Wichita State – USF series. Bohm grounded out three times (all three balls were hit hard) against McClanahan. Overall, it was a horrible showing for the USF “ace”. He lasted just 3 innings (86 P), allowed 6 R’s on 6 H’s, 5 BB’s, and just 4 K’s. Turns out he was dealing with a blister. Bohm went berzerk on the Bulls BP. He walked once and homered twice. For the weekend, Bohm was 4 for 15 (1 triple, 3 HR’s), 6 R’s, 5 RBI’s, 2 BB’s, 1 K. He also committed two more errors (now up to 13 this season). Bohm is now slashing .330/.433/.608, 14 HR’s. I’ve posted highlights from Friday night’s game (the McClanahan game). It has no audio. Bohm (#18) homers at the 1:54 and 3:00 marks.

    Nick Madrigal looked good against Stanford. He went 4 for 11 (2 doubles, 1 triple), 4 R’s, 3 RBI’s, 3 BB’s, 1 K. For the season, Madrigal is now .438/.490/.607.

    Joey Bart was in action against Virginia (Adam Haseley’s alma mater). Bart went 3 for 7 (13th HR), 3 R’s, 2 RBI’s, 2 BB’s, 3 K’s. He’s now .364/.473/.621 this year.

    Casey Mize is human. Against Ole Miss this weekend, Mize went 5 IP (82 P), 6 R, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K. None of that should do anything to deter Detroit from drafting Mize at 1-1.

    And … Brady Singer was his steady self: 7 IP (105 P), 1 R, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K’s vs Georgia.

  7. Yes – they should draft pitching. They have not demonstrated an ability to correctly evaluate hitters. However, the org as a whole does a nice job with pitchers. Run with your strengths!

  8. I’d play it safe and go with Singer. You know what you are getting with him (a very good pitcher) Too many question marks with Bohm. They shouldn’t be drafting this high again. This is their last chance to draft a top college arm in the first round. I think it would be a mistake not to draft the “best player available”

  10. Best Player Available. The Phillies out smarted themselves taking Moniak so they could also sign Gowdey (it’s still early but how has that worked out so far?) where they could have just taken the best player available and drafted Nick Senzel. I’m not a scout but I’d have to believe Singer is a better player than Bohm.

    1. Without question. Proven arm in arguably the toughest baseball conference in the entire country. And to boot he has performed on his levels biggest stage in the CWS. No shot in the world Bohm is better than Singer. Bohm posting solid numbers, but not lottery pick numbers. Plus he does not profile with 4 or 5 tools. He has 2 above average (not elite) tools. Drafting him as a 3rd baseman is a pipe dream. Arm, overall defense, and foot speed are lacking. And to me, .300 in the American Athletic Conference is not plus hit tool even though batting average isn’t always the most optimal indicator.

    2. Senzel was not the clear BPA, but was one of a handful of guys that could have legitimately been the 1:1 pick.

      So far it hasn’t worked out, but the Phillies strategy to save money with Moniak in order to overslept Gowdy in the 2nd round made a lot of sense in that draft landscape.

  11. Phils have enough 1st baseman, take Singer, He is similar to Nola when he was in college and look at him now after added strength in his legs. I think Singer will be very similar.

  12. Singer and Madrigal for me. I have seen nothing that would dissuade me from Singer and Madrigal is the best hitter.

    1. I get that a small guy who projects as a 2B doesn’t fit a Phillies need, but Madrigal IS the best hitter in the draft and warrants serious consideration from the Phillies for no other reason.

      1. bak425 … you are correct. After Mize, Madrigal is the BPA. He’d be my pick.

  13. I am leaning towards Bart being the best selection unless Alfaro continues to have games like yesterday’s Met contest. And I don’t mean the 3 hits, rather the defense and throwing.

    1. Tim…I don’t believe it…..I agree with you.
      And i like the name “Alec”…has a nice ring to it.
      And yes, Cape Cod proves he is good with the wood.

      2. Romus thats it, you are in agreement with Tim? Those big women are going to your head. M8 you never agreed with Tim, no one agrees with Tim. Stop going to weight watchers to find women. you brain is going soft. hit the gym

        1. Wait I thought that went ” no one ever agree’s with Roccum” .lol btw ” I’d rather have a good putter “.

      3. Wait agreed with me. You have Herrera, not do much on Hoskins or ToJo . I’ll still take Judge over Hoskins any day.JP I’ve lost alot of faith in him at the plate. We’re on the same page about Hall .

  15. Hinkie, Are there any negatives about Liberatore other than he is a HS SP? Jim Bowden’s article just listed him as the #2 available SP, ahead of Singer, and called his ceiling “unlimited.”.

  16. Again, that is my choice. liberatore. i think the best one to take for the future besides mize. go for it.

  17. Alex Bohm…scouting report MLB.com
    Hit: 55 Power: 55 Run: 35 Arm: 50 Field: 45 Overall: 55….Coming into 2018, scouts were divided as to which of Wichita State’s two potential first-round position players was better. Greyson Jenista has more all-around ability and won the Cape Cod League MVP award last summer, but Bohm posted better numbers there and does a better job of tapping into his considerable power potential. Though Jenista has had a good junior season, Bohm has been great and settled the argument, thrusting himself into consideration as a top-five-overall pick. Bohm manages the strike zone very well and makes consistent hard contact from the right side of the plate. He doesn’t strike out as much as Jenista, has an edge in bat speed and his stroke is more geared to generate power at this point. He understands that he doesn’t have to sell out to hit home runs, so he doesn’t. Bohm doesn’t offer much when he’s outside of the batter’s box, however. Though he has worked diligently to improve at third base, he lacks quickness and range, his hands are just fair and his arm is only average. He’ll probably wind up at first base but has the offensive upside to profile there.

    Kris Bryant…scouting report MLB.com circa 2013
    Hit: 4/5 Power: 5/7 Run: 4/4| Arm: 6/6 Field: 4/5 Overall: 4/6 …..Teams looking for the best power college bat in the class may not have to look further than San Diego. Bryant has been an excellent performer in a weak college conference, but he also led Team USA this summer in slugging percentage. He has easy plus power, maybe more, with the ability to hit the ball out to all fields. He also has a plus arm, and while some feel he’ll have to move to first in the future, others feel he has the actions, arm and power bat to profile well at the hot corner. He’s also shown the ability to play a corner outfield spot during his junior season. There is a good amount of swing and miss to his game, but the team that feels he’ll hit enough will likely take his power bat off the board fairly early in the Draft.

    1. Here’s a very thorough scouting report on Alec Bohm from last fall after Bohm’s performance on the Cape. It was written by Frankie Piliere (formerly of D1 Baseball.com, and scout for the Rangers, and now a scout for the Mariners):

      Alec Bohm, 3b/1b, Wichita State (2018)
      It was the year of the Shocker in the Cape Cod League, as two of the league’s most feared sluggers came from Wichita State. And while Greyson Jenista’s game may offer up a little more variety in terms of physical tools, it was Bohm that took the league by storm with his lethal righthanded bat and extremely functional hit tool. The physically imposing 6-foot-5, 225 righty slugger hit .358/.399/.513 on the summer for Falmouth, mashing five home runs along the way. Perhaps his most impressive statistic, however, was his 12.7% strikeout rate. For a hitter of his size, length, and power that’s an incredibly strong stat. And, given that it’s consistent with what he’s done at school, it’s a stat that will allow him to play into early first round conversations.
      With his extra-long frame, Bohm is bound to have some length to his swing. So how is he able to maintain such a contact heavy approach without sacrificing his plus power? Take his showdown with Logan Gilbert in mid-July as an example of how he does it. After losing his first battle with the Stetson righthander, going down on a good sequence of curveballs and a high fastball, Bohm fought off some tough pitches and got himself into a 3-2 count where he knew he’d see a fastball in his second at-bat. Gilbert left a fastball slightly elevated over the outside part of the plate and Bohm muscled one to the opposite field gap off the top of the right-center-field fence. Bohm was vulnerable to Gilbert’s elite velocity on the inner third,but his approach is so sound that he was able to keep battling until he had a pitch he could extend on and drive. It’s the approach, the calmness, and the ability to recognize pitches out of a pitcher’s hand that separates Bohm as a hitter. No hitter looked more relaxed in the box on the Cape. He almost never chased a pitch out of the zone, and he knew just when to take a strike he couldn’t handle and wait for a pitch to drive. There may not be a power hitter in the 2018 draft class with a more advanced approach.
      While the length to Bohm’s swing will always be there, he has above-average bat speed and high level barrel control we don’t normally see from a hitter of his size and power. He can mishit a ball and drive it out to center and right-center, and he looks in that direction unless a pitcher makes a mistake inside. When that happens, he’s capable of hitting monster home runs to left field. This is a hitter who doesn’t need to over-swing to generate plus power. He’s a below average runner, and while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first. But, even so his potent bat and advanced approach could carry him to a first round draft choice.

    2. Tried posting this already, but it’s awaiting moderation (I’m assuming because of it’s length). I’ll post it in two parts, and Jim you can just trash the one waiting moderation.

      Here’s a very thorough scouting report on Alec Bohm from last fall after Bohm’s performance on the Cape. It was written by Frankie Piliere (formerly of D1 Baseball.com, and scout for the Rangers, and now a scout for the Mariners):

      Alec Bohm, 3b/1b, Wichita State (2018)
      It was the year of the Shocker in the Cape Cod League, as two of the league’s most feared sluggers came from Wichita State. And while Greyson Jenista’s game may offer up a little more variety in terms of physical tools, it was Bohm that took the league by storm with his lethal righthanded bat and extremely functional hit tool. The physically imposing 6-foot-5, 225 righty slugger hit .358/.399/.513 on the summer for Falmouth, mashing five home runs along the way. Perhaps his most impressive statistic, however, was his 12.7% strikeout rate. For a hitter of his size, length, and power that’s an incredibly strong stat. And, given that it’s consistent with what he’s done at school, it’s a stat that will allow him to play into early first round conversations.

      1. Part II

        With his extra-long frame, Bohm is bound to have some length to his swing. So how is he able to maintain such a contact heavy approach without sacrificing his plus power? Take his showdown with Logan Gilbert in mid-July as an example of how he does it. After losing his first battle with the Stetson righthander, going down on a good sequence of curveballs and a high fastball, Bohm fought off some tough pitches and got himself into a 3-2 count where he knew he’d see a fastball in his second at-bat. Gilbert left a fastball slightly elevated over the outside part of the plate and Bohm muscled one to the opposite field gap off the top of the right-center-field fence. Bohm was vulnerable to Gilbert’s elite velocity on the inner third,but his approach is so sound that he was able to keep battling until he had a pitch he could extend on and drive. It’s the approach, the calmness, and the ability to recognize pitches out of a pitcher’s hand that separates Bohm as a hitter. No hitter looked more relaxed in the box on the Cape. He almost never chased a pitch out of the zone, and he knew just when to take a strike he couldn’t handle and wait for a pitch to drive. There may not be a power hitter in the 2018 draft class with a more advanced approach.
        While the length to Bohm’s swing will always be there, he has above-average bat speed and high level barrel control we don’t normally see from a hitter of his size and power. He can mishit a ball and drive it out to center and right-center, and he looks in that direction unless a pitcher makes a mistake inside. When that happens, he’s capable of hitting monster home runs to left field. This is a hitter who doesn’t need to over-swing to generate plus power. He’s a below average runner, and while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first. But, even so his potent bat and advanced approach could carry him to a first round draft choice.

      2. Gonna’ have to post in three parts. Still too long.

        Part II

        With his extra-long frame, Bohm is bound to have some length to his swing. So how is he able to maintain such a contact heavy approach without sacrificing his plus power? Take his showdown with Logan Gilbert in mid-July as an example of how he does it. After losing his first battle with the Stetson righthander, going down on a good sequence of curveballs and a high fastball, Bohm fought off some tough pitches and got himself into a 3-2 count where he knew he’d see a fastball in his second at-bat. Gilbert left a fastball slightly elevated over the outside part of the plate and Bohm muscled one to the opposite field gap off the top of the right-center-field fence. Bohm was vulnerable to Gilbert’s elite velocity on the inner third,but his approach is so sound that he was able to keep battling until he had a pitch he could extend on and drive. It’s the approach, the calmness, and the ability to recognize pitches out of a pitcher’s hand that separates Bohm as a hitter. No hitter looked more relaxed in the box on the Cape. He almost never chased a pitch out of the zone, and he knew just when to take a strike he couldn’t handle and wait for a pitch to drive. There may not be a power hitter in the 2018 draft class with a more advanced approach.

        1. Part III

          While the length to Bohm’s swing will always be there, he has above-average bat speed and high level barrel control we don’t normally see from a hitter of his size and power. He can mishit a ball and drive it out to center and right-center, and he looks in that direction unless a pitcher makes a mistake inside. When that happens, he’s capable of hitting monster home runs to left field. This is a hitter who doesn’t need to over-swing to generate plus power. He’s a below average runner, and while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first. But, even so his potent bat and advanced approach could carry him to a first round draft choice.

          1. Part III isn’t posting. After looking over it, I’m thinking the a word that rhymes with “misfit” may be the problem (just a guess). So I’ll try to fix that and post Part III again. Jim, you can get rid of anything awaiting moderation.

            Part III

            While the length to Bohm’s swing will always be there, he has above-average bat speed and high level barrel control we don’t normally see from a hitter of his size and power. He can miss hitting (hopefully that cures the posting problem) a ball and drive it out to center and right-center, and he looks in that direction unless a pitcher makes a mistake inside. When that happens, he’s capable of hitting monster home runs to left field. This is a hitter who doesn’t need to over-swing to generate plus power. He’s a below average runner, and while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first. But, even so his potent bat and advanced approach could carry him to a first round draft choice.

        2. Part III isn’t posting. After looking over it, I’m thinking the word “mishit” may be the problem (just a guess). So I’ll try to fix that and post Part III again. Jim, you can get rid of anything awaiting moderation.

          Part III

          While the length to Bohm’s swing will always be there, he has above-average bat speed and high level barrel control we don’t normally see from a hitter of his size and power. He can miss hitting (hopefully that cures the posting problem) a ball and drive it out to center and right-center, and he looks in that direction unless a pitcher makes a mistake inside. When that happens, he’s capable of hitting monster home runs to left field. This is a hitter who doesn’t need to over-swing to generate plus power. He’s a below average runner, and while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first. But, even so his potent bat and advanced approach could carry him to a first round draft choice.

        3. Bohm’s plate approach could be very similar to Rhys’. …that is, he will and can make the adjustments when he needs to.
          In close to 700 PAs in college, a K rate of less than 12% is excellent (BB of 10%) and also since after 450PAs from his freshmen and sophomore years it still stayed in that low range

  18. After reading a comment or two suggesting college pitchers are safer than college bats, I quickly went through the 2000 thru 2015 drafts. It’s not even close. When using a top five pick, you generally do better picking college bats over college arms. When you draft an arm, you not only have to worry about the pitcher’s college performance translating to MLB, but you have to deal with the very real issue of arm injuries. College bats are also safer because they can be moved to a different position if he outgrows or can’t handle his collegiate position. A classic example of this came in 2001. Mark Pryor was drafted at 1-2 and Mark Teixeira was selected at 1-5. Pryor had four really good years before he blew out his arm and saw his career come to an end. Teixeira was drafted as a 3Bman. He moved to 1B as a pro and enjoyed a 14 year career there. Bottom line: Pryor career 16.6 WAR, Teixeira 51.8 career WAR.
    Obviously, there are exceptions. However, in general, there is no doubt … college arms are more risky than college bats. In addition, Brady Singer seems to be the pitcher most of you want at 1-3 (assuming Casey Mize is already gone). Singer already is saddled with questions about arm health. Toronto chose not to sign Singer after using a second round pick on him three years ago because of a post draft MRI. In his defense, Singer made all of his starts at Florida, but … is he an arm injury waiting to happen ?

  19. I know this is the wrong place, but did I miss a post about removing the ability to comment on the Daily MILB post?

  20. J2 will be here soon. Any profiles/projections/scouting reports on likely Phillies signee Starlyn Castillo?

    1. One is MLB.com’s:
      Starlyn Castillo| Rank: 8 Pos: P Age: 16 DOB: 02/24/2002
      Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6’0″ Weight: 210 lb.Watch
      Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 Slider: 55| Changeup: 50| Control: 50
      …. fastball has been clocked at 97 mph and many scouts believe he has the best arm in the class. Whether he is the best overall pitcher is up for debate.
      Castillo’s fastball usually sits in the 93-96 mph range and he has an emerging changeup and slider. Like many young prospects with a strong arm, Castillo can sometimes overthrow his pitches up in the strike zone, but he’s working on his command. He’s still learning how to mix all of his pitches and command the zone.
      Castillo has a reputation for being a competitive and extremely confident pitcher. He is fearless, which means like many pitchers his age, he is still learning how to channel his emotions on the mound. The talented pitcher will do well once he enters a team’s academy and receives daily instruction.Castillo is from Pimentel, Dominican Republic, and trains with Luis Pereira. The Phillies are the front-runners to sign him.

        2. 8 mark pls. don’t give him a big head, He already has a big ego now a big head pretty soon he will only talk to royalty

  21. Joey Bart and Nick Madrigal were in action for rare Monday night games last night.
    Georgia Tech lost to Virginia, but Bart was impressive. The Yellow Jackets’ catcher went 2 for 3, with a BB & HBP. Both of his hits were HR’s (14th & 15th this season). Bart is now slashing .364/473/.621.

    Oregon State was 2 touchdowns and a field goal better than the Univ of San Diego (Kris Bryant’s alma mater). The final score was 23 – 6. Nick Madrigal played about half the game for the Beavers, and did what he always does … get on base and score runs. Madrigal was 2 for 3. He also walked, scored 2 runs, and knocked in another couple. The diminutive 2Bman is now sitting at .446/.505/.609. Sign me up !!!

    Check out Madrigal’s exaggerated (Jose Altuve-like) leg kick from this AB vs LSU in last year;s CWS.

    1. Hinkie–do you think Madrigal will develop in-game power?That seems to be his only “weakness”. His hit too is obviously there, and the comps to Altuve are to be expected given their similar profiles, but, without the power, is he still worthy of a 1.3 selection over Bart?

      I know Madrigal is your pick, but from what I read the Phillies really like Bohm. The more I read about him, however, the less I like, for reasons others have already stated. When you compare Bohm to 3B who were recently drafted that high–Manny Machado and Kris Bryant come to mind–he doesn’t look nearly as good. How disappointed should we be if we ended up taking him?

      1. I think Madrigal could hit 10 HR’s per season. I wouldn’t dwell too much on the HR’s because he should chip in up to another 40 doubles and triples at maturity.

  23. If his profile is Franco, then he is not the BPA. Forgetting Pitching for a moment, I want Madrigal or Bart over Bohm.

    1. I don’t know if that’s his profile. That’s my take based on the scouting reports I’ve read. Perhaps he can make the adjustments at the plate that Franco has struggled to make. I’m simply connecting the: a.) Low BB/K rates; b.) Plus power and hit tool; c.) unathletic 3B eyed for eventual move to 1st.

      Say what you will about Franco, but he’s a big-league 3B who can hit the ball out of the park. If Franco is Bohm’s floor, and he has room to become more, I’d be all for him.

    2. Bart is most likely going to SF. They say the Giants scouted him as heavily as any team scouted any player this season.

  24. Yea but you never know with the Phillies. Bohm just has to keep hitting . A pitcher is going to have to be lights out .

  25. A few things I took from the Fangraphs mock:
    * I sure wish Matt Klentak would trade for a competitive balance pick (or two). This is a really deep draft and the Phils are going to miss out on some good prospects in rounds two and three.
    * The Phillies are serious about collecting and developing LHP. The only prep player they’re connected to at 1-3 is Matt Liberatore. As in the past three years (Falter, Fanti, Stewart, Romero, Young, Lindow, and Mezquita), I believe Almaraz will unearth a couple/few really good JUCO/HS LHP’s next month.
    * The kid I have been hoping to last until the Phillies next pick (4th round) is on the Cubs radar. I love Gage Canning. He reminds me of Lenny Dykstra. According to Spencer Howard’s dad (SWorks14), the Cubs had his son in to Wrigley Field to work him out and were considering him with their 2nd round pick last year. The Phillies beat the Cubs to the punch. I’d love to see Almaraz make it two years in a row, and somehow snag Canning before Theo picks him.

    1. Your points about the competitive balance picks are well taken. This is a way for the Phillies to fill in the gaps caused by what preliminarily appear to be very effective FA signings.

    2. Gage Canning would also be another great name added to our already impressive collection of great names, Hinkie.

      1. 8mark … I just ran into this, and thought about your post (above). Gage Canning is not only a great player (IMO), but … yes … it is a great name. However, he doesn’t even make BA’s top 50 names in college baseball https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-top-50-names-in-college-baseball/
        Gotta’ admit … Itchy Burts is pretty tough to beat. Not even sure how I missed Itchy Burts because I’ve been following Texas A&M Corpus Christi this season because they have a pitcher I’d be very interested in if we had a second round pick. That pitcher’s name is Aaron Hernandez (No. Not that Aaron Hernandez).
        Some of my other favorites from the list:
        Handsome Monica (draft eligible)
        Storme Cooper
        Shaddon Peavyhouse
        Logan Goodnight (draft eligible)

    3. Hinkie……losing the 2nd and 3rd picks (Santana and Arrieta) …doesn’t that limit the Phillies to only a Round B (between 2nd and 3rd rounds) CBA pick?

        1. Most, but not all, trades in the past for CBA picks, usually involve teams wanting pitchers. Phillies have plenty.
          Even to be able to get more international money would be a plus.
          RHP Starlyn Castillo will probably be a million or more alone.

      2. Romus … Klentak can deal for any competitive balance pick (A or B). The thing is … the team will lose it’s second and third picks (because of the Santana and Arrieta signings) no matter what rounds they fall. Here are the possibilities:
        * trade for a comp A = Phillies get back their 3rd round pick (because they would lose that comp A and their 2nd rounder)
        * trade for a comp B = Phillies get back their 3rd round pick (because they would lose their 2nd rounder and that comp B)
        * trade for 2 comp A’s = Phillies get back their 2nd and 3rd rounders (because they would lose both comp A’s)
        * trade for 1 comp A and one comp B = Phillies would keep the comp B and get back their 3rd rounder (because they would lose the comp A and their 2nd rounder)
        * trade for 2 comp B’s = Phillies would keep one comp B and get back their 3rd rounder back (because they would lose their 2nd rounder and the highest comp B)

        A few notes about the above scenarios:
        * no team has ever been able to deal for two comp picks in the same year.
        * assuming Klentak doesn’t become the first to acquire two picks, it makes sense that he would target a comp B selection because it should cost less and would net the same result (Phillies regaining their 3rd rounder).

        The Marlins have always made the most sense as a trade partner. Their farm system stinks and Derek Jeter seems to be running a thrift store down there. If Klentak offers to eat some bad money, that should be good enough to get Jeter to fork over the draft pick.

  26. I think this draft will go after the first .
    1.
    College position players maybe juco players.
    2. Later on the high school arms or hard to sign players.

  28. Hinkie, your information has been tremendously informative, and I want to say Thanks. I agree that Klentak needs to use some of the surplus and get a Comp Balance pick. I enjoyed the story about nabbing Spencer Howard before the Cubs did, let’s do it again.

    1. matt … Gage Canning now at 233 PA’s. He’s slashing .392/.443/.675, 16 doubles, 10 triples, 8 HR’s, Not confident he’ll make it to the top of the fourth round. Klentak will probably have to deal for a comp bal pick. That would net the Phillies their third round pick back, and might be high enough for the Phillies to land Canning.

  29. The top 3 candidates to be selected at 1-3 were all in action tonight.
    Joey Bart had 2 singles and a BB in 5 PA’s. He also knocked in and scored a run in a Georgia Tech win against SE Missouri. Bart now sits at .371/.480/.649 for the season.
    Alec Bohm also had 2 H’s (including a double) and a BB in 5 PA’s. He, too, scored a run and drove in another in a loss at home against Kansas St. He’s now slashing .333/.435/.611.
    Oregon State crushed the Univ of San Diego again 19-6. Nick Madrigal paced the Beavers offense, going 3 for 4 (triple and two opposite field singles). He also walked, scored three runs and knocked in another. Madrigal is now at .446/.505/.609 this season.

  30. Some draft Q&A’s from Kiley McDaniel’s chat today:

    Hinkie: Is Alec Bohm a 3Bman for the long term ?
    Kiley McDaniel: Some say no, I think yes for now, but he has broad shoulders and if I knew he was adding 20 lbs I may say no as well.

    Hinkie: What’s your opinion of Gage Canning ? I see you think the Cubs like him. What round is he likely to go ?
    Kiley McDaniel: Probably 3rd. Solid gap power, easy plus run, CF fit, some contact questions

    Erik: Highest ceiling and floor in this years draft?
    Kiley McDaniel: Floor is Madrigal. Ceiling is tough to say probably one of Alec Bohm, Kyler Murray, Jordyn Adams. Stewart/Liberatore on pitcher side

    Alex: Bart is putting up great numbers at Ga Tech. What would his MLB eta be and what would hold that up more (bat or glove)?
    Kiley McDaniel: late 2019 or 2020? Him and Madrigal should move fast. Bart for me is 45 hit, 55-60 power (65 raw), 40-45 runner, 55-60 glove, 65 arm

    Tom: Matthew liberatore has a chance for 4 plus and plus command? Is that unrealistic?
    Kiley McDaniel: Eh yeah probably. There’s a chance for 3 plus and plus command but even that would be pushing it a bit. I think the 75-90% outcome/realistic upside is something like 60 FB, 65 CB, 55 CH, 50 SL, 55 CMD.

    Chicago White Sox: How would you compare scouting grades of Madrigal & India? Stats wise India has clearly been the superior player this year with the bat, but that obviously only tells a small part of the story.
    Kiley McDaniel: India, for me, is 50 hit, 50 game power (55 raw), 50-55 glove, 55 arm. Probably 3B only, but you could try him at 2B, emergency only at SS and 50 run
    Madrigal is 60 hit, 40-45 game power, 60-70 run, 50 arm, 60 glove at 2B, chance to be average at SS if he gets more reps there but not a slam dunk. And the power could turn into 50 and the hit could turn into 70 depending on what sort of swing/approach he uses
    You could still argue Madrigal is the best prospect in the draft and, for me, India isn’t in the top 10.

    Snapper Bean: Seems like its starting to solidify as 1. Mize 2. Bart 3. Bohm. Agree or disagree?
    Kiley McDaniel: SELL there’s been some recent buzz that this top 3 projection may blow up, which we’re trying to wrap our heads around

    .

    … and that last one is very interesting. Everyone has Bohm mocked to the Phillies. What does Kiley McDaniel mean when he says, “there’s been some recent buzz that this top 3 projection may blow up.”??? Is Detroit looking for a discount selection at 1-1 ? Could this mean Mize slips to the Phillies ? Just speculation (maybe wishful thinking) on my part, we’ll have to wait and see.

    1. I’m encouraged to see that he sees Bohm as a high ceiling player. The more I read about him, the more I want to Phils to pull the trigger.

      Mize falling to the Phils would create an interesting dilemma. A wave of Sanchez, Medina and Mize arriving in Philly to bolster an already contending club is enough to make a phan swoon ….

      1. Yeah, Mike … the “Alec Bohm = highest ceiling prospect” comment got me searching on baseball cube.com for the answer to the question “What king of ceiling could we be talking about?”. If you put your Phillies rose (red) colored glasses on and squint, you could maybe see an Aaron Judge outcome for Alec Bohm. Both are tall, RH power hitting college bats from non power five conferences.
        Bohm jr season at Wichita St .333/.435/.611, .278 ISO, 14 HR’s in 198 AB’s
        Judge jr season at Fresno St .369/.461/.655, .286 ISO, 12 HR’s in 206 AB’s

        Not predicting the next Aaron Judge. Just saying that could be Bohm’s dream come true ceiling.

    2. Hinkie – question: if Mize weren’t selected by Detroit, why wouldn’t SF then pick him at 1-2?

      1. 8mark … for the same reason Detroit would pass: they’d want to swing an under slot deal with their first round pick to go above slot on a high ceiling HS kid(s) in the second (and maybe future) round(s).

    3. Hinkie…agree.
      Detroit may be the wild card.if they pass on Mize then that presents the Phillies with the MIze opportunity.
      Also thinking Giants could go Bart to move Posey out from the plate. But KM’s 45 hit tool for Bart is shades of Alfaro….where as Posey a decade ago had a plus hit tool and not sure how the Giants would take to a guy like that.

      2. Romus … Bart is a plus defender, plus arm, and plus power guy. He may be the only catcher in college baseball who calls his own game (doesn’t get pitch call signs from the dugout). That said, I wouldn’t draft him at 1-3. Catchers are almost as risky as pitchers.

  31. McDaniel also touched on Mickey Mo:

    Hooha: What is wrong with Mickey Moniak? Is he just not that good?
    Kiley McDaniel: Saw him a couple weeks ago. Don’t think the game power is there with this current swing, so he’s more of a contact/defense type with gap to gap power that’s having growing pains

  33. BPS … Law’s mock 2.0 is out this morning. No change for the Phillies. Law says Bohm:
    “It sounds like this is probably Bohm or Bart. I’ve heard Madrigal and Travis Swaggerty are out here.”

    1-1 Tigers … Mize
    1-2 SFG …… Bart
    1-3 Phillies .. Bohm
    1-4 CWS ….. Madrigal
    1-5 Reds ….. Singer
    1-6 Mets …… India
    1-7 Padres .. Carter Stewart
    1-8 Braves .. Nolan Gorman
    1-9 A’s …….. Swaggerty
    1-10 Pirates .. Grayson Rodrigues
    1-11 O’s …….. Matt Liberatore
    1-12 Jays ….. Logan Gilbert
    1-13 Marlins .. Shane McClanahan
    1-14 Mariners. Jarred Kelenic
    1-15 Rangers . Ryan Weathers

    1. Law also doesn’t rule out Tigers and Giants looking to cut under-slot deals at 1-1 and 1-2 … which, IMO, would be Christmas in June for the Phillies. Give me Mize at 1-3 … PLEASE !!!

      From Law:

      1. Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

      Yes, money could always be a factor, but if Mize’s medicals hold up, there isn’t a better option for the Tigers at 1-1. If Detroit does cut a deal, it could be with prep lefty Matthew Liberatore.

      2. San Francisco Giants: Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech

      I’ve heard the Giants’ mix includes Bart, Brady Singer, Alec Bohm and Liberatore for this pick. They might simply see which of those players will cut the best deal with them, allowing them to go over slot at pick 45. I’ve heard Nick Madrigal is out here.

      1. Hinkie….EricL’s chat
        How wide is the gap between Bohm and India in terms of offensive talent?
        Eric L…..
        Full grade of power, at least. India better contact skills.

        1. Romus … also from that chat, more on the possible top 3 shakeup. Just as we speculated, the shakeup would start at 1-1 with Detroit passing on Mize.

          Mark : Yesterday Kiley said the top 3 picks in the draft might get blown up. Can you provide any more details?
          Eric A Longenhagen: Meh. We just think the pack up top is close enough that you can talk yourself out of Mize between his injury history, atypical pitch usage, etc. We’ve been operating under the assumption that he’d go 1 for a while now but all that stuff I just mentioned plus what we know about where Detroit decision makers have been lately indicate that other scenarios are more possible than we’ve discussed up to this point.

          And Kiley McDaniel tweeted this today:

          1. Hinkie….Detroit does have 4/5 premier prospect arms already in their farm, plus Fulmer is sitting there in Detroit already….so they may decide to pass on Mize.
            Madrigal would work well with them I would think.

  35. Perfect Game has released it’s top 1,000 prospects for the MLB draft (in increments of 100). Here is the the top 100 list https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15205
    Lists 200 – 1000 can be found on the right side of the page.
    1 Casey Mize
    2 Nick Madribal
    3 Matt Liberatore
    4 Alec Bohm
    5 Jarred Kelenic
    122 Gage Canning (would make him available at the Phillies 4th round pick #107 overall)

    1. Hinkie….what about Canning do you like?
      His career k rate is 22% and 6% BB rate.
      This season he is at 19% K rate with 9% BB rate.
      His ISO did jump to .283 this season which means he has added some lift but facing freshmen and sophomore pitchers will contribute to that also, but overall siting at .211 for all three years.
      Not even sure his BABiP of .466 would be sustainable or transfer over into pro ball..
      He is in a top conference so that is a plus from his overall hit tool
      I suppose as a fourth round pick it is a lottery ticket of sorts and why not take a chance.
      .

      1. Romus … if his K rate was better (closer to his BB rate), Canning would be a first rounder. I want him in the fourth round (or third round if Klentak deals for a competitive balance pick). The kid is a solid to plus defender in CF. He runs well. And his K rate can be excused some because of the way he drives the ball. He’s an XBH machine.
        If you’re looking for a CF’er who’s going to be drafted around the same point in the draft who has better K and BB rates, you might like DJ Artis of Liberty Univ. He’s got a career K rate of 12.6%, and a career BB rate of 20%. However, Artis isn’t going to give you the slugging numbers Canning will. And … Canning has put up his numbers vs much better competition.
        I like Artis. I love Canning !

        1. yeah…..I guess in th fourth round he really isn’t that bad of a choice if he is still there
          In those middle rounds of the top ten…. HS players have much higher ceilings
          If you can get them to break their college commitments.

        2. Please , please not another lh CF. Phillies have like 50 . They also have Herrera give me RF that can Mash .

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